Dietary Fat Intake and Risk of Gastric Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Background and Objectives

Consumption of dietary fat has been reported to be associated with gastric cancer risk, but the results of epidemiologic studies remain inconsistent. We conducted a meta-analysis to summarize the evidence regarding the association between dietary fat intake and gastric cancer risk.

Methods

A comprehensive search of PubMed and EMBASE was performed to identify observational studies providing quantitative estimates between dietary fat and gastric cancer risk. Random effects model was used to calculate the summary relative risk(SRR) in the highest versus lowest analysis. Categorical dose-response analysis was conducted to quantify the association between dietary fat intake and gastric cancer risk. Heterogeneity among studies was evaluated using I² and tau2(between study variance)statistics. Subgroup analysis and publication bias analysis were also performed.

Results

Twenty-two articles were included in the meta-analysis. The SRR for gastric cancer was 1.18 for individuals with highest intake versus lowest intake of total fat (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999–1.39; n = 28; P< 0.001; tau² = 0.12; I² = 69.5%, 95% CI: 55%-79%) and 1.08 with a daily increase in total fat intake (20 g/d) (95%CI: 1.02–1.14; n = 6; P = 0.09; tau² = 0.002; I² = 46.8%, 95% CI: 0%-79%). Positive association between saturated fat intake (SRR = 1.31; 95%CI: 1.09–1.58;n = 18;P<0.001; tau² = 0.08; I² = 60.6%, 95% CI: 34%-76%), inverse association between polyunsaturated fat intake (SRR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.65–0.92; n = 16; P = 0.003; tau² = 0.06; I² = 56.2%, 95% CI: 23%-75%) and vegetable fat intake (SRR = 0.55; 95%CI: 0.41–0.74; n = 4;P = 0.12; tau² = 0.04; I² = 48.6%, 95% CI: 0%-83%), and no association between monounsaturated fat intake (SRR = 1.00; 95%CI: 0.79–1.25; n = 14; P< 0.001; tau² = 0.10; I² = 63.0%, 95% CI: 34%-79%) and animal fat intake (SRR = 1.10; 95%CI: 0.90–1.33; n = 6; P = 0.13;tau² = 0.02; I² = 42.0%, 95% CI: 0%-70%) and gastric cancer risk were observed.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that intake of total fat is potentially positively associated with gastric cancer risk, and specific subtypes of fats account for different effects. However, these findings should be confirmed by further well-designed cohort studieswith detailed dietary assessments and strict control of confounders.     

Serum Lipids and Breast Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Purpose

Epidemiologic studies exploring causal associations between serum lipids and breast cancer risk have reported contradictory results. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to evaluate these associations.

Methods

Relevant studies were identified by searching PubMed and EMBASE through April 2015. We included prospective cohort studies that reported relative risk (RR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations of specific lipid components (i.e., total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and triglycerides [TG]) with breast cancer risk. Either a fixed- or a random-effects model was used to calculate pooled RRs.

Results

Fifteen prospective cohort studies involving 1,189,635 participants and 23,369 breast cancer cases were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled RRs of breast cancer for the highest versus lowest categories were 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86–1.07) for TC, 0.92 (95% CI: 0.73–1.16) for HDL-C, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.77–1.06) for LDL-C, and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.86–1.00) for TG. Notably, for HDL-C, a significant reduction of breast cancer risk was observed among postmenopausal women (RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64–0.93) but not among premenopausal women. Similar trends of the associations were observed in the dose-response analysis.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that serum levels of TG but not TC and LDL-C may be inversely associated with breast cancer risk. Serum HDL-C may also protect against breast carcinogenesis among postmenopausal women.     

Prognostic Value of Circulating Tumor Cells in Ovarian Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Background

The prognostic value of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) in ovarian cancer has been investigated in previous studies, but the results are controversial. Therefore we performed a meta-analysis to systematically review these data and evaluate the value of CTCs in ovarian cancer.

Materials and Methods

A literary search for relevant studies was performed on Embase, Medline and Web of Science databases. Then pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for survival with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), subgroup analyses, sensitivity analyses, meta-regression analyses and publication bias were conducted.

