Synergistic effects of ocean acidification and warming on overwintering pteropods in the Arctic

Ocean acidification and warming will be most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean. Aragonite shell‐bearing pteropods in the Arctic are expected to be among the first species to suffer from ocean acidification. Carbonate undersaturation in the Arctic will first occur in winter and because this period is also characterized by low food availability, the overwintering stages of polar pteropods may develop into a bottleneck in their life cycle. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming on growth, shell degradation (dissolution), and mortality of two thecosome pteropods, the polar Limacina helicina and the boreal L. retroversa, were studied for the first time during the Arctic winter in the Kongsfjord (Svalbard). The abundance of L. helicina and L. retroversa varied from 23.5 to 120 ind m^?2 and 12 to 38 ind m^?2, and the mean shell size ranged from 920 to 981 μm and 810 to 823 μm, respectively. Seawater was aragonite‐undersaturated at the overwintering depths of pteropods on two out of ten days of our observations. A 7‐day experiment [temperature levels: 2 and 7 °C, pCO₂ levels: 350, 650 (only for L. helicina) and 880 μatm] revealed a significant pCO₂ effect on shell degradation in both species, and synergistic effects between temperature and pCO₂ for L. helicina. A comparison of live and dead specimens kept under the same experimental conditions indicated that both species were capable of actively reducing the impacts of acidification on shell dissolution. A higher vulnerability to increasing pCO₂ and temperature during the winter season is indicated compared with a similar study from fall 2009. Considering the species winter phenology and the seasonal changes in carbonate chemistry in Arctic waters, negative climate change effects on Arctic thecosomes are likely to show up first during winter, possibly well before ocean acidification effects become detectable during the summer season.     

Contrasting physiological responses to future ocean acidification among Arctic copepod populations

Widespread ocean acidification (OA) is modifying the chemistry of the global ocean, and the Arctic is recognized as the region where the changes will progress at the fastest rate. Moreover, Arctic species show lower capacity for cellular homeostasis and acid‐base regulation rendering them particularly vulnerable to OA. In the present study, we found physiological differences in OA response across geographically separated populations of the keystone Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis. In copepodites stage CIV, measured reaction norms of ingestion rate and metabolic rate showed severe reductions in ingestion and increased metabolic expenses in two populations from Svalbard (Kongsfjord and Billefjord) whereas no effects were observed in a population from the Disko Bay, West Greenland. At pH_T 7.87, which has been predicted for the Svalbard west coast by year 2100, these changes resulted in reductions in scope for growth of 19% in the Kongsfjord and a staggering 50% in the Billefjord. Interestingly, these effects were not observed in stage CV copepodites from any of the three locations. It seems that CVs may be more tolerant to OA perhaps due to a general physiological reorganization to meet low intracellular pH during hibernation. Needless to say, the observed changes in the CIV stage will have serious implications for the C. glacialis population health status and growth around Svalbard. However, OA tolerant populations such as the one in the Disko Bay could help to alleviate severe effects in C. glacialis as a species.     

Effect of aragonite saturation state on settlement and post-settlement growth of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Porites astreoides</Emphasis> larvae

In response to the increases in pCO₂ projected in the 21st century, adult coral growth and calcification are expected to decrease significantly. However, no published studies have investigated the effect of elevated pCO₂ on earlier life history stages of corals. Porites astreoides larvae were collected from reefs in Key Largo, Florida, USA, settled and reared in controlled saturation state seawater. Three saturation states were obtained, using 1 M HCl additions, corresponding to present (380 ppm) and projected pCO₂ scenarios for the years 2065 (560 ppm) and 2100 (720 ppm). The effect of saturation state on settlement and post-settlement growth was evaluated. Saturation state had no significant effect on percent settlement; however, skeletal extension rate was positively correlated with saturation state, with ~50% and 78% reductions in growth at the mid and high pCO₂ treatments compared to controls, respectively.     

Have we been underestimating the effects of ocean acidification in zooplankton?

