A balance of winners and losers in the Anthropocene

Scientists disagree about the nature of biodiversity change. While there is evidence for widespread declines from population surveys, assemblage surveys reveal a mix of declines and increases. These conflicting conclusions may be caused by the use of different metrics: assemblage metrics may average out drastic changes in individual populations. Alternatively, differences may arise from data sources: populations monitored individually, versus whole‐assemblage monitoring. To test these hypotheses, we estimated population change metrics using assemblage data. For a set of 23 241 populations, 16 009 species, in 158 assemblages, we detected significantly accelerating extinction and colonisation rates, with both rates being approximately balanced. Most populations (85%) did not show significant trends in abundance, and those that did were balanced between winners (8%) and losers (7%). Thus, population metrics estimated with assemblage data are commensurate with assemblage metrics and reveal sustained and increasing species turnover.     

The changing fates of the world's mammals

A recent complete assessment of the conservation status of 5487 mammal species demonstrated that at least one-fifth are at risk of extinction in the wild. We retrospectively identified genuine changes in extinction risk for mammals between 1996 and 2008 to calculate changes in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI). Species-level trends in the conservation status of mammalian diversity reveal that extinction risk in large-bodied species is increasing, and that the rate of deterioration has been most accelerated in the Indomalayan and Australasian realms. Expanding agriculture and hunting have been the main drivers of increased extinction risk in mammals. Site-based protection and management, legislation, and captive-breeding and reintroduction programmes have led to improvements in 24 species. We contextualize these changes, and explain why both deteriorations and improvements may be under-reported. Although this study highlights where conservation actions are leading to improvements, it fails to account for instances where conservation has prevented further deteriorations in the status of the world's mammals. The continued utility of the RLI is dependent on sustained investment to ensure repeated assessments of mammals over time and to facilitate future calculations of the RLI and measurement against global targets.     

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (?4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: ?7.8 to ?0.6%) than the Namibian one (?0.3%, HPDI: ?3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost ?10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40‐year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.     

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.     

Long-term population trends of Sooty Terns <Emphasis Type="Italic">Onychoprion fuscatus</Emphasis>: implications for conservation status

Seabirds have suffered dramatic declines in population over recent decades. The most abundant seabirds of tropical oceans are Sooty Terns Onychoprion fuscatus and they have an IUCN Red List category of ‘Least Concern’. Ascension Island has the largest colony of Sooty Terns in the Atlantic Ocean and censuses between 1990 and 2013 have shown that its population size is static. In this study we have used historical data and recent censuses to describe the population status of Sooty Terns on Ascension Island over a century. We show that the breeding population contained over 2 million individuals in the 1870s and remained at this level for at least 70 years. However, the population declined from >2 million birds in 1942 to 350,000 birds by 1990. The population trend spanning a period equivalent to three generations of the species (63 years; 1942–2005) showed an approximate 84% decline in population size. Using IUCN criteria this suggests that Sooty Terns on Ascension could be considered ‘Critically Endangered’. We conclude that a re-evaluation of Sooty Tern conservation status is necessary at the local level and possibly globally. Our study highlights that for long-lived species historic demographic data should be considered when determining conservation status.     

Multiple drivers of decline in the global status of freshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea)

Rates of biodiversity loss are higher in freshwater ecosystems than in most terrestrial or marine ecosystems, making freshwater conservation a priority. However, prioritization methods are impeded by insufficient knowledge on the distribution and conservation status of freshwater taxa, particularly invertebrates. We evaluated the extinction risk of the world''s 590 freshwater crayfish species using the IUCN Categories and Criteria and found 32% of all species are threatened with extinction. The level of extinction risk differed between families, with proportionally more threatened species in the Parastacidae and Astacidae than in the Cambaridae. Four described species were Extinct and 21% were assessed as Data Deficient. There was geographical variation in the dominant threats affecting the main centres of crayfish diversity. The majority of threatened US and Mexican species face threats associated with urban development, pollution, damming and water management. Conversely, the majority of Australian threatened species are affected by climate change, harvesting, agriculture and invasive species. Only a small proportion of crayfish are found within the boundaries of protected areas, suggesting that alternative means of long-term protection will be required. Our study highlights many of the significant challenges yet to come for freshwater biodiversity unless conservation planning shifts from a reactive to proactive approach.     

