Modeling daily chlorophyll a dynamics in a German lowland river using artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression approaches

Phytoplankton biomass is an important indicator for water quality, and predicting its dynamics is thus regarded as one of the important issues in the domain of river ecology and management. However, the vast majority of models in river systems have focused mostly on flow prediction and water quality with very few applications to biotic parameters such as chlorophyll a (Chl a). Based on a 1.5-year measured dataset of Chl a and environmental variables, we developed two modeling approaches [artificial neural networks (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR)] to simulate the daily Chl a dynamics in a German lowland river. In general, the developed ANN and MLR models achieved satisfactory accuracy in predicting daily dynamics of Chl a concentrations. Although some peaks and lows were not predicted, the predicted and the observed data matched closely by the MLR model with the coefficient of determination (R ²), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.53, 0.53, and 2.75 for the calibration period and 0.63, 0.62, and 1.94 for the validation period, respectively. Likewise, the results of the ANN model also illustrated a good agreement between observed and predicted data during calibration and validation periods, which was demonstrated by R ², NS, and RMSE values (0.68, 0.68, and 2.27 for the calibration period, 0.55, 0.66 and 2.12 for the validation period, respectively). According to the sensitivity analysis, Chl a concentration was highly sensitive to dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate–nitrogen, autoregressive Chl a, chloride, sulfate, and total phosphorus. We concluded that it was possible to predict the daily Chl a dynamics in the German lowland river based on relevant environmental factors using either ANN or MLR models. The ANN model is well suited for solving non-linear and complex problems, while the MLR model can explicitly explore the coefficients between independent and dependent variables. Further studies are still needed to improve the accuracy of the developed models.     

Ingestion rate of the deposit-feeder Hydrobia ulvae (Gastropoda) on epipelic diatoms: effect of cell size and algal biomass

The effects of cell size of epipelic diatoms and sediment Chl a content (as an index of algal biomass) on the ingestion rate of Hydrobia ulvae adults and juveniles were investigated in experimental microcosms. Results showed that both adults and juveniles ingested small and large diatoms without exhibiting cell size selection behaviour. The functional response of H. ulvae, juveniles (<4 mm) and adults (>4 mm), over a wide range of sediment Chl a content, was characterized by an increase of the ingestion rate according to a power law. Ingestion rate varied from 0.75 to 10 ng Chl a ind⁻¹ h⁻¹ for juveniles and from 1 to 52 ng Chl a ind⁻¹ h⁻¹ for adults, in the range ca. 10-100 μg Chl a (g dry weight sediment)⁻¹. The ingestion rate was about three times higher for adults than for juveniles. Based on these experimental results, we further proposed a mechanistic approach, using an individual based-model, to identify simple feeding mechanisms that might be involved in H. ulvae functional response.     

Dimethylsulfoniopropionate Turnover Is Linked to the Composition and Dynamics of the Bacterioplankton Assemblage during a Microcosm Phytoplankton Bloom

Processing of the phytoplankton-derived organic sulfur compound dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) by bacteria was studied in seawater microcosms in the coastal Gulf of Mexico (Alabama). Modest phytoplankton blooms (peak chlorophyll a [Chl a] concentrations of ~2.5 μg liter⁻¹) were induced in nutrient-enriched microcosms, while phytoplankton biomass remained low in unamended controls (Chl a concentrations of ~0.34 μg liter⁻¹). Particulate DMSP concentrations reached 96 nM in the enriched microcosms but remained approximately 14 nM in the controls. Bacterial biomass production increased in parallel with the increase in particulate DMSP, and nutrient limitation bioassays in the initial water showed that enrichment with DMSP or glucose caused a similar stimulation of bacterial growth. Concomitantly, increased bacterial consumption rate constants of dissolved DMSP (up to 20 day⁻¹) and dimethylsulfide (DMS) (up to 6.5 day⁻¹) were observed. Nevertheless, higher DMSP S assimilation efficiencies and higher contribution of DMSP to bacterial S demand were found in the controls compared to the enriched microcosms. This indicated that marine bacterioplankton may rely more on DMSP as a source of S under oligotrophic conditions than under the senescence phase of phytoplankton blooms. Phylogenetic analysis of the bacterial assemblages in all microcosms showed that the DMSP-rich algal bloom favored the occurrence of various Roseobacter members, flavobacteria (Bacteroidetes phylum), and oligotrophic marine Gammaproteobacteria. Our observations suggest that the composition of the bacterial assemblage and the relative contribution of DMSP to the overall dissolved organic sulfur/organic matter pool control how efficiently bacteria assimilate DMSP S and thereby potentially divert it from DMS production.     

