The origin of out‐of‐range pelicans in Europe: wild bird dispersal or zoo escapes?

We tested whether spatial and annual patterns of occurrence of out-of-range Great White Pelecanus onocrotalus , Dalmatian Pelecanus crispus and Pink-backed Pelicans Pelecanus rufescens recorded in Europe between 1980 and 2004 supported a natural vagrancy theory. Candidate variables tested were those likely to influence dispersal and escape probability (distance to the usual breeding/wintering range, national captive stock), and wild breeding population sizes and their movements (size of breeding colonies, climate conditions on wintering grounds or during dispersal). Spatial vagrancy patterns supported the hypothesis of wild birds dispersing from their normal range, with decreasing national totals with increasing distance to the usual range for the three species. Annual out-of-range numbers of Great White Pelican were predicted by breeding colony size and breeding success in Greece, with a further effect of Sahel rainfall during the previous year. Annual numbers of Dalmatian Pelican were related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index and to breeding success in Greece. Finally, annual numbers of Pink-backed Pelican were predicted by summer Sahel rainfall, which is known to drive dispersal of the species northwards into the sub-Sahelian steppes during wet summers there. Hence, annual vagrancy patterns in Europe were well predicted for all three species by population size indices, reproductive success and/or climatic components, which presumably influence survival and/or dispersal. We therefore consider that vagrancy patterns were driven by wild birds, whereas escapes – even if potentially numerous – do not create sufficient 'noise' to hide these patterns.     

Causes of vagrancy of North Asian passerines in western Europe

In recent decades, several explanations for vagrancy of North Asian bird species in Europe have been suggested. The explanations can typically be divided into two, non-exclusive groups. Some cite weather factors as the primary cause of vagrancy, whereas others hypothesize an internal defect behind the phenomenon. In addition, some authors also suggest climate-driven range expansion following breeding population increase as a contributing factor. In recent years, studies have been published that have provided clear evidence for the origin of vagrant birds, as well as the reasons for their vagrancy. Here we summarize current knowledge and conclude that weather, habitat use, feeding habit, breeding success and climate change are important factors that affect the vagrancy of birds, together with the number of observers playing an important role in contributing data. In the future, advances in technology such as the development of tracking systems and the extensive use of stable isotopes will make it possible to explain the causes of vagrancy more precisely, so further research in this area of ornithology is essential.     

The role of demography,intra‐species variation,and species distribution models in species' projections under climate change

Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species‐specific average fecundity and survival rates and linked it to a SDM that predicted changes in habitat suitability through time with changes in climatic variables. We then varied the demographic parameters based upon observed vital rates of local populations from a translocation experiment. Despite the fact that the SDM alone predicted C. vulgaris to be a climate ‘winner’ overall, coupling the model with changes in demography and small‐scale habitat suitability resulted in a matrix of stable, declining, and increasing patches. For populations predicted to experience declines or increases in abundance due to changes in habitat suitability, altered fecundity and survival rates can reverse projected population trends.     

Population trends of European common birds are predicted by characteristics of their climatic niche

Temperate species are projected to experience the greatest temperature increases across a range of modelled climate change scenarios, and climate warming has been linked to geographical range and population changes of individual species at such latitudes. However, beyond the multiple modelling approaches, we lack empirical evidence of contemporary climate change impacts on populations in broad taxonomic groups and at continental scales. Identifying reliable predictors of species resilience or susceptibility to climate warming is of critical importance in assessing potential risks to species, ecosystems and ecosystem services. Here we analysed long‐term trends of 110 common breeding birds across Europe (20 countries), to identify climate niche characteristics, adjusted to other environmental and life history traits, that predict large‐scale population changes accounting for phylogenetic relatedness among species. Beyond the now well‐documented decline of farmland specialists, we found that species with the lowest thermal maxima (as the mean spring and summer temperature of the hottest part of the breeding distribution in Europe) showed the sharpest declines between 1980 and 2005. Thermal maximum predicted the recent trends independently of other potential predictors. This study emphasizes the need to account for both land‐use and climate changes to assess the fate of species. Moreover, we highlight that thermal maximum appears as a reliable and simple predictor of the long‐term trends of such endothermic species facing climate change.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

How much do we overestimate future local extinction rates when restricting the range of occurrence data in climate suitability models?

Climate suitability models are used to make projections of species’ potential future distribution under climate change. When studying the species richness with such modeling methods, the extent of the study range is of particular importance, especially when the full range of occurrence is not considered for some species, often because of geographical or political limits. Here we examine biases induced by the use of range‐restricted occurrence data on predicted changes in species richness and predicted extinction rates, at study area margins. We compared projections of future suitable climate space for 179 bird species breeding in Iberia and North Africa (27 of them breeding only in North Africa though potential colonizers in Europe), using occurrence data from the full Western Palaearctic (WP) species range and from the often‐considered European‐restricted range. Current and future suitable climatic spaces were modeled using an ensemble forecast technique applied to five general circulation models and three climate scenarios, with eight climatic variables and eight modeling techniques. The use of range‐restricted compared to the full WP occurrence data of a species led to an underestimate of its suitable climatic space. The projected changes in species richness across the focus area (Iberia) varied considerably according to the occurrence data we used, with higher local extinction rates with European‐restricted data (on average 38 vs 12% for WP data). Modeling results for species currently breeding only in North Africa revealed potential colonization of the Iberian Peninsula (from a climatic point of view), which highlights the necessity to consider species outside the focus area if interested in forecasted changes in species richness. Therefore, the modeling of current and future species richness can lead to misleading conclusions when data from a restricted range of occurrence is used. Consequently, climate suitability models should use occurrence data from the complete distribution range of species, or at least within biogeographical areas.     

Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode,Haemonchus contortus,in sheep in Europe

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q₀, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q₀ simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q₀ simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.     

Birds from the Far East in Central Europe: some side-notes to Pfeifer et al. (2007)

The “reverse migration hypothesis” as the explanation for the vagrancy of Far Eastern birds in Europe is commented on. It is concluded that, as the postulated switch of 180° along a great circle line would lead the eastern or even central Siberian birds to North America rather than to Europe, the application of the “reverse migration hypothesis” to them seems untenable (which, however, does not preclude its plausibility in case of transatlantic, southern European, or even southwestern Siberian vagrants). On the other hand, patterns of appearance of the Turdus [naumanni] superspecies (Machalska et al. 1967) suggest the relationship of the phenomenon of vagrancy to post-breeding nomadic movements and/or periodical invasions of non-migrating species.     

Climate determinants of breeding and wintering ranges of lesser kestrels in Italy and predicted impacts of climate change

Climate warming would theoretically create conditions for the breeding range expansion of pseudo‐steppe Mediterranean and long‐distance migrant species and provide the possibility for these to overwinter in the same breeding areas. However, contemporary changes in rainfall regimes might have negative effects on the climate suitability and in turn, shrink species potential range. The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni is highly sensitive to rainfall oscillations and has recently extended its Italian breeding range towards northern latitudes and increasing its wintering records. We modelled the effects of temperature and rainfall on current and future climate suitability for lesser kestrels in both the breeding and wintering periods by using MaxEnt. Models were based on the distribution of 298 colonies and 40 wintering records. Future climate suitability was assessed under eight different scenarios. Spring rainfall amount resulted as the main determinant of breeding climate suitability, so its predicted reduction will determine a shrinkage in suitable areas (–42.10% in 2050; –32.07% in 2070). Specifically, the 66.05% of Italian colonies will be outside the climatically suitable area by 2050. However wide areas, suitable under current climate conditions, are still not occupied by lesser kestrel and allow the potential expansion of its Italian breeding range in the short term. Temperature seasonality mainly determined the species’ winter climate suitability, which is overall predicted to boost in the next decades (+145.03% in 2050; and +123.91% in 2070). All but one future scenarios predicted a northward shift of about 40 km for both breeding and wintering climate suitability. Despite its recent expansion, we have found that climate change will pose conservation concerns for the Italian breeding population of lesser kestrels. Indeed, changes in non‐climate factors will also outline the future suitability of the Italian range for lesser kestrels in both seasons with effects that might both strengthen or mitigate climate effects.     

Birds from the Far East in Central Europe: a test of the reverse migration hypothesis

Every year birdwatchers throughout Europe record the arrival of a considerable number of vagrants from the eastern Palaearctic. We analysed the occurrence of such vagrants in Central Europe of the genera Phylloscopus, Turdus and Zoothera in Central Europe. Our results revealed that the occurrence of a species depended on total population size, but not on body size. Furthermore, the occurrence of species in Central Europe increased with distance between the breeding range and wintering range, but the distance between the breeding range and Europe had no effect. These results indicate that the migratory restlessness of species determines whether an East Asian species arrives in Europe. Overall, our data support the hypothesis that the migratory program determines vagrancy.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

Physiological effects of climate on distributions of endothermic species

Aim Determining the mechanisms underlying climatic limitation of species distributions is essential for understanding responses to current climatic change. Disentangling direct (e.g. physiological) and indirect (e.g. trophic) effects of climate on distributions through occurrence‐based modelling is problematic because most species use the same area for both shelter and food acquisition. By focusing on marine birds that breed on land but feed at sea, we exploit a rare opportunity to dissociate direct from indirect climatic effects on endothermic species. Location Coastal Europe. Methods We developed climate‐response surfaces (CRS) for 13 seabird species in coastal Europe, linking terrestrial climatic variables considered important for heat transfer with presence/absence data across each species’ entire European breeding range. Agreement between modelled and actual distribution was assessed for jackknifed samples using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic plots. Higher AUC values indicated closer correspondence between observed breeding distribution and terrestrial climate. We assessed the influence of several ecological factors on model performance across species. Results Species maximum foraging range and breeding latitude explained the greatest proportion of variation in AUC across species. AUC was positively related to both latitude and foraging range. Main conclusions The positive relationship between foraging range and AUC suggests that species foraging further are more likely to be constrained by environmental heat stress conditions at the breeding site. One plausible explanation is that long foraging trips result in one parent spending long periods in continuous nest attendance, exposed to such conditions. These may include negative impacts through predation and parasitism in addition to physiological responses to the thermal environment, which probably explains why our models performed better for species breeding at higher latitudes, where such species interactions are considered less important. These data highlight the importance of considering physiological impacts of climate for endothermic species, and suggest that widespread oceanographic changes that reduce prey quality and quantity for seabirds at sea may be exacerbated by additional impacts of climate at the breeding site.     

