Gene Expression Profiling in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells of Patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency: Modulation of Adaptive Immune Response following Intravenous Immunoglobulin Therapy

Background

Regular intravenous immunoglobulin treatment is used to replace antibody deficiency in primary immunodeficiency diseases; however the therapeutic effect seems to be related not only to antibody replacement but also to an active role in the modulation of the immune response. Common variable immunodeficiency is the most frequent primary immunodeficiency seen in clinical practice.

Methods

We have studied the effect of intravenous immunoglobulin replacement in patients with common variable immunodeficiency by evaluating the gene-expression profiles from Affimetrix HG-U133A. Some of the gene array results were validated by real time RT-PCR and by the measurement of circulating cytokines and chemokines by ELISA. Moreover we performed FACS analysis of blood mononuclear cells from the patients enrolled in the study.

Results

A series of genes involved in innate and acquired immune responses were markedly up- or down-modulated before therapy. Such genes included CD14, CD36, LEPR, IRF-5, RGS-1, CD38, TNFRSF25, IL-4, CXCR4, CCR3, IL-8. Most of these modulated genes showed an expression similar to that of normal controls after immunoglobulin replacement. Real time RT-PCR of selected genes and serum levels of IL-4, CXCR4 before and after therapy changed accordingly to gene array results. Interestingly, serum levels of IL-8 remained unchanged, as the corresponding gene, before and after treatment. FACS analysis showed a marked decrease of CD8+T cells and an increase of CD4+T cells following treatment. Moreover we observed a marked increase of CD23⁻CD27⁻IgM⁻IgG⁻ B cells (centrocytes).

Conclusions

Our results are in accordance with previous reports and provide further support to the hypothesis that the benefits of intravenous immunoglobulin therapy are not only related to antibody replacement but also to its ability to modulate the immune response in common variable immunodeficiency.     

Predicting outcomes of prostate cancer immunotherapy by personalized mathematical models

Background

Therapeutic vaccination against disseminated prostate cancer (PCa) is partially effective in some PCa patients. We hypothesized that the efficacy of treatment will be enhanced by individualized vaccination regimens tailored by simple mathematical models.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a general mathematical model encompassing the basic interactions of a vaccine, immune system and PCa cells, and validated it by the results of a clinical trial testing an allogeneic PCa whole-cell vaccine. For model validation in the absence of any other pertinent marker, we used the clinically measured changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels as a correlate of tumor burden. Up to 26 PSA levels measured per patient were divided into each patient''s training set and his validation set. The training set, used for model personalization, contained the patient''s initial sequence of PSA levels; the validation set contained his subsequent PSA data points. Personalized models were simulated to predict changes in tumor burden and PSA levels and predictions were compared to the validation set. The model accurately predicted PSA levels over the entire measured period in 12 of the 15 vaccination-responsive patients (the coefficient of determination between the predicted and observed PSA values was R ² = 0.972). The model could not account for the inconsistent changes in PSA levels in 3 of the 15 responsive patients at the end of treatment. Each validated personalized model was simulated under many hypothetical immunotherapy protocols to suggest alternative vaccination regimens. Personalized regimens predicted to enhance the effects of therapy differed among the patients.

Conclusions/Significance

Using a few initial measurements, we constructed robust patient-specific models of PCa immunotherapy, which were retrospectively validated by clinical trial results. Our results emphasize the potential value and feasibility of individualized model-suggested immunotherapy protocols.     

Amelioration of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in C57BL/6 mice by photobiomodulation induced by 670 nm light

Background

The approved immunomodulatory agents for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) are only partially effective. It is thought that the combination of immunomodulatory and neuroprotective strategies is necessary to prevent or reverse disease progression. Irradiation with far red/near infrared light, termed photobiomodulation, is a therapeutic approach for inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. Data suggests that near-infrared light functions through neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory mechanisms. We sought to investigate the clinical effect of photobiomodulation in the Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis (EAE) model of multiple sclerosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The clinical effect of photobiomodulation induced by 670 nm light was investigated in the C57BL/6 mouse model of EAE. Disease was induced with myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) according to standard laboratory protocol. Mice received 670 nm light or no light treatment (sham) administered as suppression and treatment protocols. 670 nm light reduced disease severity with both protocols compared to sham treated mice. Disease amelioration was associated with down-regulation of proinflammatory cytokines (interferon-γ, tumor necrosis factor-α) and up-regulation of anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-4, IL-10) in vitro and in vivo.

