Increasing temperature, not mean temperature, is a cue for avian timing of reproduction

Timing of reproduction in temperate-zone birds is strongly correlated with spring temperature, with an earlier onset of breeding in warmer years. Females adjust their timing of egg laying between years to be synchronized with local food sources and thereby optimize reproductive output. However, climate change currently disrupts the link between predictive environmental cues and spring phenology. To investigate direct effects of temperature on the decision to lay and its genetic basis, we used pairs of great tits (Parus major) with known ancestry and exposed them to simulated spring scenarios in climate-controlled aviaries. In each of three years, we exposed birds to different patterns of changing temperature. We varied the timing of a temperature change, the daily temperature amplitude, and the onset and speed of a seasonal temperature rise. We show that females fine-tune their laying in response to a seasonal increase in temperature, whereas mean temperature and daily temperature variation alone do not affect laying dates. Luteinizing hormone concentrations and gonadal growth in early spring were not influenced by temperature or temperature rise, possibly posing a constraint to an advancement of breeding. Similarities between sisters in their laying dates indicate genetic variation in cue sensitivity. These results refine our understanding of how changes in spring climate might affect the mismatch in avian timing and thereby population viability.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Latitude affects degree of advancement in laying by birds in response to food supplementation: a meta-analysis

Food supplementation experiments have provided considerable information about the importance of resource availability in timing reproduction. Supplemented birds usually advance breeding over non-supplemented controls. Initial observations suggested that degree of advancement in studies conducted at higher latitudes was less than in those at lower latitudes. We hypothesized that birds at high latitudes are less responsive to the "supplementary" cue of food. We tested this hypothesis using a literature-based meta-analysis of 36 papers which, because several papers presented separate data sets from different years, yielded 56 "studies." We used step-wise regression to determine whether latitude, elevation, the duration of supplementation, and the migratory status of the species predicted the degree to which mean clutch initiation dates of food supplemented birds differed from non-supplemented controls (i.e., effect size = [Formula: see text]). Consistent with our predictions, there was a significant inverse relationship between effect size and latitude: elevation, migratory status, and duration of treatment contributed little to the model. Because the response of animals' reproductive systems to environmental information is mediated by the neuroendocrine system, we discuss two models: (1) the adaptive specialization hypothesis in which higher latitude species that experience a relatively short breeding season have evolved a reliance on photic cues while exhibiting reduced sensitivity to non-photic cues; and (2) the conditional plasticity hypothesis in which an individual might show a marked response to non-photic information if it lived at low latitudes, but be largely driven by photic cues, endogenous rhythms, or both to the relative exclusion of non-photic information if it lived at higher latitudes.     

Sex differences in the response to environmental cues regulating seasonal reproduction in birds

Although it is axiomatic that males and females differ in relation to many aspects of reproduction related to physiology, morphology and behaviour, relatively little is known about possible sex differences in the response to cues from the environment that control the timing of seasonal breeding. This review concerns the environmental regulation of seasonal reproduction in birds and how this process might differ between males and females. From an evolutionary perspective, the sexes can be expected to differ in the cues they use to time reproduction. Female reproductive fitness typically varies more as a function of fecundity selection, while male reproductive fitness varies more as a function sexual selection. Consequently, variation in the precision of the timing of egg laying is likely to have more serious fitness consequences for females than for males, while variation in the timing of recrudescence of the male testes and accompanying territory establishment and courtship are likely to have more serious fitness consequences for males. From the proximate perspective, sex differences in the control of reproduction could be regulated via the response to photoperiod or in the relative importance and action of supplementary factors (such as temperature, food supply, nesting sites and behavioural interactions) that adjust the timing of reproduction so that it is in step with local conditions. For example, there is clear evidence in several temperate zone avian species that females require both supplementary factors and long photoperiods in order for follicles to develop, while males can attain full gonadal size based on photoperiodic stimulation alone. The neuroendocrine basis of these sex differences is not well understood, though there are many candidate mechanisms in the brain as well as throughout the entire hypothalamo-pituitary-gonadal axis that might be important.     

Do Blue Tits time their breeding based on cues obtained by consuming buds?

