2002-2016年华北平原植被生长状况及水文要素时空特征分析

基于MODIS增强型植被指数（EVI）资料,结合降水、GRACE重力卫星水储量（TWS）、地下水、土壤水等资料,分析华北平原植被2002-2016年间的生长状况及各水文要素时空分布特征。研究结果表明：（1）2002-2016年间华北平原植被呈好转趋势,降水、水储量、土壤水、地下水等水文要素值呈减少趋势。（2）黄淮平原区植被以农作物为主,植被覆盖度呈增加趋势,而降水、水储量、地下水、土壤水均呈减少趋势,超采地下水灌溉农作物是短期内保障粮食安全的重要措施。（3）燕山-太行山山麓平原区、冀鲁豫低洼平原区的城乡居民用地区域植被覆盖显著减少,而降水增多,水储量、土壤水、地下水减少,人类活动对植被和水文要素贡献量大。（4）山东丘陵农林区分布着林地和草地,这些区域生长季的植被指数呈减少趋势,与降水量减少呈正相关关系。在气候变化和人类活动影响的大背景下,探讨不同生态环境的植被生长特征,清楚植被对水文变化的响应机理,可以消除影响植被生长的不利因素,为制定合理用水制度提供理论依据。     

Climate‐induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate‐related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long‐term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold‐water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968–2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high‐emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst‐case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold‐water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring‐fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold‐stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring‐fed streams. Climate change‐induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems.     

Physiology-based prognostic modeling of the influence of changes in precipitation on a keystone dryland plant species

Fluctuations in mean annual precipitation (MAP) will strongly influence the ecology of dryland ecosystems in the future, yet, because individual precipitation events drive growth and resource availability for many dryland organisms, changes in intra-annual precipitation may disproportionately influence future dryland processes. This work examines the hypothesis that intra-annual precipitation changes will drive dryland productivity to a greater extent than changes to MAP. To test this hypothesis, we created a physiology-based model to predict the effects of precipitation change on a widespread biocrust moss that regulates soil structure, water retention, and nutrient cycling in drylands. First, we used the model to examine moss productivity over the next 100 years driven by alterations in MAP by ±10, 20 and 30 %, and changes in intra-annual precipitation (event size and frequency). Productivity increased as a function of MAP, but differed among simulations where intra-annual precipitation was manipulated under constant MAP. Supporting our hypothesis, this demonstrates that, even if MAP does not change, changes in the features of individual precipitation events can strongly influence long-term performance. Second, we used the model to examine 100-year productivity based on projected dryland precipitation from published global and regional models. These simulations predicted 25–63 % reductions in productivity and increased moss mortality rates, declines that will likely alter water and nutrient cycling in dryland ecosystems. Intra-annual precipitation in model-based simulations was a stronger predictor of productivity compared to MAP, further supporting our hypothesis, and illustrating that intra-annual precipitation patterns may dominate dryland responses to altered precipitation in a future climate.     

基于多源数据的黄土高原陆地水循环结构变化分析

近几十年间,黄土高原的水循环进程在人类活动与气候变化的影响下已产生了剧烈的变化。为加深对水循环结构变化的了解与认识,利用1982-2010年的降水、蒸散发、径流、土壤储水量和社会经济用水等数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和线性回归分析方法,对黄土高原的水量平衡进行评估,且细化了组成水循环的12种水文变量,并分析了水循环各分量的变化趋势及其结构的演化规律。由于网格化的社会经济用水数据（1982-2010年）对本研究产生了较大的时间限制,因此本文注重于探究这29年间黄土高原各水文变量的变化趋势及水循环结构的演化规律。结果表明：在自然系统中,蒸散发以1.97 mm/a的速率上升（P<0.01）,径流、降水和土壤储水量分别以1.01 mm/a（P<0.01）、0.77 mm/a和0.46 mm/a的速率下降。在社会系统中,社会经济用水以0.50 mm/a的速率上升,其中主要由于生活、制造业、发电和采矿用水分别以0.22、0.23、0.30 mm/a和0.01 mm/a的速率增加所导致。此外,灌溉和牲畜用水分别以0.25 mm/a（P<0.05）、0.01 mm/a（P<0.01）的速率减少。就水循环结构而言,多年平均蒸散发和社会经济用水占水循环的平均比例分别为80.95%、15.27%,并以每年0.16%、0.06%的速率逐渐升高。径流、土壤储水量的变化占水循环的平均比例分别为4.00%、-0.24%,并以每年0.24%（P<0.01）、0.02%的速率逐渐下降。随着社会经济的发展和人口的增加,区域水资源供需矛盾将进一步加剧,本研究对黄土高原水资源的科学调控与可持续利用有重要参考意义。     

