极小种群野生植物生存力分析: 方法、问题与展望

日益加剧的环境变化与人类活动严重威胁种群的生存, 因此预测多种胁迫下种群的命运至关重要。种群生存力分析(population viability analysis, PVA)是评估种群所受威胁、灭绝或衰退风险以及恢复可能性的有效方法。基于物种及环境数据和建模, 种群生存力分析能够整合不同类型变量, 为目标物种的保护提供建议。然而, 极小种群野生植物的个体数据难以获取, 种群参数估计困难, 这导致传统种群生存力分析方法在此类种群中的应用存在局限性。在此, 本文提出了极小种群野生植物生存力分析的潜在方法: 小样本非统计分析法及环境变化下的种群适应力分析。小样本非统计分析法有益于提高种群统计学参数的估计精度, 而立足于生态进化生物学的种群生存力研究有助于从生物学机理方面了解和预测种群动态, 为极小种群野生植物的保护提供更适宜的理论指导。     

种群生存力分析在濒危动物保护与管理中的应用

种群生存力分析(population viability analysis,PVA)是濒危物种保护研究的主要方法之一。自PVA提出之后,主要应用于预测濒危物种的灭绝概率。随着PVA软件的产生,其应用范围进一步扩展,甚至出现滥用和误用之例,使其准确性受到质疑。目前,PVA主要应用于濒危物种的保护与管理。本文从保护管理对策的制定与评估、再引入计划的评估和自然保护区设计与管理有效性评估三个方面进行综述;对PVA使用时的数据收集,以及模型的选择、建立和应用等需要注意的问题加以总结;从遗传数据的使用、基于个体的种群模型的发展、近交衰退和降低入侵物种的威胁等方面对PVA的应用提出展望。     

自然保护区设计的主要原理和方法

本文回顾了自然保护区设计的主要原理和方法。建立自然保护区的目的是防止物种绝灭和生物多样性消失。岛屿生物地理学的“平衡理论”的设计原则未涉及到物种绝灭的中心问题———种群生存力,所以该理论对保护实践贡献较小。种群生存力分析和最小可存活种群的理论及模型用于物种绝灭问题的研究,同时关键种的生存力用于确定生态系统的生存力,因而该理论和模型成为自然保护区设计的理论基础。保护评估方法已应用于自然保护区的选择和检验中。走廊辩论取代了ＳＬＯＳＳ辩论,成为自然保护区设计争论的热点     

种群生存力分析研究进展和趋势

种群生存力分析（PVA）是正在迅速发展的新方法,已成为保护生物学研究的热点。它主要研究随机干扰对小种群绝灭的影响,其目的是制定最小可存活种群（MVP）,把绝灭减少到可接受的水平。随机干扰可分四类;统计随机性,环境随机性,自然灾害和遗传随机性。确定MVP的方法有三种：理论模型,模拟模型,模拟模型和岛屿生物地理学方法。理论模型主要研究理想或特定条件下随机因素对种群的影响;模拟模型是利用计算机模拟种群绝灭过程;岛屿生物地理学方法主要分析岛屿物种的分布和存活,证实分析模型和模拟模型。已有大量的文献研究统计随机性,环境随机性和自然灾害的行为特征,但遗传因素与种群生存力之间的关系还不清楚。建立包括四种随机性的综合性模型,广泛地检验PVA模型,系统地研制目标种的遗传和生态特性以及MVP的实际应用是PVA的发展趋势。     

种群生存力分析（PVA）的方法与应用

随着人们对资源的加速利用,生境丧失和破碎化导致物种濒危问题日益严重.以岛屿生物地理学为理论起源的种群生存力分析（PVA）,通过分析和模拟种群动态过程并建立灭绝概率与种群数量之间的关系,为濒危物种保护提供了重要的理论依据和研究途径.在过去的几十年中,种群生存力分析已成为保护生物学中一项重要的研究内容.目前种群生存力分析发展稳定,但对其实际预测能力和准确性尚存质疑,应用方面也有待进一步发展.种群生存力分析的进一步完善还需要在理论和方法上的创新,特别是籍于景观生态学和可持续性科学的理念,将空间分析手段、经济社会因素纳入到物种和种群的预测和管理上,从而使其 具有更完整的理论基础和更高的实用价值.为此,本文对种群生存力分析的历史、基本概念、研究方法、模型应用和准确性进行了综述,并提出了有关的研究展望.     

