Estimating mortality in skeletal populations: influence of the growth rate on the interpretation of levels and trends during the transition to agriculture

Traditional paleodemographic methods of estimating mortality have been based on unrealistic assumptions about the prevalence of closed and stationary populations. When a living closed population was growing, the mean age at death of its skeletal survivors will be shifted below its true life expectancy. For declining populations, the mean age at death will be higher than true underlying life expectancy at birth. The faster the rate of growth, the larger and more curvilinear is the displacement. Mortality estimates can only be extracted from skeletal populations via an independent estimate of the growth rate. Fertility levels, however, can be estimated directly. The empirical importance of growth rate-dependent mortality estimates is demonstrated by reinterpreting mean-age-at-death data from several populations before and after the agricultural revolution; with detailed consideration given to the Old World populations of Acsadi and Nemeskeri and a New World population from central Illinois.     

Paleodemography of a medieval population in Japan: analysis of human skeletal remains from the Yuigahama-minami site

The purpose of this study is to obtain demographic data regarding the medieval population buried at the Yuigahama-minami site in Kamakura, Japan, and to detect a secular trend in the life expectancy of Japanese population over the last several thousand years. The Yuigahama-minami skeletal sample consists of 260 individuals, including 98 subadults (under 20 years old) and 162 adults. A Yuigahama-minami abridged life-table analysis yielded a life expectancy at birth (e0) of 24.0 years for both sexes, a life expectancy at age 15 years (e15) of 15.8 years for males, and an e15 of 18.0 years for females. The reliability of the estimated e0 was confirmed by analysis of the juvenility index. Demographic profiles comparing the Yuigahama-minami series with other skeletal series indicated that both the survivorship curve and life expectancy of the Yuigahama-minami sample are similar to those of the Mesolithic-Neolithic Jomon population, but are far lower than those of the early modern Edo population. These comparisons strongly suggest that life expectancy changed little over the thousands of years between the Mesolithic-Neolithic Jomon and medieval periods, but then improved remarkably during the few hundred years between the medieval period and early modern Edo period. The short-lived tendency of the Yuigahama-minami sample does not contradict the archaeological hypothesis of unsanitary living conditions in medieval Kamakura. This is the first investigation to address the demographic features of a medieval population in Japan, and will help refine our understanding of long-term trends in the demographic profiles of inhabitants of Japan.     

Cementum annulations,age estimation,and demographic dynamics in Mid-Holocene foragers of North India

One of the principal problems facing palaeodemography is age estimation in adult skeletons and the centrist tendency that affects many age estimation methods by artificially increasing the proportion of individuals in the 30–45-year age category. Several recent publications have indicated that cementum annulations are significantly correlated with known age of extraction or death. This study addresses the question of how demographic dynamics are altered for an archaeological sample when cementum-based age estimates are used as opposed to those obtained via conventional macroscopic methods. Age pyramids were constructed and demographic profiles were compared for the early Holocene skeletal population from Damdama (India). The results demonstrate that the use of cementum annulations for age estimation in only a subset of the skeletal sample has a significant impact on the demographic profile with regard to specific parameters such as mean age at death and life expectancy at birth. This confirms the importance of using cementum annulations to refine age estimates in archaeological samples, which, when combined with a fertility-centred approach to demography, can provide new insights into population dynamics in the past.     

Constitution and By-Laws of the American Association of Physical Anthropologists

From parent populations (N = 50,000) statistically generated, representing different levels of correlation (r) between the age at death and a hypothetical biological indicator (r = 0.8-0.98), reference samples and target demographic samples are randomly drawn. Two iterative techniques, proportional fitting procedure and Bayesian, are used to estimate from the reference samples the age distribution of the targets. Due to the random fluctuations of the pattern of aging, both in the reference and target samples, these techniques converge only in expectation toward the true value of a distribution, but not in practice for any particular realization. Nevertheless, these techniques allow the estimation of the average of an age distribution, even if its shape is unknown. Under the hypothesis that the target sample is drawn from a stationary population, this average represents the life expectancy at 20 years (plus 20 years). Using this mean age at death for the adults and the juvenility index at death (D5-14/D20-ω), a new set of paleodemographic estimators were derived from 40 archaic life tables. For a hypothesized stable population, they give the life expectancy at birth and at 20 years, and the probability of death at 1 and 5 years. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

