Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas

Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species'' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world''s rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species‐specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change.     

Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds

Over the past few decades, land-use and climate change have led to substantial range contractions and species extinctions. Even more dramatic changes to global land cover are projected for this century. We used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios to evaluate the exposure of all 8,750 land bird species to projected land-cover changes due to climate and land-use change. For this first baseline assessment, we assumed stationary geographic ranges that may overestimate actual losses in geographic range. Even under environmentally benign scenarios, at least 400 species are projected to suffer >50% range reductions by the year 2050 (over 900 by the year 2100). Although expected climate change effects at high latitudes are significant, species most at risk are predominantly narrow-ranged and endemic to the tropics, where projected range contractions are driven by anthropogenic land conversions. Most of these species are currently not recognized as imperiled. The causes, magnitude and geographic patterns of potential range loss vary across socioeconomic scenarios, but all scenarios (even the most environmentally benign ones) result in large declines of many species. Whereas climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss. A vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics, coupled with more ambitious goals to reduce climate change, will be needed to minimize global extinctions.     

Forecasting climate-driven habitat changes for Australian freshwater fishes

Aims

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on species' distributions into the future. Freshwater fishes, an important component of freshwater ecosystems, are no exception. Here, we project shifts in suitable conditions for Australian freshwater fishes under different climate change scenarios to identify species that may experience significant declines in habitat suitability.

Location

Australia.

Methods

We use MAXENT bioclimatic models to estimate the effect of climate change on the suitable conditions for 154 species of Australian freshwater fishes, of which 109 are endemic and 29 are threatened with extinction. Suitable conditions for freshwater fish species are modelled using three different Earth System climate models (ESMs) under two different emission scenarios to the year 2100. For each species, we examine potential geographic shifts in the distribution of suitable conditions from the present day to 2100 and quantify how habitat suitability may change at currently occupied sites by the end of this century.

Results

Broadscale poleward shifts in suitable conditions are projected for Australian freshwater fishes by an average of up to 0.38° (~180 km) across all species, depending on the emission scenario. Considerable loss of suitable conditions is forecast to occur within currently recognized distributional extents by 2100, with a mean projected loss of up to 17.5% across species. Predicted geographic range shifts and declines are larger under a high-emission scenario. Threatened species are projected to be more adversely affected than nonthreatened species.

Main Conclusions

Our models identify species and geographic regions that may be vulnerable to climate change, enabling freshwater fish conservation into the future.     

Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change

Aim Existing climate envelope models give an indication of broad scale shifts in distribution, but do not specifically provide information on likely future population changes useful for conservation prioritization and planning. We demonstrate how these techniques can be developed to model likely future changes in absolute density and population size as a result of climate change. Location Great Britain. Methods Generalized linear models were used to model breeding densities of two northerly‐ and two southerly‐distributed bird species as a function of climate and land use. Models were built using count data from extensive national bird monitoring data and incorporated detectability to estimate absolute abundance. Projections of likely future changes in the distribution and abundance of these species were made by applying these models to projections of future climate change under two emissions scenarios. Results Models described current spatial variation in abundance for three of the four species and produced modelled current estimates of national populations that were similar to previously published estimates for all species. Climate change was projected to result in national population declines in the two northerly‐distributed species, with declines for Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata projected to be particularly severe. Conversely, the abundances of the two southerly distributed species were projected to increase nationally. Projected maps of future abundance may be used to identify priority areas for the future conservation of each species. Main conclusions The analytical methods provide a framework to make projections of impacts of climate change on species abundance, rather than simply projected range changes. Outputs may be summarized at any spatial scale, providing information to inform future conservation planning at national, regional and local scales. Results suggest that as a consequence of climate change, northerly distributed bird species in Great Britain are likely to become an increasingly high conservation priority within the UK.     

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century

Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process‐based growth model 3‐PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40 000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution ≥70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200 m yr^?1 to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of selected North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios

1. North America has a diverse array of mammalian species. Model projections indicate significant variations in future climate conditions of North America, and the habitats of woodland mammals of this continent may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate.
2. We report on the potential spatial distributions of 13 wide-ranging, relatively common species of North American woodland mammals under future climate scenarios.
3. We examined the potential influence of the mean and seasonal climate variables on the distribution of species. Presence-only occurrence records of species, four predictor variables, two future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), and two time steps (current and 2070) were used to build species’ distribution models using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt).
4. Our results suggested that overall, 11 of the 13 species are likely to gain climatically suitable space (regions where climate conditions will be similar to those of area currently occupied) at the continental scale, but American marten Martes americana and ‘woodland’ caribou Rangifer tarandus are likely to lose suitable climate range by 2070. Furthermore, climate space is likely to be expanding northwards under future climate scenarios for most of the mammals, and many jurisdictions in the border region between Canada and the USA are likely to lose iconic species, such as moose Alces alces. We identified regions as potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia, which are increasingly considered to be important for biodiversity conservation.
5. The model results suggest significant implications for conservation planning for the 13 mammalian species under global climate change, especially at fine spatial scales. Numerous species that are presently common at their southern range edge will be functionally or completely extirpated in 50 years. The potential in situ and ex situ climate change refugia could provide an effective support for adaptive strategies aimed at species conservation planning.

     

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.     

Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau,China

Climate change‐induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche‐based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.     

Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

Aim

Species are expected to disperse poleward in response to climate change. For species that are endemic to the high latitudes, this implies that many in the future would face a “no-where-to-go” situation as they are currently occupying the northernmost portion of the continent. Further, because endemism may arise from a combination of physical barriers, climate and geological history, the persistence of many species may require spatial matching of multiple environmental factors within a limited dispersal space. Thus, it is not clear how endemic species might spatially adjust their distributions in response to climate change and whether there are future climate change refugia for these species.