Understanding how copepods may respond to ocean acidification (OA) is critical for risk assessments of ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. The perception that copepods are insensitive to OA is largely based on experiments with adult females. Their apparent resilience to increased carbon dioxide (pCO₂) concentrations has supported the view that copepods are ‘winners’ under OA. Here, we show that this conclusion is not robust, that sensitivity across different life stages is significantly misrepresented by studies solely using adult females. Stage‐specific responses to pCO₂ (385–6000 μatm) were studied across different life stages of a calanoid copepod, monitoring for lethal and sublethal responses. Mortality rates varied significantly across the different life stages, with nauplii showing the highest lethal effects; nauplii mortality rates increased threefold when pCO₂ concentrations reached 1000 μatm (year 2100 scenario) with LC₅₀ at 1084 μatm pCO₂. In comparison, eggs, early copepodite stages, and adult males and females were not affected lethally until pCO₂ concentrations ≥3000 μatm. Adverse effects on reproduction were found, with >35% decline in nauplii recruitment at 1000 μatm pCO₂. This suppression of reproductive scope, coupled with the decreased survival of early stage progeny at this pCO₂ concentration, has clear potential to damage population growth dynamics in this species. The disparity in responses seen across the different developmental stages emphasizes the need for a holistic life‐cycle approach to make species‐level projections to climate change. Significant misrepresentation and error propagation can develop from studies which attempt to project outcomes to future OA conditions solely based on single life history stage exposures.     

Long-term changes in metapopulation genetic structure: a quarter-century retrospective study on low-Arctic rock pool Daphnia

Population genetic surveys approximately 25 years apart examined the distribution and abundance of asexual clones of the freshwater zooplankter Daphnia pulex complex in rock pools near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. In 1984–1985, melanic members of this species complex were present in 131 rock pools at this site, but were only detected in 90 of these pools in 2007–2008. Allozymic surveys conducted during these two time periods revealed that 59 per cent of these populations showed unchanged clonal composition. Total clonal replacement occurred in 8 per cent of the populations, while the others (33%) included a mixture of ‘resident’ clones and new ‘colonists’. We discuss these changes in light of shifts in biotic and abiotic factors. We also discuss the use of rock pool habitats as ‘sentinel’ systems for examining long-term environmental changes in the ecological genetics of aquatic organisms in the Arctic.     

Ocean acidification induces biochemical and morphological changes in the calcification process of large benthic foraminifera

Large benthic foraminifera are significant contributors to sediment formation on coral reefs, yet they are vulnerable to ocean acidification. Here, we assessed the biochemical and morphological impacts of acidification on the calcification of Amphistegina lessonii and Marginopora vertebralis exposed to different pH conditions. We measured growth rates (surface area and buoyant weight) and Ca-ATPase and Mg-ATPase activities and calculated shell density using micro-computer tomography images. In A. lessonii, we detected a significant decrease in buoyant weight, a reduction in the density of inner skeletal chambers, and an increase of Ca-ATPase and Mg-ATPase activities at pH 7.6 when compared with ambient conditions of pH 8.1. By contrast, M. vertebralis showed an inhibition in Mg-ATPase activity under lowered pH, with growth rate and skeletal density remaining constant. While M. vertebralis is considered to be more sensitive than A. lessonii owing to its high-Mg-calcite skeleton, it appears to be less affected by changes in pH, based on the parameters assessed in this study. We suggest difference in biochemical pathways of calcification as the main factor influencing response to changes in pH levels, and that A. lessonii and M. vertebralis have the ability to regulate biochemical functions to cope with short-term increases in acidity.     

东海浮游翼足类(Pteropods)种类组成和多样性研究

根据 1997-2000年东海 23°30′-33°00′N、118°30′-128°00′E海域四季调查资料,运用定量、定性方法探讨了东海浮游翼足类种类组成、种类数、物种多样性指数(H′)及其与环境因子的关系。结果表明:四季中共出现翼足类 21种,其中尖笔帽螺 (Creseisacicula)、马蹄螔螺 (Limacinatrochiformis)、强卷螺 (Agadinasyimpsoni)、蝴蝶螺(Desmopteruspapilio)、锥笔帽螺(C. virgulavar. comica)、棒笔帽螺(C. clava)、玻杯螺(Hyalocylizstriata)、长吻龟螺(Cavolinialongirostris)、芽笔帽螺 (Creseisvirgula)和拟海若螺 (Paraclionelongicaudata)等 10种为常见种,胖螔螺(Limacinainflata)和皮鳃螺(Pneumodermaatlanticum)等两种为次常见种,其余 9种是稀有种。在春季转至夏季、冬季转至春季时,种类组成出现明显的季节更替现象;冬春季种类分布仅受温度变化的影响,而夏秋季则受温度和10m层或底层盐度变化的共同影响。在冬春季,东海近海由于暖流势力较弱,水温较低,翼足类种数较少,种类数和多样性指数南部大于北部,外海大于近海;从夏季到秋季随着台湾暖流势力的加强,海流将较多的种类带到东海北部和近海,尽管近海种数和多样性指数值仍呈南高北低的特征,但南部和北部,近海和外海的差距明显缩小。     