Determination of the relative uptake of ground vs. surface water by Populus deltoides during phytoremediation

The use of plants to remediate polluted groundwater is becoming an attractive alternative to more expensive traditional techniques. In order to adequately assess the effectiveness of the phytoremediation treatment, a clear understanding of water-use habits by the selected plant species is essential. We examined the relative uptake of surface water (i.e., precipitation) vs. groundwater by mature Populus deltoides by applying irrigation water at a rate equivalent to a 5-cm rain event. We used stable isotopes of hydrogen (D) and oxygen (18O) to identify groundwater and surface water (irrigation water) in the xylem sap water. Pretreatment isotopic ratios of both deuterium and 18O, ranked from heaviest to lightest, were irrigation water > groundwater > xylem sap. The discrepancy in preirrigation isotopic signatures between groundwater and xylem sap suggests that in the absence of a surface source of water (i.e., between rain events) there is an unknown amount of water being extracted from sources other than groundwater (i.e., soil surface water). We examined changes in volumetric soil water content (%), total hourly sapflux rates, and trichloroethene (TCE) concentrations. Following the irrigation treatment, volumetric soil water increased by 86% and sapflux increased by as much as 61%. Isotopic signatures of the xylem sap became substantially heavier following irrigation, suggesting that the applied irrigation water was quickly taken up by the plants. TCE concentrations in the xylem sap were diluted by an average of 21% following irrigation; however, dilution was low relative to the increase in sapflux. Our results show that water use by Populus deltoides is variable. Hence, studies addressing phytoremediation effectiveness must account for the relative proportion of surface vs. groundwater uptake.     

不同模拟增雨下白刺比叶面积和叶干物质含量的比较

以荒漠生态系统典型植物白刺(Nitraria tangutorum)为研究对象,根据内蒙古磴口多年平均降水量和植物生长规律,设计两个增雨时段(生长季前期与生长季后期),每个增雨时段设置两个增雨梯度(72.5mm/a(50%)、145mm/a(100%)),对天然白刺灌丛进行增雨实验,研究了不同模拟增雨处理下2012年与2013年生长季白刺叶片的比叶面积(SLA)与叶干物质含量(LDMC)的变化。结果表明,增雨处理可以增加白刺叶片的SLA及LDMC,同时期增雨100%处理对SLA及LDMC的影响大于50%处理,但同时期增雨的两个处理之间无显著差异;白刺叶片SLA在生长季前期对水分响应明显,LDMC则在生长季后期对水分反应敏感;相同增雨处理,2012年白刺叶片SLA及LDMC的净增加值高于2013年;SLA与LDMC在2012年呈显著负相关,在2013年虽呈负相关,但相关性不显著。在未来降雨增加的背景下,荒漠植物白刺叶片SLA与LDMC对增雨具有较强的协调适应能力,在不同生长季节可以通过改变不同的叶片性状来适应环境变化。     

Dynamics of water usage in Haloxylon ammodendron in the southern edge of the Gurbantünggüt Desert

植物的水分来源是荒漠地区植物水分关系研究的重要方面, 有助于理解荒漠植物对干旱环境的适应。为了研究古尔班通古特沙漠主要建群种梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)生长季的水分利用动态, 以及其对发生在不同时期相似量级降水脉冲的响应, 利用稳定性同位素技术测量了梭梭小枝木质部水、降水、0-300 cm不同土层的土壤水和地下水的δ ¹⁸O值。水源依据深度划分为4个: 浅层土壤水(0-40 cm), 中层土壤水(40-100 cm), 深层土壤水(100-300 cm)和地下水。然后, 应用IsoSource模型计算了梭梭对潜在水源的利用比例。结果表明: 4月份, 梭梭主要利用浅层土壤水, 利用比例为62%-95%; 5-9月份梭梭主要利用地下水, 利用比例为68%-100%。梭梭对不同时期发生的两场相似量级的降水具有不同程度的响应。5月22日, 6.7 mm降水后第1天, 梭梭对土壤水的吸收达到最大值, 由降水前的9.8%增长为降水后的40.4%, 同时降低了对地下水的吸收, 由降水前的83%-98%下降为42%-81%。8月31日7 mm降水后, 梭梭对土壤水的吸收没有增加, 仍然保持对地下水的高比例利用, 达71%-98%。低的土壤含水量可能抑制了表层根系的活性, 导致梭梭对降水不敏感。由冬季融雪和春季降水补给的浅层土壤水和地下水是梭梭种群可利用的两个重要水源。梭梭的水分利用动态反映了其对干旱环境的适应。     

