Harmonia axyridis: an environmental risk assessment for Northwest Europe

In this paper, we summarize the international situation with respect to environmental risk assessment for biological control agents. Next, we apply a recently designed, comprehensive risk evaluation method consisting of a stepwise procedure to evaluate the environmental risks of Harmonia axyridis in Northwest Europe. This resulted in the very clear conclusion that H. axyridis is a potentially risky species for Northwest Europe, because it is able to establish, it has a very wide host range including species from other insect orders and even beyond the class of Insecta, it may feed on plant materials, it can cover large distances (>50 km per year), it does move into non-target areas, it may attack many non-target species including beneficial insects and insects of conservation concern, its activities have resulted in the reduction of populations of native predators in North America, it is known as a nuisance in North America and recently also in Northwest Europe, and it may develop as a pest of fruit in North America. Considering the H. axyridis case, current knowledge would lead to the conclusion that, although the predator is capable to effectively control several pest species, its risks are manifold and it should, thus, not have been released in Northwest Europe. At the time of the first releases in Nortwest Europe in 1995, the available scientific literature made clear that H. axyridis is a large sized polyphagous predator and has a great reproductive capacity in comparison with other ladybird beetles, and that there was a need to study non-target effects because of its polyphagous behaviour. In retrospect, this information should have been sufficient to reject import and release of this species, but it was apparently ignored by those who considered release of this predator in Northwest Europe. The case of Harmonia releases in Northwest Europe underlines that there is an urgent need for harmonized, world-wide regulation of biological control agents, including an information system on risky natural enemy species.     

城市化的生态风险及其管理

城市化体现在人口向城市聚集和城市景观扩张的同时,社会结构发生了极大变化,城市生产生活方式向更加广泛的地区扩散。然而,随着人口的过度密集和城市的日益扩张,交通拥堵、空气污染、废物堆积、流行病肆虐等"城市病"频发。城市通过大量汲取和消耗自然资源,向周围环境排放大量污染物,改变了区域生态系统的原有结构和功能,产生了严峻的生态风险,进而制约着城市生态系统的可持续发展。城市化的生态风险正逐步得到广泛关注,但对其具体的内涵和影响尚不明晰。归类描述了城市化过程中面临的各种生态风险,分析了导致生态风险的主要因素,阐述了辨识与评价生态风险的基本方法,提出了城市化生态风险的调控管理对策。     

噻虫嗪和噻虫胺对鸟类的急性毒性与风险评估

[目的]明确噻虫嗪与噻虫胺2种新烟碱农药对鸟类的风险。[方法]采用经口灌胃法测定98%噻虫嗪或噻虫胺原药、30%噻虫嗪或20%噻虫胺悬浮剂、42%噻虫嗪或46%噻虫胺种子处理悬浮剂对日本鹌鹑的毒性等级。根据供试农药对鸟类的毒性数据,结合田间用药信息,开展了2种农药对鸟类的初级风险评估。[结果]98%噻虫嗪原药、30%噻虫嗪悬浮剂和42%噻虫嗪种子处理悬浮剂对日本鹌鹑的半致死剂量(7 d-LD₅₀)分别为1500、481和266 mg·kg^-1,毒性等级分别为低毒、中毒、中毒,悬浮剂和种子处理悬浮剂的毒性高于原药。98%噻虫胺原药、20%噻虫胺悬浮剂和46%噻虫胺种子处理悬浮剂对日本鹌鹑的7 d-LD₅₀分别为369、397和1569 mg·kg^-1,毒性等级分别为中毒、中毒和低毒,种子处理悬浮剂的毒性最低。噻虫嗪和噻虫胺的悬浮剂在水稻田间使用时,对鸟类急性、短期和长期暴露的风险商值均小于1,风险可接受;噻虫嗪和噻虫胺的种子处理悬浮剂在玉米田应用时,对鸟类急性、短期和长期暴露的风险商值均大于1,风险不可接受。[结论]噻虫嗪和噻虫胺的悬浮剂在田间应用时对鸟类相对安全,2种农药的种子处理悬浮剂可能对鸟类产生危害。在种子处理场景中,播种后尽可能覆土或覆膜,减少种子直接暴露被鸟类取食;在鸟类保护区域,应避免使用噻虫嗪和噻虫胺的种子处理悬浮剂,以减轻农药施用对鸟类的危害。     

双雄雀麦传入中国的风险评估

【目的】原产地中海地区的双雄雀麦,已成为入侵地的重要农田杂草,给多国农牧业生产带来重大损失。我国口岸已多次从进境动植物及其产品中截获双雄雀麦,应对其入侵风险进行评估。【方法】参照有害生物风险分析程序对其危害性进行评估,应用多指标综合评估方法确定其入侵我国的风险等级。【结果】通过定性和半定量风险分析,得出双雄雀麦在中国的综合风险值(R)为2.12。【结论】双雄雀麦在我国属高风险有害生物,建议口岸检疫部门加强入境农产品的检疫监管和监测调查,及时发现并进行防除。     

