昆虫种群动态模拟模型

昆虫是动物界中最大的类群,与人类有着密切的利害关系。对昆虫的数量预测与符合经济和生态规律的管理,一直都被国内外列入重点研究课题。种群动态模拟是害虫管理中重要的基础工作。近十年来,关于昆虫种群动态模型的理论和实验研究进展迅速。现分别从单种种群和多种种群两个方面对国内外近些年来昆虫种群动态模拟模型的研究进展进行了概括和总结。单种种群从两个方面阐述:一是最基本的种群动态模拟模型Log istic方程的研究成果,包括方程的修正、参数的拟合与最优捕获策略等;另一个方面是对种群动态模拟常用的矩阵模型的概述,主要介绍不等期年龄组、矩阵维数的变化、矩阵维数与历期的关系、个体之间的发育差异以及发育速率差异等等对昆虫种群动态模型的影响。多种群主要从建模和模型应用两个部分对国内外研究成果进行综述。最后,对种群动态模拟模型研究的发展方向做了深入地讨论,即在原有的数据采集工作的基础上,使用面向对象程序设计语言,把各种要素包括各种物种及各种环境条件抽象成类,用消息传递来表示昆虫种群内个体与个体、昆虫种群与环境之间的相互作用,再结合先进的数学算法,建立一个直观的、操作简单的昆虫种群动态模型库,使模型结构与现实世界有最大的相似性。这样就可以实现昆虫种群动态的可视化、立体化、实时化和精确化的监测及预测。     

昆虫种群的一类时空动态模型研究

昆虫种群的时空动态包括种群的数量变化和空间分布变化.根据密度制约性原理, F推导出描述昆虫种群时空动态的非线性偏微分方程模型.该模型由扩散、迁移、出生及死亡等成分组成.建立了模型的差分解法,也给出模型参数的拟合方法.模型的初始分布确定为二项分布,Poisson分布,以及负二项分布.给出产生3种空间分布的计算方法.给定初始分布类型及参数,由各算法组装的计算机模型可得到初始分布,田间各点各时刻的昆虫数量 ,以及该时刻的空间分布类型和聚集性.     

蚜虫种群时空分布动态模型

种群空间格局是昆虫种群的重要属性,是为害虫防治提供动态信息的重要前提。关于种群空间格局的时空动态,前人曾建立了富立叶模型和有阻尼自由震荡模型,但忽略了生境资源和空间资源的限制,不能很好地描述昆虫种群在自然界摆布状况的动态行为。因此,在前人研究的基础上,根据蚜虫在自然界的聚集扩散行为逐步建立了描述蚜虫种群聚集扩散规律的变幅、变周期时空分布动态模型,即:y=Ae-nt[sin(w0emtt+φ)+b]+c,并应用该模型对麦长管蚜(Sitobion avenae Fabricius)、麦二叉蚜(Schizaphis graminum Rondani)、禾缢管蚜(Rhopalosiphum padi Linnaeus)和玉米蚜(Rhopalosiphum maidis Fitch)的实验数据进行了拟合。结果表明,麦蚜种群和玉米蚜种群呈现出不同的规律,3种麦蚜均为减幅减周期的变化趋势,玉米蚜则表现为减幅增周期的变化趋势。此外,该模型的拟合效果较好(R20.942,SSE2.6)、生物意义明确,不仅可用于描述蚜虫以及蚜虫以外的其他昆虫和螨类种群的时空动态,还可准确描述不同年龄阶段和不同空间位置上种群的动态,具有普遍适用性。应用该模型考察不同种蚜虫在同一作物上的竞争情况和蚜虫与其天敌的空间分布动态,可为害虫的综合防治奠定基础;对不同小麦抗性品种上同一种蚜虫的聚集扩散行为进行刻画、分析,还可为小麦的抗性育种提供参考依据。     

