模糊数学在牧草产量预报中的应用

本文在“广义Fuzzy运算的综合评判”的基础上,并结合牧草产量预报实践,提出了一个经验“模型V”,简称“综合决策模型”。 该模型不仅具有计算简捷,容易为群众掌握的优点,而且还扩大了“广义模糊运算的综合评判”的应用范围,为了弥补其不足,还运用数学统计法建立如下的预报模型: (?)=-6.8223-0.4871R_1 0.3033R_2 0.0791R_3 2.8231R_4 0.6361R_5 (7)同时,还用周期方差分析来预报牧草产量。最后,综合运用了上述3种方法来预报牧草产量,提高了预报的精确度,效果更好。本文还举例说明了计算方法,并且讨论了同时运用几种方法进行产量预报的必要性和优越性。     

Sodium-23 and potassium-39 nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation in eye lens. Examples of quadrupole ion magnetic relaxation in a crowded protein environment.

Single and multiple quantum nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopic techniques were used to investigate the motional dynamics of sodium and potassium ions in concentrated protein solution, represented in this study by cortical and nuclear bovine lens tissue homogenates. Both ions displayed homogeneous biexponential magnetic relaxation behavior. Furthermore, the NMR relaxation behavior of these ions in lens homogenates was consistent either with a model that assumed the occurrence of two predominant ionic populations, "free" and "bound," in fast exchange with each other or with a model that assumed an asymmetric Gaussian distribution of correlation times. Regardless of the model employed, both ions were found to occur in a predominantly "free" or "unbound" rapidly reorienting state. The fraction of "bound" 23Na+, assuming a discrete two-site model, was approximately 0.006 and 0.017 for cortical and nuclear homogenates, respectively. Corresponding values for 39K+ were 0.003 and 0.007, respectively. Estimated values for the fraction of "bound" 23Na+ or 39K+ obtained from the distribution model (tau C greater than omega L-1) were less than or equal to 0.05 for all cases examined. The correlation times of the "bound" ions, derived using either a two-site or distribution model, yielded values that were at least one order of magnitude smaller than the reorientational motion of the constituent lens proteins. This observation implies that the apparent correlation time for ion binding is dominated by processes other than protein reorientational motion, most likely fast exchange between "free" and "bound" environments. The results of NMR visibility studies were consistent with the above findings, in agreement with other studies performed by non-NMR methods. These studies, in combination with those presented in the literature, suggest that the most likely role for sodium and potassium ions in the lens appears to be the regulation of cell volume by affecting the intralenticular water chemical potential.     

Dynamics of the interaction of polyreactive immunoglobulins with immobilized antigens]

The kinetic of polyreactive immunoglobulins (PRIG) and immobilized antigen interaction was examined at different temperatures. It was shown that this process can be described by the so-called "competitive" model, and the relatively simple method for the rate constant determination for this process was developed. According to the "competitive" model PRIG molecule could be either in "active" or in "inactive" state and dynamic equilibrium exist between "active" and "inactive" molecules which strongly depend on incubation temperature. Only "active" PRIG can interact with antigens, and this is the reason of strong temperature dependence of PRIG-antigen interaction. The data also show that the mechanism of PRIG-antigen interaction differ from that of antibody-antigen interaction.     

A simplified approach to quasi-linear viscoelastic modeling

The fitting of quasi-linear viscoelastic (QLV) constitutive models to material data often involves somewhat cumbersome numerical convolution. A new approach to treating quasi-linearity in 1-D is described and applied to characterize the behavior of reconstituted collagen. This approach is based on a new principle for including nonlinearity and requires considerably less computation than other comparable models for both model calibration and response prediction, especially for smoothly applied stretching. Additionally, the approach allows relaxation to adapt with the strain history. The modeling approach is demonstrated through tests on pure reconstituted collagen. Sequences of "ramp-and-hold" stretching tests were applied to rectangular collagen specimens. The relaxation force data from the "hold" was used to calibrate a new "adaptive QLV model" and several models from literature, and the force data from the "ramp" was used to check the accuracy of model predictions. Additionally, the ability of the models to predict the force response on a reloading of the specimen was assessed. The "adaptive QLV model" based on this new approach predicts collagen behavior comparably to or better than existing models, with much less computation.     