ABSTRACT.   Many temperate-zone birds must track seasonal variation in food availability to time breeding and enhance reproductive success. However, the external cues birds use to fine-tune sexual development and timing of reproduction remain unclear. One possibility is that birds may use chemical substances in plants and bud tissues as a reliable predictor of leaf flush and the appearance of caterpillars, the preferred prey of many insectivorous birds during the breeding season. However, few data on seasonal shifts in key plant material consumption are available. To test this hypothesis, we examined the gizzard contents of Corsican Blue Tits ( Cyanistes caeruleus ), a small passerine bird with a breeding schedule tightly linked to the phenology of oak trees. We quantified and compared the consumption of tree buds by birds captured during winter (nonbreeding) and early spring (prebreeding) and found that bud use by Blue Tits was limited and constant through time. Fewer than 30% of birds had buds in their gizzards during the critical prebreeding period, and these items represented less than 1% of gizzard contents. It is unlikely that this limited use of buds allowed birds to track a potential chemical signal at the time of reproductive decision making. Unless more data on the consumption of plant material become available, we suggest that other environmental factors be examined to help identify the cues used by temperate-zone birds to time their reproduction.     

Travel schedules to the high arctic: barnacle geese trade-off the timing of migration with accumulation of fat deposits

On their way from the wintering area to the breeding grounds in Spitsbergen, barnacle geese Branta leucopsis stage on islands off the coast of Norway. The aim of this study was to describe when the geese migrate in relation to the body stores deposited and explore questions related to the concept of optimal migration schedules and on the possible mechanisms involved. We estimated fat stores by repeated assessments of the abdominal profile index of individually marked females throughout staging. Reproductive success was derived from observations of the same individuals later in the annual cycle. Females arriving late, or with low fat stores at arrival, achieved higher fat deposition rates, probably by spending more time foraging. But they were unable to match final fat scores of birds that arrived earlier or with larger fat stores. Reproductive success was correlated with the timing of migration and individuals departing at intermediate dates achieved highest success. The exact date of peak reproductive success depended on the size of fat stores accumulated, such that low-quality birds (depositing less fat) benefited most from an early departure to the breeding grounds. Observations in the breeding colonies showed that these birds did not initiate a nest earlier but they spent a longer time in Spitsbergen before settling. The length of stay in Norway was close to the prediction derived from an optimisation model relating spring events to eventual breeding success. Poorest performing birds stayed longer than expected, perhaps depositing more fat to avoid the risk of starvation. Two possible mechanisms of the timing of migration were contrasted and it seemed that the geese departed for migration as soon as they were unable to accumulate any more fat stores.     

Favorable spring conditions can buffer the impact of winter carryover effects on a key breeding decision in an Arctic‐breeding seabird

1. The availability and investment of energy among successive life‐history stages is a key feature of carryover effects. In migratory organisms, examining how both winter and spring experiences carryover to affect breeding activity is difficult due to the challenges in tracking individuals through these periods without impacting their behavior, thereby biasing results.
2. Using common eiders Somateria mollissima, we examined whether spring conditions at an Arctic breeding colony (East Bay Island, Nunavut, Canada) can buffer the impacts of winter temperatures on body mass and breeding decisions in birds that winter at different locations (Nuuk and Disko Bay, Greenland, and Newfoundland, Canada; assessed by analyzing stable isotopes of 13‐carbon in winter‐grown claw samples). Specifically, we used path analysis to examine how wintering and spring environmental conditions interact to affect breeding propensity (a key reproductive decision influencing lifetime fitness in female eiders) within the contexts of the timing of colony arrival, pre‐breeding body mass (body condition), and a physiological proxy for foraging effort (baseline corticosterone).
3. We demonstrate that warmer winter temperatures predicted lower body mass at arrival to the nesting colony, whereas warmer spring temperatures predicted earlier arrival dates and higher arrival body mass. Both higher body mass and earlier arrival dates of eider hens increased the probability that birds would initiate laying (i.e., higher breeding propensity). However, variation in baseline corticosterone was not linked to either winter or spring temperatures, and it had no additional downstream effects on breeding propensity.
4. Overall, we demonstrate that favorable pre‐breeding conditions in Arctic‐breeding common eiders can compensate for the impact that unfavorable wintering conditions can have on breeding investment, perhaps due to greater access to foraging areas prior to laying.

