Temperature,predator–prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long‐term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator–prey interactions and food‐web stability.     

Temperature‐dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature‐ and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage‐structured consumer‐resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage‐specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage‐structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size–temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size–temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size‐specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities.     

Influence of intra‐ and interspecific variation in predator–prey body size ratios on trophic interaction strengths

1. Predation is a pervasive force that structures food webs and directly influences ecosystem functioning. The relative body sizes of predators and prey may be an important determinant of interaction strengths. However, studies quantifying the combined influence of intra‐ and interspecific variation in predator–prey body size ratios are lacking.
2. We use a comparative functional response approach to examine interaction strengths between three size classes of invasive bluegill and largemouth bass toward three scaled size classes of their tilapia prey. We then quantify the influence of intra‐ and interspecific predator–prey body mass ratios on the scaling of attack rates and handling times.
3. Type II functional responses were displayed by both predators across all predator and prey size classes. Largemouth bass consumed more than bluegill at small and intermediate predator size classes, while large predators of both species were more similar. Small prey were most vulnerable overall; however, differential attack rates among prey were emergent across predator sizes. For both bluegill and largemouth bass, small predators exhibited higher attack rates toward small and intermediate prey sizes, while larger predators exhibited greater attack rates toward large prey. Conversely, handling times increased with prey size, with small bluegill exhibiting particularly low feeding rates toward medium–large prey types. Attack rates for both predators peaked unimodally at intermediate predator–prey body mass ratios, while handling times generally shortened across increasing body mass ratios.
4. We thus demonstrate effects of body size ratios on predator–prey interaction strengths between key fish species, with attack rates and handling times dependent on the relative sizes of predator–prey participants.
5. Considerations for intra‐ and interspecific body size ratio effects are critical for predicting the strengths of interactions within ecosystems and may drive differential ecological impacts among invasive species as size ratios shift.

     

Energetically relevant predator–prey body mass ratios and their relationship with predator body size

Food web structure and dynamics depend on relationships between body sizes of predators and their prey. Species‐based and community‐wide estimates of preferred and realized predator–prey mass ratios (PPMR) are required inputs to size‐based size spectrum models of marine communities, food webs, and ecosystems. Here, we clarify differences between PPMR definitions in different size spectrum models, in particular differences between PPMR measurements weighting prey abundance in individual predators by biomass (r^bio) and numbers (r^num). We argue that the former weighting generates PPMR as usually conceptualized in equilibrium (static) size spectrum models while the latter usually applies to dynamic models. We use diet information from 170,689 individuals of 34 species of fish in Alaskan marine ecosystems to calculate both PPMR metrics. Using hierarchical models, we examine how explained variance in these metrics changed with predator body size, predator taxonomic resolution, and spatial resolution. In the hierarchical analysis, variance in both metrics emerged primarily at the species level and substantially less variance was associated with other (higher) taxonomic levels or with spatial resolution. This suggests that changes in species composition are the main drivers of community‐wide mean PPMR. At all levels of analysis, relationships between weighted mean r^bio or weighted mean r^num and predator mass tended to be dome‐shaped. Weighted mean r^num values, for species and community‐wide, were approximately an order of magnitude higher than weighted mean r^bio, reflecting the consistent numeric dominance of small prey in predator diets. As well as increasing understanding of the drivers of variation in PPMR and providing estimates of PPMR in the north Pacific Ocean, our results demonstrate that that r^bio or r^num, as well as their corresponding weighted means for any defined group of predators, are not directly substitutable. When developing equilibrium size‐based models based on bulk energy flux or comparing PPMR estimates derived from the relationship between body mass and trophic level with those based on diet analysis, weighted mean r^bio is a more appropriate measure of PPMR. When calibrating preference PPMR in dynamic size spectrum models then weighted mean r^num will be a more appropriate measure of PPMR.     

Foraging theory predicts predator-prey energy fluxes

1. In natural communities, populations are linked by feeding interactions that make up complex food webs. The stability of these complex networks is critically dependent on the distribution of energy fluxes across these feeding links. 2. In laboratory experiments with predatory beetles and spiders, we studied the allometric scaling (body-mass dependence) of metabolism and per capita consumption at the level of predator individuals and per link energy fluxes at the level of feeding links. 3. Despite clear power-law scaling of the metabolic and per capita consumption rates with predator body mass, the per link predation rates on individual prey followed hump-shaped relationships with the predator-prey body mass ratios. These results contrast with the current metabolic paradigm, and find better support in foraging theory. 4. This suggests that per link energy fluxes from prey populations to predator individuals peak at intermediate body mass ratios, and total energy fluxes from prey to predator populations decrease monotonically with predator and prey mass. Surprisingly, contrary to predictions of metabolic models, this suggests that for any prey species, the per link and total energy fluxes to its largest predators are smaller than those to predators of intermediate body size. 5. An integration of metabolic and foraging theory may enable a quantitative and predictive understanding of energy flux distributions in natural food webs.     

