Mechanisms of density dependence in fluctuating vole populations: deducing annual density dependence from seasonal processes

Based on recent advances in time-series analyses of ecological dynamics using statistical and mathematical models, we summarise our recent results on the seasonal processes in the annual population dynamics of the grey-sided vole Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sundevall, 1846) in Hokkaido, Japan, and report additional analyses on annual and seasonal density dependence. Annual direct density dependence was strong in almost all populations. In contrast, delayed density dependence was generally weak, although clear delayed density dependence was detected in some of the studied populations. Although seasonal density dependence was observed both in winter and summer, direct density dependence was much more profound during winter; thus, winter density dependence contributed most to the overall annual direct density dependence. We found no correlation between the seasonal components of annual direct density dependence; however, the corresponding seasonal components for annual delayed density dependence were positively correlated. We conclude that winter conditions influence the strength of annual direct density dependence most profoundly. Moreover, we conclude that direct density dependence during summer and winter may be generated by different mechanisms, whereas delayed density dependence seems to be generated by a common mechanism. Candidate mechanisms are discussed in relation to general knowledge of northern rodent populations and to specific insights provided by earlier studies of grey-sided voles in Hokkaido.     

Density-dependent variation in body mass of voles

We studied inter-annual, spatial and sexual variation in the body mass of bank volesMyodes glareolus Schreber, 1780 and grey-sided volesMyodes rufocanus Sundevall, 1846 using live trappings from two grids on the southand north-facing slopes of a mountain valley in Southern Norway. Variation in spring density of the four populations was consistent with cyclic dynamics (n=7,s-values >0.5). Individuals caught on the south-facing slope were larger than those caught on the north-facing slope. Reproductively mature bank vole males were smaller than females, whereas reproductively mature grey-sided vole males were larger than females. Body mass was related to density in both species. In bank voles, we found a direct positive density dependence caused by a higher rate of survival at higher densities resulting from individual allocation of resources from reproduction to survival and growth. In grey-sided voles, we found a negative delayed density dependence resulting from grazing on preferred plants that determined the resource available for individual vole growth the following year.     

Interactive effects of past and present environments on overwintering success-a reciprocal transplant experiment

Life-history traits are influenced by environmental factors throughout the lifespan of an individual. The relative importance of past versus present environment on individual fitness, therefore, is a relevant question in populations that face the challenge of temporally varying environment. We studied the interacting effects of past and present density on body mass, condition, and survival in enclosure populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) using a reciprocal transplant design. In connection with the cyclic dynamics of natural vole populations, our hypothesis was that individuals born in low-density enclosures would do better overwintering in low-density enclosures than in high-density enclosures and vice versa. Our results show that the effect of summer (past) density was strong especially on survival and body mass. The response of body mass to summer density was negative in both winter (present) density groups, whereas the response of survival probability was nonlinear and differed between the winter density groups. In particular, our data show a trend for higher overwintering success of individuals originating from the lowest summer densities in low winter density and vice versa. We therefore conclude that the capacity of individuals to respond to a change in density was constrained by the delayed density-dependent effects of environment experienced in the past. These effects have the potential to contribute to vole population dynamics. Possible mechanisms mediating the effects of past environment into present performance include both intrinsic and environmental factors.     

Climate and density shape population dynamics of a marine top predator

Long-term studies have documented that climate fluctuations affect the dynamics of populations, but the relative influence of stochastic and density-dependent processes is still poorly understood and debated. Most studies have been conducted on terrestrial systems, and lacking are studies on marine systems explicitly integrating the fact that most populations live in seasonal environments and respond to regular or systematic environmental changes. We separated winter from summer mortality in a seabird population, the blue petrel Halobaena caerulea, in the southern Indian Ocean where the El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects occur with a 3-4-year lag. Seventy per cent of the mortality occurred in winter and was linked to climatic factors, being lower during anomalous warm events. The strength of density dependence was affected by climate, with population crashes occurring when poor conditions occurred at high densities. We found that an exceptionally long-lasting warming caused a ca. 40% decline of the population, suggesting that chronic climate change will strongly affect this top predator. These findings demonstrate that populations in marine systems are particularly susceptible to climate variation through complex interactions between seasonal mortality and density-dependent effects.     