Conclusion/Significance

These studies document the therapeutic potential of photobiomodulation with 670 nm light in the EAE model, in part through modulation of the immune response.     

On Hepatitis C Virus Evolution: The Interaction between Virus and Host towards Treatment Outcome

Background

Hepatitis C is a disease spread throughout the world. Hepatitis C virus (HCV), the etiological agent of this disease, is a single-stranded positive RNA virus. Its genome encodes a single precursor protein that yields ten proteins after processing. NS5A, one of the non-structural viral proteins, is most associated with interferon-based therapy response, the approved treatment for hepatitis C in Brazil. HCV has a high mutation rate and therefore high variability, which may be important for evading the immune system and response to therapy. The aim of this study was to analyze the evolution of NS5A quasispecies before, during, and after treatment in patients infected with HCV genotype 3a who presented different therapy responses.

Methods

Viral RNA was extracted, cDNA was synthesized, the NS5A region was amplified and cloned, and 15 clones from each time-point were sequenced. The sequences were analyzed for evolutionary history, genetic diversity and selection.

Results

This analysis shows that the viral population that persists after treatment for most non-responder patients is present in before-treatment samples, suggesting it is adapted to evade treatment. In contrast, the population found in before treatment samples from most end-of-treatment responder patients either are selected out or appears in low frequency after relapse, therefore changing the population structure. The exceptions illustrate the uniqueness of the evolutionary process, and therefore the treatment resistance process, in each patient.

Conclusion

Although evolutionary behavior throughout treatment showed that each patient presented different population dynamics unrelated to therapy outcome, it seems that the viral population from non-responders that resists the treatment already had strains that could evade therapy before it started.     

Month 2 Culture Status and Treatment Duration as Predictors of Tuberculosis Relapse Risk in a Meta-Regression Model

Background

New drugs and regimens with the potential to transform tuberculosis treatment are presently in early stage clinical trials.

Objective

The goal of the present study was to infer the required duration of these treatments.

Method

A meta-regression model was developed to predict relapse risk using treatment duration and month 2 sputum culture positive rate as predictors, based on published historical data from 24 studies describing 58 regimens in 7793 patients. Regimens in which rifampin was administered for the first 2 months but not subsequently were excluded. The model treated study as a random effect.

Results

The model predicted that new regimens of 4 or 5 months duration with rates of culture positivity after 2 months of 1% or 3%, would yield relapse rates of 4.0% or 4.1%, respectively. In both cases, the upper limit of the 2-sided 80% prediction interval for relapse for a hypothetical trial with 680 subjects per arm was <10%. Analysis using this model of published month 2 data for moxifloxacin-containing regimens indicated they would result in relapse rates similar to standard therapy only if administered for ≥5 months.

Conclusions

This model is proposed to inform the required duration of treatment of new TB regimens, potentially hastening their accelerated approval by several years.     

Tuberculosis Treatment in HIV Infected Ugandans with CD4 Counts >350 Cells/mm3 Reduces Immune Activation with No Effect on HIV Load or CD4 Count

Background

Both HIV and TB cause a state of heightened immune activation. Immune activation in HIV is associated with progression to AIDS. Prior studies, focusing on persons with advanced HIV, have shown no decline in markers of cellular activation in response to TB therapy alone.

Methodology

This prospective cohort study, composed of participants within a larger phase 3 open-label randomized controlled clinical trial, measured the impact of TB treatment on immune activation in persons with non-advanced HIV infection (CD4>350 cells/mm³) and pulmonary TB. HIV load, CD4 count, and markers of immune activation (CD38 and HLA-DR on CD4 and CD8 T cells) were measured prior to starting, during, and for 6 months after completion of standard 6 month anti-tuberculosis (TB) therapy in 38 HIV infected Ugandans with smear and culture confirmed pulmonary TB.

