Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km² in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.     

A Potential Distribution Model and Conservation Plan for the Critically Endangered Ecuadorian Capuchin, Cebus albifrons aequatorialis

Conservation actions that effectively and efficiently target single, highly threatened species require current data on the species’ geographic distribution and environmental associations. The Ecuadorian capuchin (Cebus albifrons aequatorialis) is a critically endangered primate found only in the fragmented forests of western Ecuador and northern Peru, which are among the world’s most severely threatened ecosystems. We use the MAXENT species distribution modeling method to model the potential distribution and environmental associations of Cebus albifrons aequatorialis, using all known presence localities recorded within the last 2 decades as well as 13 climate, topography, vegetation, and land-use data sets covering the entire geographic range of the subspecies. The environmental conditions that our model predicted to be ideal for supporting Cebus albifrons aequatorialis included ≥20% tree cover, mild temperature seasonality, annual precipitation <2000 mm, and low human population density. Our model identified 5028 km² of suitable habitat remaining, although many of these forest fragments are unprotected and are unlikely to support extant populations. Using the median population density across all sites for which data are available, we estimate the total carrying capacity of the remaining habitat to be 12,500 total individuals. The true number of remaining individuals is likely to be considerably lower due to anthropogenic factors. We highlight four critical regions of high predicted suitability in western Ecuador and northern Peru on which immediate conservation actions should focus, and we lay out clear priorities to guide conservation actions for ensuring the long-term survival of this gravely threatened and little known primate.     

Fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus distribution and habitat suitability in Nepal

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist species endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. To assess their distribution, we compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n = 154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009–2020). Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the fishing cat habitat suitability using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat habitat suitability was associated with elevation (152–302 m), precipitation of the warmest quarter, i.e., April–June (668–1014 mm), precipitation of the driest month (4–7 mm), and land cover (forest/grassland and wetland). The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6679 km²) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two‐thirds of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas; however, a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat suitability map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long‐term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and studying their genetic connectivity and population status.     

How to deal with ground truthing affected by human‐induced habitat change?: Identifying high‐quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground‐truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960–2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km²) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground‐truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km², in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity‐friendly agri‐ and silviculture programs.     

Novae Gesneriaceae Neotropicarum IV: Alloplectus purpureus and Columnea nematoloba—New Gesneriaceae from northwestern South America

Two species of Gesneriaceae are described:Alloplectus purpureus from the lower montane forests of northwestern Ecuador and adjacent Colombia andColumnea nematoloba from the lowland rain forests of western Colombia. The first with its fimbriate calyx lobes is probably nearest toAlloplectus sprucei, occurring in the same region but mostly at lower elevations. The second is in a group with two recently described species from western Ecuador and Colombia,Columnea fililoba andC. incredibilis, all having filiform corolla lobes.     

Leopard (Panthera pardus) occupancy in the Chure range of Nepal

Conservation of large carnivores such as leopards requires large and interconnected habitats. Despite the wide geographic range of the leopard globally, only 17% of their habitat is within protected areas. Leopards are widely distributed in Nepal, but their population status and occupancy are poorly understood. We carried out the sign‐based leopard occupancy survey across the entire Chure range (~19,000 km²) to understand the habitat occupancy along with the covariates affecting their occupancy. Leopard signs were obtained from in 70 out of 223 grids surveyed, with a naïve leopard occupancy of 0.31. The model‐averaged leopard occupancy was estimated to be 0.5732 (SE 0.0082) with a replication‐level detection probability of 0.2554 (SE 0.1142). The top model shows the additive effect of wild boar, ruggedness, presence of livestock, and human population density positively affecting the leopard occupancy. The detection probability of leopard was higher outside the protected areas, less in the high NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) areas, and higher in the areas with livestock presence. The presence of wild boar was strong predictor of leopard occupancy followed by the presence of livestock, ruggedness, and human population density. Leopard occupancy was higher in west Chure (0.70 ± SE 0.047) having five protected areas compared with east Chure (0.46 ± SE 0.043) with no protected areas. Protected areas and prey species had positive influence on leopard occupancy in west Chure range. Similarly in the east Chure, the leopard occupancy increased with prey, NDVI, and terrain ruggedness. Enhanced law enforcement and mass awareness activities are necessary to reduce poaching/killing of wild ungulates and leopards in the Chure range to increase leopard occupancy. In addition, maintaining the sufficient natural prey base can contribute to minimize the livestock depredation and hence decrease the human–leopard conflict in the Chure range.     

