Nest site fidelity and clutch frequency of loggerhead turtles are better elucidated by satellite telemetry than by nocturnal tagging efforts: Implications for stock estimation

Satellite telemetry and ground-based tagging studies are complementary methods to define the spatial and temporal patterns of nesting behavior by migratory sea turtles. Estimates of site fidelity and clutch frequencies are compared for satellite telemetry versus ground truth patrols over a 6 km stretch at a southwest Florida loggerhead (Caretta caretta) rookery. Site fidelity ranged from 1.9 km to 109.1 km for all nests deposited by a female within a season. The mean site fidelity was 28.1 km for all nests, but declined to 16.9 km if omitting the first nest. Nest frequency ranged from 2 to 8 nests per season, with a modal value of 5 nests. Satellite telemetry documented a mean nest frequency of 5.4 nests per female in comparison to 2.2 nests detected by monitoring patrols. The remigrant females had higher clutch frequency, were larger in size, and had higher site fidelity compared to newly tagged females. Satellite telemetry provided improved measurements of site fidelity and reveals a need for revised fecundity estimates. If measures of clutch frequency are representative of loggerhead assemblages nesting elsewhere within the South Florida grouping, the confidence bounds on Western Atlantic loggerhead stocks are approximately 32% lower than currently accounted for annual nesting individuals.     

Nest and breeding population abundance of Least Terns: assessing bias and variation in survey timing and methods

Methods commonly used to estimate the number of nests and size of the breeding population at colonies of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) and other waterbirds include walk‐through counts of nests (ground‐nest counts) and counts of incubating adults from the colony perimeter (incubating‐adult counts). The bias and variance of different methods and the comparability of repeated surveys versus once‐annual censuses are poorly understood. Our objectives were to assess (1) the potential bias and variation of the more rapid incubating‐adult counts compared to the time‐intensive, and presumably more accurate, ground‐nest counts, and (2) how accurately a once‐annual census captured peak nesting abundance. We studied nine Least Tern colonies at Cape Lookout National Seashore (CALO), North Carolina, from April to August 2010–2012. We analyzed observer and survey method agreement with concordance correlation coefficients (ρ_c). We deployed time‐lapse cameras at 156 nests and used repeated‐measures logistic regression to determine if the proportion of time spent incubating varied with colony, time of day, or time of season. We found substantial agreement in abundance estimates of Least Tern nests and incubating adults between observers and survey methods, and among different times of day and seasons (all comparisons ρ_c > 0.97). Least Terns incubated eggs 94% of the time on average during daylight hours, irrespective of colony, nesting stage, or month. Although the nesting peak at CALO occurred during the recommended census period for Least Terns, abundance estimates for surveys conducted at different times during that period varied by as much as 39%. We recommend conducting incubating‐adult counts to estimate nest and breeding population abundance of Least Terns or other waterbirds when vegetation or dunes do not obstruct views of nesting colonies. In addition, given the variation in abundance estimates for surveys conducted at different times during the recommended survey period, incubating‐adult counts should be performed at least twice during the census period, with the maximum count reported as peak nest abundance.     

Sea turtle species vary in their susceptibility to tropical cyclones

Severe climatic events affect all species, but there is little quantitative knowledge of how sympatric species react to such situations. We compared the reproductive seasonality of sea turtles that nest sympatrically with their vulnerability to tropical cyclones (in this study, “tropical cyclone” refers to tropical storms and hurricanes), which are increasing in severity due to changes in global climate. Storm surges significantly decreased reproductive output by lowering the number of nests that hatched and the number of hatchlings that emerged from nests, but the severity of this effect varied by species. Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) began nesting earliest and most offspring hatched before the tropical cyclone season arrived, resulting in little negative effect. Loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nested intermediately, and only nests laid late in the season were inundated with seawater during storm surges. Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nested last, and their entire nesting season occurred during the tropical cyclone season; this resulted in a majority (79%) of green turtle nests incubating in September, when tropical cyclones are most likely to occur. Since this timing overlaps considerably with the tropical cyclone season, the developing eggs and nests are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. Increases in the severity of tropical cyclones may cause green turtle nesting success to worsen in the future. However, published literature suggests that loggerhead turtles are nesting earlier in the season and shortening their nesting seasons in response to increasing sea surface temperatures caused by global climate change. This may cause loggerhead reproductive success to improve in the future because more nests will hatch before the onset of tropical cyclones. Our data clearly indicate that sympatric species using the same resources are affected differently by tropical cyclones due to slight variations in the seasonal timing of nesting, a key life history process.     

