Health,income, and the preston curve: A long view

Well-being is increasingly viewed as a multidimensional phenomenon, of which income is only one facet. In this paper I focus on another one, health, and look at its synthetic measure, life expectancy at birth, and its relationship with per capita income. International trends of life expectancy and per capita GDP differed during the past 150 years. Life expectancy gains depended on economic growth but also on the advancement in medical knowledge. The pace and breadth of the health transitions drove life expectancy aggregate tendencies and distribution. The new results confirm the relationship between life expectancy and per capita income and its outward shift over time as put forward by Samuel Preston. However, the association between nonlinearly transformed life expectancy and the log of per capita income does not flatten out over time, but becomes convex suggesting more than proportional increases in life expectancy at higher per capita income levels.     

The aggregate income losses from childhood stunting and the returns to a nutrition intervention aimed at reducing stunting

We undertake two calculations, one for all developing countries, the other for 34 developing countries that together account for 90% of the world’s stunted children. The first asks how much lower a country’s per capita income is today as a result of having a fraction of its workforce been stunted in childhood. We use a development accounting framework, relying on micro-econometric estimates of the effects of childhood stunting on adult wages through their effects on years of schooling, cognitive skills, and height, parsing out the relative contribution of each set of returns to avoid double counting. We estimate that, on average, the per capita income penalty from stunting is between 5–7%, depending on the assumption. In our second calculation we estimate the economic value and the costs associates with scaling up a package of nutrition interventions using the same methodology and set of assumptions used in the first calculation. We take a package of 10 nutrition interventions that has data on both effects and costs, and we estimate the rate-of-return to gradually introducing this program over a period of 10 years in 34 countries that together account for 90% of the world’s stunted children. We estimate a rate-of-return of 12%, and a benefit-cost ratio of 5:1-6:1.     

Urbanization in Southeast Asia: Assessing Policy Process and Progress toward Sustainability

In investigating the relationship between urbanization and sustainability in cities of developing countries, many researchers have looked to rising incomes as a driver for environmental improvement. This article challenges the transition and evolutionary models of urban environmental development that suggest that as cities grow in per capita income, their local environmental problems will diminish. The transition model is outcomes-based, and a competing model based on greater attention to participation in setting sustainability goals and assessing the progress toward those goals is presented.
Consensus on appropriate sustainability indicators is a key element, albeit a challenging one, in the task of pursuing urban sustainability. This is due to the contested nature of the concept of sustainability and also the fact that much of the work done on sustainability has been conducted among countries or on a national scale. A brief review of health, urban transport, air quality, and sewerage indicators suggests that cities do not necessarily see more progress as the per capita income increases. Low-income cities in Southeast Asia that are performing well are likely to see a deterioration in standards with rapid economic and population growth.     

世界主要国家耕地动态变化及其影响因素

在世界人口持续攀升、全球耕地面积不断减少的背景下,探讨世界主要国家耕地变化其影响因素,对于分析预测未来世界耕地变化趋势、研究世界粮食安全具有积极意义。选择2050年人口过亿的17个国家和耕地面积排名前10的国家为研究对象,在分析1961—2007年耕地总量变化、人均耕地变化的基础上,探讨了耕地变化影响因素。研究结果表明,从20世纪60年代到2007年间的不同时期内,有越来越多的国家表现出耕地减少趋势,而人均耕地面积减少的国家个数高达90%以上。满足人口消费需求、城市化与经济发展是大多数国家耕地总量变化的主要动力;而人口快速增长、城市化则是导致许多国家人均耕地显著减少的重要原因。     

Early life environment and adult height: The case of Chile

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between adult height and early-life disease environment, proxied by the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the first year of life, using cohort-region level data for Chile for 1960–1989. IMRs show a remarkable reduction of 100 points per thousand over this thirty-year period, declining from 119.4 to 21.0 per thousand. We also document a 0.96 cm increase in height per decade.We find that the drop in IMRs observed among our cohorts explains almost all of the long-term trend in rising adult heights, and that per capita GDP does not appear to have any predictive power in this context. Results are robust in a variety of specifications, which include area and cohort dummies, an adjustment for internal migration, and urbanization rates. Our results point to the long-term effect of a public health policy.     