Results

Expression of CD38, and co-expression of CD38 and HLA-DR, on CD8 cells declined significantly within 3 months of starting standard TB therapy in the absence of anti-retroviral therapy, and remained suppressed for 6 months after completion of therapy. In contrast, HIV load and CD4 count remained unchanged throughout the study period.

Conclusion

TB therapy leads to measurable decreases in immune activation in persons with HIV/TB co-infection and CD4 counts >350 cells/mm³.     

A Physiologically-Motivated Compartment-Based Model of the Effect of Inhaled Hypertonic Saline on Mucociliary Clearance and Liquid Transport in Cystic Fibrosis

Background

Cystic Fibrosis (CF) lung disease is characterized by liquid hyperabsorption, airway surface dehydration, and impaired mucociliary clearance (MCC). Herein, we present a compartment-based mathematical model of the airway that extends the resolution of functional imaging data.

Methods

Using functional imaging data to inform our model, we developed a system of mechanism-motivated ordinary differential equations to describe the mucociliary clearance and absorption of aerosolized radiolabeled particle and small molecules probes from human subjects with and without CF. We also utilized a novel imaging metric in vitro to gauge the fraction of airway epithelial cells that have functional ciliary activity.

Results

This model, and its incorporated kinetic rate parameters, captures the MCC and liquid dynamics of the hyperabsorptive state in CF airways and the mitigation of that state by hypertonic saline treatment.

Conclusions

We postulate, based on the model structure and its ability to capture clinical patient data, that patients with CF have regions of airway with diminished MCC function that can be recruited with hypertonic saline treatment. In so doing, this model structure not only makes a case for durable osmotic agents used in lung-region specific treatments, but also may provide a possible clinical endpoint, the fraction of functional ciliated airway.     

Understanding measurements of vitality in patients with chronic kidney disease: connecting a quality-of-life scale to daily activities

Background

Many patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) suffer from fatigue caused by anemia, but that anemia can be reversed. Successful treatment can be measured as a decrease in fatigue and an increase in energy or vitality, particularly on the vitality (VT) subscale of the SF-36. Changes in VT scores are most commonly interpreted in terms of minimally important differences or standardized effect sizes, but neither a minimally important difference nor a standardized effect size provides information about how patients’ activities are affected. Therefore, we analyzed the association between differences in VT scores and a variable that is meaningful to patients and to society the frequency of going out.

Study Design

Questionnaire survey. Analyses of differences among participants at bseline, and analyses of differences within participants over time.

Setting and Participants

CKD patients who were not on dialysis and were involved in a study of anti-anemia therapy.

Predictor

VT scores.

Outcome

Frequency of going out.

Measurements

VT scores and the frequency of going out.

Results

At baseline, higher VT scores and younger age were associated with going out more often, while sex and the presence of diabetic nephropathy were not associated with the frequency of going out. Greater changes in VT scores over time were associated with greater changes in the frequency of going out, in univariate and multivariate analyses.

Conclusions

At baseline, VT was associated with the frequency of going out. Increases in VT were also associated with increases in the frequency of going out. These results show how VT scores can be linked to daily activities that are important to individual patients and to society.     

The Efficacy and Adverse Reaction of Bleeding of Clopidogrel plus Aspirin as Compared to Aspirin Alone after Stroke or TIA: A Systematic Review

Background and Purpose

Given the high risk of stroke after TIA (transient ischemia attack) or stroke and the adverse reaction of bleeding of antiplatelets, we undertook a meta-analysis, reviewed randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing aspirin plus clopidogrel with aspirin alone to determine the efficacy and adverse reaction of bleeding of the two protocols in the prevention of stroke.

Methods

We analyzed the incidences of stroke, bleeding and severe bleeding by using fixed-effect model or random-effect model on the basis of the result of heterogeneity test.

