Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow,Russia

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality–temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to −10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13–30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3–1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.     

Time trends in minimum mortality temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (Central Spain): 1975–2003

The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975–1984, 1985–1994, 1995–2003) to compare confidence intervals (p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.     

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T _max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).     

Excess deaths during the 2004 heatwave in Brisbane, Australia

The paper examines whether there was an excess of deaths and the relative role of temperature and ozone in a heatwave during 7–26 February 2004 in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city accustomed to warm weather. The data on daily counts of deaths from cardiovascular disease and non-external causes, meteorological conditions, and air pollution in Brisbane from 1 January 2001 to 31 October 2004 were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The relationship between temperature and mortality was analysed using a Poisson time series regression model with smoothing splines to control for nonlinear effects of confounding factors. The highest temperature recorded in the 2004 heatwave was 42°C compared with the highest recorded temperature of 34°C during the same periods of 2001–2003. There was a significant relationship between exposure to heat and excess deaths in the 2004 heatwave [estimated increase in non-external deaths: 75 ([95% confidence interval, CI: 11–138; cardiovascular deaths: 41 (95% CI: −2 to 84)]. There was no apparent evidence of substantial short-term mortality displacement. The excess deaths were mainly attributed to temperature but exposure to ozone also contributed to these deaths.     

Cambial sensitivity to rising temperatures by natural condition and artificial heating from late winter to early spring in the evergreen conifer Cryptomeria japonica

Differences in the timing of cambial reactivation and the initiation of xylem differentiation in response to the sum of daily maximum temperatures were studied in two Cryptomeria japonica trees with cambium of different ages under natural and locally heated conditions. In addition, we observed the effects of low temperature on cambial activity. The timing of cambial reactivation and of the initiation of xylem differentiation differed between 55- and 80-year-old cambium under natural conditions. In the 55-year-old cambium, cambial reactivation occurred when the cambial reactivation index (CRI), calculated on the basis of daily maximum temperatures in excess of 10°C, was 94 and 97°C in 2007 and 2008, respectively. In 80-year-old cambium, cambial reactivation occurred when the CRI, calculated on the basis of daily maximum temperatures in excess of 11°C, was 69 and 71°C in 2007 and 2008, respectively. After cambial reactivation in 2007, normal cell division was evident in the cambium even though the minimum temperature had fallen between −2 and −3°C. Under natural conditions, xylem differentiation started 38–44 days after cambial reactivation. In heated stems, the time between cambial reactivation and the initiation of xylem differentiation ranged from 14 to 16 days, a much shorter time than under natural conditions, indicating that continuous exposure to an elevated temperature had induced earlier xylem differentiation. Our observations indicate that the sensitivity to reactivation inducing stimuli of the cambium depends on both the stage of dormancy and tree age of the cambium.     

Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003

Studies on temperature–mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975–1984, 1985–1994 and 1995–2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly (p < 0.05) with respect to the mean for the study period. A cold-related mortality trigger threshold of −3°C was obtained for Ciudad Real for the period 1990–2003. The significant number of lags (p < 0.05) in the CCFs declined every 10 years in Toledo (5–2–0), Cuenca (4–2–0), Albacete (4–3–0) and Ciudad Real (3–2–1). This meant that, while the trend in cold-related mortality trigger thresholds in the region could not be ascertained, it was possible to establish a reduction in the lagged effects of cold on mortality, attributable to the improvement in socio-economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.     

The influence of ambient temperature on the abundance of Poaceae pollen

The sampling of pollen concentrations over six seasons in north London has revealed the importance of temperature in influencing the start, severity, daily and diurnal variation of Poaceae pollen seasons. Using accumulated degree days above 6°C and rainfall amount as predictors, models have been developed which account for 96% of the variation in the starting date and 91% of the variation in the severity of the Poaceae pollen season. Maximum daily temperature is an important influence on the daily pollen count although this relationship is not linear and maximum daily temperatures within the range 21.1–25°C are associated with the highest daily pollen concentrations. Likewise, when the two-hourly variation of pollen concentration is examined, temperatures within 2–4.9°C above the normal diurnal range, rather than in excess of 5.0°C, are found to be associated with the highest two-hourly concentrations. Occasional night-time maxima of pollen concentration have also been recorded and these are examined in relation to the possibility of temperature inversions, although few conclusive results have emerged.     

