Multiple-year optimization of conservation effort and monitoring effort for a fluctuating population

We consider optimal conservation strategies for an endangered population. We assume that juvenile survival is affected by unpredictable environmental fluctuation and can be improved by costly conservation effort. The initial population size is not accurately known at the time that the conservation effort level is chosen, but the uncertainty of its estimate can be reduced by a costly monitoring effort. In a previous paper, we analysed the optimal management strategy that minimizes a weighted sum of extinction probability and economic costs when only a single year is considered. Here we examine the case in which the conservation period lasts for several years by dynamic programming with incompletely observed process states. We study the optimal levels of the conservation and the monitoring efforts, and their dependence on the length of the conservation period and other parameters. The main conclusions are: (1) The optimal conservation effort in the first year depends on the accuracy of the information on the population size in the first year, but is almost independent of the accuracy of the information in later years. (2) When the risk of population extinction is small, the optimal conservation effort increases with the uncertainty of the population size. In contrast when the population is endangered, the optimal conservation effort decreases with the uncertainty of the population size. (3) The optimal conservation and monitoring efforts both increase with the length of the conservation period, provided that the population is relatively safe. However, if the population is endangered, both types of effort become smaller when the conservation period increases.     

Optimal conservation strategy in fluctuating environments with species interactions: resource-enhancement of the native species versus extermination of the alien species

Alien species are often a major threat to native species. We consider optimal conservation strategies for a population whose viability is affected both by an alien species (such as a competitor, a predator, or a pathogen) and by random fluctuations of the environment (e.g. precipitation, temperature). We assume that the survivorship of the native population can be improved by providing resources such as food and shelter, and also by an extermination effort that decreases the abundance of the alien species. These efforts decrease the extinction probability of the native population, but they are accompanied by economic costs. We search for the optimal strategy that minimizes the weighted sum of the extinction probability and the economic costs over a single year. We derive conditions under which investment should be made in both resource-enhancement and extermination, and examine how the optimal effort levels change with parameters. When the optimal strategy includes both types of efforts, the optimal extermination effort level turns out to be independent of the density and economic value of the native species, or the variance of the environmental fluctuation. Furthermore, the optimal resource-enhancement effort is then independent of the density of the alien species. However, the parameter dependencies greatly change if one of the efforts becomes zero. We also examine the situation in which the impact of the alien species is uncertain. The optimal extermination effort increases with the uncertainty of this impact except when the cost of extermination is very high.     

Optimal conservation effort for a population in a stochastic environment

We study the optimal conservation effort for a population in a fluctuating environment. The survivorship of a population is affected by unpredictable environmental fluctuation (noise) and can be improved by conservation effort accompanied by a cost. The optimal effort level is the one that minimizes the total cost, defined as the weighted sum of the population extinction risk and the economic cost of conservation effort. The optimal effort depends on the variance and the probability distribution of the noise, the relative importance of the population's survival vs. the economic cost, the effectiveness of conservation effort, and the time scope over which we optimize. The analysis of dynamic programming illustrates that the choice of extinction risk function greatly affects the optimal effort level. The conservation effort level that is the best solution of a multiple-year optimization may be higher than that for the corresponding single-year optimization, if the population is relatively safe. However, the conservation level for the multiple-year optimization becomes lower than for the single-year optimization if the population is endangered. In a similar manner, the optimal conservation effort level for the problem with a short time scope is either higher or lower than that for the problem with a long time scope, depending on the extinction risk of the population. Next, for each parameter of the model, we define five different sensitivities of extinction probability or of the total cost. We then study the mean increase in the total cost caused by the uncertainty of parameters. To achieve the best conservation result, we need to invest the limited research effort to the parameter with the largest effect to the optimal effort level, rather than to those with large impacts on the extinction probability or on the total cost. The recommended policy should depend critically on the choice of the criterion to optimize, which shows the importance of theoretical study of the relationship in performing proper decision making in conservation practice.     

Maternal investment in egg size: environment- and population-specific effects on offspring performance

Geographic variation in maternal investment in offspring size can be adaptive if differences in investment translate into improved offspring performance in the given environments. We compared two moor frog, Rana arvalis, populations in the laboratory to test the hypothesis that investment in large eggs in populations originating from stressful (acid) environments improves offspring performance when reared in stressful (acid) conditions. We found that large initial size (hatchling mass) had moderate to strong, environment-dependent positive effects on larval and metamorphic traits in the acidic origin population, but only weak effects in the neutral origin population. Our results suggest that interactions between environmental conditions and initial size can be important determinants of individual performance, and that investment in large eggs is adaptive in acid environments. These findings emphasize the role of maternal effects as adaptations to environmental stress.     

