Proposing a Compartmental Model for Leprosy and Parameterizing Using Regional Incidence in Brazil

Hansen’s disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44–45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control.     

The Incidence of Asbestos Bodies in the Lungs at Random Necropsies in Montreal

The incidence of asbestos bodies in the lungs of adult patients selected at random, who died in four Montreal hospitals, was studied by examining fresh unstained smears of lungs obtained at necropsy. Two techniques were used for preparation of the smears and an arbitrary grading system was developed to estimate the degree of contamination of the lungs by asbestos bodies.Asbestos bodies were present in 48 out of 100 necropsies; they were found in 32 of 56 men (57%) and in 16 of 44 women (34%). Men were more heavily contaminated. The proportion of positive smears depended on the technique used and the amount of lung sampled. No particular association was noted between asbestos bodies in the lungs and the presence of cancer in the 33 patients in this series with malignant disease. The high incidence in this random series suggests that asbestos is a significant air contaminant in Montreal.     

Statins Do Not Alter the Incidence of Mesothelioma in Asbestos Exposed Mice or Humans

Mesothelioma is principally caused by asbestos and may be preventable because there is a long latent period between exposure and disease development. The most at-risk are a relatively well-defined population who were exposed as a consequence of their occupations. Although preventative agents investigated so far have not been promising, discovery of such an agent would have a significant benefit world-wide on healthcare costs and personal suffering. Statins are widely used for management of hypercholesterolemia and cardiovascular risk; they can induce apoptosis in mesothelioma cells and epidemiological data has linked their use to a lower incidence of cancer. We hypothesised that statins would inhibit the development of asbestos-induced mesothelioma in mice and humans. An autochthonous murine model of asbestos-induced mesothelioma was used to test this by providing atorvastatin daily in the feed at 100 mg/kg, 200 mg/kg and 400 mg/kg. Continuous administration of atorvastatin did not alter the rate of disease development nor increase the length of time that mice survived. Latency to first symptoms of disease and disease progression were also unaffected. In a parallel study, the relationship between the use of statins and development of mesothelioma was investigated in asbestos-exposed humans. In a cohort of 1,738 asbestos exposed people living or working at a crocidolite mine site in Wittenoom, Western Australia, individuals who reported use of statins did not have a lower incidence of mesothelioma (HR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.44–2.29, p = 0.99). Some individuals reported use of both statins and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or COX-2 inhibitors, and these people also did not have an altered risk of mesothelioma development (HR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.61–1.67, p = 0.97). We conclude that statins do not moderate the rate of development of mesothelioma in either a mouse model or a human cohort exposed to asbestos.     

Socioeconomic variation in incidence of epilepsy: prospective community based study in south east England

ObjectiveTo determine the incidence of epilepsy in a general practice population and its variation with socioeconomic deprivation.DesignProspective surveillance for new cases over an 18 or 24 month period.ParticipantsAll patients on practice registers categorised for deprivation with the Carstairs score of their postcode.Setting20 general practices in London and south east England.Results190 new cases of epilepsy were identified during 369 283 person years of observation (crude incidence 51.5 (95% confidence interval 44.4 to 59.3) per 100 000 per year). The incidence was 190 (138 to 262) per 100 000 in children aged 0-4 years, 30.8 (21.3 to 44.6) in those aged 45-64 years, and 58.7 (42.5 to 81.0) in those aged ⩾65 years. There was no apparent difference in incidence between males and females. The incidence showed a strong association with socioeconomic deprivation, the age and sex adjusted incidence in the most deprived fifth of the study population being 2.33 (1.46 to 3.72) times that in the least deprived fifth (P=0.001 for trend across fifths). Adjustment for area (London v outside London) weakened the association with deprivation (rate ratio 1.62 (0.91 to 2.88), P=0.12 for trend).ConclusionsThe incidence of epilepsy seems to increase with socioeconomic deprivation, though the association may be confounded by other factors.

