Spatial patterns and vegetation–site relationships of the presettlement forests in western New York, USA

Aim The purposes of this study were to develop a Geographic Information System and spatial analytical methodology to reconstruct and represent the presettlement vegetation in a spatially continuous manner over large areas and to investigate vegetation–site relationships before widespread changes of the vegetation had taken place. Location The study area was the Holland Land Company Purchase in western New York, a 14,400 km² area extending across the physiographic provinces of the Erie–Ontario Lowlands and the Appalachian Uplands. Methods Bearing‐tree records from the Holland Land Company township surveys of western New York in c. 1800 were collected and analysed. The geostatistical method of indicator kriging was used to map spatially continuous representations of individual tree species. Rule‐based and statistically clustered approaches were used to analyse and classify the reconstructed tree species distributions in order to obtain the vegetation association distribution. Contingency table analysis was conducted to quantify species relationships with soil conditions. Results The presettlement vegetation at both the tree species and the vegetation association levels were easier to interpret and visually more effective as a spatially continuous representation than as a discontinuous distribution of symbols. The results for tree species were probability occurrences of species distribution, showing spatial patterns that were not apparent in discrete maps of points or in summary tables of species frequencies. Analysis of the 8792 bearing trees suggested the dominance of American beech (Fagus grandifolia) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) in the forest composition 200 years ago. Both soil drainage and texture were important site determinants of the vegetation in western New York. The rule‐based and statistically clustered approaches had the advantage of summarizing vegetation compositional patterns in a single image, thus avoiding the need to delineate manually and subjectively the location of boundaries between adjacent vegetation associations. Main conclusions The study offers more insights into the spatial pattern of presettlement forests in western New York than do prior studies. The spatially continuous representation could also enable the comparison of vegetation distribution from data sources that have different sampling schemes, for example the comparison of presettlement vegetation from the presettlement land survey records with current vegetation from modern forest inventories. The results are of value, providing a useful benchmark against which to examine vegetation change and the impacts of human land use.     

Molecular patterns of introgression in a classic hybrid zone between the Australian tree frogs,Litoria ewingii and L. paraewingi: evidence of a tension zone

Hybrid zones provide a rare opportunity to explore the processes involved in reproductive isolation and speciation. The southern hybrid zone between the southeastern Australian tree frogs Litoria ewingii and L. paraewingi has been comprehensively studied over the last 40 years, primarily using reproductive compatibility experiments and male advertisement calls. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and eight nuclear microsatellite markers to characterize this hybrid zone along a historically studied transect and to test various dispersal‐dependent and dispersal‐independent hybrid zone models. The species are genetically distinct and the level of hybridization within the contact zone is low, with the majority of admixed individuals representing later‐generation hybrids. Based on previous experimental genetic compatibility studies, we predicted that hybrids with L. paraewingi mtDNA would be more frequent than hybrids with L. ewingii mtDNA. Surprisingly, a greater proportion of the identified hybrids had L. ewingii mtDNA. Geographical cline analyses showed a sharp transition in allele frequencies across the transect, and both the mtDNA and microsatellite data showed concordant cline centres, but were best supported by a model that allowed width to vary. Overall, the L. ewingii–L. paraewingi hybrid zone is best characterized as a tension zone, due to the narrow cline width, concordant genetic clines and low levels of hybridization.     

The decline and rise of the Kransberg Cape Vulture colony over 35 years has implications for composite population indices and survey frequency

Long-term monitoring is key for detecting population declines. Composite indices allow researchers to combine trends from disparate monitoring programmes into a single estimate of population change. Inferences from composite indices, however, are limited to the time periods and areas studied. We show that the number of breeding pairs in a colony of Cape Vultures Gyps coprotheres in South Africa declined between the years 1983 and 2003 but increased in both the number of breeding pairs and fledglings per pair from 2004 to 2017. We performed a retrospective power analysis determining the minimum annual frequency with which the colony could have been monitored without sacrificing inference into population trends. This power analysis revealed the post-2003 population increase would not have been apparent if we skipped more than 2 years between surveys. We incorporated our estimates into a previously published composite index for Cape Vultures that considered only data collected pre-2000 and demonstrate that the inference is unchanged if the trend from the decline period or the entire study is incorporated, yet if only the trend during the period of population increase is used, there is no longer a statistically significant decline across the species’ range. Our results demonstrate the utility of long-term monitoring because if our study had concluded before 2003, there would be little evidence of the current population increase at Kransberg.     

Cycles of coral reef ‘turn‐on’, rapid growth and ‘turn‐off’ over the past 8500 years: a context for understanding modern ecological states and trajectories

Human activities threaten reef ecosystems globally, forcing ecological change at rates and scales regarded as unprecedented in the Holocene. These changes are so profound that a cessation of reef accretion (reef ‘turn‐off’) and net erosion of reef structures is argued by many as the ultimate and imminent trajectory. Here, we use a regional scale reef growth dataset, based on 76 core records (constrained by 211 radiometric dates) from 22 reefs along and across the inner‐shelf of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, to examine the timing of different phases of reef initiation (‘turn‐on’), growth and ‘turn‐off’ during the Holocene. This dataset delineates two temporally discrete episodes of reef‐building over the last 8500 years: the first associated with the Holocene transgression‐early highstand period [～8.5–5.5 k calibrated years bp (cal ybp )]; the second since ～2.3 k cal ybp . During both periods, reefs accreted rapidly to sea level before entering late evolutionary states – states naturally characterized by reduced coral cover and low accretion potential – and a clear hiatus occurs between these reef‐building episodes for which no records of reef initiation exist. These transitions mimic those projected under current environmental disturbance regimes, but have been driven entirely by natural forcing factors. Our results demonstrate that, even through the late Holocene, reef health and growth has fluctuated through cycles independent of anthropogenic forcing. Consequently, degraded reef states cannot de facto be considered to automatically reflect increased anthropogenic stress. Indeed, in many cases degraded or nonaccreting reef communities may reflect past reef growth histories (as dictated by reef growth–sea level interactions) as much as contemporary environmental change. Recognizing when changes in reef condition reflect these natural ‘turn‐on’– growth –‘turn‐off’ cycles and how they interact with on‐going human disturbance is critical for effective coral reef management and for understanding future reef ecological trajectories.