Gene expression changes in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi after 500 generations of selection to ocean acidification

Coccolithophores are unicellular marine algae that produce biogenic calcite scales and substantially contribute to marine primary production and carbon export to the deep ocean. Ongoing ocean acidification particularly impairs calcifying organisms, mostly resulting in decreased growth and calcification. Recent studies revealed that the immediate physiological response in the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi to ocean acidification may be partially compensated by evolutionary adaptation, yet the underlying molecular mechanisms are currently unknown. Here, we report on the expression levels of 10 candidate genes putatively relevant to pH regulation, carbon transport, calcification and photosynthesis in E. huxleyi populations short-term exposed to ocean acidification conditions after acclimation (physiological response) and after 500 generations of high CO₂ adaptation (adaptive response). The physiological response revealed downregulation of candidate genes, well reflecting the concomitant decrease of growth and calcification. In the adaptive response, putative pH regulation and carbon transport genes were up-regulated, matching partial restoration of growth and calcification in high CO₂-adapted populations. Adaptation to ocean acidification in E. huxleyi likely involved improved cellular pH regulation, presumably indirectly affecting calcification. Adaptive evolution may thus have the potential to partially restore cellular pH regulatory capacity and thereby mitigate adverse effects of ocean acidification.     

Species-dependent effects of seawater acidification on alkaline phosphatase activity in dinoflagellates

Increases of atmospheric CO₂ cause ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, the latter of which can stratify the water column and impede nutrient supply from deep water. Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient for phytoplankton to grow. While dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) is the preferred form of P, phytoplankton have evolved alkaline phosphatase (AP) to utilize dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) when DIP is deficient. Although the function of AP is known to require pH > 7, how OA affects AP activity and hence the capacity of phytoplankton to utilize DOP is poorly understood. Here, we examined the effects of pH conditions (5.5–11) on AP activity from six species of dinoflagellates, an important group of marine phytoplankton. We observed a general pattern that AP activity declined sharply at pH 5.5, peaked between pH 7 and 8, and dropped at pH > 8. However, our data revealed remarkable interspecific variations in optimal pH and niche breadth of pH. Among the species examined, Fugacium kawagutii and Prorocentrum cordatum had an optimal pH at 8, and Alexandrium pacificum, Amphidinium carterae, Effrenium voratum, and Karenia mikimotoi showed an optimal pH of 7. However, whereas A. pacificum and K. mikimotoi had the broadest pH niche for AP (7–10) and F. kawagutii the second (8–10), Am. carterae, E. voratum, and P. cordatum exhibited a narrow pH range. The response of Am. carterae AP to pH changes was verified using purified AP heterologously expressed in Escherichia coli. These results in concert suggest OA will likely differentially impact the capacity of different phytoplankton species to utilize DOP in the projected more acidified and nutrient-limited future ocean.     

Constraints on the biological recovery of the Bohemian Forest lakes from acid stress

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鱼类对海洋升温与酸化的响应

自工业革命以来,空气中人为排放CO₂量增加,引起温室效应,导致地球表面温度升高和海水升温;同时,由于海-气界面气体交换,大气中CO₂部分溶解于海洋,引起海洋酸化。海洋升温加快鱼体内生化反应和代谢速率,并通过影响生长、觅食和繁殖等生命过程中能量供给,间接影响到鱼类种群分布、群落结构及生态系统的功能。而海水酸化会干扰海洋鱼类仔稚鱼的感觉和行为,增加其被捕食率,并削弱其野外生存能力,可能威胁自然种群补给量。综述了海洋升温、海洋酸化及其两者共同作用对海洋鱼类的影响,为预测鱼类响应全球海洋环境变化的响应趋势提供相关依据。     

