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1.
Antiviral drugs, most notably the neuraminidase inhibitors, are an important component of control strategies aimed to prevent or limit any future influenza pandemic. The potential large-scale use of antiviral drugs brings with it the danger of drug resistance evolution. A number of recent studies have shown that the emergence of drug-resistant influenza could undermine the usefulness of antiviral drugs for the control of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. While these studies have provided important insights, the inherently stochastic nature of resistance generation and spread, as well as the potential for ongoing evolution of the resistant strain have not been fully addressed. Here, we study a stochastic model of drug resistance emergence and consecutive evolution of the resistant strain in response to antiviral control during an influenza pandemic. We find that taking into consideration the ongoing evolution of the resistant strain does not increase the probability of resistance emergence; however, it increases the total number of infecteds if a resistant outbreak occurs. Our study further shows that taking stochasticity into account leads to results that can differ from deterministic models. Specifically, we find that rapid and strong control cannot only contain a drug sensitive outbreak, it can also prevent a resistant outbreak from occurring. We find that the best control strategy is early intervention heavily based on prophylaxis at a level that leads to outbreak containment. If containment is not possible, mitigation works best at intermediate levels of antiviral control. Finally, we show that the results are not very sensitive to the way resistance generation is modeled.  相似文献   

2.
Moghadas SM  Bowman CS  Röst G  Wu J 《PloS one》2008,3(3):e1839

Background

The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans.

Methodology/Principal Findings

By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections.  相似文献   

3.

Background

The effectiveness of single-drug antiviral interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality during the next influenza pandemic will be substantially weakened if transmissible strains emerge which are resistant to the stockpiled antiviral drugs. We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains.

Methods and Findings

We used a multistrain stochastic transmission model of influenza to show that the spread of antiviral resistance can be significantly reduced by deploying a small stockpile (1% population coverage) of a secondary drug during the early phase of local epidemics. We considered two strategies for the use of the secondary stockpile: early combination chemotherapy (ECC; individuals are treated with both drugs in combination while both are available); and sequential multidrug chemotherapy (SMC; individuals are treated only with the secondary drug until it is exhausted, then treated with the primary drug). We investigated all potentially important regions of unknown parameter space and found that both ECC and SMC reduced the cumulative attack rate (AR) and the resistant attack rate (RAR) unless the probability of emergence of resistance to the primary drug pA was so low (less than 1 in 10,000) that resistance was unlikely to be a problem or so high (more than 1 in 20) that resistance emerged as soon as primary drug monotherapy began. For example, when the basic reproductive number was 1.8 and 40% of symptomatic individuals were treated with antivirals, AR and RAR were 67% and 38% under monotherapy if p A = 0.01. If the probability of resistance emergence for the secondary drug was also 0.01, then SMC reduced AR and RAR to 57% and 2%. The effectiveness of ECC was similar if combination chemotherapy reduced the probabilities of resistance emergence by at least ten times. We extended our model using travel data between 105 large cities to investigate the robustness of these resistance-limiting strategies at a global scale. We found that as long as populations that were the main source of resistant strains employed these strategies (SMC or ECC), then those same strategies were also effective for populations far from the source even when some intermediate populations failed to control resistance. In essence, through the existence of many wild-type epidemics, the interconnectedness of the global network dampened the international spread of resistant strains.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that the augmentation of existing stockpiles of a single anti-influenza drug with smaller stockpiles of a second drug could be an effective and inexpensive epidemiological hedge against antiviral resistance if either SMC or ECC were used. Choosing between these strategies will require additional empirical studies. Specifically, the choice will depend on the safety of combination therapy and the synergistic effect of one antiviral in suppressing the emergence of resistance to the other antiviral when both are taken in combination.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of this study is to develop a strategy for maximum production of a target product with a simplified model derived from a metabolic reaction network through an example of lysine production. Based on the model, a search for the optimal specific growth rate profile was conducted among the available conditions of batch fermentation based on the derived model, when the total fermentation time was fixed. The optimal specific growth rate was obtained as a boundary control: initially, the specific growth rate was maintained at a maximum value and was subsequently switched to a critical value giving the maximum specific production rate. To make the specific growth rate follow this optimal profile as accurately as possible in batch mode, first, an appropriate initial concentration of leucine was employed in the experiment. Second, the feeding strategy of leucine was further studied. The specific growth rate profile with feeding was closer to the optimal one and the amount of lysine produced at the final stage of fermentation was increased about twofold, compared to that in the batch fermentation. Finally, the strategy was summarized as an algorithm for general use of this method.  相似文献   