Human mortality seasonality in Castile-León, Spain, between 1980 and 1998: the influence of temperature, pressure and humidity

This study was carried out in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain, from 1980 to 1998 and analyzes the relationship between the number of monthly deaths caused by cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases and three meteorological variables: temperature, pressure and humidity. One of the innovations in this study is the application of principal component analysis in a way that differs from its usual application: one single series representing the whole region was constructed for each meteorological variable from the series of eight weather stations. Annual and seasonal mortality trends were also studied. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Castile and Leon. The mortality related to cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems shows a statistically significant rising trend across the study period (an annual increase of 6, 16 and 4‰, respectively). The pressure at which mortality is lowest is approximately the same for all causes of death (about 915 hPa), but temperature values vary greatly (16.8–19.7°C for the mean, 10.9–18.1°C for the minimum, and 24.1–27.2°C for the maximum temperature). The most comfortable temperatures for patients with cardiovascular diseases (16.8°C) are apparently lower than those for patients with respiratory diseases (18.1°C), which are, in turn, lower than in the case of diseases of the digestive system (19.7°C). Finally, the optimal humidity for patients with respiratory diseases is the lowest (24%) among the diseases, and the highest (51%) corresponds to diseases of the digestive system, while the optimal relative humidity for the cardiovascular system is 45%.     

Thermoregulation of alpacas bred in Italy

The present study monitored daily and seasonal variations of rectal temperature in response to different environmental temperatures in alpacas bred in the Italian Apennines at 300 m a.s.l. In each season, the rectal temperature of 33 clinically healthy alpacas was measured three times/day (morning, midday, afternoon). Ambient temperatures were also recorded. Rectal temperatures ranged from a minimum value of 35.1 to a maximum of 39.4°C, with a maximum daily thermal excursion (ΔT_rec) of 3.2°C. Temperatures increased throughout the day, with highly significant differences recorded in both young and adult animals between all the time bands (P < 0.001). These differences were particularly dramatic for adults in summer, when the mean rectal temperature in the morning was 36.3 ± 0.13°C, probably as a consequence of recent shearing. Significant ΔT_rec differences were recorded depending on the season in both young and adult animals (P < 0.001), with the highest ΔT_rec values recorded in summer (although the highest daily ambient excursion value was recorded in winter). In conclusion, similarly to alpacas bred in their natural environment, alpacas bred in Italy show a wide thermal neutrality zone, which is probably an adaptive response, that allows the animals to save energy. In the Italian Apennines, in order to prevent situations of hypothermia, with possible detrimental effects on alpacas’ health and welfare, shearing should be carried out only in warm seasons.     

Grape harvest and yield responses to inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation in an area of north-east Spain with a Mediterranean climate

This study presents an analysis of temperature and precipitation trends and their impact on grape harvests in the Penedès region (NE Spain). It includes analyses of maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures (for both the growing and ripening seasons) and daily rainfall (for the hydrological year, the growing season and each phenological stage) for three observatories in the immediate area. We analysed a series of factors: beginning and end harvest dates; the day on which a given potential alcoholic degree was reached; and yield for several varieties of grape grown in the area in relation to climatic variables. Maximum temperatures increased at all the observatories, with greater values being recorded in recent years (1996–2009) than in previous decades (1960s–2000s): we observed increases in average growing season temperatures of 0.11°C per year for the period 1996–2009 vs 0.04°C per year for the period 1960–2009 at Vilafranca del Penedès. These temperature changes were due mainly to increases in maximum temperatures and an increase in the incidence of extreme heat (number of days with T > 30°C). Crop evapotranspiration also increased significantly during the same period. The Winkler index also increased, so the study area would correspond to region IV according to that climatic classification. There were no significant trends in annual rainfall but rainfall recorded between bloom and veraison decreased significantly at the three observatories, with the greatest decrease corresponding to the period 1996–2009. The dates on which harvests started and ended showed a continuous advance (of between −0.7 and −1.1 days per year, depending on the variety), which was significantly correlated with the average mean and maximum daily growing season temperatures (up to −7.68 days for 1°C increase). Winegrape yield was influenced by the estimated water deficit (crop evapotranspiration minus precipitation) in the bloom-veraison period; this value increased due to a reduction in precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration. Yield may have been reduced by up to 30 kg/ha for each millimetre increase in the estimated water deficit. Under these conditions, new strategies need to be followed in this area in order to maintain grape quality and yield.     