Life-history strategies of optimal foragers

The optimal life histories are examined for models in which the average life-history strategy adopted by the population affects the costs and benefits of any individual's strategy. The situation modeled is one in which organisms can gain energy to be used in reproduction by foraging, but in doing so, they expose themselves to increased mortality; thus the proportion of time spent foraging can be used to measure reproductive effort. Simple models of a demographically homogeneous population are used to reexamine questions which have been studied previously using other models. The effects upon optimal reproductive effort of the following factors are examined: increased births per unit effort, increased mortality, and variability in population parameters. In addition, the questions of whether optimal reproductive effort maximizes population size and whether there can be multiple alternative life histories are examined. Results in most cases differ significantly from those of previous studies. No generalizations emerge regarding the effects of the three factors listed above. Optimal life histories in this model generally do not maximize population size. It is possible to have globally stable alternative life histories. It is concluded that frequency dependence will often be important in determining optimal life histories.     

Trends in Extinction Risk for Imperiled Species in Canada

Protecting and promoting recovery of species at risk of extinction is a critical component of biodiversity conservation. In Canada, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) determines whether species are at risk of extinction or extirpation, and has conducted these assessments since 1977. We examined trends in COSEWIC assessments to identify whether at-risk species that have been assessed more than once tended to improve, remain constant, or deteriorate in status, as a way of assessing the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation in Canada. Of 369 species that met our criteria for examination, 115 deteriorated, 202 remained unchanged, and 52 improved in status. Only 20 species (5.4%) improved to the point where they were ‘not at risk’, and five of those were due to increased sampling efforts rather than an increase in population size. Species outcomes were also dependent on the severity of their initial assessment; for example, 47% of species that were initially listed as special concern deteriorated between assessments. After receiving an at-risk assessment by COSEWIC, a species is considered for listing under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA), which is the primary national tool that mandates protection for at-risk species. We examined whether SARA-listing was associated with improved COSEWIC assessment outcomes relative to unlisted species. Of 305 species that had multiple assessments and were SARA-listed, 221 were listed at a level that required identification and protection of critical habitat; however, critical habitat was fully identified for only 56 of these species. We suggest that the Canadian government should formally identify and protect critical habitat, as is required by existing legislation. In addition, our finding that at-risk species in Canada rarely recover leads us to recommend that every effort be made to actively prevent species from becoming at-risk in the first place.     

Age‐dependent variation in the terminal investment threshold in male crickets

The terminal investment hypothesis proposes that decreased expectation of future reproduction (e.g., arising from a threat to survival) should precipitate increased investment in current reproduction. The level at which a cue of decreased survival is sufficient to trigger terminal investment (i.e., the terminal investment threshold) may vary according to other factors that influence expectation for future reproduction. We test whether the terminal investment threshold varies with age in male crickets, using heat‐killed bacteria to simulate an immune‐inducing infection. We measured calling effort (a behavior essential for mating) and hemolymph antimicrobial activity in young and old males across a gradient of increasing infection cue intensity. There was a significant interaction between the infection cue and age in their effect on calling effort, confirming the existence of a dynamic terminal investment threshold: young males reduced effort at all infection levels, whereas old males increased effort at the highest levels relative to naïve individuals. A lack of a corresponding decrease in antibacterial activity suggests that altered reproductive effort is not traded against investment in this component of immunity. Collectively, these results support the existence of a dynamic terminal investment threshold, perhaps accounting for some of the conflicting evidence in support of terminal investment.     

Optimal resource allocation to seeds and vegetative propagules under density-dependent regulation in Syneilesis palmata (Compositae)

Syneilesis palmata reproduces by both seeds and vegetative propagules (short rhizomes). The latter result in the production of new plants that are larger in size and hence have a higher survival probability and a higher growth rate than seeds. A previous study predicted that the optimal reproductive strategy, in terms of maximizing population growth rate (a fitness measure under no density regulations), was pure vegetative reproduction. However, high resource investment to vegetative propagules can cause local crowding resulting in reduced demographic performances of the plants, because the vegetative propagules of Syneilesis are produced close to one another. We examined, in this situation, the impact of allocating a certain proportion of reproductive resource to seeds with relatively greater capacity for dispersal. We simulated dynamics of hypothetical Syneilesis populations with various reproductive resource allocation balances (from pure seed to pure vegetative reproduction), using a density-dependent matrix model. In the model, it was assumed that plants from vegetative propagules experienced density-dependent reduction in their survival probabilities, but this was not the case for plants originating from seeds. Each allocation strategy was evaluated based on an equilibrium population density, a fitness measure under density-dependent regulations. The optimal reproductive strategy predicted was pure vegetative reproduction. Unrealistic conditions were required for seed reproduction to be favoured, such as the production of seeds one hundred times the normal number per unit resource investment. However, the conditions were fairly relaxed compared with those required in the model where no density effects were incorporated. This indicates that escape from local crowding is likely to be one of the roles of seed production in Syneilesis.     

