Climate determinants of breeding and wintering ranges of lesser kestrels in Italy and predicted impacts of climate change

Climate warming would theoretically create conditions for the breeding range expansion of pseudo‐steppe Mediterranean and long‐distance migrant species and provide the possibility for these to overwinter in the same breeding areas. However, contemporary changes in rainfall regimes might have negative effects on the climate suitability and in turn, shrink species potential range. The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni is highly sensitive to rainfall oscillations and has recently extended its Italian breeding range towards northern latitudes and increasing its wintering records. We modelled the effects of temperature and rainfall on current and future climate suitability for lesser kestrels in both the breeding and wintering periods by using MaxEnt. Models were based on the distribution of 298 colonies and 40 wintering records. Future climate suitability was assessed under eight different scenarios. Spring rainfall amount resulted as the main determinant of breeding climate suitability, so its predicted reduction will determine a shrinkage in suitable areas (–42.10% in 2050; –32.07% in 2070). Specifically, the 66.05% of Italian colonies will be outside the climatically suitable area by 2050. However wide areas, suitable under current climate conditions, are still not occupied by lesser kestrel and allow the potential expansion of its Italian breeding range in the short term. Temperature seasonality mainly determined the species’ winter climate suitability, which is overall predicted to boost in the next decades (+145.03% in 2050; and +123.91% in 2070). All but one future scenarios predicted a northward shift of about 40 km for both breeding and wintering climate suitability. Despite its recent expansion, we have found that climate change will pose conservation concerns for the Italian breeding population of lesser kestrels. Indeed, changes in non‐climate factors will also outline the future suitability of the Italian range for lesser kestrels in both seasons with effects that might both strengthen or mitigate climate effects.     

气候振荡背景下宁夏枸杞地理分区变迁研究

宁夏枸杞在中国北方广泛分布,重建宁夏枸杞的历史地理分布格局,确定其环境分布限制,为其种质资源保护和植物形成与进化趋势研究提供理论依据。该研究以宁夏枸杞(Lycium barbarum)为代表,采用MaxEnt模型对该物种228例野生有效分布点和19个环境变量进行评估,以明确影响其分布的相关环境因子;并对末次间冰期以来不同时期的地理分布格局进行建模分析,以揭示在气候变暖条件下宁夏枸杞适宜分布区的变化趋势,预测未来(2050s和2070s)在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0三种CO₂排放情景下宁夏枸杞的潜在地理分布变化。结果表明：(1)温度对宁夏枸杞的分布至关重要,其中最冷季度平均温度是影响该物种分布最重要的气候因子。(2)所建模型对宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区的模拟结果与当今实际分布一致,但分布区域比实际分布区域大。(3)宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区面积在末次冰盛期进行了收缩,而在末次间冰期分布区面积明显扩大(最大为4.23×10⁶ km²),并呈现出向北推进和向南退缩的趋势。(4)在未来3种气候情景下宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区面积均趋于缩小;随着气候变暖的加剧,宁夏枸杞适宜分布区将向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移,且生境破碎化现象比现在更加严重。(5)在RCP2.6 2070s情景下,宁夏枸杞质心向西迁移108.66 km;在RCP6.0 2070s情景下,宁夏枸杞质心向东北迁移30.23 km。研究认为,宁夏枸杞的分布格局对气候变化具有强烈响应,随着气候变暖,宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区将向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移。     