Results

Five qualified RCTs satisfied the inclusion criteria. We found that treatment with aspirin plus clopidogrel was associated with lower incidence of stroke (Risk Ratio (RR), 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.47 to 0.93), higher incidence of bleeding (RR, 1.75, 95% CI, 1.48 to 2.05) as compared with aspirin-alone treatment. In terms of severe bleeding, no statistical difference existed between them (RR, 2.21, 95% CI, 0.25 to 19.52).

Conclusion

The combined use of aspirin and clopidogrel is more effective than aspirin alone for patients with previous TIA or stroke for the prevention of stroke, with risk of bleeding being higher. No statistical difference was found in severe bleeding between the two treatment protocols.     

Mathematical Modeling of Triphasic Viral Dynamics in Patients with HBeAg-Positive Chronic Hepatitis B Showing Response to 24-Week Clevudine Therapy

Background

Modeling of short-term viral dynamics of hepatitis B with traditional biphasic model might be insufficient to explain long-term viral dynamics. The aim was to develop a novel method of mathematical modeling to shed light on the dissociation between early and long-term dynamics in previous studies.

Methods

We investigated the viral decay pattern in 50 patients from the phase III clinical trial of 24-week clevudine therapy, who showed virological response and HBsAg decline. Immune effectors were added as a new compartment in the model equations. We determined some parameter values in the model using the non-linear least square minimization method.

Results

Median baseline viral load was 8.526 Log₁₀copies/mL, and on-treatment viral load decline was 5.683 Log₁₀copies/mL. The median half-life of free virus was 24.89 hours. The median half-life of infected hepatocytes was 7.39 days. The viral decay patterns were visualized as triphasic curves with decreasing slopes over time: fastest decay in the first phase; slowest in the third phase; the second phase in between.

Conclusions

In the present study, mathematical modeling of hepatitis B in patients with virological response and HBsAg decline during 24-week antiviral therapy showed triphasic viral dynamics with direct introduction of immune effectors as a new compartment, which was thought to reflect the reduction of clearance rate of infected cells over time. This modeling method seems more appropriate to describe long-term viral dynamics compared to the biphasic model, and needs further validation.     

CD100 Up-Regulation Induced by Interferon-α on B Cells Is Related to Hepatitis C Virus Infection

Objectives

CD100, also known as Sema4D, is a member of the semaphorin family and has important regulatory functions that promote immune cell activation and responses. The role of CD100 expression on B cells in immune regulation during chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains unclear.

Materials and Methods

We longitudinally investigated the altered expression of CD100, its receptor CD72, and other activation markers CD69 and CD86 on B cells in 20 chronic HCV-infected patients before and after treatment with pegylated interferon-alpha (Peg-IFN-α) and ribavirin (RBV) by flow cytometry.

Results

The frequency of CD5⁺ B cells as well as the expression levels of CD100, CD69 and CD86 was significantly increased in chronic HCV patients and returned to normal in patients with sustained virological response after discontinuation of IFN-α/RBV therapy. Upon IFN-α treatment, CD100 expression on B cells and the two subsets was further up-regulated in patients who achieved early virological response, and this was confirmed by in vitro experiments. Moreover, the increased CD100 expression via IFN-α was inversely correlated with the decline of the HCV-RNA titer during early-phase treatment.

Conclusions

Peripheral B cells show an activated phenotype during chronic HCV infection. Moreover, IFN-α therapy facilitates the reversion of disrupted B cell homeostasis, and up-regulated expression of CD100 may be indirectly related to HCV clearance.     

The Potential Cost and Benefits of Raltegravir in Simplified Second-Line Therapy among HIV Infected Patients in Nigeria and South Africa

Background

There is an urgent need to improve the evidence base for provision of second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following first-line virological failure. This is particularly the case in Sub-Saharan Africa where 70% of all people living with HIV/AIDS (PHA) reside. The aim of this study was to simulate the potential risks and benefits of treatment simplification in second-line therapy compared to the current standard of care (SOC) in a lower-middle income and an upper-middle income country in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation model to compare outcomes associated with reducing treatment discontinuations between current SOC for second-line therapy in South Africa and Nigeria and an alternative regimen: ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) combined with raltegravir (RAL). We used published studies and collaborating sites to estimate efficacy, adverse effect and cost. Model outcomes were reported as incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2011 USD per quality adjusted life year ($/QALY) gained.