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

We theoretically explore consequences of warming for predator–prey dynamics, broadening previous approaches in three ways: we include beyond‐optimal temperatures, predators may have a type III functional response, and prey carrying capacity depends on explicitly modelled resources. Several robust patterns arise. The relationship between prey carrying capacity and temperature can range from near‐independence to monotonically declining/increasing to hump‐shaped. Predators persist in a U‐shaped region in resource supply (=enrichment)‐temperature space. Type II responses yield stable persistence in a U‐shaped band inside this region, giving way to limit cycles with enrichment at all temperatures. In contrast, type III responses convey stability at intermediate temperatures and confine cycles to low and high temperatures. Warming‐induced state shifts can be predicted from system trajectories crossing stability and persistence boundaries in enrichment‐temperature space. Results of earlier studies with more restricted assumptions map onto this graph as special cases. Our approach thus provides a unifying framework for understanding warming effects on trophic dynamics.     

Variable prey development time suppresses predator–prey cycles and enhances stability

Although theoretical models have demonstrated that predator–prey population dynamics can depend critically on age (stage) structure and the duration and variability in development times of different life stages, experimental support for this theory is non‐existent. We conducted an experiment with a host–parasitoid system to test the prediction that increased variability in the development time of the vulnerable host stage can promote interaction stability. Host–parasitoid microcosms were subjected to two treatments: Normal and High variance in the duration of the vulnerable host stage. In control and Normal‐variance microcosms, hosts and parasitoids exhibited distinct population cycles. In contrast, insect abundances were 18–24% less variable in High‐ than Normal‐variance microcosms. More significantly, periodicity in host–parasitoid population dynamics disappeared in the High‐variance microcosms. Simulation models confirmed that stability in High‐variance microcosms was sufficient to prevent extinction. We conclude that developmental variability is critical to predator–prey population dynamics and could be exploited in pest‐management programs.     

Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation

The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species–area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body‐size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large‐sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body‐size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation.     

Universal temperature and body-mass scaling of feeding rates

Knowledge of feeding rates is the basis to understand interaction strength and subsequently the stability of ecosystems and biodiversity. Feeding rates, as all biological rates, depend on consumer and resource body masses and environmental temperature. Despite five decades of research on functional responses as quantitative models of feeding rates, a unifying framework of how they scale with body masses and temperature is still lacking. This is perplexing, considering that the strength of functional responses (i.e. interaction strengths) is crucially important for the stability of simple consumer–resource systems and the persistence, sustainability and biodiversity of complex communities. Here, we present the largest currently available database on functional response parameters and their scaling with body mass and temperature. Moreover, these data are integrated across ecosystems and metabolic types of species. Surprisingly, we found general temperature dependencies that differed from the Arrhenius terms predicted by metabolic models. Additionally, the body-mass-scaling relationships were more complex than expected and differed across ecosystems and metabolic types. At local scales (taxonomically narrow groups of consumer–resource pairs), we found hump-shaped deviations from the temperature and body-mass-scaling relationships. Despite the complexity of our results, these body-mass- and temperature-scaling models remain useful as a mechanistic basis for predicting the consequences of warming for interaction strengths, population dynamics and network stability across communities differing in their size structure.     

Stepping in Elton's footprints: a general scaling model for body masses and trophic levels across ecosystems

Despite growing awareness of the significance of body-size and predator-prey body-mass ratios for the stability of ecological networks, our understanding of their distribution within ecosystems is incomplete. Here, we study the relationships between predator and prey size, body-mass ratios and predator trophic levels using body-mass estimates of 1313 predators (invertebrates, ectotherm and endotherm vertebrates) from 35 food-webs (marine, stream, lake and terrestrial). Across all ecosystem and predator types, except for streams (which appear to have a different size structure in their predator-prey interactions), we find that (1) geometric mean prey mass increases with predator mass with a power-law exponent greater than unity and (2) predator size increases with trophic level. Consistent with our theoretical derivations, we show that the quantitative nature of these relationships implies systematic decreases in predator-prey body-mass ratios with the trophic level of the predator. Thus, predators are, on an average, more similar in size to their prey at the top of food-webs than that closer to the base. These findings contradict the traditional Eltonian paradigm and have implications for our understanding of body-mass constraints on food-web topology, community dynamics and stability.     