Abundance and composition of the sea-ice meiofauna in off-shore pack ice of the Beaufort Gyre in summer 2002 and 2003

We studied the abundance, biomass and potential ingestion rates of meiofauna in multi-year sea ice (MYI) of the Beaufort Gyre during two icebreaker expeditions in summers 2002 and 2003. Ice cores were taken at a total of ten stations and analyzed for ice temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a (Chl a), and ice meiofauna abundances. In 2002, ice was free of snow and covered with melt ponds. In 2003, snow still covered the ice and a slush-layer was found in the ice-water interface. The vertical distribution of Chl a mostly followed C-shaped curves with elevated concentrations at the bottom and top of the ice. Ice meiofauna was mainly restricted to the bottom 10 cm of the ice and was dominated by turbellarians, harpacticoid copepods and nematodes. The meiofauna abundances (range: 8–3,000 individuals m^–2) and Chl a concentration (range: 0.1–1.7 mg Chl a m^–2) were similar to estimates for MYI of the Transpolar Drift, but about 2 orders of magnitude below coastal fast first-year ice estimates. Calculated potential meiofaunal ingestion rate, based on allometric equations and volume estimates from the literature, was about 1% of published daily algal production rates and was thus unlikely to constrain algal biomass accumulation.     

Triggers of phytoplankton bloom dynamics in permanently eutrophic waters of a South African estuary

The permanently eutrophic Sundays Estuary experiences recurrent harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Heterosigma akashiwo (Raphidophyceae). This study aimed to identify the environmental variables shaping phytoplankton community composition and succession patterns during a typical spring/summer harmful algal bloom (HAB) period. Monitoring of abiotic and phytoplankton variables was undertaken over the period of a month in 2016. Surface water salinity corresponding to mesohaline conditions (9 to 12) was a prerequisite for site selection. During the study, two HABs (>550 µg Chl a l^?1) of H. akashiwo occurred, each lasting for approximately a week in duration. Analyses highlighted nutrient depletion (i.e. nitrate and phosphate concentrations) as the key constraint on bloom duration. When the density of H. akashiwo decreased, the community composition became more diverse with species belonging to Bacillariophyceae and Dinophyceae becoming more abundant; albeit to a lesser degree (<180 µg Chl a l^?1). Dissolved oxygen shifted from super-saturated conditions (>14 mg l^?1) during peak HAB conditions, to instances of bottom water oxygen depletion (2–4 mg l^?1) during the decay phase. These findings highlight the potential severity of transforming a catchment from natural to one that is highly regulated by agricultural practices, while also emphasising the need for management intervention.     

Phytoplankton of an eutrophic tropical reservoir: comparison of biomass estimated from counts with chlorophyll-a biomass from HPLC measurements

The seasonal variation of phytoplankton in an eutrophic tropical reservoir was evaluated through photosynthetic pigments analyzed by HPLC. The contributions of algal classes to total chlorophyll a (TChl-a) were estimated by two procedures. The first one used fixed marker pigment/chlorophyll a ratio available from culture studies of the major species of each class. In the second procedure, a matrix factorization program (CHEMTAX) was used to analyze the pigment data. The pigment data were compared with carbon biomass estimated from microscope analysis. A significant correlation between total chlorophyll a (measured by HPLC) and total biomass was obtained, indicating only a slight variation in the content of algal chlorophyll a when compared to its fluctuations in carbon biomass. The interpretation of pigment data with CHEMTAX resulted in a good agreement with biomass. Although displaying some differences, the general pattern of the phytoplankton community dynamics and the major shifts in composition, biomass and the cyanobacterial bloom were evidenced. In contrast, Chl-a biomass estimates from fixed Xan/Chl-a ratios presented poor agreement with microscope data and did not register the principal changes in phytoplankton. Our results also highlighted the needs of better understanding of the relationships between marker pigments, chlorophyll-a and algal biomass.     