Results

This meta-analysis is based on 11 publications and comprises a total of 1129 patients. The prognostic value of the CTC status was significant in overall survival (OS) (HR, 1.61;95% CI,1.22–2.13) and progression-free survival (PFS)/disease-free survival (DFS) (HR, 1.44; 95%CI, 1.18–1.75). Furthermore, subgroup analysis revealed that the value of CTC status in OS was significant in "RT-PCR" subgroup (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.34–3.03), whereas it was not significant in "CellSearch" subgroup (HR, 1.15; 95% CI 0.45–2.92) and "other ICC" subgroup (HR, 1.09; 95% CI 0.62–1.90). The presence of CTC was also associated with an increased CA-125 (OR, 4.07; 95%CI, 1.87–8.85).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates that CTC status is associated with OS and PFS/DFS in ovarian cancer.     

Impact on Clinical and Cost Outcomes of a Centralized Approach to Acute Stroke Care in London: A Comparative Effectiveness Before and After Model

Background

In July 2010 a new multiple hub-and-spoke model for acute stroke care was implemented across the whole of London, UK, with continuous specialist care during the first 72 hours provided at 8 hyper-acute stroke units (HASUs) compared to the previous model of 30 local hospitals receiving acute stroke patients. We investigated differences in clinical outcomes and costs between the new and old models.

Methods

We compared outcomes and costs ‘before’ (July 2007–July 2008) vs. ‘after’ (July 2010–June 2011) the introduction of the new model, adjusted for patient characteristics and national time trends in mortality and length of stay. We constructed 90-day and 10-year decision analytic models using data from population based stroke registers, audits and published sources. Mortality and length of stay were modelled using survival analysis.

Findings

In a pooled sample of 307 patients ‘before’ and 3156 patients ‘after’, survival improved in the ‘after’ period (age adjusted hazard ratio 0.54; 95% CI 0.41–0.72). The predicted survival rates at 90 days in the deterministic model adjusted for national trends were 87.2% ‘before’ % (95% CI 86.7%–87.7%) and 88.7% ‘after’ (95% CI 88.6%–88.8%); a relative reduction in deaths of 12% (95% CI 8%–16%). Based on a cohort of 6,438 stroke patients, the model produces a total cost saving of £5.2 million per year at 90 days (95% CI £4.9-£5.5 million; £811 per patient).

Conclusion

A centralized model for acute stroke care across an entire metropolitan city appears to have reduced mortality for a reduced cost per patient, predominately as a result of reduced hospital length of stay.     

Risk and Prognosis of Bloodstream Infections among Patients on Chronic Hemodialysis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background and Objectives

Infections are common complications among patients on chronic hemodialysis. This population-based cohort study aims to estimate risk and case fatality of bloodstream infection among chronic hemodialysis patients.

Methods

In this population-based cohort study we identified residents with end-stage renal disease in Central and North Jutland, Denmark who had hemodialysis as first renal replacement therapy (hemodialysis patients) during 1995–2010. For each hemodialysis patient, we sampled 19 persons from the general population matched on age, gender, and municipality. Information on positive blood cultures was obtained from regional microbiology databases. All persons were observed from cohort entry until first episode of bloodstream infection, emigration, death, or end of hemodialysis treatment, whichever came first. Incidence-rates and incidence-rate ratios were computed and risk factors for bloodstream infection assessed by Poisson regression. Case fatality was compared by Cox regression.

Results

Among 1792 hemodialysis patients and 33 618 matched population controls, we identified 461 and 1126 first episodes of bloodstream infection, respectively. Incidence rates of first episode of bloodstream infection were 13.7 (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.5–15.0) per 100 person-years among hemodialysis patients and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.50–0.56) per 100 person-years among population controls. In hemodialysis patients, the most common causative microorganisms were Staphylococcus aureus (43.8%) and Escherichia coli (12.6%). The 30-day case fatality was similar among hemodialysis patients and population controls 16% (95% CI, 13%–20%) vs. 18% (95% CI, 15%–20%).

Conclusions

Hemodialysis patients have extraordinary high risk of bloodstream infection while short-term case fatality following is similar to that of population controls.     

Atrial Fibrillation as a Marker of Occult Cancer

Background

Recent studies suggest that cancer increases risk of atrial fibrillation. Whether atrial fibrillation is a marker for underlying occult cancer is unknown.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study (1980–2011) of all Danish patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation. To examine cancer risk, we computed absolute risk at 3 months and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by comparing observed cancer incidence among patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation with that expected based on national cancer incidence during the period.

