Prioritizing conservation investments for mammal species globally

We need to set priorities for conservation because we cannot do everything, everywhere, at the same time. We determined priority areas for investment in threat abatement actions, in both a cost-effective and spatially and temporally explicit way, for the threatened mammals of the world. Our analysis presents the first fine-resolution prioritization analysis for mammals at a global scale that accounts for the risk of habitat loss, the actions required to abate this risk, the costs of these actions and the likelihood of investment success. We evaluated the likelihood of success of investments using information on the past frequency and duration of legislative effectiveness at a country scale. The establishment of new protected areas was the action receiving the greatest investment, while restoration was never chosen. The resolution of the analysis and the incorporation of likelihood of success made little difference to this result, but affected the spatial location of these investments.     

Rapid recovery of mammal fauna in the central Kimberley,northern Australia,following the removal of introduced herbivores

Australia has lost more native mammal species than any other country in the past two centuries, and this record of loss looks likely to worsen over the next few decades. Small‐ to medium‐sized mammals are declining in both distribution and density across large tracts of northern Australia's tropical savannas, including within protected areas. The most likely causes are a combination of changed fire patterns, the impacts of introduced herbivores and predation by feral cats. Here, in contrast to the prevailing trend across northern Australia, we report the recovery of native mammals in response to a large‐scale (>40 000 ha) destocking experiment carried out at Mornington Wildlife Sanctuary in the central Kimberley, north‐west Australia. Following the removal of introduced herbivores from 2004, the species richness and abundance of small native rodents and dasyurids increased significantly across all sampled habitats over the next 3 years. We discuss the implications of these results for guiding land management and applied research to help to reduce the impending risk of mammalian extinctions in northern Australia.     

Changes in mammal populations in relatively intact landscapes of Kakadu National Park,Northern Territory,Australia

A previous study ( Braithwaite & Muller 1997 ) reported substantial declines in mammal abundance over the period 1986–1993 for a large study area (300 km²) within Kakadu National Park in the tropical savannas of northern Australia. This decline was reported as being a ‘natural’ response to fluctuating groundwater levels, driven by runs of poor wet seasons. We resampled mammals in this area in 1999, following a series of unusually good wet seasons, and examined the prediction that mammal numbers should have recovered. Increases in abundance were evident for four species: the smallest dasyurid (red‐cheeked dunnart Sminthopsis virginiae) and the three smallest rodents (delicate mouse Pseudomys delicatulus, western chestnut mouse Pseudomys nanus and grassland melomys Melomys burtoni). In contrast, the abundance of all mammals combined and that for seven individual mammal species (northern quoll Dasyurus hallucatus, fawn antechinus Antechinus bellus, common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula, northern brown bandicoot Isoodon macrourus, dusky rat Rattus colletti, black‐footed tree‐rat Mesembriomys gouldii and pale field rat Rattus tunneyi) continued to decline. The decline in abundance of these mammal species is consistent with limited observations elsewhere in northern Australia. Although far from conclusive, these observations suggest that the biota of the vast relatively undisturbed tropical savannas can no longer be assumed to be intact nor safe. Further research is needed to test this possible pattern of decline and, if confirmed, to identify and ameliorate the processes contributing to it.     

Analysis of factors implicated in the recent decline of Australia's mammal fauna

Aim To assess whether eight factors thought to be involved in the extinction process can explain the pattern of recent decline in Australia's mammal fauna. Location Australia. Methods We compiled the first comprehensive lists of mammal species extant at the time of European settlement in each of Australia's 76 mainland regions, and assigned a current conservation status to each species in each region to derive an index of faunal attrition. We then sought to explain the observed region‐to‐region variation in attrition (the dependent variable) by building a series of models using variables representing the eight factors. Results A strong geographically based pattern of attrition emerged, with faunal losses being greatest in arid regions and least in areas of high rainfall. The Akaike information criterion showed support for one model that explained 93% of the region‐to‐region variation in attrition. Its six variables all made independent contributions towards explaining the observed variation. Two were environmental variables, namely mean annual rainfall (a surrogate for regional productivity) and environmental change (a measure of post‐European disturbance). The other four were faunal variables, namely phylogenetic similarity, body‐weight distribution, area (as a surrogate for extent of occurrence), and proportion of species that usually shelter on the ground (rather than in rock piles, burrows or trees). Main conclusions In combination with historical evidence, the analysis provides an explicit basis for setting priorities among regions and species. It also shows that the long‐term recovery of populations of many species of Australian mammals will require introduced predator suppression as well as extensive habitat management that includes controlling feral herbivores. Specifically, habitat management should restore aspects of productivity relevant to the types of species at risk and ensure the continual availability of suitable refuges from physiological stressors.     

