Reasons for Missing Antiretroviral Therapy: Results from a Multi-Country Study in Tanzania,Uganda, and Zambia

Objectives

To identify the reasons patients miss taking their antiretroviral therapy (ART) and the proportion who miss their ART because of symptoms; and to explore the association between symptoms and incomplete adherence.

Methods

Secondary analysis of data collected during a cross-sectional study that examined ART adherence among adults from 18 purposefully selected sites in Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. We interviewed 250 systematically selected patients per facility (≥18 years) on reasons for missing ART and symptoms they had experienced (using the HIV Symptom Index). We abstracted clinical data from the patients’ medical, pharmacy, and laboratory records. Incomplete adherence was defined as having missed ART for at least 48 consecutive hours during the past 3 months.

Results

Twenty-nine percent of participants reported at least one reason for having ever missed ART (1278/4425). The most frequent reason was simply forgetting (681/1278 or 53%), followed by ART-related hunger or not having enough food (30%), and symptoms (12%). The median number of symptoms reported by participants was 4 (IQR: 2–7). Every additional symptom increased the odds of incomplete adherence by 12% (OR: 1.1, 95% CI: 1.1–1.2). Female participants and participants initiated on a regimen containing stavudine were more likely to report greater numbers of symptoms.

Conclusions

Symptoms were a common reason for missing ART, together with simply forgetting and food insecurity. A combination of ART regimens with fewer side effects, use of mobile phone text message reminders, and integration of food supplementation and livelihood programmes into HIV programmes, have the potential to decrease missed ART and hence to improve adherence and the outcomes of ART programmes.     

Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya

Background

Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals’ intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been examined previously.

Methods

HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants’ time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS). Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%.

Results

Overall, 44% (96/220) of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50). MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25).

Conclusion

High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.     

Comparisons of Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy in a High- Risk Population in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Reports on antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence are scare in China; we performed this meta-analysis to estimate ART adherence rates in different populations at high risk for HIV transmission in China.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database (Chinese), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese), and Wanfang (Chinese) to identify studies published from January 1985 to May 2015. We used random-effects meta-analysis to calculate weighted mean estimates across studies and 95% CIs. Data were pooled with proportions transformed prior to pooling using the Freeman–Tukey double arcsine transformation and then back transformed to the original scale. We calculated the I² (and its 95% confidence intervals) and tau² to assess between-study heterogeneity.

Results

We identified 36 eligible articles, including 6885 HIV-positive individuals, reporting ART adherence. Pooled analysis produced an estimate of 77.61% (95% CI = 71.63–83.08) of patients with HIV with adequate adherence; however, high heterogeneity was observed between studies (I² = 96.60%, 95%CI = 96.00%-97.20%; tau² = 0.16). Three studies, which included 149 old HIV-infected patients, reported the highest ART adequate adherence rate (89.39%, 95% CI = 72.01–99.26) with high heterogeneity between the studies (I² = 86.20%, 95%CI = 60.00–95.20%; tau² = 0.13). While, only two studies, which included 143 heterosexual transmission group (HTG) patients, reported the lowest ART adequate adherence rate (51.55%, 95% CI = 41.33–61.71) with low heterogeneity between the studies (I² = 31.3%, tau² = 0.007). In the multivariable meta-regression model, high-risk populations was the main factor explaining heterogeneity (variance explained 28.14%).

Conclusions

ART adherence in some high-risk populations (e.g., heterosexual transmission group) is below the recommended levels for maintaining virologic suppression. It is crucial to develop comprehensive intervention strategies to promote ART adherence in high-risk populations and effectively prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS in China.     

A Randomized Trial of Time-Limited Antiretroviral Therapy in Acute/Early HIV Infection

Background

It has been proposed that initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) very soon after establishment of HIV infection may be beneficial by improving host control of HIV replication and delaying disease progression.