海洋酸化效应对海水鱼类的综合影响评述

人类活动引起的大气CO2浓度的升高,除了使全球温度升高外,导致的另一个严重生态问题——海洋酸化(Ocean acidification,OA),受到社会各界包括科研界的高度重视,该领域的大部分研究结果都是在近十年才发表出来的,目前还有很多需要解决的问题。海洋酸化的研究涉及到很多学科的交叉包括化学、古生物学、生态学、生物地球化学等等。在生物学领域,海洋酸化主要围绕敏感物种,例如由碳酸钙形成贝壳或外骨骼的贝类,珊瑚礁群体等。鱼类作为海洋脊椎动物的代表生物类群,自身具有一定的酸碱平衡调节能力,但相关海洋酸化方向的研究并不是很多。尽管人们对于海洋酸化对鱼类的影响了解甚少,这并不说明海洋酸化对鱼类没有作用或者效应小,在相关研究逐步展开的同时,发现鱼类同样受到海洋酸化的危害,几乎涉及到鱼类整个生活史和几乎大部分生理过程,尤其是早期生活史的高度敏感。因此就目前国内外对此领域研究结果做综述,以期待业界同行能够对海水鱼类这个大的类群引起重视。     

Effects of diurnally oscillating pCO2 on the calcification and survival of coral recruits

Manipulative studies have demonstrated that ocean acidification (OA) is a threat to coral reefs, yet no experiments have employed diurnal variations in pCO(2) that are ecologically relevant to many shallow reefs. Two experiments were conducted to test the response of coral recruits (less than 6 days old) to diurnally oscillating pCO(2); one exposing recruits for 3 days to ambient (440 μatm), high (663 μatm) and diurnally oscillating pCO(2) on a natural phase (420-596 μatm), and another exposing recruits for 6 days to ambient (456 μatm), high (837 μatm) and diurnally oscillating pCO(2) on either a natural or a reverse phase (448-845 μatm). In experiment I, recruits exposed to natural-phased diurnally oscillating pCO(2) grew 6-19% larger than those in ambient or high pCO(2). In experiment II, recruits in both high and natural-phased diurnally oscillating pCO(2) grew 16 per cent larger than those at ambient pCO(2), and this was accompanied by 13-18% higher survivorship; the stimulatory effect on growth of oscillatory pCO(2) was diminished by administering high pCO(2) during the day (i.e. reverse-phased). These results demonstrate that coral recruits can benefit from ecologically relevant fluctuations in pCO(2) and we hypothesize that the mechanism underlying this response is highly pCO(2)-mediated, night-time storage of dissolved inorganic carbon that fuels daytime calcification.     

Detrimental effects of ocean acidification on the economically important Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum)

The mean predicted decrease of 0.3–0.4 pH units in the global surface ocean by the end of the century has prompted urgent research to assess the potential effects of ocean acidification on the marine environment, with strong emphasis on calcifying organisms. Among them, the Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum) is expected to be particularly susceptible to acidification effects, due to the elevated solubility of its Mg‐calcite skeleton. This, together with the large overexploitation of this species, depicts a bleak future for this organism over the next decades. In this study, we evaluated the effects of low pH on the species from aquaria experiments. Several colonies of C. rubrum were long‐term maintained for 314 days in aquaria at two different pH levels (8.10 and 7.81, pH_T). Calcification rate, spicule morphology, major biochemical constituents (protein, carbohydrates and lipids) and fatty acids composition were measured periodically. Exposure to lower pH conditions caused a significant decrease in the skeletal growth rate in comparison with the control treatment. Similarly, the spicule morphology clearly differed between both treatments at the end of the experiment, with aberrant shapes being observed only under the acidified conditions. On the other hand, while total organic matter was significantly higher under low pH conditions, no significant differences were detected between treatments regarding total carbohydrate, lipid, protein and fatty acid composition. However, the lower variability found among samples maintained in acidified conditions relative to controls, suggests a possible effect of pH decrease on the metabolism of the colonies. Our results show, for the first time, evidence of detrimental ocean acidification effects on this valuable and endangered coral species.     