Caught in the web: Spider web architecture affects prey specialization and spider–prey stoichiometric relationships

Quantitative approaches to predator–prey interactions are central to understanding the structure of food webs and their dynamics. Different predatory strategies may influence the occurrence and strength of trophic interactions likely affecting the rates and magnitudes of energy and nutrient transfer between trophic levels and stoichiometry of predator–prey interactions. Here, we used spider–prey interactions as a model system to investigate whether different spider web architectures—orb, tangle, and sheet‐tangle—affect the composition and diet breadth of spiders and whether these, in turn, influence stoichiometric relationships between spiders and their prey. Our results showed that web architecture partially affects the richness and composition of the prey captured by spiders. Tangle‐web spiders were specialists, capturing a restricted subset of the prey community (primarily Diptera), whereas orb and sheet‐tangle web spiders were generalists, capturing a broader range of prey types. We also observed elemental imbalances between spiders and their prey. In general, spiders had higher requirements for both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) than those provided by their prey even after accounting for prey biomass. Larger P imbalances for tangle‐web spiders than for orb and sheet‐tangle web spiders suggest that trophic specialization may impose strong elemental constraints for these predators unless they display behavioral or physiological mechanisms to cope with nutrient limitation. Our findings suggest that integrating quantitative analysis of species interactions with elemental stoichiometry can help to better understand the occurrence of stoichiometric imbalances in predator–prey interactions.     

Assessing changes in arthropod predator–prey interactions through DNA‐based gut content analysis—variable environment,stable diet

Analysing the structure and dynamics of biotic interaction networks and the processes shaping them is currently one of the key fields in ecology. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to gut content analysis, thereby deriving a new perspective on community interactions and their responses to environment. For this, we use an elevational gradient in the High Arctic, asking how the environment and species traits interact in shaping predator–prey interactions involving the wolf spider Pardosa glacialis. To characterize the community of potential prey available to this predator, we used pitfall trapping and vacuum sampling. To characterize the prey actually consumed, we applied molecular gut content analysis. Using joint species distribution models, we found elevation and vegetation mass to explain the most variance in the composition of the prey community locally available. However, such environmental variables had only a small effect on the prey community found in the spider's gut. These observations indicate that Pardosa exerts selective feeding on particular taxa irrespective of environmental constraints. By directly modelling the probability of predation based on gut content data, we found that neither trait matching in terms of predator and prey body size nor phylogenetic or environmental constraints modified interaction probability. Our results indicate that taxonomic identity may be more important for predator–prey interactions than environmental constraints or prey traits. The impact of environmental change on predator–prey interactions thus appears to be indirect and mediated by its imprint on the community of available prey.     

Hypoxic refuges,predator–prey interactions and habitat selection by fishes

Localized hypoxic habitats were created in Delta Marsh, Manitoba, Canada to determine the potential of regions of moderate hypoxia to act as refuges for forage fishes from piscine predators. Minnow traps and giving‐up density (GUD) plates (plexiglas plates covered with trout crumble and fine gravel) were used to assess habitat use and perceived habitat quality for forage fishes, respectively, while passive integrated transponder tags provided data on habitat use by predator species to assess the level of predation risk. Data were collected both before and after a hypoxia manipulation (2–3 mg l^?1 dissolved oxygen, DO) to create a before–after control–effect style experiment. Fathead minnows Pimephales promelas were more abundant and consumed more food from GUD plates in hypoxic bays after the DO manipulation, indicating hypoxic locations were perceived as higher quality, lower‐risk habitats. The frequency of predator visits was not consistently affected. The duration of visits, and therefore the total time spent in these habitats, however, was significantly shorter. These predator data, combined with the prey information, are consistent with the hypothesis that hypoxic regions function as predator refuges. The refuge effect is not the result of predator exclusion, however; instead predators are rendered less capable of foraging and pose less of a threat in hypoxic locations.     

Pyramids and cascades: a synthesis of food chain functioning and stability

Food chain theory is one of the cornerstones of ecology, providing many of its basic predictions, such as biomass pyramids, trophic cascades and predator–prey oscillations. Yet, ninety years into this theory, the conditions under which these patterns may occur and persist in nature remain subject to debate. Rather than address each pattern in isolation, we propose that they must be understood together, calling for synthesis in a fragmented landscape of theoretical and empirical results. As a first step, we propose a minimal theory that combines the long‐standing energetic and dynamical approaches of food chains. We chart theoretical predictions on a concise map, where two main regimes emerge: across various functioning and stability metrics, one regime is characterised by pyramidal patterns and the other by cascade patterns. The axes of this map combine key physiological and ecological variables, such as metabolic rates and self‐regulation. A quantitative comparison with data sheds light on conflicting theoretical predictions and empirical puzzles, from size spectra to causes of trophic cascade strength. We conclude that drawing systematic connections between various existing approaches to food chains, and between their predictions on functioning and stability, is a crucial step in confronting this theory to real ecosystems.     

