A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming.     

Acclimation to temperature of the response of photosynthesis to increased carbon dioxide concentration in Taraxacum officinale

The relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide in C₃ species normally increases strongly with increasing temperature. This results from the kinetic characteristics of Rubisco, and has potentially important implications for responses of vegetation to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. It is often assumed that because Rubisco characteristics are conservative, all C₃ species have the same temperature dependence of the response of photosynthesis to elevated carbon dioxide. However, in this field study of Taraxacum officinale, there were no significant differences in the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide among days with temperatures ranging from 15 to 34 °C. Nevertheless, short-term measurements indicated a strong temperature dependence of the stimulation. This suggested that acclimation to temperature caused the lack of variation in the seasonal data. Experiments in controlled environments indicated that complete acclimation of the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide occurred for growth temperatures of 10 – 25 °C. The apparent specificity of Rubisco for carbon dioxide relative to oxygen at 15 °C, as assayed in vivo by measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration at which carboxylation equalled oxygenation, also varied with growth temperature. Changes in the apparent specificity of Rubisco accounted for the acclimation of the temperature dependence of the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by elevated carbon dioxide. It is premature to conclude that low temperatures will necessarily reduce the relative stimulation of photosynthesis caused by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century

A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long‐term indirect effects on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two‐step process to estimate these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr^?1 burned (not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr^?1 at the beginning of the century, mostly in the boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr^?1 in the 1960s as a consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mha yr^?1. At the same time, burned areas increased exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr^?1 in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests in the closing years of the 20th century.     

温度升高对昆虫发生发展的影响

全世界地表平均温度在上个世纪增加了0.74℃,并且在未来还会持续增加。在过去的20年,气候变暖对生物系统的影响吸引了大量的研究。本文综述了由温度升高为主要驱动因子的气候变化对昆虫适合度的影响,主要从昆虫越冬存活率、化性(世代数)、扩散迁移、发生分布、物候关系5个方面阐述气候变暖对昆虫发生发展的作用,认为未来应长期进行昆虫种群动态监测预警,更关注气候变暖下植物-害虫-天敌互作关系的研究。     

Temperature-based population segregation in birch

Mean temperature of establishment years for warm‐ and cold‐year subpopulations of a naturally occurring stand of Betula pendula (birch) shows a difference equivalent to that between current temperatures and temperatures projected for 35–55 years hence, given ‘business as usual.’ The existence of ‘pre‐adapted’ individuals in standing tree populations would reduce temperature‐based advantages for invading species and, if general, bring into question assumptions currently used in models of global climate change. Our results demonstrate a methodology useful for investigating the important ecological issue of adaptation vs. range shifts as a means of response to climate change.     

Interannual variability in global soil respiration, 1980–94

We used a climate‐driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil‐CO₂ emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil‐to‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes. The mean annual global soil‐CO₂ flux over this 15‐y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3–81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil‐CO₂ emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil‐CO₂ emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests contributed more soil‐derived CO₂ to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (～30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil‐CO₂ emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil‐CO₂ production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO₂ concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands and deserts), interannual variability in soil‐CO₂ emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil‐CO₂ fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 Pg C y^?1 per °C. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil‐CO₂ emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO₂ emissions from soils.     

一类非自治捕食-被捕食系统的全局渐近稳定性

本文研究了一类非自治捕食-被捕食的周期系统．当周期为ω＞0时,在某些条件下证明了该系统正周期解的存在唯一性和全局渐近稳定性．     

A Framework to Link International Clinical Research to the Promotion of Justice in Global Health

How international research might contribute to justice in global health has not been substantively addressed by bioethics. Theories of justice from political philosophy establish obligations for parties from high‐income countries owed to parties from low and middle‐income countries. We have developed a new framework that is based on Jennifer Ruger's health capability paradigm to strengthen the link between international clinical research and justice in global health. The ‘research for health justice’ framework provides direction on three aspects of international clinical research: the research target, research capacity strengthening, and post‐trial benefits. It identifies the obligations of justice owed by national governments, research funders, research sponsors, and investigators to trial participants and host communities. These obligations vary from those currently articulated in international research ethics guidelines. Ethical requirements of a different kind are needed if international clinical research is to advance global health equity.     

