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1.
Yoko Shimizu;Arnon Accad;Alison Shapcott; 《Austral ecology》2024,49(6):e13546
Threatened species in rainforests may be vulnerable to climate change, because of their potentially narrow thermal tolerances, small population sizes, restricted distributions and limited dispersal. We investigated the relative influence of potential climate change on the population viability of Triunia robusta (Proteaceae), an endangered rainforest shrub endemic to southeast Queensland, Australia. A spatially explicit, stochastic population model with seven stage classes was developed and linked with the species distribution model (SDM) to explore a variety of hypothetical climate change simulations over a 90-year period from 2010 to 2100: (1) constant population dynamics, (2) changes in habitat distributions as trend in carrying capacity and (3) changes in habitat distributions, precipitation and temperature regime as relative change in seedling survival and fecundity. The results revealed high vulnerability of small populations to local extinction regardless of geographical location or climatic stressors, while some larger populations located in the southern end of the species distribution range showed persistence in-situ. Triunia robusta was found to be sensitive to reduced precipitation and increased temperature, limiting the species reproductive activities and seedling establishment and reducing the overall abundance consequently. Integration of population models and SDM allowed for the evaluation of multiple climatic stressors that may affect habitat distributions and population dynamics of T. robusta and ultimately suggest potential implications for future conservation and management planning with respect to climate change. 相似文献
2.
种群生存力分析:准确性和保护应用 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
目前已提出了五类估计濒危物种绝灭风险的种群生存力分析模型 ,即 :分析模型、单种群确定性模型、单种群随机模型、异质种群模型和显空间模型。模型的选择取决于物种的生活史特征和可用的数据。与用于保护实践的其他方法相比 ,种群生存力分析 (PVA)是相对准确的量化工具。然而 ,一些濒危物种种群统计学数据质量差和种群动态的有关假说模糊不清可能影响到模型预测的准确性 ,因此 ,要谨慎地使用PVA。在西方国家 ,PVA在濒危物种保护计划和管理中应用越来越广泛。它主要用于 :( 1)预测濒危物种未来的种群大小 ;( 2 )估计一定时间内物种的绝灭风险 ;( 3 )评估一套保护措施 ,确定哪个能使种群的存活时间最长 ;( 4)探索不同假说对小种群动态的影响 ;( 5 )指导濒危动物野外数据的搜集工作。我国的濒危物种很多 ,然而开展PVA研究的濒危物种却很少。应大力发展适合于模拟我国特有濒危物种及其保护问题的PVA模型 相似文献
3.
Habitat conditions mediate the effects of climate, so neighboring populations with differing habitat conditions may differ in their responses to climate change. We have previously observed that juvenile survival in Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon is strongly correlated with summer temperature in some populations and with fall streamflow in others. Here, we explore potential differential responses of the viability of four of these populations to changes in streamflow and temperature that might result from climate change. First, we linked predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation from several General Circulation Models to a local hydrological model to project streamflow and air temperature under two climate‐change scenarios. Then, we developed a stochastic, density‐dependent life‐cycle model with independent environmental effects in juvenile and ocean stages, and parameterized the model for each population. We found that mean abundance decreased 20–50% and the probability of quasi‐extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1–0.4 to 0.3–0.9) for all populations in both scenarios. Differences between populations were greater in the more moderate climate scenario than in the more extreme, hot/dry scenario. Model results were relatively robust to realistic uncertainty in freshwater survival parameters in all scenarios. Our results demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate‐change predictions, and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish, increasing their risk of extinction. Because differences in habitat may contribute to the individualistic population responses we observed, we infer that maintaining habitat diversity will help buffer some species from the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
4.
Sarah J. Converse Clinton T. Moore Doug P. Armstrong 《The Journal of wildlife management》2013,77(6):1081-1093
5.
对濒危物种的科学内涵、濒危机制和物种保护方法进行综述。具体阐述了种群生存力分析 (PVA)技术和复合种群理论(Meta- population)在濒危物种保护中的应用 ;总结了分子生物学方法在濒危物种保护中的作用 ;探讨了“3S”技术在濒危物种保护中的应用前景。分析和评价了各种保护方法的实用性和局限性 ,提出了各种保护方法在濒危物种保护中的应用前景和发展趋势。总之 ,物种保护方法的不断发展开创了保护生物学研究的新篇章 ,怎样运用交叉学科理论和综合应用各种保护方法探讨物种濒危机制、制定濒危物种有效管理和保护措施 ,是需要进一步解决的科学问题。 相似文献
6.
