Alnus glutinosa – dominated wetland forests of the Baltic Region: community structure,syntaxonomy and conservation

Community structure, syntaxonomy and conservation aspects of Alnus glutinosa-dominated forests in the Baltic States, Central Europe, southern Fennoscandinavia and north-western part of the Commonwealth of Independent States are surveyed. Communities of the black alder wetlands, subjected to cluster analysis (TWINSPAN, GROUPAGE) and correspondence analysis (CANOCO) and synsystematically treated following the Braun-Blanquet approach, belong to Alnion (Carici elongatae-Alnetum Schwick. 33 with two subassociations, Sphagno squarrosi-Alnetum Sol.-Gorn. ex Pried. 96) and Alno-Ulmion (mainly Circaeo-Alnetum Oberd. 53) forests in the Baltic Region. The indicator values sensu Ellenberg, site ecology, floristic assemblages and the phytogeographical features point at a high affinity of these forests in a wide geographical area. Eleven syntaxonomical approaches by classifying central and north-eastern European alderwoods have been analysed. These differ in Alnion classification and distinguish from 2 to more than 10 syntaxa at the level of association. The actual distribution of less disturbed black alder wetlands and areas under these forests in Europe suggests that the SE part of the Baltic Region could be the key area for Alnus glutinosa-dominated wetlands. Thus, it deserves an establishment of an international network of standard protected areas so as to maintain the diverse community samples and elaborate the principles of sustainable management. Abbreviations: In figures CLT PALU means Caltha palustris, CAL PALU – Calla palustris. Abbreviations of all other species follow first 3 and 4 letters of the genus and species name, respectively. Nomenclature: Tabaka et al. (1988) for vascular plants, Abolina et al. (1984) for mosses.     

Black alder swamps on forested peatlands in Latvia

The black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.)Gaertn.) stands occupy 2.5% of the forest area in Latvia. The majority of its communities lie on peatlands; they have been studied in the whole of latvia using the Braun-Blanquet approach. One hundred and fifty alder dominated relevés selected from 334 forest areas have been analysed. Three associations (Carici elongatae-Alnetum, Sphagno squarrosi-Alnetum, andCircaeo-Alnetum), one with four subassociations have been recognized; these belong to the Eurosiberian alder swamps (cl.Alnetea glutinosae) and the European broad-leaved forests (cl.Querco-Fagetea). The phytosociological structure, distribution in Latvia and floristic features of these communities are reported. Results are compared with similar communities in the Baltic Sea states and neighbouring countries.     

Evaluation frameworks and conservation system of Latvian forests

Since the 1990s the forest conservation system in Latvia has developedin two parallel trends. This reflects both traditional application ofcentral European phytosociology by explicit forest communities (at least 19 associations inLatvian forests) and the recently appreciated method of key-habitats in forests.It consists of two attributes: indicator species–habitat specialists andcertain abiotic structures whose persistent presence on the spot is limited byintactness, time-scale and natural disturbances. Following the interpretationmanual of habitats in the European Union, eight forest habitats deserve particularconservation in Latvia. Altogether 8% of Latvian forests are formally protected,although only 1.5% meet the World Conservation Union Category 1where all human intervention must be excluded or minimized. Original analysis ofLatvian forest communities by their phytosociological standard and a comparisonwith similar assemblages elsewhere suggest that four forest groups deserveall-European conservation priority in Latvia because of intactness and largestands still survived or because of narrow distribution area. These are:Alnus glutinosa–Betula spp.–Fraxinus excelsior wetlands (ca. 3000 ha invarious formal reserve networks), northern outposts of mixed riverine hardwoodforests on the bank slopes and in semi-permanently moist ravines (ca. 240ha in reserves), floodplain and riverine Quercusrobur relic woodlands in eastern Latvia (ca. 120 ha inreserves) and dry Fennoscandian–Baltic Pinussylvestris woodlands on dolomites and limestones (no areas formallyprotected by law yet). Preliminary inventory of woodland key-habitats suggeststhat only 3% of Latvian forests can meet the desired criteria. This method,based on 53 indicator species indicating certain habitat properties and 25abiotic structures and stand features, has been found a valuable tool inforestry practice to evaluate the forest before any logging takes place and tomonitor spatial changes of biodiversity.     