不同气候情景下四子柳的亚洲潜在地理分布格局变化预测

四子柳(Salix tetrasperma Roxb.)为杨柳科柳属为数不多的分布区扩展到热带的物种之一,广泛分布于华南和东南亚地区,但其生境破碎化较为严重。该物种具有较高的园林绿化价值和生态价值,预测不同气候情景下该物种的地理分布将为四子柳的资源开发和合理利用乃至柳属的起源和分化研究提供重要的科学依据。利用四子柳全面且精确的分布信息和高分辨率环境数据,基于Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析,构建其末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、当代以及未来(2050,2070)的潜在空间分布格局,评价环境因子对分布模型的重要性,定量确定未来受到威胁的适宜生境区域和面积。结果表明,四子柳目前的适宜生境面积为234.65×10~4 km~2,主要位于东亚、南亚和东南亚的热带地区,气温年较差和年均降水量是限制其分布的主要环境因子。总体而言,从冰期至未来,四子柳的分布中心有南北往返迁移的趋势。四子柳在末次盛冰期时向西北方向扩张并开始出现于热带地区,表明该物种开始适应热带气候,进入全新世中期以后种群收缩并退缩到云贵高原的河谷地区和印度尼西亚的平原区域。随着全球气候变暖,在不同二氧化碳浓度路径下2050年和2070年四子柳的潜在适生境有可能破碎化增加,建议对缅甸东部及中部成片减少的边缘群体进行实时监测。     

Vital survivors: low genetic variation but high germination in glacial relict populations of the typical rock plant Draba aizoides

Glacial relict populations are isolated remnants of arctic-alpine species resulting from shifts of the distribution range during glaciations. Recently, the conservation value of relict populations has been emphasized, since they are adapted to stressful ecological conditions, which may be important for future distribution range shifts due to climate change. However, glacial relict populations have strongly been affected by historical fragmentation processes. Limited genetic variation and reduced reproduction can, therefore, be postulated for glacial relict populations. In our study we tested these assumptions. We investigated central European populations of the typical rock plant Draba aizoides from the Alps (considered as a core distribution area) and from the Swabian Alb, the Southern and Northern Franconian Jura (where its populations are considered glacial relict populations). We analysed genetic variation using molecular markers AFLPs and studied the reproduction of the populations in germination experiments. Glacial relict populations were genetically less variable and strongly differentiated, but they exhibited higher germination than populations from the Alps. From our results it can be concluded that glacial relict populations may have limited genetic variation, but they do not necessarily exhibit a limited reproductive capacity. Glacial relict populations are, therefore, vital survivors of the Pleistocene, which deserve full conservation attention, especially against the background of future climate change.     

Whole range and regional‐based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii)

The warmer and drier climates projected for the mid‐ to late‐21st century may have particularly adverse impacts on the cool temperate rainforests of southeastern Australia. Southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii; Nothofagaceae), a dominant tree species in these forests, may be vulnerable to minor changes in its climate envelope, especially at the edge of the species range, with Holocene fossil evidence showing local extinction of populations in response to small climate changes. We modelled the stability of this species climate envelope using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and two thresholds of presence/absence by projecting the modern climate envelope onto four Global Circulation Models forecasted for two time periods (2050s and 2070s). The climate envelope, as estimated from the species present climatic range, is predicted to shrink by up to 49% by the 2050s and up to 64% by the 2070s. The greatest predicted reduction is in Victoria with 91–100% of its current range being climatically unsuitable by the 2070s. Climatically similar areas to the species present range are predicted to remain in mountainous areas of western Tasmania, the Northeast Highlands of Tasmania, and the Baw Baw Plateau in the Central Highlands of Victoria. However, region‐specific modelling approaches made very different predictions from the whole‐range based models, especially in the severity of the predicted decline for Victorian populations of N. cunninghamii which occur in much warmer climates than the rest of the species geographical range. This shows that, for widespread species that span a range of climate zones, the exposure of current populations to climate change may be better modelled using a regional based approach. How the species responds to climate change will depend on the species ability to respond to drier and warmer climates and the concomitant increase in fire intensity.     