科尔沁沙地刺榆群落的结构特征 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
对科尔沁沙地刺榆（Hemiptelea davidii）群落的种类组成及其生态类型结构进行了调查.结果表明：研究区刺榆林不存在灌木层;其乔木层可划分为2个亚层,上、下层高度分别为4.05~7.86和2.05~3.20 m;林下共有32种草本植物,隶属13科27属,以禾本科、豆科和菊科为主;研究区有11个植被分布区型,其中,蒙古-东北-兴安-华北分布区型种类最多（34.38%）,其次为东北-华北分布区型（12.5%）.在3个水分生态类型中,中生植物最多,占59.37%,中旱生类型和旱生类型分别占25%和15.63%.在6个生活型中,地面芽植物最多（31.25%）. 刺榆群落具有温带草原的典型生活型特征. 相似文献
7.
Jonathan W. Cummings Mary Parkin Jim Zelenak Heather Bell Kurt Broderdorp Bryon Holt Mark McCollough Tamara Smith 《Conservation Science and Practice》2020,2(11):e2284
In 2015, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service initiated a review of the status of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in the contiguous United States. Available research and monitoring, while substantial, lacked information on the demographic rates, abundance, and trends necessary to complete a full viability assessment. Therefore, alternative sources of information were needed to inform the species status assessment. We designed and conducted an expert elicitation to capture the knowledge, professional judgments, and opinions of lynx experts to assess the status of, and the drivers influencing, these lynx populations. We elicited the likelihood and level of uncertainty regarding future persistence over several time frames (at years 2025, 2050, and 2100). The elicitation revealed experts' concerns that expected climate-driven losses in habitat quality, quantity, and related factors will likely result in declines. Experts expect resident populations of lynx will persist in all five currently occupied geographic units in 2025; in 4 or 5 of the units at 2050; and in 2 or 3 units at 2100. Experts expressed a high level of uncertainty regarding the rate and extent of decline due to projected climate warming and corresponding effects to these lynx populations. In the absence of adequate monitoring data, this type of expert elicitation is a useful method to aid classification decisions, such as providing the scientific information the Service relied upon to complete the November 5, 2017 5-year review which recommended that the lynx distinct population segment be removed from the list of threatened and endangered species. 相似文献
8.
Heather A. Mathewson Julie E. Groce Tiffany M. Mcfarland Michael L. Morrison J. Cal Newnam R. Todd Snelgrove Bret A. Collier R. Neal Wilkins 《The Journal of wildlife management》2012,76(6):1117-1128
Population abundance estimates using predictive models are important for describing habitat use and responses to population-level impacts, evaluating conservation status of a species, and for establishing monitoring programs. The golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is a neotropical migratory bird that was listed as federally endangered in 1990 because of threats related to loss and fragmentation of its woodland habitat. Since listing, abundance estimates for the species have mainly relied on localized population studies on public lands and qualitative-based methods. Our goal was to estimate breeding population size of male warblers using a predictive model based on metrics for patches of woodland habitat throughout the species' breeding range. We first conducted occupancy surveys to determine range-wide distribution. We then conducted standard point-count surveys on a subset of the initial sampling locations to estimate density of males. Mean observed patch-specific density was 0.23 males/ha (95% CI = 0.197–0.252, n = 301). We modeled the relationship between patch-specific density of males and woodland patch characteristics (size and landscape composition) and predicted patch occupancy. The probability of patch occupancy, derived from a model that used patch size and landscape composition as predictor variables while addressing effects of spatial relatedness, best predicted patch-specific density. We predicted patch-specific densities as a function of occupancy probability and estimated abundance of male warblers across 63,616 woodland patches accounting for 1.678 million ha of potential warbler habitat. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, our approach yielded a range-wide male warbler population estimate of 263,339 (95% CI: 223,927–302,620). Our results provide the first abundance estimate using habitat and count data from a sampling design focused on range-wide inference. Managers can use the resulting model as a tool to support conservation planning and guide recovery efforts. © 2012 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
9.