Taking the heat: thermoregulation in Asian elephants under different climatic conditions

Some mammals indigenous to desert environments, such as camels, cope with high heat load by tolerating an increase in body temperature (T _b) during the hot day, and by dissipating excess heat during the cooler night hours, i.e., heterothermy. Because diurnal heat storage mechanisms should be favoured by large body size, we investigated whether this response also exists in Asian elephants when exposed to warm environmental conditions of their natural habitat. We compared daily cycles of intestinal T _b of 11 adult Asian elephants living under natural ambient temperatures (T _a) in Thailand (mean T _a ~ 30°C) and in 6 Asian elephants exposed to cooler conditions (mean T _a ~ 21°C) in Germany. Elephants in Thailand had mean daily ranges of T _b oscillations (1.15°C) that were significantly larger than in animals kept in Germany (0.51°C). This was due to both increased maximum T _b during the day and decreased minimum T _b at late night. Elephant’s minimum T _b lowered daily as T _a increased and hence entered the day with a thermal reserve for additional heat storage, very similar to arid-zone ungulates. We conclude that these responses show all characteristics of heterothermy, and that this thermoregulatory strategy is not restricted to desert mammals, but is also employed by Asian elephants.     

Frost periods and beginning of the ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) pollen season in Basel (Switzerland)

In order to be able to forecast the beginning of the ash pollen season, several meteorological factors have been considered. During these research activities it appeared that the ash pollen release is closely linked to frost periods happening during the months of February and March. For 24 years over a period of 29 consecutive years, a daily concentration of 30 ash pollen grains/m³/day has been reached when the cumulated mean daily temperatures starting on the last day when the absolute minimum temperature is lower or equal to −2 °C amounts on average to 214 °C – admitting a variation of plus or minus 42 °C. As for the five remaining years, rain is three times responsible for the delay of the pollen release. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Hot weather warning might help to reduce elderly mortality in Hong Kong

While there was evidence on the relationship between extreme hot weather and the increase in mortality, particularly from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (stroke), some researchers suggested that early warning systems might reduce mortality. In this study, the relationship between Very Hot Weather Warning (VHWW) and mortality was examined in the context of Hong Kong, which has a sub-tropical climate. An observational study was conducted on the daily number of deaths due to IHD and stroke in the Hong Kong elderly population (aged 65 or above) during summer (May–September) in 1997–2005. Totals of 4,281 deaths from IHD and 4,764 deaths from stroke occurred on days with maximum temperature reaching/exceeding 30.4°C. Multiple linear regression models were used to study the association between VHWW and the daily mortality rates from IHD and from stroke, respectively. Results showed that absence of VHWW was associated with an increase of about 1.23 (95% CI: 0.32, 2.14) deaths from IHD and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.02, 1.92) deaths from stroke among the elderly per day. Public education is required to inform the elderly to take appropriate preventive measures and to remind the public to pay more care and attention to the elderly on days which are not considered to be stressful to the general public. Warning systems tailored for the elderly could also be considered.     