5.
A biotechnological application of artificial microRNAs (amiRs) is the generation of plants that are resistant to virus infection. This resistance has proven to be highly effective and sequence specific. However, before these transgenic plants can be deployed in the field, it is important to evaluate the likelihood of the emergence of resistance-breaking mutants. Two issues are of particular interest: (i) whether such mutants can arise in nontransgenic plants that may act as reservoirs and (ii) whether a suboptimal expression level of the transgene, resulting in subinhibitory concentrations of the amiR, would favor the emergence of escape mutants. To address the first issue, we experimentally evolved independent lineages of Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) (family Potyviridae) in fully susceptible wild-type Arabidopsis thaliana plants and then simulated the spillover of the evolving virus to fully resistant A. thaliana transgenic plants. To address the second issue, the evolution phase took place with transgenic plants that expressed the amiR at subinhibitory concentrations. Our results show that TuMV populations replicating in susceptible hosts accumulated resistance-breaking alleles that resulted in the overcoming of the resistance of fully resistant plants. The rate at which resistance was broken was 7 times higher for TuMV populations that experienced subinhibitory concentrations of the antiviral amiR. A molecular characterization of escape alleles showed that they all contained at least one nucleotide substitution in the target sequence, generally a transition of the G-to-A and C-to-U types, with many instances of convergent molecular evolution. To better understand the viral population dynamics taking place within each host, as well as to evaluate relevant population genetic parameters, we performed in silico simulations of the experiments. Together, our results contribute to the rational management of amiR-based antiviral resistance in plants.  相似文献   

6.
The evolutionary responses of infectious pathogens often have ruinous consequences for the control of disease spread in the population. Drug resistance is a well-documented instance that is generally driven by the selective pressure of drugs on both the replication of the pathogen within hosts and its transmission between hosts. Management of drug resistance therefore requires the development of treatment strategies that can impede the emergence and spread of resistance in the population. This study evaluates various treatment strategies for influenza infection as a case study by comparing the long-term epidemiological outcomes predicted by deterministic and stochastic versions of a homogeneously mixing (mean-field) model and those predicted by a heterogeneous model that incorporates spatial pair-wise correlation. We discuss the importance of three major parameters in our evaluation: the basic reproduction number, the population level of treatment, and the degree of clustering as a key parameter determining the structure of heterogeneous interactions. The results show that, as a common feature in all models, high treatment levels during the early stages of disease outset can result in large resistant outbreaks, with the possibility of a second wave of infection appearing in the pair-approximation model. Our simulations demonstrate that, if the basic reproduction number exceeds a threshold value, the population-wide spread of the resistant pathogen emerges more rapidly in the pair-approximation model with significantly lower treatment levels than in the homogeneous models. We tested an antiviral strategy that delays the onset of aggressive treatment for a certain amount of time after the onset of the outbreak. The findings indicate that the overall disease incidence is reduced as the degree of clustering increases, and a longer delay should be considered for implementing the large-scale treatment.  相似文献   

7.
Drug therapies aimed at suppressing the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are highly effective, often reducing the viral load to below the limits of detection for years. Adherence to such antiviral regimens, however, is typically far from ideal. We have previously developed a model that predicts optimal treatment regimens by weighing drug toxicity against CD4+ T-cell counts, including the probability that drug resistance will emerge. We use this model to investigate the influence of adherence on therapy benefit. For a drug with a given half-life, we compare the effects of varying the dose amount and dose interval for different rates of adherence, and compute the optimal dose regimen for adherence between 65% and 95%. Our results suggest that for optimal treatment benefit, drug regimens should be adjusted for poor adherence, usually by increasing the dose amount and leaving the dose interval fixed. We also find that the benefit of therapy can be surprisingly robust to poor adherence, as long as the dose interval and dose amount are chosen accordingly.  相似文献   

8.
The implementation of optimal control strategies involving antiviral treatment and/or isolation measures can reduce significantly the number of clinical cases of influenza. Pandemic-level control measures must be carefully assessed specially in resource-limited situations. A model for the transmission dynamics of influenza is used to evaluate the impact of isolation and/or antiviral drug delivery measures during an influenza pandemic. Five pre-selected control strategies involving antiviral treatment and isolation are tested under the “unlimited” resource assumption followed by an exploration of the impact of these “optimal” policies when resources are limited in the context of a 1918-type influenza pandemic scenario. The implementation of antiviral treatment at the start of a pandemic tends to reduce the magnitude of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an outbreak over an extended window in time. Hence, the controls’ timing and intensity can reduce the pressures placed on the health care infrastructure by a pandemic reducing the stress put on the system during epidemic peaks. The role of isolation strategies is highlighted in this study particularly when access to antiviral resources is limited.  相似文献   