Methods

People with documented HIV infection of less than 12 months’ duration in Baltimore MD and seven Canadian sites were randomized to either a) observation and deferred ART, or b) immediate treatment with ART for 12 months. All subjects not receiving ART were followed quarterly and permanent ART was initiated according to contemporaneous treatment guidelines. The endpoint of the trial was total ART-free time from study entry until initiation of permanent ART.

Results

One hundred thirteen people were randomized, 56 to the observation arm and 57 to the immediate treatment arm. Twenty-three had acute (<2 months) infection and 90 early (2–12 months) infection. Of those randomized to the immediate treatment arm, 37 completed 12 months of ART according to protocol, 9 declined to stop ART after 12 months, and 11 were nonadherent to the protocol or lost to follow-up. Comparing those in the observation arm to either those who completed 12 months of ART or all 56 who were randomized to immediate ART, there was no significant difference between the arms in treatment-free interval after study entry, which was about 18 months in both arms.

Conclusions

This study did not find a benefit from administration of a brief, time-limited (12-month) course of ART in acute or early HIV infection.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00106171     

Livelihood Experiences and Adherence to HIV Antiretroviral Therapy among Participants in a Food Assistance Pilot in Bolivia: A Qualitative Study

Introduction

Health and development organizations increasingly promote livelihood interventions to improve health and economic outcomes for people living with HIV (PLHIV) receiving treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART). In-depth understanding about how PLHIV make labor decisions in the context of treatment for HIV – and treatment decisions in the context of their livelihoods – is essential to guiding intervention design and developing hypotheses for future research on livelihoods and ART. However, few studies have explored the perspectives of PLHIV regarding integration of livelihoods and ART in urban, resource-limited settings.

Methods

Qualitative interviews explored the livelihood experiences of food insecure ART patients in four Bolivian cities (n = 211). Topics included work-related barriers to ART adherence, HIV-related barriers to work, and economic coping mechanisms. Themes were identified using content coding procedures, with two coders to maximize reliability.

Results

Participants reported complex economic lives often characterized by multiple economic activities, including both formal and informal labor. They struggled to manage ART treatment and livelihoods simultaneously, and faced a range of interpersonal and structural barriers. In particular, lack of HIV status disclosure, stigma, and discrimination were highly salient issues for study participants and likely to be unique to people with HIV, leading to conflict around requesting time off for clinic visits, resentment from co-workers about time off, and difficulties adhering to medication schedules. In addition, health system issues such as limited clinic hours or drug shortages exacerbated the struggle to balance economic activities with HIV treatment adherence.

Conclusions

Improved policy-level efforts to enforce existing anti-discrimination laws, reduce HIV-related stigma, and expand health services accessibility could mitigate many of the barriers discussed by our participants, improve adherence, and reduce the need for livelihoods interventions.     

Dried Blood Spots for Viral Load Monitoring in Malawi: Feasible and Effective

Objectives

To evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of dried blood spots (DBS) use for viral load (VL) monitoring, describing patient outcomes and programmatic challenges that are relevant for DBS implementation in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We recruited adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients from five district hospitals in Malawi. Eligibility reflected anticipated Ministry of Health VL monitoring criteria. Testing was conducted at a central laboratory. Virological failure was defined as >5000 copies/ml. Primary outcomes were program feasibility (timely result availability and patient receipt) and effectiveness (second-line therapy initiation).

Results

We enrolled 1,498 participants; 5.9% were failing at baseline. Median time from enrollment to receipt of results was 42 days; 79.6% of participants received results within 3 months. Among participants with confirmed elevated VL, 92.6% initiated second-line therapy; 90.7% were switched within 365 days of VL testing. Nearly one-third (30.8%) of participants with elevated baseline VL had suppressed (<5,000 copies/ml) on confirmatory testing. Median period between enrollment and specimen testing was 23 days. Adjusting for relevant covariates, participants on ART >4 years were more likely to be failing than participants on therapy 1–4 years (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.8); older participants were less likely to be failing (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98). There was no difference in likelihood of failure based on clinical symptoms (RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.65-2.11).

