Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers'' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.     

Regulation of apoptotic mediators reveals dynamic responses to thermal stress in the reef building coral Acropora millepora

Background

Mass coral bleaching is increasing in scale and frequency across the world''s coral reefs and is being driven primarily by increased levels of thermal stress arising from global warming. In order to understand the impacts of projected climate change upon corals reefs, it is important to elucidate the underlying cellular mechanisms that operate during coral bleaching and subsequent mortality. In this respect, increased apoptotic cell death activity is an important cellular process that is associated with the breakdown of the mutualistic symbiosis between the cnidarian host and their dinoflagellate symbionts.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The present study reports the impacts of different stressors (colchicine and heat stress) on three phases of apoptosis: (i) the potential initiation by differential expression of Bcl-2 members, (ii) the execution of apoptotic events by activation of caspase 3-like proteases and (iii) and finally, the cell disposal indicated by DNA fragmentation in the reef building coral Acropora millepora. In corals incubated with colchicine, an increase in caspase 3-like activity and DNA fragmentation was associated with a relative down-regulation of Bcl-2, suggesting that the initiation of apoptosis may be mediated by the suppression of an anti-apoptotic mechanism. In contrast, in the early steps of heat stress, the induction of caspase-dependent apoptosis was related to a relative up-regulation of Bcl-2 consecutively followed by a delayed decrease in apoptosis activity.

Conclusions/Significance

In the light of these results, we propose a model of heat stress in coral hosts whereby increasing temperatures engage activation of caspase 3-dependent apoptosis in cells designated for termination, but also the onset of a delayed protective response involving overexpression of Bcl-2 in surviving cells. This mitigating response to thermal stress could conceivably be an important regulatory mechanism for cell survival in corals exposed to sudden environmental changes.     

Unprecedented Mass Bleaching and Loss of Coral across 12° of Latitude in Western Australia in 2010–11

Background

Globally, coral bleaching has been responsible for a significant decline in both coral cover and diversity over the past two decades. During the summer of 2010–11, anomalous large-scale ocean warming induced unprecedented levels of coral bleaching accompanied by substantial storminess across more than 12° of latitude and 1200 kilometers of coastline in Western Australia (WA).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Extreme La-Niña conditions caused extensive warming of waters and drove considerable storminess and cyclonic activity across WA from October 2010 to May 2011. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements recorded anomalies of up to 5°C above long-term averages. Benthic surveys quantified the extent of bleaching at 10 locations across four regions from tropical to temperate waters. Bleaching was recorded in all locations across regions and ranged between 17% (±5.5) in the temperate Perth region, to 95% (±3.5) in the Exmouth Gulf of the tropical Ningaloo region. Coincident with high levels of bleaching, three cyclones passed in close proximity to study locations around the time of peak temperatures. Follow-up surveys revealed spatial heterogeneity in coral cover change with four of ten locations recording significant loss of coral cover. Relative decreases ranged between 22%–83.9% of total coral cover, with the greatest losses in the Exmouth Gulf.

Conclusions/Significance

The anomalous thermal stress of 2010–11 induced mass bleaching of corals along central and southern WA coral reefs. Significant coral bleaching was observed at multiple locations across the tropical-temperate divide spanning more than 1200 km of coastline. Resultant spatially patchy loss of coral cover under widespread and high levels of bleaching and cyclonic activity, suggests a degree of resilience for WA coral communities. However, the spatial extent of bleaching casts some doubt over hypotheses suggesting that future impacts to coral reefs under forecast warming regimes may in part be mitigated by southern thermal refugia.     

Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099

Background

Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location''s suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, “safe winter chill”, the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50–75% by mid-21^st century, and 90–100% by late century.

Conclusions/Significance

Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21^st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.     