Earlier nesting by loggerhead sea turtles following sea surface warming

The onset of spring, noted by the timing of wildlife migratory and breeding behaviors, has been occurring earlier over the past few decades. Here, we examine 15 years of loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta, nesting patterns along a 40.5 km beach on Florida's Atlantic coast. This small section of beach is considered to be the most important nesting area for this threatened species in the western hemisphere. From 1989 to 2003, the annual number of nests fluctuated between 13 000 and 25 000 without a conspicuous trend; however, based on a regression analysis, the median nesting date became earlier by roughly 10 days. The Julian day of median nesting was significantly correlated with near‐shore, May sea surface temperatures that warmed an average of 0.8°C over this period. This marine example from warm temperate/subtropical waters represents another response of nature to recent climate trends.     

Accounting for Imperfect Detection Is Critical for Inferring Marine Turtle Nesting Population Trends

Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts of individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations of data. Population trends of threatened marine turtles worldwide are usually based on counts of nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years of nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for nesting loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) on Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual counts of nests and females, not corrected for imperfect detection, yield significant, positive trends in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling of CMR data that accounts for changes in imperfect detection reveals that the annual abundance of nesting females has remained essentially constant over the 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements in surveys or increased within-season nest-site fidelity in females, either of which would increase detection probability. For the first time in a marine turtle population, we compare results of population trend analyses that do and do not account for imperfect detection and demonstrate the potential for erroneous conclusions. Past assessments of marine turtle population trends based exclusively on count data should be interpreted with caution and re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally to population assessments of all species with imperfect detection.     

Impacts of nest predators and weather on reproductive success and population limitation in a long‐distance migratory songbird

Although avian nesting success is much studied, little is known about the relative importance of the factors that contribute to annual reproductive success and population limitation, especially for long‐distance migratory songbird species. We combined a field experiment limiting access to nests by mammalian predators with modeling of long‐term field data of American redstarts (Parulidae: Setophaga ruticilla) to assess the effects of multiple environmental variables on breeding success and population limitation. Experimental treatment (baffles placed around tree boles beneath active nests; n = 71) increased nesting success of this single‐brooded species significantly (77 vs 50% in controls; n = 343), demonstrating that scansorial mammals, primarily red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus and eastern chipmunks Tamias striatus, reduced reproductive success. Based on unbaffled nests (n = 466), daily nest survival varied annually, and was positively influenced by May temperature and negatively by sciurid nest predator abundance. Daily nest survival was also influenced positively by June rainfall, and declined with nest age but not with calendar date. Since nest failure was overwhelmingly caused by nest predation, these significant climate and nest‐age effects in our models are indirect, likely influencing nest predator and/or nesting bird behaviors that in turn influenced nest predation. Redstart population density had no effect on nesting success, after accounting for other factors. Annual reproductive success accounted for 34% of the variability in annual population change in redstarts in our study area. Our findings document 1) breeding season population limitation in this species, 2) a link between tree masting and bird population dynamics via mammal population fluctuations, 3) the independent contributions of summer versus winter population processes in a migratory species, and 4) the potential complexity of climate‐biotic interactions.     