Predation risk affects diapause induction in the spider mite Tetranychus urticae

Whenever diapause induction triggers movement into another microhabitat or the development of protective morphological structures, this may also alter predation risk. If the risk of being eaten is lower in the diapause phase, then there may be selection favouring diapause induction in response to predators or their cues. In this article, we studied the effect of the predatory mite Typhlodromus pyri on diapause induction in the spider mite Tetranychus urticae. We used a Greek strain because under long-night photoperiods and low temperature only part of the population enters diapause, thereby leaving room for the impact of another factor. In spider mite groups under predation, the percentage diapause induction increased whenever night-lengths were such that diapause was induced (13–16 h of night). Given this diapause induction in response to predation risk, the question arises whether entering diapause helps spider mites to escape from predation and contribute more offspring to the spring generation next year.     

世界性害虫葡萄花翅小卷蛾入侵我国的风险分析

【目的】葡萄花翅小卷蛾是我国禁止进境的检疫性害虫,一旦入侵我国,将会给葡萄产业和林果业造成严重损失。开展葡萄花翅小卷蛾入侵我国的风险分析可为该虫的检疫和预警提供依据。【方法】介绍了葡萄花翅小卷蛾的形态特征和生物学特性,并参照通用的有害生物风险评估方法,从该虫在国内外的发生情况、潜在的经济危害性、受害作物的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性及风险管理的难度等方面,对其入侵风险进行了定性和定量分析。【结果】葡萄花翅小卷蛾是一种对我国有很大潜在威胁的有害生物,其风险值为2.14,属高度危险性有害生物。【结论】建议新疆等口岸比较多的省、自治区口岸检疫部门加强对该害虫的检疫力度,杜绝其传入我国。     

The properties of global risk networks and corresponding risk management strategies

Global risks interconnect with one another and threaten our society as a highly interdependent system. However, knowledge on how risk materializations influence one another is limited. Thus, this study provides a network model to measure risk interdependence and presents recommendations on the integrative risk management framework.

This study develops a global risk network and calculates its key indicators of structural characteristics. Results show that global risks are closely interconnected and a particular triangle relationship exists among environmental, geopolitical, and societal risks. To improve the resilience of a risk system, the systematic important risks, which are “man-made environmental catastrophes” and “interstate conflict” in this study, should be monitored and controlled. Furthermore, we simplify the risk system by entirely managing risks in the same group based on our reclassification. Our method is considerably effective in detecting upcoming crisis and assists supervisors take timely action to prevent crisis.     

内蒙古典型草原区狭颅田鼠集群数量与被捕食风险的关系

2005年9月15日—30日,在内蒙古锡林郭勒盟西乌珠穆沁旗的典型草原上研究了狭颅田鼠(Microtus gregalis)冬季集群与来自艾虎(Mustela eversmanni)的捕食风险。采用鼠洞口数量作为狭颅田鼠集群大小的指标,分析了艾虎对不同大小狭颅田鼠集群的捕食优先选择偏好。对实验样地内狭颅田鼠的洞群洞口数进行了调查统计(样地内总共涉及102个狭颅田鼠有效洞群),并计数此期间的艾虎粪便堆数以及攻击掘开狭颅田鼠洞群的情况。运用非参数的Mann-Whitney U检验法进行数据分析,结果表明:从艾虎遗留的粪便痕迹来看,没有被艾虎访问过的田鼠洞群与被艾虎访问过的洞群之间差异达到极显著水平;另外,从狭颅田鼠洞口被艾虎掘开的痕迹来分析,没有被艾虎挖掘的洞群与被艾虎挖掘的洞群之间的差异也达到极显著的水平;另外,随着田鼠洞群洞口数量的增加,出现艾虎粪便和掘洞的频次和概率就越高。表明艾虎对狭颅田鼠集群洞口数的选择差异性非常显著,明显倾向于选择在洞口数量多的狭颅田鼠洞群停留,同时也更倾向于掘开洞口数量较高的狭颅田鼠洞群作为捕食对象。     