Terminal investment induced by immune challenge and fitness traits associated with major histocompatibility complex in the house sparrow

The terminal investment hypothesis predicts that individuals should invest more in their present reproduction if they are less likely to survive to future reproductive events. Infections, which reduce viability, may be used by individuals as a cue of a diminishing residual reproductive value and could therefore theoretically trigger an intensification of breeding effort. We tested this hypothesis in a natural population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We manipulated the immune system of breeding females by injecting them with a vaccine against the Paramyxo virus, the agent of Newcastle disease. Females were captured and treated immediately after completion of their first clutch either with the vaccine (NDV) or with phosphate buffered saline (PBS). The entire clutch was subsequently removed. We also screened Mhc class I genes of females to assess possible genotype-by-immune treatment interactions on reproductive investment. Our results indicate that vaccinated females were more likely to lay replacement clutches and that the difference in number of eggs between first and replacement clutches was greater for NDV females than for controls. In addition, chick size, both in terms of tarsus length and body mass, was affected by immune activation but in interaction with nestling age and female body mass, respectively. Mhc genotype-by-immune treatment interactions were never significant; however, allelic diversity was positively correlated with nestling survival. These results show that immune system activation is potentially used as a cue of reduced survival prospect and appears to induce a costly terminal investment behavior, and Mhc diversity might be under selection in a natural population of house sparrows.     

A unified mechanism for innate and learned visual landmark guidance in the insect central complex

Insects can navigate efficiently in both novel and familiar environments, and this requires flexiblity in how they are guided by sensory cues. A prominent landmark, for example, can elicit strong innate behaviours (attraction or menotaxis) but can also be used, after learning, as a specific directional cue as part of a navigation memory. However, the mechanisms that allow both pathways to co-exist, interact or override each other are largely unknown. Here we propose a model for the behavioural integration of innate and learned guidance based on the neuroanatomy of the central complex (CX), adapted to control landmark guided behaviours. We consider a reward signal provided either by an innate attraction to landmarks or a long-term visual memory in the mushroom bodies (MB) that modulates the formation of a local vector memory in the CX. Using an operant strategy for a simulated agent exploring a simple world containing a single visual cue, we show how the generated short-term memory can support both innate and learned steering behaviour. In addition, we show how this architecture is consistent with the observed effects of unilateral MB lesions in ants that cause a reversion to innate behaviour. We suggest the formation of a directional memory in the CX can be interpreted as transforming rewarding (positive or negative) sensory signals into a mapping of the environment that describes the geometrical attractiveness (or repulsion). We discuss how this scheme might represent an ideal way to combine multisensory information gathered during the exploration of an environment and support optimal cue integration.     

Breeding phenology,variation in reproductive effort and offspring size in a tropical population of the woodlouse Porcellionides pruinosus

Summary Most species of woodlice in temperate habitats have discrete breeding seasons. It is hypothesised that breeding synchronises with favourable environmental conditions to maximise offspring growth and survivorship (Willows 1984). We measured the breeding phenology of a species introduced to a tropical environment, primarily to consider the assumption that life histories in the tropics will differ fundamentally from those in temperate habitats. In addition to breeding phenology we considered variation in reproductive effort between individual females and the division of this effort between the size and number of young.A continuous breeding phenology was observed in a synanthropic population of Porcellionides pruinosus within the tropics. Reproductive effort varied between months, showed a weak relationship with female size and was independent of female fecundity. Female sizefecundity relationships varied between samples and when the proportion of reproductive females was high size-fecundity slopes were steeper than at other times. Mean offspring size varied between months and there was a wide range in offspring size within broods. Offspring size was not related to female body mass, reproductive effort or fecundity; consequently brood mass increased linearly with an increase in fecundity. Increased reproductive effort goes into more rather than larger offspring.We propose that the continuous breeding in this population was the result of the constant presence of an environmental cue to reproduction evolved in temperate habitats. Continuous breeding is not necessarily equivocal to high individual reproductive success even though overall population growth may be rapid. However, variation in reproductive effort suggests that individuals respond to current environmental conditions on short time scales.     