The desolation of Smaug: The human-driven decline of the Sungazer lizard (Smaug giganteus)

The Sungazer (Smaug giganteus) is a threatened lizard species endemic to the Highveld grasslands of South Africa. The species faces risks from habitat loss and fragmentation, and illegal harvesting for traditional medicine and the pet trade. Despite these threats, the current conservation status of the species was poorly validated. We visited 79 Sungazer populations recorded in 1978 to assess population change since the initial surveys, and surveyed an additional 164 sites to better define the distribution and estimate the current population size. We interrogated all known historical trade data of the species. One-third of Sungazer populations have been extirpated over the past 37 years. The distribution includes two allopatric populations, with the smaller Mpumalanga population experiencing a significantly higher decline. The species has an extent of occurrence (EOO) of 34 500 km², and an area of occupancy (AOO) of 1149 km². The interpreted distribution is 17 978 km², and just under 60% remains untransformed grassland. We estimate a population size of 677 000 mature individuals, down 48% from the estimated historical population, prior to commercial agricultural development. A total of 1194 live Sungazers were exported under permit from South Africa between 1985 and 2014, with a significant increase in numbers exported over the last decade. Without any evidence of captive breeding, we believe that these animals are all wild-caught. Based on the AOO, level of decline, fragmentation within the distribution and suspected level of exploitation, we recommend classification of the species as Vulnerable under IUCN Red List Criteria A2acd and B2ab(ii–v). The establishment of a protected area network, genetic research and further investigations into the pet and traditional medicine trades are urgently needed.     

Regional diversity,population trends and threat assessment of the weeds of traditional agriculture in Greece

On the basis of extensive field studies throughout Greece and of about 19 500 field and literature records extracted from the Flora Hellenica Database, we provide the first survey of wild plant species of traditional agriculture in Greece (hereafter TA species). For each of the 138 taxa, life form, rareness (on national scale), local abundance (habitat occupancy) and regional restrictedness are given. We infer population trends from the record chronology of the taxa in the Flora Hellenica Database, and we assess the Red List status of the arable plants using IUCN criteria. According to current knowledge, two TA species are presumed Extinct in Greece and seven Critically Endangered. Almost half of the species are threatened, including 46 Vulnerable and 15 Endangered taxa. There is a high proportion of locally distributed taxa among Greek TA species. Distribution patterns show a pronounced south–north gradient, and the unique character of the East Aegean arable flora is revealed. Most arable species are annuals (83%). Perennial herbs, mostly bulbous or tuberous plants (geophytes), account for 17%, and a major proportion of the latter must be considered as threatened at different levels. The chronology of decline of certain TA species is reflected by processes of agricultural intensification and regional urbanization. We suggest conservation measures for the unique arable flora of Greece. To reflect the geographical and ecoregional variation, in situ measures should focus on areas with species‐rich arable fields in all phytogeographical regions of Greece. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 175 , 607–623.     

The status and conservation of the Cape Gannet Morus capensis

The Cape Gannet Morus capensis is one of several seabird species endemic to the Benguela upwelling ecosystem (BUS) but whose population has recently decreased, leading to an unfavourable IUCN Red List assessment. Application of ‘JARA’ (‘Just Another Red-List Assessment,’ a Bayesian state-space tool used for IUCN Red List assessments) to updated information on the areas occupied by Cape Gannets and the nest densities of breeding birds at their six colonies, suggested that the species should be classified as Vulnerable. However, the rate of decrease of Cape Gannets in their most-recent generation exceeded that of the previous generation, primarily as a result of large decreases at Bird Island, Lambert’s Bay, and Malgas Island, off South Africa’s west coast (the western part of their range). Since the 1960s, there has been an ongoing redistribution of the species from northwest to southeast around southern Africa, and ～70% of the population now occurs on the south coast of South Africa, at Bird Island in Algoa Bay, on the eastern border of the BUS. Recruitment rather than adult survival may be limiting the present population; however, information on the seabird’s demographic parameters and mortality in fisheries is lacking for colonies in the northern part of the BUS. Presently, major threats to Cape Gannet include: substantially decreased availability of their preferred prey in the west; heavy mortalities of eggs, chicks and fledglings at and around colonies, inflicted by Cape Fur Seals Arctocephalus pusillus and other seabirds; substantial disturbance at colonies caused by Cape Fur Seals attacking adult gannets ashore; oiling; and disease.     