9.
Many zoonotic, novel infectious diseases in humans appear as sporadic infections with spatially and temporally restricted outbreaks, as seen with influenza A(H5N1). Adaptation is often a key factor for successfully establishing sustained human-to-human transmission. Here we use simple mathematical models to describe different adaptation scenarios with particular reference to spatial heterogeneity within the human population. We present analytical expressions for the probability of emergence per introduction, as well as the waiting time to a successful emergence event. Furthermore, we derive general analytical results for the statistical properties of emergence events, including the probability distribution of outbreak sizes. We compare our analytical results with a stochastic model, which has previously been studied computationally. Our results suggest that, for typical connection strengths between communities, spatial heterogeneity has only a weak effect on outbreak size distributions, and on the risk of emergence per introduction. For example, if or larger, any village connected to a large city by just ten commuters a day is, effectively, just a part of the city when considering the chances of emergence and the outbreak size distribution. We present empirical data on commuting patterns and show that the vast majority of communities for which such data are available are at least this well interconnected. For plausible parameter ranges, the effects of spatial heterogeneity are likely to be dominated by the evolutionary biology of host adaptation. We conclude by discussing implications for surveillance and control of emerging infections.  相似文献   

10.
High-dose chemotherapy has long been advocated as a means of controlling drug resistance in infectious diseases but recent empirical studies have begun to challenge this view. We develop a very general framework for modeling and understanding resistance emergence based on principles from evolutionary biology. We use this framework to show how high-dose chemotherapy engenders opposing evolutionary processes involving the mutational input of resistant strains and their release from ecological competition. Whether such therapy provides the best approach for controlling resistance therefore depends on the relative strengths of these processes. These opposing processes typically lead to a unimodal relationship between drug pressure and resistance emergence. As a result, the optimal drug dose lies at either end of the therapeutic window of clinically acceptable concentrations. We illustrate our findings with a simple model that shows how a seemingly minor change in parameter values can alter the outcome from one where high-dose chemotherapy is optimal to one where using the smallest clinically effective dose is best. A review of the available empirical evidence provides broad support for these general conclusions. Our analysis opens up treatment options not currently considered as resistance management strategies, and it also simplifies the experiments required to determine the drug doses which best retard resistance emergence in patients.  相似文献   

11.
Theoretical models of anti-predator escape behaviour suggest that prey may adjust their escape response such that the optimal flight distance is the point at which the costs of staying exceed the costs of fleeing. Anti-predatory decisions should be made based also on consequences for long-term expected fitness, such as the costs of refuge use. For example, in lizards, the maintenance of an optimal body temperature is essential to maximize physiological processes. However, if unfavourable thermal conditions of refuges can decrease the body temperature of lizards, their escape decision should be influenced by refuge conditions. Analyses of the variation in flight distances and emergence latency from a refuge for the lizard Lacerta monticola under two different predation risk levels, and their relationship with the thermal environment, supported these predictions. When risk increased, lizards had longer emergence latencies, and thus costs of refuge use increased (a greater loss of time and body temperature). In the low-risk situation, lizards that were farther from the refuge had longer flight distances, whereas thermal conditions were less important. When risk increased, lizards had longer flight distances when refuges were farther off, but also when the external heating rate and the refuge cooling rate were lower. The results suggest that, in addition to the risk of predation, expected long-term fitness costs of refuges can also affect escape decisions.  相似文献   

12.
A system of differential equations for the control of tumor cells growth in a cycle nonspecific chemotherapy is presented. Spontaneously acquired drug resistance is accounted for, as well as the evolution in time of normal cells. In addition, optimization of conflicting objectives forms the aim of the chemotherapeutic treatment. For general cell growth, some results are given, whereas for the special case of Malthusian (exponential) growth of tumor cells and rather general growth rate for normal cells, the optimal strategy is worked out. The latter, from the clinical standpoint, corresponds to maximum drug concentration throughout the treatment.  相似文献   