The potential role of anthropogenically derived nitrogen in the growth of harmful algae in California,USA

Cultural eutrophication is frequently invoked as one factor in the global increase in harmful algal blooms, but is difficult to definitively prove due to the myriad of factors influencing coastal phytoplankton bloom development. To assess whether eutrophication could be a factor in the development of harmful algal blooms in California (USA), we review the ecophysiological potential for urea uptake by Pseudo-nitzschia australis (Bacillariophyceae), Heterosigma akashiwo (Raphidophyceae), and Lingulodinium polyedrum (Dinophyceae), all of which have been found at bloom concentrations and/or exhibited noxious effects in recent years in California coastal waters. We include new measurements from a large (Chlorophyll a > 500 mg m⁻³) red tide event dominated by Akashiwo sanguinea (Dinophyceae) in Monterey Bay, CA during September 2006. All of these phytoplankton are capable of using nitrate, ammonium, and urea, although their preference for these nitrogenous substrates varies. Using published data and recent coastal time series measurements conducted in Monterey Bay and San Francisco Bay, CA, we show that urea, presumably from coastal eutrophication, was present in California waters at measurable concentrations during past harmful algal bloom events. Based on these observations, we suggest that urea uptake could potentially sustain these harmful algae, and that urea, which is seldom measured as part of coastal monitoring programs, may be associated with these harmful algal events in California.     

Spatial-temporal variation of Aureococcus anophagefferens blooms in relation to environmental factors in the coastal waters of Qinhuangdao,China

The brown tides occurring in the coastal scallop cultivation area of Qinhuangdao, China, in recent years are caused by Aureococcus anophagefferens and significantly impact the scallop industry and the marine ecosystem in this region. Long-term investigations of phytoplankton and hydrological variables in the Qinhuangdao sea area were conducted in this study to understand the spatial-temporal variations of A. anophagefferens in relation to environmental factors. Samples were collected during twelve cruises from July 2011 to December 2013 and were analyzed for the temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), nutrients and phytoplankton pigments. All diagnostic pigments of A. anophagefferens, such as chlorophyll c₃ (Chl c₃), Chl c₂, 19′-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin (But-fuco), fucoxanthin (Fuco), and diadinoxanthin (Diad), were detected in the surface water by using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The highest concentrations of But-fuco (5.64 μg L⁻¹), Fuco (37.94 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (Chl a, 17.25 μg L⁻¹) occurred in different seasons and sampling sites. The A. anophagefferens bloom (as indicated by But-fuco) usually expanded from the south to the north of the Qinhuangdao sea area, close to scallop-culturing regions. The bloom unusually starts in May, reaches its peak in June and almost disappears in August, with the temperature ranging from ca. 19 °C to 23 °C. The redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that relatively high salinity (>29) and low inorganic nutrients were suitable for the development of the A. anophagefferens bloom. The ratios of diagnostic pigments to Chl a were not constant during different cruises and generally obeyed two different linear relationships, thus indicating the co-occurrence of the blooms of A. anophagefferens and other species, such as Minutocellus polymorphus. In summary, our work reports the long-term variation of A. anophagefferens blooms based on diagnostic pigments and environmental controls, which may provide more insights into the formation mechanisms of the brown tide in this region.     

Longitudinal Changes in the Bacterial Community Composition of the Danube River: a Whole-River Approach

