Isolation in habitat refugia promotes rapid diversification in a montane tropical salamander

Aim Our goal was to reconstruct the phylogenetic history and historical demography of highly divergent populations of the endemic plethodontid salamander Pseudoeurycea leprosa, to elucidate the timing and mechanisms of divergence in the Trans‐Volcanic Belt of Mexico. Location The Trans‐Volcanic Belt (TVB) of central Mexico, including the states of Mexico, Morelos, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz. Methods We sequenced the cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA gene for 281 individuals from 26 populations and nine mountain ranges in the TVB, and used Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction and Markov chain Monte Carlo coalescent methods to infer historical demographic parameters and divergences among populations in each mountain system. Results We found deep genetic divergences between eastern and central TVB mountain systems despite their recent volcanic origin. Populations of P. leprosa show a pattern of refugial populations in the north‐eastern and eastern limits of the species’ distribution, and genetic evidence of rapid population expansion in mountain ranges of the central TVB. The oldest divergences among populations date to c. 3.8 Ma, and the most recent divergences in the central TVB are Pleistocene in age (c. 0.7 Ma). Main conclusions Given the timing and order of population diversification in P. leprosa, we conclude that early isolation in multiple habitat refuges in north‐eastern and eastern mountain ranges played an important role in structuring population diversity in the TVB, followed by population expansion and genetic divergence of the central range populations. The dynamic climatic and volcanic changes in this landscape generally coincide with the history of intra‐specific diversification in P. leprosa. Climate‐driven changes in habitat distribution in an actively changing volcanic landscape have shaped divergences in the TVB and very likely contributed to the high levels of speciation and endemism in this biodiverse region.     

Landscape features impact connectivity between soil populations: a comparative study of gene flow in earthworms

Landscape features are known to alter the spatial genetic variation of aboveground organisms. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the genetic structure of belowground organisms also responds to landscape structure. Microsatellite markers were used to carry out a landscape genetic study of two endogeic earthworm species, Allolobophora chlorotica (N = 440, eight microsatellites) and Aporrectodea icterica (N = 519, seven microsatellites), in an agricultural landscape in the North of France, where landscape features were characterized with high accuracy. We found that habitat fragmentation impacted genetic variation of earthworm populations at the local scale. A significant relationship was observed between genetic diversity (H_e, A_r) and several landscape features in A. icterica populations and A. chlorotica. Moreover, a strong genetic differentiation between sites was observed in both species, with a low degree of genetic admixture and high F_st values. The landscape connectivity analysis at the regional scale, including isolation by distance, least‐cost path and cost‐weighted distance approaches, showed that genetic distances were linked to landscape connectivity in A. chlorotica. This indicates that the fragmentation of natural habitats has shaped their dispersal patterns and local effective population sizes. Landscape connectivity analysis confirmed that a priori favourable habitats such as grasslands may constitute dispersal corridors for these species.     

Effects of social organization and elevation on spatial genetic structure in a montane ant

Studying patterns of population structure across the landscape sheds light on dispersal and demographic processes, which helps to inform conservation decisions. Here, we study how social organization and landscape factors affect spatial patterns of genetic differentiation in an ant species living in mountainous regions. Using genome‐wide SNP markers, we assess population structure in the Alpine silver ant, Formica selysi. This species has two social forms controlled by a supergene. The monogyne form has one queen per colony, while the polygyne form has multiple queens per colony. The two social forms co‐occur in the same populations. For both social forms, we found a strong pattern of isolation‐by‐distance across the Alps. Within regions, genetic differentiation between populations was weaker for the monogyne form than for the polygyne form. We suggest that this pattern is due to higher dispersal and effective population sizes in the monogyne form. In addition, we found stronger isolation‐by‐distance and lower genetic diversity in high elevation populations, compared to lowland populations, suggesting that gene flow between F. selysi populations in the Alps occurs mostly through riparian corridors along lowland valleys. Overall, this survey highlights the need to consider intraspecific polymorphisms when assessing population connectivity and calls for special attention to the conservation of lowland habitats in mountain regions.     