     

Manipulation of photoperiod perception advances gonadal growth but not laying date in the great tit

In seasonal environments, organisms use biotic and abiotic cues to time various biological processes that are crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success. Photoperiod is the best‐known cue used to regulate gonadal development, migration and moult of many animal species. In birds, the relationship between photoperiod and gonadal development is clearly established, but we have little understanding on whether photoperiod also regulates actual timing of egg laying under natural conditions. Elucidating the link between photoperiod and timing of breeding is however key to understand whether an evolutionary change in sensitivity to photoperiod is a possible mechanism through which organisms could adjust their seasonal timing in response to climate warming. Here, we investigated the causal relationship between photoperiod, gonadal growth and laying date in wild female great tits. We experimentally increased the photoperiod perceived by the birds in spring by clipping head feathers, and we subsequently monitored gonadal development in the lab and egg laying dates in the wild. We show that our manipulation increased the photoperiod perceived by the birds to a level that approximately corresponds to an advancement of ten calendar days. This increase in perceived photoperiod led to an acceleration of gonadal development, but not to an advancement of egg laying dates. Our results indicate that photoperiod sensitivity is not constraining the advancement of laying date under current environmental conditions and suggest that evolution of sensitivity to other supplementary cues is necessary to advance reproduction under global warming.     

Pre-laying climatic cues can time reproduction to optimally match offspring hatching and ice conditions in an Arctic marine bird

Individuals breeding in seasonal environments are under strong selection to time reproduction to match offspring demand and the quality of the post-natal environment. Timing requires both the ability to accurately interpret the appropriate environmental cues, and the flexibility to respond to inter-annual variation in these cues. Determining which cues are linked to reproductive timing, what these cues are predicting and understanding the fitness consequences of variation in timing, is therefore of paramount interest to evolutionary and applied ecologists, especially in the face of global climate change. We investigated inter-annual relationships between climatic variation and the timing of reproduction in Canada’s largest breeding population of Arctic common eiders (Somateria mollissima) in East Bay, Nunavut. Warmer spring temperatures predicted both earlier mean annual laying dates and the earlier ice-free conditions required by ducklings for post-natal growth. Warmer springs had higher variation in this temperature cue, and the population laying distribution became increasingly positively-skewed in warmer summers, potentially indicating that more low-quality females had the opportunity to commence laying in warmer years. Females that timed laying to match duckling hatching just prior to fully ice-free conditions obtained the highest duckling survival probability. Inter-annual data on repeated breeding attempts revealed that the individuals examined show a similar degree of laying flexibility in response to climatic variation; however, there was significant individual variation in the absolute timing of laying within an average year. This work sheds light on how reproductive timing is related to and influenced by variation in local climate and provides vital information on how climate-related variation in reproductive timing influence a fitness measure in an Arctic species. Results are especially relevant to future work in polar environments given that global climatic changes are predicted to be most intense at high latitudes.     

Food supplementation experiments: A tool to reveal mechanisms that mediate timing of reproduction

Food supplementation of free-living animals has been used to address the role of availability of resources in the timing of reproduction. A meta-analysis by Schoech and Hahn suggested that responsiveness of the reproductive axis to the supplementary cue of food is lessened at higher latitudes, presumably because the brief time during which conditions are appropriate to rear offspring has led to an evolved resistance to supplementary cues with a primary reliance on photoperiod. Unfortunately, few investigators have examined the potential underlying mechanisms that mediate this differential responsiveness to supplemental food across latitudes. Considerable research, however, links nutritional state and plasma glucocorticoid levels, both of which impinge upon the reproductive axis. Long-term research on Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) in my laboratory shows that suburban birds with access to ad libitum supplemental food express early breeding and lower plasma corticosterone (CORT) levels in comparison to jays in nearby natural habitat. Furthermore, supplementation in natural habitat advances laying, with the largest effects occurring in bad years (i.e., years defined by late breeding and poor reproductive output by non-supplemented controls). Similarly, reproductive output of supplemented jays is greater and exhibits considerably less variance than do controls, suggesting fitness benefits of supplementation that are tied to advanced breeding. Generally, CORT levels in early-breeding supplemented jays are lower than are those of controls. Also, regression analysis suggests that clutch-initiation dates of non-supplemented female breeders are predicted by baseline CORT levels. Although these data are not conclusive and trends can be obscured by year-effects, they suggest a role for CORT in timing of breeding. Whether this link might help to explain the above-referenced latitudinal trends remains to be characterized.     

