Pesticide Acute Toxicity Is a Better Correlate of U.S. Grassland Bird Declines than Agricultural Intensification

Common agricultural birds are in decline, both in Europe and in North America. Evidence from Europe suggests that agricultural intensification and, for some species, the indirect effects of pesticides mediated through a loss of insect food resource is in part responsible. On a state-by-state basis for the conterminous Unites States (U.S.), we looked at several agronomic variables to predict the number of grassland species increasing or declining according to breeding bird surveys conducted between 1980 and 2003. Best predictors of species declines were the lethal risk from insecticide use modeled from pesticide impact studies, followed by the loss of cropped pasture. Loss of permanent pasture or simple measures of agricultural intensification such as the proportion of land under crop or the proportion of farmland treated with herbicides did not explain bird declines as well. Because the proportion of farmland treated with insecticides, and more particularly the lethal risk to birds from the use of current insecticides feature so prominently in the best models, this suggests that, in the U.S. at least, pesticide toxicity to birds should be considered as an important factor in grassland bird declines.     

Identifying the ecological causes of long-term declines of wetland-dependent birds in an urbanizing landscape

Many wetland-dependent birds are thought to be experiencing significant population declines, although population trend data for this suite of birds are rare and the causes of declines poorly understood. We used a 26-year dataset (1980–2005) of wetland bird abundance and distribution among 196 wetlands in northeastern Illinois (i.e., Chicago and its suburbs) to evaluate population trends and identify underlying ecological causes. We used aerial photography and GIS to quantify wetland habitat structure (i.e., the extent of emergent vegetation) and changes in surrounding land use. We then evaluated how changes in land use affected the structure of wetlands and ultimately wetland bird populations. Of the 12 species analyzed, seven experienced significant declines, three showed non-significant declines, and two experienced significant increases. Population declines could not be attributed to wetland loss because none of our wetlands were destroyed. Concurrent research at these wetlands also suggests that neither low adult survival nor poor reproductive success were responsible for the declines. Increased development within 2 km of wetlands, however, was associated with extreme changes in the structure of wetlands. Wetlands tended either to lose much of their vegetation and become open ponds, or become rank stands of dense vegetation. Both changes made wetlands less suitable for many wetland birds. While “no net loss” legislation may protect wetlands from being filled or drained, development near wetlands appears to be altering hydrology, resulting in habitat degradation and population declines of several wetland-dependent bird species.     

High Bird Species Diversity in Structurally Heterogeneous Farmland in Western Kenya

Tropical ecosystems are globally important for bird diversity. In many tropical regions, land‐use intensification has caused conversion of natural forests into human‐modified habitats, such as secondary forests and heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Despite previous research, the distribution of bird communities in these forest‐farmland mosaics is not well understood. To achieve a comprehensive understanding of bird diversity and community turnover in a human‐modified Kenyan landscape, we recorded bird communities at 20 sites covering the complete habitat gradient from forest (near natural forest, secondary forest) to farmland (subsistence farmland, sugarcane plantation) using point counts and distance sampling. Bird density and species richness were on average higher in farmland than in forest habitats. Within forest and farmland, bird density and species richness increased with vegetation structural diversity, i.e., were higher in near natural than in secondary forest and in subsistence farmland than in sugarcane plantations. Bird communities in forest and farmland habitats were very distinct and very few forest specialists occurred in farmland habitats. Moreover, insectivorous bird species declined in farmland habitats whereas carnivores and herbivores increased. Our study confirms that tropical farmlands can hardly accommodate forest specialist species. Contrary to most previous studies, our findings show that structurally rich tropical farmlands hold a surprisingly rich and distinct bird community that is threatened by conversion of subsistence farmland into sugarcane plantations. We conclude that conservation strategies in the tropics must go beyond rain forest protection and should integrate structurally heterogeneous agroecosystems into conservation plans that aim at maintaining the diverse bird communities of tropical forest‐farmland mosaics.     

Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends

Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations.     