Local genetic structure of a montane herb among isolated grassland patches: implications for the preservation of genetic diversity under climate change

Habitat loss, fragmentation of meadow patches, and global climate change (GCC) threaten plant communities of montane grasslands. We analyzed the genetic structure of the montane herb Geranium sylvaticum L. on a local scale in order to understand the effects of habitat fragmentation and potential GCC impacts on genetic diversity and differentiation. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting and cpDNA sequencing was performed for 295 individuals of 15 G. sylvaticum populations spanning the entire distribution range of the species in the Taunus mountain range in Germany. We found patterns of substantial genetic differentiation among populations using 150 polymorphic AFLP markers (mean F _ST = 0.105), but no variation in 896 bp of plastid DNA sequences. While populations in the center of their local distribution range were genetically diverse and less differentiated, higher F _ST values and reduced genetic variability was revealed for the populations at the low-altitudinal distribution margins. Projections of GCC effects on the distribution of G. sylvaticum in 2050 showed that GCC will likely lead to the extinction of most edge populations. To maintain regional genetic diversity, conservation efforts should focus on the diverse high-altitude populations, although a potential loss of unique variations in genetically differentiated peripheral populations could lower the overall genetic diversity and potentially the long-term viability in the study region. This study documents the usefulness of fine-scale assessments of genetic population structure in combination with niche modeling to reveal priority regions for the effective long-term conservation of populations and their genetic variation under climate change.     

Conserving threatened riparian ecosystems in the American West: Precipitation gradients and river networks drive genetic connectivity and diversity in a foundation riparian tree (Populus angustifolia)

Gene flow is an evolutionary process that supports genetic connectivity and contributes to the capacity of species to adapt to environmental change. Yet, for most species, little is known about the specific environmental factors that influence genetic connectivity, or their effects on genetic diversity and differentiation. We used a landscape genetic approach to understand how geography and climate influence genetic connectivity in a foundation riparian tree (Populus angustifolia), and their relationships with specieswide patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation. Using multivariate restricted optimization in a reciprocal causal modelling framework, we quantified the relative contributions of riparian network connectivity, terrestrial upland resistance and climate gradients on genetic connectivity. We found that (i) all riparian corridors, regardless of river order, equally facilitated connectivity, while terrestrial uplands provided 2.5× more resistance to gene flow than riparian corridors. (ii) Cumulative differences in precipitation seasonality and precipitation of the warmest quarter were the primary climatic factors driving genetic differentiation; furthermore, maximum climate resistance was 45× greater than riparian resistance. (iii) Genetic diversity was positively correlated with connectivity (R² = 0.3744, p = .0019), illustrating the utility of resistance models for identifying landscape conditions that can support a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. From these results, we present a map highlighting key genetic connectivity corridors across P. angustifolia's range that if disrupted could have long‐term ecological and evolutionary consequences. Our findings provide recommendations for conservation and restoration management of threatened riparian ecosystems throughout the western USA and the high biodiversity they support.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population

Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.     

Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species

Global circulation models predict an increase in mean annual temperature between 2.1 and 4.6 °C by 2080 in the northern temperate zone. The associated changes in the ratio of extinctions and colonizations at the boundaries of species ranges are expected to result in northward range shifts for a lot of species. However, net species colonization at northern boundary ranges, necessary for a northward shift and for range conservation, may be hampered because of habitat fragmentation. We report the results of two forest plant colonization studies in two fragmented landscapes in central Belgium. Almost all forest plant species (85%) had an extremely low success of colonizing spatially segregated new suitable forest habitats after c . 40 years. In a landscape with higher forest connectivity, colonization success was higher but still insufficient to ensure large-scale colonization. Under the hypothesis of net extinction at southern range boundaries, forest plant species dispersal limitation will prevent net colonization at northern range boundaries required for range conservation.     

Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland

The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop‐growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO₂ emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change‐driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective.     

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km²,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。     

Climate‐associated genetic variation in Fagus sylvatica and potential responses to climate change in the French Alps

Local adaptation patterns have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the genetic heterogeneity of species along their range of distribution. In the next decades, global warming is predicted to induce a change in the selective pressures that drive this adaptive variation, forcing a reshuffling of the underlying adaptive allele distributions. For species with low dispersion capacity and long generation time such as trees, the rapidity of the change could impede the migration of beneficial alleles and lower their capacity to track the changing environment. Identifying the main selective pressures driving the adaptive genetic variation is thus necessary when investigating species capacity to respond to global warming. In this study, we investigate the adaptive landscape of Fagus sylvatica along a gradient of populations in the French Alps. Using a double‐digest restriction‐site‐associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing approach, we identified 7,000 SNPs from 570 individuals across 36 different sites. A redundancy analysis (RDA)‐derived method allowed us to identify several SNPs that were strongly associated with climatic gradients; moreover, we defined the primary selective gradients along the natural populations of F. sylvatica in the Alps. Strong effects of elevation and humidity, which contrast north‐western and south‐eastern site, were found and were believed to be important drivers of genetic adaptation. Finally, simulations of future genetic landscapes that used these findings allowed identifying populations at risk for F. sylvatica in the Alps, which could be helpful for future management plans.     

