Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr^?1. Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi‐arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green‐up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.     

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Responses of biota to climate change take a number of forms including distributional shifts, behavioural changes and life history changes. This study examined an extensive set of biological records to investigate changes in the timing of life history transitions (specifically emergence) in British Odonata between 1960 and 2004. The results show that there has been a significant, consistent advance in phenology in the taxon as a whole over the period of warming that is mediated by life history traits. British odonates significantly advanced the leading edge (first quartile date) of the flight period by a mean of 1.51 ±0.060 (SEM, n=17) days per decade or 3.08±1.16 (SEM, n=17) days per degree rise in temperature when phylogeny is controlled for. This study represents the first review of changes in odonate phenology in relation to climate change. The results suggest that the damped temperature oscillations experienced by aquatic organisms compared with terrestrial organisms are sufficient to evoke phenological responses similar to those of purely terrestrial taxa.     

Spring migration phenology of birds in the Northern Prairie region is correlated with local climate change

ABSTRACT In apparent response to recent periods of global warming, some migratory birds now arrive earlier at stopover sites and breeding grounds. However, the effects of this warming on arrival times vary among locations and species. Migration timing is generally correlated with temperature, with earlier arrival during warm years than during cold years, so local variation in climate change might produce different effects on migration phenology in different geographic regions. We examined trends in first spring arrival dates (FADs) for 44 species of common migrant birds in South Dakota (1971–2006) and Minnesota (1964–2005) using observations compiled by South Dakota and Minnesota Ornithologists’ Unions. We found significant trends in FAD over time for 20 species (18 arriving earlier and two later) in South Dakota and 16 species (all earlier) in Minnesota. Of these species, 10 showed similar significant trends for both states. All 10 of these species exhibited significantly earlier arrival, and all were early spring migrants, with median FADs before 10 April in both states. Eighteen of the 44 species showed significant negative correlations of FADs with either winter (December–February) or spring (arrival month plus previous month) temperatures in one or both states. Interestingly, spring temperatures in both South Dakota and Minnesota did not warm significantly from 1971–2006, but winter temperatures in both states warmed significantly over the same time period. This suggests that the warmer winters disproportionately affected early spring migrants, especially those associated with aquatic habitats (seven of the 10 species showing significantly earlier spring arrival in both states). The stronger response to climate change by early spring migrants in our study is consistent with the results of several other studies, and suggests that migrants, especially early migrants, are capable of responding to local temperature conditions experienced on wintering grounds or along the migration route.     

Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.     

沈阳城市森林主要树种物候对气候变暖的响应

采用统计和线性回归方法,探讨了近40年来沈阳城市森林主要树种物候对气候变暖的响应.结果表明,沈阳城市森林树木休眠期长短与冬季气温密切相关,适宜的寒冷条件有利于解除树木休眠期;树木萌动期早晚与冬季和早春气温高低呈显著的负相关关系,冬春季气温越高,芽萌动越提前.树木爆芽后15 d左右开始展叶,展叶早晚主要受展叶前的春季气温高低的影响,但与冬季气温没有相关关系.始花前2～8旬,特别是2～4旬气温对始花期影响最显著,春季气温升高始花期提前. 树木芽萌动期、展叶始期与寒冷指数（CI）呈显著正相关关系,而开花始期与CI没有相关关系.沈阳城市森林树木对气候变暖的响应,主要表现在年均温升高1 ℃,芽萌动期提前9 d,展叶始期提前10 d,开花始期提前5 d.     

郑州植物物候对气候变化的响应

利用统计和突变分析方法,对郑州气候（1956～2003年）和4种乔木物候（1986～2003年）的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了植物物候期与平均温度、日照的相关性以及对温度变化的响应趋势。分析发现：（1）郑州近50a来在冬、春季升温现象明显;日照在夏季下降最为显著,冬季其次,但在2～4月份历年呈弱上升趋势。（2）物候期变化趋势表现在展叶、开花、果熟期（除楝树外）呈提前趋势,落叶期略有推迟,绿叶期延长,特别是在20世纪90年代中后期,春季物候期（除垂柳外）提前10d左右。（3）平均温度是影响物候期最为显著的气候因子,温度每升高1℃,春季物候平均提前6d左右,绿叶期延长9．5～18．6d;物候期突变一般发生在温度突变之后。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感,通过分析和掌握气候和物候变化规律,了解其对当地植物物候的可能影响,可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供一些理论依据。     

The phenology of spring bird migration to north Norway

Capsule There was no evidence of a long-term trend in arrival dates of spring migrants over the last 20 years in north Norway.