Factors Affecting Daily Nest Survival of Burrowing Owls Within Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Colonies

ABSTRACT Identifying environmental parameters that influence probability of nest predation is important for developing and implementing effective management strategies for species of conservation concern. We estimated daily nest survival for a migratory population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in Wyoming, USA. We compared estimates based on 3 common approaches: apparent nesting success, Mayfield estimates, and a model-based logistic-exposure approach. We also examined whether 8 intrinsic and extrinsic factors affected daily nest survival in burrowing owls. Positive biases in apparent nest survival were low (3–6%), probably because prior knowledge of nest locations and colonial behavior among nesting pairs facilitated discovery of most nests early in the nesting cycle. Daily nest survival increased as the breeding season progressed, was negatively correlated with ambient temperature, was positively correlated with nest-burrow tunnel length, and decreased as the nesting cycle progressed. Environmental features were similar between failed and successful nests based on 95% confidence intervals, but the seasonal midpoint was earlier for failed nests (31 May) compared to successful nests (15 Jun). The large annual variation in nest survival (a 15.3% increase between 2003 and 2004) accentuates the importance of multiyear studies when estimating reproductive parameters and when examining the factors that affect those parameters. Failure to locate and monitor nests throughout the breeding season may yield biased estimates of nesting success in burrowing owls (and possibly other species), and some of the variation in nesting success among years and across study sites may be explained by annual and spatial variation in ambient temperature. Any management actions that result in fewer prairie dogs, shorter burrow lengths, or earlier nesting may adversely affect reproductive success of burrowing owls.     

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current ‘cold’ nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10–33 °C) and future ‘hot’ nests (27.0 °C, 14–37 °C). ‘Hot’ incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot‐incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold‐incubated (11%, 58%) or wild‐born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78– 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52– 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18–44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest‐site choices. Over the period 1992–2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest‐site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.     

Estimating nests not present at the time of breeding surveys: an important consideration in assessing nesting populations

ABSTRACT.   Counts of nest starts are often used as indicators of the size of avian nesting populations, or of avian productivity. However, the accuracy of single or repeated counts of unmarked nests over time for estimating seasonal numbers of nests may be strongly affected by nest events that fall in between survey dates, or that occurred prior to or after the survey period. Accuracy may also be affected by uncertainty in the interpretation of counts due to overlap between starting and ending dates of asynchronous nests during the intervisit interval. To measure the combined magnitude of these effects on survey accuracy, we overlaid a monthly "survey" regime on known initiation and ending dates of 2055 nests of ciconiiform birds. Assuming all nests present on the date of simulated survey were counted, monthly surveys underestimated the true number of nest starts by 24–64%, depending on species and year. Using a simple model, we also demonstrate that accuracy does not increase much as survey frequency increases, and that significant estimation error can occur over a wide range of nest success values and degrees of asynchrony. We suggest that (1) these biases can be significant for surveys of many kinds of nesting birds including some territorial passerines, (2) this bias cannot be addressed by increasing survey frequency, and (3) the degree of renesting may be of critical interest for inferring breeding population size from nest count data. We suggest three possible approaches for modeling this error.     

Loggerhead turtle eggshells as a source of maternal nuclear genomic DNA for population genetic studies

Tagging studies on nesting beaches are commonly used to estimate nesting frequency, remigration interval and nesting population size for marine turtle rookeries. Estimates of these demographic parameters from tagging projects may be biased because of the small scale of tagging efforts relative to female nest site fidelity and the logistical difficulty of intercepting all nesting females. Therefore, alternative and supplemental means of individual identification of nesting females are required. We demonstrate that maternal nuclear microsatellite DNA can be isolated from unincubated eggshells of the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) through comparison of DNA extracted from 59 eggs collected within 15 h of oviposition and DNA derived from skin samples from respective nesting females. Scorable microsatellite genotypes were produced in 897 of 994 (90.2%) single-locus egg amplifications attempted. Among eggs from known females, 730 of 748 (97.6%) single-locus, egg-derived genotypes matched the respective skin-derived genotypes. Allelic dropout was the most common type of error, followed by the presence of nonmaternal, presumably paternal, alleles. Genotypes derived from unincubated eggshells permit individual assignment of nests and therefore demographic parameter estimates for loggerhead turtle nesting populations, despite genotyping errors that require further optimization. Although sampling unincubated eggs is destructive, this technique is noninvasive to nesting females and is applicable in marine turtle population genetics studies when individual resolution is required but direct interception of nesting females is undesirable or logistically infeasible.     