The early bronze age graveyards of Franzhausen I, lower Austria. 2. Demographic analysis]

In a recent study of 714 graves of the Early Bronze Age cemetery, Franzhausen I, 658 individuals were demographically analysed. The masculinity rate and the mortality rate in the age groups were of similar order compared with estimates derived from other series of this period. On the base of a stationary population model, life tables were calculated showing life expectancy at birth to be 25.8 years and at the age of 20, 17.7 years. Also computed were: the crude death rate (Z = 38.8); and the population size (P = 31 or 65). The lack of infants were estimated by regressions (5q0 = 58%) and the results are discussed.     

海岱地区大汶口文化时期人口死亡年龄的统计分布特征

人口死亡年龄是揭示一个族群健康状况和社会经济条件的重要指标。本文根据海岱地区大汶口文化时期九个墓地人骨遗存的发掘报告,运用定量统计的方法检验了人口死亡年龄分布特征。发现该区大汶口文化时期人口的死亡年龄分布近似服从正态分布。最后探讨了造成人口低死亡年龄的可能原因,并给出了这一概率分布的数学意义以及在史前人口学中的应用前景。     

Paleodemography of the Carlston Annis (Bt-5) Late Archaic skeletal population

The study presents a demographic assessment of the Carlston Annis (Bt-5) Late Archaic hunting and gathering population recovered from the banks of the Green River in west-central Kentucky. The shell midden habitation and cemetery site originally yielded the remains of 390 individuals. Radiocarbon dates place site occupation between 3,000 and 4,500 y.b.p. The skeletal sample consisted of 354 individuals ranging in age from 7 months in utero to 70 + years. Subadults were aged by seriation of dental and skeletal developmental criteria. Adult ages were determined by the multifactorial summary age method that employed 1) five indicators of adult skeletal age at death, 2) the procedure of age indicator seriation, and 3) differential weighting of age assessments as determined by principal components analysis. Adult sex diagnoses were based on qualitative assessment of pelvic and cranial morphological criteria. The Bt-5 life table analysis yields an E0 of 22.4 years, crude birth of 45, mean family size of 3.3, gross reproductive rate of 2.7, generation length of 26.6 years, and B of .076, indicating a healthy population with a substantial capability to replace succeeding generations. Survivorship profiles and demographic parameters that compare the Carlston Annis (Bt-5) and Indian Knoll (Oh-2) skeletal series are presented. Both populations display type II survivorship curves, with high infant mortality and early onset of elevated mortality rates in adults. Major differences between Bt-5 and Oh-2 demographic parameters concern adult sex ratio and adult age distribution over 30 years. These differences are interpreted to reflect census errors in the Oh-2 demographic reconstruction that were possibly introduced by selective methodological biases and/or taphonomic factors.     

Socioeconomic factors affecting the longevity of the Japanese population: a study for 1980 and 1985.

The effects of urbanisation, low income and rejuvenation of the population on life expectancy at birth and at 20, 40 and 65 years of age for males and females in Japan were examined twice, in 1980 and 1985. For males, urbanisation was the major factor determining life expectancy at birth and at age 20 years, and low income was the key determinant of decreased life expectancy except at 65 years of age. For females high income was the factor significantly decreasing life expectancy at 65 years of age in 1980, and rejuvenation of the population inversely influenced life expectancy except at birth in 1985. Life expectancy for all age groups in 1985 was significantly longer than in 1980 for both males and females.     

Testing the value of skeletal samples in demographic research: a comparison with vital registration samples

Critics of paleodemography have suggested that the science is so fraught with error that its demise must be close at hand. Among the problems suggested as unsolvable are representativeness of skeletal samples and inaccuray of skeletal aging techniques. A historical skeletal sample with supportive vital registration might afford the opportunity to test the validity of such criticism or at least to examine the extent of the above problems. In 1984, a skeletal sample of 296 individuals was excavated from a 19th century American poorhouse cemetery. Age at death was determined by macroscopic multivariate examination. Mortality records of 247 individuals who died during four years of the poorhouse's operation provide data for demographic comparisons with the skeletal sample. A comparison of life tables generated from each sample demostrates that there are no significant differences in the age at death structure, life expectancy (at birth: 30.7 in the mortality records and 32.6 from the skeletal sample), or survivorship between the two samples. Skeletal aging techniques can, therefore, provide a demographic picture that is similar in accuracy to that presented by vital registration records.     