Results

Median follow-up time was 3.4 years among 269 742 atrial fibrillation patients. Within 3 months of follow-up, 6656 cancers occurred (absolute risk, 2.5%; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 2.4%–2.5%) versus 1302 expected, yielding a SIR of 5.11; 95% CI, 4.99–5.24. Associations were particularly strong for cancers of the lung, kidney, colon, ovary, and for non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma. The SIR within 3 months of follow-up was 7.02; 95% CI, 6.76–7.28 for metastatic and 3.53; 95% CI, 3.38–3.68 for localized cancer. Beyond 3 months of follow-up, overall cancer risk was modestly increased (SIR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.12–1.15).

Conclusion

Patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation had a markedly increased relative risk of a cancer diagnosis within the next three months, however, corresponding absolute risk was small.     

Occupational Exposure to Hydrazine and Subsequent Risk of Lung Cancer: 50-Year Follow-Up

Purpose

Hydrazine is carcinogenic in animals, but there is inadequate evidence to determine if it is carcinogenic in humans. This study aimed to evaluate the association between hydrazine exposure and the risk of lung cancer.

Methods

The cause specific mortality rates of a cohort of 427 men who were employed at an English factory that produced hydrazine between 1945 and 1971 were compared with national mortality rates.

Results

By the end of December 2012 205 deaths had occurred. For men in the highest exposure category with greater than two years exposure and after more than ten years since first exposure the relative risks compared with national rates were: 0.85 (95% CI: 0.18–2.48) for lung cancer, 0.61 (95% CI: 0.07–2.21) for cancers of the digestive system, and 0.44 (95% CI: 0.05–1.57) for other cancers.

Conclusions

After 50 years of follow up, the results provide no evidence of an increased risk of death from lung cancer or death from any other cause.     

The Health Effects of Passive Smoking: An Overview of Systematic Reviews Based on Observational Epidemiological Evidence

Purpose

We aim to systematically summarize the available epidemiological evidence to identify the impact of environmental tobacco smoke on health.

Methods

A systematic literature search of PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus for meta-analyses was conducted through January 2015. We included systematic reviews that investigated the association between passive smoking and certain diseases. Quantitative outcomes of association between passive smoking and the risk of certain diseases were summarized.

Results

Sixteen meta-analyses covering 130 cohort studies, 159 case-control studies, and 161 cross-sectional studies and involving 25 diseases or health problems were reviewed. Passive smoking appears not to be significantly associated with eight diseases or health problems, but significantly elevates the risk for eleven specific diseases or health problems, including invasive meningococcal disease in children (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.63–2.92), cervical cancer (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.35–2.21), Neisseria meningitidis carriage (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.19–2.36), Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.33–2.07), lower respiratory infections in infancy (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.33–1.51), food allergy (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.12–1.83), and so on.

Conclusions

Our overview of systematic reviews of observational epidemiological evidence suggests that passive smoking is significantly associated with an increasing risk of many diseases or health problems, especially diseases in children and cancers.     

The Epidemiology of Hepatitis C Virus in the Fertile Crescent: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective

To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in countries of the Fertile Crescent region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), namely Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.

Methods

We systematically reviewed and synthesized available records of HCV incidence and prevalence following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were implemented using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model with inverse weighting to estimate the country-specific HCV prevalence among the various at risk population groups.

Results

We identified eight HCV incidence and 240 HCV prevalence measures in the Fertile Crescent. HCV sero-conversion risk among hemodialysis patients was 9.2% in Jordan and 40.3% in Iraq, and ranged between 0% and 3.5% among other populations in Iraq over different follow-up times. Our meta-analyses estimated HCV prevalence among the general population at 0.2% in Iraq (range: 0–7.2%; 95% CI: 0.1–0.3%), 0.3% in Jordan (range: 0–2.0%; 95% CI: 0.1–0.5%), 0.2% in Lebanon (range: 0–3.4%; 95% CI: 0.1–0.3%), 0.2% in Palestine (range: 0–9.0%; 95% CI: 0.2–0.3%), and 0.4% in Syria (range: 0.3–0.9%; 95% CI: 0.4–0.5%). Among populations at high risk, HCV prevalence was estimated at 19.5% in Iraq (range: 0–67.3%; 95% CI: 14.9–24.5%), 37.0% in Jordan (range: 21–59.5%; 95% CI: 29.3–45.0%), 14.5% in Lebanon (range: 0–52.8%; 95% CI: 5.6–26.5%), and 47.4% in Syria (range: 21.0–75.0%; 95% CI: 32.5–62.5%). Genotypes 4 and 1 appear to be the dominant circulating strains.