Development of an agri-environment scheme option: seed-bearing crops for farmland birds

Winter mortality, resulting from reduced food supply during a period of agricultural intensification, is thought to have driven population declines for some farmland bird species. Planting of game crops has increased over this period in order to provide food and cover for gamebirds. We investigate the potential of this managed habitat for farmland songbird conservation, using intensive single-site studies, and an extensive national survey. Game crops were used more than other farmland habitats by a wide range of bird species. Kale and quinoa were used by many species, whereas maize was used by very few. Cereals such as triticale and millet were used by many species, including several not associated with brassicas such as kale. Crop species differed in the rate of seed shedding, and therefore in the amount of seed food that they provided through the winter. Crop location influenced use by some bird species, with crops close to hedges or other cover generally being favoured. Use of nitrogen fertilizer influenced seed yield, and therefore crop value as a source of food for birds. Our results suggest that, if managed and sited correctly, a combination of two or three crop species can provide a valuable winter food resource for many nationally declining farmland bird species, but further attention needs to be given to their agronomy. This form of management is now incorporated as an option within agri-environment schemes in England, Scotland and Wales. It enables farmers to apply existing skills to conservation and is compatible with their cultural values.     

Changes in bird populations on sample lowland English farms in relation to loss of hedgerows and other non-crop habitats

Farmland bird population trends were examined on a sample of lowland English farms to assess the relative importance of habitat loss and habitat degradation. Data were extracted from 11 farms surveyed by territory mapping between 1966 and 1986 as part of the British Trust for Ornithology's Common Birds Census. The population size of 38 bird species was quantified for each farm in each year. The extents of five non-crop habitats were measured at 4-yearly intervals on each farm. The farms were selected because some had undergone extensive removal of non-crop habitats while others had undergone little or none. Although declines were commonest on farms where the severest habitat loss had taken place, we found no evidence that habitat loss was the main factor causing population declines: all 11 farms had significant numbers of declining species, even where habitat loss was minimal. Furthermore, general linear modelling found no significant effects of habitat loss on population trends and principal-components analysis found limited effects of habitat extent on community composition. These results suggest that habitat loss is of secondary importance in causing farmland bird population declines. We suggest that other processes, such as habitat degradation, may have caused a baseline population decline in at least 10 farmland bird species and that declines may have been exacerbated by localised habitat loss. Received: 4 February 1998 / Accepted: 1 April 1998     

Geographic variation in the population trends of common breeding birds across central Europe

Recent declines of many European bird species have been linked with various environmental changes, especially land-use change and climate change. Since the intensity of these environmental changes varies among different countries, we can expect geographic variation in bird population trends. Here, we compared the population trends of bird species among neighbouring countries within central Europe (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland) between 1990 and 2016 and examined trait-associations with population trends at both national and international scales. We found that Denmark had the highest proportion of declining species while Switzerland had the lowest. Species associated with farmland had negative trends, but the effect size tended to differ among countries. A preference for higher temperature was positively associated with population trends and its effect size was similar among countries. Species that were increasing across all four countries were associated with forest; while species that were decreasing across all countries were long-distance migrants or farmland birds. Our results suggest that land-use change tends to be a more regionally variable driver of common bird population trends than climate change in central Europe. For species declining across all countries, international action plans could provide a framework for more efficient conservation. However, farmland birds likely need both, coordinated international action (e.g. through a green agricultural policy) to tackle their widespread declines as well as regionally different approaches to address varying national effect trajectories.     

Agricultural land-use and the spatial distribution of granivorous lowland farmland birds