Multi-spectral mapping of reef bathymetry and coral cover; Kailua Bay,Hawaii

We used high-resolution, airborne, digital, multi-spectral imagery to map bathymetry and the percent of living coral in the nearshore marine environment of Kailua Bay, Oahu, Hawai'i. Three spectral bands, with centers at 488, 551, and 577 nm (each with a full-width half maximum of 10 nm), were selected for good water transmission and good coral/sand/algae discrimination. However, the third band (577 nm) was not used in the depth and bottom-type solutions. The spatial resolution of 1 m per pixel was selected to balance resolution with the size of the total data set. A radiative transfer model accounting for the optical effects of the atmosphere, ocean surface, water, and reflection off the ocean bottom substrates was applied to the multi-spectral images, normalizing multiple images to one another for a mosaic that spans the bay. Atmospheric parameters in the radiative transfer model were estimated from published values measured for similar environments. Water-attenuation coefficients for the model were determined from the observed spectral data values over the sand bottom type in the bay. Relative depth and bottom-type coefficients were derived by a method most simply described as the "differencing" of two spectral bands. Accuracy exceeding 85% in predicted depth was achieved to a depth of 25 m. Depth prediction errors were assessed with comparison to hydrographic survey data. Classification of bottom-type coefficients into seven "percent living coral" categories results in 77% overall accuracy tested by diver-obtained line-intercept transect data (ground truth). Bottom-type coefficients derived by the model were corrected for atmospheric and ocean conditions on the date of collection, so spatial changes in bathymetry and "percent living coral" through time can be analyzed and related to environmental factors. The radiative transfer model and the "differencing" method used to solve for depth and "percent living coral" can be applied to any airborne, passive remote sensing digital data with appropriate spectral bands.     

An algorithmic model of heading perception

On the basis of Hanada and Ejimas (2000) model, an algorithmic model was presented to explain psychophysical data of van den Berg and Beintema (2000) that are inconsistent with vector-subtractive compensation for the rotational flow. The earlier model was modified in order not to use vector-subtractive compensation for the rotational flow. The proposed model computes the center of flow first and then estimates self-rotation; finally, heading is recovered from the center of flow and the estimate of self-rotation. The model explains the data of van de Berg and Beintema (2000). A fusion model of rotation estimates from different sources (efferent signals, proprioceptive feedback, vestibular signals about eye and head rotation, and visual motion) was also presented.     

Using matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) profiling in order to predict clinical outcomes of patients with heart failure

Background

Current risk prediction models in heart failure (HF) including clinical characteristics and biomarkers only have moderate predictive value. The aim of this study was to use matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) profiling to determine if a combination of peptides identified with MALDI-MS will better predict clinical outcomes of patients with HF.

Methods

A cohort of 100 patients with HF were recruited in the biomarker discovery phase (50 patients who died or had a HF hospital admission vs. 50 patients who did not have an event). The peptide extraction from plasma samples was performed using reversed phase C18. Then samples were analysed using MALDI-MS. A multiple peptide biomarker model was discovered that was able to predict clinical outcomes for patients with HF. Finally, this model was validated in an independent cohort with 100 patients with HF.

Results

After normalisation and alignment of all the processed spectra, a total of 11,389 peptides (m/z) were detected using MALDI-MS. A multiple biomarker model was developed from 14 plasma peptides that was able to predict clinical outcomes in HF patients with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 1.000 (p?=?0.0005). This model was validated in an independent cohort with 100 HF patients that yielded an AUC of 0.817 (p?=?0.0005) in the biomarker validation phase. Addition of this model to the BIOSTAT risk prediction model increased the predictive probability for clinical outcomes of HF from an AUC value of 0.643 to an AUC of 0.823 (p?=?0.0021). Moreover, using the prediction model of fourteen peptides and the composite model of the multiple biomarker of fourteen peptides with the BIOSTAT risk prediction model achieved a better predictive probability of time-to-event in prediction of clinical events in patients with HF (p?=?0.0005).

Conclusions

The results obtained in this study suggest that a cluster of plasma peptides using MALDI-MS can reliably predict clinical outcomes in HF that may help enable precision medicine in HF.

     

Frequency of stable chromosomal aberrations determined by FISH in 49 Chernobyl nuclear accident liquidators exposed to various doses of radiation

FISH technique was tested on the 49 liquidators of the Chernobyl Accident. Groups were formed according to average group exposure doses and/or individual ones determined by the method of EPR. The essential variability of spontaneous and irradiation-induced frequencies of reciprocal translocations was observed. In groups with the lowest EPR-doses (below 25 cGy) the average cytogenetic dose was considerably higher then doses determined by EPR-method. The best coincidences between average in-group EPR- and FISH-doses were in the group with 25-50 cGy doses for "acute irradiation" model and in the group with 50-100 cGy and higher for "chronic irradiation" model.     

