Quests for cures: A history of tourism for climate and health

This paper creates a framework for the study of the history of tourism for climate and health. It traces the ways in which people have both moved away from detrimental health conditions and towards places thought to provide climatic cures. It brings to light the complex issues that have affected the course of the tourist trade. In this way it helps to explain that the modern geographical distribution of the highly fashionable resort areas of the world owe a great deal to past and present interpretations of the HippocraticCorpus.     

How climate change affects the occurrence of a second generation in the univoltine Pyrrhocoris apterus (Heteroptera: Pyrrhocoridae)

1. Understanding the conditions that allow for the occurrence of an additional generation in populations that are usually univoltine is important under the present climate warming. In temperate areas, a second generation is enabled through the emergence of a time window that opens when first-generation individuals are ready to reproduce and closes when second-generation individuals cannot complete development before the onset of winter. 2. The conditions that limit the width of this window were studied in Pyrrhocoris apterus (Heteroptera: Pyrrhocoridae), a ground-inhabiting heteropteran overwintering in facultative adult diapause, whose populations in Central Europe have typically been univoltine until the 1980s. 3. The frequency of females of the first generation that started to lay eggs decreased from 70% in June to zero in early August, but oviposition of these females continued until the end of August. Using thermal constants for egg–adult development and temperature data, this study found that the development of most second-generation individuals could only be completed before the start of winter if hastened through behavioural thermoregulation. 4. Consequences of temperature increase on the width of the thermal window were calculated. Increasing temperature causes the time window to open earlier and close later by accelerating maturation of first-generation females and improving conditions for maturing of the second-generation individuals in late summer and autumn. 5. Climate warming will create conditions that facilitate the occurrence of a second generation in a year in typically univoltine populations of this species.     

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.     

2001—2020年川西北高原归一化植被指数演变特征及其对极端气候的响应

川西北高原是典型的生态气候敏感区,其植被状况与气候变化密切相关。本研究基于2001—2020年MODIS-NDVI数据集和气象数据,采用最大值合成、地理探测器模型、线性趋势分析、相关分析等方法,研究川西北高原生长季归一化植被指数(NDVI)的变化趋势及其对气候因子的响应机制。结果表明: 研究期间,川西北高原植被覆盖度整体状况良好,86.8%的区域植被稳定,12.6%的区域NDVI呈弱持续性上升趋势,0.6%的区域NDVI呈下降趋势,全区生态环境呈稳中向好的发展趋势。研究区植被覆盖度空间差异大,总体呈由西南向东北上升的趋势,并有显著的立体变化。海拔1350 m以下,NDVI随海拔升高而上升;海拔1350～3650 m,NDVI无显著变化;海拔3650～5900 m,NDVI随海拔升高而下降,在4750～5900 m快速下降;海拔5900 m以上,几乎无植被。川西北高原的NDVI受多种自然因子交互作用影响,热量因子(月最高气温极大值、月最低气温极小值、植物生长期、年均温、生长期均温)是主导气候因子,除月最高气温极大值外,其余温度因子对NDVI均以正贡献为主。NDVI对气温指数的响应高于降水指数。在气候变暖背景下,极端气温暖指数对川西北高原植被生长尤其是高海拔地区植被生长及改善以促进作用为主。     

西南地区不同植被类型归一化植被指数与气候因子的相关分析

基于中国西南地区1982—2006年的归一化植被指数(NDVI)遥感数据集和气象数据,运用GIS技术对年均气温、年降水量和干旱指数进行插值,分析了西南地区不同植被类型(沼泽、灌丛、草丛、草原、草甸、针叶林、阔叶林、高山植被、栽培植被)NDVI的年际变化及其与气候因子的相关性.结果表明:研究期间,西南地区NDVI、年均气温、年降水量总体呈上升趋势,其中,年均气温的上升趋势达极显著水平,干旱指数则呈下降趋势;在9种植被类型中,沼泽和草丛NDVI呈下降趋势,且草丛的下降趋势达显著水平,其他7种植被类型的NDVI均呈上升趋势,且针叶林、草甸和高山植被的NDVI上升趋势达显著水平,灌丛NDVI呈极显著上升趋势.9种植被类型所在地区的年均气温均显著上升;年降水量的变化均不显著;沼泽、草丛和栽培植被所在地区的干旱指数呈上升趋势,草甸和高山植被所在地区的干旱指数显著下降,其他4种植被类型所在地区的干旱指数呈不明显的下降趋势.研究区灌丛和针叶林NDVI与年均气温呈显著正相关,灌丛和草甸NDVI与干旱指数呈显著负相关.在保持其他2个气候因子不变的情况下,针叶林、阔叶林、高山植被NDVI与年均气温的相关性最大,草丛NDVI与年降水...     