Current agricultural practices are believed to have contributed to the declines of many farmland bird species, especially seed‐eaters, throughout Europe. We investigated associations between the spatial distribution of fourteen granivorous farmland bird species and agricultural land‐use in Britain, using breeding bird atlas data and national agricultural statistics. Analyses were spatially referenced by 10x10 km square and variation due to broad‐scale geography and spatial auto‐correlation was controlled for. Generalized linear modelling analyses were used to select models describing variation in distribution explained by the available land‐use variables. The results show that relationships between distribution and agriculture tend to be species‐specific, but that some general effects can be identified. Features of intensive arable farming including large areas of sugar beet, wheat and oilseed rape tended to be associated with low frequencies of occurrence for 9–11 species, while large areas of younger (re‐seeded) grassland and high sheep stocking densities were associated with low frequencies in pastoral farmland for up to 12 species. One key feature of lower intensity farming, the presence of larger areas of fallow land, was positively related to frequency index for up to 11 species. The proportion of barley sown in spring and agricultural diversity were each associated with a range of complex relationships with frequency index across species, probably reflecting combinations of positive influences and artefacts of scale and geography. A variable describing the heterogeneity of farmland (the extent to which it is a mix of arable and pastoral land‐use) was negatively related to frequency index for eight species, but other results suggested that farming which is mixed at a smaller spatial scale is widely beneficial. The results reveal relationships between agriculture and the occurrence of granivorous farmland bird species which suggest both hypotheses for the causes of population change and directions for management action. However, data on several key features of agricultural practice (such as pesticide use) were unavailable, so their effects could not be tested, and the effects of the variables included could not be separated from those of other factors which are subject to complex geographical variation. Experimental comparisons of the effects of land‐use at the farm scale are needed to investigate such confounded influences on farmland bird occurrence.     

Multifunctional use of a natural resource on farmland: wild pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) management and the conservation of farmland passerines

Current rural development policy encourages farmers to adopt multifunctional use of farmland. Non-agricultural resources such as wildlife provide a focus for recreational activities such as shooting and bird watching. This paper assesses the potential contribution of wild pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) management for shooting to the conservation of farmland passerines. Bird numbers were monitored over a 7-year period on farmland in Leicestershire (England), in relation to the introduction of a game management system. Passerines were used as the indicator group as they are an official quality of life indicator, and include species that are the subject of government biodiversity action plans. Following introduction of the game management package, there was little change in species diversity at the farm scale, but species experiencing population declines nationally showed significant increases in numbers. The management of wild pheasants for shooting may therefore have considerable potential for the conservation of nationally declining farmland birds and for recreational activities such as bird watching.     

Agricultural intensification and farmland birds: new insights from a central European country

The relationship between agricultural intensification and a decline in farmland bird populations is well documented in Europe, but the results are mostly based on data from the western part of the continent. In the former socialist eastern and central European countries, political changes around 1990 resulted in a steep decline in the intensity of agriculture. Therefore, one would expect populations of farmland birds to have recovered under these conditions of lower agricultural intensity. We explored population trends of 19 farmland bird species in the Czech Republic between 1982 and 2003 using data from a large‐scale monitoring scheme, and, additionally, we looked for relationships between such population changes and a number of variables describing the temporal development of Czech agriculture. Most farmland species declined during the focal period, and this decline was steepest in farmland specialists (Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus, Skylark Alauda arvensis, Linnet Carduelis cannabina and Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella). Although the intensity of agriculture was lower after than before 1990, the overall decline continued in most farmland bird species, albeit at a slower rate. The correlations between agricultural intensity and farmland bird decline showed opposite patterns to that found in other European studies, because bird populations were highest in years with the most intensive agriculture. We speculate that this pattern could have resulted from the impact of different driving forces causing farmland bird decline in different periods. The high intensity of agriculture could have caused the decline of the originally abundant populations before 1990. After 1990, the decreasing area of arable land could be the most important factor resulting in the continued decline of farmland bird populations. Our results demonstrate that the drivers of farmland bird population changes could differ across Europe, and thus investigations into the effect of farmland management in different parts of the continent are urgently required.     

The effect of land type diversity and spatial heterogeneity on farmland birds in Norway