Fecundibility and social development in China: changes in the distribution of the first conception interval

Supporting evidence was generated to show that the hazard of conception in China increases with the duration of marriage in the first years of marriage, with controls for heterogeneity. The authors suggest that this positive duration dependence reflects a "honeymoon" effect for older cohorts and more rural, traditional areas and a change in social norms. Specifically, in Hebei the shape parameter was larger for older cohorts and it decreased from 1.15 in the model with Gamma mixing and from 1.09 to .95 in the mover-stayer model. This may mean that the "late honeymoon" effect has been decreasing over the past 30 years. Changes were not evident in Shanghai municipality. In the 12 models produced there was positive duration dependence in 10 of the models allowing for heterogeneity, but not all models were significant. The shortening of waiting time to first conception was concluded not to be caused by changes in the marriage age, selection biases, a decline in involuntary childlessness, data defects, or an increase in premarital conceptions. Data were obtained from the 1986 In-Depth Fertility Survey in China for Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and Shanghai municipality. Analysis was with time hazard models: the mover-stayer mixture model, where stayers are the proportion sterile in the population, and the nonparametric model. Data were stratified by place of residence and marriage date. Heterogeneity was treated as a "nuisance" parameter, which indicated unobserved biological, behavioral, and social differences between couples. The distribution of fecundability was not addressed     

A continuum model for pressure-flow relationship in human pulmonary circulation

A continuum model was introduced to analyze the pressure-flow relationship for steady flow in human pulmonary circulation. The continuum approach was based on the principles of continuum mechanics in conjunction with detailed measurement of vascular geometry, vascular elasticity and blood rheology. The pulmonary arteries and veins were considered as elastic tubes and the "fifth-power law" was used to describe the pressure-flow relationship. For pulmonary capillaries, the "sheet-flow" theory was employed and the pressure-flow relationship was represented by the "fourth-power law". In this paper, the pressure-flow relationship for the whole pulmonary circulation and the longitudinal pressure distribution along the streamlines were studied. Our computed data showed general agreement with the experimental data for the normal subjects and the patients with mitral stenosis and chronic bronchitis in the literature. In conclusion, our continuum model can be used to predict the changes of steady flow in human pulmonary circulation.     

The 3D physical-biological model study in the Egyptian Mediterranean coastal sea

The ecosystem of the Egyptian Mediterranean coastal area between longitudes 29°45 E and 33°45 E was seasonally investigated. The obtained data sets for a variety of environmental variables were previously interpolated over the studied area, and used in the coupled physical-biological model Fin-Est. Here, the model has been implemented to solve the central problems in case of modeling local areas and the handling of open boundaries and initial conditions, which almost have significant influence on the results, of both the hydrodynamic and the ecosystem models calculation. In the present study, a multi-step calculations procedure was used in applying the 3 D coupled model at first for the entire Egyptian Mediterranean coastal area. Then, it runs for local areas obtaining the initial conditions and the open boundary ones from larger area calculations. In particular, the zoom-in approach was used for the detailed study of the Eastern Harbour of Alexandria city-Egypt (model grid step = 50 m.) selected from the larger Alexandria Sea (model grid step = 1.25 Km), which in turn was chosen from the Egyptian Mediterranean coastal area (model grid step = 12.5 km). The sensitivity of the model simulations to both physical and biological main factors of the studied areas is tested. Both climatic conditions and land sources effects are considered among the model forcing factors. The resultant simulations are compared with the actual measured values of the parameters. The model sensitivity test results are discussed in the context of the model's capabilities and limitations, and with reference to the available knowledge of the ecosystems of the study areas.     

Kinetics of circular DNA molecule digestion by restriction endonuclease Computation of kinetic constants from time dependence of fragment concentrations

A model for kinetics of circular substrate cleavage by restriction endonuclease was formulated. The aim of the analysis of the model was to extract kinetic constants for all target sites from time-dependence of fragment concentration in reaction products. That was proved to be possible for molecules with an odd number of fragments only. A symmetry of the molecules with an even number of fragment is the cause. A solution for molecules with an odd number of fragments was found and methods for dealing with the other molecules were suggested.Preliminary results were presented at VIIth CMEA Symposium Biophysics of Nucleic Acids and Proteins, Brno (Czechoslovakia) December 2–6, 1985.     