An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change

Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June–August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June–August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June–August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation.We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere–ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO₂. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.     

基于局地气候优化的城市蓝绿空间规划途径研究进展

在高密度、高强度的城市建设模式下,我国大中城市内部均面临着热岛效应加剧、通风能力下降、灰霾天气频发等局地气候环境问题。城市蓝绿空间作为调控城市风热环境、改善大气环境质量的关键要素,已成为城市空间规划设计领域应对局地气候问题的重要研究对象。本文通过对国内外城市蓝绿空间局地气候效应研究文献资料的回顾,从城市蓝绿空间规划布局、网络构建两个层面,梳理了冷岛景观特征优化、冷岛空间镶嵌布局、通风廊道网络连通、通风廊道界面管控的规划学途径研究进展,并总结了相关研究的主要成果及存在的主要问题,提出从智能仿真平台、评估指标体系、规划设计指南、实施保障机制4方面建立城市蓝绿空间规划应对局地气候问题的研究框架,以期为城市气候适应性规划理论创新提供有益启示。     

Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region

Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970-1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability (p=0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970-1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.     

Different responses of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolia oak (Quercus mongolica) growth to recent climate warming in northeast China

Different tree species growing in the same area may have different, or even contrasting growth responses to climate change. Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolia oak (Quercus mongolica) are two crucial tree species in temperate forest ecosystems. Six tree-ring chronologies for Korean pine and Mongolia oak were developed by using the zero-signal method to explore their growth response to the recent climate warming in northeast China. Results showed that Mongolia oak radial growth was mainly limited by precipitation in the growing season, while Korean pine growth depended on temperature condition, especially monthly minimum temperature. With the latitude decrease, the relationships between Korean pine growth and monthly precipitation changed from negative to positive correlation, while the positive correlation with monthly temperature gradually weakened. In the contrary, Mongolia oak growth at the three sampling sites was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in the growing season, while it was negatively correlated with temperature and this relationship decreased with the latitude decrease. The radial growth of Korean pine at different sites showed a clearly discrepant responses to the recent warming since 1980. Korean pine growth in the north site increased with the temperature increase, decreased in the midwest site, and almost unchanged in the southeast site. Conversely, Mongolia oak growth was less affected by the recent climate warming. Our finding suggested that tree species trait and sites are both key factors that affect the response of tree growth to climate change. In addition, the suitable distribution area of Korean pine may be moved northward with the continued global warming in the future, but Mongolia oak may not shift in the same way.     

Implications of climate change for North American wood warblers (Parulidae)

Since 1912, Neotropical–Nearctic migrant birds may now have up to 20 fewer days to travel between Southern Illinois, where spring is arriving later, and Northern Minnesota, where spring is arriving earlier, to exploit optimal habitat conditions (expanding leaves and caterpillar activity) for refueling and breeding. As case studies of the effect of climate change on bird migration, I analyzed two long‐term data sets of arrival times for eight species of northern breeding migratory wood warblers (Parulidae) gathered over a 100 year period in east‐central Illinois (IL, USA) and a 40 year period in western Minnesota (MN, USA). Six (IL) and seven (MN) of the wood warbler species showed no significant tendency to migrate earlier in response to earlier springs in their breeding range. These results suggest that climate change may force many species of long‐distance migratory songbirds to become uncoupled in the spring from their food resources that are driven by temperature.     

Predicting species responses to climate change: demography and climate microrefugia in California valley oak (Quercus lobata)