Conclusions

HCV prevalence in the population at large appears to be below 1%, lower than that in other MENA sub-regions, and tending towards the lower end of the global range. However, there is evidence for ongoing HCV transmission within medical facilities and among people who inject drugs (PWID). Migration dynamics appear to have played a role in determining the circulating genotypes. HCV prevention efforts should be targeted, and focus on infection control in clinical settings and harm reduction among PWID.     

The Association of Low-To-Moderate Alcohol Consumption with Breast Cancer Subtypes Defined by Hormone Receptor Status

Background

Alcohol is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer, but pathways involved in alcohol-related breast carcinogenesis are not clearly defined. We examined the association between low-to-moderate alcohol intake and breast cancer subtypes by tumor hormone receptor status.

Materials and Methods

A hospital-based case-control study was performed in 585 cases and 1,170 controls. Information on alcohol intake and other risk factors was collected via a questionnaire. Logistic regression was used for analyses. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

The odds ratio of breast cancer was 1.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21–2.53) in women who consumed ≤5 drinks/week, and 3.13 (95% CI: 1.81–5.43) in women who consumed >5 drinks/week, both compared with non-drinkers for ≥10 years, after adjustment for age and other confounders. The association of alcohol intake with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer was stronger than with estrogen receptor-negative: the odds ratio per 1 category increase was 2.05 (95% CI: 1.49–2.82) and 1.29 (95% CI: 0.85–1.94) (P-heterogeneity = 0.07). There was no evidence of an interaction between alcohol intake and menopausal status (P = 0.19) in overall group; however, it was significant in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (P = 0.04).

Conclusions

Low-to-moderate alcohol intake is associated with the risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer with the strongest association in postmenopausal women. Since alcohol intake is a modifiable risk factor of breast cancer, every woman should be informed and advised to control alcohol use.     

Hepatitis C Virus Epidemiology in Djibouti,Somalia, Sudan,and Yemen: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objectives

To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and assess country-specific population-level HCV prevalence in four countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Methods

Reports of HCV prevalence were systematically reviewed as per PRISMA guidelines. Pooled HCV prevalence estimates in different risk populations were conducted when the number of measures per risk category was at least five.

Results

We identified 101 prevalence estimates. Pooled HCV antibody prevalence in the general population in Somalia, Sudan and Yemen was 0.9% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.3%–1.9%), 1.0% (95%CI: 0.3%–1.9%) and 1.9% (95%CI: 1.4%–2.6%), respectively. The only general population study from Djibouti reported a prevalence of 0.3% (CI: 0.2%–0.4%) in blood donors. In high-risk populations (e.g., haemodialysis and haemophilia patients), pooled HCV prevalence was 17.3% (95%CI: 8.6%–28.2%) in Sudan. In Yemen, three studies of haemodialysis patients reported HCV prevalence between 40.0%-62.7%. In intermediate-risk populations (e.g.. healthcare workers, in patients and men who have sex with men), pooled HCV prevalence was 1.7% (95%CI: 0.0%–4.9%) in Somalia and 0.6% (95%CI: 0.4%–0.8%) in Sudan.

Conclusion

National HCV prevalence in Yemen appears to be higher than in Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan as well as most other MENA countries; but otherwise prevalence levels in this subregion are comparable to global levels. The high HCV prevalence in patients who have undergone clinical care appears to reflect ongoing transmission in clinical settings. HCV prevalence in people who inject drugs remains unknown.     

Long Term Association between Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Mortality in a Cohort of 4379 Men

Objective

A number of observational studies have shown an inverse association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and total mortality, but a reverse J-shaped association has also been reported. In a large nested case-control study, serum-25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) was positively associated with incident prostate cancer. Based on the same study population, the primary aim of the present study was to investigate the association between s-25(OH)D and total mortality.