The Danube River is the second longest river in Europe, and its bacterial community composition has never been studied before over its entire length. In this study, bacterial community composition was determined by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of PCR-amplified portions of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene from a total of 98 stations on the Danube River (73 stations) and its major tributaries (25 stations), covering a distance of 2,581 km. Shifts in the bacterial community composition were related to changes in environmental conditions found by comparison with physicochemical parameters (e.g., temperature and concentration of nutrients) and the concentration of chlorophyll a (Chl a). In total, 43 distinct DGGE bands were detected. Sequencing of selected bands revealed that the phylotypes were associated with typical freshwater bacteria. Apparent bacterial richness in the Danube varied between 18 and 32 bands and correlated positively with the concentration of P-PO₄ (r = 0.56) and negatively with Chl a (r = −0.52). An artificial neural network-based model explained 90% of the variation of apparent bacterial richness using the concentrations of N-NO₂ and P-PO₄ and the distance to the Black Sea as input parameters. Between the cities of Budapest and Belgrade, apparent bacterial richness was significantly lower than that of other regions of the river, and Chl a showed a pronounced peak. Generally, the bacterial community composition developed gradually; however, an abrupt and clear shift was detected in the section of the phytoplankton bloom. Large impoundments did not have a discernible effect on the bacterial community of the water column. In conclusion, the riverine bacterial community was largely influenced by intrinsic factors.     

Effects of N and P supply on phytoplankton in Bizerte Lagoon (western Mediterranean)

Enriched bottle experiments were conducted in situ during winter (January and February) and summer (July and August) 2001 to examine the effects of nutrient enrichments (+ N, + P and + NP) on phytoplankton in Bizerte Lagoon, Tunisia. Chlorophyll a (Chl a), ranging from 3.05 μg L⁻¹ in winter to 4.52 μg L⁻¹ in summer, was dominated by the small size-faction (<5 μm) during both seasons. However, the contribution of the large size-fraction (5-200 μm) to Chl a increased from winter (26%) to summer (37%). Similarly, the carbon biomass of the 5-200 μm algae increased during the July/August period that was characterised by the high proliferation of several diatom taxa. In winter, N was the limiting element for phytoplankton growth. Its addition alone (+ N) or with P (+ NP) increased both the <5 μm and 5-200 μm Chl a concentrations. There was no change in the phytoplankton size structure, with the small cells dominating the final algal biomass in all treatments after 5 days. In summer, N and P limited the phytoplankton, but small and large algae exhibited diverse responses to different nutrient enrichments: addition of P increased the Chl a only in the 5-200 μm fraction, the + N treatment enhanced both size classes, and the NP fertilisation mostly stimulated the biomass of large cells. Consequently, the N and P addition in summer was followed by a significant change in the phytoplankton size structure, since both size-fractions contributed equally to the final Chl a biomass. Within the 5-200 μm algal community, various taxa had diverse responses to the nutrient supply during both seasons, leading to a change in the final community composition. The autotrophic flagellates appeared to grow well under N-deficient conditions. In contrast, diatom growth and biomass were mostly stimulated by the N enrichment while dinoflagellates exhibited the highest increase in their growth and biomass with P fertilisation. Our results suggest that the increasing anthropogenic supply of nutrients in the lagoon may influence algal dynamics as well as productivity in different ways depending on the nutrient composition.     

CO2 exchange and thallus nitrogen across 75 contrasting lichen associations from different climate zones

Aiming to investigate whether a carbon-to-nitrogen equilibrium model describes resource allocation in lichens, net photosynthesis (NP), respiration (R), concentrations of nitrogen (N), chlorophyll (Chl), chitin and ergosterol were investigated in 75 different lichen associations collected in Antarctica, Arctic Canada, boreal Sweden, and temperate/subtropical forests of Tenerife, South Africa and Japan. The lichens had various morphologies and represented seven photobiont and 41 mycobiont genera. Chl a, chitin and ergosterol were used as indirect markers of photobiont activity, fungal biomass and fungal respiration, respectively. The lichens were divided into three groups according to photobiont: (1) species with green algae, (2) species with cyanobacteria, and (3) tripartite species with green algal photobionts and cyanobacteria in cephalodia. Across species, thallus N concentration ranged from 1 to 50 mg g^-1 dry wt., NP varied 50-fold, and R 10-fold. In average, green algal lichens had the lowest, cyanobacterial Nostoc lichens the highest and tripartite lichens intermediate N concentrations. All three markers increased with thallus N concentration, and lichens with the highest Chl a and N concentrations had the highest rates of both P and R. Chl a alone accounted for ca. 30% of variation in NP and R across species. On average, the photosynthetic efficiency quotient [K_F=(NP_max+R)/R)] ranged from 2.4 to 8.6, being higher in fruticose green algal lichens than in foliose Nostoc lichens. The former group invested more N in Chl a and this trait increased NP_max while decreasing R. In general terms, the investigated lichens invested N resources such that their maximal C input capacity matched their respiratory C demand around a similar (positive) equilibrium across species. However, it is not clear how this apparent optimisation of resource use is regulated in these symbiotic organisms.     