Construction of a five-gene prognostic model based on immune-related genes for the prediction of survival in pancreatic cancer

Purpose: To identify differentially expressed immune-related genes (DEIRGs) and construct a model with survival-related DEIRGs for evaluating the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (PC).Methods: Six microarray gene expression datasets of PC from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and Immunology Database and Analysis Portal (ImmPort) were used to identify DEIRGs. RNA sequencing and clinical data from The Cancer Genome Atlas Program-Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (TCGA-PAAD) database were used to establish the prognostic model. Univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to determine the final variables of the prognostic model. The median risk score was used as the cut-off value to classify samples into low- and high-risk groups. The prognostic model was further validated using an internal validation set of TCGA and an external validation set of {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE62452","term_id":"62452"}}GSE62452.Results: In total, 142 DEIRGs were identified from six GEO datasets, 47 were survival-related DEIRGs. A prognostic model comprising five genes (i.e., ERAP2, CXCL9, AREG, DKK1, and IL20RB) was established. High-risk patients had poor survival compared with low-risk patients. The 1-, 2-, 3-year area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model reached 0.85, 0.87, and 0.93, respectively. Additionally, the prognostic model reflected the infiltration of neutrophils and dendritic cells. The expression of most characteristic immune checkpoints was significantly higher in the high-risk group versus the low-risk group.Conclusions: The five-gene prognostic model showed reliably predictive accuracy. This model may provide useful information for immunotherapy and facilitate personalized monitoring for patients with PC.     

An electro-diffusion model for computing membrane potentials and ionic concentrations in branching dendrites,spines and axons

The Nernst-Planck equation for electrodiffusion was applied to axons, dendrites and spines. For thick processes (1 m) the results of computer simulation agreed accurately with the cable model for passive conduction and for propagating action potentials. For thin processes (0.1 m) and spines, however, the cable model may fail during transient events such as synaptic potentials. First, ionic concentrations can rapidly change in small compartments, altering ionic equilibrium potentials and the driving forces for movement of ions across the membrane. Second, longitudinal diffusion may dominate over electrical forces when ionic concentration gradients become large. We compare predictions of the cable model and the electro-diffusion model for excitatory postsynaptic potentials on spines and show that there are significant discrepancies for large conductance changes. The electro-diffusion model also predicts that inhibition on small structures such as spines and thin processes is ineffective. We suggest a modified cable model that gives better agreement with the electro-diffusion model.     

Estimation of axial dispersion in horizontal rotating tubular bioreactor by means of a structured model

A horizontal rotating tubular bioreactor (HRTB) is designed as the combination of a "thin layer bioreactor" and a "biodisc" reactor. The investigation of mixing in HRTB was done by the temperature step method in a wide range of process conditions [residence time (t_z=360036000 s) and bioreactor rotation speed (n=0.0830.917 s^у)]. In all experiments heat losses were detected. A mathematical model based on "tank in series" concept was developed to describe the mixing in HRTB - a "spiral flow" model (SFM) which has incorporated heat losses. However, the simulations of SFM could be used for calculation of temperature response curves for the case when there is no heat losses. These corrected curves were used then to estimate Bodenstein number as a parameter of standard dispersion model (SDM). The obtained Bodenstein numbers were in the range 10-17. The simulations showed that SFM was more capable to describe the mixing in HRTB giving better fitting with experimental measurements than SDM, indicating that mixing pattern in HRTB is too complex to be described with this relatively simple, one-parameter model.     

Immobility response elicited by clamping the neck induces antinociception in a "tonic pain" test in mice

Clamping the neck followed by body inversion to a supine position in mice elicits an immobility response called immobility by clamping the neck (ICN). The noxious pinch to the scruff of the neck produces antinociception in "phasic pain" models (e.g. tail-flick test). Here, a "tonic pain" model was used to test the antinociception associated with the ICN, and naloxone was used to determine the role of opioids in such antinociception. Mice were injected intraperitoneally with 0.3 mL of 0.4% acetic acid to produce writhing responses that were measured for one hour. ICN was induced every five minutes for one hour. Naloxone (5 mg/kg ip) was injected 10 min before acetic acid administration. There was a control group, sham clamping (SCLA). These mice were handled and restricted every five minutes as in the ICN but without real clamping. The repetitive inductions of ICN were able to reduce the writhing behavior; this antinociception was blocked by the naloxone pretreatment. In the SCLA group antinociception was not observed. These findings indicate that as in the "phasic pain" model, ICN also was able to elicit antinociception in this "tonic pain" model, and such antinociception seems to be mediated by opioids.     