Results

Reducing treatment discontinuations with LPV/r+RAL resulted in an additional 0.4 discounted QALYs and increased the undiscounted life expectancy by 0.8 years per person compared to the current SOC. The average incremental cost was $6,525 per treated patient in Nigeria and $4,409 per treated patient in South Africa. The cost-effectiveness ratios were $16,302/QALY gained and $11,085/QALY gained for Nigeria and South Africa, respectively. Our results were sensitive to the probability of ART discontinuation and the unit cost for RAL.

Conclusions

The combination of raltegravir and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir was projected to be cost-effective in South Africa. However, at its current price, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in Nigeria.     

Development and Evaluation of a Pilot Nurse Case Management Model to Address Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and HIV in South Africa

Setting

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) unit in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Objective

To develop and evaluate a nurse case management model and intervention using the tenets of the Chronic Care Model to manage treatment for MDR-TB patients with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection.

Design

A quasi-experimental pilot programme utilizing a nurse case manager to manage care for 40 hospitalized MDR-TB patients, 70% HIV co-infected, during the intensive phase of MDR-TB treatment. Patients were followed for six months to compare proximal outcomes identified in the model between the pre- and post-intervention period.

Results

The greatest percent differences between baseline and six-month MDR-TB proximal outcomes were seen in the following three areas: baseline symptom evaluation on treatment initiation (95% improvement), baseline and monthly laboratory evaluations completed per guidelines (75% improvement), and adverse drug reactions acted upon by medical and/or nursing intervention (75% improvement).

Conclusion

Improvements were identified in guideline-based treatment and monitoring of adverse drug reactions following implementation of the nurse case management intervention. Further study is required to determine if the intervention introduced in this model will ultimately result in improvements in final MDR-TB treatment outcomes.     

Tracking Functional Brain Changes in Patients with Depression under Psychodynamic Psychotherapy Using Individualized Stimuli

Objective

Neurobiological models of depression posit limbic hyperactivity that should normalize after successful treatment. For psychotherapy, though, brain changes in patients with depression show substantial variability. Two critical issues in relevant studies concern the use of unspecific stimulation experiments and relatively short treatment protocols. Therefore changes in brain reactions to individualized stimuli were studied in patients with depression after eight months of psychodynamic psychotherapy.

Methods

18 unmedicated patients with recurrent major depressive disorder were confronted with individualized and clinically derived content in a functional MRI experiment before (T1) and after eight months (T2) of psychodynamic therapy. A control group of 17 healthy subjects was also tested twice without intervention. The experimental stimuli were sentences describing each participant''s dysfunctional interpersonal relationship patterns derived from clinical interviews based on Operationalized Psychodynamic Diagnostics (OPD).

Results

At T1 patients showed enhanced activation compared to controls in several limbic and subcortical regions, including amygdala and basal ganglia, when confronted with OPD sentences. At T2 the differences in brain activity between patients and controls were no longer apparent. Concurrently, patients had improved significantly in depression scores.

Conclusions

Using ecologically valid stimuli, this study supports the model of limbic hyperactivity in depression that normalizes after treatment. Without a control group of untreated patients measured twice, though, changes in patients'' brain activity could also be attributed to other factors than psychodynamic therapy.     

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate

Introduction

As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed.

Methods

We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers.

Results

We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18–73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%–6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services.

Conclusion

The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.     

Resveratrol Possesses Protective Effects in a Pristane-Induced Lupus Mouse Model

Background

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a multisystemic autoimmune disease characterized by the production of autoantibodies. To date, no therapy has been found to satisfactorily treat SLE. SIRT1 deficiency results in the development of an autoimmune syndrome in mice, including a high titer of anti-nuclear antibody in serum, immunoglobulin deposition in the kidney, and immune complex glomerulonephritis. Resveratrol is an activator of SIRT1 and possesses anti-inflammation and immune-regulatory properties.

Objective

To evaluate the preventative effects of resveratrol on a pristane-induced lupus animal model and assess its putative immune modulation effects.