Positive feedbacks between bottom-up and top-down controls promote the formation and toxicity of ecosystem disruptive algal blooms: A modeling study

Harmful algal blooms that disrupt and degrade ecosystems (ecosystem disruptive algal blooms, EDABs) are occurring with greater frequency and severity with eutrophication and other adverse anthropogenic alterations of coastal systems. EDAB events have been hypothesized to be caused by positive feedback interactions involving differential growth of competing algal species, low grazing mortality rates on EDAB species, and resulting decreases in nutrient inputs from grazer-mediated nutrient cycling as the EDAB event progresses. Here we develop a stoichiometric nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) model to test a conceptual positive feedback mechanism linked to increased cell toxicity and resultant decreases in grazing mortality rates in EDAB species under nutrient limitation of growth rate. As our model EDAB alga, we chose the slow-growing, toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, whose toxin levels have been shown to increase with nutrient (nitrogen) limitation of specific growth rate. This species was competed with two high-nutrient adapted, faster-growing diatoms (Thalassiosira pseudonana and Thalassiosira weissflogii) using recently published data for relationships among nutrient (ammonium) concentration, carbon normalized ammonium uptake rates, cellular nitrogen:carbon (N:C) ratios, and specific growth rate. The model results support the proposed positive feedback mechanism for EDAB formation and toxicity. In all cases the toxic bloom was preceded by one or more pre-blooms of fast-growing diatoms, which drew dissolved nutrients to low growth rate-limiting levels, and stimulated the population growth of zooplankton grazers. Low specific grazing rates on the toxic, nutrient-limited EDAB species then promoted the population growth of this species, which further decreased grazing rates, grazing-linked nutrient recycling, nutrient concentrations, and algal specific growth rates. The nutrient limitation of growth rate further increased toxin concentrations in the EDAB algae, which further decreased grazing-linked nutrient recycling rates and nutrient concentrations, and caused an even greater nutrient limitation of growth rate and even higher toxin levels in the EDAB algae. This chain of interactions represented a positive feedback that resulted in the formation of a high-biomass toxic bloom, with low, nutrient-limited specific growth rates and associated high cellular C:N and toxin:C ratios. Together the elevated C:N and toxin:C ratios in the EDAB algae resulted in very high bloom toxicity. The positive feedbacks and resulting bloom formation and toxicity were increased by long water residence times, which increased the relative importance of grazing-linked nutrient recycling to the overall supply of limiting nutrient (N).     

Hyperdiversity of Genes Encoding Integral Light-Harvesting Proteins in the Dinoflagellate Symbiodinium sp

The superfamily of light-harvesting complex (LHC) proteins is comprised of proteins with diverse functions in light-harvesting and photoprotection. LHC proteins bind chlorophyll (Chl) and carotenoids and include a family of LHCs that bind Chl a and c. Dinophytes (dinoflagellates) are predominantly Chl c binding algal taxa, bind peridinin or fucoxanthin as the primary carotenoid, and can possess a number of LHC subfamilies. Here we report 11 LHC sequences for the chlorophyll a-chlorophyll c ₂-peridinin protein complex (acpPC) subfamily isolated from Symbiodinium sp. C3, an ecologically important peridinin binding dinoflagellate taxa. Phylogenetic analysis of these proteins suggests the acpPC subfamily forms at least three clades within the Chl a/c binding LHC family; Clade 1 clusters with rhodophyte, cryptophyte and peridinin binding dinoflagellate sequences, Clade 2 with peridinin binding dinoflagellate sequences only and Clades 3 with heterokontophytes, fucoxanthin and peridinin binding dinoflagellate sequences.     