昆虫种群动态的空间分析方法探讨

近年来,随着地理信息系统、卫星遥感、航空数字化摄像。全球定位系统以及虚拟可视化等空间技术的迅速发展,昆虫种群的空间动态也已经引起了国内外学者和生产应用部门的高度重视［１］。然而,在考虑生态系统的空间问题时,区别于传统的研究时间尺度的经验和方法,某些涉及空间分析的概念、方法和技术也必须受到足够的关注。本文将就分析昆虫空间动态问题时,必须考虑的一些因素、方法和可能存在的问题作一探讨,以供同行商榷。１空间异质性研究昆虫种群的空间动态,首先需要考虑的就是空间异质性问题。昆虫的发生与其所生存的外部环境密切…     

二点叶蝉自然种群的时空动态

选择受密度影响较小的负二项分布K值 ,描述玉米上二点叶蝉自然种群在 3个海拔高度上的空间格局及时序动态。在玉米生育期间 ,二点叶蝉种群即可作聚集分布亦可作均匀分布。 4月中下旬 ,二点叶蝉种群呈均匀分布 (K <0 ) ;5月份 ,呈聚集分布 (K >0 ) ;6月上中旬呈均匀分布 (K <0 ) ;6月下旬至 7月上旬呈聚集分布 (K >0 ) ,表现为扩散→聚集→再扩散→再聚集的总趋势。K值亦表明 ,5月份高海拔聚集强度最高 ,6月下旬至 7月上旬则低海拔的聚集强度最高。根据Taylor的幂函数法和Iwao的M -X回归方程的系数 ,高、中海拔的聚集强度大于低海拔     

昆虫种群动态模拟方法的一点改进──三化螟种群动态模拟模型的研究

以Ｒｕｅｓｉｎｋ（１９７６）的模型为基础,根据昆虫个体一般不同步地进入下一发育阶段的状况,当昆虫各虫态发育到完成该虫态发育所需要的最低年龄级数后,假定各年龄级的昆虫种群均以一定的概率分布函数值进入下一个发育阶段,同时根据有效积温向前推进。据此,对昆虫种群动态模拟方法作了一点改进。该方法综合了已有的种群模型的优点,因而较Ｒｕｅｓｉｎｋ（１９７６）和ＣｈｉＨｓｉｎ等（１９８５）提出的方法更真实地反映了昆虫种群动态的变化规律。根据三化螟自然种群生命表的资料,分析和确定逐日存活率、逐日发育率和逐日生殖率,对三化螟种群进行逐日动态模拟和预测,同时引入环境因素对种群的控制作用,研究不同环境条件下的种群动态,经验证,模型基本能够反映田间三化螟的发生规律。     

昆虫种群动态非线性建模理论与应用

本文以非线性动力学为基础,对自然界中昆虫种群动态的复杂性、不确定性进行了建模方法的探讨,在讨论了昆虫种群动态的混沌与非线性时间序列预测方法的前提下,以山东省玉米螟等种群动态资料进行了实例分析。     

基于GIS的种群动态的时空分析与模拟研究的方法进展

综合实例从时空分析,时空模拟和基于Web的GIS研究三方面介绍了种群动态的时空分析与模拟研究的最新进展和应用方法,并对未来该领域的研究重点和应用前景作了展望。     

A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system

We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.     

一种模拟昆虫种群动态的改进的变维矩阵模型

提出了一种模拟昆虫种群动态的改进的变维矩阵模型,该模型以发有历期为维数,采用分解与合成的方法变维,并考虑了个体间的发育差异。经模拟检验,模型模拟结果略优于徐汝梅等（1981）变维矩阵模型的结果。     

A continuous, age-structured insect population model

 A continuous age-structured model of cannibalistic insect populations is constructed and analyzed. The model is a continuous analog of the model used in the recent work of Costantino et al. in which discrete modeling, mathematical analysis, statistical techniques, and laboratory experiments were used to demonstrate the presence of nonlinear dynamics, including chaos, in laboratory Tribolium cultures. A special case of the continuous model (no larva-on-egg cannibalism) is analyzed and the results are compared to the analogous special case of the discrete model. Received: 6 January 1999     

A population and energy model of a forest insect outbreak

A model is proposed for the dynamics of a forest insect population with account of food consumption and the response of plants to damage. Equations are derived relating the propagation coefficient, female mass, pest conversion efficacy, and plant reaction. Outbreak scenarios are analyzed as dependent on steady-state female weight. The results are compared with the data of observations in nature.     