What is already known on this topic

Epilepsy is associated with a wide range of markers of social and economic disadvantageA small number of epidemiological studies have confirmed this association but have not established the direction of causality

What this study adds

The incidence of epilepsy, adjusted for age and sex, in the most deprived fifth of the study population was 2.3 times that in the least deprived fifthSocioeconomic deprivation is an important risk factor for the development of epilepsy, though the results may partly reflect differences in incidence within and outside London     

Past trends and future prediction of mesothelioma incidence in an industrialized area of Italy,the Veneto Region

Background Malignant Mesothelioma (MM) is so associated with (professional, familial or environmental) asbestos exposure that trends in incidence and mortality parallel, after 30–40 years, the trend in asbestos consumption. In recent decades, the industrialized countries have witnessed a steady growth of pleural MM (MPM), following a stabilization or decline in rates in the countries that first adopted restrictive policies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal variations of pleural MM incidence in the Veneto Region of Italy in the period 1987–2010. Methods We included only MPM with histological or cytological diagnosis. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models were used to assess the trend in the incidence of MPM in both genders. Future predictions were evaluated by using a Bayesian APC model. Results In the period 1987–2010, 1600 MPMs have occurred. We observe a positive trend in the incidence in the whole period considered. The APC model showed that in both genders the cohort at higher risk is the one born between the years 1940–1945. Future projections indicate that the trend will decrease after the incidence peak of 2010; yet 1234 men are expected to develop a mesothelioma between 2011 and 2026. Among women, the future MPM rates will be stable or slightly decreasing. Conclusions The asbestos ban introduced in Italy in the year 1992 as a prospective result will certainly determine a decreasing incidence. However, the extremely long latency of MPM means that its influence is not yet observable.     

Oral Contraceptives and Multiple Sclerosis/Clinically Isolated Syndrome Susceptibility

Background

The incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) is rising in women.

Objective

To determine whether the use of combined oral contraceptives (COCs) are associated with MS risk and whether this varies by progestin content.

Methods

We conducted a nested case-control study of females ages 14–48 years with incident MS or clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) 2008–2011 from the membership of Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Controls were matched on age, race/ethnicity and membership characteristics. COC use up to ten years prior to symptom onset was obtained from the complete electronic health record.

Results

We identified 400 women with incident MS/CIS and 3904 matched controls. Forty- percent of cases and 32% of controls had used COCs prior to symptom onset. The use of COCs was associated with a slightly increased risk of MS/CIS (adjusted OR = 1.52, 95%CI = 1.21–1.91; p<0.001). This risk did not vary by duration of COC use. The association varied by progestin content being more pronounced for levenorgestrol (adjusted OR = 1.75, 95%CI = 1.29–2.37; p<0.001) than norethindrone (adjusted OR = 1.57, 95%CI = 1.16–2.12; p = 0.003) and absent for the newest progestin, drospirenone (p = 0.95).

Conclusions

Our findings should be interpreted cautiously. While the use of some combination oral contraceptives may contribute to the rising incidence of MS in women, an unmeasured confounder associated with the modern woman’s lifestyle is a more likely explanation for this weak association.     

Measures of Adiposity and Risk of Stroke in China: A Result from the Kailuan Study

Objective

The objective of this study was to explore the association between adiposity and risk of incident stroke among men and women.

Methods

We studied the relationship between adiposity and stroke among 94,744 participants (18–98 years old) in the Kailuan study. During a follow-up of 4 years, 1,547 ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes were recorded. Measurements of adiposity included body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHpR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated from Cox regression models and each model fit was assessed using −2log-likelihood.

Results

Every measurement of adiposity was associated with the risk for total stroke and ischemic stroke, but not for hemorrhagic stroke. After adjusting for confounders and intermediates, the HR (comparing the mean of the highest quintile with that of the lowest quintile) for total stroke was 1.34(1.13–1.60) for BMI, 1.26(1.06–1.52) for WC, 1.29(1.08–1.56) for WHpR, and 1.38(1.15–1.66) for WHtR. The HR for ischemic stroke was 1.52(1.24–1.88) for BMI, 1.46(1.17–1.81) for WC, 1.40(1.12–1.74) for WHpR, and 1.62(1.29–2.04) for WHtR. The model fit for each of the indices was similar.