Home range size and overlap in female root voles: effects of season and density

In small mammals living in highly seasonal environments, observationalstudies show that female home range size and exclusiveness aresmaller in the nonbreeding winter season than in the breedingsummer season. This has led to the notion that nonbreeding femalesare more social and decrease territorial behavior during winter.However, because territoriality decreases with increasing populationdensity, and density normally increases during the breedingseason, the effects of density and season on social structureare usually confounded. To find out which of the 2 factors explainsspace use, we experimentally established 3 high-density and3 low-density root vole (Microtus oeconomus) populations inlate spring and monitored the populations into the nonbreedingwinter season. Population sizes were controlled throughout thebreeding period to minimize seasonal variation in density. Homerange sizes were larger in founder females than in field-bornfemales but did not change with season or density. Area exclusivelyused by individual females was lower in winter than summer,and founder females decreased exclusiveness as density increased.We argue that this seasonal pattern of space use might be causedby variation in benefits of group living, whereas founder femalesalso responded to density-dependent competition by reducingarea exclusively used.     

Evidence for different drivers behind long-term decline and depression of density in cyclic voles

Decline and long-term depression of mean densities of the grey-sided vole (Myodes rufocanus) and the field vole (Microtus agrestis) have occurred in managed forest landscapes of Sweden since the 1970s. Generally poor over-winter survival during a period with mild winters suggested a common climatic driver, but other explanations exist. Here we explore the response of the grey-sided vole, preferring forested habitats, and the field vole, preferring open habitats, to clear-cutting of old forest in Sweden. The cumulated impact from long-term clear-cutting explained local disappearances of the grey-sided vole. Maintained connectivity of old forest to stone fields was important for local population survival, since no such populations disappeared. For the grey-sided vole, it is probable that climate is not the dominating driver due to different timing of the decline in our study area. Instead, habitat loss is concluded as being a potential cause of the decline in mean density and depression of grey-sided vole densities. The long-lasting depression of field vole densities, despite favourable landscape changes, suggests action of another strong driver. A recent field vole recovery, essentially back to pre-decline densities and distribution, coincided with favourable winter/snow conditions, suggesting a climatic driver in this case.     

Changes over time in the spatiotemporal dynamics of cyclic populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis L.)

We demonstrate changes over time in the spatial and temporal dynamics of an herbivorous small rodent by analyzing time series of population densities obtained at 21 locations on clear cuts within a coniferous forest in Britain from 1984 to 2004. Changes had taken place in the amplitude, periodicity, and synchrony of cycles and density-dependent feedback on population growth rates. Evidence for the presence of a unidirectional traveling wave in rodent abundance was strong near the beginning of the study but had disappeared near the end. This study provides empirical support for the hypothesis that the temporal (such as delayed density dependence structure) and spatial (such as traveling waves) dynamics of cyclic populations are closely linked. The changes in dynamics were markedly season specific, and changes in overwintering dynamics were most pronounced. Climatic changes, resulting in a less seasonal environment with shorter winters near the end of the study, are likely to have caused the changes in vole dynamics. Similar changes in rodent dynamics and the climate as reported from Fennoscandia indicate the involvement of large-scale climatic variables.     

Red environmental noise and the appearance of delayed density dependence in age-structured populations

Previous work suggests that red environmental noise can lead to the spurious appearance of delayed density dependence (DDD) in unstructured populations regulated only by direct density dependence. We analysed the effect of noise reddening on the pattern of spurious DDD in several variants of the density-dependent age-structured population model. We found patterns of spurious DDD in structured populations with either density-dependent fertility or density-dependent survival of the first age class, inconsistent with predictions from unstructured population models. Moreover, we found that nonspurious negative DDD always emerges in populations with deterministic chaotic dynamics, regardless of population structure or the type of environmental noise. The effect of noise reddening in generating spurious DDD is often negligible in the chaotic region of population deterministic dynamics. Our findings suggest that differences in species' life histories may exhibit different patterns of spurious DDD (owing to noise reddening) than predicted by unstructured models.     