The decline in farmland birds observed throughout Europe during recent decades has attracted much attention. Agricultural intensification or land abandonment are commonly forwarded as key drivers. Several countries have established agri-environmental schemes (AES) to counter these negative trends among farmland birds. This paper reports a study of the relationship between land use and bird species in the agricultural landscape of Norway. The main objective was to investigate the effect of spatial heterogeneity and diversity of land use on total richness and abundance of farmland birds at a national level.Monitoring the distribution and abundance of birds is part of the Norwegian monitoring programme for agricultural landscapes. The monitoring programme is based on mapping of 1 × 1 km squares distributed across the entire agricultural landscape. Within these squares permanent observation points are established for bird monitoring. Detailed interpretation of aerial photographs provides the land classification. We tested the relationship between landscape metrics at different levels of land type detail and species richness and abundance of farmland and non-farmland birds.There was a positive relationship between species richness and abundance of farmland birds and agricultural area. For non-farmland birds the relationship was negative. Spatial heterogeneity of land use was a significant positive factor for both farmland and non-farmland species. High land type diversity was positive for farmland bird richness, but negative for abundance. Non-farmland bird richness was not affected by land type diversity, but abundance had a negative response.The results presented in this paper highlight the importance of a spatial heterogeneous landscape. However, we also found that land type diversity could negatively affect the abundance of both farmland and non-farmland birds. Our findings suggest a need for different management approaches depending on whether the aim is increased species richness or abundance. Achieving both aims with the same means might be difficult. We thus suggest a need for land use analyses before proper management strategies can be implemented.     

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guánica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of high-quality tropical dry forests in the Caribbean. The winter bird community has exhibited dramatic declines, with constant-effort mist netting now capturing about one-third as many birds as it did 20 years ago. Population estimates for the three most common species have declined dramatically, even though survival rates have remained constant, and other species are now virtually absent from a site where they once were fairly common. Although explanations for these declines are speculative, particularly because they involve multiple species, we argue that the strength and duration of these declines in well-preserved dry forest within a biosphere reserve should stimulate renewed discussion of migrant population trends and comparison with other recent monitoring activities.     

The role of natural habitats in agricultural systems for bird conservation: the case of the threatened Lesser Grey Shrike

Birds of agricultural systems are one of the most threatened groups of birds in Europe mainly due to their sharp population decline in recent decades. Habitat intensification resulting from more productive agricultural practices has been proposed as a major cause for these declines. However, especially in some regions such as Eastern European and Mediterranean countries, little is known about the ultimate factors linked to habitat intensification that drive population declines for different species. The Lesser Grey Shrike is a good study species for a better understanding of such processes since it is closely related to agricultural habitats in Europe and has suffered a strong decline in range and population size across the western half of the continent. In this study, we explored variations in breeding parameters of this shrike related to habitat composition and food supply at the territory level. We found that fledgling success of early breeders was related to the presence of natural (shrub lands) and semi-natural (fallows) habitats in the predominantly agricultural matrix that dominated breeding territories. Their influence on fledgling success appeared to be mediated by a higher arthropod availability on these habitats. Indeed, Lesser Grey Shrike showed a strong preference for these habitats as hunting locations. Our results highlight the importance of natural habitats in intensified agricultural land mosaics for the conservation of bird species. We suggest that management plans should pay special attention to the availability of habitats which serve as high quality food reservoirs and can potentially contribute to enhance the species population viability in an area. Finally, we discuss the possible link between agricultural intensification and Lesser Grey Shrike population declines in Western Europe.     

The recent declines of farmland bird populations in Britain: an appraisal of causal factors and conservation actions

In this paper, the main aspects of agricultural intensification that have led to population declines in farmland birds over the past 50 years are reviewed, together with the current state of knowledge, and the effects of recent conservation actions. For each of 30 declining species, attention is focused on: (1) the external causes of population declines, (2) the demographic mechanisms and (3) experimental tests of proposed external causal factors, together with the outcome of (4) specific conservation measures and (5) agri‐environment schemes. Although each species has responded individually to particular aspects of agricultural change, certain groups of species share common causal factors. For example, declines in the population levels of seed‐eating birds have been driven primarily by herbicide use and the switch from spring‐sown to autumn‐sown cereals, both of which have massively reduced the food supplies of these birds. Their population declines have been associated with reduced survival rates and, in some species, also with reduced reproductive rates. In waders of damp grassland, population declines have been driven mainly by land drainage and the associated intensification of grassland management. This has led to reduced reproductive success, as a result of lowered food availability, together with increased disturbance and trampling by farm stock, and in some localities increased nest predation. The external causal factors of population decline are known (with varying degrees of certainty) for all 30 species considered, and the demographic causal factors are known (again with varying degrees of certainty) for 24 such species. In at least 19 species, proposed causal factors have been tested and confirmed by experiment or by local conservation action, and 12 species have been shown to benefit (in terms of locally increased breeding density) from options available in one or more agri‐environment schemes. Four aspects of agricultural change have been the main drivers of bird population declines, each affecting a wide range of species, namely: (1) weed‐control, mainly through herbicide use; (2) the change from spring‐sown to autumn‐sown cereal varieties, and the associated earlier ploughing of stubbles and earlier crop growth; (3) land drainage and associated intensification of grassland management; and (4) increased stocking densities, mainly of cattle in the lowlands and sheep in the uplands. These changes have reduced the amounts of habitat and/or food available to many species. Other changes, such as the removal of hedgerows and ‘rough patches’, have affected smaller numbers of species, as have changes in the timings of cultivations and harvests. Although at least eight species have shown recent increases in their national population levels, many others seem set to continue declining, or to remain at a much reduced level, unless some relevant aspect of agricultural practice is changed.     