Alnion forests in Lower Saxony (FRG), their ecological requirements,classification and position within Carici elongatae-Alnetum of Northern Central Europe

In the diluvial plain of Lower Saxony ( = Niedersachsen) two types of alder fen woods are found: alder swamp woods (alder carrs) with a more changing water table and inundations in winter, and alder spring woods without hibernal inundation and a more or less constant water table. While all alder swamp woods are Alnion forests, the alder spring woods can be devided into Alnion and Alno-Ulmion forests.All Alnion forests in the diluvial plain of Lower Saxony belong to the association Carici elongatae-Alnetum Schwick. 1933. This association can be devided into three subassociations, C. el.-Al. betuletosum Bodeux 1955, C. el.-Al. typicum Meijer Drees 1936 and C. el.-Al. cardaminetosum Meijer Drees 1936.Low pH-values and high C/N-ratios of the soil are good indicators to distinguish the Carici elongatae-Alnetum betuletosum from the other two subassociations. Humus contents has a tendency to decrease in the sequence C. el.-Al. betuletosum > C. el.-Al. typicum > C. el.-Al cardaminetosum, but is no reliable factor for classification of a single plot. Differences in annual groundwater level variations cause a floristical differentiation only within alderwoods of meso- to eutrophic sites. Here a nearly constant water table or at least no hibernal inundation leads to a Carici elongatae-Alnetum cardaminetosum, while sites which are inundated in winter carry the Carici elongatae-Alnetum typicum. On oligotrophic sites both, swamp and spring woods belong to the Carici elongatae-Alnetum betuletosum.The subdivision of the Carici elongatae-Alnetum for the whole lowlands of northern Central Europe is generally the same as for Lower Saxony. Source reference: This paper was presented as a poster with the title Alnion Forests in Lower Saxony (FRG)-Syntaxonomical position and ecological requirements on the IAVS-Symposium Forests of the World, Upsala 20.–27.8.1989.     

Upland Forest Linkages to Seasonal Wetlands: Litter Flux, Processing, and Food Quality

The flux of materials across ecosystem boundaries has significant effects on recipient systems. Because of edge effects, seasonal wetlands in upland forest are good systems to explore these linkages. The purpose of this study was to examine flux of coarse particulate organic matter as litter fall into seasonal wetlands in Minnesota, and the relationship of this flux to development of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti). We hypothesized that litter flux into seasonal wetlands was dominated by upland plant litter that was lower quality and slower to breakdown than wetland litter, and that development rate of mosquitoes reared on upland litter was less than those reared on wetland litter. Of total litter fall into the wetlands, 71% originated in upland forest. Carbon to nitrogen ratios differed between upland litter (mostly sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) leaves) and wetland litter (mostly black ash (Fraxinus nirgra) leaves), averaging 63.9 and 47.7, respectively over two years. Breakdown rate of black ash leaves was faster than upland leaves (k (day⁻¹) = 0.00329 and 0.00156, respectively), based on the average between wetland margins and centers. Development of mosquito larvae fed black ash leaves was faster than larvae fed upland leaves. Our results demonstrate linkages between upland forests and seasonal wetlands through litter fall. The abundance of upland litter in the wetlands may influence litter breakdown and carbon assimilation by invertebrates. Wetlands receiving high amounts of upland versus wetland litter may be lower quality habitats for invertebrates that depend on detrital pools for their development.     