Conclusions

Adiposity increases the total risk of stroke and ischemic stroke, but not of hemorrhagic stroke. No clinically meaningful differences among the associations between BMI, WC, WHpR, and WHtR and stroke incidence were identified in this study.     

Circulating Rheumatoid and Antinuclear Factors in Asbestos Workers

In an unselected series of 80 patients with asbestos exposure referred to the London Pneumoconiosis Medical Panel, antinuclear and rheumatoid factors were found in 28 and 27% respectively. This probably represents at least a fourfold increase over their incidence in random populations. The presence of these autoantibodies was not related to the duration of exposure, but was related to the extent of radiographic abnormality.     

Asbestos bodies in rat lung following intratracheal instillation of chrysotile

Asbestos bodies in rat lung have rarely been reported, and just one previous record of their formation from chrysotile fibres in the rat is known. This paper illustrates the production of numerous true asbestos bodies in the lungs of Lister hooded rats after a single small intratracheal dose of lightly milled chrysotile. The demonstration of these bodies is particularly useful because uncoated chrysotile fibres in lung tissue cannot normally be visualized by light microscopy; the detection of asbestos bodies, and therefore of asbestos fibres, provides a means of directly relating asbestos exposure to observed tissue lesions. The asbestos bodies detected in the present study were nearly always associated with small pulmonary fibrotic lesions. The bodies ranged in length from 5 to 80 micron and were up to 5 micron in diameter. Small spheres, rods and bodies the shape of a comma were common; larger beaded structures were somewhat rarer. The bodies were visible in tissue sections stained routinely with modified Azan stain and with haematoxylin and eosin, but their detection and localization was enhanced by the use of Perls' Prussian blue stain in association with a pale eosin counterstain.     

Mortality Risk and Survival in the Aftermath of the Medieval Black Death

The medieval Black Death (c. 1347-1351) was one of the most devastating epidemics in human history. It killed tens of millions of Europeans, and recent analyses have shown that the disease targeted elderly adults and individuals who had been previously exposed to physiological stressors. Following the epidemic, there were improvements in standards of living, particularly in dietary quality for all socioeconomic strata. This study investigates whether the combination of the selective mortality of the Black Death and post-epidemic improvements in standards of living had detectable effects on survival and mortality in London. Samples are drawn from several pre- and post-Black Death London cemeteries. The pre-Black Death sample comes from the Guildhall Yard (n = 75) and St. Nicholas Shambles (n = 246) cemeteries, which date to the 11^th–12^th centuries, and from two phases within the St. Mary Spital cemetery, which date to between 1120-1300 (n = 143). The St. Mary Graces cemetery (n = 133) was in use from 1350–1538 and thus represents post-epidemic demographic conditions. By applying Kaplan-Meier analysis and the Gompertz hazard model to transition analysis age estimates, and controlling for changes in birth rates, this study examines differences in survivorship and mortality risk between the pre- and post-Black Death populations of London. The results indicate that there are significant differences in survival and mortality risk, but not birth rates, between the two time periods, which suggest improvements in health following the Black Death, despite repeated outbreaks of plague in the centuries after the Black Death.     