Severe 2010 cold-water event caused unprecedented mortality to corals of the Florida reef tract and reversed previous survivorship patterns

Background

Coral reefs are facing increasing pressure from natural and anthropogenic stressors that have already caused significant worldwide declines. In January 2010, coral reefs of Florida, United States, were impacted by an extreme cold-water anomaly that exposed corals to temperatures well below their reported thresholds (16°C), causing rapid coral mortality unprecedented in spatial extent and severity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Reef surveys were conducted from Martin County to the Lower Florida Keys within weeks of the anomaly. The impacts recorded were catastrophic and exceeded those of any previous disturbances in the region. Coral mortality patterns were directly correlated to in-situ and satellite-derived cold-temperature metrics. These impacts rival, in spatial extent and intensity, the impacts of the well-publicized warm-water bleaching events around the globe. The mean percent coral mortality recorded for all species and subregions was 11.5% in the 2010 winter, compared to 0.5% recorded in the previous five summers, including years like 2005 where warm-water bleaching was prevalent. Highest mean mortality (15%–39%) was documented for inshore habitats where temperatures were <11°C for prolonged periods. Increases in mortality from previous years were significant for 21 of 25 coral species, and were 1–2 orders of magnitude higher for most species.

Conclusions/Significance

The cold-water anomaly of January 2010 caused the worst coral mortality on record for the Florida Reef Tract, highlighting the potential catastrophic impacts that unusual but extreme climatic events can have on the persistence of coral reefs. Moreover, habitats and species most severely affected were those found in high-coral cover, inshore, shallow reef habitats previously considered the “oases” of the region, having escaped declining patterns observed for more offshore habitats. Thus, the 2010 cold-water anomaly not only caused widespread coral mortality but also reversed prior resistance and resilience patterns that will take decades to recover.     

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate‐related temperature stress

Thermal‐stress events that cause coral bleaching and mortality have recently increased in frequency and severity. Yet few studies have explored conditions that moderate coral bleaching. Given that high light and high ocean temperature together cause coral bleaching, we explore whether corals at turbid localities, with reduced light, are less likely to bleach during thermal‐stress events than corals at other localities. We analyzed coral bleaching, temperature, and turbidity data from 3,694 sites worldwide with a Bayesian model and found that K_d490, a measurement positively related to turbidity, between 0.080 and 0.127 reduced coral bleaching during thermal‐stress events. Approximately 12% of the world's reefs exist within this “moderating turbidity” range, and 30% of reefs that have moderating turbidity are in the Coral Triangle. We suggest that these turbid nearshore environments may provide some refuge through climate change, but these reefs will need high conservation status to sustain them close to dense human populations.     

Effects of light, food availability and temperature stress on the function of photosystem II and photosystem I of coral symbionts

Background

Reef corals are heterotrophic coelenterates that achieve high productivity through their photosynthetic dinoflagellate symbionts. Excessive seawater temperature destabilises this symbiosis and causes corals to “bleach,” lowering their photosynthetic capacity. Bleaching poses a serious threat to the persistence of coral reefs on a global scale. Despite expanding research on the causes of bleaching, the mechanisms remain a subject of debate.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study determined how light and food availability modulate the effects of temperature stress on photosynthesis in two reef coral species. We quantified the activities of Photosystem II, Photosystem I and whole chain electron transport under combinations of normal and stressful growth temperatures, moderate and high light levels and the presence or absence of feeding of the coral hosts. Our results show that PS1 function is comparatively robust against temperature stress in both species, whereas PS2 and whole chain electron transport are susceptible to temperature stress. In the symbiotic dinoflagellates of Stylophora pistillata the contents of chlorophyll and major photosynthetic complexes were primarily affected by food availability. In Turbinaria reniformis growth temperature was the dominant influence on the contents of the photosynthetic complexes. In both species feeding the host significantly protected photosynthetic function from high temperature stress.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings support the photoinhibition model of coral bleaching and demonstrate that PS1 is not a major site for thermal damage during bleaching events. Feeding mitigates bleaching in two scleractinian corals, so that reef responses to temperature stresses will likely be influenced by the coinciding availabilities of prey for the host.     

Caribbean corals in crisis: record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005

Background

The rising temperature of the world''s oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers'' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles.