Observation of irrigation‐induced climate change in the Midwest United States

Irrigated agriculture alters near‐surface temperature and humidity, which may mask global climate change at the regional scale. However, observational studies of irrigation‐induced climate change are lacking in temperate, humid regions throughout North America and Europe. Despite unknown climate impacts, irrigated agriculture is expanding in the Midwest United States, where unconfined aquifers provide groundwater to support crop production on coarse soils. This is the first study in the Midwest United States to observe and quantify differences in regional climate associated with irrigated agricultural conversion from forests and rainfed agriculture. To this end, we established a 60 km transect consisting of 28 stations across varying land uses and monitored surface air temperature and relative humidity for 31 months in the Wisconsin Central Sands region. We used a novel approach to quantify irrigated land use in both space and time with a database containing monthly groundwater withdrawal estimates by parcel for the state of Wisconsin. Irrigated agriculture decreased maximum temperatures and increased minimum temperatures, thus shrinking the diurnal temperature range (DTR) by an average of 3°C. Irrigated agriculture also decreased the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by an average of 0.10 kPa. Irrigated agriculture significantly decreased evaporative demand for 25% and 66% of study days compared to rainfed agriculture and forest, respectively. Differences in VPD across the land‐use gradient were highest (0.21 kPa) during the peak of the growing season, while differences in DTR were comparable year‐round. Interannual variability in temperature had greater impacts on differences in DTR and VPD across the land‐use gradient than interannual variability in precipitation. These regional climate changes must be considered together with increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes to groundwater quality, and surface water degradation when evaluating the costs and benefits of groundwater‐sourced irrigation expansion in the Midwest United States and similar regions around the world.     

污染场地地下水渗流场模拟与评价——以柘城县为例

地下水数值模拟技术可以定性、定量描述地下水系统中大量的不确定性和模糊因素。由于不合理的开发利用水资源,拓城县土壤和地表水受到污染严重。以拓城县作为研究区,通过探讨研究区的水文地质概念模型、地下水流运动的数学模型,求解该模型,确定研究方法。同时,结合地下水各类监测因子,对研究区的污染场场地地下水进行模拟评价,包括了参数率定和模型预测两部分,从而确定最合理的地下水开采方案。     

人工输水对石羊河下游青土湖区域生态环境的影响分析

通过对石羊河下游青土湖人工输水后水面形成区环境要素变化的调查研究,分析了水面形成对区域地下水位、植被、大气温湿度、风速等的影响。结果表明:(1)由于输水方式、输水时间集中等因素影响,区域水面形成快速;且每个输水周期完成6个月后的区域保留水面积持续增大,4a间水面积增加4.52倍,面积扩大的叠加效应明显。(2)输水作用和水面的形成,促使输水区域地下水埋深由6m,提升到0.6—3.2m。(3)水面形成促进了区域以白刺为代表的单一荒漠植被群落向芦苇草甸、盐化草甸等多样化群落演替。(4)水面形成的"冷岛效应"明显,促进了区域小气候环境的改善;输水区500m范围平均温度降低55.67%,湿度增加3倍。人工输水对青土湖区域生态环境的改善产生了明显的积极作用,但输水政策的持续性、输水策略调整等不确定性影响,以及水面形成对局部范围风沙活动、植物物种多样性等方面的负面影响值得关注和深入研究。     

Impact of a first-order riparian zone on nitrogen removal and export from an agricultural ecosystem

Riparian zones are reputed to be effective at preventing export of agricultural groundwater nitrogen (N) from local ecosystems. This is one impetus behind riparian zone regulations and initiatives. However, riparian zone function can vary under different conditions, with varying impacts on the regional (and ultimately global) environment. Rates of groundwater delivery to the surface appear to have significant effects on the N-removing capabilities of a riparian zone. Research conducted at a first-order agricultural watershed with a well-defined riparian zone in the Maryland coastal plain indicates that more than 2.5 kg/day of nitrate-N can be exported under moderate-to-high stream baseflow conditions. The total nitrate-N load that exits the system increases with increasing flow not simply because of the greater volume of water export. Stream water nitrate-N concentrations also increase by more than an order of magnitude as flow increases, at least during baseflow. This appears to be largely the result of changes in dominant groundwater delivery mechanisms. Higher rates of groundwater exfiltration lessen the contact time between nitrate-carrying groundwater and potentially reducing riparian soils. Subsurface preferential flow paths, in the wetland and adjacent field, also strongly influence N removal. Simple assumptions regarding riparian zone function may be inadequate because of complexities observed in response to changing hydrologic conditions.     