Aims To investigate the effect of climate on the timing of spring arrival of many species at their northern limit of breeding distribution and to seek evidence of any long-term trend.

Methods Observations of spring arrivals of 71 species into Troms, north Norway (69–70°N) between 1970 and 2000 by members of the local branch of the Norwegian Ornithological Society were analysed and related to available weather parameters.

Results The first migrants arrive in mid-March when air temperatures are still below 0°C and c. 1 m of snow is on the ground, with the main influx in late April and throughout May. By then much of the snow has melted and temperatures are c. 5°C. There was no evidence of a long-term trend in the median dates of arrival across 31 species in Troms between 1980 and 2000. However among 14 species for which detailed data exist in a limited area around Tromsø, the Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria showed a significant trend towards an earlier arrival and the Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus showed the opposite. Spring migration tended to be advanced during warm springs, and seven of the above subsets of 14 species showed significant negative correlations between their arrival dates and temperature. One showed a positive correlation.

Conclusion The data collected to date are a good baseline for future studies of the effects of climate change on migration phenology.     

Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

柑橘大实蝇物候对气候变暖的响应

[目的]明确实蝇对气候变暖的响应特征,研究未来气候变化背景下柑橘大实蝇的灾变规律及防控措施的优化。[方法]以湖北省宜昌市为例,收集该地区柑橘大实蝇历年的物候数据与同期温度数据,通过线性回归模型分析成虫羽化始期、羽化高峰期、羽化结束期、产卵始期、产卵高峰期和产卵结束期的年际变化情况和与温度升高的关系。[结果]1981—2020年,宜昌市年均温和四季均温均有不同程度的上升,春季均温升温最为显著。近20年间,柑橘大实蝇在宜昌市呈羽化发生提前且产卵为害延迟的态势,且羽化和产卵历期呈缩短的态势。若宜昌市年均温提升1 ℃,柑橘大实蝇羽化始期和高峰期分别延迟0.4746和1.026 d,羽化结束期提前0.0227 d,总体呈羽化延迟且缩短趋势;产卵始期提前4.286 d,高峰期和结束期分别延迟1.173和1.081 d,总体呈产卵提前且延长趋势。[结论]气候变暖对宜昌市柑橘大实蝇的羽化和产卵产生一定的影响,对未来气候变化背景下柑橘大实蝇的灾变规律及防控措施的优化具有重要意义。     

东北地区植被物候对气候变化的响应

使用1982—2003年GIMMS-NDVI数据和气候数据,借助GIS空间分析和统计分析方法,分析了东北地区不同植被物候期与气候变化的关系。结果表明:22年东北地区年均温度以升高趋势为主,年降水量以减少趋势为主;针叶林、针阔叶混交林、阔叶林、草甸和沼泽植被生长季开始日期提前受春季温度升高影响显著(P<0.05)。春季降水对植被生长季开始日期变化影响较小,仅对针叶林生长季开始日期的推迟有显著的影响(P<0.05)。植被生长季结束日期受温度变化影响较小,仅草原植被生长季结束日期提前受秋季温度降低影响显著(P<0.05)。降水对东北地区植被生长季结束日期的变化影响高于温度。随着秋季降水量的减少,针阔叶混交林、草原和农田植被生长季结束日提前(P<0.05)。草丛生长季结束日期提前受夏季降水减少的影响显著(P<0.05);农田生长季结束日期提前亦受夏季和9月降水量减少的显著影响(P<0.05)。阔叶林和沼泽植被生长季延长受春季温度升高影响显著(P<0.05);灌丛植被生长季缩短受春季降水量减少影响显著(P<0.05);草丛和农田植被生长季延长受夏季降水量增加影响显著(P<0.05)。     

Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched

Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or counteracted during the ensuing evolutionary adaptation. We find in total seven qualitatively different population trajectories during the transition to a new evolutionary equilibrium. This surprising diversity of eco-evolutionary responses provides adaptive explanations to the observed variation in phenological responses to recent climate change.     