Thermophilous oak forests in the Czech Republic: Syntaxonomical revision of theQuercetalia pubescenti-petraeae

Using the Braun-Blanquet approach, a syntaxonomical revision of the order ofQuercetalia pubescenti-petraeae, based on the synthesis of 634 relevés, distinguished three alliances of the thermophilous oak forests in the Czech Republic: (1)Quercion pubescenti-petraeae (3 communities:Pruno mahaleb-Quercetum pubescentis, Lathyro versicoloris-Quercetum pubescentis, Corno-Quercetum), which includes peri-alpine and peri-Carpathian oak forests on calcareous bedrock, (2)Aceri tatarici-Quercion (2 communities:Quercetum pubescenti-roboris, Carici fritschii-Quercetum roboris), which comprises Pontic-Pannonian oak forests on loess or sand that occur in southern Moravia only, (3)Quercion petraeae (5 communities:Potentillo albae-Quercetum, Brachypodium pinnatum-Quercus robur community,Sorbo torminalis-Quercetum, Genisto pilosae-Quercetum petraeae, Asplenio cuneifolii-Quercetum petraeae), which includes Central European thermophilous oak forests distributed outside the range ofQuercus pubescens and some other submediterranean species.     

Where are Europe’s last primary forests?

Aim

Primary forests have high conservation value but are rare in Europe due to historic land use. Yet many primary forest patches remain unmapped, and it is unclear to what extent they are effectively protected. Our aim was to (1) compile the most comprehensive European‐scale map of currently known primary forests, (2) analyse the spatial determinants characterizing their location and (3) locate areas where so far unmapped primary forests likely occur.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We aggregated data from a literature review, online questionnaires and 32 datasets of primary forests. We used boosted regression trees to explore which biophysical, socio‐economic and forest‐related variables explain the current distribution of primary forests. Finally, we predicted and mapped the relative likelihood of primary forest occurrence at a 1‐km resolution across Europe.

Results

Data on primary forests were frequently incomplete or inconsistent among countries. Known primary forests covered 1.4 Mha in 32 countries (0.7% of Europe’s forest area). Most of these forests were protected (89%), but only 46% of them strictly. Primary forests mostly occurred in mountain and boreal areas and were unevenly distributed across countries, biogeographical regions and forest types. Unmapped primary forests likely occur in the least accessible and populated areas, where forests cover a greater share of land, but wood demand historically has been low.

Main conclusions

Despite their outstanding conservation value, primary forests are rare and their current distribution is the result of centuries of land use and forest management. The conservation outlook for primary forests is uncertain as many are not strictly protected and most are small and fragmented, making them prone to extinction debt and human disturbance. Predicting where unmapped primary forests likely occur could guide conservation efforts, especially in Eastern Europe where large areas of primary forest still exist but are being lost at an alarming pace.     

Latent heat exchange in the boreal and arctic biomes

In this study latent heat flux (λE) measurements made at 65 boreal and arctic eddy‐covariance (EC) sites were analyses by using the Penman–Monteith equation. Sites were stratified into nine different ecosystem types: harvested and burnt forest areas, pine forests, spruce or fir forests, Douglas‐fir forests, broadleaf deciduous forests, larch forests, wetlands, tundra and natural grasslands. The Penman–Monteith equation was calibrated with variable surface resistances against half‐hourly eddy‐covariance data and clear differences between ecosystem types were observed. Based on the modeled behavior of surface and aerodynamic resistances, surface resistance tightly control λE in most mature forests, while it had less importance in ecosystems having shorter vegetation like young or recently harvested forests, grasslands, wetlands and tundra. The parameters of the Penman–Monteith equation were clearly different for winter and summer conditions, indicating that phenological effects on surface resistance are important. We also compared the simulated λE of different ecosystem types under meteorological conditions at one site. Values of λE varied between 15% and 38% of the net radiation in the simulations with mean ecosystem parameters. In general, the simulations suggest that λE is higher from forested ecosystems than from grasslands, wetlands or tundra‐type ecosystems. Forests showed usually a tighter stomatal control of λE as indicated by a pronounced sensitivity of surface resistance to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit. Nevertheless, the surface resistance of forests was lower than for open vegetation types including wetlands. Tundra and wetlands had higher surface resistances, which were less sensitive to vapor pressure deficits. The results indicate that the variation in surface resistance within and between different vegetation types might play a significant role in energy exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere. These results suggest the need to take into account vegetation type and phenology in energy exchange modeling.     