Thermally Induced Changes in the Physical Properties of Staphylococcus aureus

When suspensions of Staphylococcus aureus were stored at different temperatures in water or m sucrose, an increase or decrease (depending on the temperature of storage and the nature of the environment) in o.d. and light scattering properties occurred. Such changes were related to changes in cell size, leakage of intracellular constituents from the cells and precipitation of cytoplasmic material. Electron micrographs of ultrathin sections of cells illustrated some of these changes. The results demonstrated that caution was necessary in the interpretation of changes in o.d. and light scattering properties of this organism.     

基于机器学习模型的沙漠腹地地下水含盐量变化过程及模拟研究

为了研究塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的地下水盐分变化规律,模拟地下水盐分变化过程,评价适合该区域的地下水变化规律的模型。通过对研究区蒸发量、降水量、气温、气压、地下水位、地下水电导率数据的统计分析,揭示了地下水含盐量及其影响因素的特征;使用GP模型、GPLVM模型和BP人工神经网络模型以及综合模型,模拟了气候变化和人类活动双重影响下的地下水含盐量变化过程,并评价了模型的模拟结果。研究结果表明:(1)研究区地下水流动系统主要受气候变化和人类活动的影响,地下水位在局部地区随开采过程呈现波动变化。地下水位变化过程与气压的变化规律相一致;而气温和蒸发量的季节变化规律相一致。地下水盐分含量呈上升趋势。(2)GP模型对于地下水含盐量的预测效果最好;GPLVM模型对于已知地下水含盐量条件下,与其他环境因素进行多元回归分析的拟合效果最好。而GP、GPLVM和BP人工神经网络模型的综合模型,对于包括模型训练和模型预测的全体数据集的拟合和预测效果最好。     

泾河流域上游土石山区和黄土区森林覆盖率变化的水文影响模拟

泾河流域上游是黄土高原的重要水源地和退耕还林工程区,在较大空间尺度上定量评价区内森林覆盖增加的水文影响对科学指导林业生态环境建设、保障区域水安全和可持续发展均有重要意义。为了在尽量排除地形、土壤、气候等作用的基础上定量评价森林的影响,将泾河上游划分为土石山区和黄土区,分别制定了多种森林恢复情景,利用分布式流域生态水文模型(SWIM)模拟评价了森林覆盖率及其空间分布变化对流域年蒸散量、年产流量、年地下水补给量、年土壤深层渗漏量及日径流洪峰的影响。土石山区模拟结果表明,增加森林覆盖将增加流域蒸散和减少流域产流,如现有森林覆盖(占全流域面积比例为13.8%)情景与现有森林变为草地(占全流域面积比例为0)情景相比时,流域年蒸散量从445.4 mm变为427.7 mm(减少了17.4 mm和4%);年产流量从42.4 mm变为53.5 mm(增加了11.1 mm和26.3%),年地下水补给量从61.6 mm变为76.9 mm(增加了15.3 mm和24.8%),年深层渗漏量从72.9 mm变为88.3 mm(增加了17.7 mm和24.3%);平均森林覆盖率每增加10%,导致流域年蒸散量增加12.8 mm,年产流量减少8.0 mm,年地下水补给量减少11.1 mm。在比较干旱和土层深厚的黄土区,增加森林覆盖将同样增大流域蒸散和减少流域产流,但变化幅度明显小于降水相对丰富和土层浅薄的土石山区,平均森林面积增加10%导致流域年蒸散量增加9.0 mm,年产流量减少4.5 mm,年地下水补给量减少8.8 mm;此外,在较缓坡面造林的水文影响大于较陡坡面造林。从森林水文影响的年内变化来看时,森林覆盖率升高的水文影响在土石山区和黄土区也有差别,如土石山区5—7月份的蒸散显著增加,5—10月份的深层渗漏均有减少;而黄土区是蒸散量在5—10月均有增加,深层渗漏在7—10月份显著减少。另外,土石山区森林覆盖率增加对日径流峰值的影响不显著,而黄土区则能明显削弱,这可能主要是因土石山区的高石砾含量土壤的渗透性能明显高于黄土区的黄土,而黄土区的森林能够明显改善土壤入渗性能和减少地面径流形成。     