Do long-term changes in sea surface temperature at the breeding areas affect the breeding dates and reproduction performance of Mediterranean loggerhead turtles? Implications for climate change

Global climate change is likely to have an important influence on the phenology, behaviour and population dynamics of many species. We investigate climatic related changes in the breeding phenology of Mediterranean loggerhead marine turtles Caretta caretta over a 19 year period and the potential relationship between these changes and reproductive success and performance. We found that the studied population has experienced fluctuating sea surface temperatures (SST) with an increasing trend during the last century. With increasing spring SST there is a trend towards earlier nesting. However, there is no significant relationship between SST and nesting season, defined as the duration between the first recorded emergence and the last nest laid. Our analyses indicate that marine turtles display phenological changes, and thus maintain favorable thermal conditions at the nesting sites. Furthermore, increasing spring SST was correlated with decreasing clutch size and increasing hatching success that resulted in an apparent lack of correlation between SST and hatchling production. This apparent independence might be misleading since it only holds for a limited range of SST values. Thus, if we estimate the effect of climate change on loggerhead population growth as neutral, based on the apparent independence between SST and total number of hatchlings, we will be underestimating the population extinction risk.     

Nest Success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in Colorado,USA

Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of concern for which little demographic information exists. To help fill this information gap, we investigated factors affecting nest success in two populations of Gunnison Sage-Grouse. We assessed the relative effects of (1) vegetation characteristics (e.g., shrub height, shrub cover, grass cover, and grass height), (2) temporal factors (e.g., year, timing of incubation initiation, and nest age), (3) precipitation, and (4) age of the nesting female (yearling or adult) on nest success rates. We found 177 nests in the Gunnison Basin population (that contains 85–90% of the species) from 2005–2010 and 20 nests in the San Miguel population (that contains < 10% of the species) from 2007–2010. Temporal factors had the greatest impact on nest success compared to vegetation characteristics, precipitation, and female age. Nest success varied considerably among years ranging from 4.0%-60.2% in Gunnison Basin and from 12.9%- 51.9% in San Miguel. Nests that were initiated earlier in the breeding season had higher nest success (at least one egg hatches). Daily nest survival rates decreased during the course of incubation. None of the vegetation characteristics we examined were strongly related to nest success.     

Bias in aerial estimates of the number of nests in White Ibis and Great Egret colonies

ABSTRACT Estimating detection error, as well as the magnitude of other potential survey biases, is essential when sampling efforts play a role in the estimation of population size and management of wildlife populations. We quantified visual biases in aerial surveys of nesting wading birds (Ciconiiformes) in colonies in the Florida Everglades using a negative binomial count regression model to compare numbers of nests in quadrats counted on the ground with numbers estimated from aerial photographs of the same quadrats. The model also allowed the determination of degree of difference between monitoring results based upon such factors as nest density, vegetative cover, and nest turnover rates. Aerial surveys of White Ibis (Eudocimus albus) colonies underestimated the true number of nests found during ground counts by 11.1%, and underestimates were significantly greater (P= 0.047) in a colony with high nest turnover. Error rates did not differ for quadrats that varied in the density of White Ibis nests did not differ, and visual bias did not increase with vegetative complexity (P= 0.73). Estimates of nest density in colonies of Great Egrets (Ardea alba) based on aerial surveys were higher than ground counts for 38% of the quadrats sampled, and mean visual bias was 23.1%. Species misidentification likely contributed to visibility bias for Great Egrets in our study, with some Snowy Egrets almost certainly mistaken for Great Egrets in aerial photos. Biases of the magnitude we observed fro Great Egrets and White Ibises can mask true population trends in long‐term monitoring and, therefore, we recommend that detection probability be explicitly evaluated when conducting aerial surveys of nesting birds.     