Effects of climate on fall migration phenology of monarch butterflies departing the northeastern breeding grounds in Canada

Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) undergo an iconic multi-generational migration, traveling thousands of kilometers from the summer breeding grounds in southern Canada to overwintering sites in central Mexico. This migration phenomena can be affected by climate change, which may have important implications on fitness and ultimately populations status. We investigated the long-term trends in fall migration phenology of monarchs using a 25-year dataset collected along the coast of Lake Erie in Ontario, Canada. We also investigated local long-term trends in weather covariates that have the potential to influence migration phenology at this site. Patterns in standardized daily counts of monarchs were compared with local weather covariates using two methods (i.e., monthly averages and moving windows) to assess difference in outputs between analytical approaches. Our results suggest that monarch migration timing (migration midpoint, average peak, first peak, and late passage) and weather covariates have been consistent over time, in direct contrast to a similar study in Cape May, New Jersey, which showed a significant increase in both fall temperature and a 16- to 19-day shift in monarch migration timing. Furthermore, our results differed between analytical approaches. With respect to annual variability in air temperature, our monthly average analysis suggested that for each degree increase in September air temperature, late season passage would advance 4.71 days (±1.59 SE, p = .01). However, the moving window analysis suggested that this result is likely spurious and found no significant correlations between migration timing and any weather covariates. Importantly, our results caution against extrapolating the effects of climate change on the migration phenology of the monarch across study regions and the need for more long-term monitoring efforts to better understand regional drivers of variability in migration timing.     

Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology

Climate change can influence consumer populations both directly, by affecting survival and reproduction, and indirectly, by altering resources. However, little is known about the relative importance of direct and indirect effects, particularly for species important to ecosystem functioning, like pollinators. We used structural equation modelling to test the importance of direct and indirect (via floral resources) climate effects on the interannual abundance of three subalpine bumble bee species. In addition, we used long‐term data to examine how climate and floral resources have changed over time. Over 8 years, bee abundances were driven primarily by the indirect effects of climate on the temporal distribution of floral resources. Over 43 years, aspects of floral phenology changed in ways that indicate species‐specific effects on bees. Our study suggests that climate‐driven alterations in floral resource phenology can play a critical role in governing bee population responses to global change.     

民勤荒漠区植物物候对气候变暖的响应

近几十年来,全球气候普遍变暖.那么,荒漠地区的气候是不是响应了全球气候的这种变化?在全球气候变化过程中,荒漠区植物物候又是如何响应这种气候变化的呢?显然,研究荒漠地区植物物候对气候变化的响应对于深入研究荒漠植物物候与气候因子的关系以及荒漠地区的植物保护都具有重要意义.运用位于中国西北典型荒漠地区的民勤沙生植物园1974～2007年42种中生、旱生植物的物候观测资料进行分析.结果表明:研究区1974年以来气温抬升幅度大于其他文献的研究报道,春季物候期提前幅度明显大于其他国家文献报道;在气温变暖的过程中,不同月份的气温变化与年平均气温的变化趋势并不完全对应,物候期发生当月的平均气温对该物候期的影响＞物候期发生上月平均气温＞年平均气温;研究区位于中国典型荒漠化地区,属于干旱荒漠气候,春季气温升高较其他地区更加明显,这就是当地春季物候期提前幅度相对较大的原因所在,也是当地以及中国西北沙区近几十年来沙尘暴天气增多和沙尘暴发生日期提前的原因.植物物候变化既是植物对气候变化的综合反应过程,又是植物适应气候变化的过程,尤其是荒漠植物.因此,物候研究将会成为今后气候学和植物生态学研究的一个重要内容.     