Conclusions

DBS for VL monitoring is feasible and effective in real-world clinical settings. Centralized DBS testing may increase access to VL monitoring in remote settings. Programmatic outcomes are encouraging, especially proportion of eligible participants switched to second-line therapy.     

Effect of a Multi-Dimensional and Inter-Sectoral Intervention on the Adherence of Psychiatric Patients

Background

In psychiatry, hospital stays and transitions to the ambulatory sector are susceptible to major changes in drug therapy that lead to complex medication regimens and common non-adherence among psychiatric patients. A multi-dimensional and inter-sectoral intervention is hypothesized to improve the adherence of psychiatric patients to their pharmacotherapy.

Methods

269 patients from a German university hospital were included in a prospective, open, clinical trial with consecutive control and intervention groups. Control patients (09/2012-03/2013) received usual care, whereas intervention patients (05/2013-12/2013) underwent a program to enhance adherence during their stay and up to three months after discharge. The program consisted of therapy simplification and individualized patient education (multi-dimensional component) during the stay and at discharge, as well as subsequent phone calls after discharge (inter-sectoral component). Adherence was measured by the “Medication Adherence Report Scale” (MARS) and the “Drug Attitude Inventory” (DAI).

Results

The improvement in the MARS score between admission and three months after discharge was 1.33 points (95% CI: 0.73–1.93) higher in the intervention group compared to controls. In addition, the DAI score improved 1.93 points (95% CI: 1.15–2.72) more for intervention patients.

Conclusion

These two findings indicate significantly higher medication adherence following the investigated multi-dimensional and inter-sectoral program.

Trial Registration

German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00006358     

“An Impediment to Living Life”: Why and How Should We Measure Stiffness in Polymyalgia Rheumatica?

Objectives

To explore patients’ concepts of stiffness in polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR), and how they think stiffness should be measured.

Methods

Eight focus groups were held at three centres involving 50 patients with current/previous PMR. Each group had at least one facilitator and one rapporteur making field notes. An interview schedule was used to stimulate discussion. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed using an inductive thematic approach.

Results

Major themes identified were: symptoms: pain, stiffness and fatigue; functional impact; impact on daily schedule; and approaches to measurement. The common subtheme for the experience of stiffness was “difficulty in moving”, and usually considered as distinct from the experience of pain, albeit with a variable overlap. Some participants felt stiffness was the “overwhelming” symptom, in that it prevented them carrying out “fundamental activities” and “generally living life”. Diurnal variation in stiffness was generally described in relation to the daily schedule but was not the same as stiffness severity. Some participants suggested measuring stiffness using a numeric rating scale or a Likert scale, while others felt that it was more relevant and straightforward to measure difficulty in performing everyday activities rather than about stiffness itself.

Conclusions

A conceptual model of stiffness in PMR is presented where stiffness is an important part of the patient experience and impacts on their ability to live their lives. Stiffness is closely related to function and often regarded as interchangeable with pain. From the patients’ perspective, visual analogue scales measuring pain and stiffness were not the most useful method for reporting stiffness; participants preferred numerical rating scales, or assessments of function to reflect how stiffness impacts on their daily lives. Assessing function may be a pragmatic solution to difficulties in quantifying stiffness.     

Determinants of Adherence to Treatment in Hypertensive Patients of African Descent and the Role of Culturally Appropriate Education

Background

In Western countries, better knowledge about patient-related determinants of treatment adherence (medication and lifestyle) is needed to improve treatment adherence and outcomes among hypertensive ethnic minority patients of African descent.

Objective

To identify patient-related determinants of adherence to lifestyle and medication recommendations among hypertensive African Surinamese and Ghanaian patients with suboptimal treatment results (SBP≥140) living in the Netherlands and how culturally appropriate hypertension education (CAHE) influenced those determinants.

Methods

This study analysed data of 139 patients who participated in the CAHE trial. Univariate logistic regression analysis was used to measure the association between patient-related determinants (medication self-efficacy, beliefs about medication and hypertension, social support, and satisfaction with care) and treatment adherence. We also tested whether CAHE influenced the determinants.