Low neutral and immunogenetic diversity in northern fringe populations of the green toad Bufotes viridis: implications for conservation

Genetic variation is often lower at high latitudes, which may compromise the adaptability and hence survival of organisms. Here we show that genetic variability is negatively correlated with northern latitude in European green toads (Bufotes viridis). The result holds true for both putatively neutral microsatellite variation and supposedly adaptive MHC Class IIB variation. In particular, our findings have bearing on the conservation status of this species in Sweden, on the northern limit of its distribution where local populations are small and fragmented. These genetically impoverished populations are closely related to other populations found around the Baltic Sea basin. The low neutral and adaptive variation in these fringe populations compared to population at central ranges confirms a pattern shared across all other amphibians so far studied. In Sweden, the situation of green toads is of concern as the remaining populations may not have the evolutionary potential to cope with present and future environmental challenges.

     

气候变化对邛崃山系大熊猫主食竹和栖息地分布的影响

气候变化对生物多样性的影响,特别是珍稀濒危物种的影响是当前的研究热点。全球气候变化对大熊猫的影响一直受到广泛关注。根据野外调查的大熊猫活动痕迹点、竹类分布点和主食竹扩散距离数据,采用Maxent模型,利用植被、地形、气候等因素,在RCP8.5下分析了2050年和2070年邛崃山系大熊猫主食竹分布及栖息地变化趋势。结果显示:(1)未来大熊猫适宜生境及主食竹气候适宜区面积均有所减少,到2070年分别减少37.2%和4.7%;(2)未来主食竹分布范围总体向高海拔扩展,但面积持续减少,到2070年分布面积比当前减少8.3%;(3)大熊猫栖息地未来有向高海拔扩张的趋势,在低海拔地区退缩明显,到2070年较当前减少27.2%;但到2070年大熊猫栖息地面积加上非栖息地有主食竹分布的面积,较现有大熊猫栖息地面积大1.5%;(4)受气候变化影响较严重的区域是邛崃山系南部以及低海拔地区,其余区域所受影响相对较小;(5)未来需要加强对受气候变化影响严重区域的监测与保护,特别是邛崃山系中部的大熊猫集中分布区。     

东北地区5个物种潜在栖息地变化与优化保护规划

气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果,获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据,提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物,包括黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)、驼鹿(Alces alces)、水獭(Lutra lutra)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)及黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris);结合最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代(2030s,2050s,2070s)的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果,获取东北地区合适的气候模式,了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响,同时开展物种保护规划,识别保护空缺,为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示,在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势,但不同气候模式之间存在差异;评价结果推荐CCSM4、Nor ESM1-M、Had GEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式,推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%,-73.93%,-78.46%(2030s,2050s,2070s)。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区,大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区,延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区,长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。     

Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Distributions of potential ranges of plant species are not yet fully known in Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict distributions of suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana under current and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) in Ethiopia. Eleven environmental variables with less correlation coefficients (r < 0.7) were used to make the prediction. Shifting in extents of habitat suitability and effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios were statistically analysed using independent t-test and linear model. We found decreasing area of highly suitable habitat from 0.51% to 0.46%, 0.36% and 0.33%, 0.24% for Prunus africana and 1.13% to 1.02%, 0.77% and 0.76%, 0.60% for Pouteria adolfi-friederici, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2070 respectively. Moist and dry afromontane forests are identified as the most suitable habitat for both species. Overall, our results suggest that climate change can promote dynamic suitable habitat niches under different future climate scenarios. Therefore, biodiversity conservation strategies should take into account habitat suitability dynamics issues and identify where to conserve species before implementing conservation practices.     