Multi-annual density fluctuations and habitat size enhance genetic variability in two northern voles

In order to gain a better understanding of the consequences of population density cycles and landscape structure for the genetic composition in time and space of vole populations, we analyzed the multiannual genetic structure of the two numerically dominant, sympatric small rodent species of northernmost Fennoscandia. Red voles Myodes rutilus and grey-sided voles M. rufocanus were trapped in the subarctic birch forest along three fjords over five years. Along each fjord, there were four or five altitudinal transects each with five trapping stations. Spring and fall population densities were estimated from mark–recapture data. Grey-sided voles exhibited higher amplitude density fluctuations than red voles. Polymorphism at eight or nine microsatellite loci, determined in 1228 voles, was used to estimate local genetic diversity and differentiation among samples. Genetic diversity was higher in grey-sided voles than in red voles. Spring densities had no effect on local genetic diversity or on differentiation. The amplitude of density fluctuations and the extent of favorable habitat (sub-arctic birch forest) surrounding each site had a positive effect on genetic diversity, and the amplitude of density fluctuations had a negative effect on differentiation in red voles, for which fluctuating populations were compared with more stable populations. The harmonic mean of densities, reflecting average population sizes, had a negative effect on genetic diversity in red voles, but a positive effect in grey-sided voles, for which only fluctuating populations were compared. No other effects were significant for grey-sided voles. A temporal assignment test showed that the spatial structure was more stable in time for populations with more stable population dynamics. Altogether our results suggest that high amplitude density fluctuations lead to more gene flow and higher genetic diversity in vole populations.     

Experimental evidence that livestock grazing intensity affects cyclic vole population regulation processes

Grazing by domestic ungulates may limit the densities of small herbivorous mammals that act as key prey in ecosystems. Whether this also influences density dependence and the regulation of small herbivore populations, hence their propensity to exhibit multi-annual population cycles, is unknown. Here, we combine time series analysis with a large-scale grazing experiment on upland grasslands to examine the effects of livestock grazing intensity on the population dynamics of field voles (Microtus agrestis). Using log-linear modelling of replicated time series under different grazing treatments, we show that increased sheep densities weaken delayed density dependent regulation of vole population growth, hence reducing the cyclicity in vole population dynamics. While population regulation is commonly attributed to both top-down and bottom up processes, our results suggest that regulation of cyclic vole populations can be disrupted by the influence of another grazer in the same trophic level. These results support the view that ongoing changes in domestic grazing intensity, by affecting small mammal dynamics, can potentially have cascading impacts on higher trophic levels, and strongly influence the dynamics of upland grassland systems.     

Predator–vole interactions in northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator–prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.     

Rate of population change in voles from different phases of the population cycle

Factors involved in causing cyclic vole populations to decline, and in preventing populations from recovering during the subsequent low density phase have long remained unidentified. The traditional view of self-regulation assumes that an increase in population density is prevented by a change in the quality of individuals within the population itself, but this is still inadequately tested in the field. We compared the population growth of wild field voles ( Microtus agrestis ) from the low phase (conducted in 1998) with that of voles from the increase phase (conducted in 1999) in predator-proof enclosures (each 0.5 ha) in western Finland. Within a few months, enclosed vole populations increased to high density, and the realised per capita rate of change over the breeding season did not differ between the populations from different cycle phases. This implies that the recovery of populations from the low phase was not hindered by an impoverishment in quality of individual voles. Accordingly, we suggest that population intrinsic factors (irrespective of the mechanisms they are based on) are unlikely to play a significant role in the generation of cyclic density fluctuations of voles. Instead, we discovered direct density-dependent regulation in the vole populations. Accurate estimates of population growth and the observed density dependence provide important information for empirically based models on population dynamics of rodents.     

Cyclic voles and shrews and non-cyclic mice in a marginal grassland within European temperate forest

Cyclic population dynamics of small mammals are not restricted to the boreal and arctic zones of Eurasia and North America, but long-term data series from lower latitudes are still less common. We demonstrated here the presence of periodic oscillations in small mammal populations in eastern Poland using 22-year (1986–2007) trapping data from marginal meadow and river valley grasslands located in the extensive temperate woodland of Białowieża Primeval Forest. The two most common species inhabiting meadows and river valleys, root vole Microtus oeconomus and common shrew Sorex araneus, exhibited synchronous periodic changes, characterised by a 3-year time lag as indicated by an autocorrelation function. Moreover, the cycles of these two species were synchronous within both habitats. Population dynamics of the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius was not cyclic. However, this species regularly reached maximum density 1 year before the synchronized peak of root voles and common shrews, which may suggest the existence of interspecific competition. Dynamics of all three species was dominated by direct density-dependent process, whereas delayed density dependent feedback was significant only in the root vole and common shrew. Climatic factors acting in winter and spring (affecting mainly survival and initial reproduction rates) were more important than those acting in summer and autumn and affected significantly only the common shrew. High temperatures in winter and spring had positive effects on autumn-to-autumn changes in abundance of this species, whereas deep snow in combination with high rainfall in spring negatively affected population increase rates in common shrew.     