Results

Medication self-efficacy and social support were associated with medication adherence at baseline. At six months, more medication self-efficacy and fewer concerns about medication use were associated with improved medication adherence. Self-efficacy was also associated with adherence to lifestyle recommendations at baseline. CAHE influenced patients’ illness perceptions by creating more understanding of hypertension, its chronic character, and more concerns about the associated risks.

Conclusion

In this high-risk population, health care providers can support medication adherence by paying attention to patients’ medication self-efficacy, the concerns they may have about medication use and patients’ perceptions on hypertension. The CAHE intervention improved patients’ perception on hypertension.     

A Second Look at the Association between Gender and Mortality on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

We assessed the association between gender and mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) using identical models with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Design

Cohort study of adult patients on ART.

Setting

GHESKIO Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Participants

4,717 ART-naïve adult patients consecutively enrolled on ART at GHESKIO from 2003 to 2008.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality on ART; multivariable analyses were conducted with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Results

In Haiti, male gender was associated with mortality (OR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.30–2.00) in multivariable analyses with hemoglobin and weight included as control variables, but not when sex-specific interactions with hemoglobin and weight were used.

Conclusions

If sex-specific categories are omitted, multivariable analyses indicate a higher risk of mortality for males vs. females of the same weight and hemoglobin. However, because males have higher normal values for weight and hemoglobin, the males in this comparison would generally have poorer health status than the females. This may explain why gender differences in mortality are sometimes observed after controlling for differences in baseline variables when gender-specific interactions with weight and hemoglobin are omitted.     

Time to ART Initiation among Patients Treated for Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis in Khayelitsha,South Africa: Impact on Mortality and Treatment Success

Setting

Khayelitsha, South Africa, with high burdens of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) and HIV co-infection.

Objective

To describe time to antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation among HIV-infected RR-TB patients initiating RR-TB treatment and to assess the association between time to ART initiation and treatment outcomes.

Design

A retrospective cohort study of patients with RR-TB and HIV co-infection not on ART at RR-TB treatment initiation.

Results

Of the 696 RR-TB and HIV-infected patients initiated on RR-TB treatment between 2009 and 2013, 303 (44%) were not on ART when RR-TB treatment was initiated. The median CD4 cell count was 126 cells/mm³. Overall 257 (85%) patients started ART during RR-TB treatment, 33 (11%) within 2 weeks, 152 (50%) between 2–8 weeks and 72 (24%) after 8 weeks. Of the 46 (15%) who never started ART, 10 (21%) died or stopped RR-TB treatment within 4 weeks and 16 (37%) had at least 4 months of RR-TB treatment. Treatment success and mortality during treatment did not vary by time to ART initiation: treatment success was 41%, 43%, and 50% among patients who started ART within 2 weeks, between 2–8 weeks, and after 8 weeks (p = 0.62), while mortality was 21%, 13% and 15% respectively (p = 0.57). Mortality was associated with never receiving ART (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 6.0, CI 2.1–18.1), CD4 count ≤100 (aHR 2.1, CI 1.0–4.5), and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) with second-line resistance (aHR 2.5, CI 1.1–5.4).

Conclusions

Despite wide variation in time to ART initiation among RR-TB patients, no differences in mortality or treatment success were observed. However, a significant proportion of patients did not initiate ART despite receiving >4 months of RR-TB treatment. Programmatic priorities should focus on ensuring all patients with RR-TB/HIV co-infection initiate ART regardless of CD4 count, with special attention for patients with CD4 counts ≤ 100 to initiate ART as soon as possible after RR-TB treatment initiation.     

Hyaluronic Acid: Perspectives in Upper Aero-Digestive Tract. A Systematic Review

Background

To date, topical therapies guarantee a better delivery of high concentrations of pharmacologic agents to the mucosa of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT). The use of topical drugs, which are able to reduce mucosal inflammation and to improve healing tissues, can represent a relevant therapeutic advance. Topical sodium hyaluronate (SH) has recently been recognized as adjuvant treatment in the chronic inflammatory disease of the UADT.