A parallel path model forNecturus proximal tubule

Summary A parallel path model based on the principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics was developed for theNecturus proximal tubule. The cellular path was represented as a luminal membrane followed by an irreversible active NaCl transport system in the peritubular barrier. The shunt pathway was described as three coarse barriers in series: tight junction, lateral intercellular spaces, and basement membrane with connective tissue. Volume and solute flows were predicted by the model equations as a function of applied electric current. Variations of the model parameters revealed the quantitative importance of the shunt path properties and the relative insensitivity of epithelial transport to changes in most cell parameters. Circulation of electric current and solute within the epithelium were shown to significantly influence the bahavior of the tubule in the presence of an electric field. Values for all transport parameters of the shunt path and epithelium were calculated and compared with available experimental evidence. Volume flow and electric currents predicted by the model compared favorably with experimental observations.     

Joint analysis of genetic and epigenetic data using a conditional autoregressive model

Background

Rapidly evolving high-throughput technology has made it cost-effective to collect multilevel omic data in clinical and biological studies. Different types of omic data collected from these studies provide both shared and complementary information, and can be integrated into association analysis to enhance the power of identifying novel disease-associated biomarkers. To model the joint effect of genetic markers and DNA methylation on the phenotype of interest, we propose a joint conditional autoregressive (JCAR) model. A linear score test is used for hypothesis testing and the corresponding p value can be obtained using the Davies method.

Results

The JCAR model was applied to the GAW20 data from the Genetics of Lipid Lowering Drugs and Diet Network (GOLDN) study. In our application of the JCAR model, we consider a baseline model and a full model. In the baseline model, we consider 3 different scenarios: a model with only genetic information, a model with only DNA methylation information at visit 2, and a model using both genetic and DNA methylation information at visit 2. For the full model, we consider both genetic and DNA methylation information at visit 2 and visit 4. The top 10 significant genes are reported for each model. Based on the results, we found that the gene MYO3B was significant as long as the methylation information was considered in the analysis.

Conclusions

JCAR is a useful tool for joint association analysis of genetic and epigenetic data. It is easy to implement and is computationally efficient. It can also be extended to analyze other types of omic data.

     

Environmental impacts of the rental business model compared to the conventional business model: a Korean case of water purifier for home use

Purpose

This paper compares environmental impacts of the rental business model with the conventional model of manufacturing and selling. The case study examines a home use-water purifier by defining scenarios for operation and maintenance of the conventional and rental business models. Another purpose is to explore the potential improvement for the environmental performance of the rental business model in terms of the resource consumption and climate change.

Methods

The functional unit was supplying hot/cold drinking water for 15 years between 1998 and 2013. Primary data were from a Korean company that manufactures and servicizes water purifier; secondary data were from the Korean national LCI database, literatures, and interviews. Scenarios associated with all life cycle stages of a water purifier including operation and maintenance were based on current sales and rental market. Impact assessments were conducted according to the International Organization for Standardization’s 14044, and impact categories considered were global warming and abiotic resource depletion. The key issues and improvement potential of the rental business model were determined with the impact categories of global warming and abiotic resource depletion.

Results and discussion

This study indicates that the rental business model is more environmentally friendly than the conventional model in the impact on global warming while the conventional model shows lower abiotic resource depletion. Product operation was the most significant contributor to the selected environmental impacts for both conventional and rental models. Product maintenance was the second major contributor for the rental business model in terms of abiotic resource depletion. For the conventional model, however, production was a more significant contributor to the selected environmental impacts. The rental model showed approximately 32~37% improvements in the selected environmental impacts by focusing on the environmental education or information to consumers.

Conclusions

This quantitative life cycle assessment can be a tool for service business providers to understand the life cycle environmental impacts of Korean water purifier and explore potential improvement opportunities for sustainability. The lower life cycle impacts of the water purifier-rental business model can be attributed to the following: the preparation of instruction or environmental education regarding the consumer’s turning off behavior when the product is not in use, thus lower energy consumption during the use stage and shorter distance traveled for maintenance.