Estimating final height from parental heights and sex in Taiwanese

We have developed a simple function for accurately estimating target height for use in evaluating growth and growth-promoting therapies in Taiwanese children. The heights of parents and their adult offspring born in the 1970s were determined in 1229 healthy families who accompanied another family member to our pediatric clinic. We directly measured the heights of the population-based cohort of adult offspring. The heights of their parents were based on self-report. Both the parents and their offspring were healthy. The increases in height between the two generations were 1.49-3.19 cm for boys and 2.03-2.61 cm for girls. These increases lie between those reported for Chinese children in Hong Kong (4.2-4.8 cm) and children in Sweden (0.7-1.0 cm). Final height was underestimated using the corrected midparental height method and was overestimated using the final parental height model developed from Swedish data. We developed a new linear model by fitting our data: boy height = 79.3 + 0.56 (midparental height); girl height = 35.2 + 0.76 (midparental height). The intercept and slope of the model are similar to those reported for Swedish girls but not to those reported for Swedish boys. Use of the new equations derived from our data may increase the accuracy of estimates of target height in Taiwanese children. The intermediate position of our fairly representative Taiwanese sample in both final height and generational increases in final height may reflect an intermediate stage between the Swedes and Hong Kong Chinese in the secular trend of heights.     

Economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss

Human activity is causing high rates of biodiversity loss. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which socioeconomic factors exacerbate or ameliorate our impacts on biological diversity. One such factor, economic inequality, has been shown to affect public health, and has been linked to environmental problems in general. We tested how strongly economic inequality is related to biodiversity loss in particular. We found that among countries, and among US states, the number of species that are threatened or declining increases substantially with the Gini ratio of income inequality. At both levels of analysis, the connection between income inequality and biodiversity loss persists after controlling for biophysical conditions, human population size, and per capita GDP or income. Future research should explore potential mechanisms behind this equality-biodiversity relationship. Our results suggest that economic reforms would go hand in hand with, if not serving as a prerequisite for, effective conservation.     

A Reassessment of the Relationship between GDP and Life Satisfaction

The scientific debate on the relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and self reported indices of life satisfaction is still open. In a well-known finding, Easterlin reported no significant relationship between happiness and aggregate income in time-series analysis. However, life satisfaction appears to be strictly monotonically increasing with income when one studies this relation at a point in time across nations. Here, we analyze the relation between per capita GDP and life satisfaction without imposing a functional form and eliminating potentially confounding country-specific factors. We show that this relation clearly increases in country with a per capita GDP below 15,000 USD (2005 in Purchasing Power Parity), then it flattens for richer countries. The probability of reporting the highest level of life satisfaction is more than 12% lower in the poor countries with a per capita GDP below 5,600 USD than in the counties with a per capita GDP of about 15,000 USD. In countries with an income above 17,000 USD the probability of reporting the highest level of life satisfaction changes within a range of 2% maximum. Interestingly enough, life satisfaction seems to peak at around 30,000 USD and then slightly but significantly decline among the richest countries. These results suggest an explanation of the Easterlin paradox: life satisfaction increases with GDP in poor country, but this relation is approximately flat in richer countries. We explain this relation with aspiration levels. We assume that a gap between aspiration and realized income is negatively perceived; and aspirations to higher income increase with income. These facts together have a negative effect on life satisfaction, opposite to the positive direct effect of the income. The net effect is ambiguous. We predict a higher negative effect in individuals with higher sensitivity to losses (measured by their neuroticism score) and provide econometric support of this explanation.     

Trends in physical stature across socioeconomic groups of Chilean boys, 1880–1997

This paper studies the trends in height-by-age across socioeconomic groups of Chilean boys aged 5–18 born between 1880 and 1997, by performing a meta-analysis of 38 studies reporting height-by-age published since 1898. We estimate the trends using quantile regressions and by analyzing detailed height data from five selected studies. Both methods yield an average decennial increase in height of 1–1.1 cm, and 0.9 and 1.2–1.3 cm for boys of upper and lower socioeconomic status (SES), respectively. SES differences in heights of 9–11 cm are observed up to the late 1940s. However, boys born after the 1930s exhibit substantial convergence in height between socioeconomic groups, driven by an increase in height of middle and lower SES boys of 1.5 and 1.4–2 cm per decade, respectively. As a result, SES differences in height decreased to 5 cm in 1990s. Since these changes occurred in a context of moderate economic growth and persistent income inequality, we argue that our findings are associated with the emergence and expansion of social policies in Chile since the 1940s, which delivered steady improvements in health, nutrition and living conditions.     