Aims

The aim of our work was to review the published literature regarding all the potential therapeutic effects of SH in the chronic inflammatory disease of UADT.

Methods

Relevant published studies were searched in Pubmed, Google Scholar, Ovid using keywords (“sodium hyaluronate” and “upper airways”) or Medical Subject Headings.

Results

At the end of our selection process, sixteen publications have been included. Six of them in the post-operative period of nasal-sinus surgery, 2 of them in pediatric patients affected by recurrent upper respiratory tract infections, 4 of them in reducing symptoms and preventing exacerbations of chronic upper airways in adult population, 4 of them in patients with chronic inflammatory disease of UADT, including gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD).

Conclusions

Topical administration of SH plays a pivotkey role in the postoperative phase of patients undergoing FESS and nasal surgery, and positive results are generally observed in all the patients suffering from UADT chronic inflammatory disease.     

Monitoring HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Cameroon: A Study Following the Revised World Health Organization Recommendations

Background

The majority (>95%) of new HIV infection occurs in resource-limited settings, and Cameroon is still experiencing a generalized epidemic with ~122,638 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). A detrimental outcome in scaling-up ART is the emergence HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), suggesting the need for pragmatic approaches in sustaining a successful ART performance.

Methods

A survey was conducted in 15 ART sites of the Centre and Littoral regions of Cameroon in 2013 (10 urban versus 05 rural settings; 8 at tertiary/secondary versus 7 at primary healthcare levels), evaluating HIVDR-early warning indicators (EWIs) as-per the 2012 revised World Health Organization’s guidelines: EWI₁ (on-time pill pick-up), EWI₂ (retention in care), EWI₃ (no pharmacy stock-outs), EWI₄ (dispensing practices), EWI₅ (virological suppression). Poor performance was interpreted as potential HIVDR.

Results

Only 33.3% (4/12) of sites reached the desirable performance for “on-time pill pick-up” (57.1% urban versus 0% rural; p<0.0001) besides 25% (3/12) with fair performance. 69.2% (9/13) reached the desirable performance for “retention in care” (77.8% urban versus 50% rural; p=0.01) beside 7.7% (1/13) with fair performance. Only 14.4% (2/13) reached the desirable performance of “no pharmacy stock-outs” (11.1% urban versus 25% rural; p=0.02). All 15 sites reached the desirable performance of 0% “dispensing mono- or dual-therapy”. Data were unavailable to evaluate “virological suppression” due to limited access to viral load testing (min-max: <1%-15%). Potential HIVDR was higher in rural (57.9%) compared to urban (27.8%) settings, p=0.02; and at primary (57.9%) compared to secondary/tertiary (33.3%) healthcare levels, p=0.09.

Conclusions

Delayed pill pick-up and pharmacy stock-outs are major factors favoring HIVDR emergence, with higher risks in rural settings and at primary healthcare. Retention in care appears acceptable in general while ART dispensing practices are standard. There is need to support patient-adherence to pharmacy appointments while reinforcing the national drug supply system.     

How Do Tracking and Changes in Dietary Pattern during Adolescence Relate to the Amount of Body Fat in Early Adulthood?

Background

Few studies have addressed the influence of dietary patterns (DP) during adolescence on the amount of body fat in early adulthood.

Objective

To analyze the associations between DP tracking and changes in the period between 15 and 18 years of age and the percentage of body fat (%BF) at age 18 years.

Methods

We used data from 3,823 members of the 1993 Pelotas (Brazil) birth cohort. Body density was measured at age 18 years by air displacement plethysmograph (BOD POD) and the %BF was calculated applying the Siri equation. Based on the estimates from the FFQ, we identified DP at ages 15 (“Varied”, “Traditional”, “Dieting” and “Processed meats”) and 18 years (“Varied”, “Traditional”, “Dieting” and “Fish, fast food and alcohol”). The DP tracking was defined as the individual’s adherence to the same DP at both ages. Associations were tested using multiple linear regression models stratified by sex.