Anticipating species movement under climate change is a major focus in conservation. Bioclimate models are one of the few predictive tools for adaptation planning, but are limited in accounting for (i) climatic tolerances in preadult life stages that are potentially more vulnerable to warming; and (ii) local‐scale movement and use of climatic refugia as an alternative or complement to large‐scale changes in distribution. To assess whether these shortfalls can be addressed with field demographic data, we used California valley oak (Quercus lobata Nee), a long‐lived species with juvenile life stages known to be sensitive to climate. We hypothesized that the valley oak bioclimate model, based on adults, would overpredict the species' ability to remain in the projected persisting area, due to higher climate vulnerability of young life stages; and underpredict the potential for the species to remain in the projected contracting area in local‐scale refugia. We assessed the bioclimate model projections against actual demographic patterns in natural populations. We found that saplings were more constricted around surface water than adults in the projected contracting area. We also found that the climate envelope for saplings is narrower than that for adults. Saplings disappeared at a summer maximum temperature 3 °C below that associated with adults. Our findings indicate that rather than a complete shift northward and upward, as predicted by the species bioclimate model, valley oaks are more likely to experience constriction around water bodies, and eventual disappearance from areas exceeding a threshold of maximum temperature. Ours is the first study we know of to examine the importance of discrete life stage climate sensitivities in determining bioclimate modeling inputs, and to identify current climate change‐related constriction of a species around microrefugia. Our findings illustrate that targeted biological fieldwork can be central to understanding climate change‐related movement for long‐lived, sessile species.     

山东省极端气候和人类活动对不同植被类型NDVI的影响

山东省作为我国华东典型的沿海地区,气候多变,人口密集,开展极端气候和人类活动对植被的影响对沿海地区生态环境稳定具有重要意义。基于BRT模型、多元线性回归方程和残差分析等方法研究了不同植被在极端气候和人类活动干扰下的生长状况。结果显示：（1）2000-2020年山东省全区NDVI （归一化植被指数）呈增长趋势且具有正持续性（H>0.5）。空间上,鲁西北和鲁西南植被生长状况较好且得到了显著改善,而北部黄河三角洲和莱州湾地区植被覆盖低且得到了显著退化。不同植被类型中草丛植被得到了显著改善（P<0.05）,而草甸植被退化较为严重;（2）近年来夜间温度（TMINmean、TN90p）的上升,连续干旱日数CDD和瞬时强降雨RX1d的增加有利于研究区植被的增长,而高温极值TXx的上升以及霜冻日数FDO的减少抑制了植被的增长;（3）对于不同植被类型,整体上受到极端气温的影响较大,且对栽培植物和针叶林的解释度更高,同一指标对不同植被类型的影响程度和正负效应存在较大的差异;（4）人类活动在全区植被变化中占主导地位且起到了显著改善作用（P<0.05）。不同植被类型中草甸受到人类活动的干扰最为明显,而针叶林则更多受到气候变化的影响。研究结果能对山东省植被未来的管理和规划提供科学支撑,同时对沿海地区生态环境调控和可持续发展起到了促进作用。     

A retained viability index (RVI10) for evaluation of a cyanobacterial powder fertilizer

The preparation of a dry and powder fertilizer based on five nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterial strains is described. Tolypothrix tenuis and Nostoc muscorum resisted the drying and milling processes and showed a suitable recovering capacity in liquid media of different pH and salinity. Although a decrease in the cellular viability was observed with the storage time, the biomass of Nostoc muscorum retained viability for 16 months. The results were evaluated in terms of the retained viability index (RVI₁₀) specifically designed for the fertilizer material.     

芦芽山自然保护区旅游开发与植被环境关系——旅游影响系数及指标分析

采用旅游影响系数对芦芽山自然保护区旅游开发与植被环境的关系进行了继续探讨。结果表明：(1)6个旅游影响因子之间的正负相关性均很好地体现了旅游活动对各因子影响的规律性,同时也说明了旅游影响因子的选择与确定以及对其赋值的正确性。它们与自然地理因子、人文地理因子的相关性说明了它们作为评价指标的可行性,同时也说明旅游活动是景区管理的主要对象。(2)根据旅游影响系数评价分级可知,整个自然保护区管理水平呈良级和中等水平,某些地段已出现危机感。其中,冰口凹和山顶附近是人为活动影响最强烈、质量管理最差的地段。评价分级的结果较好地反映了芦芽山旅游开发现状,与实际状况大致吻合,说明这一方法是可行的。(3)评价指标之间的相关性表明,距游径的水平距离愈远,敏感水平愈低,景观重要值愈大,物种多样性信息指数愈大或者稳定,旅游影响系数愈小。     

A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate

There is compelling evidence from glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary of the utilization of microrefugia. Microrefugia are sites that support locally favorable climates amidst unfavorable regional climates, which allow populations of species to persist outside of their main distributions. Knowledge of the location of microrefugia has important implications for climate change research as it will influence our understanding of the spatial distribution of species through time, their patterns of genetic diversity, and potential dispersal rates in response to climate shifts. Indeed, the implications of microrefugia are profound and yet we know surprisingly little about their climatic basis; what climatic processes can support their subsistence, where they may occur, their climatic traits, and the relevance of these locations for climate change research. Here I examine the climatic basis for microrefugia and assert that the interaction between regional advective influences and local terrain influences will define the distribution and nature of microrefugia. I review the climatic processes that can support their subsistence and from this climatic basis: (1) infer traits of the spatial distribution of microrefugia and how this may change through time; (2) review assertions about their landscape position and what it can tell us about regional climates; and (3) demonstrate an approach to forecasting where microrefugia may occur in the future. This synthesis highlights the importance of landscape physiography in shaping the adaptive response of biota to climate change.     