Thierry Chambert Adam R. Backlin Elizabeth Gallegos Bradd Baskerville-Bridges Robert N. Fisher 《Conservation Science and Practice》2022,4(5):e12666
The endangered mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) has been reduced to <10 isolated populations in the wild. Due to frequent catastrophic events (floods, droughts, wildfires), the recent dynamics of these populations have been erratic, making the future of the species highly uncertain. In 2018, a recovery plan was developed to improve the species status by reducing the impacts of various threats (predation, disease, habitat destruction), as well as reinforcing wild populations through the reintroduction of captive-bred frogs. The short-term goal stated in this plan was to reach a minimum of 20 populations of 50 adults each (hereafter, the 20/50 target), before the species can be considered for downlisting from the U.S. Endangered Species Act. However, there is no guarantee that this 20/50 target will be sufficient to ensure the species persistence in the long run. Using 19 years of mark-recapture data, we estimated populations' demographic trends and assessed the viability of R. muscosa from a starting state of 20 populations of 50 adults each (i.e., the downlisting criteria). Our results reveal that, from this 20/50 state, the species has high chances of persistence only at a short time horizon (50 years). Moreover, >80% of populations would be extinct 50 years later. Therefore, the species will not be able to persist without implementation of the reintroduction program. We found that it is more important to increase the number of suitable sites occupied by R. muscosa than to simply reinforce or augment existing populations. Expanding the current distribution by establishing new populations at suitable sites, even after the “20 populations” mark has been reached, would increase the likelihood of the species' persistence in the longer term. 相似文献
10.
羽叶丁香(Syringa pinnatifolia Hemsl.)是中国特有的珍稀濒危物种,首次对中卫香山和贺兰山甘沟保护区两地的天然种群进行调查,通过建立种群静态生命表,绘制种群存活曲线描绘其种群结构特征,利用种群数量动态预测和时间序列分析定量研究其未来的发展趋势。结果显示,中卫香山种群属于增长型,贺兰山甘沟种群属于衰退型,二者对外界干扰均比较敏感。两地羽叶丁香种群均不同程度地缺乏幼苗,种群发展主要靠中老龄个体维持,存活曲线都趋向于Deevey-Ⅱ型,死亡率曲线和危险率曲线均显示随着年龄的增长,各龄级呈波状上升趋势,且中卫香山种群波动更明显,生存分析也显示中卫香山种群更早进入衰退期,结合生境气候条件,贺兰山甘沟地区更适宜羽叶丁香的生存。动态指数和时间序列分析显示羽叶丁香种群具有前期缺乏,中期稳定,后期衰退的动态特征,幼龄个体的缺乏是导致其濒危的重要原因之一。因此,建议在目前封山育林保护基础上,加强羽叶丁香高效繁育技术研究,并适当进行人工抚育,以保证其种群的正常更新。 相似文献
11.
关于物种濒危等级标准之探讨--对IUCN物种濒危等级的思考 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7
为了保存地球上的生物多样性,我们需要根据物种的种群数量与分布、种群数量波动与分布区下降速率来评定濒危物种的濒危等级,并针对物种的濒危等级提出具体的保护措施。1994年11月,IUCN第40次理事会会议正式通过了经过修订的Mace-Lande物种濒危等级标准作为IUCN物种濒危等级标准。IUCN濒危物种红色名录虽然不是国际法和国家法律,但是对于政府间组织、非政府组织的保护决策以及各国的自然法律法规的制定有着深远的影响,在保护生物学理论研究中也发挥了一定作用。我们在研究制定中国水生野生生物濒危等级标准时发现,如果直接应用IUCN物种濒危等级标准评定水生野生生物濒危等级将存在一些问题。如：(1)如何区别对待那些本来就数量稀少、分布区狭窄的物种和那些由于人类活动而导致其种群数量与生境面积急剧下降的物种?(2)不同的动物类群能否应用同一濒危标准尺度?(3)如何区别对待物种边缘分布区和核心分布区的种群数量与密度的差异?(4)如何处理种群的局部灭绝、局部濒危?(5)一些濒危物种在野生环境中濒危,但是这些物种可以人工繁殖,如何处理可以人工繁殖的濒危物种?(6)如果没有种群与栖息地的精确历史资料和统计数据,怎样应用物种的濒危标准评估其濒危等级?在实践中,我们针对这些问题提出了解决方案。考虑与国际流行的IUCN物种濒危等级标准接轨,我们提出来一个由“无危”、“值得关注”、“受胁”、“濒危”和“灭绝”等5个级构成的濒危等级系统,其中“值得关注”、“受胁”、“濒危”又分为“一般”与“高度”两个亚等级。我们提出应区分“生态濒危物种”、“进化濒危物种”;对于不同生物类群,应区分物种的生活史对策,制定不同生活史物种的濒危标准。对于r-对策物种,引入“经济灭绝”这一等级,将这一等级对应于“受胁”等级,以解决缺少物种数量的统计数据和历史数据这一难题;区别对待特有物种,将其濒危等级提升一等;引进集合种群(metapopulation)概念,将集合种群的局域种群(local population)作为“个体”对待。 相似文献
12.
