Molecular‐clock methods for estimating evolutionary rates and timescales

The molecular clock presents a means of estimating evolutionary rates and timescales using genetic data. These estimates can lead to important insights into evolutionary processes and mechanisms, as well as providing a framework for further biological analyses. To deal with rate variation among genes and among lineages, a diverse range of molecular‐clock methods have been developed. These methods have been implemented in various software packages and differ in their statistical properties, ability to handle different models of rate variation, capacity to incorporate various forms of calibrating information and tractability for analysing large data sets. Choosing a suitable molecular‐clock model can be a challenging exercise, but a number of model‐selection techniques are available. In this review, we describe the different forms of evolutionary rate heterogeneity and explain how they can be accommodated in molecular‐clock analyses. We provide an outline of the various clock methods and models that are available, including the strict clock, local clocks, discrete clocks and relaxed clocks. Techniques for calibration and clock‐model selection are also described, along with methods for handling multilocus data sets. We conclude our review with some comments about the future of molecular clocks.     

Simulating and detecting autocorrelation of molecular evolutionary rates among lineages

Evolutionary timescales can be estimated from genetic data using phylogenetic methods based on the molecular clock. To account for molecular rate variation among lineages, a number of relaxed‐clock models have been developed. Some of these models assume that rates vary among lineages in an autocorrelated manner, so that closely related species share similar rates. In contrast, uncorrelated relaxed clocks allow all of the branch‐specific rates to be drawn from a single distribution, without assuming any correlation between rates along neighbouring branches. There is uncertainty about which of these two classes of relaxed‐clock models are more appropriate for biological data. We present an R package, NELSI, that allows the evolution of DNA sequences to be simulated according to a range of clock models. Using data generated by this package, we assessed the ability of two Bayesian phylogenetic methods to distinguish among different relaxed‐clock models and to quantify rate variation among lineages. The results of our analyses show that rate autocorrelation is typically difficult to detect, even when there is complete taxon sampling. This provides a potential explanation for past failures to detect rate autocorrelation in a range of data sets.     

Molecular clocks and geological dates: cytochrome b of Anolis extremus substantially contradicts dating of Barbados emergence

Even though molecular clocks vary in rate to some extent, they are widely used and very important in a range of evolutionary studies, not least in interpreting cause and colonization in phylogeography. Evolutionists may use island age and emergence to give the earliest possible date for colonization by a species and hence give the lower limit in a molecular clock calibration. The geology of the Lesser Antilles is well studied and Barbados, although composed of some ancient rocks, is thought to have emerged only about 1 million years ago (Ma). The cytochrome b mitochondrial gene is the most widely used gene in vertebrate phylogeography, and generally evolves at a rate of 1-2% per million years (Myr) for poikilothermic vertebrates. Divergence measured across almost all of this gene in the endemic anole (Anolis extremus) reveals a mean patristic distance of approximately 8.3% between this clade and its sister, together with distinct divergence and phylogeographical structure within Barbados. The divergence time, estimated by a range of procedures using four calibration points, is not in the least compatible with the proposed geological time of emergence of Barbados. Hence, either the molecular clock rate does not apply to the Barbadian anole population, or the geological dating of the emergence of Barbados is erroneous. The compatibility of geological times and molecular divergence of this complex on Martinique, together with relative rates tests comparing the rates on Barbados and Martinique, do not suggest atypical clock rates. The question of whether Barbados emerged much earlier than is currently thought, or whether the molecular clock assumptions are inappropriate, remains open.     

Genome-wide investigation reveals high evolutionary rates in annual model plants

Background  

Rates of molecular evolution vary widely among species. While significant deviations from molecular clock have been found in many taxa, effects of life histories on molecular evolution are not fully understood. In plants, annual/perennial life history traits have long been suspected to influence the evolutionary rates at the molecular level. To date, however, the number of genes investigated on this subject is limited and the conclusions are mixed. To evaluate the possible heterogeneity in evolutionary rates between annual and perennial plants at the genomic level, we investigated 85 nuclear housekeeping genes, 10 non-housekeeping families, and 34 chloroplast genes using the genomic data from model plants including Arabidopsis thaliana and Medicago truncatula for annuals and grape (Vitis vinifera) and popular (Populus trichocarpa) for perennials.     