内蒙古主要草原类型植物物候对气候波动的响应

物候是气候变化的指示者,由于不同地区植被类型不同,导致其对气候波动的响应方式不同。利用2004—2013年内蒙古草原区生态监测站群落优势种物候观测资料和同时段的气象资料,分析了不同草原类型区优势种物候期变化及其与气候因子间的相互关系,结果表明:(1)2004—2013年内蒙古草原区各时段气候波动趋势均不显著,返青前以气温降低、降水增加趋势为主;黄枯前草甸草原、典型草原以气温降低、降水增加趋势为主,荒漠草原变化趋势相反。(2)2004—2013年典型草原植物返青期平均提前4.01 d,黄枯推后10.35 d,生长季延长14.36 d;草甸草原返青期提前2.04 d,黄枯期推后12.68 d,生长季延长14.72 d;荒漠草原物候变化趋势最小,返青期平均提前了1.32 d,黄枯期平均推后了9.58 d,生长季延长了10.90 d。(3)内蒙古草原区植物返青期主要受气温波动的影响,草甸草原返青期与前3个月平均气温的负相关最为显著,气温每升高1℃,返青期约提前1.123 d;典型草原、荒漠草原返青期与前2个月平均气温的负相关最为显著气,气温每升高1℃,返青期约提前1.137 d和1.743 d。(4)典型草原区植物黄枯期受前1—2月平均气温和累积降水的共同影响,与夏季平均气温和当月降水量的相关最为显著,夏季气温每升高1℃,黄枯期约提前2.250 d,当月降水每增加1 mm,黄枯期约推后0.119 d。草甸草原、荒漠草原植物黄枯期与各时段降水、气温的相关均不显著,影响黄枯机制比较复杂。     

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

The spring phenology of plants in temperate regions strongly responds to spring temperatures. Climate warming has caused substantial phenological advances in the past, but trends to be expected in the future are uncertain. A simple indicator is temperature sensitivity, the phenological advance statistically associated with a 1°C warmer mean temperature during the “preseason”, defined as the most temperature‐sensitive period preceding the phenological event. Recent analyses of phenological records have shown a decline in temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding, but underlying mechanisms were not clear. Here, we propose that climate warming can reduce temperature sensitivity simply by reducing the length of the preseason due to faster bud development during this time period, unless the entire preseason shifts forward so that its temperature does not change. We derive these predictions theoretically from the widely used “thermal time model” for bud development and test them using data for 19 phenological events recorded in 1970–2012 at 108 stations spanning a 1600 m altitudinal range in Switzerland. We consider how temperature sensitivity, preseason start, preseason length and preseason temperature change (i) with altitude, (ii) between the periods 1970–1987 and 1995–2012, which differed mainly in spring temperatures, and (iii) between two non‐consecutive sets of 18 years that differed mainly in winter temperatures. On average, temperature sensitivity increased with altitude (colder climate) and was reduced in years with warmer springs, but not in years with warmer winters. These trends also varied among species. Decreasing temperature sensitivity in warmer springs was associated with a limited forward shift of preseason start, higher temperatures during the preseason and reduced preseason length, but not with reduced winter chilling. Our results imply that declining temperature sensitivity can result directly from spring warming and does not necessarily indicate altered physiological responses or stronger constraints such as reduced winter chilling.     

A generalized, bioclimatic index to predict foliar phenology in response to climate

The phenological state of vegetation significantly affects exchanges of heat, mass, and momentum between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere. Although current patterns can be estimated from satellites, we lack the ability to predict future trends in response to climate change. We searched the literature for a common set of variables that might be combined into an index to quantify the greenness of vegetation throughout the year. We selected as variables: daylength (photoperiod), evaporative demand (vapor pressure deficit), and suboptimal (minimum) temperatures. For each variable we set threshold limits, within which the relative phenological performance of the vegetation was assumed to vary from inactive (0) to unconstrained (1). A combined Growing Season Index (GSI) was derived as the product of the three indices. Ten‐day mean GSI values for nine widely dispersed ecosystems showed good agreement (r>0.8) with the satellite‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We also tested the model at a temperate deciduous forest by comparing model estimates with average field observations of leaf flush and leaf coloration. The mean absolute error of predictions at this site was 3 days for average leaf flush dates and 2 days for leaf coloration dates. Finally, we used this model to produce a global map that distinguishes major differences in regional phenological controls. The model appears sufficiently robust to reconstruct historical variation as well as to forecast future phenological responses to changing climatic conditions.