Latitudinal variation in the degree of crassulacean acid metabolism in Puya chilensis

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) is a photosynthetic pathway found in many plant species from arid and semiarid environments. Few studies aiming to characterise plant species as CAM or C₃ account for inter‐population differences in photosynthetic pathway, often relying on samples taken from herbarium material and/or a single plant or population. This may be especially problematic for species growing under contrasting climate conditions, as is the case for species with a wide geographic range. We used Puya chilensis, a species previously reported as CAM and C₃, to study among‐population variation in expression of the CAM pathway within its distribution range, which spans a significant climate gradient. We carried out a wide sampling scheme, including five populations and a combination of analytical methods (quantification of nocturnal acidification and stable isotope measurements). The study populations of P. chilensis encompass the entire latitudinal distribution range, from semi‐arid to temperate oceanic climates. Our results indicate that CAM decreased with latitude. However, even in the southern (wetter) populations, where δ¹³C values were indicative of C₃ metabolism, we found some nocturnal acidification. We stress the value of using two methods along with the use of samples from different populations, as this allows more reliable conclusions on the photosynthetic pathway for ‘probable’ CAM species that face varying climate conditions within their distribution ranges.     

How prevalent is crassulacean acid metabolism among vascular epiphytes?

The occurrence of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) in the epiphyte community of a lowland forest of the Atlantic slope of Panama was investigated. I hypothesized that CAM is mostly found in orchids, of which many species are relatively small and/or rare. Thus, the relative proportion of species with CAM should not be a good indicator for the prevalence of this photosynthetic pathway in a community when expressed on an individual or a biomass basis. In 0.4 ha of forest, 103 species of vascular epiphytes with 13,099 individuals were found. As judged from the C isotope ratios and the absence of Kranz anatomy, CAM was detected in 20 species (19.4% of the total), which were members of the families Orchidaceae, Bromeliaceae, and Cactaceae. As predicted, the contribution of CAM epiphytes to the total number of individuals and to total biomass (69.6 kg ha^-1) was considerably lower (3.6% or 466 individuals and, respectively, 3.0% or 2.1 kg ha^-1).     

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

AimInvasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora.LocationGlobal.TaxaAsteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.MethodsBased on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the “ecospat” package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.ResultsThe area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m).Main conclusionsMean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.     

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

Biomass production on low‐grade land is needed to meet future energy demands and minimize resource conflicts. This, however, requires improvements in plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) that are beyond conventional C3 and C4 dedicated bioenergy crops. Here we present the first global‐scale geographic information system (GIS)‐based productivity model of two highly water‐efficient crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) candidates: Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficus‐indica. Features of these plants that translate to WUE advantages over C3 and C4 bioenergy crops include nocturnal stomatal opening, rapid rectifier‐like root hydraulic conductivity responses to fluctuating soil water potential and the capacity to buffer against periods of drought. Yield simulations for the year 2070 were performed under the four representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. Simulations on low‐grade land suggest that O. ficus‐indica alone has the capacity to meet ‘extreme’ bioenergy demand scenarios (>600 EJ yr^?1) and is highly resilient to climate change (?1%). Agave tequilana is moderately impacted (?11%). These results are significant because bioenergy demand scenarios >600 EJ yr^?1 could be met without significantly increasing conflicts with food production and contributing to deforestation. Both CAM candidates outperformed the C4 bioenergy crop, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) in arid zones in the latitudinal range 30°S–30°N.     

Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change

Global climate change affects the distributions of ectotherms and may be the cause of several conservation problems, such as great displacement of climatic suitable spaces for species and, consequently, important reductions of the extent of liveable places, threatening the existence of many of them. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to global climate change is linked to features of their climatic niches (such as the relative position of the inhabited localities of each species in the climatic space), and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges (such as the extent of the distributions or altitudinal range inhabited by the species). In order to analyze the pattern of response of Argentine reptiles to global climate change, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares models using species exposure to global climate change as a response variable, and (i) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in the climate space) and (ii) general features of the distribution of species (maximum latitude, altitudinal range, maximum elevation, distributional range and proximity to the most important dispersal barrier) as predictors. Our results suggest that the best way to explain climate change exposure is by combining breadth and position of climatic niche of the species or combining geographic features that are indicators of both niche characteristics. Our best model shows that in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges that also inhabit the highest elevations are the most exposed to the effects of global climate change. In this sense, reptile species from Yungas, Puna and Andes ecoregions could be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We believe that these types of models may represent an interesting tool for determining species and places particularly threatened by the effects of global climate change, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning.     