The endocytosis of asbestos by mouse peritoneal macrophages and its long-term effect on iron accumulation and labyrinth formation

The effect of a single intraperitoneal injection of crocidolite asbestos fibres on the peritoneal cell population were studied. Attention was paid to the changes in the proportions taken by the various types of cell in this population after peritoneal stimulation as well as the handling of asbestos fibres by the peritoneal cells and the formation of asbestos bodies. Intraperitoneal administration of crocidolite led to an influx of inflammatory cells into the peritoneal cavity. The asbestos fibres were phagocytosed and gradually cleared from the peritoneal cavity. Long before this clearance was completed, the peritoneal cell population had returned to the steady state. The stimulated peritoneal macrophages showed increasing concentrations of iron in both lysosomes and the cytoplasm. At later time points, residual bodies containing iron and asbestos fibres were seen frequently in macrophages, but asbestos bodies were not found. As a reaction to the administration of crocidolite asbestos, macrophages from the peritoneal cavity develop tubular systems (labyrinths) that increase in number and size.     

Socio-Demographic Predictors and Distribution of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (TB) in Xinjiang,China: A Spatial Analysis

Objectives

Xinjiang is one of the high TB burden provinces of China. A spatial analysis was conducted using geographical information system (GIS) technology to improve the understanding of geographic variation of the pulmonary TB occurrence in Xinjiang, its predictors, and to search for targeted interventions.

Methods

Numbers of reported pulmonary TB cases were collected at county/district level from TB surveillance system database. Population data were extracted from Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook (2006~2014). Spatial autocorrelation (or dependency) was assessed using global Moran’s I statistic. Anselin’s local Moran’s I and local Getis-Ord statistics were used to detect local spatial clusters. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, spatial lag model (SLM) and geographically-weighted regression (GWR) models were used to explore the socio-demographic predictors of pulmonary TB incidence from global and local perspectives. SPSS17.0, ArcGIS10.2.2, and GeoDA software were used for data analysis.

Results

Incidence of sputum smear positive (SS+) TB and new SS+TB showed a declining trend from 2005 to 2013. Pulmonary TB incidence showed a declining trend from 2005 to 2010 and a rising trend since 2011 mainly caused by the rising trend of sputum smear negative (SS-) TB incidence (p<0.0001). Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed the presence of positive spatial autocorrelation for pulmonary TB incidence, SS+TB incidence and SS-TB incidence from 2005 to 2013 (P <0.0001). The Anselin’s Local Moran’s I identified the “hotspots” which were consistently located in the southwest regions composed of 20 to 28 districts, and the “coldspots” which were consistently located in the north central regions consisting of 21 to 27 districts. Analysis with the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic expanded the scope of “hotspots” and “coldspots” with different intensity; 30 county/districts clustered as “hotspots”, while 47 county/districts clustered as “coldspots”. OLS regression model included the “proportion of minorities” and the “per capita GDP” as explanatory variables that explained 64% the variation in pulmonary TB incidence (adjR² = 0.64). The SLM model improved the fit of the OLS model with a decrease in AIC value from 883 to 864, suggesting “proportion of minorities” to be the only statistically significant predictor. GWR model also improved the fitness of regression (adj R² = 0.68, AIC = 871), which revealed that “proportion of minorities” was a strong predictor in the south central regions while “per capita GDP” was a strong predictor for the southwest regions.

Conclusion

The SS+TB incidence of Xinjiang had a decreasing trend during 2005–2013, but it still remained higher than the national average in China. Spatial analysis showed significant spatial autocorrelation in pulmonary TB incidence. Cluster analysis detected two clusters—the “hotspots”, which were consistently located in the southwest regions, and the “coldspots”, which were consistently located in the north central regions. The exploration of socio-demographic predictors identified the “proportion of minorities” and the “per capita GDP” as predictors and may help to guide TB control programs and targeting intervention.     

Modelling of carcinogenesis and low-dose hypersensitivity: an application to lung cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors

Lung cancer incidence among the atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki was analysed with the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis. For the baseline incidence, a new set of model parameters is introduced, which can be determined with a higher precision than the parameter sets previously used. The effect of temporal changes in the smoking behaviour on the lung cancer incidence is modelled by allowing initiation, inactivation and division rates of intermediate cells to depend on the year of birth. The TSCE model is further developed by implementing low-dose hypersensitivity in the survival of lung epithelial cells. According to the model fit to the data, the acute gamma exposure of the atomic bomb survivors does not only result in the conventional initiating effect, but also in a promoting effect for lung cancer. Compared to the model in which radiation acts merely on initiation, the new model is in better agreement with the age-at-exposure dependence in the data, and it does not predict an unexpected increase of the excess relative risk (ERR) at 40 years after exposure. According to the new model, the ERR at low doses increases non-linearly with dose, especially during the first 10 years after exposure to older persons.     

