Determinants of birth intervals in Sudan

Using individual birth history data from the Sudan Fertility Survey, 1979, parity-related differences in fertility are demonstrated, as well as differences between socioeconomic groups. Rural women, women with no education and those married to uneducated husbands show rapid parity progression and its cumulative effects on fertility which are consistent over all birth intervals. Urban women, women with some education and those married to educated husbands, however, go rapidly through their second and third birth intervals and then more slowly at higher parities. A limitation of the study was the inability to control fully for the effects of breast-feeding and contraception. There is evidence for a reduction in high parity births, starting in the 1970s.     

Determinants of cumulative fertility in Kenya

This paper analyses the effects of age at first marriage, level of education, place of residence, marriage disruption, religion, contraceptive use, and work status on cumulative fertility in Kenya, using data from the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey. Age at first marriage is the main determinant of cumulative fertility, but there are significant effects of level of education and marriage disruption. Place of residence is only significant for the Coast province. The implication of the findings is that to promote any real decline in fertility, emphasis should be placed on providing higher education and work opportunities for young women as an alternative to early marriage.     

Determinants of rural and urban fertility differentials in Nigeria

Whatever proximate variables are examined, their differential effects on rural and urban fertility are small. This indicates that no major disturbance has taken place in urban or rural reproductive norms. However, two possible reasons for the converging pattern of rural and urban fertility in Nigeria are identified. One is that urban mothers in the first half of the childbearing age range have higher fertility than their rural counterparts. The other is that breast-feeding and post-partum abstinence, which are the major determinants of marital fertility, exert a more depressing influence on rural than urban fertility.     

Evidence of increasing natural fertility in Taiwan

Abstract

A comparison of the age‐specific marital fertility experience of three successive cohorts in Taiwan indicates that the later cohorts have experienced progressively higher rates of natural fertility at each age from 15–19 to 35–39. Their fecundability is correspondingly higher and post‐partum sterility, shorter. These changes in natural fertility levels occurred almost simultaneously with recorded changes in health and nutrition levels. These findings support the hypothesis that during the process of modernization and the fertility transition, the level of natural fertility increases, potentially as a result of improvements in health and nutrition, and changes in lactation practices. It is the net effect of increases in natural fertility on the one hand and deliberate fertility regulation on the other, that determines the course of fertility over time, especially at early stages of modernization and the fertility transition.     

Variations in historical natural fertility patterns and the measurement of fertility control

This paper looks at 2 main issues: 1) Henry's definition of natural fertility--that which is not controlled within marriage in a parity-specific way; and 2) the use of standard age-specific marital fertility schedules to measure the extent of fertility control. The authors note a number of conceptual difficulties inherent in Henry's definition and which detract from its usefulness. In particular, prolonged lactation and taboos against sexual intercourse are capable of depressing fertility within marriage, while still allowing it to be described as natural. This paper explores some of the consequences of the identified difficulties for the measurement of fertility control within marriage. Regional as well as temporal variations are to be expected in the pattern of marital fertility. The factors affecting natural fertility may be broadly divided into the physical and the psychological. Needed are a variety of standard marital fertility schedules specific to the underlying fertility conditions of the particular population under investigation. The universal applicability of a single standard is placed in doubt. The greatest problem, however, with the application of the idea of natural fertility to historical populations is that its definition rests upon a number of behavioral characteristics amongst a population, whereas its identification must normally proceed in reverse, arguing backwards from the pattern observed to the behavioral processes and conditions which might have produced that pattern. The arguments presented are illustrated by a detailed example drawn from the fertility patterns of Britain, Denmark and Sweden.     