Signalling entrains the peripheral circadian clock

In mammals, 24-h rhythms of behaviour and physiology are regulated by the circadian clock. The circadian clock is controlled by a central clock in the brain's suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) that synchronizes peripheral clocks in peripheral tissues. Clock genes in the SCN are primarily entrained by light. Increasing evidence has shown that peripheral clocks are also regulated by light and hormones independent of the SCN. How the peripheral clocks deal with internal signals is dependent on the relevance of a specific cue to a specific tissue. In different tissues, most genes that are under circadian control are not overlapping, revealing the tissue-specific control of peripheral clocks. We will discuss how different signals control the peripheral clocks in different peripheral tissues, such as the liver, gastrointestinal tract, and pancreas, and discuss the organ-to-organ communication between the peripheral clocks at the molecular level.     

A compound poisson process for relaxing the molecular clock

The molecular clock hypothesis remains an important conceptual and analytical tool in evolutionary biology despite the repeated observation that the clock hypothesis does not perfectly explain observed DNA sequence variation. We introduce a parametric model that relaxes the molecular clock by allowing rates to vary across lineages according to a compound Poisson process. Events of substitution rate change are placed onto a phylogenetic tree according to a Poisson process. When an event of substitution rate change occurs, the current rate of substitution is modified by a gamma-distributed random variable. Parameters of the model can be estimated using Bayesian inference. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo integration to evaluate the posterior probability distribution because the posterior probability involves high dimensional integrals and summations. Specifically, we use the Metropolis-Hastings-Green algorithm with 11 different move types to evaluate the posterior distribution. We demonstrate the method by analyzing a complete mtDNA sequence data set from 23 mammals. The model presented here has several potential advantages over other models that have been proposed to relax the clock because it is parametric and does not assume that rates change only at speciation events. This model should prove useful for estimating divergence times when substitution rates vary across lineages.     

Evolutionary rates of mitochondrial genomes correspond to diversification rates and to contemporary species richness in birds and reptiles

Rates of biological diversification should ultimately correspond to rates of genome evolution. Recent studies have compared diversification rates with phylogenetic branch lengths, but incomplete phylogenies hamper such analyses for many taxa. Herein, we use pairwise comparisons of confamilial sauropsid (bird and reptile) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome sequences to estimate substitution rates. These molecular evolutionary rates are considered in light of the age and species richness of each taxonomic family, using a random-walk speciation–extinction process to estimate rates of diversification. We find the molecular clock ticks at disparate rates in different families and at different genes. For example, evolutionary rates are relatively fast in snakes and lizards, intermediate in crocodilians and slow in turtles and birds. There was also rate variation across genes, where non-synonymous substitution rates were fastest at ATP8 and slowest at CO3. Family-by-gene interactions were significant, indicating that local clocks vary substantially among sauropsids. Most importantly, we find evidence that mitochondrial genome evolutionary rates are positively correlated with speciation rates and with contemporary species richness. Nuclear sequences are poorly represented among reptiles, but the correlation between rates of molecular evolution and species diversification also extends to 18 avian nuclear genes we tested. Thus, the nuclear data buttress our mtDNA findings.     

Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference using Relaxed-clocks and the Multispecies Coalescent

The multispecies coalescent (MSC) model accommodates both species divergences and within-species coalescent and provides a natural framework for phylogenetic analysis of genomic data when the gene trees vary across the genome. The MSC model implemented in the program bpp assumes a molecular clock and the Jukes–Cantor model, and is suitable for analyzing genomic data from closely related species. Here we extend our implementation to more general substitution models and relaxed clocks to allow the rate to vary among species. The MSC-with-relaxed-clock model allows the estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using genomic sequences sampled from contemporary species when the strict clock assumption is violated, and provides a simulation framework for evaluating species tree estimation methods. We conducted simulations and analyzed two real datasets to evaluate the utility of the new models. We confirm that the clock-JC model is adequate for inference of shallow trees with closely related species, but it is important to account for clock violation for distant species. Our simulation suggests that there is valuable phylogenetic information in the gene-tree branch lengths even if the molecular clock assumption is seriously violated, and the relaxed-clock models implemented in bpp are able to extract such information. Our Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms suffer from mixing problems when used for species tree estimation under the relaxed clock and we discuss possible improvements. We conclude that the new models are currently most effective for estimating population parameters such as species divergence times when the species tree is fixed.     