Predicting the spatial distribution of the blue-spotted maskray Neotrygon kuhlii (Myliobatiformes, Dasyatidae) on the Australian North and Northwest Shelf comparing two different methods of habitat modeling

Knowledge about distribution and habitat requirements of species is important for analyzing their role in marine ecosystems or establishing sanctuaries. However, knowledge is scarce especially in many chondrichthyan species. In this study, the spatial distribution of the stingray Neotrygon kuhlii on the Australian North and Northwest Shelf was predicted model-based for the first time. Predictions based on two different types of habitat suitability models, logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling. Catch data of N. kuhlii from Australian trawl surveys combined with randomly selected pseudo-absences were used for modeling together with data sets of several environmental variables. Both modeling methods yielded plausible and validated habitat suitability models containing water depth and salinity as significant independent variables. The model-based predictions of the probability of occurrence of N. kuhlii were similar for both methods and thus emphasized the goodness of the models. Following the predictions, N. kuhlii has its highest probability of occurrence in about 60 m water depth and at a salinity of about 35 PSU. The results indicate that both modeling methods are powerful tools to predict spatial distribution and habitat quality for marine fish species. Therefore, they are suitable for detecting possible distribution in areas with only few field records.     

Spatial Transferability of Habitat Suitability Models of Nephrops norvegicus among Fished Areas in the Northeast Atlantic: Sufficiently Stable for Marine Resource Conservation?

Knowledge of the spatial distribution and habitat associations of species in relation to the environment is essential for their management and conservation. Habitat suitability models are useful in quantifying species-environment relationships and predicting species distribution patterns. Little is known, however, about the stability and performance of habitat suitability models when projected into new areas (spatial transferability) and how this can inform resource management. The aims of this study were to model habitat suitability of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) in five fished areas of the Northeast Atlantic (Aran ground, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, Scotland Inshore and Fladen ground), and to test for spatial transferability of habitat models among multiple regions. Nephrops burrow density was modelled using generalised additive models (GAMs) with predictors selected from four environmental variables (depth, slope, sediment and rugosity). Models were evaluated and tested for spatial transferability among areas. The optimum models (lowest AICc) for different areas always included depth and sediment as predictors. Burrow densities were generally greater at depth and in finer sediments, but relationships for individual areas were sometimes more complex. Aside from an inclusion of depth and sediment, the optimum models differed between fished areas. When it came to tests of spatial transferability, however, most of the models were able to predict Nephrops density in other areas. Furthermore, transferability was not dependent on use of the optimum models since competing models were also able to achieve a similar level of transferability to new areas. A degree of decoupling between model ‘fitting’ performance and spatial transferability supports the use of simpler models when extrapolating habitat suitability maps to different areas. Differences in the form and performance of models from different areas may supply further information on the processes shaping species’ distributions. Spatial transferability of habitat models can be used to support fishery management when the information is scarce but caution needs to be applied when making inference and a multi-area transferability analysis is preferable to bilateral comparisons between areas.     

Tn5-Induced Mutations in the Enterobacterial Phytopathogen Erwinia chrysanthemi

Escherichia coli (2492/pJB4JI) matings with Erwinia chrysanthemi produced kanamycin resistant (Km^r) transconjugants, a majority of which were gentamicin sensitive (Gm^s). A small proportion (about 0.8%) of the Km^r Gm^s clones were either auxotrophic or failed to catabolize galacturonate (Gtu⁻). The R plasmid (pJB4JI) DNA was detected in the parent E. coli strain and in a Km^r Gm^r transconjugant, but not in Km^r Gm^sE. chrysanthemi strains carrying Tn5-induced mutations. In Hfr crosses, Km^r (Tn5) was found linked with most mutations. A majority (>95%) of prototrophic recombinants were Km^s, except for Leu⁺ and Arg⁺ recombinants which were 30 to 50% Km^s. Spontaneous revertants were obtained for all markers except car, gtu, lys, thr, and trp. Prototrophic revertants, with the exception of Met⁺, Leu⁺, or His⁺ clones, were Km^s. We conclude from both genetic and physical data that Tn5 transposed from pJB4JI into different sites on the chromosome of E. chrysanthemi.     