东海原甲藻与中肋骨条藻的种间竞争数值模拟

研究探讨了两个零维箱式模型在东海典型赤潮藻东海原甲藻和中肋骨条藻竞争与演替研究中的应用。模型在采用不同接种密度下的单种培养实验数据进行参数校正后,被用来模拟不同N/P条件下单种培养实验以及两藻种共培养竞争实验,并以实验数据对其结果进行了验证。模拟结果表明,在单种培养条件下,模型能够较好地重现两种藻在不同N/P环境中的生长及对营养盐的利用;共培养实验的模拟结果显示,在所有初始细胞密度比例条件下,中肋骨条藻的最终密度均会超过东海原甲藻,且PO4的消耗主要源于中肋骨条藻的利用,与实验结果一致,表明模型能够很好地体现两种藻的竞争结果及对营养盐的竞争关系;由于模型不足以模拟除营养盐竞争以外的藻间相互作用,模拟结果未体现东海原甲藻细胞数迅速衰减这一现象,有待进一步研究。     

Carbon:chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> ratio,assimilation numbers and turnover times of Lake Kinneret phytoplankton

Carbon to chlorophyll a (C:Chl) ratios, assimilation numbers (A.N.) and turnover times of natural populations of individual species and taxonomic groups were extracted from a long-term database of phytoplankton wet-weight biomass, chlorophyll a concentrations, and primary production in Lake Kinneret, Israel. From a database spanning more than a decade, we selected data for samples dominated by a single species or taxonomic group. The overall average of C:Chl was highest for cyanophytes and lowest for diatoms, while chlorophytes and dinoflagellates showed intermediate values. When converting chlorophyll a to algal cellular carbon this variability should be taken into account. The variability in C:Chl within each phylum and species (when data were available) was high and the variability at any particular sampling date tended to be greater than the temporal variability. The average chlorophyll a-normalized rate of photosynthetic activity of cyanophytes was higher and that of the dinoflagellates lower than that of other phyla. Turnover time of phytoplankton, calculated using primary productivity data at the depth of maximal photosynthetic rate, was longest in dinoflagellates and shortest in cyanophytes, with diatoms and chlorophytes showing intermediate values. The more extreme C:Chl and turnover times of dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria in comparison with chlorophytes and diatoms should be taken into consideration when employed in ecological modeling.     

Temporal and spatial variability of chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> concentration in Lake Taihu using MODIS time-series data

In order to predict the distribution of chlorophyll a synoptically in Lake Taihu from 2006 to 2008, a common empirical algorithm was developed to relate time series chlorophyll a concentrations in the lake to reflectance derived as a function of band 2 MODIS data (r ² = 0.907, n = 145) using time series from 2005. The empirical model was further validated with chlorophyll a data from a 2008 to 2009 dataset, with RMSE < 7.48 μg l⁻¹ and r ² = 0.978. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the surface chlorophyll a concentration from 2006 to 2008 was then examined using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results revealed that the first four modes were significant, explaining 54.0% of the total chlorophyll a variance, and indicated that during the summer, algal blooms always occur in the northern bays, Meiliang Bay and Gonghu Bay, while they occur along the southwestern lakeshore during early summer, fall, and even early winter. The inter-annual variance analysis showed that the duration of algal blooms was from April to December of 2007, which was different from the bloom periods in 2006 and 2008. The results of EOF analysis show its potential for long-term integrated lake monitoring, not only in Lake Taihu but also in other large lakes threatened by accelerating eutrophication.     

Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-west European continental shelf

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish (Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.     

Determination of the Optimal Training Principle and Input Variables in Artificial Neural Network Model for the Biweekly Chlorophyll-a Prediction: A Case Study of the Yuqiao Reservoir,China