Methods

Men participating in population based health screenings during 1981–1991 and enrolled in a nested case-control study were followed throughout 2007 with respect to all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

In men with prostate cancer (n = 2282), there was a significant inverse association between s-25(OH)D and total mortality after controlling for potential confounders (HR = 1.25 (95% CI 1.05–1.50), s-25(OH)D <50 nmol/l versus s-25(OH)D ≥50 nmol/l). The corresponding figure among controls (n = 2147) was HR = 1.15 (95% CI 0.88–1.50) and in the total study population HR = 1.19 (95% CI 1.03–1.38). For cause-specific deaths, we found no significant associations.

Conclusions

In this study population, s-25(OH)D was inversely associated with total mortality during more than two decades of follow-up, despite, as previous reported, high s-25(OH)D was associated with increased risk of prostate cancer.     

Benefits of Bifidobacterium breve M-16V Supplementation in Preterm Neonates - A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials report that probiotics reduce the risk of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm neonates.

Aim

To determine whether routine probiotic supplementation (RPS) to preterm neonates would reduce the incidence of NEC.

Methods

The incidence of NEC ≥ Stage II and all-cause mortality was compared for an equal period of 24 months ‘before’ (Epoch 1) and ‘after’ (Epoch 2) RPS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16V in neonates <34 weeks. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to adjust for relevant confounders.

Results

A total of 1755 neonates (Epoch I vs. II: 835 vs. 920) with comparable gestation and birth weights were admitted. There was a significant reduction in NEC ≥ Stage II: 3% vs. 1%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.43 (95%CI: 0.21–0.87); ‘NEC ≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality’: 9% vs. 5%, aOR = 0.53 (95%CI: 0.32–0.88); but not all-cause mortality alone: 7% vs. 4%, aOR = 0.58 (95% CI: 0.31–1.06) in Epoch II. The benefits in neonates <28 weeks did not reach statistical significance: NEC ≥ Stage II: 6% vs. 3%, aOR 0.51 (95%CI: 0.20–1.27), ‘NEC ≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality’, 21% vs. 14%, aOR = 0.59 (95%CI: 0.29–1.18); all-cause mortality: 17% vs. 11%, aOR = 0.63 (95%CI: 0.28–1.41). There was no probiotic sepsis.

Conclusion

RPS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16V was associated with decreased NEC≥ Stage II and ‘NEC≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality’ in neonates <34 weeks. Large sample size is required to assess the potential benefits of RPS in neonates <28 weeks.     

Risk of Gastrointestinal Cancers among Patients with Appendectomy: A Large-Scale Swedish Register-Based Cohort Study during 1970-2009

Background

Removal of the appendix might induce physiological changes in the gastrointestinal tract, and subsequently play a role in carcinogenesis. Therefore, we conducted a nationwide register-based cohort study in Sweden to investigate whether appendectomy is associated with altered risks of gastrointestinal cancers.

Methods

A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Swedish national registries, including 480,382 eligible patients followed during the period of 1970–2009 for the occurrence of site-specific gastrointestinal cancer (esophageal/gastric/colon/rectal cancer). Outcome and censoring information was collected by linkage to health and demography registers. We examined the incidence of appendectomy in Sweden using data from 1987–2009. We also calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to estimate the relative gastrointestinal cancer risk through comparison to the general population.

Results

We noted an overall decrease in the age-standardized incidence of appendectomy among the entire Swedish population from 189.3 to 105.6 per 100,000 individuals between 1987 and 2009. Grouped by different discharge diagnosis, acute appendicitis, incidental appendectomy, and entirely negative appendectomy continuously decreased over the study period, while the perforation ratio (18%–23%) stayed relatively constant. Compared to the general population, no excess cancer risk was observed for gastrointestinal cancers under study with the exception of a marginally elevated risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma (SIR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09–1.58).

Conclusions

In Sweden, the incidence of appendectomy and acute appendicitis has decreased during 1987–2009. No excess gastrointestinal cancer risks were observed among these appendectomized patients, with the possible exception of esophageal adenocarcinoma.     

Risk of Gastric Cancer by Water Source: Evidence from the Golestan Case-Control Study

Background

Gastric cancer (GC) is the world’s fifth most common cancer, and the third leading cause of cancer-related death. Over 70% of incident cases and deaths occur in developing countries. We explored whether disparities in access to improved drinking water sources were associated with GC risk in the Golestan Gastric Cancer Case Control Study.