Association between healthy life expectancy at birth and consanguineous marriages in 63 countries

In order to investigate the association between mean inbreeding coefficient (α) and healthy life expectancy at birth (HALE; years) the present ecological study on 63 countries was done. Statistical analysis showed that HALE negatively and positively correlated with log(10)α and log(10)GNI per capita, respectively (p<0.001). It should be noted that log(10)α and log(10)GNI per capita were significantly correlated with each other (p<0.001). After controlling for log(10)GNI per capita, significant negative correlations between log(10)α and HALE were observed. The countries were stratified according to their GNI per capita into low- and high-income countries. In countries with high income, after controlling for log(10)GNI per capita, the correlation between HALE at birth and log(10)α was significant (for males r=-0.399, df=32, p=0.001; for females r=-0.683, df=32, p<0.001). In high-income Asian and African countries, where consanguineous marriage is common, after controlling for log(10)GNI per capita, the correlation between HALE at birth and log(10)α was significant (for males r=-0.819, df=8, p=0.004; for females r=-0.936, df=8, p<0.001). It seems that consanguinity influences HALE independent of country income.     

Economic growth and obesity: An interesting relationship with world-wide implications

The prosperity of a country, commonly measured in terms of its annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has different relationships with population levels of body weight and happiness, as well as environmental impacts such as carbon emissions. The aim of this study was to examine these relationships and to try to find a level of GDP, which provides for sustainable economic activity, optimal happiness and healthy levels of mean body mass index (BMI). Spline regression analyses were conducted using national indices from 175 countries: GDP, adult BMI, mean happiness scores, and carbon footprint per capita for the year 2007. Results showed that GDP was positively related to BMI and happiness up to ∼$US3000 and ∼$5000 per capita respectively, with no significant relationships beyond these levels. GDP was also positively related to CO₂ emissions with a recognised sustainable carbon footprint of less than 5 tonnes per capita occurring at a GDP of <$US15,000. These findings show that a GDP between $US5 and $15,000 is associated with greater population happiness and environmental stability. A mean BMI of 21-23 kg/m², which minimises the prevalence of underweight and overweight in the population then helps to define an ideal position in relation to growth, which few countries appear to have obtained. Within a group of wealthy countries (GDP > $US30,000), those with lower income inequalities and more regulated (less liberal) market systems had lower mean BMIs.     

Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature?

Feeding a rapidly expanding human population will require a large increase in the supply of agricultural products during the coming decades. This may lead to the transformation of many landscapes from natural vegetation cover to agricultural land use, unless increases in crop yields reduce the need for new farmland. Here, we assess the evidence that past increases in agricultural yield have spared land for wild nature. We investigated the relationship between the change in the combined energy yield of the 23 most energetically important food crops over the period 1979–1999 and the change in per capita cropland area for 124 countries over the same period. Per capita area of the 23 staple crops tended to decrease in developing countries where large yield increases occurred. However, this was counteracted by a tendency for the area used to grow crops other than staples to increase in the countries where staple crop yields increased. There remained a weak tendency in developing countries for the per capita area of all cropland to decline as staple crop yield increased, a pattern that was most evident in developing countries with the highest per capita food supplies. In developed countries, there was no evidence that higher staple crop yields were associated with decreases in per capita cropland area. This may be because high agricultural subsidies in developed countries override any land-sparing pattern that might otherwise occur. Declines in the area of natural forest were smaller in countries where the yield of staple crops increased most, when the negative effects of human population increases on forest area were controlled for. Our results show that land-sparing is a weak process that occurs under a limited set of circumstances, but that it can have positive outcomes for the conservation of wild nature.     

Growth in Afro-Caribbean slave populations

Height data for African slave populations in Trinidad, Guyana and other British Caribbean colonies in the early nineteenth century are analyzed and compared with Cuban and United States slave populations. Slaves born in Trinidad and Cuba achieved final heights greater than their African-born parents, but those born in Guyana were shorter. Afro-Caribbean slaves living in sugar-producing colonies showed inferior growth compared to those living in colonies based on less arduous forms of economic activity, such as the Bahamas and Bermuda. The latter groups achieved heights similar to those of the United States slaves. Menarche occurred in the United States about 2 years earlier than in Trinidad. These differences in growth cannot be explained adequately by genetic variations in growth potential or by heterosis, but were a result of differences in nutrition, infection and work regime. Superior growth was associated with high rates of natural increase, whereas apparent stature reduction occurred in slave populations subject to the heaviest mortality. Modern Afro-Caribbean adult populations are about 10 cm taller than their genitor slave populations.     