Habitat selection of an endangered primate,the samango monkey (Cercopithecus albogularis schwarzi): Integrating scales to prioritize habitat for wildlife management

AimAs habitat loss continues to accelerate with global human population growth, identifying landscape characteristics that influence species occurrence is a key conservation priority in order to prevent global biodiversity loss. In South Africa, the arboreal samango monkey (Cercopithecus albogularis sp.) is threatened due to loss and fragmentation of the indigenous forests it inhabits. The aim of this study was to determine the habitat preferences of the samango monkey at different spatial scales, and to identify key conservation areas to inform management plans for this species.LocationThis study was carried out in the western Soutpansberg Mountains, which represents the northernmost population of samango monkeys within South Africa, and the only endangered subspecies (C. a. schwarzi).MethodsWe used sequentially collected GPS points from two samango monkey groups followed between 2012 and 2017 to quantify the used and available habitat for this species within the western Soutpansberg Mountains. We developed 2nd‐order (selection of ranging area), 3rd‐order (selection within range), and 4th‐order (feeding site selection) resource selection functions (RSFs) to identify important habitat features at each scale. Through scale integration, we identified three key conservation areas for samango monkeys across Limpopo Province, South Africa.ResultsHabitat productivity was the most important landscape variable predicting probability of use at each order of selection, indicating the dependence of these arboreal primates on tall‐canopy indigenous forests. Critical habitat across Limpopo was highly fragmented, meaning complete isolation between subpopulations is likely.Main conclusionsUnderstanding the habitat characteristics that influence samango monkey distribution across South Africa is crucial for prioritizing critical habitat for this species. Our results indicated that large, contiguous patches of tall‐canopy indigenous forest are fundamental to samango monkey persistence. As such, protected area expansion of large forest patches and creation of forest corridors are identified as key conservation interventions for this species.     

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered tree Firmiana kwangsiensis using the Maxent modeling

The upsurge in anthropogenic climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wild animals and plants. The rare and endangered plants are important biodiversity elements. However, the lack of comprehensive and reliable information on the spatial distribution of these organisms has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We explored the consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of Firmiana kwangsiensis (Malvaceae), an endangered species, to provide a reference for conservation, introduction, and cultivation of this species in new ecological zones. Modeling of the potential distribution of F. kwangsiensis under the current and two future climate scenarios in maximum entropy was performed based on 30 occurrence records and 27 environmental variables of the plant. We found that precipitation‐associated and temperature‐associated variables limited the potentially suitable habitats for F. kwangsiensis. Our model predicted 259,504 km² of F. kwangsiensis habitat based on 25 percentile thresholds. However, the high suitable habitat for F. kwangsiensis is only about 41,027 km². F. kwangsiensis is most distributed in Guangxi''s protected areas. However, the existing reserves are only 2.7% of the total suitable habitat and 4.2% of the high suitable habitat for the plant, lower than the average protection area in Guangxi (7.2%). This means the current protected areas network is insufficient, underlining the need for alternative conservation mechanisms to protect the plant habitat. Our findings will help identify additional F. kwangsiensis localities and potential habitats and inform the development and implementation of conservation, management, and cultivation practices of such rare tree species.     

Mapping suitable great ape habitat in and around the Lobéké National Park,South‐East Cameroon