Patterns and Predictors of Language and Literacy Abilities 4-10 Years in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children

Aims

Oral language is the foundation of literacy. Naturally, policies and practices to promote children’s literacy begin in early childhood and have a strong focus on developing children’s oral language, especially for children with known risk factors for low language ability. The underlying assumption is that children’s progress along the oral to literate continuum is stable and predictable, such that low language ability foretells low literacy ability. This study investigated patterns and predictors of children’s oral language and literacy abilities at 4, 6, 8 and 10 years. The study sample comprised 2,316 to 2,792 children from the first nationally representative Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Six developmental patterns were observed, a stable middle-high pattern, a stable low pattern, an improving pattern, a declining pattern, a fluctuating low pattern, and a fluctuating middle-high pattern. Most children (69%) fit a stable middle-high pattern. By contrast, less than 1% of children fit a stable low pattern. These results challenged the view that children’s progress along the oral to literate continuum is stable and predictable.

Findings

Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risks for low literacy ability at 10 years and sensitivity-specificity analysis was used to examine the predictive utility of the multivariate model. Predictors were modelled as risk variables with the lowest level of risk as the reference category. In the multivariate model, substantial risks for low literacy ability at 10 years, in order of descending magnitude, were: low school readiness, Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander status and low language ability at 8 years. Moderate risks were high temperamental reactivity, low language ability at 4 years, and low language ability at 6 years. The following risk factors were not statistically significant in the multivariate model: Low maternal consistency, low family income, health care card, child not read to at home, maternal smoking, maternal education, family structure, temperamental persistence, and socio-economic area disadvantage. The results of the sensitivity-specificity analysis showed that a well-fitted multivariate model featuring risks of substantive magnitude did not do particularly well in predicting low literacy ability at 10 years.     

Asbestos and lung cancer in Glasgow and the west of Scotland.

OBJECTIVE--To quantify the relation between lung cancer and exposure to asbestos in men in west Scotland and to estimate the proportion of lung cancer which may be attributed to exposure to asbestos. DESIGN--An ecological correlation study of the incidence of lung cancer in men and past asbestos exposure. The unit of analysis was the postcode sector. Correction was made for past cigarette smoking, air pollution, and deprivation. SETTING--The region covered by the west of Scotland cancer registry, containing 2.72 million people and including Glasgow and the lower reaches of the River Clyde, where shipbuilding was once a major industry. SUBJECTS--All men diagnosed with lung cancer between 1975 and 1984 whose residence at the time of registration was within the west of Scotland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--The population attributable risk for asbestos related lung cancer. RESULTS--An estimated 5.7% (95% confidence interval 2.3 to 9.1%) of all lung cancers in men registered in the west of Scotland during the period 1975-84 were asbestos related, amounting to 1081 cases. CONCLUSIONS--A considerable proportion of cases of lung cancer in men in Glasgow and the west of Scotland from 1975 to 1984 were asbestos related. Most of these may not have been considered for compensation by the Department of Social Security. Given the very small annual number of recorded cases of asbestosis this condition is probably not a prerequisite for the development of asbestos related lung cancer. A heightened awareness of the increasing incidence of asbestos related neoplasms and their more thorough investigation are recommended.     