A reassessment of demographic estimates for Pecos Pueblo

The original demographic estimates for Pecos Pueblo, New Mexico (Hooton, 1930) indicated a 60/40 male/female adult sex ratio and an average life expectancy at birth of 42.9 years. A reanalysis of sexes and ages for a subsample of the Pecos collection as well as a reevaluation of a more recent report suggests that the adult sex ratio for Pecos is probably closer to 50/50 and that the mean age at death should be greatly reduced, perhaps by as much as 15 to 20 years.     

Changes in Jewish mortality and survival, 1963–1987

Abstract

From information on mortality of Jews obtained from individual death certificates and population data from surveys of the Jewish population undertaken in 1963 and 1987, age‐specific death rates and life expectancy of the Jewish population of Rhode Island are compared with those of the total white population for 1963 and 1987 to assess changing differentials. The Jewish mortality experience continues to differ from that of the larger population even while both groups have experienced noticeable improvements. For males, the age standardized rates have widened in favor of Jews as have the life expectancies at birth and the percentage surviving to old age. By contrast, for females, the standardized death rate has widened considerably in favor of whites, while life expectancy has improved almost identically for both groups and therefore remained about equal, as it was in 1963. Reasons for these patterns are explored through attention to differences between Jews and the general white population in death rates at particular stages of the life cycle. Jews tend to be more advantaged at all but the most advanced ages, age groups in which proportionally more of the Jewish population and Jewish deaths are concentrated.     

Urban and rural differences in mortality and causes of death in historical Poland

The purpose of this paper is to document and interpret urban-rural differences in mortality in the past. To this end, we used data on mortality in Wielkopolska, Poland, in the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th century. The data on mortality in rural areas (N = 1,173,910 deceased), small towns (N = 573,903 deceased), and Poznań, the capital of the Wielkopolska region (N = 86,352 deceased), were gathered from original Prussian statistical yearbooks (Preussische Statistik). Causes of death were also analyzed (rural areas, N = 449,576 deceased; small towns, N = 238,365 deceased; Poznań, N = 61,512 deceased). Mortality measures such as crude death rate (CDR), infant death rate (IDR), and neonatal and postneonatal death rates were calculated. Life tables were constructed for both stationary and stable population models and measures of the opportunity for natural selection calculated (Crow's index I(m), potential gross reproduction rate R(pot), and biological state index I(bs)). Relative frequencies of leading causes of death were computed. Stratification depending on the place of residence was evident in all mortality measures as well as in the values of the life tables and the measures of the opportunity for natural selection, but it was reverse of what is observed today in developed countries. In Poznań (a large industrial city), the mortality situation was the least favorable. It was caused by large population density, lack of water supply and sewage systems (up to 1896), and bad working conditions. The values of CDR ranged between 26.89-31.46, and IDR between 190.6-280.5. Newborn life expectancy (for a stable population model) was 31.6 years, I(m) = 0.79, R(pot) = 0.85, and I(bs) = 0.47. The most common causes of death were tuberculosis, other diseases of the respiratory and circulatory systems, dysentery and diarrhea, and cancer. These diseases were less common in rural areas, so they had the most favorable values of mortality measures (CDR between 22.87-27.32, IDR between 181.8-219.4, life expectancy of newborn e(0) = 42.12, I(m) = 0.55, R(pot) = 0.93, I(bs) = 0.60). Infectious diseases (other than tuberculosis), frailty at birth, and frailty in old age were the most frequent causes of death in rural areas. Small towns (population <20,000) had a mortality intermediate between city and rural areas.     