Magellanic Wetlands: More than Moor

Magellanic wetlands in the Patagonian steppe are unique habitats from the point of view of conservation and agriculture. Little is known about their environmental characteristics and plant communities. Our aim was to describe vegetation variability to improve current classifications and reveal environmental factors correlated with vegetation variability in the meadow wetlands (vegas) of southern Chilean Patagonia and Chilean Tierra del Fuego. Five vegetation types resulted from TWINSPAN classification and subsequent interpretation, based on which four new associations were delimited: Magellanic acidic marshes – the Scirpo cernui-Calthetum sagittatae, Magellanic alkaline wet grasslands – the Samolo spathulatae-Azorelletum trifurcatae, Magellanic tall sedge marshes – the Carici maclovianae-Agrostietum stoloniferae, and Magellanic pastures – the Hordeo lechleri-Trifolietum repentis. The fifth vegetation type, saline wetlands, is the rarest and so far the least known community. Magellanic wetland vegetation forms a gradient from short saline marshes to tall graminoid-dominated communities. They reflect a major soil gradient of pH and organic matter content, along with the content of major elements (N, P, K, Fe, Al). Other important factors are ground water regime and grazing intensity.     

Role of black alder (Alnus glutinosa) in vegetation dynamics in West Norway

In Norway black alder (Alnus glutinosa) has an 'optimal' area along the western coast where it acts as a pioneer species in secondary successions on Calluna and grass heaths, pastures, formerly cultivated land and in hydroseres. Black alder is dominant or co–dominant with birch in oligotrophic grazing forests, most of which belong to the ass. Corno suecicae–Betuletum where black alder seems to be able to survive for a long time. It is also found in a variety of other woodland communities, some of which are stable Alnetea glutinosae or Alno–Padion communities. Others are successional stages towards meso– or eutrophic deciduous forests. The new Alnetea glutinosae ass. Carici nigrae–Alnetum glutinosae is described. The ecology of black alder in West Norway is compared to its ecology in other areas, especially on the British Isles. The humid climate and recent changes in agricultural practice are the main reasons for the present abundance of black alder in West Norway.     

Structural and functional loss in restored wetland ecosystems

Wetlands are among the most productive and economically valuable ecosystems in the world. However, because of human activities, over half of the wetland ecosystems existing in North America, Europe, Australia, and China in the early 20th century have been lost. Ecological restoration to recover critical ecosystem services has been widely attempted, but the degree of actual recovery of ecosystem functioning and structure from these efforts remains uncertain. Our results from a meta-analysis of 621 wetland sites from throughout the world show that even a century after restoration efforts, biological structure (driven mostly by plant assemblages), and biogeochemical functioning (driven primarily by the storage of carbon in wetland soils), remained on average 26% and 23% lower, respectively, than in reference sites. Either recovery has been very slow, or postdisturbance systems have moved towards alternative states that differ from reference conditions. We also found significant effects of environmental settings on the rate and degree of recovery. Large wetland areas (>100 ha) and wetlands restored in warm (temperate and tropical) climates recovered more rapidly than smaller wetlands and wetlands restored in cold climates. Also, wetlands experiencing more (riverine and tidal) hydrologic exchange recovered more rapidly than depressional wetlands. Restoration performance is limited: current restoration practice fails to recover original levels of wetland ecosystem functions, even after many decades. If restoration as currently practiced is used to justify further degradation, global loss of wetland ecosystem function and structure will spread.     

