On the measurement of health and its effect on the measurement of health inequality

We examine the extent to which self-reported health measures suffer from income-related reporting heterogeneity and then characterize how this reporting heterogeneity affects the estimation of income-related health inequality. We run a comprehensive set of tests of reporting heterogeneity using several self-reported health measures and several clinical measures of health from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Surveys. We propose the use of a multidimensional measure using clinical indicators of health in the context of measuring income-related health inequality, and we examine the extent of income-related health inequality, as measured by the concentration index, using both self-reported measures of health and the multidimensional clinical measure. Our results confirm the existence of significant, positive, income-related reporting heterogeneity and also suggest that higher income individuals react more strongly to a change in clinical health measures. Using self-assessed health suggests that income-related health inequality is about three times larger than when using more objective, self-reported health measures and ten times larger than when using the multidimensional clinical measure of health.     

Is Fisher's model necessary for the theory of population improvement?

Summary It is shown here that genetic advance in one cycle of recurrent selection can be formulated directly in terms of covariances between relatives by application of the general statistical principle of linear prediction. For practical use of such formulae it is necessary to estimate the corresponding covariance between relatives from the mating design used. With General Combining Ability selection such estimation is direct. For other types of selection, it is necessary to derive associated covariances from other types of covariances but it is not necessary to use classical results of covariances between relatives in terms of genetic effects. Indeed, covariances can be derived without factorial decomposition of the genetic effects at one locus, i.e., without the concept of additivity and dominance. This approach allows a simple derivation of the genetic advance after n cycles of selection, followed by m generations of intercrossing, with a minimum of assumptions.     

Regime changes in ecological systems: an information theory approach

We present our efforts at developing an ecological system index using information theory. Specifically, we derive an expression for Fisher Information based on sampling of the system trajectory as it evolves in the space defined by the state variables of the system, i.e. its state space. The Fisher Information index, as we have derived it, is a measure of system order, and captures the characteristic variation in speed and acceleration along the system's periodic steady-state trajectories. When calculated repeatedly over the system period, this index tracks steady states and transient behavior. We believe that such an index could be useful in detecting system 'flips' associated with a regime change, i.e. determining when systems are in a transient between one steady state and another. We illustrate the concepts using model ecosystems.     

Surrogate marker evaluation from an information theory perspective

The last 20 years have seen lots of work in the area of surrogate marker validation, partly devoted to frame the evaluation in a multitrial framework, leading to definitions in terms of the quality of trial- and individual-level association between a potential surrogate and a true endpoint (Buyse et al., 2000, Biostatistics 1, 49-67). A drawback is that different settings have led to different measures at the individual level. Here, we use information theory to create a unified framework, leading to a definition of surrogacy with an intuitive interpretation, offering interpretational advantages, and applicable in a wide range of situations. Our method provides a better insight into the chances of finding a good surrogate endpoint in a given situation. We further show that some of the previous proposals follow as special cases of our method. We illustrate our methodology using data from a clinical study in psychiatry.     

Using information theory to assess the communicative capacity of circulating microRNA

The discovery of extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) and their transport modalities (i.e., microparticles, exosomes, proteins and lipoproteins) has sparked theories regarding their role in intercellular communication. Here, we assessed the information transfer capacity of different miRNA transport modalities in human serum by utilizing basic principles of information theory. Zipf Statistics were calculated for each of the miRNA transport modalities identified in human serum. Our analyses revealed that miRNA-mediated information transfer is redundant, as evidenced by negative Zipf’s Statistics with magnitudes greater than one. In healthy subjects, the potential communicative capacity of miRNA in complex with circulating proteins was significantly lower than that of miRNA encapsulated in circulating microparticles and exosomes. Moreover, the presence of coronary heart disease significantly lowered the communicative capacity of all circulating miRNA transport modalities. To assess the internal organization of circulating miRNA signals, Shannon’s zero- and first-order entropies were calculated. Microparticles (MPs) exhibited the lowest Shannon entropic slope, indicating a relatively high capacity for information transfer. Furthermore, compared to the other miRNA transport modalities, MPs appeared to be the most efficient at transferring miRNA to cultured endothelial cells. Taken together, these findings suggest that although all transport modalities have the capacity for miRNA-based information transfer, MPs may be the simplest and most robust way to achieve miRNA-based signal transduction in sera. This study presents a novel method for analyzing the quantitative capacity of miRNA-mediated information transfer while providing insight into the communicative characteristics of distinct circulating miRNA transport modalities.     