基于多风险源胁迫的西南地区生态风险评价

西南地区生态环境复杂、人地矛盾突出,生态系统面临着多种风险胁迫,进行生态风险评价对区域生态风险的预警和防控具有重要的意义。基于西南地区的生态环境特征,将生态风险分为自然灾害风险与人类活动风险,从风险源危险性、生态系统潜在损失度、生态系统易损性3个方面构建单一风险评价模型,将单一风险评价结果进行综合分析得到西南地区综合生态风险结果。研究表明,西南高生态风险区面积为17.02万km2,占研究区总面积7.4%,主要分布在念青唐古拉山、邛崃山、哀牢山、无量山、金沙江、怒江、澜沧江、大渡河流域等地,以及成都、重庆、贵阳等人地作用强烈的大城市周边。这些地区环境复杂,灾害易发,应加强防控与监测,优化产业结构,继续推进生态保护工程,降低生态风险。     

Finding fault with health risk assessment: A typology for risk assessment criticism

Although systematic, quantitative assessment of environmental health risks is a staple of regulatory decision-making, complaints regarding its perceived failures and shortcomings are an intrinsic feature of the policy landscape. In this article, we (a) catalog the classic criticisms of conventional health risk assessment, (b) create a typology that orders the critiques according to their focus on either input errors or output biases, and (c) identify selected allegations that fall within each category. We also note that the risk assessment–risk management paradigm has evolved over the past several decades, partially in accordance with the general direction and spirit of these classic critiques. The debate continues today along familiar lines invoking the traditional critiques and rebuttals outlined here.     

Predation risk and alternative mating tactics in male Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata)

In the guppy (Poecilia reticulata), males have two alternative mating tactics. Individual males may either display to a receptive female prior to attempting to copulate with her or attempt to quickly sneakcopulate with a female without first displaying to her or without a prior receptive response from her. In this study, I experimentally investigated the effects of simulated local increases in the risk of predation (in the form of a cichlid fish predator model in situ) on the mating tactics used by free-ranging male guppies in two typical macrohabitats (riffle and pool) of a Trinidadian river. Focal male guppies displayed to females significantly less often on average, and conversely attempted sneak copulations more often, in the presence of the predator model than in its absence; this pattern was similar for both habitats. These fish therefore performed a lower proportion of sigmoid displays and increased their sneaky mating attempts when the apparent risk of predation had increased locally. This predator-mediated response is consistent with a trade-off between mating success and risk of mortality due to predation. The results are the first to confirm risk-sensitive mating behaviour in free-ranging male guppies within a population, and demonstrate the potential importance of predators in influencing the relative use of alternative mating tactics in this species on a microgeographical scale in the wild.     

Perspectives on environmental risk assessment

Risk is by no means a simple concept. Natural variability and definitional problems with the concept of probability complicate the measurement and use of risk as an analytical tool. Variability requires that risk assessment methods separate natural from total risk when attempting to estimate anthropogenic risk. Failure to do so results in the over estimation of anthropogenic risk and the eventual loss of credibility for risk assessment methodologies. The common frequentist approach to probability is not consistent with anything but a modelling approach to risk assessment. When combined with its ability to account for natural variability, incorporate laboratory-assay data and offer complete statistical and experimental control, modelling is a promising approach to risk assessment. Modelling, however, is not without its drawbacks. Initialization bias can result in the over, or under, estimation of both natural and anthropogenic risk. Furthermore, model estimates are time dependent. The convergence of natural and anthropogenic risk poses problems for modelling-based risk assessment and requires clear statements as to the importance of the time dimension in risk assessment. When combined, the drawbacks to modelling-based risk assessment argue that risk should never be stated as a scalar quantity. Instead, modelling-based risk assessment should provide estimates of the complete range of risk measures (total, natural, and anthropogenic) as well as indications of convergence time. Only then can the modelling-based approach be viewed as the most appropriate means of carrying out scientifically credible risk assessment.     

生态风险评价方法述评

生态风险是由环境的自然变化或人类活动引起的生态系统组成、结构的改变而导致系统功能损失的可能性。生态风险评价是定量预测各种风险源对生态系统产生风险的或然性以及评估该风险可接受程度的方法体系,因而是生态环境风险管理与决策的定量依据。在介绍了生态风险概念的基础上,按照风险源性质的分类标准将生态风险划分为化学污染类风险源、生态事件类风险源、复合类风险源3类,并分别论述了3类生态风险对应评价方法的特点与发展的方向。另外,针对生态风险评价研究的现状,讨论了我国生态风险研究的优先领域,包括建立急性、慢性毒理数据库,构建外来生物入侵风险评价标准等,同时,建议将综合概率统计学、复杂系统理论与遥感技术等手段引入生态风险评价方法中,以进一步提高风险评价结果在生态风险管理中的有效性。     