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988–1991 and 2008–2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north‐west and north‐east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer‐effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north–north‐westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species‐specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.     

Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change

Aim  Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change.
Location  Europe.
Methods  We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change.
Results  Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found.
Main conclusions  This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities.     

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species'' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.     

Breeding ground temperature rises,more than habitat change,are associated with spatially variable population trends in two species of migratory bird

Habitat loss and climate change are key drivers of global biodiversity declines but their relative importance has rarely been examined. We attempted to attribute spatially divergent population trends of two Afro-Palaearctic migrant warbler species, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus and Common Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, to changes in breeding grounds climate or habitat. We used bird counts from over 4000 sites across the UK between 1994 and 2017, monitored as part of the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey. We modelled Willow Warbler and Common Chiffchaff population size and growth in relation to habitat, climate and weather. We then used the abundance model coefficients and observed environmental changes to determine the extent to which spatially varying population trends in England and Scotland were consistent with attribution to climate and habitat changes. Both species' population size and growth correlated with habitat, climate and weather on their breeding grounds. Changes in habitat, in particular woodland expansion, could be linked to small population increases for both species in England and Scotland. Both species' populations correlated more strongly with climate than weather, and both had an optimum breeding season temperature: 11°C for Willow Warbler and around 13.5°C for Common Chiffchaff (with marginally different predictions from population size and growth models). Breeding ground temperature increases, therefore, had the potential to have caused some of the observed Willow Warbler declines in England (where the mean breeding season temperature was 12.7°C) and increases in Scotland (mean breeding season temperature was 10.2°C), and some of the differential rates of increase for Common Chiffchaff. However, much of the variation in species' population abundance and trends were not well predicted by our models and could be due to other factors, such as species interactions, habitat and climate change in their wintering grounds and on migration. This study provides evidence that the effect of climate change on a species may vary spatially and may switch from being beneficial to being detrimental if a temperature threshold is exceeded.     

Influence of climate change on the abundance, distribution and phenology of woodland bird species in temperate regions

There is now overwhelming evidence that an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere has caused global temperatures to increase by 0.6 °C since 1900 and further increases of between 1.4 and 5.8 °C are predicted over the next century. Changes in climatic conditions have already influenced the demography, phenology and distribution of a wide range of plant and animal taxa. This review focuses on the impacts, both observed and potential, of climate change on birds breeding in temperate woodlands of the Western Palaearctic, a significant proportion of which are currently declining. Changes in ambient temperatures and patterns of precipitation may have direct and indirect effects on the survival rates and productivity of bird species, thus influencing population sizes. For some species or populations, the timing of events such as egg-laying and return from the wintering grounds is also changing in relation to shifts in the peak of food availability during the breeding season. The degree to which different individuals are able to track these temporal changes will have a significant bearing on population sizes and distributions in the future. Unless active management steps are taken, the relatively low dispersal rates of tree species may lead to a decrease in the total area of some woodland habitat types as losses at the southern edge of the range are likely to occur much more quickly than expansion at the northern edge. In addition, the dispersal rates of many woodland birds are themselves low, which could affect their ability to move to new habitat patches if currently occupied areas become unsuitable. Thus, woodland birds may be particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.     

Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds

Background

Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species'' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species'' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.

Conclusions/Significance

Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.     

Immense plasticity of timing of breeding in a sedentary forest passerine,Poecile palustris

Numerous bird species have advanced their breeding seasons in response to climate warming. These changes were mostly brought about by phenotypic plasticity, i.e. flexible reactions of individual birds, rather than by microevolutionary change. Knowing the limits of plasticity is thus of paramount importance in any attempt to predict possible reactions of birds to climate warming. However, the breeding performance of the same individuals in contrasting environmental conditions, necessary to answer this question, is rarely observed. Here, we provide data on the flexibility in timing of egg‐laying of individual marsh tit Poecile palustris females breeding in an extremely late (2013) and early (2014) spring in Bia?owie?a National Park (Poland). In both years the birds stayed in the same places in the primeval old‐growth forest, free of direct human influences (no nest‐boxes, no additional food). The weather variation was within the range of conditions observed during 40 yr in the study area, and no climate warming occurred in the marsh tit's pre‐breeding period. Females (n = 16) shifted the onset of laying by 13–23 (median = 20) days between the seasons. This range of individual flexibility encompasses almost the whole latitudinal range of the breeding dates found across Europe. Such a buffer of plasticity would probably be sufficient for marsh tits to adjust the onset of egg‐laying to the forecasted range of climate change. A combination of temperature and photoperiod appears to be involved in fine tuning of the birds’ breeding times with spring conditions, but how the birds asses and integrate this information remains poorly understood.