The effects of type of female circumcision on infertility and fertility in Sudan

This study explores the association between type of female circumcision and infertility and fertility in Sudan using the 1989-90 Demographic and Health Survey. It is hypothesized that women with either Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision would have higher infertility and lower fertility compared with women with Sunna circumcision, and that uncircumcised women would have the lowest infertility and highest fertility of the three groups. This hypothesis, a widely held assumption, proved to be largely incorrect. Though women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision did have a higher prevalence of primary infertility than uncircumcised women, women with Sunna circumcision had even lower rates of primary infertility compared with uncircumcised women. This pattern prevailed in multivariate models controlling for confounding variables, where women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision had significantly higher primary infertility. Moreover, though women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision also had the highest prevalence of secondary infertility, once confounding covariates were controlled in multivariate models, there was no significant difference among the three groups of women. With respect to fertility, the total fertility rate was 7.6 for women with Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision, 8.1 for women with Sunna circumcision and 8.3 for uncircumcised women. Differences in fertility were found to be insignificant when covariates were controlled. The multivariate models were estimated using logistic regression. In conclusion, Pharaonic or Intermediate circumcision may be associated with higher primary infertility while there was no evidence suggesting that either secondary infertility or fertility was associated with a woman's circumcision status.     

Determinants of fertility in Nepal: applications of an aggregate model

Bongaarts aggregate model of the proximate determinants of fertility is applied to data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey in Nepal. Breastfeeding is shown to be the most important limiting factor, resulting in a reduction of about 6 children per woman. Decline in the duration of breastfeeding by 1/4 would increase fertility by 1 additional child per woman. The temporary separation of spouses due to migration is conjectured to be the 2nd most important fertility inhibiting factor, not explicitly accounted for in the standard model. Results are presented for the 3 major ecological regions, urban-rural residence and educational attainment of women. High nuptiality and virtually no contraceptive use in Nepal produce age-specific fertility rates very close to a natural fertility pattern. Total average interval between births is 36 months; about 18 months are solely due to breastfeeding, the remaining months to combined effects of gestation, waiting time to conception, intrauterine mortality and post-partum infecundability. As urbanization increases and pace of modernization becomes more pronounced, the duration of breastfeeding is susceptible to decline.     

Determinants of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Case-Control Study in Gedaref State,Sudan

Background

Improving knowledge on local determinants of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is crucial to guide the development of relevant control strategies. This study aimed to identify individual and household level determinants of primary VL in 24 highly endemic villages of Tabarak Allah hospital’s catchment area, Gedaref State, Sudan.

Methods

From September 2012 to July 2013, in an unmatched case-control design, 198 patients with primary VL were compared to 801 controls free of VL symptoms and with a negative VL rapid test. Using random spatial sampling, controls were selected with a distribution of age, sex and village of residence proportionate to the distribution of the target population. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire.

Results

Children and men were at higher risk of VL. Reporting VL patient(s) in the household in the previous year was the strongest VL risk factor. In a multivariate analysis, VL risk increased with household size, sleep location (outside the yard, not in the farm), evening outdoor activities in the rainy season (playing, watching TV, radio listening), use of ground nut oil as animal repellent and of smoke of Acacia seyal as indoor repellent, presence of dogs in the yard at night, Acacia nilotica in the yard’s immediate surroundings and of a forest at eye range. VL risk appeared to decrease with the use of drinking water sources other than the village water tank, a buffer distance from the adjacent house yard, and with the presence of animals other than dogs in the yard at night. In contrast with previous studies, housing factors, mosquito-net use, black cotton soil, ethnicity, socioeconomic index, presence of Balanites aegyptica and Azadirachta indica in the yard were not independent VL determinants.

Discussion and conclusion

Although these results do not provide evidence of causality, they provide useful suggestions for guiding further intervention studies on VL preventive measures.     

Regional variation in the age-specific natural fertility curve

This paper examines the question of whether there are consistent regional variations in the level and shape of the age-specific natural fertility curve using data for 45 less-developed countries drawn from a recent US Census Bureau compilation. The 45 countries were grouped into 4 regional categories: sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and North Africa; South and Southeast Asia; and Latin America. In general there do not appear to be variations. A consistent age pattern of natural fertility emerges, once the rates have been normalized and an adjustment made for age at 1st exposure to the risk of pregnancy. The results strongly support Coale's original natural fertility paradigm. The differences in the absolute fertility rates among the 4 regions correspond to the differences in proportion of females aged 15 and over who are currently married. The differences among 3 of the regions are relatively small whereas sub-Saharan Africa's proportion currently married is significantly higher.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: Analysis of intermediate variables

Abstract

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One‐per‐Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In‐depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: analysis of intermediate variables.