Effects of predation risk on mating behavior of the Kanzawa spider mite

In the Kanzawa spider mite, Tetranychus kanzawai, adult males locate pre-reproductive quiescent females and engage in precopulatory mate guarding. We found that re-reproductive quiescent females preferred to be near veins, rather than other leaf parts, and moreover, adult males spent more time along the vein than on other parts. Consequently, T. kanzawai males found more quiescent females along veins than those on other parts. However, the predatory mite Neoseiulus womersleyi also found more quiescent T. kanzawai females along veins than those on other parts. Moreover, N. womersleyi found more guarding males than solitary males of T. kanzawai. Thus, we experimentally examined the effects of predation risk on the mating behavior of T. kanzawai. The presence of N. womersleyi reduced T. kanzawai female preference for vein vicinity as a quiescent site. Although the predation risk of guarding T. kanzawai males was lower than that of solitary males after detection by predators, the presence of N. womersleyi also reduced the proportion of guarding T. kanzawai males. These results suggest that the possible benefits of preferring vein vicinity as quiescent sites by T. kanzawai females is outweighed by predation risk in the presence of predators, and that the risk of detection by predators would be more important for T. kanzawai males than the risk of being preyed upon.     

Distribution patterns and predation risk of the coexisting cladocerans Bythotrephes longimanus and Leptodora kindtii in a large lake – Lake Constance

The distributions of the coexisting, planktonic, predatory cladocerans Bythotrephes longimanus and Leptodora kindtii were studied at four different stations (Langenargen-Arbon, Fischbach-Uttwil, Bregenzer Bucht and Zeller See) of a great lake, Lake Constance. The stations Langenargen-Arbon and Fischbach-Uttwil are deep (>200 m) with a high density of the coregonid fish Coregonus lavaretus, the stations Bregenzer Bucht and Zeller See are shallow (<60 m) with lower densities of coregonid fish. B. longimanus was present in the pelagic zone from mid May to November at all stations. L. kindtii generally appeared slightly later in the year than B. longimanus. Peak abundances of B. longimanus with more than 5000 ind. m^–2 (Langenargen-Arbon) appeared in late spring. During summer, when predation pressure by fish is high, abundance of B. longimanus decreased gradually. In contrast, L. kindtii displayed maximum abundances with more than 18 000 ind. m^–2 (Zeller See) in summer. During the summer months, B. longimanus lived in greater depths than L. kindtii. Differences of vertical distribution between both species were most pronounced at the deep stations (Langenargen-Arbon, Fischbach-Uttwil). Analysis of stomachs of the planktivorous fish Coregonus lavaretus showed that B. longimanus was preferred by C. lavaretus over all other prey; Ivlev's selectivity index was 0.97–0.99. Due to this high positive selection for B. longimanus by coregonids, it is surprising that the cladoceran could maintain its existence since the first recordings in 1877. Spatial refuge or indigestible resting eggs may be the underlying mechanism for this phenomenon.     

Rodents balancing a variety of risks: invasive fire ants and indirect and direct indicators of predation risk

We used foraging trays to compare how oldfield mice, Peromyscus polionotus, altered foraging in response to the presence of fire ants, Solenopsis invicta, and in the presence of direct (predator urine) and indirect (sheltered or exposed microhabitat, moonlight, and precipitation) indicators of predation risk. Foraging reductions elicited by S. invicta were greater than reductions in response to well-documented indicators of risk (i.e., moonlit nights) and the presence of predator urine. The presence of S. invicta always led to reduced foraging, but the overall impact of S. invicta was dependent upon microhabitat and precipitation. When S. invicta was not present, foraging was greater in sheltered microhabitats compared to exposed microhabitats. S. invicta made sheltered microhabitats equivalent to more risky exposed microhabitats, and this effect was especially pronounced on nights without precipitation. The effect of S. invicta suggests that interactions with S. invicta may entail a potentially heavy cost or that presence of S. invicta may represent a more reliable indicator of imminent competition or predation compared to indirect cues of risk and predator urine. The presence of S. invicta led to reduced foraging under situations when foraging activity would otherwise be greatest (i.e., under vegetative cover), potentially reducing habitat quality for P. polionotus and the distribution of seeds consumed by rodents.     

Estimating predation risk in zooplankton communities: the importance of vertical overlap

In order to estimate predation risk in nature, two basic components of predation need to be quantified: prey vulnerability, and density risk. Prey vulnerability can be estimated from clearance rates obtained from enclosure experiments with and without predators. Density risk is a function of predator density, and the spatial and temporal overlap of the predator and prey populations. In the current study we examine the importance of the vertical component of overlap in making accurate estimates of predation risk from the invertebrate predator Mesocyclops edax on rotifer versus crustacean prey. The results indicate that assumptions of uniform predator and prey densities cause a significant underestimation of predation risk for many crustacean prey due to the coincident vertical migration of these prey with the predator. The assumption of uniformity is more reasonable for estimating predation risk for most rotifer prey.