Individual‐based ecology of coastal birds

Conservation objectives for non‐breeding coastal birds (shorebirds and wildfowl) are determined from their population size at coastal sites. To advise coastal managers, models must predict quantitatively the effects of environmental change on population size or the demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) that determine it. As habitat association models and depletion models are not able to do this, we developed an approach that has produced such predictions thereby enabling policy makers to make evidence‐based decisions. Our conceptual framework is individual‐based ecology, in which populations are viewed as having properties (e.g. size) that arise from the traits (e.g. behaviour, physiology) and interactions of their constituent individuals. The link between individuals and populations is made through individual‐based models (IBMs) that follow the fitness‐maximising decisions of individuals and predict population‐level consequences (e.g. mortality rate) from the fates of these individuals. Our first IBM was for oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus and accurately predicted their density‐dependent mortality. Subsequently, IBMs were developed for several shorebird and wildfowl species at several European sites, and were shown to predict accurately overwinter mortality, and the foraging behaviour from which predictions are derived. They have been used to predict the effect on survival in coastal birds of sea level rise, habitat loss, wind farm development, shellfishing and human disturbance. This review emphasises the wider applicability of the approach, and identifies other systems to which it could be applied. We view the IBM approach as a very useful contribution to the general problem of how to advance ecology to the point where we can routinely make meaningful predictions of how populations respond to environmental change.     

Five questions on ecological speciation addressed with individual‐based simulations

We use an individual‐based simulation model to investigate factors influencing progress toward ecological speciation. We find that environmental differences can quickly lead to the evolution of substantial reproductive barriers between a population colonizing a new environment and the ancestral population in the old environment. Natural selection against immigrants and hybrids was a major contributor to this isolation, but the evolution of sexual preference was also important. Increasing dispersal had both positive and negative effects on population size in the new environment and had positive effects on natural selection against immigrants and hybrids. Genetic divergence at unlinked, neutral genetic markers was low, except when environmental differences were large and sexual preference was present. Our results highlight the importance of divergent selection and adaptive divergence for ecological speciation. At the same time, they reveal several interesting nonlinearities in interactions between environmental differences, sexual preference, dispersal and population size.     

Hybridization selects for prime‐numbered life cycles in Magicicada: An individual‐based simulation model of a structured periodical cicada population

We investigate competition between separate periodical cicada populations each possessing different life‐cycle lengths. We build an individual‐based model to simulate the cicada life cycle and allow random migrations to occur between patches inhabited by the different populations. We show that if hybridization between different cycle lengths produces offspring that have an intermediate life‐cycle length, then predation acts disproportionately to select against the hybrid offspring. This happens because they emerge in low densities without the safety‐in‐numbers provided by either parent population. Thus, prime‐numbered life cycles that can better avoid hybridization are favored. However, we find that this advantage of prime‐numbered cycles occurs only if there is some mechanism that can occasionally synchronize emergence between local populations in sufficiently many patches.     

Maintenance of polygenic sex determination in a fluctuating environment: an individual‐based model

R. A. Fisher predicted that individuals should invest equally in offspring of both sexes, and that the proportion of males and females produced (the primary sex ratio) should evolve towards 1:1 when unconstrained. For many species, sex determination is dependent on sex chromosomes, creating a strong tendency for balanced sex ratios, but in other cases, multiple autosomal genes interact to determine sex. In such cases, the maintenance of multiple sex‐determining alleles at multiple loci and the consequent among‐family variability in sex ratios presents a puzzle, as theory predicts that such systems should be unstable. Theory also predicts that environmental influences on sex can complicate outcomes of genetic sex determination, and that population structure may play a role. Tigriopus californicus, a copepod that lives in splash‐pool metapopulations and exhibits polygenic and environment‐dependent sex determination, presents a test case for relevant theory. We use this species as a model for parameterizing an individual‐based simulation to investigate conditions that could maintain polygenic sex determination. We find that metapopulation structure can delay the degradation of polygenic sex determination and that periods of alternating frequency‐dependent selection, imposed by seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions, can maintain polygenic sex determination indefinitely.     