Predicting the levels of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a vital component of water quality management, which ensures that urban drinking water is safe from harmful algal blooms. This study developed a model to predict Chl-a levels in the Yuqiao Reservoir (Tianjin, China) biweekly using water quality and meteorological data from 1999-2012. First, six artificial neural networks (ANNs) and two non-ANN methods (principal component analysis and the support vector regression model) were compared to determine the appropriate training principle. Subsequently, three predictors with different input variables were developed to examine the feasibility of incorporating meteorological factors into Chl-a prediction, which usually only uses water quality data. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to examine how the Chl-a predictor reacts to changes in input variables. The results were as follows: first, ANN is a powerful predictive alternative to the traditional modeling techniques used for Chl-a prediction. The back program (BP) model yields slightly better results than all other ANNs, with the normalized mean square error (NMSE), the correlation coefficient (Corr), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) at 0.003 mg/l, 0.880 and 0.754, respectively, in the testing period. Second, the incorporation of meteorological data greatly improved Chl-a prediction compared to models solely using water quality factors or meteorological data; the correlation coefficient increased from 0.574-0.686 to 0.880 when meteorological data were included. Finally, the Chl-a predictor is more sensitive to air pressure and pH compared to other water quality and meteorological variables.     

Hyperspectral remote sensing of cyanobacterial pigments as indicators of the iron nutritional status of cyanobacteria-dominant algal blooms in eutrophic lakes

Iron can stimulate cyanobacterial growth. Determining iron availability to cyanobacteria is therefore essential for timely warnings of bloom development. The objectives of this study were to determine the key spectral parameters indicating cellular iron status in cyanobacteria and to establish reliable equations for estimating iron nutrition in cyanobacterial cells. Cells, pigments, cellular iron, and spectra of cyanobacteria were measured monthly at 17 sites in Meiliang Bay of Taihu Lake during the summer period of cyanobacterial blooms from 2010 to 2013. Pronounced spatial and temporal variability of cellular iron of cyanobacteria was observed. The previously developed structure-insensitive pigment index (SIPI) and plant senescence reflectance index (PSRI) and the newly proposed chlorophyll a/phycocyanin index (R_Chl/PC) exhibited strong relationships with cyanobacterial cellular iron content. The relationships between the cellular iron concentration and SIPI, PSRI and R_Chl/PC could be expressed as linear, quadratic and cubic functions, respectively. The equations derived herein were tested using independent data from 2008 to 2009, obtained from 31 sites within Taihu Lake. For the three models that included SIPI, PSRI and R_Chl/PC as predictors, the coefficients of determination (R²) between the measured and estimated cellular iron concentration were 0.549, 0.584 and 0.909, and the mean relative errors (RE) were 17.1%, 18.1% and 8.0%, respectively. The overall results indicated that use of the three key hyperspectral parameters, SIPI, PSRI and R_Chl/PC, could be used for non-destructive and real-time monitoring of the iron nutritional status of cyanobacteria-dominant algal blooms in eutrophic lakes.     

Bacterial Community Structure Associated with a Dimethylsulfoniopropionate-Producing North Atlantic Algal Bloom

The bacteria associated with oceanic algal blooms are acknowledged to play important roles in carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycling, yet little information is available on their identities or phylogenetic affiliations. Three culture-independent methods were used to characterize bacteria from a dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP)-producing algal bloom in the North Atlantic. Group-specific 16S rRNA-targeted oligonucleotides, 16S ribosomal DNA (rDNA) clone libraries, and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis all indicated that the marine Roseobacter lineage was numerically important in the heterotrophic bacterial community, averaging >20% of the 16S rDNA sampled. Two other groups of heterotrophic bacteria, the SAR86 and SAR11 clades, were also shown by the three 16S rRNA-based methods to be abundant in the bloom community. In surface waters, the Roseobacter, SAR86, and SAR11 lineages together accounted for over 50% of the bacterial rDNA and showed little spatial variability in abundance despite variations in the dominant algal species. Depth profiles indicated that Roseobacter phylotype abundance decreased with depth and was positively correlated with chlorophyll a, DMSP, and total organic sulfur (dimethyl sulfide plus DMSP plus dimethyl sulfoxide) concentrations. Based on these data and previous physiological studies of cultured Roseobacter strains, we hypothesize that this lineage plays a role in cycling organic sulfur compounds produced within the bloom. Three other abundant bacterial phylotypes (representing a cyanobacterium and two members of the α Proteobacteria) were primarily associated with chlorophyll-rich surface waters of the bloom (0 to 50 m), while two others (representing Cytophagales and δ Proteobacteria) were primarily found in deeper waters (200 to 500 m).