Heterogeneous genomic molecular clocks in primates

Using data from primates, we show that molecular clocks in sites that have been part of a CpG dinucleotide in recent past (CpG sites) and non-CpG sites are of markedly different nature, reflecting differences in their molecular origins. Notably, single nucleotide substitutions at non-CpG sites show clear generation-time dependency, indicating that most of these substitutions occur by errors during DNA replication. On the other hand, substitutions at CpG sites occur relatively constantly over time, as expected from their primary origin due to methylation. Therefore, molecular clocks are heterogeneous even within a genome. Furthermore, we propose that varying frequencies of CpG dinucleotides in different genomic regions may have contributed significantly to conflicting earlier results on rate constancy of mammalian molecular clock. Our conclusion that different regions of genomes follow different molecular clocks should be considered when inferring divergence times using molecular data and in phylogenetic analysis.     

Exploring the correlations between sequence evolution rate and phenotypic divergence across the Mammalian tree provides insights into adaptive evolution

Sequence evolution behaves in a relatively consistent manner, leading to one of the fundamental paradigms in biology, the existence of a ??molecular clock??. The molecular clock can be distilled to the concept of accumulation of substitutions, through time yielding a stable rate from which we can estimate lineage divergence. Over the last 50?years, evolutionary biologists have obtained an in-depth understanding of this clock??s nuances. It has been fine-tuned by taking into account the vast heterogeneity in rates across lineages and genes, leading to ??relaxed?? molecular clock methods for timetree reconstruction. Sequence rate varies with life history traits including body size, generation time and metabolic rate, and we review recent studies on this topic. However, few studies have explicitly examined correlates between molecular evolution and morphological evolution. The patterns observed across diverse lineages suggest that rates of molecular and morphological evolution are largely decoupled. We discuss how identifying the molecular mechanisms behind rapid functional radiations are central to understanding evolution. The vast functional divergence within mammalian lineages that have relatively ??slow?? sequence evolution refutes the hypotheses that pulses in diversification yielding major phenotypic change are the result of steady accumulation of substitutions. Patterns rather suggest phenotypic divergence is likely caused by regulatory alterations mediated through mechanisms such as insertions/deletions in functional regions. These can rapidly arise and sweep to fixation faster than predicted from a lineage??s sequence neutral substitution rate, enabling species to leapfrog between phenotypic ??islands??. We suggest research directions that could illuminate mechanisms behind the functional diversity we see today.     

Relaxed phylogenetics and dating with confidence

In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary process lies between these two extremes. Fortunately, intermediate models employing relaxed molecular clocks have been described. These models open the gate to a new field of “relaxed phylogenetics.” Here we introduce a new approach to performing relaxed phylogenetic analysis. We describe how it can be used to estimate phylogenies and divergence times in the face of uncertainty in evolutionary rates and calibration times. Our approach also provides a means for measuring the clocklikeness of datasets and comparing this measure between different genes and phylogenies. We find no significant rate autocorrelation among branches in three large datasets, suggesting that autocorrelated models are not necessarily suitable for these data. In addition, we place these datasets on the continuum of clocklikeness between a strict molecular clock and the alternative unrooted extreme. Finally, we present analyses of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61 plant, 99 metazoan, and 500 primate alignments. From these we conclude that our method is phylogenetically more accurate and precise than the traditional unrooted model while adding the ability to infer a timescale to evolution.     

Genomic clocks and evolutionary timescales

For decades, molecular clocks have helped to illuminate the evolutionary timescale of life, but now genomic data pose a challenge for time estimation methods. It is unclear how to integrate data from many genes, each potentially evolving under a different model of substitution and at a different rate. Current methods can be grouped by the way the data are handled (genes considered separately or combined into a 'supergene') and the way gene-specific rate models are applied (global versus local clock). There are advantages and disadvantages to each of these approaches, and the optimal method has not yet emerged. Fortunately, time estimates inferred using many genes or proteins have greater precision and appear to be robust to different approaches.     