Effects of species composition, land surface cover, CO2 concentration and climate on isoprene emissions from European forests.

Emissions of isoprene from terrestrial vegetation are known to affect atmospheric chemical properties, like its oxidation capacity or the concentration of tropospheric ozone. The latter is of concern, since besides being a potent greenhouse gas, O(3) is toxic for humans, animals, and plants even at relatively low concentrations. Isoprene-emitting forests in the vicinity of NO(x) pollution sources (like cities) can contribute considerably to O(3) formation, and to the peak concentrations observed during hot summer weather. The biogenic contribution to O(3) concentrations is generally thought to increase in a future, warmer climate--pushing values beyond health thresholds possibly even more frequently and over larger areas--given that emissions of isoprene are highly temperature-dependent but also because of the CO(2) fertilisation of forest productivity and leaf growth. Most projections of future emissions, however, do not include the possible CO(2)-inhibition of leaf isoprene metabolism. We explore the regional distribution of emissions from European woody vegetation, using a mechanistic isoprene-dynamic vegetation model framework. We investigate the interactive effects of climate and CO(2) concentration on forest productivity, species composition, and isoprene emissions for the periods 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Our projection of future emissions includes a direct CO(2)-isoprene inhibition. Across the model domain, we show that this direct effect has the potential to offset the stimulation of emissions that could be expected from warmer temperatures and from the increased productivity and leaf area of emitting vegetation. Changes in forest species composition that may result from climate change can play a substantial additional role in a region's future emissions. Changes in forest area or area planted in woody biofuels in general are not noticeable in the overall European forest isoprene budget, but--as was the case for changes in species composition--may substantially affect future projections in some regions of the continent.     

The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire

This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected under the ambient climate (climate potential). To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellite-derived land- and tree-cover maps. Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps show that vast areas of humid C(4) grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C(4) plants but also of C(3) shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. C(4) grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa.     

树木年轮分析在全球变化研究中的应用

树木年轮的宽度、密度、图像分析、同位素含量等都与气候因子温度、湿度以及大气成分的变化成复杂的相关关系。本文总结了树木年轮分析的几种主要研究方法以及在全球气候变化、大气污染以及重建大气CO2浓度中的应用,同时利用树木年轮分析对全球变化研究中存在的问题、争议等作了简要的探讨,并对未来全球变化中的年轮年代学研究的方向作了展望。     

银川市三甲医院职工医保总额预付制运行效果研究

目的 分析宁夏银川市三级甲等医院职工基本医疗保险总额预付制的基本运行情况以及综合实施效果变化,为更好的实施总额预付制提供合理的建议。方法 对7家三甲医院2012年以及2013年的出院人次、次均费用、次均医保支付、非医保支付指标进行统计对比,运用秩和比法综合评价7家三甲医院总额预付制实施的效果。结果 2013年7家三甲医院一共透支了34.88%,2013年较2012年次均费用、次均医保支付、非医保支付比例均呈现增长趋势,次均医保支付增长幅度与次均费用增长幅度不成比例,而且次均医保支付增长均远远高于次均费用增长。宁夏人民医院和宁夏医科大总院心脑血管病医院的RSR值小幅度增加,其余5家三甲医院的RSR值均降低。结论 7所三甲医院透支严重,医院承担很大超支的风险和压力,对医院的正常运营会有影响。总体来看,政策没有有效的控制医疗费用的增长,总额预付制的综合运行效果不明显。增强医保中心对医院的管理,医院内部要实行“总额控制、结构调整”的管理,健全信息系统,加强监督与管理。     