Effects of acidic pH and phytoplankton on survival and condition of Bosmina longirostris and Daphnia pulex

The effects of pH, algal composition and algal biomass on abundance, size, reproduction and condition of Daphnia pulex and Bosmina longirostris were tested in a field experiment using water and natural phytoplankton assemblages from a circumneutral (pH 6.43) and a moderately acidic (pH 5.75) lake in south-central Ontario. Both species were affected by pH and phytoplankton composition, with decreased egg production, lipid reserves, body size or abundance in treatments containing algae and/or water from the more acidic lake compared to treatments containing water and phytoplankton from the circumneutral lake. This result was unexpected for Bosmina, which often increases in relative and/or absolute abundance in acidified lakes. The negative effect of acidic conditions on Bosmina suggests that the population increase observed in most acidified lakes is not due to a positive response to low pH or ambient phytoplankton, but to altered biotic interactions possibly involving reduced competition.     

Interactive effects of ocean acidification and temperature on two scleractinian corals from Moorea,French Polynesia

This study tested the hypothesis that the response of corals to temperature and pCO ₂ is consistent between taxa. Juvenile massive Porites spp. and branches of P. rus from the back reef of Moorea were incubated for 1 month under combinations of temperature (29.3 °C and 25.6 °C) and pCO ₂ (41.6 Pa and 81.5 Pa) at an irradiance of 599 μmol quanta m^?2 s^?1. Using microcosms and CO₂ gas mixing technology, treatments were created in a partly nested design (tanks) with two between‐plot factors (temperature and pCO ₂), and one within‐plot factor (taxon); calcification was used as a dependent variable. pCO ₂ and temperature independently affected calcification, but the response differed between taxa. Massive Porites spp. was largely unaffected by the treatments, but P. rus grew 50% faster at 29.3 °C compared with 25.6 °C, and 28% slower at 81.5 Pa vs. 41.6 Pa CO₂. A compilation of studies placed the present results in a broader context and tested the hypothesis that calcification for individual coral genera is independent of pH, [HCO₃ ^?], and [CO₃ ^2?]. Unlike recent reviews, this analysis was restricted to studies reporting calcification in units that could be converted to nmol CaCO₃ cm^?2 h^?1. The compilation revealed a high degree of variation in calcification as a function of pH, [HCO₃ ^?], and [CO₃ ^2?], and supported three conclusions: (1) studies of the effects of ocean acidification on corals need to pay closer attention to reducing variance in experimental outcomes to achieve stronger synthetic capacity, (2) coral genera respond in dissimilar ways to pH, [HCO₃ ^?], and [CO₃ ^2?], and (3) calcification of massive Porites spp. is relatively resistant to short exposures of increased pCO ₂, similar to that expected within 100 y.     

The stunting effect of a high CO2 ocean on calcification and development in sea urchin larvae,a synthesis from the tropics to the poles

The stunting effect of ocean acidification on development of calcifying invertebrate larvae has emerged as a significant effect of global change. We assessed the arm growth response of sea urchin echinoplutei, here used as a proxy of larval calcification, to increased seawater acidity/pCO₂ and decreased carbonate mineral saturation in a global synthesis of data from 15 species. Phylogenetic relatedness did not influence the observed patterns. Regardless of habitat or latitude, ocean acidification impedes larval growth with a negative relationship between arm length and increased acidity/pCO₂ and decreased carbonate mineral saturation. In multiple linear regression models incorporating these highly correlated parameters, pCO₂ exerted the greatest influence on decreased arm growth in the global dataset and also in the data subsets for polar and subtidal species. Thus, reduced growth appears largely driven by organism hypercapnia. For tropical species, decreased carbonate mineral saturation was most important. No single parameter played a dominant role in arm size reduction in the temperate species. For intertidal species, the models were equivocal. Levels of acidification causing a significant (approx. 10–20+%) reduction in arm growth varied between species. In 13 species, reduction in length of arms and supporting skeletal rods was evident in larvae reared in near-future (pCO₂ 800+ µatm) conditions, whereas greater acidification (pCO₂ 1000+ µatm) reduced growth in all species. Although multi-stressor studies are few, when temperature is added to the stressor mix, near-future warming can reduce the negative effect of acidification on larval growth. Broadly speaking, responses of larvae from across world regions showed similar trends despite disparate phylogeny, environments and ecology. Larval success may be the bottleneck for species success with flow-on effects for sea urchin populations and marine ecosystems.     