Is reversing the decline of Asian elephants in North American zoos possible? An individual‐based modeling approach

Demographic models are important tools for assessing population status, diagnosing potential causes of population decline, and comparing management strategies that might change population trajectory. The population of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) maintained in North American zoos has been declining for the past decade, and Wiese ([2000] Zoo. Biol. 19:299–309) predicted a continued decline in the population using an age‐based matrix model. We developed an individual‐based model to further explore the demographic issues of the population. Our model allowed us to quantitatively evaluate the prospects for slowing or reversing the decline given the potential management strategies of improving reproduction, reducing infant mortality, altering birth sex ratio, and recruiting additional individuals from outside the population. Our simulations showed that if current demographic trends continued, the population would continue to decline at 2%/year. It was possible to create sustainable simulations, but these required a large increase in the annual number of births produced. Increasing reproduction was the most effective strategy to slow the decline, whereas other management strategies had the most impact when combined with increases in reproduction. Almost all simulations resulted in large changes in population structure, with increases in the male population and decreases in the female population. Given the population's demographic issues, it will be difficult to either increase the population substantially or sustain it at its current size. Zoo Biol 25:201–218, 2006. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Temporal effects of disturbance on community composition in simulated stage‐structured plant communities

In an era of global environmental change, understanding how disturbance affects the dynamics of ecological communities is crucial. However, few studies have theoretically explored the potential influence of disturbance including both intensity and frequency on compositional change over time in communities with stage structure. A spatially explicit, individual‐based model was constructed incorporating the various demographic responses to disturbance of plants at two different growth stages: seedlings and adults. In the model, we assumed that individuals within each stage were demographically equivalent (neutral) but differed between stages. We simulated a common phenomenon that seedlings suffered more from disturbance such as grazing and fire than adults. We showed how stage‐structured communities of seedlings and adults responded to disturbance with various levels of disturbance frequency and intensity. In “undisturbed” simulations, the relationship between average species abundance (defined here as the total number of individuals divided by species richness) and community composition turnover (measured by the Bray–Curtis similarity index) was asymptotic. However, in strongly “disturbed” simulations with the between‐disturbance intervals greater than one, this relationship became unimodal. Stage‐dependent response to disturbance underlay the above discrepancy between undisturbed and disturbed communities.     

REvoSim: Organism‐level simulation of macro and microevolution

Macroevolutionary processes dictate the generation and loss of biodiversity. Understanding them is a key challenge when interrogating the earth–life system in deep time. Model‐based approaches can reveal important macroevolutionary patterns and generate hypotheses on the underlying processes. Here we present and document a novel model called REvoSim (Rapid Evolutionary Simulator) coupled with a software implementation of this model. The latter is available here as both source code (C++/Qt, GNU General Public License) and as distributables for a variety of operating systems. REvoSim is an individual‐based model with a strong focus on computational efficiency. It can simulate populations of 10⁵–10⁷ digital organisms over geological timescales on a typical desktop computer, and incorporates spatial and temporal environmental variation, recombinant reproduction, mutation and dispersal. Whilst microevolutionary processes drive the model, macroevolutionary phenomena such as speciation and extinction emerge. We present results and analysis of the model focusing on validation, and note a number potential applications. REvoSim can serve as a multipurpose platform for studying both macro and microevolution, and bridges this divide. It will be continually developed by the authors to expand its capabilities and hence its utility.     

The role of plant–mycorrhizal mutualisms in deterring plant invasions: Insights from an individual‐based model

Understanding the factors that determine invasion success for non‐native plants is crucial for maintaining global biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. One hypothesized mechanism by which many exotic plants can become invasive is through the disruption of key plant–mycorrhizal mutualisms, yet few studies have investigated how these disruptions can lead to invader success. We present an individual‐based model to examine how mutualism strengths between a native plant (Impatiens capensis) and mycorrhizal fungus can influence invasion success for a widespread plant invader, Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard). Two questions were investigated as follows: (a) How does the strength of the mutualism between the native I. capensis and a mycorrhizal fungus affect resistance (i.e., native plant maintaining >60% of final equilibrium plant density) to garlic mustard invasion? (b) Is there a non‐linear relationship between initial garlic mustard density and invasiveness (i.e., garlic mustard representing >60% of final equilibrium plant density)? Our findings indicate that either low (i.e., facultative) or high (i.e., obligate) mutualism strengths between the native plant and mycorrhizal fungus were more likely to lead to garlic mustard invasiveness than intermediate levels, which resulted in higher resistance to garlic mustard invasion. Intermediate mutualism strengths allowed I. capensis to take advantage of increased fitness when the fungus was present but remained competitive enough to sustain high numbers without the fungus. Though strong mutualisms had the highest fitness without the invader, they proved most susceptible to invasion because the loss of the mycorrhizal fungus resulted in a reproductive output too low to compete with garlic mustard. Weak mutualisms were more competitive than strong mutualisms but still led to garlic mustard invasion. Furthermore, we found that under intermediate mutualism strengths, the initial density of garlic mustard (as a proxy for different levels of plant invasion) did not influence its invasion success, as high initial densities of garlic mustard did not lead to it becoming dominant. Our results indicate that plants that form weak or strong mutualisms with mycorrhizal fungi are most vulnerable to invasion, whereas intermediate mutualisms provide the highest resistance to an allelopathic invader.     

A joint individual‐based model coupling growth and mortality reveals that tree vigor is a key component of tropical forest dynamics

Tree vigor is often used as a covariate when tree mortality is predicted from tree growth in tropical forest dynamic models, but it is rarely explicitly accounted for in a coherent modeling framework. We quantify tree vigor at the individual tree level, based on the difference between expected and observed growth. The available methods to join nonlinear tree growth and mortality processes are not commonly used by forest ecologists so that we develop an inference methodology based on an MCMC approach, allowing us to sample the parameters of the growth and mortality model according to their posterior distribution using the joint model likelihood. We apply our framework to a set of data on the 20‐year dynamics of a forest in Paracou, French Guiana, taking advantage of functional trait‐based growth and mortality models already developed independently. Our results showed that growth and mortality are intimately linked and that the vigor estimator is an essential predictor of mortality, highlighting that trees growing more than expected have a far lower probability of dying. Our joint model methodology is sufficiently generic to be used to join two longitudinal and punctual linked processes and thus may be applied to a wide range of growth and mortality models. In the context of global changes, such joint models are urgently needed in tropical forests to analyze, and then predict, the effects of the ongoing changes on the tree dynamics in hyperdiverse tropical forests.     

Speciation and the neutral theory of biodiversity

The neutral theory of biodiversity purports that patterns in the distribution and abundance of species do not depend on adaptive differences between species (i.e. niche differentiation) but solely on random fluctuations in population size (“ecological drift”), along with dispersal and speciation. In this framework, the ultimate driver of biodiversity is speciation. However, the original neutral theory made strongly simplifying assumptions about the mechanisms of speciation, which has led to some clearly unrealistic predictions. In response, several recent studies have combined neutral community models with more elaborate speciation models. These efforts have alleviated some of the problems of the earlier approaches, while confirming the general ability of neutral theory to predict empirical patterns of biodiversity. However, the models also show that the mode of speciation can have a strong impact on relative species abundances. Future work should compare these results to diversity patterns arising from non‐neutral modes of speciation, such as adaptive radiations.     

Relative contribution of neutral and deterministic processes in shaping fruit‐feeding butterfly assemblages in Afrotropical forests

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography has gained the status of a quantitative null model for explaining patterns in ecological (meta)communities. The theory assumes that individuals of trophically similar species are functionally equivalent. We empirically evaluate the relative contribution of neutral and deterministic processes in shaping fruit‐feeding butterfly assemblages in three tropical forests in Africa, using both direct (confronting the neutral model with species abundance data) and indirect approaches (testing the predictions of neutral theory using data other than species abundance distributions). Abundance data were obtained by sampling butterflies using banana baited traps set at the forest canopy and understorey strata. Our results indicate a clear consistency in the kind of species or species groups observed at either the canopy or understorey in the three studied communities. Furthermore, we found significant correlation between some flight‐related morphological traits and species abundance at the forest canopy, but not at the understorey. Neutral theory's contribution to explaining our data lies largely in identifying dispersal limitation as a key process regulating fruit‐feeding butterfly community structure. Our study illustrates that using species abundance data alone in evaluating neutral theory can be informative, but is insufficient. Species‐level information such as habitat preference, host plants, geographical distribution, and phylogeny is essential in elucidating the processes that regulate biodiversity community structures and patterns.     

Large‐scale patterns of tree species richness and the metabolic theory of ecology

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) endeavours to explain ecosystem structure and function in terms of the effects of temperature and body size on metabolic rate. In a recent paper (Wang et al., 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 106 , 13388), we tested the MTE predictions of species richness using tree distributions in eastern Asia and North America. Our results supported the linear relationship between log‐transformed species richness and the inverse of absolute temperature predicted by the MTE, but the slope strongly depends on spatial scale. The results also indicate that there are more tree species in cold climate at high latitudes in North America than in eastern Asia, but the reverse is true in warm climate at low latitudes. Qian & Ricklefs (2011, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20 , 362–365) recently questioned our data and some of the analyses. Here we reply to them, and provide further analyses to show that their critiques are primarily based on unsuitable data and subjective conjecture.     

Climate-driven diversity dynamics in plants and plant-feeding insects

The origin of species-rich insect-plant food webs has traditionally been explained by diversifying antagonistic coevolution between plant defences and herbivore counter-defences. However, recent studies combining paleoclimatic reconstructions with time-calibrated phylogenies suggest that variation in global climate determines the distribution, abundance and diversity of plant clades and, hence, indirectly influences the balance between speciation and extinction in associated herbivore groups. Extant insect communities tend to be richest on common plant species that have many close relatives. This could be explained either by climate-driven diffuse cospeciation between plants and insects, or by elevated speciation and reduced extinction in herbivore lineages associated with expanding host taxa (resources). Progress in paleovegetation reconstructions in combination with the rapidly increasing availability of fossil-calibrated phylogenies provide means to discern between these alternative hypotheses. In particular, the 'Diffuse cospeciation' scenario predicts closely matching main diversification periods in plants and in the insects that feed upon them, while the 'Resource abundance-dependent diversification' hypothesis predicts that both positive and negative responses of insect diversity are lagged in relation to host-plant availability. The dramatic Cenozoic changes in global climate provide multiple possibilities for studying the mechanisms by which climatic shifts may drive diversity dynamics in plants and insect herbivores.     

Individual differences in behaviour explain variation in survival: a meta‐analysis

Research focusing on among‐individual differences in behaviour (‘animal personality’) has been blooming for over a decade. Central theories explaining the maintenance of such behavioural variation posits that individuals expressing greater “risky” behaviours should suffer higher mortality. Here, for the first time, we synthesize the existing empirical evidence for this key prediction. Our results did not support this prediction as there was no directional relationship between riskier behaviour and greater mortality; however there was a significant absolute relationship between behaviour and survival. In total, behaviour explained a significant, but small, portion (5.8%) of the variance in survival. We also found that risky (vs. “shy”) behavioural types live significantly longer in the wild, but not in the laboratory. This suggests that individuals expressing risky behaviours might be of overall higher quality but the lack of predation pressure and resource restrictions mask this effect in laboratory environments. Our work demonstrates that individual differences in behaviour explain important differences in survival but not in the direction predicted by theory. Importantly, this suggests that models predicting behaviour to be a mediator of reproduction‐survival trade‐offs may need revision and/or empiricists may need to reconsider their proxies of risky behaviours when testing such theory.