Threat to the point: improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action

Comparative extinction risk analysis is a common approach for assessing the relative plight of biodiversity and making conservation recommendations. However, the usefulness of such analyses for conservation practice has been questioned. One reason for underperformance may be that threats arising from global environmental changes (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species, climate change) are often overlooked, despite being widely regarded as proximal drivers of species’ endangerment. We explore this problem by (i) reviewing the use of threats in this field and (ii) quantitatively investigating the effects of threat exclusion on the interpretation and potential application of extinction risk model results. We show that threat variables are routinely (59%) identified as significant predictors of extinction risk, yet while most studies (78%) include extrinsic factors of some kind (e.g., geographic or bioclimatic information), the majority (63%) do not include threats. Despite low overall usage, studies are increasingly employing threats to explain patterns of extinction risk. However, most continue to employ methods developed for the analysis of heritable traits (e.g., body size, fecundity), which may be poorly suited to the treatment of nonheritable predictors including threats. In our global mammal and continental amphibian extinction risk case studies, omitting threats reduced model predictive performance, but more importantly (i) reduced mechanistic information relevant to management; (ii) resulted in considerable disagreement in species classifications (12% and 5% for amphibians and mammals, respectively, translating to dozens and hundreds of species); and (iii) caused even greater disagreement (20–60%) in a downstream conservation application (species ranking). We conclude that the use of threats in comparative extinction risk analysis is important and increasing but currently in the early stages of development. Priorities for future studies include improving uptake, availability, quality and quantification of threat data, and developing analytical methods that yield more robust, relevant and tangible products for conservation applications.     

Assessment of Hebei flora against the IUCN Red List Criteria in China

Some plants of Hebei Province in China are under threat from human activities, such as over-herding and over-exploitation of wild medicinal plants and industrial plants, etc. To identify the plants in danger in the province and to inspect the quality of the environment encompassing Beijing and Tianjin, a red list of the threatened flora of Hebei Province was produced by using the IUCN Red List Criteria (version 3.1) and its guidelines (version 6.2). Some 262 species were assessed and the results were as follows: (1) the threatened flora include 211 species, accounting for 7.95% of the total native vascular plants. Among them, 44 are Critically Endangered, 80 Endangered and 87 Vulnerable; (2) the destruction of the habitat caused by human activities and the actual or potential exploitation of the plants themselves were the main threat factors of Hebei flora; (3) most of the threatened plants are located in the western, northern and northeastern mountainous regions, namely the key regions of Hebei plant diversity; the endemic and regionally endemic species are severely threatened. Consequently, the assessment not only presented the threatened status of Hebei flora but also indicated the relatively fragile health status of the environment of Beijing and Tianjin. Thus, it is suggested that the application of the IUCN Red List Criteria at the regional level, as an index, could reflect the health status of the local ecosystem. In addition, more concrete measures are needed to conserve the plant diversity and the natural ecosystem of Hebei Province and even the whole region encompassing Beijing and Tianjin.     

Assessment of Hebei flora against the IUCN Red List Criteria in China

Some plants of Hebei Province in China are under threat from human activities,such as over-herding and over-exploitation of wild medicinal plants and industrial plants,etc.To identify the plants in danger in the province and to inspect the quality of the environment encompassing Beijing and Tianjin,a red list of the threatened flora of Hebei Province was produced by using the IUCN Red List Criteria (version 3.1) and its guidelines (version 6.2).Some 262 species were assessed and the results were as follows:(1) the threatened flora include 211 species,accounting for 7.95% of the total native vascular plants.Among them,44 are Critically Endangered,80 Endangered and 87 Vulnerable;(2) the destruction of the habitat caused by human activities and the actual or potential exploitation of the plants themselves were the main threat factors of Hebei flora;(3) most of the threatened plants are located in the western,northern and northeastern mountainous regions,namely the key regions of Hebei plant diversity;the endemic and regionally endemic species are severely threatened.Consequently,the assessment not only presented the threatened status of Hebei flora but also indicated the relatively fragile health status of the environment of Beijing and Tianjin.Thus,it is suggested that the application of the IUCN Red List Criteria at the regional level,as an index,could reflect the health status of the local ecosystem,In addition,more concrete measures are needed to conserve the plant diversity and the natural ecosystem of Hebei Province and even the whole region encompassing Beijing and Tianjin.     