As a result of extensive data collection efforts over the last 20–30 years, there is quite a good understanding of the large‐scale geographic distribution and range limits of African great apes. However, as human activities increasingly fragment great ape spatial distribution, a better understanding of what constitutes suitable great ape habitat is needed to inform conservation and resource extraction management. Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) inhabit the Lobéké National Park and its surrounding forest management units (FMUs) in South‐East Cameroon. Both park and neighboring forestry concessions require reliable evidence on key factors driving great ape distribution for their management plans, yet this information is largely missing and incomplete. This study aimed at mapping great ape habitat suitability in the area and at identifying the most influential predictors among three predictor categories, including landscape predictors (dense forest, swampy forest, distance to water bodies, and topography), human disturbance predictors (hunting, deforestation, distance to roads, and population density), and bioclimatic predictor (annual precipitation). We found that about 63% of highly to moderately suitable chimpanzee habitat occurred within the Lobéké National Park, while only 8.4% of similar habitat conditions occurred within FMUs. For gorillas, highly and moderately suitable habitats occurred within the Lobéké National Park and its surrounding FMUs (82.6% and 65.5%, respectively). Key determinants of suitable chimpanzee habitat were hunting pressure and dense forest, with species occurrence probability optimal at relatively lower hunting rates and at relatively high‐dense forest areas. Key determinants of suitable gorilla habitat were hunting pressure, dense forests, swampy forests, and slope, with species occurrence probability optimal at relatively high‐dense and swampy forest areas and at areas with mild slopes. Our findings show differential response of the two ape species to forestry activities in the study area, thus aligning with previous studies.     

Confronting species distribution model predictions with species functional traits

Species distribution models are valuable tools in studies of biogeography, ecology, and climate change and have been used to inform conservation and ecosystem management. However, species distribution models typically incorporate only climatic variables and species presence data. Model development or validation rarely considers functional components of species traits or other types of biological data. We implemented a species distribution model (Maxent) to predict global climate habitat suitability for Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella). We then tested the relationship between the degree of climate habitat suitability predicted by Maxent and the individual growth rates of both wild (N = 17) and stocked (N = 51) Grass Carp populations using correlation analysis. The Grass Carp Maxent model accurately reflected the global occurrence data (AUC = 0.904). Observations of Grass Carp growth rate covered six continents and ranged from 0.19 to 20.1 g day⁻¹. Species distribution model predictions were correlated (r = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.79)) with observed growth rates for wild Grass Carp populations but were not correlated (r = −0.26, 95% CI (−0.5, 0.012)) with stocked populations. Further, a review of the literature indicates that the few studies for other species that have previously assessed the relationship between the degree of predicted climate habitat suitability and species functional traits have also discovered significant relationships. Thus, species distribution models may provide inferences beyond just where a species may occur, providing a useful tool to understand the linkage between species distributions and underlying biological mechanisms.     

Simulation of the potential distribution of rare and endangered Satyrium species in China under climate change

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long‐term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed that the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 10⁴ km², the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 10⁴ km², and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 10⁴ km² under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1‐2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5‐8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.     

Integrating climate and landscape models to prioritize areas and conservation strategies for an endangered arboreal primate

Species distributions are influenced by both climate conditions and landscape structure. Here we propose an integrated analysis of climatic and landscape niche-based models for a forest-dependent primate, the endangered black lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysopygus). We applied both climate and landscape variables to predict the distribution of this tamarin and used this information to prioritize strategic areas more accurately. We anticipated that this approach would be beneficial for the selection of pertinent conservation strategies for this flagship species. First, we built climate and landscape niche-based models separately, combining seven algorithms, to infer processes acting on the species distribution at different scales. Subsequently, we combined climate and landscape models using the EcoLand Analysis. Our results suggest that historic and current landscape fragmentation and modification had profoundly adverse effects on the distribution of the black lion tamarins. The models indicated just 2096 km² (out of an original distribution of 92,239 km²) of suitable areas for both climate and landscape. Of this suitable area, the species is currently present in less than 40%, which represents less than 1% of its original distribution. Based on the combined map, we determined the western and southeast regions of the species range to be priority areas for its conservation. We identified areas with high climatic and high landscape suitability, which overlap with the remaining forest fragments in both regions, for habitat conservation and population management. We suggest that areas with high climatic but low landscape suitability should be prioritized for habitat management and restoration. Areas with high landscape suitability and low climatic suitability, such as the Paranapiacaba mountain range should be considered in light of projected climate change scenarios. Our case study illustrates that a combined approach of climatic and landscape niche-based modeling can be useful for establishing focused conservation measures that may increase the likelihood of success.     