Conclusions/Significance

Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch''s Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.     

Corals escape bleaching in regions that recently and historically experienced frequent thermal stress

The response of coral-reef ecosystems to contemporary thermal stress may be in part a consequence of recent or historical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability. To test this hypothesis, we examined whether: (i) there was a relationship between the historical frequency of SST variability and stress experienced during the most recent thermal-stress events (in 1998 and 2005–2006) and (ii) coral reefs that historically experienced frequent thermal anomalies were less likely to experience coral bleaching during these recent thermal-stress events. Examination of nine detrended coral δ¹⁸O and Sr/Ca anomaly records revealed a high- (5.7-year) and low-frequency (>54-year) mode of SST variability. There was a positive relationship between the historical frequency of SST anomalies and recent thermal stress; sites historically dominated by the high-frequency mode experienced greater thermal stress than other sites during both events, and showed extensive coral bleaching in 1998. Nonetheless, in 2005–2006, corals at sites dominated by high-frequency variability showed reduced bleaching, despite experiencing high thermal stress. This bleaching resistance was most likely a consequence of rapid directional selection that followed the extreme thermal event of 1998. However, the benefits of regional resistance could come at the considerable cost of shifts in coral species composition.     

Temperature‐driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985–2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether or not MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature‐driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of an MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggest that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.     

Harnessing Natural Recovery Processes to Improve Restoration Outcomes: An Experimental Assessment of Sponge-Mediated Coral Reef Restoration

Background

Restoration is increasingly implemented to reestablish habitat structure and function following physical anthropogenic disturbance, but scientific knowledge of effectiveness of methods lags behind demand for guidelines. On coral reefs, recovery is largely dependent on coral reestablishment, and substratum stability is critical to the survival of coral fragments and recruits. Concrete is often used to immobilize rubble, but its ecological performance has not been rigorously evaluated, and restoration has generally fallen short of returning degraded habitat to pre-disturbance conditions. Fragments of erect branching sponges mediate reef recovery by facilitating rubble consolidation, yet such natural processes have been largely overlooked in restoring reefs.

Methods

On two reefs in Curacao, four treatments - coral rubble alone, rubble seeded with sponge fragments, rubble bound by concrete, and concrete “rubble” bound by concrete - were monitored over four years to investigate rubble consolidation with and without sponges and the ecological performance of treatments in terms of the number and diversity of coral recruits. Species specific rates of sponge fragment attachment to rubble, donor sponge growth and tissue replacement, and fragment survival inside rubble piles were also investigated to evaluate sponge species performance and determine rates for sustainably harvesting tissue.

Findings/Significance

Rubble piles seeded with sponges retained height and shape to a significantly greater degree, lost fewer replicates to water motion, and were significantly more likely to be consolidated over time than rubble alone. Significantly more corals recruited to sponge-seeded rubble than to all other treatments. Coral diversity was also greatest for rubble with sponges and it was the only treatment to which framework building corals recruited. Differences in overall sponge species performance suggest species selection is important to consider. Employing organisms that jump start successional pathways and facilitate recovery can significantly improve restoration outcomes; however, best practices require techniques be tailored to each system.     

Thermal stress induces persistently altered coral reef fish assemblages

Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large‐scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long‐term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23‐year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for >15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re‐establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.     

Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes

Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1–3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33–35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as “critically endangered”. We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world''s most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.     

Can Serum Levels of Alkaline Phosphatase and Phosphate Predict Cardiovascular Diseases and Total Mortality in Individuals with Preserved Renal Function? A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

It is demonstrated that elevated serum levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and phosphate indicate a higher risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and total mortality in population with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it remains unclear whether this association exists in people with normal or preserved renal function.

Method

Clinical trials were searched from Embase and PubMed from inception to 2013 December using the keywords “ALP”, “phosphate”, “CVD”, “mortality” and so on, and finally 24 trials with a total of 147634 patients were included in this study. Dose-response and semi-parametric meta-analyses were performed.