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One-per-Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In-depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.     

The estimation of natural fertility: A micro approach

Abstract

The estimation of natural fertility has heretofore been confined to population aggregates. This paper presents a technique for estimating natural fertility at the household level for developing countries with some practice of deliberate family size limitation and applies it to micro‐level WFS data for Sri Lanka and Colombia for females aged 35–44 in intact marriages. The technique is based on a proximate determinants equation estimated as part of a model that takes account of the interdependence between use of fertility control and natural fertility. To evaluate the results, the mean and household level estimates of natural fertility for each country are first compared with actual fertility; then mean estimates for each country are compared with macro‐level estimates of natural fertility based on three other methods. Finally, the implications of the analysis for the proximate sources of intercountry and intracountry variations in natural fertility are examined. The results suggest that the present approach yields plausible quantitative estimates of natural fertility and reasonable analytical results.     

Repeated inseminations required for natural fertility in a wild bird population

In most bird species, pairs copulate many times before egg laying. The exact function of repeated inseminations (i.e. successful copulations) is unknown, but several suggestions have been made. We tested the hypothesis that repeated inseminations are required to ensure fertilization of eggs, by using an experimental method where free-ranging male collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) were prevented from inseminating their mates. We show that egg fertility was lower when females had not copulated during the studied part of their fertile period. By counting sperm on the inner perivitelline layer of eggs, we estimated that a minimum of 86 sperm must reach the site of fertilization to ensure average fertility. Using the timing of inseminations and the numbers of sperm on successive eggs, we show that repeated copulations are necessary to achieve an average rate of fertilization of a single clutch. Our results thus provide evidence that repeated inseminations function to ensure fertilization success. We discuss possible constraints on sperm production and utilization that may have contributed to this pattern.     

Demographic and endocrinological aspects of low natural fertility in Highland New Guinea

The Gainj of highland Papua New Guinea do not use contraception but have a total fertility rate of only 4.3 live births/woman, 1 of the lowest ever recorded in a natural fertility setting. Reproductive and marital histories were obtained from 305 females and 206 males aged 10+. Each subject was asked about: number of live born offspring ever produced; number of stillbirths ever produced; number and names of offspring currently being nursed; number of current and past spouses; and the cause of dissolution of all past marriages. Blood samples were drawn from 172 volunteer female subjects aged 10-60 years and ovarian function was classified by concentration of progesterone. From an analysis of these cross-sectional demographic and endocrinological data, the causes of low reproductive output have been identified in women of this population as: late menarche and marriage, a long interval between marriage and 1st birth, a high probability of widowhood at later reproductive ages, low effective fecundability and prolonged lactational amenorrhea. These are combined with near-universal marriage, and a low prevalence of primary sterility similar to that found in other populations. Of all the factors limiting fertility, by far the most important are those involved in birth spacing, especially lactational amenorrhea. The effects of widowhood on Gainj fertility are negligible. Factors acting to lower fertility fall into 2 categories: those that determine the age of onset of reproduction and those that act to space births. Given the observed pattern of birth spacing, however, the delay in commencement of reproduction represents on average no more than 1 or 2 live births averted/woman. In contrast, were age at 1st reproduction held constant while reducing birth intervals to a mean of 2.0-2.5 years, total fertility would increase to about 7 or 8. Future research on natural fertility should focus on specific behavioral and physiological mechanisms governing the reproductive process.     