Has the transition to agriculture reshaped the demographic structure of prehistoric populations? New evidence from the Levant

This paper presents the demographic changes that followed the transition from a hunting-gathering way of life (Natufian) to an agricultural, food-producing economy (Neolithic) in the southern Levant. The study is based on 217 Natufian (10,500-8,300 BC) skeletons and 262 Neolithic (8,300-5,500 BC) skeletons. Age and sex identification were carried out, and life tables were constructed. A five-parameter competing hazard model developed by Siler ([1979] Ecology 60:750-757) was used to smooth life-table data. No indication of increased mortality with the advent of agriculture was noted. On the contrary, both life expectancy at birth (24.6 vs. 25.5 years) and adults' mean age at death (31.2 vs. 32.1 years) increased slightly from the Natufian to the Neolithic period (assuming stationary populations). Yet the transition to agriculture affected males and females differently: mean age at death in the Natufian was higher for adult females compared to adult males, while in the Neolithic, it was the reverse. One interpretation given to the distribution of female ages at death is that with the onset of the Neolithic period, maternal mortality increased as a result of a concomitant increase in fertility. If the adoption of agriculture in the Levant increased the rate of population growth at the beginning of the Neolithic, expectation of life may have increased dramatically.     

百草枯和草甘膦对多刺裸腹溞的毒性效应

采用急性毒性实验方法研究了两种常见除草剂百草枯和草甘膦对多刺裸腹溞(Moina macrocopa)的48hLC50值,应用生命表实验方法研究了亚致死浓度的百草枯(0、0.01和0.04mg·L-1)和草甘膦(0、0.4和1.6mg·L-1)对多刺裸腹溞生命表统计学参数的影响。结果表明:百草枯和草甘膦对多刺裸腹溞的48hLC50值分别为0.626和26.287mg·L-1;百草枯浓度对多刺裸腹溞的生命期望、世代时间、净生殖率和种群内禀增长率有显著影响(P<0.01),草甘膦浓度对多刺裸腹溞的生命期望、世代时间和种群内禀增长率有显著影响(P<0.01),百草枯和草甘膦的交互作用对多刺裸腹溞的世代时间和种群内禀增长率有显著影响(P<0.01)。多重比较显示:当忽略草甘膦的影响时,0.01mg·L-1的百草枯使多刺裸腹溞的生命期望显著延长,而0.04mg·L-1的百草枯则相反,0.04mg·L-1的百草枯使多刺裸腹溞的净生殖率显著降低;当忽略百草枯的影响时,0.4和1.6mg·L-1的草甘膦均使多刺裸腹溞的生命期望显著缩短;与空白对照组相比,0.01mg·L-1的百草枯和1.6mg·L-1的草甘膦混合液使多刺裸腹溞的世代时间显著延长;而0.04mg·L-1的百草枯和0、0.4、1.6mg·L-1的草甘膦混合液均使多刺裸腹溞的世代时间显著缩短,种群内禀增长率显著降低。随着草甘膦浓度的升高,0.04mg·L-1的百草枯对多刺裸腹溞的毒性显著降低,表现出明显的拮抗作用。     

Prioritizing child health interventions in ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death

Background

The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011–2015). We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini_health).

Methods and Findings

We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011–2015). Interventions are scaled-up to 1) government target levels, 2) 90% coverage and 3) 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini_health). Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini_health) substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19.

Conclusions

The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini_health).     

Calculation of longevity and life expectancy in captive elephants

The concepts of longevity (longest lived) and life expectancy (typical age at death) are common demographic parameters that provide insight into a population. Defined as the longest lived individual, longevity is easily calculated but is not representative, as only one individual will live to this extreme. Longevity records for North American Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and African elephants (Loxodonta africana) have not yet been set, as the oldest individuals (77 and 53 years, respectively) are still alive. One Asian elephant lived to 86 years in the Taipei Zoo. This is comparable to the maximum (though not typical) longevity estimated in wild populations. Calculation of life expectancy, however, must use statistics that are appropriate for the data available, the distribution of the data, and the species' biology. Using a simple arithmetic mean to describe the non‐normally distributed age at death for elephant populations underestimates life expectancy. Use of life‐table analysis to estimate median survivorship or survival analysis to estimate average survivorship are more appropriate for the species' biology and the data available, and provide more accurate estimates. Using a life‐table, the median life expectancy for female Asian elephants (Lx=0.50) is 35.9 years in North America and 41.9 years in Europe. Survival analysis estimates of average life expectancy for Asian elephants are 47.6 years in Europe and 44.8 years in North America. Survival analysis estimates for African elephants are less robust due to less data. Currently the African elephant average life expectancy estimate in North America is 33.0 years, but this is likely to increase with more data, as it has over the past 10 years. Zoo Biol 23:365–373, 2004. © 2004 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Relationship of income and childlessness