Methods and Findings

306 cases and 605 controls were matched on age, gender, and place of residence. We conducted unconditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, marital status, education, head of household education, place of birth and residence, homeownership, home size, wealth score, vegetable consumption, and H. pylori seropositivity. Fully-adjusted ORs were 0.23 (95% CI: 0.05–1.04) for chlorinated well water, 4.58 (95% CI: 2.07–10.16) for unchlorinated well water, 4.26 (95% CI: 1.81–10.04) for surface water, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.61–2.03) for water from cisterns, and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.20–2.69) for all unpiped sources, compared to in-home piped water. Comparing unchlorinated water to chlorinated water, we found over a two-fold increased GC risk (OR 2.37, 95% CI: 1.56–3.61).

Conclusions

Unpiped and unchlorinated drinking water sources, particularly wells and surface water, were significantly associated with the risk of GC.     

Fracture Risk and Adjuvant Therapies in Young Breast Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study

Background

Breast cancer survivors have an increased risk of bone fracture. But the risk among young patients with adjuvant therapies remains unknown. This population-based study is aimed to assess the incidence and risk of fracture among young (age of 20 to 39 years) breast cancer patients who received adjuvant therapies.

Methods

From January 2001 to December 2007, 5,146 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients were enrolled from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) in Taiwan. Patients were observed for a maximum of 6 years to determine the incidence of newly onset fracture. Kaplan Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the risk of fracture in young breast cancer patients who received adjuvant treatments.

Results

Of the total 5,146 young (age of 20 to 39 years) breast cancer patients, the Cox multivariate proportional hazards analysis showed that AIs, radiotherapy, and monoclonal antibodies were significantly associated with a high risk of fracture. Moreover, patients who received AIs for more than 180 days had a high hazard ratio (HR) of 1.77 (95% CI = 0.68–4.57), and patients who received more than four radiotherapy visits had a high HR of 2.54 (95% CI = 1.07–6.06). Under the site-specific analysis, young breast cancer patients who received AIs had the highest risk of hip fracture (HR = 8.520, 95% CI = 1.711–42.432, p < 0.04), whereas patients who received radiotherapy had the highest risk of vertebral fracture (HR = 5.512, 95% CI = 1.847–16.451, p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Young breast cancer patients who are receiving AIs, radiotherapy or monoclonal antibody need to be more careful for preventing fracture events. Breast cancer treatment plans are suggested to incorporate fracture prevention interventions.     

Driving following Kava Use and Road Traffic Injuries: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Fiji (TRIP 14)

Objective

To investigate the association between kava use and the risk of four-wheeled motor vehicle crashes in Fiji. Kava is a traditional beverage commonly consumed in many Pacific Island Countries. Herbal anxiolytics containing smaller doses of kava are more widely available.

Methods

Data for this population-based case-control study were collected from drivers of ‘case’ vehicles involved in serious injury-involved crashes (where at least one road user was killed or admitted to hospital for 12 hours or more) and ‘control’ vehicles representative of ‘driving time’ in the study base. Structured interviewer administered questionnaires collected self-reported participant data on demographic characteristics and a range of risk factors including kava use and potential confounders. Unconditional logistic regression models estimated odds ratios relating to the association between kava use and injury-involved crash risk.

Findings

Overall, 23% and 4% of drivers of case and control vehicles, respectively, reported consuming kava in the 12 hours prior to the crash or road survey. After controlling for assessed confounders, driving following kava use was associated with a four-fold increase in the odds of crash involvement (Odds ratio: 4.70; 95% CI: 1.90–11.63). The related population attributable risk was 18.37% (95% CI: 13.77–22.72). Acknowledging limited statistical power, we did not find a significant interaction in this association with concurrent alcohol use.

Conclusion

In this study conducted in a setting where recreational kava consumption is common, driving following the use of kava was associated with a significant excess of serious-injury involved road crashes. The precautionary principle would suggest road safety strategies should explicitly recommend avoiding driving following kava use, particularly in communities where recreational use is common.     

Predictors for Stroke and Death in Non-Anticoagulated Asian Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: The Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of stroke and death. Data on the predictors for stroke and death in ‘real-world’ AF patients are limited, especially from large prospective Asian cohorts.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey designed to enroll all AF patients who visited the participating medical institutions in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Follow-up data were available for 3,304 patients (median follow-up period 741 days). We explored the predictors for ‘death, stroke, and systemic embolism (SE)’ during follow-up in 1,541 patients not receiving oral anticoagulants (OAC) at baseline.