New insights into the distribution and conservation status of the Golden-White Tassel-Ear Marmoset <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mico chrysoleucos</Emphasis> (Primates,Callitrichidae)

Among the 13 Mico species recognized by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, six are listed as “Data Deficient”. The geographic range of most of the Mico species has been estimated from only a few records. We report new localities and the geographic extension of Mico chrysoleucos. In addition, we confirmed the presence of the species in two distinct protected areas. We modeled the habitat suitability of M. chrysoleucos using the maximum entropy method and including new records obtained by the authors in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. From the total area of occurrence calculated for the species, 22.8% is covered by protected areas and indigenous lands. The annual mean deforestation rate estimated between 2000 and 2015 was 2.95%, and the total area deforested by 2015 was 3354 km² or 8.6% of the total distribution limits of the species. The habitat lost between 2000 and 2015 was 3.2% (1131 km²) of the total potential distribution, while the habitat loss area legally protected was 31 km², and the habitat loss in settlements was equal to 691 km². Our results extend the geographic distribution of the species about 100 km farther south, with the Maracanã River being a possible geographic barrier for the species. The significantly low rate of habitat loss inside protected areas and indigenous land, when compared to unprotected areas, points out the importance of these areas to M. chrysoleucos conservation. The species is relatively wide-ranging, legally protected, and resilient to regional anthropic threats. However, the hydroelectric schemes and the improvement of the road system in southern Amazonia pose an imminent threat to the species.     

浙江清凉峰国家级自然保护区华南梅花鹿栖息地适宜性评价

理解环境因子对物种空间分布的影响,评价栖息地适宜性现状并预测潜在分布区,对野生动物的管理和保护具有重要意义。华南梅花鹿（Cervus pseudaxis）属国家I级重点保护野生动物,现仅分布于安徽、浙江、江西等狭小片区内。浙江清凉峰自然保护区千顷塘区域是华南梅花鹿的重要分布区,但其面积较小,严重限制了华南梅花鹿的种群发展,亟需对千顷塘及周边区域的栖息地质量进行评价,为华南梅花鹿的保护和野外放归提供科学依据。本研究利用红外相机监测千顷塘区域华南梅花鹿的分布,结合遥感等技术手段获得地形、植被、水源以及人为干扰等8种环境因子,利用MaxEnt构建华南梅花鹿栖息地适宜性模型,对以千顷塘为中心50 km×50 km的范围进行栖息地适宜性评价。研究结果表明,华南梅花鹿倾向于选择海拔1050-1240 m范围内,距道路100-900 m和距人口聚居区3200-3800 m的相对平缓地带。千顷塘区域华南梅花鹿栖息地保护较好,适宜栖息地面积为2224 hm2,占该区域39.1%。千顷塘周边适宜性较高的区域主要为位于其西南部约10 km的山区,该区域为华南梅花鹿提供了3253 hm2的潜在适宜栖息地。建议降低保护区千顷塘区域内的人为干扰,并在其西南部山区尝试开展圈养种群的野外放归工作,以促进其种群发展。     

Effects of climate change on distribution and areas that protect two neotropical marsupials associated with aquatic environments

The contraction of the amount of suitable habitat due to climate change can result in a species becoming threatened with extinction. Strong evidence supports that this effect will be pronounced for several species of small mammals in the near future. We address these issues using the ensemble technique to generate potential distribution models for Neotropical marsupials associated with aquatic environments, Chironectes minimus and Lutreolina crassicaudata, and predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of these two species. We later evaluate the effectiveness of the Fully Protected Areas for the two species in the present and future scenarios. Based on our models, we recommend priority areas for the conservation of these species, emphasizing conservation efforts across borders between countries. Our results indicated that both species will suffer a significant restriction of their potential distributions until 2050. Our models predicted that the loss of suitable areas will be greater for C. minimus, with only ~33% of the original distribution area remaining. The models also indicated that the current system of Fully Protected Areas in the Neotropical region will protect L. crassicaudata in a small area of its current and future potential distribution, inserted in climatically stable areas (~14%). These scenarios for these species support strong impacts on the biodiversity protection in aquatic environments in the Neotropical region. We strongly recommend the priority planning and implementation of transboundary Fully Protected Areas in stable areas of distribution of these species to maintain the protection of these marsupials and the ecosystems to which they are associated.