Additive Synergism between Asbestos and Smoking in Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Smoking and asbestos exposure are important risks for lung cancer. Several epidemiological studies have linked asbestos exposure and smoking to lung cancer. To reconcile and unify these results, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide a quantitative estimate of the increased risk of lung cancer associated with asbestos exposure and cigarette smoking and to classify their interaction. Five electronic databases were searched from inception to May, 2015 for observational studies on lung cancer. All case-control (N = 10) and cohort (N = 7) studies were included in the analysis. We calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs), relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a random-effects model for the association of asbestos exposure and smoking with lung cancer. Lung cancer patients who were not exposed to asbestos and non-smoking (A-S-) were compared with; (i) asbestos-exposed and non-smoking (A+S-), (ii) non-exposure to asbestos and smoking (A-S+), and (iii) asbestos-exposed and smoking (A+S+). Our meta-analysis showed a significant difference in risk of developing lung cancer among asbestos exposed and/or smoking workers compared to controls (A-S-), odds ratios for the disease (95% CI) were (i) 1.70 (A+S-, 1.31–2.21), (ii) 5.65; (A-S+, 3.38–9.42), (iii) 8.70 (A+S+, 5.8–13.10). The additive interaction index of synergy was 1.44 (95% CI = 1.26–1.77) and the multiplicative index = 0.91 (95% CI = 0.63–1.30). Corresponding values for cohort studies were 1.11 (95% CI = 1.00–1.28) and 0.51 (95% CI = 0.31–0.85). Our results point to an additive synergism for lung cancer with co-exposure of asbestos and cigarette smoking. Assessments of industrial health risks should take smoking and other airborne health risks when setting occupational asbestos exposure limits.     

Statins Reduces the Risk of Dementia in Patients with Late-Onset Depression: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective

Patients with late-onset depression (LOD) have been reported to run a higher risk of subsequent dementia. The present study was conducted to assess whether statins can reduce the risk of dementia in these patients.

Methods

We used the data from National Health Insurance of Taiwan during 1996–2009. Standardized Incidence Ratios (SIRs) were calculated for LOD and subsequent dementia. The criteria for LOD diagnoses included age ≥65 years, diagnosis of depression after 65 years of age, at least three service claims, and treatment with antidepressants. The time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model was applied for multivariate analyses. Propensity scores with the one-to-one nearest-neighbor matching model were used to select matching patients for validation studies. Kaplan-Meier curve estimate was used to measure the group of patients with dementia living after diagnosis of LOD.

Results

Totally 45,973 patients aged ≥65 years were enrolled. The prevalence of LOD was 12.9% (5,952/45,973). Patients with LOD showed to have a higher incidence of subsequent dementia compared with those without LOD (Odds Ratio: 2.785; 95% CI 2.619–2.958). Among patients with LOD, lipid lowering agent (LLA) users (for at least 3 months) had lower incidence of subsequent dementia than non-users (Hazard Ratio = 0.781, 95% CI 0.685–0.891). Nevertheless, only statins users showed to have reduced risk of dementia (Hazard Ratio = 0.674, 95% CI 0.547–0.832) while other LLAs did not, which was further validated by Kaplan-Meier estimates after we used the propensity scores with the one-to-one nearest-neighbor matching model to control the confounding factors.

Conclusions

Statins may reduce the risk of subsequent dementia in patients with LOD.     

Application and Revision of Montreal Cognitive Assessment in China's Military Retirees with Mild Cognitive Impairment