动物的易绝灭特征与保护优先性

各种人为干扰和自然因素促使大量物种走向濒危和绝灭。物种濒危和绝灭不是随机的。具有某些特征的物种容易濒危和绝灭 ,即易绝灭特征。易绝灭特征包括个体大 ,繁殖力低 ,扩散能力弱 ,营养级高 ,家域大 ,种群小 ,种群波动大 ,分布范围窄 ,种群密度低 ,栖息地特化程度高和特殊栖息地类型等。研究物种的易绝灭特征可以为生物多样性提供预防性 (proac tive)的优先保护措施。尽管物种的易绝灭特征已经用于实际的物种保护中 ,然而由于物种的各种特征对物种濒危和绝灭的影响十分复杂 ,各个易绝灭特征还有待于进一步深入的、准确的研究。探讨适合不同类群和不同地区物种的易绝灭特征是十分必要的。由于特殊地史发育、中医药传统和边境频繁的非法野生动物贸易 ,我国动物的濒危模式可能与国外有所不同。     

濒危物种保护方法研究进展

对濒危物种的科学内涵、濒危机制和物种保护方法进行综述。具体阐述了种群生存力分析 (PVA)技术和复合种群理论(Meta- population)在濒危物种保护中的应用 ;总结了分子生物学方法在濒危物种保护中的作用 ;探讨了“3S”技术在濒危物种保护中的应用前景。分析和评价了各种保护方法的实用性和局限性 ,提出了各种保护方法在濒危物种保护中的应用前景和发展趋势。总之 ,物种保护方法的不断发展开创了保护生物学研究的新篇章 ,怎样运用交叉学科理论和综合应用各种保护方法探讨物种濒危机制、制定濒危物种有效管理和保护措施 ,是需要进一步解决的科学问题。     

朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群生存力分析

到目前为止,只有一个野生朱鹮群体幸存下来,而且它的种群大小自1981年重新发现以来,一直在20只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法,借助漩涡模型,根据朱鹮14年的种群数据,总结和预测了其种群动态,并着重研究了朱鹮的濒危程度。结果显示,按过去10余年的生存状况,朱鹮在50年内绝灭的可能性是98.5%,平均绝灭时间为15.72 年。现存种群数量很低,所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明,当前的朱鹮种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。保护工作的优先项目是对猎杀和天敌的控制以及从各个方面提高朱鹮的生活质量。     

朱■（Nipponianippon）种群生存力分析

到目前为止,只有一个野生朱群体幸存下来,而且它的种群大小自１９８１年重新发现以来,一直在２０只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法,借助漩涡模型,根据朱１４年的种群数据,总结和预测了其种群动态,并着重研究了朱的濒危程度。结果显示,按过去１０余年的生存状况,朱在５０年内绝灭的可能性是９８．５％,平均绝灭时间为１５．７２年。现存种群数量很低,所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明,当前的朱种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。保护工作的优先项目是对猎杀和天敌的控制以及从各个方面提高朱的生活质量     

Allee效应对具有生境恢复的集合种群的影响

Allee效应与种群的灭绝密切相关,其研究对生态保护和管理至关重要。Allee效应对物种续存是潜在的干扰因素,濒危物种更容易受其影响,可能会增加生存于生境破碎化斑块的濒危物种的死亡风险,因此研究Allee效应对种群的动态和续存的影响是必要的。从包含由生物有机体对环境的修复产生的Allee效应的集合种群模型出发,引入由其他机制形成的Allee效应,建立了常微分动力系统模型和基于网格模型的元胞自动机模型。通过理论分析和计算机模拟表明:(1)强Allee效应不利于具有生境恢复的集合种群的续存;(2)生境恢复有利于种群续存;(3)局部扩散影响了集合种群的空间结构、动态行为和稳定性,生境斑块之间的局部作用将会减缓或消除集合种群的Allee效应,有利于集合种群的续存。     

Use of population viability analysis models for Atlantic and Pacific salmon recovery planning

Uncertainty and risk abound in making natural resource management decisions. Population viability analysis (PVA) includes a variety of qualitative or quantitative analyses to predict the future status of a population or collection of populations and to predict the risk of extinction (or quasi-extinction) over time given some assumptions of the factors driving population dynamics. In this paper, we review the various PVA models applied to Atlantic and Pacific salmon for determination of listing under the Endangered Species Act and in planning recovery actions. We also review the numerous cautions involved in developing PVA models and in interpreting their results. There have been a larger number of PVA models applied to Pacific salmon compared to Atlantic salmon due to the greater geographic range and number of species of Pacific salmon. Models for both Atlantic and Pacific salmon have ranged from simple models that view populations as simply a number of organisms to complex age- or stage-structured models depending on the purpose of the model and available data for model parameterization. The real value of PVA models to salmon conservation is not in making absolute predictions of the risk of extinction, but rather in evaluating relative effects of management alternatives on extinction risk and informing decision making within an adaptive management framework. As computing power, quantitative techniques, and knowledge of mechanistic linkages between terrestrial, freshwater, and marine environments advance, PVA models will become an even more powerful tool in conservation planning for salmon species.     