13.
Antiviral agents have been hailed to hold considerable promise for the treatment and prevention of emerging viral diseases like H5N1 avian influenza and SARS. However, antiviral drugs are not completely harmless, and the conditions under which individuals are willing to participate in a large-scale antiviral drug treatment program are as yet unknown. We provide population dynamical and game theoretical analyses of large-scale prophylactic antiviral treatment programs. Throughout we compare the antiviral control strategy that is optimal from the public health perspective with the control strategy that would evolve if individuals make their own, rational decisions. To this end we investigate the conditions under which a large-scale antiviral control program can prevent an epidemic, and we analyze at what point in an unfolding epidemic the risk of infection starts to outweigh the cost of antiviral treatment. This enables investigation of how the optimal control strategy is moulded by the efficacy of antiviral drugs, the risk of mortality by antiviral prophylaxis, and the transmissibility of the pathogen. Our analyses show that there can be a strong incentive for an individual to take less antiviral drugs than is optimal from the public health perspective. In particular, when public health asks for early and aggressive control to prevent or curb an emerging pathogen, for the individual antiviral drug treatment is attractive only when the risk of infection has become non-negligible. It is even possible that from a public health perspective a situation in which everybody takes antiviral drugs is optimal, while the process of individual choice leads to a situation where nobody is willing to take antiviral drugs.  相似文献   

14.
Influenza is one of the main plagues worldwide. The statistical likelihood of a new pandemic outbreak, together with the alarming emergence of influenza virus strains that are resistant to available antiviral medications, highlights the need for new antiviral drugs. Lactoferrin, a 80 kDa bi-globular iron-binding glycoprotein, is a pleiotropic factor with potent antimicrobial and immunomodulatory activities. Although the antiviral effect of lactoferrin is one of its major biological functions, the mechanism of action is still under debate. In this research, we have analyzed the effect of bovine lactoferrin (bLf) on Influenza A virus infection in vitro. Our results showed that (i) Influenza virus infected cells died as a result of apoptosis, (ii) bLf treatment inhibited programmed cell death by interfering with function of caspase 3, a major virus-induced apoptosis effector, and (iii) bLf efficiently blocked nuclear export of viral ribonucleoproteins so preventing viral assembly. These results provide further insights on the antiviral activity of bLf and suggest novel strategies for treatment of Influenza virus infection.  相似文献   

15.
Life history responses depend on timing of cannibalism in a damselfly   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
1. Cannibalism has often been suggested as an important mechanism to reach the necessary developmental stage and size before a critical time horizon is reached, but this role has been largely unexplored. We studied effects of cannibalism on the life history of the damselfly Lestes viridis under combinations of a time constraint (by manipulating the perceived time available in the growth season) and a biotic constraint (density). 2. Larvae had a faster development and growth rate when reared at high time stress (late photoperiod). They also had a higher growth rate and mass at emergence when cannibalism occurred (density 2 and 4). Cannibalism occurred earlier at higher density. Accelerated life history responses (faster development and growth rate) and a higher mass at emergence were dependent upon the timing of cannibalism. Responses were more pronounced or only present if cannibalism occurred early in the larval period. 3. Our data suggest that cannibalism may not only act as a lifeboat mechanism by enabling cannibals to survive detrimental ecological conditions, but may also act as a compensatory mechanism to keep life history variables near‐optimal at life history transitions, even under sub‐optimal conditions.  相似文献   

16.
BackgroundThe continued advance of antibiotic resistance threatens the treatment and control of many infectious diseases. This is exemplified by the largest global outbreak of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis (TB) identified in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, in 2005 that continues today. It is unclear whether the emergence of XDR-TB in KwaZulu-Natal was due to recent inadequacies in TB control in conjunction with HIV or other factors. Understanding the origins of drug resistance in this fatal outbreak of XDR will inform the control and prevention of drug-resistant TB in other settings. In this study, we used whole genome sequencing and dating analysis to determine if XDR-TB had emerged recently or had ancient antecedents.ConclusionsIn the first whole genome-based analysis of the emergence of drug resistance among clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis, we show that the ancestral precursor of the LAM4 XDR outbreak strain in Tugela Ferry gained mutations to first-line drugs at the beginning of the antibiotic era. Subsequent accumulation of stepwise resistance mutations, occurring over decades and prior to the explosion of HIV in this region, yielded MDR and XDR, permitting the emergence of compensatory mutations. Our results suggest that drug-resistant strains circulating today reflect not only vulnerabilities of current TB control efforts but also those that date back 50 y. In drug-resistant TB, isoniazid resistance was overwhelmingly the initial resistance mutation to be acquired, which would not be detected by current rapid molecular diagnostics employed in South Africa that assess only rifampicin resistance.  相似文献   