The effect of birthplace on heat tolerance and mortality in Milan, Italy, 1980–1989

The temperature–mortality relationship follows a well-known J-V shaped pattern with mortality excesses recorded at cold and hot temperatures, and minimum at some optimal value, referred as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). As the MMT, which is used to measure the population heat-tolerance, is higher for people living in warmer places, it has been argued that populations will adapt to temperature changes. We tested this notion by taking advantage of a huge migratory flow that occurred in Italy during the 1950s, when a large number of unemployed people moved from the southern to the industrializing north-western regions. We have analyzed mortality–temperature relationships in Milan residents, split by groups identified by area of birth. In order to obtain estimates of the temperature-related risks, log-linear models have been used to fit daily death count data as a function of different explanatory variables. Results suggest that mortality risks differ by birthplace, regardless of the place of residence, namely heat tolerance in adult life could be modulated by outdoor temperature experienced early in life. This indicates that no complete adaptation might occur with rising external environmental temperatures.     

Short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona, Spain

The summer of 2003 was exceptionally hot, leading to an excess of mortality in Europe. Here, we assess the short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona (Spain). Daily mortality from burial records, maximum temperature, relative humidity and photochemical pollutants, were collected for the period 1999–2003. Data was analysed using Poisson regression with generalised additive models. Mortality shows a considerable increase when maximum temperatures are over a threshold temperature of 30.5°C. The risk of death associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold was 6%, 7% and 5% after 1, 2 and 3 days, respectively. Exposure to extreme hot temperatures leads to an significant increase in mortality.     

The impact of future summer temperature on public health in Barcelona and Catalonia,Spain

Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure–response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, “business-as-usual” scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI  340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960–1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.     

Heat-Attributable Deaths between 1992 and 2009 in Seoul,South Korea

BackgroundClimate change may significantly affect human health. The possible effects of high ambient temperature must be better understood, particularly in terms of certain diseases’ sensitivity to heat (as reflected in relative risks [RR]) and the consequent disease burden (number or fraction of cases attributable to high temperatures), in order to manage the threat.PurposeThis study investigated the number of deaths attributable to abnormally high ambient temperatures in Seoul, South Korea, for a wide range of diseases.MethodThe relationship between mortality and daily maximum temperature using a generalized linear model was analyzed. The threshold temperature was defined as the 90^th percentile of maximum daily temperatures. Deaths were classified according to ICD-10 codes, and for each disease, the RR and attributable fractions were determined. Using these fractions, the total number of deaths attributable to daily maximum temperatures above the threshold value, from 1992 to 2009, was calculated. Data analyses were conducted in 2012–2013.ResultsHeat-attributable deaths accounted for 3,177 of the 271,633 deaths from all causes. Neurological (RR 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04–1.11) and mental and behavioral disorders (RR 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01–1.07) had relatively high increases in the RR of mortality. The most heat-sensitive diseases (those with the highest RRs) were not the diseases that caused the largest number of deaths attributable to high temperatures.ConclusionThis study estimated RRs and deaths attributable to high ambient temperature for a wide variety of diseases. Prevention-related policies must account for both particular vulnerabilities (heat-sensitive diseases with high RRs) and the major causes of the heat mortality burden (common conditions less sensitive to high temperatures).     

Day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations of urban mortality in Kyoto,Japan

The study and interpretation of temporal variability in mortality requires the consideration of both exogenous and endogenous influences as underlying factors. In the present paper the relative contribution of fluctuations in daily weather was investigated using the unbiased techniques of lagged cross-correlation and spectral analyses. The study focused on patterns of daily mortality in Kyoto, Japan. Studied herein were total mortality of all ages less accidental, ischemic heart (IHD), cerebrovascular (CVD), cardiovascular (IHD + CVD), cancer and among elderly (over 70 years of age) deaths. The meteorological factors were mean, maximum and minimum daily temperature, mean barometric pressure, mean relative humidity, and mean and maximum wind speed. It was found that after extreme weather conditions, such as heat waves (with mean air temperature in excess of 30°C) or the intrusion of cold waves (with mean air temperature below 0°C), mortality increased to about three times the daily average with a lag effect of usually one—three days and up to one week. Over the year, however, weather fluctuations were found to account statistically for no more than 10% of the overall annual variability in mortality. Importantly, the short-term upswings in mortality were usually accompanied by noticeable drops in the number of deaths on the subsequent days suggesting a triggering effect of external factors. The most weather-sensitive mortality group was people over 70 years of age.