Forest tree species adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change

Intraspecific variation plays a critical role in extant and future forest responses to climate change. Forest tree species with wide climatic niches rely on the intraspecific variation resulting from genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to accommodate spatial and temporal climate variability. A centuries-old legacy of forest ecological genetics and provenance trials has provided a strong foundation upon which to continue building on this knowledge, which is critical to maintain climate-adapted forests. Our overall objective is to understand forest trees intraspecific responses to climate across species and biomes, while our specific objectives are to describe ecological genetics models used to build our foundational knowledge, summarize modeling approaches that have expanded the traditional toolset, and extensively review the literature from 1994 to 2021 to highlight the main contributions of this legacy and the new analyzes of provenance trials. We reviewed 103 studies comprising at least three common gardens, which covered 58 forest tree species, 28 of them with range-wide studies. Although studies using provenance trial data cover mostly commercially important forest tree species from temperate and boreal biomes, this synthesis provides a global overview of forest tree species adaptation to climate. We found that evidence for genetic adaptation to local climate is commonly present in the species studied (79%), being more common in conifers (87.5%) than in broadleaf species (67%). In 57% of the species, clines in fitness-related traits were associated with temperature variables, in 14% of the species with precipitation, and in 25% of the species with both. Evidence of adaptation lags was found in 50% of the species with range-wide studies. We conclude that ecological genetics models and analysis of provenance trial data provide excellent insights on intraspecific genetic variation, whereas the role and limits of phenotypic plasticity, which will likely determine the fate of extant forests, is vastly understudied.     

Elevation and connectivity define genetic refugia for mountain sheep as climate warms

Global warming is predicted to affect the evolutionary potential of natural populations. We assessed genetic diversity of 25 populations of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) in southeastern California, where temperatures have increased and precipitation has decreased during the 20th century. Populations in low-elevation habitats had lower genetic diversity, presumably reflecting more fluctuations in population sizes and founder effects. Higher-elevation habitats acted as reservoirs of genetic diversity. However, genetic diversity was also affected by population connectivity, which has been disrupted by human development. Restoring population connectivity may be necessary to buffer the effects of climate change on this desert-adapted ungulate.     

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.     

Combining population genetics,species distribution modelling and field assessments to understand a species vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is recognized as a major threat to biodiversity. Multidisciplinary approaches that combine population genetics and species distribution modelling to assess these threats and recommend conservation actions are critical but rare. Combined, these methods provide independent verification and a more compelling case for developing conservation actions. This study integrates these data streams together with field assessments and spatial analyses to develop future genetic resource management recommendations. The study species was Callistemon teretifolius (Needle Bottlebrush), a shrub species endemic to the Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Chloroplast microsatellite and Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism data were combined with species distribution modelling (MaxEnt), spatial analysis and field assessment to evaluate climate change vulnerability. Two major genetic groups were identified (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges). Populations in the Flinders Ranges, especially the Southern Flinders Ranges exhibited the highest genetic diversity, indicating a possible genetic refugium. Lower genetic diversity to the south in the Mount Lofty Ranges and north in the Gammon Ranges may be due to post‐glacial expansion into these areas from the Flinders Ranges or loss of alleles. Low levels of contemporary gene flow were identified, which suggests Callistemon teretifolius may have a limited capacity to respond to climate change through migration. Range restrictions were predicted for all future climates, especially in the north. It is likely that C. teretifolius will be adversely affected by climate change, due to limited gene flow, predicted range restriction and loss of suitable habitat. The Southern Flinders Ranges should be a priority for conservation because it contains the highest number of individuals and genetic diversity. We recommend monitoring and adaptive management involving restoration in the Southern Flinders Ranges, potentially incorporating genetic translocations from other areas to capture diversity, to assist C. teretifolius to adapt to climate change.