Results

The mean age was 73.1 ± 12.5 years, and 673 (44%) patients were female. The mean CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores were 1.76 and 3.08, respectively. Cumulative events were as follows: stroke/SE in 61 (4%) and death in 230 (15%), respectively. On multivariate analysis, advanced age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24–2.29), underweight (body mass index <18.5 kg/m²) (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.25–2.32), previous stroke/SE/transient ischemic attack (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.25–2.30), heart failure (HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.17–2.15), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.16–2.02), and anemia (HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.78–3.28) were independent predictors for death/stroke/SE. Cumulative numbers of these 6 risk predictors could stratify the incidence of death/stroke/SE in patients without OAC, as well as those with OAC in our registry.

Conclusions

Advanced age, underweight, previous stroke/SE/transient ischemic attack, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and anemia were independently associated with the risk of death/stroke/SE in non-anticoagulated Japanese AF patients.     

Recurrence of Subdural Haematoma in a Population-Based Cohort – Risks and Predictive Factors

Objectives

To estimate the risks of and identify predictors for recurrent subdural haematoma in surgically and conservatively treated patients.

Methods

The cohort comprised all individuals diagnosed with a first-time subdural hematoma in Denmark 1996–2011. Information on potential predictors was retrieved from the Danish health registers. Cumulative recurrence risks were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Rate ratios (RR) were estimated using Poisson regression.

Results

Among 10,158 individuals with a subdural hematoma, 1,555 had a recurrent event. The cumulative risk of recurrent subdural hematoma was 9% at 4 weeks after the primary bleeding, increasing to and stabilising at 14% after one year. Predictors associated with recurrence were: Male sex (RR 1.60, 95% CI:1.43–1.80), older age (>70 years compared to 20–49 years; RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21–1.65), alcohol addiction (RR 1.20, 95% CI:1.04–1.37), surgical treatment (RR 1.76, 95% CI:1.58–1.96), trauma diagnoses (RR 1.14, 95% CI:1.03–1.27), and diabetes mellitus (RR 1.40, 95% CI:1.11–1.74). Out of a selected combination of risk factors, the highest cumulative 1-year recurrence risks for subdural hematoma of 25% (compared to 14% for all patients) was found in surgically treated males with diabetes mellitus.

Conclusions

The recurrence risk of subdural hematoma is largely limited to the first year. Patient characteristics including co-morbidities greatly influence the recurrence risk of SDH, suggesting that individualized prognostic guidance and follow-up is needed.     

Association between Alcohol Consumption and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Case-Control Study

Purpose

Evidence is inconsistent regarding alcohol and pancreatic cancer risk, although heavy drinking may increase risk.

Methods

A population-based case-control study was conducted using 345 pancreas cancer cases diagnosed 2011–2012 and 1,285 frequency-matched controls from Ontario, Canada. Logistic regression was used to evaluate alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer risk; data was also stratified by sex and smoking status to assess interaction.

Results

Alcohol consumption was not associated with pancreatic cancer risk (age-adjusted odds ratio=0.78, 95% CI: 0.58, 1.05 for 1 - 3 drinks/week; age-adjusted odds ratio=0.86, 95% CI: 0.63, 1.17 for 4 - 20 drinks/week), however there was a non-significant increased risk for heavy drinkers consuming ≥21 drinks/week (age-adjusted odds ratio=1.35, 95% CI: 0.81, 2.27). Cigarette smoking modified the alcohol-cancer relationship; among current smokers, heavy alcohol consumption was associated with a significantly increased pancreatic cancer risk (age-adjusted odds ratio=4.04, 95% CI: 1.58, 10.37), whereas this significant association with heavy drinking was not observed among non-smokers (age-adjusted odds ratio=2.01, 95% CI: 0.50, 8.18). Furthermore, light – moderate alcohol intake was associated with increased pancreas cancer risk among current smokers.

Conclusions

While alcohol was not significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk, smoking status modified this relationship such that among current smokers, alcohol intake was associated with a greater than two-fold increased risk of pancreatic cancer. The results should be interpreted with caution due to small sample sizes within subgroups and correction for multiple comparisons should be considered. These findings should be replicated in larger studies where more precise estimates of risk can be obtained.