Location

Northwest North America.

Taxa

Plants.

Time Period

Current and the future (2040).

Methods

We used ensemble bioclimatic models to evaluate drivers and directional patterns of future change in the distributions of 66 North American Beringian and amphi-Beringian species currently occurring in Alaska and the Yukon. We explored the spatial pattern of species richness, losses and climate change refugia across the region.

Results

More than 80% of the species showed northward shifts in their latitudinal centroids under intermediate warming and are expected to shift their range northward by more than 140 km on average by 2040. Additionally, more than 60% were projected to experience range contractions and up to 20% of the species would have the potential to expand their ranges by more than 100%.

Main Conclusions

Suitable habitat for endemic species in northwest North America is expected to decline significantly, especially for species occupying the Arctic tundra. Although the models identified several potential refugia from future climate change, especially at high latitude and elevation, whether the species would be able to colonize new habitats on their own and/or capitalize sufficiently on in situ refugia remains a pertinent conservation question.     

Meta‐analyzing the likely cross‐species responses to climate change

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential geographic distributions. Here we meta‐analyzed the likely effects of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from 25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred “within species” (i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and 81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological correlates). Using meta‐analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated that one can combine and reduce species‐specific effects with high uncertainty in ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using meta‐analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of climate change‐induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.     

Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.     

Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive shrub, Lantana camara L

The threat posed by invasive species, in particular weeds, to biodiversity may be exacerbated by climate change. Lantana camara L. (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world. It has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide, including Australia. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this invasive species under current and future climate will be useful in planning better strategies to manage the invasion. A process-oriented niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The potential distribution of lantana under historical climate exceeded the current distribution in some areas of the world, notably Africa and Asia. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for L. camara globally were projected to contract. However, some areas were identified in North Africa, Europe and Australia that may become climatically suitable under future climates. In South Africa and China, its potential distribution could expand further inland. These results can inform strategic planning by biosecurity agencies, identifying areas to target for eradication or containment. Distribution maps of risk of potential invasion can be useful tools in public awareness campaigns, especially in countries that have been identified as becoming climatically suitable for L. camara under the future climate scenarios.     

A model-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of low dispersal vertebrates to landscape fragmentation under environmental change

Environmental changes are driving rapid geographic shifts of suitable environmental conditions for species. These might survive by tracking those shifts, however successful responses will depend on the spatial distribution of suitable habitats (current and future) and on their connectivity. Most herptiles (i.e., amphibians and reptiles) have low dispersal abilities, and therefore herptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to environmental changes. Here we assessed the vulnerability of herptile species to future climate and land use changes in fragmented landscapes. We developed and tested a methodological approach combining the strengths of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and of functional connectivity analysis. First, using SDMs we forecasted current and future distributions of potential suitable areas as well as range dynamics for four herptile species in Portugal. SDM forecasts for 2050 were obtained under two contrasting emission scenarios, translated into moderate (low-emissions scenario) or large (high-emissions scenario) changes in climate and land use conditions. Then, we calculated and analysed functional connectivity from areas projected to lose environmental suitability towards areas keeping suitable conditions. Landscape matrix resistance and barrier effects of the national motorway network were incorporated as the main sources of fragmentation. Potential suitable area was projected to decrease under future conditions for most test species, with the high-emissions scenario amplifying the losses or gains. Spatiotemporal patterns of connectivity between potentially suitable areas signalled the most important locations for maintaining linkages and migration corridors, as well as potential conflicts due to overlaps with the current motorway network. By integrating SDM projections with functional connectivity analysis, we were able to assess and map the vulnerability of distinct herptile species to isolation or extinction under environmental change scenarios. Our framework provides valuable information, with fairly low data requirements, for optimizing biodiversity management and mitigation efforts, aiming to reduce the complex and often synergistic negative impacts of multiple environmental change drivers. Implications for conservation planning and management are discussed from a global change adaptation perspective.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa''s Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4^th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.     

Land Use Compounds Habitat Losses under Projected Climate Change in a Threatened California Ecosystem

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21^st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.     

Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges.     

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.     

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre‐1970s (1922–1969) and the post‐1970s (1970–2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high‐latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.     

How biotic interactions may alter future predictions of species distributions: future threats to the persistence of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia

Aim With climate change, reliable predictions of future species geographic distributions are becoming increasingly important for the design of appropriate conservation measures. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict geographic range shifts in response to climate change. However, because species communities are likely to change with the climate, accounting for biotic interactions is imperative. A shortcoming of introducing biotic interactions in SDMs is the assumption that biotic interactions remain the same under changing climatic factors, which is disputable. We explore the performance of SDMs while including biotic interactions. Location Fennoscandia, Europe. Methods We investigate the appropriateness of the inclusion of biotic factors (predator pressure and prey availability) in assessing the future distribution of the arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) in Fennoscandia by means of SDM, using the algorithm MaxEnt. Results Our results show that the inclusion of biotic interactions enhanced the accuracy of SDMs to predict the current arctic fox distribution, and we argue that the accuracy of future predictions might also be enhanced. While the range of the arctic fox is predicted to have decreased by 43% in 2080 because of temperature‐related variables, projected increases in predator pressure and reduced prey availability are predicted to constrain the potential future geographic range of the arctic fox in Fennoscandia 13% more. Main conclusions The results indicate that, provided one has a good knowledge of past changes and a clear understanding of interactions in the community involved, the inclusion of biotic interactions in modelling future geographic ranges of species increases the predictive power of such models. This likely has far‐reaching impacts upon the design and implementation of possible conservation and management plans. Control of competing predators and supplementary feeding are suggested as necessary management actions to preserve the Fennoscandian arctic fox population in the face of climate change.