A registry for exposure and population health in the Altai region affected by fallout from the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site

A registry of the rural population in the Altai region exposed to fallout from nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site (STS) was established more than four decades after the first Soviet nuclear explosion on August 29, 1949. Information about individuals living in an exposed and a control area was collected using all available local sources, such as kolkhoz documentation, school registries, medical treatment records and interviews with residents. As a result, a database comprising an exposed group of 39 179 individuals from 53 Altai region villages, 6769 external and 3303 internal controls was compiled. For several settlements, effective dose estimates reached the level of 1.5 Sv, while the average effective dose estimate in the exposed group was 340 mSv. Dosimetric data, vital status information and health records gathered at rayon and village medical facilities are held in the registry. Cause-of-death information for deceased residents is obtained from death registration forms archived at the Altai region vital statistics office. At present, a follow-up of approximately 40% of the population exposed in 1949 has been done. More will be added by searching for migrants to the larger towns of the Altai region, i.e. Barnaul, Rubtsovsk and Biisk. In order to assess the influence of radiation exposure, analytical studies with a case-control design for stomach and lung cancer are currently being prepared. The number of known cases is sufficient to detect an odds ratio of 1.5 at the 95% confidence level. Epidemiological studies in populations affected by fallout from STS may be equally important to the atomic bomb survivors’ study for the direct quantification of radiation effects. The range of exposure rates experienced will extend the acute high-dose-rate findings from Hiroshima/Nagasaki towards acute and protracted lower exposures, which are more relevant for radiation protection issues. Received: 3 March 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 8 June 1999     

Education based on the health belief model to improve the level of physical activity

[Purpose] This study aimed to investigate the effect of education based on the health belief model on the physical activity of the staff of the University of Medical Sciences.[Methods] This semi-experimental study was conducted on 130 university staff aged 25-50 years from the Hamadan University of Medical Sciences. Inclusion criteria were having at least 1 year of work experience, lack of acute and chronic physical and mental illnesses, and not using drugs that affect physical activity. The samples were randomly divided into two groups. The experimental group received three training sessions based on the health belief model. Before and 2 months after training, the control and experimental groups were evaluated via the following questionnaires: (1) demographic information questionnaire, (2) Health Belief Model Questionnaire, and (3) International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Finally, data were analyzed statistically.[Results] The training process resulted in a significant increase in the mean scores of the health belief model constructs in the experimental group, but changes in the control group were not significant. Self-efficacy was the strongest predictor of physical activity.[Conclusion] The health belief model is a useful model for improving individuals'' understanding of the benefits of physical activity.     

基于近海健康评价现有体系的我国普适海洋健康评价“双核”新框架的构建

海洋生态环境保持健康状态是人类可持续开发利用海洋资源环境的基础,而近海海洋生态环境的健康状况综合评价可为海洋生态环境良性发展以及社会经济决策提供科学依据。首先对国际上3种代表性的海洋环境健康综合评价方法的应用特点进行了对比分析,并归纳了我国海洋生态环境健康评价的状况,在此基础上,以指标体系法重构了一个双核结构的综合评价框架,其中内核评价以海洋生态系统的自身状态为主,外核评价则主要反映海洋之于人类经济社会的贡献,以期能够科学、准确、全面的评价我国近海海洋环境健康状况。     

High frequency body mass measurement,feedback, and health behaviors

We analyze weight and fat percentage measurements of respondents in an online general population panel in the Netherlands, collected using wireless scales, with an average frequency of 1.6 measurements per week. First, we document the existence of a weekly cycle; body mass is lowest on Fridays and highest on Mondays, showing significant (p < 0.01) differences of, on average, 0.2 kilogram in weight, 0.06 in BMI value, and 0.03 in fat percentage. Second, we find that in the general population fat-based measures of obesity point at a three times larger prevalence of obesity (53%) than BMI-based measures (17%). Third, we find that feedback that includes a recommended weight range increases the temporal variation in individual body mass by almost ten percent (sd for weight increases from 1.13 to 1.22; sd for BMI increases from 0.37 to 0.41; sd for fat percentage increases from 0.55 to 0.61.     