近30年新疆植被生长异常值时空变化及驱动因子

作为陆地生态系统的主体,植被的时空变化深刻地影响着景观格局和生态功能,深入理解植被动态及其对气候变化的响应,对于提高对生态过程的认识、加强生态管理具有重要意义。在一致性检验的基础上,利用中分辨率成像光谱仪(moderateresolution imaging Spectroradiometer,MODIS)的归一化植被指数(normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据集将新疆地区全球检测与模型研究组(Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies,GIMMS)开发的NDVI数据集的时间序列拓展到2012年,探讨了生长季和各季节植被绿度、气候异常值的动态变化,分析了植被对气候变化的响应。研究结果显示,区域尺度和像元尺度GIMMS与MODIS NDVI之间的一致性较强。1982—2012年,研究区域生长季和各季节植被绿度呈显著增加趋势,但生长季存在明显阶段性:1998年前后分别呈显著增加和显著减少,夏季与秋季与生长季类似,而春季则不存在变化趋势的逆转。NDVI呈正异常值的面积比例与区域尺度NDVI的变化趋势一致;极端异常值、较大异常值多呈明显减少趋势,而一般异常值多呈增加趋势,NDVI的变化倾向于逐渐平稳。区域变暖趋势显著,降水量略有增加,潜在蒸散发显著提高,而湿润指数变化不明显。气温、潜在蒸散发主要在春季、秋季促进植被生长,而夏季降水量、湿润指数对植被生长的调节作用更为突出。     

A global perspective of regional vegetation and hydrologic sensitivities from climatic change

Abstract. A biogeographic model, MAPSS (Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System), predicts changes in vegetation leaf area index (LAI), site water balance and runoff, as well as changes in biome boundaries. Potential scenarios of global and regional equilibrium changes in LAI and terrestrial water balance under 2 x CO₂ climate from five different general circulation models (GCMs) are presented. Regional patterns of vegetation change and annual runoff are surprisingly consistent among the five GCM scenarios, given the general lack of consistency in predicted changes in regional precipitation patterns. Two factors contribute to the consistency among the GCMs of the regional ecological impacts of climatic change: (1) regional, temperature-induced increases in potential evapo-transpiration (PET) tend to more than offset regional increases in precipitation; and (2) the interplay between the general circulation and the continental margins and mountain ranges produces a fairly stable pattern of regionally specific sensitivity to climatic change. Two areas exhibiting among the greatest sensitivity to drought-induced forest decline are eastern North America and eastern Europe to western Russia. Regional runoff patterns exhibit much greater spatial variation in the sign of the response than do the LAI changes, even though they are deterministically linked in the model. Uncertainties with respect to PET or vegetation water use efficiency calculations can alter the simulated sign of regional responses, but the relative responses of adjacent regions appear to be largely a function of the background climate, rather than the vagaries of the GCMs, and are intrinsic to the landscape. Thus, spatial uncertainty maps can be drawn even under the current generation of GCMs.     

Sensitivity of canopy transpiration to altered precipitation in an upland oak forest: evidence from a long-term field manipulation study

Climate‐induced changes in regional precipitation could have important implications for the carbon, water, and nutrient cycles of forest ecosystems. However, few studies have examined the response of deciduous forests to increases or decreases in precipitation. Therefore, the throughfall displacement experiment (TDE) was established in 1993 near Oak Ridge, Tennessee to examine the sensitivity of an upland oak (Quercus spp.) forest to ambient, wet (+33%), and dry (?33%) precipitation regimes. Sap flux measurements on co‐occurring tree species were scaled using species‐specific estimates of stand sapwood area to derive daily and seasonal rates of canopy transpiration (E_C) from 2000 to 2003. With the exception of 2003, which was an extremely wet year, daily E_C in the dry plot, and occasionally during extended droughts in the ambient and wet plots, declined as water potential in the upper 0.35 m soil profile approached ‐3.0 MPa. Seasonal patterns of soil water potential and treatment‐specific differences in E_C were dependent on precipitation frequency and intensity. Supplemental precipitation added to the wet plot increased seasonal E_C on average by 9% (range ?1% to 19%), whereas extended periods of drought on the dry plot in 2000, 2001, and 2002 were sufficient to reduce seasonal E_C by 26–30% compared with the ambient plot. There was a strong correlation between seasonal E_C and the water stress integral, a cumulative index of drought severity and duration. A polynomial fitted to these data indicated that reductions in seasonal E_C on the order of 40% were possible given TDE‐imposed reductions in soil water potential. Application of this equation to all years of the TDE (1994–2003) revealed considerable interannual and treatment‐specific variation in canopy transpiration. In general, a 33% removal of throughfall on the dry plot during 1995, 1998, and 2002 resulted in a 23–32% reduction in seasonal E_C compared with the ambient plot. While droughts in deciduous forests are often limited in duration and tend to occur late in the growing season, soil water deficits of the magnitude observed in this study have the potential to impact local and regional forest water budgets.     