Elevational range and timing of breeding in the birds of Ladakh: the effects of body mass, status and diet

We studied the effects of body mass, status (resident or migratory) and diet on the breeding elevation range and timing of reproduction of the birds in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, northwestern India. Most of breeding birds of Ladakh are Palearctic or breed at high elevations in the mountains. There is a small proportion of Oriental species, and no bird is endemic to this region. We found that heavier birds tended to start their egg-laying earlier than lighter ones. Since body mass is related to the length of incubation and nesting periods, it would appear that one result of this phenomenon is that the time of peak demand for food for most birds coincides with peak food abundance in summer. Status affected the elevation of the breeding range, with resident birds tending to breed at higher elevations than summer visitors. Residents and summer breeders also differed significantly in their diet composition, with the former feeding mainly on plants and seeds, and the latter feeding on molluscs, insects and worms.     

Fruit abundance may fine-tune timing of reproduction of the Chilean Elaenia (Elaenia chilensis), a long-distance migratory bird in South America

Timing of reproduction has a great impact on the breeding success of birds because a mismatch with the moment when environmental conditions are warm or when food is most plentiful can reduce nestling survival and increase the energetic cost of parental care. Consequently, birds synchronize gonadal maturation with the most favourable environmental conditions, using photoperiod changes throughout the year as an initial proximal cue. Additionally, non-photic cues, such as temperature and food abundance, may be necessary to fine-tune reproductive timing. However, the influence of non-photic cues on finely tuning reproductive timing is not yet fully understood for migratory birds. Here, we evaluate how much non-photic cues influence the reproductive timing of the Chilean Elaenia Elaenia chilensis, a long-distance migrant that reproduces in the Andean–Patagonian Forest. We assessed associations of mean temperature, ripe fruit and arthropod abundances with the number of nests in the laying period, and also with the number of nests with hatchlings. In both analyses we used cross-correlations and partial least squares path modelling. Mean temperature was not consistently associated with the breeding phenology of Chilean Elaenias. The increase in number of nests in the laying period was preceded by the increase in caterpillar abundance and coincided with the increase in ripe fruit abundance. The timing of nests with hatchlings matched with the timing of highest ripe fruit abundance. Both types of food could contribute to the beginning of reproduction of birds and be used as proximal cues by Chilean Elaenias. Ripe fruits would also be beneficial for nestling growth because parents feed them with fruits, and might potentially play an ultimate role in reproduction. Because ripe fruit abundance was related to the egg-laying and hatching stages, it may be the main cue used by Chilean Elaenias to fine-tune reproductive timing. These findings allow advances in our understanding of the importance of non-photic cues in the reproductive phenology of migratory birds and also generalize our knowledge among regions and taxa, as most studies on this topic focus on the Northern Hemisphere.     

Breeding timed to maximize reproductive success for a migratory songbird: the importance of phenological asynchrony

Phenological advances and trophic mismatches are frequently reported ecological consequences of climate warming. Trophic mismatches occur when phenological responses to environmental conditions differ among trophic levels such that the timing of resource demand by consumers becomes decoupled from supply. We used 25 years of demographic measurements of a migratory songbird (the black‐throated blue warbler Setophaga caerulescens) to compare its breeding phenology to the phenology of both its caterpillar prey and the foliage on which caterpillars feed. Caterpillar biomass in this forest did not show a predictable seasonal pulse. Nest initiation by warblers in this northern hardwood forest was therefore not timed to coincide with a peak in food availability for nestlings. Nonetheless, timing of first clutches was strongly associated with spring leaf expansion (slope ± SE = 0.56 ± 0.08 days per day of change in leaf phenology, R² = 0.66). Warblers adjusted the timing of breeding to early springs mainly by shortening the interval between arrival and clutch initiation, but this likely has limits because recent early springs are approaching the relatively inflexible dates when birds arrive on the breeding grounds. Although the timing of first nests did not match 1:1 with leaf‐out phenology, the adjustments in breeding time maximized mean annual reproductive success. Nest predation had the greatest effect on annual reproductive success, but the ability of nesting warblers to appropriately track leaf phenology accounted for effects on annual reproductive success comparable to the influence of variation in caterpillar abundance and conspecific density. Nesting phenology in black‐throated blue warblers was generally well matched to the timing of leaf‐out, even though the match was not 1:1. Without measurements of reproductive success, these unequal phenological shifts might otherwise have been interpreted as having negative ecological consequences.     