A systems-theoretical framework for health and disease: inflammation and preconditioning from an abstract modeling point of view

Modern advances in molecular biology have produced enormous amounts of data characterizing physiological and disease states in cells and organisms. While bioinformatics has facilitated the organizing and mining of these data, it is the task of systems biology to merge the available information into dynamic, explanatory and predictive models. This article takes a step into this direction. It proposes a conceptual approach toward formalizing health and disease and illustrates it in the context of inflammation and preconditioning. Instead of defining health and disease states, the emphasis is on simplexes in a high-dimensional biomarker space. These simplexes are bounded by physiological constraints and permit the quantitative characterization of personalized health trajectories, health risk profiles that change with age, and the efficacy of different treatment options. The article mainly focuses on concepts but also briefly describes how the proposed concepts might be formulated rigorously within a mathematical framework.     

间作对桑树和谷子生长和光合日变化的影响

以桑树和谷子为研究材料,探讨了大田条件下,桑树-谷子间作对桑树和谷子的干物质生产、土地利用率和光合日变化的影响.结果表明：桑树-谷子间作条件下,间作桑树的株高、地茎、根长和枝条数分别比单作桑树增加了6.0%、13.7%、6.8%和14.8%,且间作桑树的产叶量比单作桑树增加了31.3%;间作谷子与单作比较,其株高和根长的变化不大.桑树-谷子间作增加了土地当量比,提高了土地利用率.单作、间作桑树和谷子叶片在12:00时均表现出明显的光合午休现象,且单作桑树的光合午休现象比间作桑树严重.桑树-谷子间作提高了中午时桑树叶片气孔导度和水分利用率,增加了桑树光合碳同化能力,抑制了桑树叶片实际光化学效率、电子传递速率和最大光化学效率的下降,从而减缓了桑树的“光合午休”现象.桑树 谷子间作能明显提高桑树叶片的光合生产能力.     

基于集合种群理论框架的榕树-榕小蜂互惠系统动力学模型

互惠共生指双方物种都能通过对方增加适合度的种间关系。榕树与榕小蜂的传粉关系是自然界中典型的互惠共生系统,这种互惠关系发生在榕果中,也就是榕果是种间作用的场所,榕小蜂在其中传粉和产卵。由此,可以把榕果看作榕小蜂的生境斑块,利用集合种群理论框架构建榕树与榕小蜂互惠关系的动力学模型,研究这个互惠系统的稳定性和续存条件。由于这里的生境斑块(榕果)的动态变化性(榕果产生和掉落),模型不同于传统的生境斑块固定不变的集合种群模型,增加了描述生境动态的维度。模型表明:(1)榕果产生率足够大(大于一个阈值)是榕树与榕小蜂互惠系统能够续存的必要条件;(2)榕树和榕小蜂互惠系统存在双稳态现象(Allee效应),这个互惠系统续存需要种群大小超过一个阈值,换言之,种群大小低于这个阈值时,系统必然灭绝;(3)榕果产生率增加使榕小蜂种群增加,但不会影响未被占据的榕果数量。我们的模型不但可用来研究榕树与榕小蜂互惠系统的动力学性质,而且也是集合种群理论斑块动态化的发展。     

基于信息网络模型的生态风险评价

人类开发活动造成剧烈的生态系统自然条件变化,生态风险评价可以对受到人为干扰下生态系统(包括物种和群落等)的潜在影响进行模拟和量化。通过对信息流量的概念和网络控制分析,综合考虑生态系统组分间的直接和间接作用,提出一种能实现全局风险模拟的生态网络模型,即信息网络模型。在该模型基础上,建立了面向整体生态系统的生态风险评价框架,同时实现兼容多胁迫因子统一模拟和多风险受体间的风险追踪。以澜沧江漫湾水库为例,在估算重金属Hg、Pb和Cd初始环境风险后,利用信息网络模型追踪分析生态系统中不同生态功能组分之间的风险传递路径,评估各生态组分和整体系统的危险程度。结果表明,在累积效应作用下,对于生态系统和部分群落,整合网络风险值与初始环境风险值之间有着显著差别;在发生环境胁迫时,虽然处于食物网底层的生物类群可能最先受险,但在控制信息作用下食物网上层类群也会受险,甚至其最终受到的潜在威胁比前者更大。信息网络模型可识别出复杂的风险流动路径和群落间的风险累积,从而为生态系统风险评价和管理提供更为系统综合的理论依据。     