Results

The mean %BF was 25.0% (95% CI: 24.7 to 25.4), significantly greater for girls than boys (p<0.001). The adherence to any DP at age 15 years was not associated with the %BF at age 18 years. However, individuals who adhered to a “Dieting” DP at age 18 years showed greater %BF (1.30 and 1.91 percentage points in boys and girls, respectively) in comparison with those who adhered to a “Varied” DP. Boys who presented tracking of a “Dieting” DP presented greater average %BF in comparison with others DP, as well as girls who changed from the “Traditional” or “Processed meats” DP to a “Dieting” DP.

Conclusion

These results may support public health policies and strategies focused on improving dietary habits of adolescents and young adults and preventing accumulation of body fat, especially among the adolescents with restrictive dietary habits.     

Factors Associated with Retention to Care in an HIV Clinic in Gabon,Central Africa

Background

Retention to HIV care is vital for patients’ survival, to prevent onward transmission and emergence of drug resistance. Travelling to receive care might influence adherence. Data on the functioning of and retention to HIV care in the Central African region are limited.

Methods

This retrospective study reports outcomes and factors associated with retention to HIV care at a primary HIV clinic in Lambaréné, Gabon. Adult patients who presented to this clinic between January 2010 and January 2012 were included. Outcomes were retention in care (defined as documented show-up for clinical visits, regardless of delay) or LTFU (defined as a patient not retained in care; on ART or ART naïve, not returning to care during the study period with a patient delay for scheduled visits of more than 6 months), and mortality. Cox regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with respective outcomes. Qualitative data on reasons for LTFU were obtained from focus-group discussions.

Results

Of 223 patients included, 67.3% were female. The mean age was 40.5 (standard deviation 11.4) years and the median CD4 count 275 (interquartile range 100.5–449.5) cells/μL. In total, 34.1% were lost to follow up and 8.1% died. Documented tuberculosis was associated with increased risk of being LTFU (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.80, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.05–3.11, P = 0.03), whereas early starting anti-retroviral therapy (ART) was associated with a decreased risk of LTFU (aHR 0.43, 95%CI 0.24–0.76, P = 0.004), as was confirmed by qualitative data.

Conclusions

Retention to HIV care in a primary clinic in Gabon is relatively poor and interventions to address this should be prioritized in the HIV program. Early initiation of ART might improve retention in care.     

Tuberculosis Prevention in South Africa

Background

South Africa has one of the highest per capita rates of tuberculosis (TB) incidence in the world. In 2012, the South African government produced a National Strategic Plan (NSP) to control the spread of TB with the ambitious aim of zero new TB infections and deaths by 2032, and a halving of the 2012 rates by 2016.

Methods

We used a transmission model to investigate whether the NSP targets could be reached if immediate scale up of control methods had happened in 2014. We explored the potential impact of four intervention portfolios; 1) “NSP” represents the NSP strategy, 2) “WHO” investigates increasing antiretroviral therapy eligibility, 3) “Novel Strategies” considers new isoniazid preventive therapy strategies and HIV “Universal Test and Treat” and 4) “Optimised” contains the most effective interventions.

Findings

We find that even with this scale-up, the NSP targets are unlikely to be achieved. The portfolio that achieved the greatest impact was “Optimised”, followed closely by “NSP”. The “WHO” and “Novel Strategies” had little impact on TB incidence by 2050. Of the individual interventions explored, the most effective were active case finding and reductions in pre-treatment loss to follow up which would have a large impact on TB burden.

Conclusion

Use of existing control strategies has the potential to have a large impact on TB disease burden in South Africa. However, our results suggest that the South African TB targets are unlikely to be reached without new technologies. Despite this, TB incidence could be dramatically reduced by finding and starting more TB cases on treatment.