Accuracy of identifications of mammal species from camera trap images: A northern Australian case study

Camera traps are a powerful and increasingly popular tool for mammal research, but like all survey methods, they have limitations. Identifying animal species from images is a critical component of camera trap studies, yet while researchers recognize constraints with experimental design or camera technology, image misidentification is still not well understood. We evaluated the effects of a species’ attributes (body mass and distinctiveness) and individual observer variables (experience and confidence) on the accuracy of mammal identifications from camera trap images. We conducted an Internet‐based survey containing 20 questions about observer experience and 60 camera trap images to identify. Images were sourced from surveys in northern Australia and included 25 species, ranging in body mass from the delicate mouse (Pseudomys delicatulus, 10 g) to the agile wallaby (Macropus agilis, >10 kg). There was a weak relationship between the accuracy of mammal identifications and observer experience. However, accuracy was highest (100%) for distinctive species (e.g. Short‐beaked echidna [Tachyglossus aculeatus]) and lowest (36%) for superficially non‐distinctive mammals (e.g. rodents like the Pale field‐rat [Rattus tunneyi]). There was a positive relationship between the accuracy of identifications and body mass. Participant confidence was highest for large and distinctive mammals, but was not related to participant experience level. Identifications made with greater confidence were more likely to be accurate. Unreliability in identifications of mammal species is a significant limitation to camera trap studies, particularly where small mammals are the focus, or where similar‐looking species co‐occur. Integration of camera traps with conventional survey techniques (e.g. live‐trapping), use of a reference library or computer‐automated programs are likely to aid positive identifications, while employing a confidence rating system and/or multiple observers may lead to a collection of more robust data. Although our study focussed on Australian species, our findings apply to camera trap studies globally.     

Relationships between seed germination requirements and ecophysiological characteristics aid the recovery of threatened native plant species in Western Australia

Summary One of the foremost technical issues addressed in reintroduction and restoration projects is the feasibility of establishing living plants. To advance the recovery process, the germination requirements of 201 threatened Western Australian seed‐bearing taxa representing a range of life forms, families and ecophysiological characteristics were studied. Procedures used to stimulate germination in otherwise dormant seed involved pretreatment using thermal shock, scarification, seed coat removal, soaking in an aqueous smoke solution and/or additions of the growth hormone gibberellic acid (GA₃). Sixty‐one taxa germinated under the basic trial conditions of light (12‐ h photoperiod), temperature (constant 15°C) and moisture, without additional pretreatments. These taxa were generally those with canopy‐stored seeds in the families Proteaceae and Casuarinaceae, and small‐seeded taxa in Myrtaceae. Taxa with soil‐stored seeds required single or multiple cues to stimulate germination. Seeds in the families Fabaceae and Mimosaceae were dependent on cracking of the seed coat, mechanically through nicking of the testa or through thermal shock, as were several non‐leguminous species of the Sterculiaceae and Liliaceae. Complete or partial removal of seed coats, in conjunction with GA₃ enhanced germination percentage in some taxa of the Myoporaceae, Lamiaceae and Myrtaceae. Application of GA₃ also enhanced germination percentage in members of the Epacridaceae. Several taxa previously stimulated by aqueous smoke solutions were equally responsive to additions of GA₃ after complete seed coat removal. In general, species with seed weights greater than 10 mg germinated better under a range of conditions than those with lighter seeds. There was no difference in germinability between resprouter and seeder species, and no obvious relationship between seed weight and germination rate. In the light of previous studies these results indicate that the relationship between germination requirements and ecophysiological characteristics is similar for both threatened and common species. These data will enable better prediction of likely dormancy breaking cues for other related species and will greatly assist the process of recovery and restoration work for mining operations and community bushland regeneration as well as single species reintroductions.     