Results

A linear association of serum levels of ALP and phosphate with risks of coronary heart disease (CHD) events, CVD events and deaths was identified. The relative risk(RR)of ALP for CVD deaths was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.04). The RR of phosphate for CVD deaths and events was 1.05 (95% CI, 1.02–1.09) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03–1.06), respectively. A non-linear association of ALP and phosphate with total mortality was identified. Compared with the reference category of ALP and phosphate, the pooled RR of ALP for total mortality was 1.57 (95% CI, 1.27–1.95) for the high ALP group, while the RR of phosphate for total mortality was 1.33 (95% CI, 1.21–1.46) for the high phosphate group. It was observed in subgroup analysis that higher levels of serum ALP and phosphate seemed to indicate a higher mortality rate in diabetic patients and those having previous CVD. The higher total mortality rate was more obvious in the men and Asians with high ALP.

Conclusion

A non-linear relationship exists between serum levels of ALP and phosphate and risk of total mortality. There appears to be a positive association of serum levels of ALP/phosphate with total mortality in people with normal or preserved renal function, while the relationship between ALP and CVD is still ambiguous.     

When What's Left Is Right: Visuomotor Transformations in an Aged Population

Background

There has been little consensus as to whether age-related visuomotor adaptation effects are readily observable. Some studies have found slower adaptation, and/or reduced overall levels. In contrast, other methodologically similar studies have found no such evidence of aging effects on visuomotor adaptation. A crucial early step in successful adaptation is the ability to perform the necessary transformation to complete the task at hand. The present study describes the use of a viewing window paradigm to examine the effects of aging in a visuomotor transformation task.

Methods

Two groups of participants, a young adult control group (age range 18–33 years old, mean age = 22) and an older adult group (age range 62–74, mean age = 68) completed a viewing window task that was controlled by the user via a computer touchscreen. Four visuomotor “flip” conditions were created by varying the relationship between the participant''s movement, and the resultant on-screen movement of the viewing window: 1) No flip 2) X-Axis and Y-axis body movements resulted in the opposite direction of movement of the viewing window. In each of the 3) Flip-X and 4) Flip-Y conditions, the solitary X- or Y-axes were reversed. Response times and movement of the window were recorded.

Conclusions

Older participants demonstrated impairments in performing a required visuomotor transformation, as evidenced by more complex scanning patterns and longer scanning times when compared to younger control participants. These results provide additional evidence that the mechanisms involved in visuomotor transformation are negatively affected by age.     

Association of Lifecourse Socioeconomic Status with Chronic Inflammation and Type 2 Diabetes Risk: The Whitehall II Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Socioeconomic adversity in early life has been hypothesized to “program” a vulnerable phenotype with exaggerated inflammatory responses, so increasing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in adulthood. The aim of this study is to test this hypothesis by assessing the extent to which the association between lifecourse socioeconomic status and type 2 diabetes incidence is explained by chronic inflammation.

Methods and Findings

We use data from the British Whitehall II study, a prospective occupational cohort of adults established in 1985. The inflammatory markers C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 were measured repeatedly and type 2 diabetes incidence (new cases) was monitored over an 18-year follow-up (from 1991–1993 until 2007–2009). Our analytical sample consisted of 6,387 non-diabetic participants (1,818 women), of whom 731 (207 women) developed type 2 diabetes over the follow-up. Cumulative exposure to low socioeconomic status from childhood to middle age was associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes in adulthood (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.96, 95% confidence interval: 1.48–2.58 for low cumulative lifecourse socioeconomic score and HR = 1.55, 95% confidence interval: 1.26–1.91 for low-low socioeconomic trajectory). 25% of the excess risk associated with cumulative socioeconomic adversity across the lifecourse and 32% of the excess risk associated with low-low socioeconomic trajectory was attributable to chronically elevated inflammation (95% confidence intervals 16%–58%).