The hydra effect, bubbles, and chaos in a simple discrete population model with constant effort harvesting

We analyze the effects of a strategy of constant effort harvesting in the global dynamics of a one-dimensional discrete population model that includes density-independent survivorship of adults and overcompensating density dependence. We discuss the phenomenon of bubbling (which indicates that harvesting can magnify fluctuations in population abundance) and the hydra effect, which means that the stock size gets larger as harvesting rate increases. Moreover, we show that the system displays chaotic behaviour under the combination of high per capita recruitment and small survivorship rates.     

Signalling of information that is neither cryptic nor private

It is commonly assumed that in order for animal signals to be advantageous, the information being signalled could not have been obtained otherwise, and is therefore ‘cryptic’ or ‘private’. Here, we suggest a scenario in which individuals can gain an advantage by signalling ‘public’ information that is neither cryptic nor private. In that scenario, signalling increases the efficiency with which that ‘public’ information is transmitted. We formalize our idea with a game in which offspring can signal their condition to their parents. Specifically, we consider a resource‐strapped parent who can only invest in one of its two offspring, and we allow offspring the chance to influence parental investment through a signal. A parent in the game seeks to invest in the higher‐quality offspring, which it could identify either through a publicly available cue, such as body size, or by relying on a signal provided by the offspring. We find that if the signal can convey information about offspring quality more efficiently than cues, then signalling of condition between offspring and parents can be favoured by selection, even though parents could potentially have acquired the same information from the cue. Our results suggest that the biological function of signals may be broader than currently considered, and provide a scenario where low cost signalling can be favoured. More generally, efficiency benefits could explain signalling across a range of biological and economic scenarios.     

Cues to paternity: Do partner fidelity and offspring resemblance predict daughter-directed sexual aversions?

Despite the profound influence of relatedness on mating and cooperative behavior in humans, the cues men use to assess paternity and guide offspring-directed behavior have yet to be fully resolved. According to leading theories of kin detection, kinship cues should influence both sexual and altruistic motivations because of fitness consequences associated with inbreeding and welfare tradeoff decisions, respectively. Prior work with paternity assessment, however, has generally evaluated candidate cues solely by demonstrating associations with altruism. Here we (i) replicate past work that found effects of phenotypic resemblance and perceived partner fidelity on offspring investment; and (ii) evaluate whether both phenotypic resemblance and perceived partner fidelity meet the more stringent criteria suggested by theory—that is, whether they also predict inbreeding aversions. We report on two studies, one from a population-based sample of Finnish fathers (N?=?390), the other from a Mechanical Turk sample (N?=?700), and furnish evidence in strong support of perceived partner fidelity as a cue to paternity. Support for resemblance as a cue to paternity was decidedly weaker. We discuss a non-kin-based role that resemblance might play in altruistic decision-making, consider whether men might use additional kinship cues to meet the computational challenges associated with paternity assessment, and provide suggestions for future research.     

Song as an indicator of male parental effort in the sedge warbler

Repertoire size has been found to be a sexually selected trait in a number of bird species, although the advantages of mating with a male who possesses a complex song remain unclear. We studied the potential role of song as an indicator of male parental effort in the sedge warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus. The male provisioning rate was used as a measure of male parental effort and was found to increase with nestling age and brood size. When controlling for chick age, brood size and other variables, we found a highly significant positive correlation between a measure of song complexity (repertoire size) and male parental effort. Both male parental effort and repertoire size were found to be positively correlated with chick weight when controlling for chick age. We found no correlation between a measure of song output (amount of song flighting) or territory size and parental effort. Repertoire size is known to be the most important cue in female choice amongst sedge warblers and we discuss the possible reasons for this. We suggest that, in choosing a male with a large repertoire, a female obtains not only indirect benefits but also direct benefits in the form of increased parental effort.     

Equivalence relationships between stage-structured population models

Matrix population models are widely applied in conservation ecology to help predict future population trends and guide conservation effort. Researchers must decide upon an appropriate level of model complexity, yet there is little theoretical work to guide such decisions. In this paper we present an analysis of a stage-structured model, and prove that the model's structure can be simplified and parameterised in such a way that the long-term growth rate, the stable-stage distribution and the generation time are all invariant to the simplification. We further show that for certain structures of model the simplified models require less effort in data collection. We also discuss features of the models which are not invariant to the simplification and the implications of our results for the selection of an appropriate model. We illustrate the ideas using a population model for short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris). In this example, model simplification can increase parameter elasticity, indicating that an intermediate level of complexity is likely to be preferred.     