Climate change and range restriction of common salamanders in eastern Canada and the United States

The sensitivity of amphibian species to shifts in environmental conditions has been exhibited through long-term population studies and the projection of ecological niche models under expected conditions. Species in biodiversity hotspots have been the focus of ample predictive modeling studies, while, despite their significant ecological value, wide-ranging and common taxa have received less attention. We focused on predicting range restriction of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum), blue-spotted salamander (A. laterale), four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum), and red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) under future climate scenarios. Using bias-corrected future climate data and biodiversity database records, we developed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models under current conditions and for climate change projections in 2050 and 2070. We calculated positivity rates of species localities to represent proportions of habitat expected to remain climatically suitable with continued climate change. Models projected under future conditions predicted average positivity rates of 91% (89–93%) for the blue-spotted salamander, 23% (2–41%) for the spotted salamander, 4% (0.7–9%) for the four-toed salamander, and 61% (42–76%) for the red-backed salamander. Range restriction increased with time and greenhouse gas concentration for the spotted salamander, four-toed salamander, and red-backed salamander. Common, widespread taxa that often receive less conservation resources than other species are at risk of experiencing significant losses to their climatic ranges as climate change continues. Efforts to maintain populations of species should be focused on regions expected to experience fewer climatic shifts such as the interior and northern zones of species' distributions.     

Phylogeography of Potentilla fruticosa (Rosaceae) in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau revisited: a reappraisal and new insights

Background: Most empirical studies to date have suggested that alpine plants in the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) originated from the south-eastern QTP. However, previous phylogeographcial analysis of Potentilla fruticosa suggested that it diversified in the central QTP, which has also been assumed to have been a glacial refugium, and expanded to the north-eastern regions during the mid-Holocene period.

Aim: We reappraise this claim in the light of information acquired from sampling, haplotyping and analysing additional populations.

Methods: We sequenced the chloroplast trnT-L intergenic spacer of 346 individuals collected from 52 populations. We reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes through Bayesian and Network analysis, and used several methods for demographic analysis.

Results: Some common and highly divergent haplotypes were distributed in the central, western and south-eastern QTP. Mismatch and other population genetic analyses applied to our data suggested that a distinct range expansion had occurred between approximately 30,000 and 325,000 years ago (kya).

Conclusions: Besides the possible postglacial expansion in the north-eastern QTP, our results further suggested that the range of the species radically expanded across the whole Plateau before the last glacial maximum (around 18 kya) and the south-eastern, western and central QTP regions had together provided important refugia during recent glacial stages. These findings, in contrast to the previous conclusions, highlight the importance of adequate sampling strategies in phylogeographical studies.     

Current and future distributions of Espeletiinae (Asteraceae) in the Venezuelan Andes based on statistical downscaling of climatic variables and niche modelling

ABSTRACT

Background: Páramos are the high-elevation ecosystems of the humid tropical Andes, characterised by the presence of giant rosettes of the Espeletiinae subtribe (Asteraceae). Forecasted climate change is likely to reduce the extent of the area climatically suitable/occupied currently by Espeletiinae and their elevation distribution patterns.

Aims: The aim of this study was to estimate the potential impacts of forecasted climate change on the geographic distribution (extent of area and elevation distribution patterns) of 28 species of Espeletiinae that have been recorded in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela.

Methods: Six bioclimatic variables, downscaled to a 90 m × 90 m cell size, were used to construct species distribution models (SDM) for the 28 species to model their current and likely future distribution (2070) by using two general circulation models and four representative concentration pathways (RCP).

Results: Nine species were estimated to have potential distribution over less than 1000 km² and five over less than 500 km², in current climatic conditions. Fifteen and eight species had elevation spans narrower than 1000 m and 500 m, respectively. No significant differences in modelled areas or spans were detected between north, central and south sections of the Cordillera de Mérida. Mean ± SE future reduction in the extent of area climatically suitable were estimated between 51.3% ± 6.3% (RCP2.6) and 78.1% ± 5.3% (RCP8.5), coupled with upward range retreat of between 277.8 m ± 27.4 m (RCP2.6) and 762.5 m ± 59.8 m (RCP8.5).

Conclusions: Our study predicts large reductions in modelled area and important upward shifts in the distribution of Venezuelan Espeletiinae by 2070 compared to their current distribution.     

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre‐1970s (1922–1969) and the post‐1970s (1970–2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high‐latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.     

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.     