Satellite‐derived estimates of forest leaf area index in southwest Western Australia are not tightly coupled to interannual variations in rainfall: implications for groundwater decline in a drying climate

There is increasing concern that widespread forest decline could occur in regions of the world where droughts are predicted to increase in frequency and severity as a result of climate change. The average annual leaf area index (LAI) is an indicator of canopy cover and the difference between the annual maximum and minimum LAI is an indicator of annual leaf turnover. In this study, we analyzed satellite‐derived estimates of monthly LAI across forested coastal catchments of southwest Western Australia over a 12 year period (2000–2011) that included the driest year on record for the last 60 years. We observed that over the 12 year study period, the spatial pattern of average annual satellite‐derived LAI values was linearly related to mean annual rainfall. However, interannual changes to LAI in response to changes in annual rainfall were far less than expected from the long‐term LAI‐rainfall trend. This buffered response was investigated using a physiological growth model and attributed to availability of deep soil moisture and/or groundwater storage. The maintenance of high LAIs may be linked to a long‐term decline in areal average underground water storage and diminished summer flows, with an emerging trend toward more ephemeral flow regimes.     

Integrating carbon stocks and landscape connectivity for nature-based climate solutions

Actions to protect against biodiversity loss and climate change will require a framework that addresses synergies between these interrelated issues. In this study, we present methods for identifying areas important for the implementation of nature-based climate solutions and biodiversity conservation by intersecting high-resolution spatial data for carbon storage and landscape connectivity. We explored the spatial congruence of carbon and connectivity in Ontario, Canada and examined effectiveness of current protected areas coverage. We found a weak positive relationship between carbon stocks and landscape connectivity; however, our maps revealed large hotspots, with high values of both indices, throughout the boreal forest and northern peatlands and smaller, isolated hotspots, in the settled landscapes of the south. Location of hotspots varied depending on whether we considered forest or soil carbon. Further, our results show that current protected and conserved areas in Ontario only cover 13% of landscapes with the highest values for both carbon storage and connectivity. Protection or restoration of areas that maximize the co-benefits of carbon storage and connectivity would make significant contributions toward ambitious national targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and conserve biodiversity.     

Changing climate mediates sapsucker (Aves: Sphyrapicus) hybrid zone movement

Hybrid zones, where two divergent taxa meet and interbreed, offer unique opportunities to investigate how climate contributes to reproductive isolation between closely related taxa and how these taxa may respond to climatic changes. Red‐naped (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) and Red‐breasted (Sphyrapicus ruber) sapsuckers (Aves: Picidae) hybridize along a narrow contact zone that stretches from northern California to British Columbia. The hybrid zone between these species has been studied extensively for more than 100 years and represents an excellent system for investigations of the evolution of reproductive isolation. Shifts in the proportions of phenotypes at hybrid localities since 1910 that were inferred using specimens from museum collections were confirmed using species distribution models. We predicted the historical, current, and future distributions of parental and hybrid sapsuckers using Random Forests models to quantify how climate change is affecting hybrid zone movement in the Pacific Northwest. We found observed distribution shifts of parental sapsuckers were likely the result of climate change over the past 100 years, with these shifts predicted to continue for both sapsuckers over the next 80 years. We found Red‐breasted Sapsuckers are predicted to continue to expand, while Red‐naped Sapsuckers are predicted to contract substantially under future climate scenarios. As a result of the predicted changes, the amount of overlap in the distribution of these sapsuckers may decrease. Using hybrid phenotypes, we found the climate niche occupied by the hybrid zone is predicted to disappear under future conditions. The disappearance of this climate niche where the two parental species come into contact and hybridize may lead to a substantial reduction in genetic introgression. Understanding the impacts of global climate change on hybrid zones may help us to better understand how speciation has been shaped by climate in the past, as well as how evolution may respond to climate change in the future.