Conclusions

In the present study, chronic inflammation explained a substantial part of the association between lifecourse socioeconomic disadvantage and type 2 diabetes. Further studies should be performed to confirm these findings in population-based samples, as the Whitehall II cohort is not representative of the general population, and to examine the extent to which social inequalities attributable to chronic inflammation are reversible. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs

For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO₂ emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.     

The role of grasslands in food security and climate change

Background

Grasslands are a major part of the global ecosystem, covering 37 % of the earth''s terrestrial area. For a variety of reasons, mostly related to overgrazing and the resulting problems of soil erosion and weed encroachment, many of the world''s natural grasslands are in poor condition and showing signs of degradation. This review examines their contribution to global food supply and to combating climate change.

Scope

Grasslands make a significant contribution to food security through providing part of the feed requirements of ruminants used for meat and milk production. Globally, this is more important in food energy terms than pig meat and poultry meat. Grasslands are considered to have the potential to play a key role in greenhouse gas mitigation, particularly in terms of global carbon storage and further carbon sequestration. It is estimated that grazing land management and pasture improvement (e.g. through managing grazing intensity, improved productivity, etc) have a global technical mitigation potential of almost 1·5 Gt CO₂ equivalent in 2030, with additional mitigation possible from restoration of degraded lands. Milk and meat production from grassland systems in temperate regions has similar emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of product as mixed farming systems in temperate regions, and, if carbon sinks in grasslands are taken into account, grassland-based production systems can be as efficient as high-input systems from a greenhouse gas perspective.

Conclusions

Grasslands are important for global food supply, contributing to ruminant milk and meat production. Extra food will need to come from the world''s existing agricultural land base (including grasslands) as the total area of agricultural land has remained static since 1991. Ruminants are efficient converters of grass into humanly edible energy and protein and grassland-based food production can produce food with a comparable carbon footprint as mixed systems. Grasslands are a very important store of carbon, and they are continuing to sequester carbon with considerable potential to increase this further. Grassland adaptation to climate change will be variable, with possible increases or decreases in productivity and increases or decreases in soil carbon stores.     

Beneficial Effect of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy and Antiretroviral Therapy on the Incidence of Tuberculosis in People Living with HIV in Ethiopia

Background

IPT with or without concomitant administration of ART is a proven intervention to prevent tuberculosis among PLHIV. However, there are few data on the routine implementation of this intervention and its effectiveness in settings with limited resources.

Objectives

To measure the level of uptake and effectiveness of IPT in reducing tuberculosis incidence in a cohort of PLHIV enrolled into HIV care between 2007 and 2010 in five hospitals in southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cohort analysis of electronic patient database was done. The independent effects of no intervention, “IPT-only,” “IPT-before-ART,” “IPT-and-ART started simultaneously,” “ART-only,” and “IPT-after-ART” on TB incidence were measured. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to assess association of treatment categories with TB incidence.

Results

Of 7,097 patients, 867 were excluded because they were transferred-in; a further 823 (12%) were excluded from the study because they were either identified to have TB through screening (292 patients) or were on TB treatment (531). Among the remaining 5,407 patients observed, IPT had been initiated for 39% of eligible patients. Children, male sex, advanced disease, and those in Pre-ART were less likely to be initiated on IPT. The overall TB incidence was 2.6 per 100 person-years. As compared to those with no intervention, use of “IPT-only” (aHR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.19–0.66) and “ART-only” (aHR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.24–0.43) were associated with significant reduction in TB incidence rate. Combining ART and IPT had a more profound effect. Starting IPT-before-ART (aHR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.08–0.42) or simultaneously with ART (aHR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.10–0.42) provided further reduction of TB at ∼80%.

Conclusions

IPT was found to be effective in reducing TB incidence, independently and with concomitant ART, under programme conditions in resource-limited settings. The level of IPT provision and effectiveness in reducing TB was encouraging in the study setting. Scaling up and strengthening IPT service in addition to ART can have beneficial effect in reducing TB burden among PLHIV in settings with high TB/HIV burden.