海水酸化及升温对刺参稚参生长和变色的影响

海洋酸化和海洋变暖是当下及未来海洋生物及其依存生态系统面临的主要环境压力和生态问题。当前,海洋生物早期发育气候变化生物学的研究主要集中于海洋酸化的影响,为了更好地探究海洋气候变化对海洋生物的影响,有必要研究海洋酸化和变暖联合作用下海洋生物的生态响应。以受精后24天的刺参稚参为研究对象,通过模拟当前和本世纪末海洋环境,观察海水酸化和升温对刺参稚参在体色发育关键时期生长、发育及体色变化的影响。实验设置对照组(大连近海水温,pCO₂ 400 mg·kg^-1)、升温组(对照组水温+2℃,pCO₂ 400 mg·kg^-1)、酸化组(对照组水温,pCO₂ 1000 mg·kg^-1)、酸化升温组(对照组水温+2℃,pCO₂ 1000 mg·kg^-1)。结果表明:温度升高2℃能够显著提高稚参发育速率,体色变化加快; pH值降低0.23个单位显著延迟稚参生长,体色变化减缓,个体间体重差异变大;升温2℃能抵消pH降低0.23个单位对...     

The effect of elevated CO2 on the production and respiration of a Sargassum thunbergii community: A mesocosm study

Approximately one‐third of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is absorbed into the ocean and causes it to become more acidic. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested that the surface ocean pH, by the year 2100, would drop by a further 0.3 and 0.4 pH units under RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 6.0 and 8.5 climate scenarios. The macroalgae communities that consisted of Sargassum thunbergii and naturally attached epibionts were exposed to fluctuations of ambient and manipulated pH (0.3–0.4 units below ambient pH). The production and respiration in S. thunbergii communities were calculated from dissolved oxygen time‐series recorded with optical dissolved oxygen sensors. The pH, irradiance, and dissolved oxygen occurred in parallel with diurnal (day/night) patterns. According to net mesocosm production – photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) model, the saturation and compensation PAR, the mean maximum gross mesocosm production (GMP), and daily mesocosm respiration were higher in the CO₂ enrichment, than in the ambient condition, while the mean of photosynthetic coefficient was similar. In conclusion, elevated CO₂ stimulated oxygen production and consumption of S. thunbergii communities in the mesocosm. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the GMP of the S. thunbergii community to irradiance was reduced, and achieved maximum production rate at higher PAR. These positive responses to CO₂ enrichment suggest that S. thunbergii communities may thrive in under high CO₂ conditions.     

Noncalcifying larvae in a changing ocean: warming,not acidification/hypercapnia,is the dominant stressor on development of the sea star Meridiastra calcar

Climate change driven ocean warming and acidification is potentially detrimental to the sensitive planktonic life stages of benthic marine invertebrates. Research has focused on the effects of acidification on calcifying larvae with a paucity of data on species with alternate developmental strategies and on the interactive effects of warming and acidification. To determine the impact of climate change on a conspicuous component of the intertidal fauna of southeast Australia, the development of the noncalcifying lecithotrophic larvae of the sea star Meridiastra calcar was investigated in the setting of predicted ocean warming (+2 to 4 ^°C) and acidification (?0.4 to 0.6 pH units) for 2100 and beyond in all combinations of stressors. Temperature and pH were monitored in the habitat of M. calcar to place experiments in context with current environmental conditions. There was no effect of temperature or pH on cleavage stage embryos but later development (gastrula‐larvae) was negatively effected by a +2 to 4 ^°C warming and there was a negative effect of ?0.6 pH units on embryos reaching the hatched gastrula stage. Mortality and abnormal development in larvae increased significantly even with +2 ^°C warming and larval growth was impaired at +4 ^°C. For the range of temperature and pH conditions tested, there were no interactive effects of stressors across all stages monitored. For M. calcar, warming not acidification was the dominant stressor. A regression model incorporating data from this study and projected increasing SST for the region suggests an increase in larval mortality to 70% for M. calcar by 2100 in the absence of acclimation and adaptation. The broad distribution of this species in eastern Australia encompassing subtropical to cold temperate thermal regimes provides the possibility that local M. calcar populations may be sustained in a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current.