Will income inequality affect environmental quality? Analysis based on China's provincial panel data

During the last two decades of China's rapid economic growth, the gap in citizens’ income has widened and environmental quality has deteriorated. Using Gini coefficients as the measure of income inequality, this study investigated the impacts of income inequality on carbon emissions per capita in China. To control for potential endogeneity and allow for dynamics, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique is utilized. Moreover, the influential factors that can affect carbon emissions per capita in China have been examined. The empirical results indicate that carbon emissions per capita increase as the income gap expands for nationwide and in the eastern and non-eastern regions of China. Among all factors that may affect carbon emissions per capita, a “U” shaped relationship exists between per capita income and per capita carbon emissions, and increasing the value-added share of secondary industry in the GDP would significantly increase carbon emissions per capita.     

Inequality in the American South: evidence from the nineteenth century missouri state prison

The use of height data to measure living standards is now a well-established method in economic history. Moreover, a number of core findings in the literature are widely agreed upon. There are still some populations, places and times, however, for which anthropometric evidence remains thin. One example is 19th century African-Americans in US border-states. This paper introduces a new data set from the Missouri state prison to track the heights of comparable black and white men born between 1820 and 1904. Modern blacks and whites come to comparable terminal statures when brought to maturity under optimal conditions; however, whites were persistently taller than blacks in the Missouri prison sample by two centimetres. Throughout the 19th century, black and white adult statures remained approximately constant, while black youth stature increased during the antebellum period.     

The biological standard of living in Taiwan under Japanese occupation

This paper presents evidence on the biological standard of living in Taiwan from 1842 to 1931 using Taiwanese height and weight data collected by the Japanese authorities from 1921 to 1931. This study shows that in the late Ch'ing adult heights were not increasing over time, while the adult heights of those born after the Japanese takeover did begin to increase rapidly. Evidence from children's heights confirms that this growth in height continued through the 1920s. The body mass index of Taiwanese, however, did not increase in the 1920s. By most measures, the biological standard of living was better in the north of the island. Comparison with modern data shows that heights have continued to increase.     

Homemakers and heights. Intra-household resource allocation and male stature in the Netherlands, 1860–1930

In this article we test the hypothesis that the secular increase in heights in the course of the second half of the nineteenth century was associated with the rise of the breadwinner-homemaker household. In these ‘modern’ households, women raised the living standards (quality and quantity of food, hygiene and care) for all members, especially the children. We model the assumed contributions to the family budget by age and gender of household members, and find that a strong imbalance between consumers and producers in the household put severe strains on effective resource allocation, leading to lower net nutrition and lower young adult heights. We suggest a carefully calibrated consumer/producer ratio as an indicator to capture these effects. The ratio is not meant to replace others, and we show that sibling rank order as well as gender preferences also played a role in intra-household resource allocation. For our research, we have used a database with reconstructed life histories (including co-residence) of 3003 Dutch army recruits. Our results indicate that the consumer/producer ratio as experienced by recruits in their early life indeed had a strong impact (-1,8 cm) on their heights. However, this effect differed by social class, which can be explained by differences in acceptance of the income pooling model.     

Testing Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Asian countries

The aim of this study is to test the Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis for 14 Asian countries spanning the period 1990–2011. We focused on how both income and policies in these countries affect the income–emissions (environment) relationship. The GMM methodology using panel data is employed in a multivariate framework to test the EKC hypothesis. The multivariate framework includes: CO₂ emissions, GDP per capita, population density, land, industry shares in GDP, and four indicators that measure the quality of institutions. In terms of the presence of an inverted U-shape association between emissions and income per capita, the estimates have the expected signs and are statistically significant, yielding empirical support to the presence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis.     

Towards an anthropometric history of latin America in the second half of the twentieth century

We examine the evolution of adult female heights in twelve Latin American countries during the second half of the twentieth century based on demographic health surveys and related surveys compiled from national and international organizations. Only countries with more than one survey were included, allowing us to cross-examine surveys and correct for biases. We first show that average height varies significantly according to location, from 148.3 cm in Guatemala to 158.8 cm in Haiti. The evolution of heights over these decades behaves like indicators of human development, showing a steady increase of 2.6 cm from the 1950s to the 1990s. Such gains compare favorably to other developing regions of the world, but not so much with recently developed countries. Height gains were not evenly distributed in the region, however. Countries that achieved higher levels of income, such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, gained on average 0.9 cm per decade, while countries with shrinking economies, such as Haiti and Guatemala, only gained 0.25 cm per decade.