Nora H. Oleas Alan W. Meerow Javier Francisco‐Ortega 《Botanical journal of the Linnean Society. Linnean Society of London》2016,182(1):169-179
Phaedranassa schizantha (Amaryllidaceae) is an endangered species endemic to Ecuador and two varieties have been described: P. schizantha var. schizantha and P. schizantha var. ignea. We assessed population genetic structure and demographic patterns in 11 populations across the range of the species using 13 microsatellite loci. Our data show that genetic diversity was generally lower in the southern part of the range and was especially low in populations closest to cities. We found significant population differentiation (FST = 0.14, DEST = 0.34) and evidence of a genetic bottleneck. Genetic variation did not show isolation by distance. Instead, results suggest genetic barriers around two main cities. Bayesian analysis identified two genetic groups, neither of which represents either of the two varieties previously recognized. Coalescent analysis indicates a relatively recent colonization pattern between the two genetic groups (< 3000 generations). Conservation efforts need to be taken to facilitate genetic exchange between the groups, especially between locations that seem to be genetically isolated. 相似文献
13.
Sarah A. M. Pierson Carolyn H. Keiffer Brian C. McCarthy Steven H. Rogstad 《Restoration Ecology》2007,15(3):420-429
In restoring species, reasons for introducing limited numbers of individuals at different locations include costs of introduction and maintenance, limited founder supply, and risk “bet hedging.” However, populations initiated from few founders may experience increased genetic drift, inbreeding, and diversity loss. We examined the genetic diversity of an isolated stand of more than 5,000 American chestnut trees relative to that of the 9 surviving stand founders (out of 10 total) planted in the 1880s. We used minisatellite DNA probes to reveal 84 genetic markers (circa 24 loci) among the nine founders, and their genetic diversity was compared with three separate plots of descendant trees, as well as with two natural stands. The descendants were circa 7.3% more heterozygous than the founders (mean estimated H= 0.556 vs. 0.518, respectively; p < 0.0001). Genetic differentiation was not pronounced (FST < 0.031), and no markers, including those at low frequency among the founders, were lost in the descendants. The founders and natural transects were not significantly different in H or similarity (mean proportion of bands shared). Special planting or mating protocols for establishment of a vigorous American chestnut population from a low number of founders may not be required to avoid strong effects of genetic drift and inbreeding. These results demonstrate that loss of genetic diversity following reintroduction of a limited number of founders is not always inevitable, such as this case where the species is highly outcrossing, expression of heterozygous advantage may occur, the original founders remain as gene contributors over generations, and the establishing population expands constantly and rapidly. 相似文献
14.
Cheri Gratto‐Trevor Susan M. Haig Mark P. Miller Thomas D. Mullins Sidney Maddock Erin Roche Predensa Moore 《Journal of Field Ornithology》2016,87(1):29-41
Most of the known wintering areas of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) are along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States and into Mexico, and in the Caribbean. However, 1066 threatened/endangered Piping Plovers were recently found wintering in The Bahamas, an area not previously known to be important for the species. Although representing about 27% of the birds counted during the 2011 International Piping Plover Winter Census, the location of their breeding site(s) was unknown. Thus, our objectives were to determine the location(s) of their breeding site(s) using molecular markers and by tracking banded individuals, identify spring and fall staging sites, and examine site fidelity and survival. We captured and color‐banded 57 birds in January and February 2010 in The Bahamas. Blood samples were also collected for genetic evaluation of the likely subspecies wintering in The Bahamas. Band re‐sightings and DNA analysis revealed that at least 95% of the Piping Plovers wintering in The Bahamas originated on the Atlantic coast of the United States and Canada. Re‐sightings of birds banded in The Bahamas spanned the breeding distribution of the species along the Atlantic coast from Newfoundland to North Carolina. Site fidelity to breeding and wintering sites was high (88–100%). Spring and fall staging sites were located along the Atlantic coast of the United States, with marked birds concentrating in the Carolinas. Our estimate of true survival for the marked birds was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.61–0.80). Our results indicate that more than one third of the Piping Plover population that breeds along the Atlantic coast winters in The Bahamas. By determining the importance of The Bahamas to the Atlantic subspecies of Piping Plovers, future conservation efforts for these populations can be better focused on where they are most needed. 相似文献
15.