Density dependence in the terrestrial life history stage of two anurans

Populations of species with complex life cycles have the potential to be regulated at multiple life history stages. However, research tends to focus on single stage density-dependence, which can lead to inaccurate conclusions about population regulation and subsequently hinder conservation efforts. In amphibians, many studies have demonstrated strong effects of larval density and have often assumed that populations are regulated at this life history stage. However, studies examining density regulation in the terrestrial stages are rare, and the functional relationships between terrestrial density and vital rates in amphibians are unknown. We determined the effects of population density on survival, growth and reproductive development in the terrestrial stage of two amphibians by raising juvenile wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and American toads (Bufo americanus) at six densities in terrestrial enclosures. Density had strong negative effects on survival, growth and reproductive development in both species. We fitted a priori recruitment functions to describe the relationship between initial density and the density of survivors after one year, and determined the functional relationship between initial density and mass after one year. Animals raised at the lowest densities experienced growth and survival rates that were over twice as great as those raised at the highest density. All female wood frogs in the lowest density treatment showed signs of reproductive development, compared to only 6% in the highest density treatment. Female American toads reached minimum reproductive size only at low densities, and male wood frogs and American toads reached maturity only in the three lowest density treatments. Our results demonstrate that in the complex life cycle of amphibians, density in the terrestrial stage can reduce growth, survival and reproductive development and may play an important role in amphibian population regulation. We discuss the implications of these results for population regulation in complex life cycles and for amphibian conservation.     

Testing models of parental investment strategy and offspring size in ants

Parental investment strategies can be fixed or flexible. A fixed strategy predicts making all offspring a single ‘optimal’ size. Dynamic models predict flexible strategies with more than one optimal size of offspring. Patterns in the distribution of offspring sizes may thus reveal the investment strategy. Static strategies should produce normal distributions. Dynamic strategies should often result in non-normal distributions. Furthermore, variance in morphological traits should be positively correlated with the length of developmental time the traits are exposed to environmental influences. Finally, the type of deviation from normality (i.e., skewed left or right, or platykurtic) should be correlated with the average offspring size. To test the latter prediction, we used simulations to detect significant departures from normality and categorize distribution types. Data from three species of ants strongly support the predicted patterns for dynamic parental investment. Offspring size distributions are often significantly non-normal. Traits fixed earlier in development, such as head width, are less variable than final body weight. The type of distribution observed correlates with mean female dry weight. The overall support for a dynamic parental investment model has implications for life history theory. Predicted conflicts over parental effort, sex investment ratios, and reproductive skew in cooperative breeders follow from assumptions of static parental investment strategies and omnipresent resource limitations. By contrast, with flexible investment strategies such conflicts can be either absent or maladaptive. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

On the interpretation and application of mean times to extinction

As a metric of population viability, conservation biologists routinely predict the mean time to extinction (MTE). Interpretation of MTE depends on the underlying distribution of times to extinction (DTE). Despite claims to the contrary, all information regarding extinction risk can be obtained from this single statistic, the MTE, provided the DTE is exponential. We discuss the proper interpretation of MTE and illustrate how to calculate any population viability statistic when only the MTE is known and the DTE is assumed to be exponential. We also discuss the restrictive assumptions underlying the exponential DTE and the conditions under which alternative models for the DTE are preferable to the conventional (exponential) model. Despite superficial similarities between the exponential and alternative DTEs, several key differences can lead to substantially different interpretations of the MTE.     

On the importance of being structured: instantaneous coalescence rates and human evolution—lessons for ancestral population size inference?

Most species are structured and influenced by processes that either increased or reduced gene flow between populations. However, most population genetic inference methods assume panmixia and reconstruct a history characterized by population size changes. This is potentially problematic as population structure can generate spurious signals of population size change through time. Moreover, when the model assumed for demographic inference is misspecified, genomic data will likely increase the precision of misleading if not meaningless parameters. For instance, if data were generated under an n-island model (characterized by the number of islands and migrants exchanged) inference based on a model of population size change would produce precise estimates of a bottleneck that would be meaningless. In addition, archaeological or climatic events around the bottleneck''s timing might provide a reasonable but potentially misleading scenario. In a context of model uncertainty (panmixia versus structure) genomic data may thus not necessarily lead to improved statistical inference. We consider two haploid genomes and develop a theory that explains why any demographic model with structure will necessarily be interpreted as a series of changes in population size by inference methods ignoring structure. We formalize a parameter, the inverse instantaneous coalescence rate, and show that it is equivalent to a population size only in panmictic models, and is mostly misleading for structured models. We argue that this issue affects all population genetics methods ignoring population structure which may thus infer population size changes that never took place. We apply our approach to human genomic data.