ABSTRACT

We investigated the impact of diabetes on US life expectancy by sex and race/ethnicity using a prospective cohort study design. Cohorts were drawn from 1997 to 2009 waves of the National Health Interview Survey and linked to death records through December 31, 2011. We combined data on the prevalence of diabetes among decedents with estimates of the hazard ratios of individuals diagnosed with diabetes to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) by age, sex, and race/ethnicity at ages 30 and above. These estimates were then applied to deaths in the official US life table for 2010 to estimate effects of diabetes on life expectancy.

Diabetes was responsible for a reduction of 0.83 years of life expectancy for men at age 30 and 0.89 years for 30-year-old women. The impact was greatest among Black women at 1.05 years. Estimates based on traditional demographic and actuarial methods using the frequency with which a disease appears as an underlying cause of death on death certificates produced a reduction in life expectancy at age 30 of only 0.33 years.

We conclude that diabetes is substantially reducing US longevity and that its effect is seriously underestimated when using data on underlying causes of death.     

A genetic and demographic study of hemophilia A in Brazil

A genetic and demographic study was made of patients with hemophilia A in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during a 15-year period. The study comprised 104 patients belonging to 70 pedigrees. Life expectancy at birth increased from 32.2 to 44.5 years, mean age of death from 11.1 to 14.6 years, and survival to maturity from 33 to 38%. However, fertility decreased from an average number of 1.6 to 0.8 children. Among the normal brothers, the average number of offspring was decreased from 2.2 to 1.5 children. The fitness of patients in this population, in spite of the increase of the average life expectancy, was decreased due to the decrease of fertility, from 0.47 to 0.43 using the normal brother as control, and from 0.35 to 0.20 using the general population as control.     

Faster Increases in Human Life Expectancy Could Lead to Slower Population Aging

Counterintuitively, faster increases in human life expectancy could lead to slower population aging. The conventional view that faster increases in human life expectancy would lead to faster population aging is based on the assumption that people become old at a fixed chronological age. A preferable alternative is to base measures of aging on people’s time left to death, because this is more closely related to the characteristics that are associated with old age. Using this alternative interpretation, we show that faster increases in life expectancy would lead to slower population aging. Among other things, this finding affects the assessment of the speed at which countries will age.     

Population dynamics and production of Daphnia hyalina in a eutrophic reservoir

The population dynamics and production of Daphnia hyaiina^ the dominant cladoceran i n Eglwys Nynydd, a shallow eutrophic reservoir in South Wales, were studied for 2 years against a background of limnological measurements. The appearance and development of successive generations from egg to adult could be followed from changing numbers in arbitrarily defined size classes. Seasonal variations in mean length, mean brood-size and proportion of gravid adults were recorded and mean brood-size was related to changing food and temperature conditions. Egg-development times for D. hyaiina were determined in culture and the population parameters finite birth (S), instantaneous birth (b′), instantaneous population change (r′), instantaneous death (d′) and finite death rates (D) were estimated from field data. Turnover and production estimates were calculated from finite death rates and biomass. The calculated potential rate of increase (b′) was nearly always greater than the observed rate of increase (r′): seasonal changes in death rate (d′) generally parallel changes in birth rate (b′) but remain somewhat out of phase. Population oscillations are probably due t o a delay in the expression of the effects of population density upon birth and death rates. The mean biomass of Daphnia in 1970 was 0-57 mg dry wt/l (0-88 g C/m²) and in 1971 0-32 mg dry wt/l (0.49 g C/m²). Annual production for Daphnia was 11-8 mg dry wt/l (18-2 g C/m²) in 1970 and 8-30 mg dry wt/l (12 8 g C/m²) in 1971. Information available on primary production in the reservoir suggests that the production of Daphnia accounts for less than 2% of gross primary production. However, the pattern of population growth of Daphnia in Eglwys Nynydd almost certainly reflects a food limited system. In summer, blue-green algae may be abundant but serve as a poor food source: throughout the blue-green bloom egg production remains low, at times remaining below 0-5 eggs/adult.