Cross-ecosystem differences in stability and the principle of energy flux

Here, we review consumer-resource (C-R) theory to show that the paradox of enrichment is a special case of a more general theoretical result. That is, we show that increased energy flux, relative to the consumer loss rate, makes C-R interactions top heavy (i.e., greater C:R biomass ratio) and less stable. We then review the literature on the attributes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to argue that empirical estimates of parameters governing energy flux find that aquatic ecosystems have higher rates of relative energy flux than terrestrial ecosystems. Consistent with theory, we then review empirical work that shows aquatic ecosystems have greater herbivore:plant biomass ratios while we produce novel data to show that aquatic ecosystems have greater variability in population dynamics than their terrestrial counterparts. We end by arguing that theory, allometric relationships and a significant, negative correlation between body size and population variability suggest that these results may be driven by the smaller average body sizes of aquatic organisms relative to terrestrial organisms.     

Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization

Fresh waters are particularly vulnerable to climate change because (i) many species within these fragmented habitats have limited abilities to disperse as the environment changes; (ii) water temperature and availability are climate-dependent; and (iii) many systems are already exposed to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Most climate change studies to date have focused on individuals or species populations, rather than the higher levels of organization (i.e. communities, food webs, ecosystems). We propose that an understanding of the connections between these different levels, which are all ultimately based on individuals, can help to develop a more coherent theoretical framework based on metabolic scaling, foraging theory and ecological stoichiometry, to predict the ecological consequences of climate change. For instance, individual basal metabolic rate scales with body size (which also constrains food web structure and dynamics) and temperature (which determines many ecosystem processes and key aspects of foraging behaviour). In addition, increasing atmospheric CO₂ is predicted to alter molar CNP ratios of detrital inputs, which could lead to profound shifts in the stoichiometry of elemental fluxes between consumers and resources at the base of the food web. The different components of climate change (e.g. temperature, hydrology and atmospheric composition) not only affect multiple levels of biological organization, but they may also interact with the many other stressors to which fresh waters are exposed, and future research needs to address these potentially important synergies.     

Measurement of body size and abundance in tests of macroecological and food web theory

1. Mean body mass (W) and mean numerical (N) or biomass (B) abundance are frequently used as variables to describe populations and species in macroecological and food web studies. 2. We investigate how the use of mean W and mean N or B, rather than other measures of W and/or accounting for the properties of all individuals, can affect the outcome of tests of macroecological and food web theory. 3. Theoretical and empirical analyses demonstrate that mean W, W at maximum biomass (W(mb)), W when energy requirements are greatest (W(me)) and the W when a species uses the greatest proportion of the energy available to all species in a W class (W(mpe)) are not consistently related. 4. For a population at equilibrium, relationships between mean W and W(me) depend on the slope b of the relationship between trophic level and W. For marine fishes, data show that b varies widely among species and thus mean W is an unreliable indicator of the role of a species in the food web. 5. Two different approaches, 'cross-species' and 'all individuals' have been used to estimate slopes of abundance-body mass relationships and to test the energetic equivalence hypothesis and related theory. The approaches, based on relationships between (1) log(10) mean W and log(10) mean N or B, and (2) log(10) W and log(10) N or B of all individuals binned into log(10) W classes (size spectra), give different slopes and confidence intervals with the same data. 6. Our results show that the 'all individuals' approach has the potential to provide more powerful tests of the energetic equivalence hypothesis and role of energy availability in determining slopes, but new theory and empirical analysis are needed to explain distributions of species relative abundance at W. 7. Biases introduced when working with mean W in macroecological and food web studies are greatest when species have indeterminate growth, when relationships between W and trophic level are strong and when the range of species'W is narrow.     

The dicey dinner dilemma: Asymmetry in predator–prey risk‐taking,a broadly applicable alternative to the life‐dinner principle

Forty years ago, the ‘life‐dinner principle’ was proposed as an example of an asymmetry that may lead prey species to experience stronger selection than their predators, thus accounting for the high frequency with which prey escape alive from interaction with a predator. This principle remains an influential concept in the scientific literature, despite several works suggesting that the concept relies on many under‐appreciated assumptions and does not apply as generally as was initially proposed. Here, we present a novel model describing a very different asymmetry to that proposed in the life‐dinner principle, but one that could apply broadly. We argue that asymmetries between the relative costs and benefits to predators and prey of selecting a risky behaviour during an extended predator–prey encounter could lead to an enhanced likelihood of escape for the prey. Any resulting advantage to prey depends upon there being a behaviour or choice that introduces some inherent danger to both predator and prey if they adopt it, but which if the prey adopts the predator must match in order to have a chance of successful predation. We suggest that the circumstances indicated by our model could apply broadly across diverse taxa, including both risky spatial or behavioural choices.