Rainfall,groundwater and refuges: Predicting extinctions of Australian tropical mammal species

Abstract A general decline in populations of some savanna mammal species has occurred since the mid-1980s in a fairly pristine national park environment in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Terrestrial native rodents have exhibited the greatest decline and marsupials the least. During the same period, waterholes have dried up and the previous strong association of mammals with riparian vegetation has diminished. A regional index of the level of groundwater was developed from 16 unexploited bores from across the northern half of the Northern Territory. Predicted mean groundwater values over 28 years showed a strong increase throughout the 1970s and a similar decrease throughout the 1980s. Using data since 1986, strong correlations between mammal numbers and groundwater levels for the preceding two years, and much weaker relationships with rainfall, were obtained. In turn, the groundwater levels were best correlated with an eight-year running mean of rainfall for both Darwin and Alice Springs and an eleven-year running mean for the Southern Oscillation Index. Extrapolating backward in time, cumulative pressure variation at Darwin showed two extended periods of predicted low ground-water values, 1900s–1920s and 1940s. Both periods were preceded by the last records of a number of now-extinct mammals from central Australia. A third trough in the early 1960s suggests another period of extinction in central Australia, previously unappreciated due to the lack of survey work in the 1950s. Further, by this analysis, the past 20 years has been the best period for mammals since weather records commenced. Analysis of continental-scale distributions of mammals showed evidence of fluctuations suggesting rocky areas are important refuges for some species during periods of low groundwater levels. In contrast to those in savanna habitats, the mammals of the extensive wetland areas fluctuated in harmony with rainfall on a short-term basis except where habitat is flooded. It is the species which occur only in savanna but not also in rocky or wetland habitats which are most at risk. A number of other species-vulnerability characteristics were identified: riparian vegetation specificity; the degree to which they fall within the critical size range (35 g-5. 5 kg); degree of semelparity; smallness of population size; and smallness of geographic range. Those savanna species with annual life histories strongly associated with riparian areas are likely to be in greatest jeopardy. The species which appear to be most vulnerable in northwestern Australia are Conilurus penicillatus, Mesembriomys gouldii, Mesembriomys macrurus, Antechinus bellus, Phascogale tapoatafa and Rattus tunneyi. Our recent benign climatic history has coincided with the great public environmental awakening and upsurge in environmental research and management efforts. This historical accident has probably led us to overstate the negative effects of human impact and also our ability to change the course of biological history by ameliorating human impact. Our distorted view of these factors has further led us to over-emphasize research of a spatial nature to the detriment of temporal studies. We must redress this balance.     

Identifying biodiversity hotspots for threatened mammal species in Iran

Conservation biology has much more attention for biodiversity hot spots than before. In order to recognize the hotspots for Iranian terrestrial mammal species that are listed in any red list, nationally or globally, ten Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been applied. The SDMs evaluation results based on the TSS and AUC values showed that all ten models of habitat suitability perform significantly better than the random selection for all studied species. According to the results, biodiversity hotspots for threatened mammal species are located in north, west and central of Iran, along the Zagros and Alborz mountain range. Therefore, habitats for threatened mammal species have been limited to small parts of Iran (approximately 27% of the country). These areas are severely fragmented and only 57% of them have been announced protected by the current conservation system. The suggestion is that, as the sustainability of these habitats would strongly depend on maintaining dispersal corridors to facilitate the movement of animals among the habitat fragments, conservation efforts should focus on those hotspots which are not formally protected under conservation laws.     

Incorporating bioclimatic and biogeographic data in the construction of species distribution models in order to prioritize searches for new populations of threatened flora

The aim of this study was to analyse the usefulness of incorporating bioclimatic and biogeographic data into digital species prediction and modelling tools in order to identify potential habitats of rare or endangered flora taxa. Species distribution models (SDMs) were obtained using the Maximum entropy algorithm. Habitat suitability maps were based on sites of known occurrence of studied species. The study showed that highly reliable habitat prediction models can be obtained through the inclusion of bioclimatic and biogeographic maps when modelling these species. The resultant SDMs are able to fit the search area more closely to the characteristics of the species, excluding the percentage of highly suitable areas that are located far from the known distribution of the taxon, where the probability of finding the plant is low. Therefore, it is possible to overcome one of the most commonly encountered problems in the construction of rare or threatened flora taxa SDMs, derived from the low number of initial citations. The resulting SDMs and the vegetation map enable prioritization of the search for new populations and optimization of the economic and human resources used in the collection of field data.     