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.     

The evolutionary potential of an insect invader under climate change*

Although the impacts of climate change and invasive species are typically studied in isolation, they likely interact to reduce the viability of plant and animal populations. Indeed, invasive species, by definition, have succeeded in areas outside of their native range and may therefore have higher adaptive capacity relative to native species. Nevertheless, the genetic architecture of the thermal niche, which sets a limit to the potential for populations to evolve rapidly under climate change, has never been measured in an invasive species in its introduced range. Here, we estimate the genetic architecture of thermal performance in the harlequin beetle (Harmonia axyridis), a Central Asian species that has invaded four continents. We measured thermal performance curves in more than 400 third-generation offspring from a paternal half-sib breeding experiment and analyzed the genetic variance–covariance matrix. We show that while the critical thermal limits in this species have an additive genetic basis, most components of the thermal performance curve have low heritability. Moreover, we found evidence that genetic correlations may constrain the evolution of beetles under climate change. Our results suggest that some invasive species may have limited evolutionary capacity under climate change, despite their initial success in colonizing novel environments.     

Accelerating local extinction associated with very recent climate change

Climate change has already caused local extinction in many plants and animals, based on surveys spanning many decades. As climate change accelerates, the pace of these extinctions may also accelerate, potentially leading to large-scale, species-level extinctions. We tested this hypothesis in a montane lizard. We resurveyed 18 mountain ranges in 2021–2022 after only ~7 years. We found rates of local extinction among the fastest ever recorded, which have tripled in the past ~7 years relative to the preceding ~42 years. Further, climate change generated local extinction in ~7 years similar to that seen in other organisms over ~70 years. Yet, contrary to expectations, populations at two of the hottest sites survived. We found that genomic data helped predict which populations survived and which went extinct. Overall, we show the increasing risk to biodiversity posed by accelerating climate change and the opportunity to study its effects over surprisingly brief timescales.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

Drought-tolerant succulent plants as an alternative crop under future global warming scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO₂ emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO₂. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.     

蝴蝶对全球气候变化响应的研究综述

全球气候变化以及生物对其响应已引起人们的广泛关注。在众多生物中,蝴蝶被公认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的指示物种之一。已有大量的研究结果表明,蝴蝶类群已经在地理分布范围、生活史特性以及生物多样性变化等方面对全球气候变化作出了响应。根据全球范围内蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应的研究资料,尤其是欧美一些长期监测的研究成果,综述了蝴蝶类群在物种分布格局、物候、繁殖、形态特征变化、种群动态以及物种多样性变化等方面对气候变化的响应特征,认为温度升高和极端天气是导致蝴蝶物种分布格局和种群动态变化的主要因素。在此基础上,展望了我国开展蝴蝶类群对气候变化响应方面研究的未来发展趋势。     

Improving species distribution models for climate change studies: variable selection and scale

Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the potential changes in species distributions under climate change scenarios. We suggest that we need to revisit the conceptual framework and ecological assumptions on which the relationship between species distributions and environment is based. We present a simple conceptual framework to examine the selection of environmental predictors and data resolution scales. These vary widely in recent papers, with light inconsistently included in the models. Focusing on light as a necessary component of plant SDMs, we briefly review its dependence on aspect and slope and existing knowledge of its influence on plant distribution. Differences in light regimes between north‐ and south‐facing aspects in temperate latitudes can produce differences in temperature equivalent to moves 200 km polewards. Local topography may create refugia that are not recognized in many climate change SDMs using coarse‐scale data. We argue that current assumptions about the selection of predictors and data resolution need further testing. Application of these ideas can clarify many issues of scale, extent and choice of predictors, and potentially improve the use of SDMs for climate change modelling of biodiversity.     

Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species’ ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species’ niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12‐fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.     

Dispersal limitations increase vulnerability under climate change for reptiles and amphibians in the southwestern United States

Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km² across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid-century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest.