Evolutionary analyses of non‐family genes in plants

There are a large number of ‘non‐family’ (NF) genes that do not cluster into families with three or more members per genome. While gene families have been extensively studied, a systematic analysis of NF genes has not been reported. We performed comparative studies on NF genes in 14 plant species. Based on the clustering of protein sequences, we identified ~94 000 NF genes across these species that were divided into five evolutionary groups: Viridiplantae wide, angiosperm specific, monocot specific, dicot specific, and those that were species specific. Our analysis revealed that the NF genes resulted largely from less frequent gene duplications and/or a higher rate of gene loss after segmental duplication relative to genes in both low‐copy‐number families (LF; 3–10 copies per genome) and high‐copy‐number families (HF; >10 copies). Furthermore, we identified functions enriched in the NF gene set as compared with the HF genes. We found that NF genes were involved in essential biological processes shared by all plant lineages (e.g. photosynthesis and translation), as well as gene regulation and stress responses associated with phylogenetic diversification. In particular, our analysis of an Arabidopsis protein–protein interaction network revealed that hub proteins with the top 10% most connections were over‐represented in the NF set relative to the HF set. This research highlights the roles that NF genes may play in evolutionary and functional genomics research.     

Unexpected side effects in biocrust after treating non‐native plants using carbon addition

Carbon addition has been proposed as an alternative to herbicide and manual removal methods to treat non‐native plants and reduce non‐target effects of treatments (e.g. impacts on native plants; surface disturbance). On Mojave Desert pavement and biocrust substrates after experimental soil disturbance and carbon addition (1,263 g C/m² as sucrose), we observed declines in lichens and moss cover in sucrose‐treated plots. To further explore this unforeseen potential side effect of using carbon addition as a non‐native plant treatment, we conducted biocrust surveys 5 and 7 years after treatments, sampled surface soils to observe if treatments additionally affected soil filamentous cyanobacteria, and conducted laboratory trials testing the effects of different levels of sucrose on cyanobacteria and desert mosses. Sucrose addition to biocrust plots reduced lichen and moss cover by 33–78% and species richness by 40–80%. Sucrose reduced biocrust cover in biocrust plots to levels similarly detected in pavement plots (<1%). While cyanobacteria in the field did not appear to be affected by sucrose, laboratory tests showed negative effects of sucrose on both cyanobacteria and mosses. Cyanobacteria declined by 41% 1 month after exposure to 5.4 g C/m² equivalent solutions. We detected injury to photosynthesis in mosses after 96 hour exposure to 79–316 g C/m² equivalent solutions. Caution is warranted when using carbon addition, at least in the form and concentration of sucrose, as a treatment for reducing non‐native plants on sites where conserving biocrust is a goal.     

A meta-analysis of leaf gas exchange and nitrogen in trees grown under elevated carbon dioxide

The response of trees to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]) is of concern to forest ecologists and global carbon modellers and is the focus of an increasing body of research work. I review studies published up to May 1994, and several unpublished works, which reported at least one of the following: net CO₂ assimilation (A), stomatal conductance (g_s), leaf dark respiration (R_d) leaf nitrogen or specific leaf area (SLA) in woody plants grown at <400 μmol mol^?1 CO₂ or at 600–800 μmol mol^?1 CO₂. The resulting data from 41 species were categorized according to growth conditions (unstressed versus stressed), length of CO₂ exposure, pot size and exposure facility [growth chamber (GC), greenhouse (GH), or open-top chamber (OTC)] and interpreted using meta-analytic methods. Overall, A showed a large and significant increase at elevated [CO₂] but length of CO₂ exposure and the exposure facility were important modifiers of this response. Plants exposed for < 50 d had a significantly greater response, and those from GCs had a significantly lower response than plants from longer exposures or from OTC studies. Negative acclimation of A was significant and general among stressed plants, but in unstressed plants was influenced by length of CO₂ exposure, the exposure facility and/or pot size. Growth at elevated [CO₂] resulted in moderate reductions in gs in unstressed plants, but there was no significant effect of CO₂ on gs in stressed plants. Leaf dark respiration (mass or area basis) was reduced strongly by growth at high [CO₂] > while leaf N was reduced only when expressed on a mass basis. This review is the first meta-analysis of elevated CO₂ studies and provides statistical confirmation of several general responses of trees to elevated [CO₂]. It also highlights important areas of continued uncertainty in our understanding of these responses.     

A pre‐adaptive approach for tropical forest restoration during climate change using naturally occurring genetic variation in response to water limitation

Effective reforestation of degraded tropical forests depends on selecting planting material suited to the stressful environments typical at restoration sites that can be exacerbated by increased duration and intensity of dry spells expected with climate change. While reforestation efforts in nontropical systems are incorporating drought‐adapted genotypes into restoration programs to cope with drier conditions, such approaches have not been tested or implemented in tropical forests. As the first effort to examine genetic variation in plant response to drought in a tropical wet forest, we established a watering experiment using five replicated maternal lines (i.e. seedlings from different maternal trees) of five dipterocarp species native to Borneo. Apart from the expected species level variation in growth and herbivory (3‐fold variation in both cases), we also found intraspecific variation so that growth in some cases varied 2‐fold, and herbivory 3‐fold, among genetically different maternal lines. In two species we found that among‐maternal line variation in growth rate was negatively correlated with tolerance to water limitation, that is, the maternal lines that performed the best in the high water treatment lost proportionally more of their growth during water limitation. We argue that selection for tolerance to future drier conditions is not only likely to impact population genetics of entire forests, but likely extends from forest trees to the communities of canopy arthropods associated with these trees. In tropical reforestation efforts where increased drought is predicted from climate change, including plant material resilient to drier conditions may improve restoration effectiveness.     

A global perspective of ground level, ‘ambient’ carbon dioxide for assessing the response of plants to atmospheric CO2

For most studies involving the response of plants to future concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), a current concentration of 360–370 μatm is assumed, based on recent data obtained from the Mauna Loa observatory. In the present study, average seasonal diurnal values of ambient CO₂ obtained at ground level from three global locations (Australia, Japan and the USA) indicated that the average CO₂ (at canopy height) can vary from over 500 μatm at night to 350 μatm during the day with average 24‐h values ranging from 390 to 465 μatm. At all sites sampled, ambient CO₂ rose to a maximum value during the pre‐dawn period (03.00–06.00 hours); at sunrise, CO₂ remained elevated for several hours before declining to a steady‐state concentration between 350 and 400 μatm by mid‐morning (08.00–10.00 hours). Responses of plant growth to simulations of the observed variation of in situ CO₂ were compared to growth at a constant CO₂ concentration in controlled environment chambers. Three diurnal patterns were used (constant 370 μatm CO₂, constant 370 during the day (07.00–19.00 hours), high CO₂ (500 μatm) at night; or, high CO₂ (500 μatm) at night and during the early morning (07.00–09.00 hours) decreasing to 370 μatm by 10.00 hours). Three plant species ? soybean (Glycine max, L (Merr.), velvetleaf (Abutilon theophrasti L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) ? were grown in each of these environments. For soybean, high night‐time CO₂ resulted in a significant increase in net assimilation rate (NAR), plant growth, leaf area and biomass relative to a constant ambient value of CO₂ by 29 days after sowing. Significant increases in NAR for all three species, and significant increases in leaf area, growth and total biomass for two of the three C3 species tested (velvetleaf and soybean) were also observed after 29 days post sowing for the high night/early morning diurnal pattern of CO₂. Data from these experiments suggest that the ambient CO₂ concentration experienced by some plants is higher than the Mauna Loa average, and that growth of some agricultural species at in situ CO₂ levels can differ significantly from the constant CO₂ value used as a control in many CO₂ experiments. This suggests that a reassessment of control conditions used to quantify the response of plants to future, elevated CO₂ may be required.     

Reliable estimation of biochemical parameters from C3 leaf photosynthesis–intercellular carbon dioxide response curves

The Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis is a change‐point model and structurally overparameterized for interpreting the response of leaf net assimilation (A) to intercellular CO₂ concentration (Ci). The use of conventional fitting methods may lead not only to incorrect parameters but also several previously unrecognized consequences. For example, the relationships between key parameters may be fixed computationally and certain fits may be produced in which the estimated parameters result in contradictory identification of the limitation states of the data. Here we describe a new approach that is better suited to the FvCB model characteristics. It consists of four main steps: (1) enumeration of all possible distributions of limitation states; (2) fitting the FvCB model to each limitation state distribution by minimizing a distribution‐wise cost function that has desirable properties for parameter estimation; (3) identification and correction of inadmissible fits; and (4) selection of the best fit from all possible limitation state distributions. The new approach implemented theoretical parameter resolvability with numerical procedures that maximally use the information content of the data. It was tested with model simulations, sampled A/Ci curves, and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements of different tree species. The new approach is accessible through the automated website leafweb.ornl.gov.     

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non‐target species

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non‐target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non‐target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non‐target effect magnitude and increase non‐target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species.     

Global patterns of mobile carbon stores in trees at the high‐elevation tree line

Aim Across all latitudes, high‐elevation tree lines represent a drastic change in the dominant plant life‐form, from upright trees to low‐stature alpine plants. Although associated with low temperatures, the physiological mechanisms controlling this boundary are still not clear. The growth‐limitation hypothesis assumes a direct low‐temperature restriction of tissue formation at otherwise sufficient photoassimilation. In order to test this hypothesis, we present a global synthesis of previously published and new data on tree carbon supply status at high‐elevation tree lines. Location Global; 13 regions between 68° N and 45° S. Methods Late‐season concentrations of non‐structural carbohydrates (NSC) in foliage and branch wood were measured at three elevations across the tree line ecotones, from upper tall forests (timber line) to the edges of aborescent tree growth (tree line). Year‐round records of ?10 cm soil temperatures were taken at the tree line. Results Despite large differences in elevation and season length, the mean growing season temperature at the tree line was similar (approximately 6.6 °C) between all sites. NSC concentrations were not depleted at any of the elevation gradients between timber line and tree line, indicating no shortage of C at the uppermost tree stands. Tested across all sites, NSC concentrations in fact significantly increased with elevation. On average, NSC increased by 18% in leaves and 26% in branch wood from the lowest to the highest stands, primarily due to higher starch concentrations rather than free sugars. Hence, these responses do not reflect osmotic adjustments to lower temperatures at the end of the growing season. Main conclusions This global data set contributes to a mechanistic understanding of tree line formation based on biological principles across climatic zones and tree genera. No evidence of C shortage was found at the high‐elevation tree line in either seasonal and non‐seasonal regions. The increasing trend of NSC concentrations with elevation is in line with the growth‐limitation hypothesis.     

Evidence of non‐stationary relationships between climate and forest responses: Increased sensitivity to climate change in Iberian forests

Climate and forest structure are considered major drivers of forest demography and productivity. However, recent evidence suggests that the relationships between climate and tree growth are generally non‐stationary (i.e. non‐time stable), and it remains uncertain whether the relationships between climate, forest structure, demography and productivity are stationary or are being altered by recent climatic and structural changes. Here we analysed three surveys from the Spanish Forest Inventory covering c. 30 years of information and we applied mixed and structural equation models to assess temporal trends in forest structure (stand density, basal area, tree size and tree size inequality), forest demography (ingrowth, growth and mortality) and above‐ground forest productivity. We also quantified whether the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography and above‐ground forest productivity were stationary over two consecutive time periods. Since the 1980s, density, basal area and tree size increased in Iberian forests, and tree size inequality decreased. In addition, we observed reductions in ingrowth and growth, and increases in mortality. Initial forest structure and water availability mainly modulated the temporal trends in forest structure and demography. The magnitude and direction of the interactive effects of climate and forest structure on forest demography changed over the two time periods analysed indicating non‐stationary relationships between climate, forest structure and demography. Above‐ground forest productivity increased due to a positive balance between ingrowth, growth and mortality. Despite increasing productivity over time, we observed an aggravation of the negative effects of climate change and increased competition on forest demography, reducing ingrowth and growth, and increasing mortality. Interestingly, our results suggest that the negative effects of climate change on forest demography could be ameliorated through forest management, which has profound implications for forest adaptation to climate change.     

Annual basal area increment and growth duration of Pinus taeda in response to eight years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment

Rising CO₂ is predicted to increase forest productivity, although the duration of the response and how it might be altered by variation in rainfall, temperature and other environmental variables are not well understood. We measured the basal area of rapidly growing Pinus taeda trees exposed to free‐air CO₂ enrichment for 8 years and used these measurements to estimate monthly and annual growth. We used these measurements in a statistical model to estimate the start and end of growth in each year. Elevated CO₂ increased the basal area increment (BAI) of trees by 13–27%. In most years, exposure to elevated CO₂ increased the growth rate but not the duration of the active growth period. With the exception of 1 year following an extreme drought and a severe ice storm, BAI was positively correlated with the amount of rainfall during the active growth period. The interannual variation in the relative enhancement of BAI caused by elevated CO₂ was strongly related to temperature and rainfall, and was greatest in years with high vapor pressure deficit. There was no evidence of a systematic reduction in the stimulation of growth during the first 8 years of this experiment, suggesting that the hypothesized limitation of the CO₂ response caused by nitrogen availability has yet to occur.     

‘Last In–First Out’: seasonal variations of non‐structural carbohydrates,glucose‐6‐phosphate and ATP in tubers of two Arum species

• Knowledge on the metabolism of polysaccharide reserves in wild species is still scarce. In natural sites we collected tubers of Arum italicum Mill. and A. maculatum L. – two geophytes with different apparent phenological timing, ecology and chorology – during five stages of the annual cycle in order to understand patterns of reserve accumulation and degradation.
• Both the entire tuber and its proximal and distal to shoot portion were utilised. Pools of non‐structural carbohydrates (glucose, sucrose and starch), glucose‐6‐phosphate and ATP were analysed as important markers of carbohydrate metabolism.
• In both species, starch and glucose content of the whole tuber significantly increased from sprouting to the maturation/senescence stages, whereas sucrose showed an opposite trend; ATP and glucose‐6‐phosphate were almost stable and dropped only at the end of the annual cycle. Considering the two different portions of the tuber, both ATP and glucose‐6‐phosphate concentrations were higher in proximity to the shoot in all seasonal stages, except the flowering stage.
• Our findings suggest that seasonal carbon partitioning in the underground organ is driven by phenology and occurs independently of seasonal climate conditions. Moreover, our results show that starch degradation, sustained by elevated ATP and glucose‐6‐phosphate pools, starts in the peripheral, proximal‐to‐shoot portion of the tuber, consuming starch accumulated in the previous season, as a ‘Last In–First Out’ mechanism of carbohydrate storage.

     

Tryptophan‐derived secondary metabolites in Arabidopsis thaliana confer non‐host resistance to necrotrophic Plectosphaerella cucumerina fungi

A defence pathway contributing to non‐host resistance to biotrophic fungi in Arabidopsis involves the synthesis and targeted delivery of the tryptophan (trp)‐derived metabolites indol glucosinolates (IGs) and camalexin at pathogen contact sites. We have examined whether these metabolites are also rate‐limiting for colonization by necrotrophic fungi. Inoculation of Arabidopsis with adapted or non‐adapted isolates of the ascomycete Plectosphaerella cucumerina triggers the accumulation of trp‐derived metabolites. We found that their depletion in cyp79B2 cyp79B3 mutants renders Arabidopsis fully susceptible to each of three tested non‐adapted P. cucumerina isolates, and super‐susceptible to an adapted P. cucumerina isolate. This assigns a key role to trp‐derived secondary metabolites in limiting the growth of both non‐adapted and adapted necrotrophic fungi. However, 4‐methoxy‐indol‐3‐ylmethylglucosinolate, which is generated by the P450 monooxygenase CYP81F2, and hydrolyzed by PEN2 myrosinase, together with the antimicrobial camalexin play a minor role in restricting the growth of the non‐adapted necrotrophs. This contrasts with a major role of these two trp‐derived phytochemicals in limiting invasive growth of non‐adapted biotrophic powdery mildew fungi, thereby implying the existence of other unknown trp‐derived metabolites in resistance responses to non‐adapted necrotrophic P. cucumerina. Impaired defence to non‐adapted P. cucumerina, but not to the non‐adapted biotrophic fungus Erysiphe pisi, on cyp79B2 cyp79B3 plants is largely restored in the irx1 background, which shows a constitutive accumulation of antimicrobial peptides. Our findings imply differential contributions of antimicrobials in non‐host resistance to necrotrophic and biotrophic pathogens.     

Biomass increases attributed to both faster tree growth and altered allometric relationships under long‐term carbon dioxide enrichment at a temperate forest

Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations are expected to lead to increases in the rate of tree biomass accumulation, at least temporarily. On the one hand, trees may simply grow faster under higher CO₂ concentrations, preserving the allometric relations that prevailed under lower CO₂ concentrations. Alternatively, the allometric relations themselves may change. In this study, the effects of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on tree biomass and allometric relations were jointly assessed. Over 100 trees, grown at Duke Forest, NC, USA, were harvested from eight plots. Half of the plots had been subjected to CO₂ enrichment from 1996 to 2010. Several subplots had also been subjected to nitrogen fertilization from 2005 to 2010. Allometric equations were developed to predict tree height, stem volume, and aboveground biomass components for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), the dominant tree species, and broad‐leaved species. Using the same diameter‐based allometric equations for biomass, it was estimated that plots with eCO₂ contained 21% more aboveground biomass, consistent with previous studies. However, eCO₂ significantly affected allometry, and these changes had an additional effect on biomass. In particular, P. taeda trees at a given diameter were observed to be taller under eCO₂ than under ambient CO₂ due to changes in both the allometric scaling exponent and intercept. Accounting for allometric change increased the treatment effect of eCO₂ on aboveground biomass from a 21% to a 27% increase. No allometric changes for the nondominant broad‐leaved species were identified, nor were allometric changes associated with nitrogen fertilization. For P. taeda, it is concluded that eCO₂ affects allometries, and that knowledge of allometry changes is necessary to accurately compute biomass under eCO₂. Further observations are needed to determine whether this assessment holds for other taxa.     

Closing in on maximum yield of chlorophyll fluorescence using a single multiphase flash of sub‐saturating intensity

Estimation of the maximum chlorophyll fluorescence yield under illumination, or Fm′, by traditional single saturation pulse (SP) methodology is prone to underestimation error because of rapid turnover within photosystem (PS) II. However, measurements of fluorescence yield during several single pulses of variable intensity describes the irradiance dependence of apparent Fm′, from which estimates of Fm′ at infinite irradiance can be derived. While such estimates have been shown to result in valid approximations of Fm′, the need to apply several single pulses limits its applicability. We introduce a novel approach that determines the relationship between apparent Fm′ and variable irradiance within a single ～1 s multiphase flash (MPF). Through experiments and simulations, we demonstrate that the rate of variation in irradiance during an MPF is critical for achieving quasi–steady‐state changes in the proportions of PSII acceptor side redox intermediates and the corresponding fluorescence yields, which are prerequisites for accurately estimating Fm′ at infinite irradiance. The MPF methodology is discussed in the context of improving the accuracy of various parameters derived from chlorophyll fluorescence measurements, such as photochemical and non‐photochemical quenchings and efficiencies. The importance of using MPF methodology for interpreting chlorophyll fluorescence, in particular for integrating fluorescence and gas exchange measurements, is emphasized.     

Contrasting seasonal overlaps between primary and secondary growth are linked to wood anatomy in Mediterranean sub‐shrubs

Whole‐plant approaches allow quantification of the temporal overlap between primary and secondary growth. If the amount of time available to grow is short, there may be a high temporal overlap between shoot growth and wood formation. We hypothesise that such overlap depends on the duration of the growing season and relates to wood anatomy. We evaluated wood anatomy, shoot longitudinal and radial growth rates, fine root production and the concentrations of non‐structural carbohydrates (NSC) in the wood of six sub‐shrub species growing in sites with contrasting climatic conditions (Lepidium subulatum, Linum suffruticosum, Salvia lavandulifolia, Satureja montana, Ononis fruticosa, Echinospartum horridum). Sub‐shrub species living in sites with a short growing season displayed a high overlap between aboveground primary and secondary growth and formed wide vessels, whereas species from the warmest and driest sites presented the reverse characteristics. The highest overlap was linked to a rapid shoot extension and thickening through the enhanced hydraulic conductivity provided by wide vessels. The reductions in NSC concentrations when growth peaked were low or moderate, indicating that sub‐shrubs accumulate NSC in excess, as do trees. The temporal overlap among primary and secondary growth in woody plants may be connected to the duration and rates of shoot and wood growth, which in turn depend on the vessel lumen area.     

Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta‐analysis

The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960–2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade^?1 ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade^?1 for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade^?1, while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade^?1. For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s–2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s–2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R = ?0.33, P < 0.05).     

Deep peat warming increases surface methane and carbon dioxide emissions in a black spruce‐dominated ombrotrophic bog

Boreal peatlands contain approximately 500 Pg carbon (C) in the soil, emit globally significant quantities of methane (CH₄), and are highly sensitive to climate change. Warming associated with global climate change is likely to increase the rate of the temperature‐sensitive processes that decompose stored organic carbon and release carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄. Variation in the temperature sensitivity of CO₂ and CH₄ production and increased peat aerobicity due to enhanced growing‐season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of peatland trace gas emission. As CH₄ is a powerful greenhouse gas with 34 times the warming potential of CO₂, it is critical to understand how factors associated with global change will influence surface CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. Here, we leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) climate change manipulation experiment to understand the impact of a 0–9°C gradient in deep belowground warming (“Deep Peat Heat”, DPH) on peat surface CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. We find that DPH treatments increased both CO₂ and CH₄ emission. Methane production was more sensitive to warming than CO₂ production, decreasing the C‐CO₂:C‐CH₄ of the respired carbon. Methane production is dominated by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis but deep peat warming increased the δ¹³C of CH₄ suggesting an increasing contribution of acetoclastic methanogenesis to total CH₄ production with warming. Although the total quantity of C emitted from the SPRUCE Bog as CH₄ is <2%, CH₄ represents >50% of seasonal C emissions in the highest‐warming treatments when adjusted for CO₂ equivalents on a 100‐year timescale. These results suggest that warming in boreal regions may increase CH₄ emissions from peatlands and result in a positive feedback to ongoing warming.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.