ObjectiveIn an effort to accommodate MOCA to better fit for the Chinese context, this study was designed to employ the MOCA criteria to screen mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and analyze associated risk factors in military retirees.MethodsThree hundred and four retired military cadres were recruited using a random cluster sampling technique with information collected including personal, prevalence, MOCA scale, and related neuropsychiatry scale. Thirty retirees were randomly chosen to be further analyzed one month later using the revised MOCA scale.Results①Our data indicated an incidence rate of 64.8% for mild cognitive impairment in retired military cadres. The incidence rate for MCI was significantly higher in those aged 80 or above compared with those 80 years of age or younger (P<0.05). The incidence rate of MCI was significantly higher in those with fewer than 6 years of education compared with those with over 7 years of education (P<0.05). The MCI incidence was higher for those with little exercise than those taking regular exercise (P<0.01). Moreover, the MCI incidence was higher in stroke patients than those who never had a stroke episode (P<0.05). ②There was a significant correlation between MOCA and MMSE scale scores (r = 0.81). MOCA scale scores were negatively correlated with ADL and CES-D scores (although not PSQI scores). ③ MOCA recension Cronbach’s alpha value was 0.862. The related coefficient of MOCA and MOCA recension was 0.878(P<0.01). When the Score of cut-off -point of the MOCA recension was 28, the area in ROC curve analyses was 0.859, as well as the largest area.ConclusionRetired cadres exhibited a greater incidence of MCI (than general population), which was closely associated with age, level of education and physical exercise and cerebral apoplexy. Revised MOCA scale displays a better validity and reaction degree of reliability and is more suitable for screening and diagnosis of MCI in the elderly in China.     

The association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta,China during 2013-2018: A time-stratified case-crossover study

BackgroundStudies have shown that tropical cyclones are associated with several infectious diseases, while very few evidence has demonstrated the relationship between tropical cyclones and dengue fever. This study aimed to examine the potential impact of tropical cyclones on dengue fever incidence in the Pearl River Delta, China.MethodsData on daily dengue fever incidence, occurrence of tropical cyclones and meteorological factors were collected between June and October, 2013–2018 from nine cities in the Pearl River Delta. Multicollinearity of meteorological variables was examined via Spearman correlation, variables with strong correlation (r>0.7) were not included in the model simultaneously. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with conditional Poisson regression model was performed to evaluate the association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever incidence. Stratified analyses were performed by intensity grades of tropical cyclones (tropical storm and typhoon), sex (male and female) and age-groups (<18, 18–59, ≥60 years).ResultsDuring the study period, 20 tropical cyclones occurred and 47,784 dengue fever cases were reported. Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta region, with the largest relative risk of 1.62 with the 95% confidence interval (1.45–1.80) occurring on the lag 5 day. The strength of association was greater and lasted longer for typhoon than for tropical storm. There was no difference in effect estimates between males and females. However, individuals aged over 60 years were more vulnerable than others.ConclusionsTropical cyclones are associated with increased risk of local dengue fever incidence in south China, with the elderly more vulnerable than other population subgroups. Health protective strategies should be developed to reduce the potential risk of dengue epidemic after tropical cyclones.     

A Change in Vaccine Efficacy and Duration of Protection Explains Recent Rises in Pertussis Incidence in the United States

Over the past ten years the incidence of pertussis in the United States (U.S.) has risen steadily, with 2012 seeing the highest case number since 1955. There has also been a shift over the same time period in the age group reporting the largest number of cases (aside from infants), from adolescents to 7–11 year olds. We use epidemiological modelling and a large case incidence dataset to explain the upsurge. We investigate several hypotheses for the upsurge in pertussis cases by fitting a suite of dynamic epidemiological models to incidence data from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) between 1990–2009, as well as incidence data from a variety of sources from 1950–1989. We find that: the best-fitting model is one in which vaccine efficacy and duration of protection of the acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine is lower than that of the whole-cell (wP) vaccine, (efficacy of the first three doses 80% [95% CI: 78%, 82%] versus 90% [95% CI: 87%, 94%]), increasing the rate at which disease is reported to NNDSS is not sufficient to explain the upsurge and 3) 2010–2012 disease incidence is predicted well. In this study, we use all available U.S. surveillance data to: 1) fit a set of mathematical models and determine which best explains these data and 2) determine the epidemiological and vaccine-related parameter values of this model. We find evidence of a difference in efficacy and duration of protection between the two vaccine types, wP and aP (aP efficacy and duration lower than wP). Future refinement of the model presented here will allow for an exploration of alternative vaccination strategies such as different age-spacings, further booster doses, and cocooning.