Genetic diversity of tufted ducks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Aythya fuligula</Emphasis>, Anatidae) in Eastern Europe

The tufted duck (Aythya fuligula, Anatidae) is widespread in the Palaearctic across Northern Eurasia. Birds breeding in Northern and Eastern Europe are highly migratory, while populations from Western Europe are partially migratory or resident. The aim of this study is to explore genetic variation within and between ducks breeding in Latvia and migrants sampled in North West Russia and Belarus. The technique of random amplified polymorphic DNA was applied using five random primers (ol-1, ol-9-12). Genetic variability was measured for all tufted ducks investigated and for different sub-populations from various regions. Individual genetic structure and genetic variability was higher in ducks collected from Latvia. Gene diversity of amplified DNA bands in birds of Latvian origin was 24% with 80% polymorphism. Means of gene diversity and polymorphism for tufted ducks sampled in other countries varied from 12 to 14% and from 27 to 40%, respectively. A high number of unique bands characterized ducks breeding in Latvia. The oligonucleotide primers used in this study were suitable to analyze differences among tufted ducks of different origin. Possible explanations for the variation observed among the studied ducks are discussed.     

Pointer years in tree-ring width and earlywood-vessel area time series of Quercus robur—Relation with climate factors near its northern distribution limit

For a long time, radial growth of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) in relation to environmental factors has been studied in Central Europe. However, there is insufficient information on oak growth in the Baltic region. Climate–growth interactions have been mostly investigated by correlation/response analysis between ring width and climatic factors. Other wood anatomical proxies, and also pointer year analysis, which focuses on weather extremes, can be sources of additional information. Wood samples were taken from 40 sites across Latvia. Tree-ring width (TRW) and mean area of earlywood vessels (EVA) were measured. To assess differences in wood formation among sites, a PCA was performed based on pointer year series of TRW and EVA per site. The relation with climate was assessed by Pearson's correlation. Patterns of wood formation differed along west/east gradient, so that two regions (western and eastern) of Latvia were distinguished. Pointer year values were higher for TRW than for EVA and higher in the eastern than in the western region. However, the pointer year values were moderate, suggesting that there was no strict limiting factor for their formation. Pointer years of EVA were strongly related with temperature during the dormant period in both regions; June precipitation had a significant effect in the eastern region. Pointer years of TRW were correlated with spring and summer temperature in the western region and with February temperature in the eastern region; precipitation in autumn showed a negative effect. These differences can be explained by a gradient from maritime to continental climate, leading to shifts in the growth limiting factors. Extremely cold winters resulted in most of the negative pointer years of TRW and EVA.     

Factors Affecting Landscape Occupancy by Fishers in North-Central British Columbia

ABSTRACT To better understand distribution and density of fishers (Martes pennanti) in industrial forests of north-central British Columbia, Canada, we examined factors affecting the probability of a potential home range being occupied by 10 radiotagged resident fishers in the Sub-Boreal Spruce biogeoclimatic zone between 1996 and 2000. Percentage of a home range in wetlands and recently logged (within past 12 yr) best predicted likelihood of occupancy by each fisher. Probability of a home range area being occupied by a resident fisher decreased with increasing amounts of wetlands and recent logging present in the area. We estimated that a 5% increase in wetlands or recent logging decreased the relative probability of occupancy of a potential home range by 50%. The accelerated rate of timber harvest in forests affected by mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) infestations may have substantial implications for the ability of the landscape of central British Columbia to support sustainable populations of fishers.     

Beitrag zur Kenntnis desCarici remotae-Fraxinetum in der Tschechischen Sozialistischen Republik

Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden Resultate syntaxonomisch-synökologischer Forschungen desCarici remotae-Fraxinetum Koch exFaber 1936 in den Tschechischen Ländern vorgelegt. Diese Assoziation ist an Gleyböden quelliger Lagen gebunden, meistens in Höhen zwischen ca. (250) 300 und 600 m ü. NN. Im untersuchten Gebiet wurde die Assoziation in vier Subassoziationen gegliedert. DasCarici remotae-Fraxinetum caricetosum pendulae Tx. 1937 bestockt sehr wasserreiche bis versumpfte Nassgleye quelliger Hänge oder Hangsohlen mit schnell fliessendem Wasser. DasCarici rem.-Fraxinetum chrysosplenietosum Tx. 1937 ist an frische bis übergehend versumpfte Nassgleye, typische Gleye bzw. Anmoorgleye von Geländesenkungen mit langsam fliessendem, quelligem Wasser gebunden. DasCarici rem.-Fraxinetum typicum Knapp (1944) 1948 kommt auf typischen Gleyen, seltener Nassgleyen an Bachufern vor. DasCarici rem.-Fraxinetum quercetosum Miky?ka 1956 wurde auf frischen bis sehr wasserreichen Nassgleyen quelliger Stellen im Kontakt mit Eichen-Hainbuchenwäldern festgestellt.     