Circadian molecular clocks tick along ontogenesis

The circadian system controls the timing of behavioral and physiological functions in most organisms studied. The review addresses the question of when and how the molecular clockwork underlying circadian oscillations within the central circadian clock in the suprachiasmatic nuclei of the hypothalamus (SCN) and the peripheral circadian clocks develops during ontogenesis. The current model of the molecular clockwork is summarized. The central SCN clock is viewed as a complex structure composed of a web of mutually synchronized individual oscillators. The importance of development of both the intracellular molecular clockwork as well as intercellular coupling for development of the formal properties of the circadian SCN clock is also highlighted. Recently, data has accumulated to demonstrate that synchronized molecular oscillations in the central and peripheral clocks develop gradually during ontogenesis and development extends into postnatal period. Synchronized molecular oscillations develop earlier in the SCN than in the peripheral clocks. A hypothesis is suggested that the immature clocks might be first driven by external entraining cues, and therefore, serve as "slave" oscillators. During ontogenesis, the clocks may gradually develop a complete set of molecular interlocked oscillations, i.e., the molecular clockwork, and become self-sustained clocks.     

Explosive radiations and the reliability of molecular clocks: island endemic radiations as a test case

The reliability of molecular clocks has been questioned for several key evolutionary radiations on the basis that the clock might run fast in explosive radiations. Molecular date estimates for the radiations of metazoan phyla (the Cambrian explosion) and modern orders of mammals and birds are in many cases twice as old as the palaeontological evidence would suggest. Could some aspect of explosive radiations speed the molecular clock, making molecular date estimates too old? Here we use 19 independent instances of recent explosive radiations of island endemic taxa as a model system for testing the proposed influence of rapid adaptive radiation on the rate of molecular evolution. These radiations are often characterized by many of the potential mechanisms for fast rates in explosive radiations--such as small population size, elevated speciation rate, rapid rate of morphological change, release from previous ecological constraints, and adaptation to new niches--and represent a wide variety of species, islands, and genes. However, we find no evidence of a consistent increase in rates in island taxa compared to their mainland relatives, and therefore find no support for the hypothesis that the molecular clock runs fast in explosive radiations.     

Epigenetic age prediction

Advanced age is the main common risk factor for cancer, cardiovascular disease and neurodegeneration. Yet, more is known about the molecular basis of any of these groups of diseases than the changes that accompany ageing itself. Progress in molecular ageing research was slow because the tools predicting whether someone aged slowly or fast (biological age) were unreliable. To understand ageing as a risk factor for disease and to develop interventions, the molecular ageing field needed a quantitative measure; a clock for biological age. Over the past decade, a number of age predictors utilising DNA methylation have been developed, referred to as epigenetic clocks. While they appear to estimate biological age, it remains unclear whether the methylation changes used to train the clocks are a reflection of other underlying cellular or molecular processes, or whether methylation itself is involved in the ageing process. The precise aspects of ageing that the epigenetic clocks capture remain hidden and seem to vary between predictors. Nonetheless, the use of epigenetic clocks has opened the door towards studying biological ageing quantitatively, and new clocks and applications, such as forensics, appear frequently. In this review, we will discuss the range of epigenetic clocks available, their strengths and weaknesses, and their applicability to various scientific queries.     

Faster evolutionary rates in endosymbiotic bacteria than in cospeciating insect hosts

The hypothesis of a universal molecular clock holds that divergent lineages exhibit approximately constant rates of nucleotide substitution over evolutionary time for a particular macromolecule. We compare divergences of ribosomal DNA for aphids (Insecta) and Buchnera, the maternally transmitted, endosymbiotic bacteria that have cospeciated with aphids since initially infecting them over 100 million years ago. Substitution rates average 36 times greater for Buchnera than for their aphid hosts for regions of small-subunit rDNA that are homologous for prokaryotes and eukaryotes. Aphids exhibit 18S rDNA substitution rates that are within the range observed in related insects. In contrast, 16S rDNA evolves about twice as fast in Buchnera as in related free-living bacterial lineages. Nonetheless, the difference between Buchnera and aphids is much greater, suggesting that rates may be generally higher in bacteria. This finding adds to evidence that molecular clocks are only locally rather than universally valid among taxonomic groups. It is consistent with the hypothesis that rates of sequence evolution depend on generation time.     

Time zones: a comparative genetics of circadian clocks

The circadian clock is a widespread cellular mechanism that underlies diverse rhythmic functions in organisms from bacteria and fungi, to plants and animals. Intense genetic analysis during recent years has uncovered many of the components and molecular mechanisms comprising these clocks. Although autoregulatory genetic networks are a consistent feature in the design of all clocks, the weight of evidence favours their independent evolutionary origins in different kingdoms.