Considering threats to population viability of the endangered Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using VORTEX

Population viability analysis (PVA) has frequently been used in conservation biology to predict extinction rates for threatened or endangered species. In this study, we used VORTEX to model Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using previously collected ecological data. We focused on modelling population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. The minimum viable population size was found to be at least 50 gorals for 100 years, regardless of carrying capacity. However, populations with fewer than 50 gorals could not remain successful in the model. Inbreeding depression, catastrophes and supplementation also affected patterns of population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. Supplementation with new individuals had the strongest effect on extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity, followed by initial population size, inbreeding, catastrophes and carrying capacity. These results suggest that a supplementation by extra goral individuals from goral proliferation facilities would be the most helpful means for the restoration programme. More Korean goral-specific information regarding demographic and habitat parameters is needed for further PVA of the species.     

植物种群生存力分析研究进展

对十多年来国外植物PVA的研究进行了综合评述;具体分析了影响植物种群生存力的各种随机性因子及确定性因子;总结了植物PVA研究的方法步骤及采用的模拟模型;探讨了植物PVA的难点,PVA对管理措施的评价效果;并提出对今后植物PVA的研究展望,认为PVA是研究濒危植物种群灭绝及评价管理或保护措施的有力工具;发展描述复杂种间关系的多种种的PVA模型以及包含多个影响因素的PVA应用模型是未来植物PVA的研究方向。     

Important population viability analysis parameters for giant pandas (Aliuropoda melanoleuca)

Population viability analysis(PVA) is a tool to evaluate the risk of extinction for endangered species and aid conservation decision-making.The quality of PVA output is dependent on parameters related to population dynamics and life-history;however,it has been difficult to collect this information for the giant panda(Aliuropoda melanoleuca),a rare and endangered mammal native to China,confined to some 30 fragmented habitat patches.Since giant pandas are long-lived,mature late,have lower reproductive rates,and show little sexual dimorphism,obtaining data to perform adequate PVA has been difficult.Here,we develop a parameter sensitivity index by modeling the dynamics of six giant panda populations in the Minshan Mountains,in order to determine the parameters most influential to giant panda populations.Our data shows that the giant panda populations are most sensitive to changes in four female parameters:initial breeding age,reproductive rate,mortality rate between age 0 and 1,and mortality rate of adults.The parameter sensitivity index strongly correlated with initial population size,as smaller populations were more sensitive to changes in these four variables.This model suggests that demographic parameters of females have more influence on the results of PVA,indicating that females may play a more important role in giant panda population dynamics than males.Consequently,reintroduction of female individuals to a small giant panda population should be a high priority for conservation efforts.Our findings form a technical basis for the coming program of giant panda reintroduction,and inform which parameters are crucial to successfully and feasibly monitoring wild giant panda populations.     

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.     

A population matrix model and population viability analysis to predict the fate of endangered species in highly managed water systems

Matrix models and population viability analysis (PVA) have become useful tools to understand population attributes and dynamics. Demography analysis gives valuable information for the management of threatened species, and can be used to create action plans for their conservation. PVA is particularly useful in those species with small population sizes difficult to sample. By calculating the individual fate of each member of the population, PVA simulates temporal population changes and estimates extinction risk over a time period. Here we use these models to analyse the population of axolotl Ambystoma mexicanum , which has decreased more than six times within only 5 years. Its natural environment (the Xochimilco aquatic system within Mexico City) has deteriorated significantly in the last decades. The matrix analysis showed large oscillations in the axolotl population growth rate (damping behaviour), which could explain the fast density reduction in only few generations. Younger ages (eggs and larvae) showed the highest sensitivity and elasticity values, suggesting that the lack of food sources such as zooplankton or the increased predation by exotic carp and tilapia are capable to reduce axolotl density. PVA shows low extinction probabilities using laboratory data for younger ages. However, a small reduction in egg or larvae survival rate is capable to increase extinction probabilities to 100% in 20 years. Based on these results, we found that the best strategy to restore the axolotl population is to increase the survival rate of eggs and larvae by restoring the habitat, eradicating introduced fish and improving water quality, rather than implementing a reintroduction programme.