Methods

BALB/c mice received a single intraperitoneal injection of 0.5 ml of pristane on day 1 and then various doses of resveratrol were given to the mice daily starting on day 2 and continuing for seven months. The autoantibodies in serum and supernatants were measured. Single cells isolated from spleen, isolated CD4+ T cells, and CD19+ B cells were cultured with or without resveratrol in vitro and assessed by flow cytometry.

Results

Resveratrol attenuated proteinuria, immunoglobuin depositon in kidney, and glomerulonephritis as well as IgG1 and IgG2a in serum in pristane-induced lupus mice. Resveratrol also suppressed CD69 and CD71 expression on CD4+ T cells as well as CD4+ T cell proliferation, induced CD4+ T cell apoptosis, and decreased CD4 IFNγ⁺ Th1 cells and the ratio of Th1/Th2 cells in vitro. In vitro antibody production and proliferation of B cells were also inhibited.

Conclusion

Resveratrol possesses protective effects in pristane-induced lupus mice and may represent a novel approach for the management of SLE.     

Assessment of total hepatitis C virus (HCV) core protein in HCV-related mixed cryoglobulinemia

Introduction

In hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related mixed cryoglobulinemia (MCG), the nonenveloped HCV core protein (HCV-Cp) is a constituent of the characteristic cold-precipitating immune complexes (ICs). A possible correlation between HCV-Cp, virologic, laboratory, and clinical parameters in both untreated MCG patients and those undergoing specific treatment was explored.

Methods

HCV-Cp was quantified by a fully automated immune assay. Correlations between HCV-Cp and HCV RNA, cryocrit, and virus genotype (gt) were investigated in 102 chronically HCV-infected MCG patients.

Results

HCV-Cp concentrations strongly correlated with HCV RNA levels in baseline samples. An average ratio of 1,425 IU and 12,850 IU HCV RNA per picogram HCV-Cp was estimated in HCV gt-1 and gt-2 patients, respectively. This equation allowed us to estimate that, on average, HCV-Cp was associated with the viral genome in only 3.4% of the former and in 35% of the latter group of patients. The direct relation between HCV-Cp and the cryocrit level suggests that the protein directly influences the amount of cryoprecipitate. Although the therapy with rituximab (RTX) as a single agent resulted in the enhancement of HCV-Cp levels, in patients treated with RTX in combination with a specific antiviral therapy (pegylated interferon-α plus ribavirin), the prompt and effective clearance of HCV-Cp was documented.

Conclusions

Our data provide evidence that HCV-Cp has a direct effect on the cold-precipitation process in a virus genotype-dependence in HCV-related MCG patients.     

The Impact of Different Antibiotic Regimens on the Emergence of Antimicrobial-Resistant Bacteria

Backgroud

The emergence and ongoing spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria is a major public health threat. Infections caused by antimicrobial-resistant bacteria are associated with substantially higher rates of morbidity and mortality compared to infections caused by antimicrobial-susceptible bacteria. The emergence and spread of these bacteria is complex and requires incorporating numerous interrelated factors which clinical studies cannot adequately address.

Methods/Principal Findings

A model is created which incorporates several key factors contributing to the emergence and spread of resistant bacteria including the effects of the immune system, acquisition of resistance genes and antimicrobial exposure. The model identifies key strategies which would limit the emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacterial strains. Specifically, the simulations show that early initiation of antimicrobial therapy and combination therapy with two antibiotics prevents the emergence of resistant bacteria, whereas shorter courses of therapy and sequential administration of antibiotics promote the emergence of resistant strains.

Conclusions/Significance

The principal findings suggest that (i) shorter lengths of antibiotic therapy and early interruption of antibiotic therapy provide an advantage for the resistant strains, (ii) combination therapy with two antibiotics prevents the emergence of resistance strains in contrast to sequential antibiotic therapy, and (iii) early initiation of antibiotics is among the most important factors preventing the emergence of resistant strains. These findings provide new insights into strategies aimed at optimizing the administration of antimicrobials for the treatment of infections and the prevention of the emergence of antimicrobial resistance.