Modelling the effects of irrigation schemes on the distribution of steppe birds in Mediterranean farmland

Research conducted in several Mediterranean areas indicates that most populations of steppe birds are currently experiencing population declines associated with intensification of traditional agricultural practices. By using habitat suitability modeling (HSM), our aim was to use available environmental data sets, including land use and relief, to model the current distribution of nine steppe bird species in the agriculture dominated areas of the Catalan Ebro basin (northeast Iberia). We then employ HSM to quantitatively assess the future impact of land use changes on the potential distribution range of these species under two scenarios following irrigation of present extensive cereal steppes in the area. HSM analyses showed a close association between steppe bird distribution and the extent of extensive cereal agriculture in flat areas. Although the sensitivity to planned irrigation schemes was species specific, we estimated significant decreases in distribution after irrigation for seven of the nine species examined, i.e. the Little bustard, the Montagu's harrier, the Roller and the Calandra lark, the species predicted to be more severely affected by predicted decreases in area exceeding 50%. Overall, core steppe habitats where most valuable steppe species may co-occur are expected to be mostly impacted and decrease by 74 to 81% after irrigation of only 28 to 36% of the cereal cropland in the region. Future maintenance and survival of viable populations of steppe birds will rely on our ability to enlarge the network of protected areas and to implement agri-environmental measures targeting current species core habitats in low-intensity farmland.     

Farmers’ perceptions of biodiversity and their willingness to enhance it through agri-environment schemes: A comparative study from Estonia and Finland

This comparative study is based on structured interviews with farmers participating in the agri-environment schemes in Estonia and Finland. It explores farmers’ interest in and knowledge of farmland wildlife, their understanding of the concept of biodiversity, and awareness of the potential causes behind declines of farmland birds. It also examines the relationship between farmers’ interest and willingness to undertake practices favouring farmland wildlife. Estonian and Finnish farmers showed considerable interest in wildlife on their farms, which was only weakly related to the self-assessed knowledge of wildlife. Many farmers viewed biodiversity from a narrow perspective often excluding species directly related to farming. Finnish farmers expressed more concern about the decline in common farmland species than Estonian ones. In both countries farmers rated intensification of agriculture as the major driving force behind farmland bird declines. The expressed interest in wildlife positively correlated with willingness to undertake wildlife-friendly measures. Only farmers with agri-environment contracts targeted specifically at biodiversity enhancement were more knowledgeable about practical on-farm activities favouring wildlife, and were more willing to employ them than the rest. Estonian farmers expressed a high degree of willingness to enhance wildlife though agri-environment management, which is a good sign for better implementation of the recently established national programme towards conservation.     