17.
紫外处理梨小食心虫卵对暗黑赤眼蜂寄生和羽化的影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
【目的】研究暗黑赤眼蜂Trichogramma pintoi Voegele对经紫外线照射处理的梨小食心虫 Grapholita molesta (Busck)卵的寄生效果, 确定处理寄主卵的最佳紫外强度和处理时间, 为利用小卵大量饲养赤眼蜂时寄主卵的处理和保存提供方法。【方法】初羽化12 h内的暗黑赤眼蜂分别寄生经不同强度紫外灯处理不同时间的梨小食心虫卵, 观察其寄生状况, 并统计寄生率和羽化率, 与对未经紫外处理的梨小食心虫卵的寄生率和羽化率作比较。【结果】暗黑赤眼蜂对经紫外照射的梨小食心虫卵的寄生率明显下降, 且随着紫外光强度的增强和紫外处理时间的延长, 影响强度增大。紫外处理梨小食心虫卵后, 暗黑赤眼蜂羽化率变化不大, 用15W紫外灯1-2 h或30W紫外灯照射1 h后, 暗黑赤眼蜂羽化率有所提高, 均在80%以上, 但在紫外照射3 h后, 羽化率明显下降。【结论】处理梨小食心虫卵时的紫外光强度及紫外处理时间对暗黑赤眼蜂寄生梨小食心虫卵的寄生效果均有一定的影响。实验室利用梨小食心虫卵大量繁殖暗黑赤眼蜂时, 宜采用15W 1 h紫外照射, 既能杀死寄主卵的胚胎, 又不会对暗黑赤眼蜂的寄生效果产生明显的不利影响。  相似文献   

18.
A M Haywood  B P Boyer 《Biochemistry》1982,21(24):6041-6046
The conditions that optimize Sendai virus membrane fusion with liposomes have been studied. No fusion occurs in the absence of ganglioside receptors. Maximum fusion occurs when the molar ratio of ganglioside GD1a to phospholipid is 0.02 or greater. The amount of fusion at 37 degrees C increases with time up to at least 6.5 h. The rate of fusion increases from the lowest temperature tested, 10 degrees C, to 40 degrees C. Above 43 degrees C the amount of fusion decreases because of thermal inactivation of the viral proteins. There is a broad pH maximum between pH 7.5 and pH 9.0. At both ends of the pH range the amount of fusion increases and exceeds that found in the physiologic pH range. Neither ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid nor Ca2+ changes the amount of membrane fusion. The optimal conditions for membrane fusion of Sendai virus membranes with liposomes are the same as the optimal conditions for fusion with host cells and with red blood cells. Since the liposomes contain no proteins, the optimal conditions for Sendai virus membrane fusion must be determined by the viral proteins and be mostly independent of the nature or presence of the host proteins.  相似文献   

19.
Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.  相似文献   

20.
Current HIV therapy, although highly effective, may cause very serious side effects, making adherence to the prescribed regimen difficult. Mathematical modeling may be used to evaluate alternative treatment regimens by weighing the positive results of treatment, such as higher levels of helper T cells, against the negative consequences, such as side effects and the possibility of resistance mutations. Although estimating the weights assigned to these factors is difficult, current clinical practice offers insight by defining situations in which therapy is considered “worthwhile”. We therefore use clinical practice, along with the probability that a drug-resistant mutation is present at the start of therapy, to suggest methods of rationally estimating these weights. In our underlying model, we use ordinary differential equations to describe the time course of in-host HIV infection, and include populations of both activated CD4+ T cells and CD8+ T cells. We then determine the best possible treatment regimen, assuming that the effectiveness of the drug can be continually adjusted, and the best practical treatment regimen, evaluating all patterns of a block of days “on” therapy followed by a block of days “off” therapy. We find that when the tolerance for drug-resistant mutations is low, high drug concentrations which maintain low infected cell populations are optimal. In contrast, if the tolerance for drug-resistant mutations is fairly high, the optimal treatment involves periods of reduced drug exposure which consequently boost the immune response through increased antigen exposure. We elucidate the dependence of the optimal treatment regimen on the pharmacokinetic parameters of specific antiviral agents.  相似文献   

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