General biological characteristics and the contemporary status of the kaluga, Huso dauricus, and Amur sturgeon, Acipenser schrenckii, are described. Both inhabit the Amur River basin. Kaluga is the largest freshwater fish in this river system reaching more than 5.6 m in length and more than 1000 kg in weight. We recognize four populations of kaluga: the first is from the estuary of the Amur River and coastal brackish waters of the Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan, the second is from the lower Amur River, the third is from the middle-Amur, and the fourth occurs in lower reaches of the Zeya and Bureya rivers. Freshwater and brackish water morphs exist in the estuary population, with the freshwater morph predominating in number. The number of individuals in the lower Amur River population at age 2 or greater was recently estimated to be 40 000, and in the middle Amur, 30 000. The population will continue to decline because of rampant overfishing. The Amur sturgeon is represented in the Amur River basin by two morphs: brown and gray. Brown morphs occur in the middle and lower parts of the Amur River; they grow more slowly than the gray ones. Today, the lower Amur River population of Amur sturgeon is made up of 95 000 fish at age 2 or greater and is approximately half as large as the population in the middle Amur River. Populations of kaluga and Amur sturgeon in the Zeya and Bureya rivers are extremely small and on the verge of extinction. 相似文献
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17.
Seed germination of Melocactus sergipensis N.P. Taylor & M.V. Meiado,the newest Brazilian cactus destined for extinction 
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下载免费PDF全文 Marcos V. Meiado 《Plant Species Biology》2016,31(4):296-299
Recently, a new cactus was discovered in an area of the Caatinga, a tropical dry forest of north‐eastern Brazil. Although this discovery is excellent news, Melocactus sergipensis is critically endangered because it is affected by deforestation of native vegetation and chemicals used in the maize crop, next to the holotype locality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the seed germination and seedling survival of the newest Brazilian cactus. All germination treatments were performed at room temperature and white light or continuous darkness. For the evaluation of establishment, 50 seedlings were examined at 30‐day intervals for 5 months. I did not observe seed germination of M. sergipensis in continuous darkness, which shows that the newly discovered species is positive photoblastic. However, a high germinability was observed under white light (80.0 ± 10.8%), indicating that the seeds of the newly discovered species are able to germinate and the light is needed for seed germination. After 5 months, seedling mortality was less than 5%. These results show that the seedlings of the newly discovered cactus can be produced in a glasshouse, providing support for studies on ex situ conservation of a species that could become extinct in the near future. 相似文献
18.
王献溥 《植物资源与环境学报》1995,(2)
ＣＩＴＥＳ（濒危野生动植物国际贸易公约）是一个通过控制贸易的方法来维护物种生存及其持续利用的国际法规,其附录中所列的物种是重点管理的对象,主要根据现有的Ｂｅｒｎｅ标准来确定。但是,长期的实践证明,它已不能满足实际的需要。１９９２年６月ＣＩＴＥＳ常务委员会要求世界保护联盟协助制定一个简明、实用、科学和客观的新标准,本文对此作一简介和讨论。 相似文献
19.
Rosas KG Pérez-Buitrago N Acevedo JP Martínez N Funk SM McMillan WO 《Molecular ecology resources》2008,8(4):825-827
We isolated and characterized 11 microsatellite loci in the Mona Island iguana (Cyclura cornuta stejnegeri). Eleven loci exhibit moderate to high allelic diversity (two to 12 alleles, mean = 4.5) and polymorphism (mean observed heterozygosity, 0.56; range, 0.26 to 0.78) in 41 adults. This marker set has low probability of identity and high parentage exclusion power and will be suitable for studies of paternity, social organization and relatedness in this species. 相似文献