Expansion of Harmonia axyridis Pallas (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) to European Russia and adjacent regions

An invasive alien species, the harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis (Pallas, 1773), has quickly expanded its distribution in Eastern Europe. Records of H. axyridis from 31 localities in Lithuania, Latvia, the Ukraine, European Russia, and the Northern Caucasus are summarized and mapped. Within the last few years this species has established in south Latvia, on the Baltic Sea shore (Kaliningrad oblast and Lithuania), in the western and central Ukraine, Crimea, and in the Northern Caucasus. Besides that, individual specimens have been found in 4 more localities in European Russia. The species is recorded from Lipetsk oblast (European Russia), Crimea, and Nikolaev oblast (the Ukraine) for the first time.     

Subfossil oaks from riverine sediments of the Seda River in Latvia: The first results of dendrochronological and radiocarbon analysis

The article presents a dendrochronological investigation of subfossil oaks from the riverine sediments of the Seda River in the Lake Burtnieki Undulating Plain, northern Latvia. Thirty-nine oak trunks were investigated for our study. Cross-dating of samples resulted in six floating chronologies spanning 141–636 years. The longest chronology was absolutely dated to AD 652–1287 against regional oak chronologies from Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus and central European Russia. ¹⁴C dating revealed that oaks grew on the site from the last century of the third millennium cal BC to the first half of the second millennium cal AD. We assessed the depositional anomalies from two best-replicated chronologies. The germination of oaks occurred during climate warming, and dying-off phases were triggered by climate cooling and increased precipitation throughout Europe. Our results give new insights into the forest history in northern Latvia and provide a potential to construct absolute-dated millennial oak chronologies in the Baltic countries.     

Virgin forests in Romania and Bulgaria: results of two national inventory projects and their implications for protection

Despite extensive forest destruction in the Middle Ages and later intensive commercial forest management, remnants of virgin forests remained spared in some Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries. These virgin forests are the last examples of original forests in this part of Europe. That is why their protection becomes an important issue of current European forestry and nature protection policy. But the knowledge about the location and the area of virgin forests in these countries is incomplete up till now. This article has the prime goal to present a conceptual framework what virgin forests might be (“A conceptual framework for defining of virgin forests” section). Based on this framework, a working methodology has been tested in Bulgaria and Romania (“Results of the two national projects in Romania and in Bulgaria” section and further). For this reason two projects have been carried out by the Royal Dutch Society of Nature Conservation (KNNV) in close co-operation with the Forestry Institutes in Romania and in Bulgaria. The results of these projects are described in general terms and further analysis in the future is necessary to describe specific features like forest structure and spatial heterogeneity of these forests. Based on the results of the inventory, principles of sustainable protection and management of the mapped virgin forests were defined and described in the research reports. The usefulness of the inventory became evident already during the EU pre-accession period of both countries while preparing the NATURA 2000 network. The remaining virgin forests of temperate Europe are an inexhaustible source of ecological information about biodiversity, structure, natural processes and overall functioning of undisturbed forest ecosystems. Their research will reveal information which can be used for ecological restoration of man-made forests which are degraded through intensive forestry practices over the last centuries. The last virgin forests of temperate Europe represent an irreplaceable part of the natural capital of Europe and are worth to be protected by law. Their last remnants in South-Eastern and Eastern Europe are endangered by commercial activities. A full inventory of remaining virgin forests in all countries of temperate Europe is a matter of highest urgency. A representative selection of virgin forest sites should be declared by UNESCO as World Heritage Sites.     

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse‐scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice‐rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half‐century, and much of these carbon‐rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape‐level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60‐year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape‐level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice‐rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.