Elevated CO(2) and temperature alter net ecosystem C exchange in a young Douglas fir mesocosm experiment

We investigated the effects of elevated CO(2) (EC) [ambient CO(2) (AC) + 190 ppm] and elevated temperature (ET) [ambient temperature (AT) + 3.6 degrees C] on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of seedling Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) mesocosms. As the study utilized seedlings in reconstructed soil-litter-plant systems, we anticipated greater C losses through ecosystem respiration (R(e)) than gains through gross photosynthesis (GPP), i.e. negative NEE. We hypothesized that: (1) EC would increase GPP more than R(e), resulting in NEE being less negative; and (2) ET would increase R(e) more than GPP, resulting in NEE being more negative. We also evaluated effects of CO(2) and temperature on light inhibition of dark respiration. Consistent with our hypothesis, NEE was a smaller C source in EC, not because EC increased photosynthesis but rather because of decreased respiration resulting in less C loss. Consistent with our hypothesis, NEE was more negative in ET because R(e) increased more than GPP. The light level that inhibited respiration varied seasonally with little difference among CO(2) and temperature treatments. In contrast, the degree of light inhibition of respiration was greater in AC than EC. In our system, respiration was the primary control on NEE, as EC and ET caused greater changes in respiration than photosynthesis.     

林带和牧草地水量平衡的研究

本文从水量平衡观点对林带、牧草地和裸露地的水量平衡各分量的变化规律进行了探讨。林带、牧草地和裸露地水量平衡各分量的分配比例分别为:降水均为100%;蒸发散96.4%、95.7%和89.5%;坡地径流3.6%、4.3%和10.5%。由于林带有林冠和林地两个作用面组成,分别对它们的水量平衡各分量的组成及其变化规律作了分析。还论述了林带对河川径流的影响。     

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.     

Recent increase in body size of the American marten Martes americana in Alaska

Using museum specimens, we studied recent changes in skull size of the American marten Martes americana , in continental Alaska. In Alaska, global warming has resulted in milder winters that may contribute to an improved food supply in the wild. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that body size of the marten had increased during the second half of the 20th century, in response to global warming. We found that skull size, and by implication body size, increased significantly during the second half of the 20th century, possibly due to an improved food supply and/or lower metabolic demands in winter. Improved food availability in winter may result from the improved nutritional conditions for prey, and/or from increased access to prey resulting from a longer snow-free season. Longitude had a significant positive effect on skull size and a significant negative effect on teeth size. In Alaska, the climate is milder along the western coast and becomes harsher inland. Hence, the milder climate was associated with larger body size providing further support for our prediction that body size of the American marten was influenced by food availability and reduced energy expenditure. The negative relationship between longitude and teeth size may indicate a trend towards a larger prey in inland marten populations, but we have no data to support or refute this hypothesis.  © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 93 , 701–707.     

Genetic characterisation of the intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis in its southern distribution limit in South America

ABSTRACT

Schistosomiasis is a tropical disease caused by the digenean parasite Schistosoma mansoni. In South America it is transmitted to humans via freshwater snails of the genus Biomphalaria. In a global warming scenario, disease range expansions to subtropical countries are possible. For the first time, the distributions and genetic identification of Biomphalaria specimens in border regions of Uruguay are reported. The inclusion of Uruguayan samples allows a better understanding of the relationships between and within taxa of Biomphalaria. Samples were collected between 2015 and 2016 using hand nets. Initially, they were classified morphologically. They were then classified genetically by analysing a fragment of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of B. peregrina and B. occidentalis. Species belonging to the B. tenagophila complex were also recognised. Individuals initially identified from their external morphology as B. tenagophila tenagophila showed inconsistencies with the analysis of COI sequences that assigned them to B. occidentalis. Since the presence of schistosomiasis in Uruguay is likely to occur in the next few years, an exhaustive population survey of Biomphalaria taxa should be urgently developed to identify the presence of S. mansoni and the places most susceptible to be colonised by these snails.