The shrinking ark: patterns of large mammal extinctions in India

Mammal extinctions are widespread globally, with South Asian species being most threatened. We examine local extinctions of 25 mammals in India. We use historical records to obtain a set of locations at which each species was known to have been present at some time in the last 200 years. We then use occupancy estimation models to draw inferences about current presence at these same locations based on field observations of local experts. We examine predictions about the influence of key factors such as protected areas, forest cover, elevation, human population density and cultural tolerance on species extinction. For all 25 species, estimated local extinction probabilities (referenced to a 100 year time frame) range between 0.14 and 0.96. Time elapsed since the historical occurrence record was an important determinant of extinction probability for 14 species. Protected areas are positively associated with lower extinction of 18 species, although many species occur outside them. We find evidence that higher proportion of forest cover is associated with lower extinction probabilities for seven species. However, for species that prefer open habitats (which have experienced intensive land-use change), forest cover alone appears insufficient to ensure persistence (the complement of extinction). We find that higher altitude is positively associated with lower extinction for eight species. Human population density is positively associated with extinction of 13 species. We find that ‘culturally tolerated’ species do exhibit higher persistence. Overall, large-bodied, rare and habitat specialist mammals tend to have higher extinction probabilities.     

Body mass‐related changes in mammal community assembly patterns during the late Quaternary of North America

The late Quaternary of North America was marked by prominent ecological changes, including the end‐Pleistocene megafaunal extinction, the spread of human settlements and the rise of agriculture. Here we examine the mechanistic reasons for temporal changes in mammal species association and body size during this time period. Building upon the co‐occurrence results from Lyons et al. (2016) – wherein each species pair was classified as spatially aggregated, segregated or random – we examined body mass differences (BMD) between each species pair for each association type and time period (Late Pleistocene: 40 000 ¹⁴C–11 700 ¹⁴C ybp, Holocene: 11 700 ¹⁴C–50 ybp and Modern: 50–0 yr). In the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, the BMD of both aggregated and segregated species pairs was significantly smaller than the BMD of random pairs. These results are consistent with environmental filtering and competition as important drivers of community structure in both time periods. Modern assemblages showed a breakdown between BMD and co‐occurrence patterns: the average BMD of aggregated, segregated and random species pairs did not differ from each other. Collectively, these results indicate that the late Quaternary mammalian extinctions not only eliminated many large‐bodied species but were followed by a re‐organization of communities that altered patterns of species coexistence and associated differences in body size.     

评世界保护联盟新的物种受威胁分类系统草案

为了进一步了解物种受威胁的情况和发展,以加强物种保护工作,世界保护联盟制定了一个新的物种受威胁分类系统草案,把物种受威胁的程度分为９个级别,即绝灭种、野生状态下的绝灭种、极危种、濒危种、渐危种、敏感种、安全的／危险性小的种、不充分了解的种和未估价的种。本文对这个分类系统草案作了简略的评介。     

The use of Senate inquiries for threatened species conservation

Global biodiversity continues to decline at a steady rate, especially in Australia where 10% of the land mammal population has become extinct since European settlement. The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) list of threatened species is Australia's version of the IUCN red‐list; however, not all species fit easily within the EPBC guidelines and criteria for listing. Recently, a high‐profile Senate inquiry was used to bring about the listing of the koala, Phascolarctos cinereus, although it had previously been deemed ineligible for threatened species status. We are concerned that the use of Senate Inquiries will become more frequent now that a precedent has been set. We suggest they are not an appropriate means of threatened species conservation because they are politically topical, not necessarily based on expert opinion and do not carry any need for legislative response. Successful species conservation should be based on sound ecological knowledge embedded within a transparent and logical decision framework.     

Evaluating the current condition of a threatened marine mammal population: Estimating northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) abundance in southwest Alaska

We estimated density and abundance of the threatened southwest Alaska distinct population segment of northern sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) in two management units. We conducted aerial surveys in Bristol Bay and South Alaska Peninsula management units in 2016, and modeled sea otter density and abundance with Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling models and spatial environmental covariates (depth, distance to shore, depth × distance to shore). Spatial environmental covariates substantially impacted sea otter group density in both management units, but effects sizes differed between the two management units. Abundance (9,733 otters, 95% CrI 6,412–17,819) and density (0.82 otters/km², 95% CrI 0.54–1.49) estimates for Bristol Bay indicated a moderate population size. In contrast, abundance (546 otters, 95% CrI 322–879) and density (0.06 otters/km², 95% CrI 0.03–0.09) estimates indicated a relatively low population size in South Alaska Peninsula. Overall, our results highlight the importance of accounting for the detection process in monitoring at-risk species to reduce the uncertainty associated with making conclusions about population declines.     

Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity

Aim Theoretical work suggests that species’ ecological niches should remain relatively constant over long‐term ecological time periods, but empirical tests are few. We present longitudinal studies of 23 extant mammal species, modelling ecological niches and predicting geographical distributions reciprocally between the Last Glacial Maximum and present to test this evolutionary conservatism. Location This study covered distributional shifts in mammal species across the lower 48 states of the United States. Methods We used a machine‐learning tool for modelling species’ ecological niches, based on known occurrences and electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions, to assess the ability of ecological niches as modelled in one time period to predict the geographical distribution of the species in another period, and vice versa. Results High intertemporal predictivity between niche models and species’ occurrences indicate that niche conservatism is widespread among the taxa studied, particularly when statistical power is considered as a reason for failure of reciprocal predictions. Niche projections to the present for 8 mammal taxa that became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene generally increased in area, and thus do not support the hypothesis of niche collapse as a major driving force in their extinction. Main conclusions Ecological niches represent long‐term stable constraints on the distributional potential of species; indeed, this study suggests that mammal species have tracked consistent climate profiles throughout the drastic climate change events that marked the end of the Pleistocene glaciations. Many current modelling efforts focusing on anticipating climate change effects on species’ potential geographical distributions will be bolstered by this result — in essence, the first longitudinal demonstration of niche conservatism.     

Effects of roads on small mammal diversity and abundance in the northern Serengeti,Tanzania

The high biodiversity of small mammal species in the Serengeti ecosystem provides this ecosystem with important conservation value. However, whether the extensive development of roads has negative impacts on the small mammal population has not been tested. Small mammal population diversity and abundance were examined in this study using live trapping at sites close to (experimental) and away (control) from the main gravel road during the short rainy seasons in November and December 2011 and 2012. A total of 138 individuals from three orders representing six families and fourteen species were collected over 4,860 trap nights. There were no significant differences in the species richness, diversity or abundance of small mammals between the control and experimental sites (p > 0.05), suggesting that the current gravel road does not have a significant impact on the small mammal population. These findings were ascribed to the availability of favourable habitats at both distances as a result of little road usage due to poor conditions. Should the road be improved, the control of anthropogenic activities in the area should be given high priority. Continuous monitoring of the small mammal populations in the area is recommended.     

Seasonal variation in Arctic marine mammal acoustic detection in the northern Bering Sea

Declines in Arctic sea ice cover are influencing the distribution of protected endemic marine mammals, many of which are important for local Indigenous Peoples, and increasing the presence of potentially disruptive industrial activities. Due to increasing conservation concerns, we conducted the first year-round acoustic monitoring of waters off Gambell and Savoonga (St. Lawrence Island, Alaska), and in the Bering Strait to quantify vocalizing presence of bowhead whales, belugas, walruses, bearded seals, and ribbon seals. Bottom-mounted archival acoustic recorders collected data for up to 10 months per deployment between 2012 and 2016. Spectrograms were analyzed for species-typical vocalizations, and daily detection rates and presence/absence were calculated. Generalized additive models were used to model call presence as a function of time-of-year, sea surface temperature, and sea ice concentration. We identified seasonality in call presence for all species, corroborating previous acoustic and distribution studies, and identified finer-scale spatiotemporal distribution via occurrence of call presence between different monitoring sites. Time-of-year was the strongest significant effect on call presence for all species. These data provide important information on Arctic endemic species' spatiotemporal distributions in biologically and culturally important areas within a rapidly changing Arctic region.     

Impacts of tourism on threatened plant taxa and communities in Australia

Summary Many Australian plant species and communities appear to be threatened by tourism. A review of management plans, recovery plans and a survey of experts found that tourism was considered to be a direct or indirect threatening process for 72 plant taxa. This is one fifth of threatened species for which threats have been identified. In addition, many more species are listed as threatened by weeds, trampling, pathogens, clearing and collecting. These are often indirect impacts of tourism, particularly in conservation reserves where tourism is the only commercial activity permitted. Tourism was also considered to be a threatening process for several plant communities. A lack of recognition of the importance of direct and indirect impacts of tourism may potentially hinder the conservation of plant species and communities both in Australia and overseas. It may also limit the effectiveness of sustainable tourism policies, particularly in conservation reserves.