Censusing chimpanzees in the Budongo Forest,Uganda

It is difficult to make valid comparisons of chimpanzee densities among sites because observers calculate them using different methods. We argue that nest count estimates of density are preferable to densities from home range estimates because of the problems of defining home range. There are many problems associated with nest count methods, some of which have not been addressed in previous studies. In 1992, we censused chimpanzees in the Budongo Forest using three methods;the standing crop nest count (SCNC), the marked nest count (MNC), and visual sightings of the animals (VS). Each method is based on standard line transect techniques. Of 96 nests monitored for decay rate,those constructed in the dry seasons decayed faster than those in the wet seasons. All- day follows of individual chimpanzees and observations of nesting chimpanzees at dusk showed that about 15.8% of night nests were reused,17.5% of the population did not build nests, and 18.8% of nests were first constructed as day nests. Given the variability in nest decay rates, we argue that MNC is a better method than SCNC because it avoids having to calculate decay rates.     

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.     

Increased nest predation in a declining and threatened Temminck's Stint Calidris temminckii population

We measured nesting success of the Temminck's Stint Calidris temminckii along the Finnish Bothnian Bay coast during 19 breeding seasons (1983–2001) and conducted a population census (1999–2002). We found 105 pairs, showing a marked decline from the previous survey (170 pairs 1987–95). Of the 424 'known-fate' nests, 47% hatched. Depredation caused 79.9% of the nest losses. Nesting failures increased from 1983–91 to 1992–2001 owing to a rise in nest predation. The proportion of failed nests that failed because of predation rose from 48.9 to 87.7%. When only depredated nests were considered as losses, Mayfield nest survival probability over the incubation period dropped from 69 to 31% (461 nests). This pattern emerged both in man-made and in natural habitats. Survival probability was independent of habitat type (natural vs. man-made). In an experiment involving videotaping of dummy nests, Common Gull Larus canus and Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres were found to be the most important egg predators.     

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first‐year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.     

Assessing climate change associated sea‐level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones,photogrammetry and a novel GPS system

Climate change associated sea‐level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species, including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low‐cost with low accuracy or high‐cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone‐based photogrammetry and a low‐cost and portable real‐time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here, we applied this method as a case‐study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (a) regions with highest nest densities, (b) nest elevation by species and beach, and (c) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration.     

Merriam's Turkey Nest Survival and Factors Affecting Nest Predation by Mammals

Abstract: Nest success is an important parameter affecting population fluctuations of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). Factors influencing mammalian predation on turkey nests are complicated and not well understood. Therefore, we assessed nest hazard risk by testing competing hypotheses of Merriam's turkey (M. g. merriami) nest survival in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystem during 2001–2003. We collected nesting information on 83 female Merriam's turkeys; annual nest success averaged 50% for adult females (range = 45–59%) and 83% for yearling females (range = 75–100%). Proportional hazard modeling indicated that precipitation increased the hazard of nest mortality. However, estimated hazard of nest predation was lowered when incubating females had greater shrub cover and visual obstruction around nests. Coyotes (Canis latrans) were the primary predator on turkey nests. We hypothesize that precipitation is the best predictor of nest survival for first nests because coyotes use olfaction effectively to find nesting females during wet periods. Temporally, as the nesting season progressed, precipitation declined and vegetation cover increased and coyotes may have more difficulty detecting nests under these conditions later in the nesting period. The interaction of concealment cover with precipitation indicated that nest hazard risk from daily precipitation was reduced with greater shrub cover. Management activities that promote greater shrub cover may partially offset the negative effects of greater precipitation events.     

Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses

Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest‐building in animals directly, for example via sea‐level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature‐dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest‐building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long‐term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short‐term adaptations, the ability of nest‐building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest‐building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest‐building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest‐building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short‐ and long‐term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the most urgent attention for further research.