Determinants of natural mating success in the cannibalistic orb-web spider Argiope bruennichi

Monogynous mating systems (low male mating rates) occur in various taxa and have evolved several times independently in spiders. Monogyny is associated with remarkable male mating strategies and predicted to evolve under a male-biased sex ratio. While male reproductive strategies are well documented and male mating rates are easy to quantify, especially in sexually cannibalistic species, female reproductive strategies, the optimal female mating rate, and the factors that affect the evolution of female mating rates are still unclear. In this study, we examined natural female mating rates and tested the assumption of a male-biased sex ratio and female polyandry in a natural population of Argiope bruennichi in which we controlled female mating status prior to observations. We predicted variation in female mating frequencies as a result of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of mature females and males. Females had a low average mating rate of 1.3 and the majority copulated only once. Polyandry did not entirely result from a male-biased sex-ratio but closely matched the rate of male bigamy. Male activity and the probability of polyandry correlated with factors affecting pheromone presence such as virgin females' density. We conclude that a strong sex ratio bias and high female mating rates are not necessary components of monogynous mating systems as long as males protect their paternity effectively and certain frequencies of bigyny stabilise the mating system.     

Selection on floral traits through male fertility in a natural plant population

Most studies on selection in plants estimate female fitness components and neglect male mating success, although the latter might also be fundamental to understand adaptive evolution. Information from molecular genetic markers can be used to assess determinants of male mating success through parentage analyses. We estimated paternal selection gradients on floral traits in a large natural population of the herb Mimulus guttatus using a paternity probability model and maximum likelihood methods. This analysis revealed more significant selection gradients than a previous analysis based on regression of estimated male fertilities on floral traits. There were differences between results of univariate and multivariate analyses most likely due to the underlying covariance structure of the traits. Multivariate analysis, which corrects for the covariance structure of the traits, indicated that male mating success declined with distance from and depended on the direction to the mother plants. Moreover, there was directional selection for plants with fewer open flowers which have smaller corollas, a smaller anther–stigma separation, more red dots on the corolla and a larger fluctuating asymmetry therein. For most of these traits, however, there was also stabilizing selection indicating that there are intermediate optima for these traits. The large number of significant selection gradients in this study shows that even in relatively large natural populations where not all males can be sampled, it is possible to detect significant paternal selection gradients, and that such studies can give us valuable information required to better understand adaptive plant evolution. Second affiliation for Mark Van Kleunen is temporary until February 2007.     

Air pollution from natural and anthropic sources and male fertility

Exposure to air pollution has been clearly associated with a range of adverse health effects, including reproductive toxicity. However, a limited amount of research has been conducted to examine the association between air pollution and male reproductive outcomes, specially semen quality. We performed a systematic review (up to March 2017) to assess the impact of environmental and occupational exposure to air pollution on semen quality. Epidemiological studies focusing on air pollution exposures and male reproduction were identified by a search of the PUBMED, MEDLINE, EBSCO and TOXNET literature bases. Twenty-two studies were included which assess the impact of air pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NOx, O₃, PAHs) on main semen parameters (sperm concentration, motility, morphology), CASA parameters, DNA fragmentation, sperm aneuploidy and the level of reproductive hormones. The number of studies found significant results supporting the evidence that air pollution may affect: DNA fragmentation, morphology and motility.In summary, most studies concluded that outdoor air pollution affects at least one of the assessed semen parameters. However the diversity of air pollutants and semen parameters presented in the studies included in the review and different study design caused lack of consistency in results and difficulties in comparison.     

Ineffective contraceptive use and its causes in a natural fertility population in southern Jordan

Based on our interview survey of 574 randomly selected married women from a rural population in the South Ghor district, Jordan, where traditional Arab customs have been persistently maintained, in this paper we analyze the age-specific marital fertility rates (ASMFRs) and contraceptive practices, especially the prevalence and duration of contraceptive use. The ASMFRs fitted the natural fertility pattern proposed by Coale and Trussell's model, and the total fertility rate was estimated to be 7.2. Even though the prevalence rate of modern contraceptive methods has reached 14.3%, because of the recent increase among young women in particular, the users had larger numbers of children than the nonusers and the duration of contraceptive use was short, especially at young ages (e.g., about 90% 24-month discontinuation probabilities in 15-19- and 20-24-year-olds). These ineffective contraceptive uses were related to traditional Arab norms, represented by the pooled proportion of "as many as possible" and "up to God" answers to the ideal number of children (70% of men and 30% of women).