Demography of greater prairie-chickens: Regional variation in vital rates,sensitivity values,and population dynamics

Intensification of rangeland management has coincided with population declines among obligate grassland species in the largest remaining tallgrass prairie in North America, although causes of declines remain unknown. We modeled population dynamics and conducted sensitivity analyses from demographic data collected for an obligate grassland bird that is an indicator species for tallgrass prairie, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), during a 4-year study in east-central Kansas, USA. We examined components of reproductive effort and success, juvenile survival, and annual adult female survival for 3 populations of prairie-chickens across an ecological gradient of human landscape alteration and land use. We observed regional differences in reproductive performance, survivorship, and population dynamics. All 3 populations of prairie-chickens were projected to decline steeply given observed vital rates, but rates of decline differed across a gradient of landscape alteration, with the greatest declines in fragmented landscapes. Elasticity values, variance-scaled sensitivities, and contribution values from a random-effects life-table response experiment all showed that the finite rate of population change was more sensitive to changes in adult survival than other demographic parameters in our declining populations. The rate of population change was also sensitive to nest survival at the most fragmented and least intensively grazed study site; suggesting that patterns of landscape fragmentation and land use may be affecting the relative influences of underlying vital rates on rates of population growth. Our model results indicate that 1) populations of prairie-chickens in eastern Kansas are unlikely to be viable without gains from immigration, 2) rates of population decline vary among areas under different land management practices, 3) human land-use patterns may affect the relative influences of vital rates on population trajectories, and 4) anthropogenic effects on population demography may influence the regional life-history strategies of a short-lived game bird. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

The relationship between multi‐scale habitat heterogeneity and farmland bird abundance

It has recently been proposed that losses in farmland habitat heterogeneity may have been a primary driver of the profound declines exhibited by many farmland bird species in recent decades. However, it has yet to be demonstrated which facets of heterogeneity and what spatial scales are most important for birds. Here we analyse the relationship between abundance and features of landscape heterogeneity at three spatial scales (1, 9 and 25 km²) for 32 bird species commonly associated with farmland. Heterogeneity was quantified using three contrasting indices reflecting 1) the spatial mixing of land uses, 2) variation in field sizes and 3) the density of field boundaries. The spatial mixing of land‐uses explained, on average, the most variation in, and was most likely to be positively associated with, abundance at all spatial scales. The majority of species (66–75%, depending on the spatial scale) were more common in heterogeneous landscapes overall; however, migrants, those under a high level of conservation concern and farmland specialist species tended to be less abundant in more heterogeneous landscapes at all scales. Ground‐nesting species were also more likely to be found in more homogeneous habitats than non‐ground‐nesters, but only at the finest spatial scale. Relationships between abundance and heterogeneity were generally consistent across spatial scales; however, species of high conservation concern had more variable associations compared with other species. These results highlight a potential role for farmland habitat heterogeneity in determining the abundance of many farmland species but suggest that population responses to an increase in heterogeneity would not be unanimously positive and would probably have negative impacts on some species, notably those that are already threatened.     

Contrasting patterns of change in the distribution and abundance of farmland birds in relation to farming system in lowland Britain

Patterns of change in distribution (presence/absence) and abundance since the late 1960s were examined in 20 species of farmland bird in southern Britain in predominantly arable (eastern), predominantly mixed (central) and predominantly grassland (western) regions. Comparisons were made between changes in distribution and in abundance to determine whether these measures show similar relationships to environmental change. Local extinctions of selected species and reductions in species richness were significantly greater in the predominantly grassland region. Decreases in abundance were greatest in seven species in the predominantly arable region, two in the mixed region and nine in the grassland region. Changes in distribution and abundance showed consistent patterns in three species, turtle dove Streptopelia turtur L., yellow wagtail Motacilla flava L. and reed bunting Emberiza schoeniclus L. In another four species, grey partridge Perdix perdix L., lapwing Vanellus vanellus L., tree sparrow Passer montanus L. and corn bunting Miliaria calandra L., decreases in abundance were greatest in the arable region, yet declines in distribution were lowest. For other individual species, changes in distribution were too small to draw any conclusions in relation to farm type. We suggest that modern grassland systems are suboptimal habitats compared to arable or mixed agricultural land for many farmland species that occur at relatively low density in the more western, grass‐dominated region. Declines in abundance are therefore more likely to lead to local extinction in these areas than in eastern areas where abundance is higher. However, the role of changes in grassland management on bird populations requires further research. It is suggested that conclusions drawn from changes in distribution alone, in the absence of supporting data on changes in abundance, may be misleading where the aim is to assess how large‐scale spatial dynamics of populations relate to environmental change.