Comparative phylogeography of two related plant species with overlapping ranges in Europe, and the potential effects of climate change on their intraspecific genetic diversity

Background  

The aim of the present study was to use a combined phylogeographic and species distribution modelling approach to compare the glacial histories of two plant species with overlapping distributions, Orthilia secunda (one-sided wintergreen) and Monotropa hypopitys (yellow bird's nest). Phylogeographic analysis was carried out to determine the distribution of genetic variation across the range of each species and to test whether both correspond to the "classic" model of high diversity in the south, with decreasing diversity at higher latitudes, or whether the cold-adapted O. secunda might retain more genetic variation in northern populations. In addition, projected species distributions based on a future climate scenario were modelled to assess how changes in the species ranges might impact on total intraspecific diversity in both cases.     

Medicinal plants in peril due to climate change in the Himalaya

Climate change is causing many irreversible changes in the Himalayan ecosystems. In this study, an attempt was made to understand the ecological response of medicinal plant species to changing climate conditions in the Sikkim Himalaya, a part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach was used to analyze the potential habitat distribution of 163 medicinal plant species in current and future climates (2050, 2070). An attempt was also made to identify the most suitable areas for conservation and test the effectiveness of the existing Protected Area (PA) network in conserving medicinal plant species in current and future climate scenarios through the Habitat Suitability and Overlap Analyses. SDM analyses revealed that the majority of the medicinal plant species are found in the tropical and sub-tropical regions in the Sikkim Himalaya (300–2000 m) at present. In future climates, however, most of the species are likely to show an upward and northward shift in their distributions. Maximum species-rich regions are likely to shift by 200 m and 400 m in 2050 and 2070, respectively. A total of 13–16% of medicinal plant species currently found in the region are likely to lose their existing potential habitats by 2050 and 2070. The results highlight that species that are restricted to specific localities and have a narrow elevational distribution are the most vulnerable species and likely to go extinct due to climate change in the Himalaya. Habitat suitability analyses indicated that elevations ranging from 860 to 2937 m serve as highly suitable habitats for medicinal plant species in Sikkim Himalaya. Consequently, these areas can be focused for conservation actions in order to mitigate the effect of climate change. The results of Overlap Analysis indicated that out of 8 PAs in Sikkim Himalaya, only 5 PAs are effective in the conservation of medicinal plant species in current and future climates. The boundaries of existing PAs need to be expanded in order to accommodate the upward shifts in the spatial distribution of species, especially in the case of those PAs that are located in the lower elevations or tropical regions. This study provides a novel integrated framework for use of ecological informatics in assessing the species vulnerability to climate change and planning conservation priorities.     

Genetic implications of phylogeographical patterns in the conservation of the boreal wetland butterfly Colias palaeno (Pieridae)

The boreo‐montane wetland butterfly species Colias palaeno has a European distribution from the Alps to northern Fennoscandia. Within its European range, the species’ populations have shrunk dramatically in recent historical times. Therefore, detailed baseline knowledge of the genetic makeup of the species is pivotal in planning potential conservation strategies. We collected 523 individuals from 21 populations across the entire European range and analyzed nuclear (20 allozyme loci) and mitochondrial (600 bp of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) genetic markers. The markers revealed contrasting levels of genetic diversity and divergence: higher in allozymes and lower in mitochondrial sequences. Five main groups were identified by allozymes: Alps, two Czech groups, Baltic countries, Fennoscandia, and Poland. The haplotype mitochondrial network indicates a recent range expansion. The most parsimonious interpretation for our results is the existence of a continuous Würm glacial distribution in Central Europe, with secondary disjunction during the Last Glacial Maximum into a south‐western and a north‐eastern fragment and subsequent moderate differentiation. Both groups present signs of postglacial intermixing in the Czech Republic. However, even a complete extinction in this region would not considerably affect the species’ genetic basis, as long as the source populations in the Alps and in northern Europe, comprising the most relevant evolutionary units for conservation, are surviving.     