Seasonal regulation in fluctuating small mammal populations: feedback structure and climate

We studied fluctuating populations of six small mammal species in the Appalachian Plateau of Pennsylvania, USA for 20 yr. We analyzed the feedback structure of these species using statistical time series models for spring and autumn abundances. All species showed a seasonal density-dependent structure, and in five of them first-order feedbacks were dominant in winter and summer. Instead, southern red-backed voles ( Clethrionomys gapperi ) showed a different feedback structure during winter and summer. In three species ( C. gapperi , Napaeozapus insignis and Peromyscus maniculatus ), environmental factors were more important during summer, while the opposite pattern was found in Blarina brevicauda and Tamias striatus . Snowfall influenced positively the winter population growth rates of southern red-backed voles, white-footed mice, woodland jumping mice and eastern chipmunks. We found seasonal differences in the effects of the small mammals assemblage on population growth rates of the two Peromyscus species. The common feedback structure between seasons observed in most of the species, particularly among voles and mice, points to a different feedback structure from northern cyclic small mammals. We conclude that a seasonal feedback structure dominated by intra- and inter-specific competitive interactions may be at the basis of the population dynamics of these species.     

Long-term pattern of population dynamics in the field vole from central Europe: cyclic pattern with amplitude dampening

The subject of population cycles is regarded as controversial due to a number of unsettled questions such as whether or not cyclic patterns are governed by the same processes at high and low latitudes in Europe. Recent evidence suggests that the dynamics at high and low latitudes share the common temporal pattern of vole dynamics referred to as collapsing population cycles. Despite concurrent interest, the key contention around the causal mechanisms that drive population cycles remains a hot topic in ecology. The aims of this study are to supplement information on the seasonal population dynamics of the field vole Microtus agrestis in the Czech Republic by analysing 25 years of time series data. By applying robust estimation procedures, we estimated several parameters to describe population dynamics, such as population variability, amplitude dampening, cycle period, order of the dynamics and the structure of density dependence. The parameters indicate that field vole dynamics in central Europe are highly variable, cyclic dynamics of order two, with peaks in abundance occurring regularly at intervals of 4–5 years. In addition to exhibiting population cycles, the field vole populations show a pattern of dampened amplitude as observed elsewhere in Europe, including northern latitudes. By analysing temporal trends in seasonal abundances, population growth rates and environmental temperatures, we did not obtain evidence to support the hypothesis that amplitude dampening results from the negative effect of increasingly mild winters on winter population growth rates.     

Understanding the population dynamics of a rare, polyvoltine butterfly

Understanding the effects of endogenous and exogenous factors on population dynamics is essential for assessing the viability of populations, setting recovery goals for endangered species, and evaluating management options. Invertebrates are particularly difficult to monitor and few long-term datasets are available for these species. Additionally, limited resources make it necessary to perform monitoring as efficiently as possible. Here, I use the bivoltine Karner blue butterfly Lycaeides melissa samuelis to demonstrate how analyzing the effects of density-dependent factors and weather on separate life stages can be utilized to understand monitoring data, assess populations and identify critical life-history parameters. My first step was to compare the use of peak numbers as an index of population size with estimates obtained from a more data intensive methodology. Peak numbers proved to be an effective index, and so I utilized this index to analyze 10 and 13 years of monitoring data at two Karner blue butterfly sites in New York, USA. I modeled the effects of weather and density dependence on two distinct population growth rates ( λ ) per year. Analysis with Akaike's Information Criteria indicated that both sites were primarily influenced by density dependence during the summer period and by weather conditions during the winter period. Large population declines occurred in the winter period and were a result of the previous year's dry summer and cool spring weather. I conclude that recovery goals for this endangered species should include a second brood-carrying capacity, mean winter growth rate and multiple sites with independent populations. This study represents a rare, long-term study on the population dynamics of a polyvoltine species. Understanding the population dynamics of polyvoltine species, such as the Karner blue butterfly, will assist in the conservation of many invertebrate and small mammal species.     