Innate sex differences in the timing of spring migration in a songbird

In migrating animals protandry is the phenomenon whereby males of a species arrive at the breeding grounds earlier than females. In the present study we investigated the proximate causes of protandry in a migratory songbird, the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe. Previous experiments with caged birds revealed that males and females show differentiated photoperiod-induced migratory habits. However, it remained open whether protandry would still occur without photoperiodic cues. In this study we kept captive first-year birds under constant photoperiod and environmental conditions in a "common garden" experiment. Male northern wheatears started their spring migratory activity earlier than females, even in the absence of environmental cues. This indicates that protandry in the northern wheatear has an endogenous basis with an innate earlier spring departure of males than females.     

Climate change and fitness components of a migratory bird breeding in the Mediterranean region

The increase in spring temperatures in temperate regions over the last two decades has led to an advancing spring phenology, and most resident birds have responded to it by advancing their onset of breeding. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a long‐distance migrant bird with a relatively late onset of breeding with respect to both resident birds and spring phenology in Europe. In the present correlational study, we show that some fitness components of pied flycatchers are suffering from climate change in two of the southernmost European breeding populations. In both montane study areas, temperature during May increased between 1980 and 2000 and an advancement of oak leafing was detected by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to assess tree phenology. This might result in an advancement of the peak in availability of caterpillars, the main prey during the nestling stage. Over the past 18 yr, the time of egg laying and clutch size of pied flycatchers were not affected by the increase in spring temperatures in these Mediterranean populations. However, this increase seems to have an adverse effect on the reproductive output of pied flycatchers over the same period. Our data suggest that the mismatch between the timing of peak food supply and nestling demand caused by recent climate change might result in a reduction of parental energy expenditure that is reflected in a reduction of nestling growth and survival of fledged young in our study populations. The data seem to indicate that the breeding season has not shifted and it is the environment that has shifted away from the timing of the pied flycatcher breeding season. Mediterranean pied flycatchers were not able to advance their onset of breeding, probably, because they are constrained by their late arrival date and their restricted high altitude breeding habitat selection near the southern border of their range.     

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival‐breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival‐breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long‐term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival‐to‐breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg‐laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5–6 days), with considerable between‐individual variation in the arrival‐breeding interval. The arrival‐breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early‐arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first‐year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival‐breeding interval being absent in late‐arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early‐ to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late‐arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early‐ versus late‐arriving birds.     

Long‐term phenological shifts and intra‐specific differences in migratory change in the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus

Climate change can influence many aspects of avian phenology and especially migratory shifts and changes in breeding onset receive much research interest in this context. However, changes in these different life‐cycle events in birds are often investigated separately and by means of ringing records of mixed populations. In this long‐term study on the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, we investigated timing of spring and autumn migration in conjunction with timing of breeding. We made distinction among individuals with regard to age, sex, juvenile origin and migratory phase. The data set comprised 22‐yr of ringing records and two temporally separated data sets of egg‐laying dates and arrival of the breeding population close to the ringing site. The results reveal an overall advancement consistent in most, but not all, phenological events. During spring migration, early and median passage of males and females became earlier by between 4.4 to 6.3 d and median egg‐laying dates became earlier by 5 d. Male arrival advanced more, which may lead to an increase in the degree of protandry in the future. Among breeding individuals, only female arrival advanced in timing. In autumn, adults and locally hatched juvenile females did not advanced median passage, but locally hatched juvenile males appeared 4.2 d earlier. Migrating juvenile males and females advanced passage both in early and median migratory phase by between 8.4 to 10.1 d. The dissimilarities in the response between birds of different age, sex and migratory phase emphasize that environmental change may elicit intra‐specific selection pressures. The overall consistency of the phenological change in spring, autumn and egg‐laying, coupled with the unchanged number of days between median spring and autumn migration in adults, indicate that the breeding area residence has advanced seasonally but remained temporally constant.     