Effects of large gatherings on the COVID-19 epidemic: Evidence from professional and college sports

We compare COVID-19 case loads and mortality across counties that hosted more versus fewer NHL hockey games, NBA basketball games, and NCAA basketball games during the early months of 2020, before any large outbreaks were identified. We find that hosting one additional NHL/NBA game in March 2020 leads to an additional 7520 cases and 658 deaths. Similarly, we find that hosting an additional NCAA Division 1 men's basketball game in March 2020 results in an additional 34 deaths. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the per-game fatality costs were 200–300 times greater than per-game spending.     

A proposed framework for developing indicators of ecosystem health

Considerations involved in developing a suite of indicators to monitor regional environmental health, similar in conception to management use of leading economic indicators, are described. Linkages between human activities and well being and the state of the environment are considered essential to the evaluation of general environmental health. Biogeochemical and socioeconomic indicators are mutually affected by environmental degradation and examples of both categories of indicators are described. Desirable properties in indicators of environmental health vary with their specific management use. Different indicators are called for when collecting data to assess the adequacy of the environment, monitor trends over time, provide early warning of environmental degradation, or diagnose the cause of an existing problem. Tradeoffs between desirable characteristics, costs, and quality of information are inevitable when choosing indicators for management use. Decisions about what information to collect for which purpose can be made more rationally when available indicators are characterized and matched to management goals.     

坡向对四川冶勒红豆杉种群分布格局的影响——基于斑块信息的分析

在斑块信息的基础上,利用GIS技术分析了坡向对四川冶勒红豆杉种群分布格局的影响.结果表明,冶勒红豆杉种群主要分布在西北向、东北向、东向和北向斑块上,这些斑块在分布面积、平均斑块大小、平均斑块周长以及红豆杉个体的分布数量方面均占绝对优势.红豆杉种群的分布同坡向之间存在极显著的关联性,种群优先分布于北坡、东北坡、西北坡和东坡斑块,其次为西坡和西南坡斑块,最后为平地和东南坡斑块.冶勒红豆杉种群的分布格局绝大多数为聚集分布(除南向斑块外).其中,种群聚集强度最大的是北向斑块,其CE值高达0.906,其次为东北向、西北向斑块,其CE值分别为0.797和0.563,而其余坡向斑块上的CE值均低于0.5.聚集强度CE值与斑块数量、斑块总周长以及斑块上分布的红豆杉个体数呈显著正相关(相关系数分别为0.936、0.735和0.802),而与斑块面积、平均斑块大小、平均斑块周长、平均形状指数无显著相关.     

An ecological framework linking scales across space and time based on self-thinning

Scaling up from measurements made at small spatial and short temporal scales is a central challenge in the ecological and related sciences, where predictions at larger scales and over long time periods are required. It involves two quite distinct aspects: a formulation of a theoretical framework for calculating space-time averages, and an acquisition of data to support that framework. In this paper, we address the theoretical part of the question, and although our primary motivation was an understanding of carbon accounting our formulation is more general. To that end, we adopt a dynamical systems approach, and incorporate a new dynamical formulation of self-thinning. We show how to calculate rates of change for total (and average) plant dry mass, volume, and carbon, in terms of the properties of the individual plants. The results emphasize how local scale statistics (such as, variation in the size of individuals) lead to nonlinear variation at larger scales. Further, we describe how regular and stochastic disturbance can be readily incorporated into this framework. It is shown that stochastic disturbance at patch-scales, results in (to first approximation) regular disturbance at ecosystem scales, and hence can be formulated as such. We conclude that a dynamical formulation of self-thinning can be used as a generic framework for scaling ecological processes in space and time.     

基于属性理论的城市生态系统健康评价——以重庆市北部新区为例

确定了城市生态系统健康评价指标体系,提出了基于属性理论的城市生态系统健康评价模型及评价方法。以重庆北部新区为对象,运用该模型和方法对重庆北部新区生态系统健康现状进行了评价。结果表明:重庆北部新区城市生态系统现状属于一般健康类;基于评价结果识别健康限制因素,提出了生态系统健康调控措施。