Cyclicity and variability in prey dynamics strengthens predator numerical response: the effects of vole fluctuations on white stork productivity

Theory predicts that optimality of life-long investment in reproduction is, among other factors, driven by the variability and predictability of the resources. Similarly, during the breeding season, single resource pulses characterized by short periods and high amplitudes enable strong numerical responses in their consumers. However, it is less well established how spatio-temporal dynamics in resource supplies influence the spatio-temporal variation of consumer reproduction. We used the common vole (Microtus arvalis)—white stork (Ciconia ciconia) resource—consumer model system to test the effect of increased temporal variation and periodicity of vole population dynamics on the strength of the local numerical response of storks. We estimated variability, cycle amplitude, and periodicity (by means of direct and delayed density dependence) in 13 Czech and Polish vole populations. Cross-correlation between annual stork productivity and vole abundance, characterizing the strength of the local numerical response of storks, increased when the vole population fluctuated more and population cycles were shorter. We further show that the onset of incubation of storks was delayed during the years of higher vole abundance. We demonstrate that high reproductive flexibility of a generalist consumer in tracking the temporal dynamics of its resource is driven by the properties of the local resource dynamics and we discuss possible mechanisms behind these patterns.     

Winter herbivory by voles during a population peak: the relative importance of local factors and landscape pattern

1. We studied the relative role of local habitat variables and landscape pattern on vole–plant interactions in a system with grey-sided voles ( Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sund.)) and their favourite winter food plant, bilberry ( Vaccinium myrtillus L.). The study was conducted during a vole peak year (1992–93) in a tundra area in northern Norway.
2. Using Mantel statistics we were able to separate the direct effects of the spatial patterning of habitats and the indirect effects due to spatial aggregations of similar habitats.
3. Results indicate that knowledge about the explicit spatial patterning of patches does not improve our understanding of the system. Instead, two local factors, vegetation height and bilberry biomass, explained more than 50% of the variation in cutting intensity in winter (defined as the proportion of above-ground shoots cut). Increasing vegetation height increased, and increasing bilberry biomass decreased, the cutting intensity.
4. The conclusion that grey-sided voles are able to distribute themselves relative to habitat quality was also partially supported by our estimated over-winter persistence by voles in the various habitats. Vole persistence was uncorrelated with vegetation height, the important predictor of autumn vole density, but tended to correlate with the deviation from the relation between vegetation height and autumn vole density. This conforms to the expectations from the theory of ideal-free habitat distribution.
5. The cue for vole habitat choice, i.e. vegetation height, indicates that either predation or freezing risk is important for voles when selecting over-wintering habitat.     

Disease dynamics in cyclic populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis): cowpox virus and vole tuberculosis (Mycobacterium microti)

The possible role of pathogens in rodent population cycles has been largely neglected since Elton's 'epidemic hypothesis' of 1931. To revisit this question, 12 adjacent, cyclic but out-of-phase populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis) in North East England were studied and the initial results are presented here. The prevalences of antibodies to cowpox virus and of clinical signs of Mycobacterium microti infection (vole tuberculosis) showed delayed (not direct) density dependence (with a lag of three to six months). This did not result from changes in population structure, even though there were such changes associated with the different phases of the cycle. The prevalences rose as vole numbers rose, and peaked as numbers declined. The apparent lag in the numerical response of infection prevalence to changes in host abundance is consistent with the hypothesis that diseases, singly or in combination, play a hitherto underestimated role in the dynamics of cyclic populations.     

Dynamics of intestinal coccidia in peak density Microtus agrestis, Microtus oeconomus and Clethrionomus glareolus populations in Finland

Study of seasonal changes in the occurrence of Eimeria spp. in Microtus agrestis, Clethrionomys glareolus and Microtus oeconomus populations in Finland showed distinct seasonal variation in all three host species: the peaks occurred in both prevalence and density of infection in early autumn. The low prevalence and density of eimerian infections before and during the main crash of vole populations in late winter indicate that these organisms, although potentially pathogenic, do not significantly contribute to the drastic decline in cyclic vole populations.