Tough decisions: Reproductive timing and output vary with individuals' physiology,behavior and past success in a social opportunistic breeder

This article is part of a Special Issue "SBN 2014".Photoperiod and the hormonal response it triggers are key determinants of reproductive timing in birds. However, other cues and physiological traits may permit flexibility in the timing of breeding and perhaps facilitate adaptation to global change. Opportunistic breeders are excellent models to study the adaptive significance of this flexibility, especially at the individual level. Here, we sought to quantify whether particular male physiological and behavioral traits were linked to reproductive timing and output in wild-derived zebra finches. We repeatedly assessed male stress-induced corticosterone levels (CORT), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and activity before releasing them into outdoor aviaries and quantifying each pair's breeding timing, investment, and output over a seven-month period. Despite unlimited access to food and water, the colony breeding activity occurred in waves, probably due to interpair social stimulations. Pairs adjusted their inter-clutch interval and clutch size to social and temperature cues, respectively, but only after successful breeding attempts, suggesting a facultative response to external cues. When these effects were controlled for statistically or experimentally, breeding intervals were repeatable within individuals across reproductive attempts. In addition, males' first laying date and total offspring production varied with complex interactions between pre-breeding CORT, BMR and activity levels. These results suggest that no one trait is under selection but that, instead, correlational selection acts on hormone levels, metabolism, and behavior. Together our results suggest that studying inter-individual variation in breeding strategy and their multiple physiological and behavioral underpinnings may greatly improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the evolution of breeding decisions.     

Reversal of breeding season by lowland birds at higher altitudes in western Cameroon

Evidence of breeding during the dry season is given for 31 species of lowland birds in montane and semi-montane areas in western Cameroon. At least 17 of these species are shown to breed in the wet season at lower altitudes in West Africa. This reversal of breeding season may be due to the unusually heavy rainfall and high humidities which cause temperatures to decrease more rapidly with altitude than on mountains with drier climates. Low temperatures and heavy rainfall during the wet season prevent almost all montane species from breeding then, and affect similarly the lowland birds whose ranges overlap with those of montane birds. Breeding seasons of some lowland species in Cameroon have previously been considered prolonged, but separation of breeding records by altitude reveals clear seasonality.     

Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

An uneven change in climate across the Northern Hemisphere might severely affect the phenology of migrating animals, and especially long-distance migrating birds relying on local climatic cues to regulate the timing of migration. We examine the forward displacement of spring in both staging areas and breeding grounds of one such population, the East Atlantic light-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla hrota, and evaluate to what extent their migration has made a proportional response. On the breeding grounds in Svalbard the onset of spring advanced 2 weeks during the 24-year period, whereas no significant trend was found in the temperate staging areas. The timing of migration was constant throughout the study period, mirroring the static climatic conditions in the spring staging areas. These findings indicate a global warming-induced phenological mismatch in light-bellied brent geese, as these might arrive on their breeding grounds well beyond optimal breeding conditions. Our data indicated that productivity was negatively influenced by phenological delay and positively influenced by prolonged snow cover. We argue that both these effects might be representative of a negative influence of the growing phenological mismatch, because years with later thaw might partly offset the effects of increasingly earlier Svalbard springs. During the study period reproduction fell below annual mortality, and the population declined in recent years. The wider implications of these findings may extend to many migrating species, and highlight the urgent need to clarify how global change may influence cues and the associated timing of important life history activities.     

Climate change and micro-geographic variation in laying date

Climate change has been shown to affect the timing of reproduction, with earlier reproduction being associated with an increase in temperature. Changes in the timing of reproduction arise from changes in food availability as well as other factors, and differences in the timing of reproduction among sites may cause sites with early reproduction to contribute disproportionately to local recruitment. In this study, spatial variation in the laying date of barn swallows Hirundo rustica at 39 sites in a 45-km²study area during the period 1971–2004 was used to investigate micro-geographic patterns in the timing of breeding. I found that individuals breeding at sites with early reproduction had a disproportionately large reproductive success. Early sites were characterized by early plant phenology, as determined by the date of leafing of the broad-leaved elm Ulmus glabra and date of flowering of the snowdrop Galanthus nivalis during a single year. Such early sites showed greater advancement in laying date between 1971 and 2004 than the average site. Early sites were also generally occupied during more years by a larger number of breeders than were late sites. Breeders at early sites produced more fledglings, and breeders at such sites were characterized by a smaller adult body size and larger secondary sexual characters than individuals at the average site. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that temporal changes in the timing of reproduction occur as a consequence of differential recruitment at phenologically early sites that produce disproportionately large numbers of offspring. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.