Mark–recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark–recapture study conducted during 1975–1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22–70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87–97%, 95% CI) for females ≥ 2 years old. Sixty‐five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57–0.77 for females and 0.43–0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter–spring and greatest in autumn–winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35–0.46 for females and 0.29–0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age‐specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark–recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark–recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.     

High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.     

Assessing the Threatened Status of Bumble Bee Species (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Hungary,Central Europe

Decline in the populations of bumble bees and other pollinators stress the need for more knowledge about their conservation status. Only one of the 25 bumble bee species present in Hungary is included in the Hungarian Red List. We estimated the endangerment of the Hungarian bumble bee (Bombus Latr.) species using the available occurrence data from the last 50 years of the 20th century. Four of the 25 species were data deficient or extinct from Hungary. About 60% of species were considered rare or moderately rare. Changes in distribution and occurrence frequency indicated that 10 of the 21 native species showed a declining trend, while only three species increased in frequency of occurrence. According to the IUCN Red List categories, seven species (33% of the native fauna) should be labelled as critically endangered (CR) and 3 (14%) as endangered (EN). Our results stress an urgent need of protection plans for bumble bees in Hungary, and further underlines the validity of concern over bumble bees all over Europe.     

Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.     

Explaining the global pattern of protected area coverage: relative importance of vertebrate biodiversity, human activities and agricultural suitability

Aim Twelve per cent of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is covered by protected areas, but neither these areas nor the biodiversity they contain are evenly distributed spatially. To guide future establishment of protected areas, it is important to understand the factors that have shaped the spatial arrangement of the current protected area system. We used an information‐theoretic approach to assess the ability of vertebrate biodiversity measures, resource consumption and agricultural potential to explain the global coverage pattern of protected areas. Location Global. Methods For each of 762 World Wildlife Fund terrestrial ecoregions of the world, we measured protected area coverage, resource consumption, terrestrial vertebrate species richness, number of endemic species, number of threatened species, net primary production, elevation and topographic heterogeneity. We combined these variables into 39 a priori models to describe protected area coverage at the global scale, and for six biogeographical realms. Using the Akaike information criterion and Akaike weights, we identified the relative importance and influence of each variable in describing protected area coverage. Results Globally, the number of endemic species was the best variable describing protected area coverage, followed by the number of threatened species. Species richness and resource consumption were of moderate importance and agricultural potential had weak support for describing protected area coverage at a global scale. Yet, the relative importance of these factors varied among biogeographical realms. Measures of vertebrate biodiversity (species richness, endemism and threatened species) were among the most important variables in all realms, except the Indo‐Malayan, but had a wide range of relative importance and influence. Resource consumption was inversely related to protected area coverage across all but one realm (the Palearctic), most strongly in the Nearctic realm. Agricultural potential, despite having little support in describing protected area coverage globally, was strongly and positively related to protection in the Palearctic and Neotropical realms, as well as in the Indo‐Malayan realm. The Afrotropical, Indo‐Malayan and Australasian realms showed no clear, strong relationships between protected area coverage and the independent variables. Main conclusions Globally, the existing protected area network is more strongly related to biodiversity measures than to patterns of resource consumption or agricultural potential. However, the relative importance of these factors varies widely among the world’s biogeographical realms. Understanding the biases of the current protected area system may help to correct for them as future protected areas are added to the global network.     

Cryptic species complexes,widespread species and conservation: lessons from Amazonian frogs of the Leptodactylus marmoratus group (Anura: Leptodactylidae)

Morphologically cryptic species act as a wild card when it comes to biodiversity assessments and conservation, with the capacity to dramatically alter our understanding of the biological landscape at the taxonomic, ecological, biogeographic, evolutionary, and conservation levels. We discuss the potential effects that cryptic species may have on biodiversity assessments and conservation, as well as some of the current issues involving the treatment of cryptic species both at taxonomic and conservation levels. In addition, using a combination of advertisement call and morphological data, we describe a new species of the Leptodactylus marmoratus group from the upper Amazon basin, and we assess how cryptic species can affect conservation assessments of species in the Leptodactylus marmoratus group by examining how recent findings affect our understanding of the distribution of what is assumed to be a widespread Amazonian species, Leptodactylus andreae.