Assessing the climate change effects on the distribution pattern of the Azerbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus)

Climate change is a grave danger for humans and a looming threat to Earth's biodiversity in the twenty-first century. Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change is critical for practical conservation efforts. Due to their limited dispersal ability, amphibians are one of the most vulnerable groups of vertebrates to climate change. Among them, the species that inhabit mountains suffer a tremendous amount of climate change-induced pressures. We, therefore, adopted the Azerbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus), which currently inhabits Northwest Iran, North Iraq, and Southeast Turkey, as a case study for assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution patterns of mountain amphibians. By applying the species distribution models (SDMs) in this study, we tried to hindcast the species distribution area in the past and illustrate the impacts of climate change on its distribution in the present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climate conditions. Also, the patch metrics have been deployed for identifying habitat fragmentation. Our results indicate a more than 50% rise in the species’ current suitable habitats compared to its glacial refugia. The suitable habitat is expected to gradually decrease in RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Among the three countries in which the species occurs, its distribution overlaps with protected areas only in Iraq. The number of habitat patches will grow and reach approximately 20 to 60 patches by 2070 and the average area of the patches will decrease throughout this time. Aside from the numerous threats that endanger the species, climate change puts the long-term existence of Azerbaijan Newt in jeopardy. The results of this study stress the urgent need for taking extreme measures on the species management and conserving its remnant habitat patches.     

Relics of the Europe's warm past: phylogeography of the Aesculapian snake

Understanding how species responded to past climate change can provide information about how they may respond to the current global warming. Here we show how a European reptile species responded to the last natural global warming event at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition that led to the Holocene climatic optimum approximately 5000-8000 years ago. The Aesculapian snake, Zamenis longissimus, is a thermophilous species whose present-day distribution in the southern half of Europe is a remnant of much wider range during the Holocene climatic optimum when populations occurred as far north as Denmark. These northern populations went extinct as the climate cooled, and presently the species is extinct from all central Europe, except few relic populations in locally suitable microhabitats in Germany and the Czech Republic. Our phylogenetic and demographic analyses identified two major clades that expanded from their respective western and eastern refugia after the last glacial maximum (18,000-23,000 years ago) and contributed approximately equally to the present range. Snakes from the relic northern populations carried the Eastern clade, showing that it was primarily the snakes from the eastern, probably Balkan, refugium that occupied the central and northern Europe during the Holocene climatic optimum. Two small, deep-branching clades were identified in near the Black Sea and in Greece. These clades provide evidence for two additional refugia, which did not successfully contribute to the colonization of Europe. If, as our results suggest, some populations responded to the mid-Holocene global warming by shifting their ranges further north than other populations of the same species, knowing what populations were able to expand in different species may provide information about what populations will be important for the species' ability to cope with the current global warming.     

Past,present, and future predictions on the suitable habitat of the Slender racer (Orientocoluber spinalis) using species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) across past, present, and future timelines provide insights into the current distribution of these species and their reaction to climate change. Specifically, if a species is threatened or not well‐known, the information may be critical to understand that species. In this study, we computed SDMs for Orientocoluber spinalis, a monotypic snake genus found in central and northeast Asia, across the past (last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid‐Holocene), present, and future (2070s). The goal of the study was to understand the shifts in distribution across time, and the climatic factors primarily affecting the distribution of the species. We found the suitable habitat of O. spinalis to be persistently located in cold‐dry winter and hot summer climatic areas where annual mean temperature, isothermality, and annual mean precipitation were important for suitable habitat conditions. Since the last glacial maximum, the suitable habitat of the species has consistently shifted northward. Despite the increase in suitable habitat, the rapid alterations in weather regimes because of climate change in the near future are likely to greatly threaten the southern populations of O. spinalis, especially in South Korea and China. To cope with such potential future threats, understanding the ecological requirements of the species and developing conservation plans are urgently needed.