鼎湖山流域下游浅层地下水动态变化及其机理研究

全球变暖和降水格局的改变将如何影响下垫面水文过程是一个被普遍关注的重大科学问题,然而要阐述其内在联系首先必须排除人类活动及土地格局变化的影响。论文以严格保护下的鼎湖山自然保护区为研究对象(排除人类活动及土地格局变化的影响),以其完整集水区下游区域地下水测井系统测定的地下水位数据为基础,拟阐述全球变暖和降水格局改变对该地区地下水位多年变化动态及趋势的影响机制。结果表明:2000年至2009年10 a间鼎湖山流域下游浅层地下水位由2000年的-2.27 m上升到2009年的-1.81 m,年均极显著(p = 0.005)上升0.043 m·a^-1;地下水位干湿季差异显著,湿季地下水位显著(p < 0.001) 高于干季,分别为-1.87±0.23 m、-2.25±0.15 m。时间序列上,干季地下水位无显著(p = 0.190)变化,湿季(1999-2009年)地下水位呈极显著(p = 0.002)上升趋势;日地下水位变异系数CV_wt = 0.20明显小于日降水量 CV_p = 2.77,日地下水位动态与前40 d的日降水量有关;地下水位的变化不能用同期内降水量变化(p = 0.294)解释,分析认为降水格局的变化是导致地下水位上升的基本原因。该研究对评估降水格局改变和全球变暖环境下,地下水资源的变化趋势有重要指示意义。     

密云水库白河流域基流演变特征

基流是水文过程的一个重要组成部分,选择科学合理的基流分割方法,研究明确影响基流变化的驱动因素,对于保证河湖的生态水量至关重要。以北京密云水库的白河流域为例,根据白河流域张家坟水文站1967—2012年的实测径流数据和相关气象数据,对比分析了局部最小值法、单参数数字滤波法和递归数字滤波法三种方法的基流分割结果,并从气候变化和人类活动两方面分析影响基流变化的驱动因素。结果表明,相比局部最小值法和单参数数字滤波法,递归数字滤波法在白河流域有着更好的应用稳定性;在密云水库白河流域,基流对河川径流有着相当高的贡献比例(BFI>0.65);1967—2012年白河流域年基流量存在极显著的减少趋势(P<0.01),而年基流指数值基本保持不变。白河流域基流序列分别在1980年和1999年发生了突变,其中1999年的突变主要受到降雨过程(气候变化)的影响,而1980年的突变点主要受到其他因素(如人类活动)的影响。     

A 2917-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation for the Buerhanbuda Mts., Southeastern Qaidam Basin,China

In this study, we developed the tree-ring width chronology for the period of 1404 BCE to 2015 CE using Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) trees collected from the Buerhanbuda Mts. in the southeastern Qaidam Basin (QB) near Nuomuhong Village, Qinghai Province. This is the first and longest chronology to date in this region. Based on the relationships between the tree-ring width chronology and climate data, the annual precipitation from previous July to current June (July-June) was reconstructed for the past 2917 years from 902 BCE to 2015 CE. This reconstruction accounted for 47.9% of the total variance in the actual July-June precipitation in the calibration period (1957–2015). The full reconstruction captured distinct wet and dry variability, and contained evidence of some low-frequency climate signals. We identified 13 wet and 12 dry periods, of which 1443–1503 CE and 1789–1836 CE were the two longest dry periods. General agreements in the low-frequency variations between the July-June precipitation and other moisture-sensitive records for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) suggested that the reconstruction in this study represented a regional signal. Spatial correlations with gridded precipitation data also indicated that the reconstructed July-June precipitation could adequately represent climate fluctuations over a large area of the northeastern TP. The new tree-ring width chronology and precipitation reconstruction are important for understanding natural climate change in the southeastern QB.