INSTAR,a discrete event model for simulating zooplankton population dynamics

In this paper we discuss the basic principles of discrete event, individual oriented, data based modelling in ecology, and we present an application of this modelling strategy. The strategy is contrasted with some more conventional modelling strategies with respect to its purpose, its basic units and its heuristic properties.INSTAR applies this modelling strategy to the simulation of the fluctuations of the population structure and density of microcrustaceans through the year. The model encompasses one microcrustacean species at a time, and its interface with the rest of the ecosystem; it has been applied to several Cladocera and Copepoda species in a shallow eutrophic lake in the Netherlands (Vijverberg & Richter 1982a, b). Possibilities for extending the model are discussed.     

A population dynamics model for annual plants subject to inbreeding depression

Summary We present a population dynamics model for annual plants subject to density dependent competition and a decline in mean individual fitness with inbreeding. An analysis of this model provides three distinct sets of parameter values that define the relative influence of inbreeding depression and density on population growth. First, a population with a relatively high finite rate of increase and a relatively small environmental carrying capacity can persist in spite of low levels of inbreeding depression. These types of population may occur during a bottleneck event that is caused by pure predation (or collecting) pressure rather than loss of habitat. Second, there can exist a minimum viable population size when the finite rate of increase is relatively low and the population is also affected by density: the growth or decline of the population will depend on the initial population size. Third, when the population is small enough to be simultaneously effected by density and by inbreeding depression, there can be no viable population.     

A spatiotemporal stochastic process model for species spread

We use a spatiotemporal Markov process to model the spread of an ecological population through its environment over time. Available habitat is divided into sites, and a parametric function of spatial variables is used to model the probability that one site is colonized from another. This allows us both to make predictions about the future spread of a population, and to determine which are the important factors governing colonizations. The model evolves in discrete time, allowing the population distribution to change seasonally in accordance with breeding patterns. Discrete time formulations are natural for ecological populations, but are problematic due to difficulties of fitting and predicting over irregular time intervals. The model described here can accommodate years of missing data and can therefore fit and predict at irregular intervals. Two methods of approximating the likelihood are described and applied to ornithological survey data for the woodlark, Lullula arborea, from Thetford Forest in the U.K.     

A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system

We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.     

Analysis of changes of insect-plant ratio-improvement of key-factor analysis for evaluating bottom-up effects in insect population dynamics

A revised key-factor analysis was presented for analyzing the temporal changes in the ratio of insect absolute number to plant resource. Ten data sets for 5 insect species were then analyzed. In this key-factor analysis, the key factor is defined as the factor contributing highly to between-year variation inR _r , the log rate of the inter-year change of the insect-plant ratio. The yearly change of plant resource was handled as a separate factor, expressed byr _pl , log ratio of plant resource in yearn to plant resource in yearn+1. The following was revealed: 1) In 7 of the 10 data sets examined,r _pl influenced variations ofR _r ; in particular in 3 casesr _pl was the main key factor. 2) Generation-to-generation fluctuations of absolute insect densities showed density dependence in 4 cases, while those of insect-plant ratios, in 8 cases. 3) The Royama model or a linear model, explained well the relationship between log insect-plant ratio (X _r ) andR _r and the relationship betweenX _r and log yearly change rate of absolute insect density (R _abs ). However, in the 7 cases in whichr _pl was a critical factor for variations ofR _r , with, increase ofX _r ,R _r showed a steeper, decrease around the equilibrium point (the point for whichR _r is 0) thanR _abs . This occurred becauser _pl tended to be negatively correlated withX _r . Consequently, in two casesX _r fluctuated cyclicly or chaotically although without the changes in plant resource, fluctuations ofX _r would be damped oscillations approaching equilibrium.     

A population balance model for fish population dynamics

A population balance model of fish population dynamics for batch systems was developed. A growth rate expression was introduced and coupled with the population balance. Solutions of the model provide predictions of such fish size distribution characteristics as average size, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. A growth diffusivity mechanism was found to be inapplicable to systems where a terminal size is reached. A study of the two parameter growth rate expression was conducted, illustrating that conditions conducive to high growth rates also resulted in broadening of size distributions. The model was compared to data found in the literature to demonstrate its predictive capabilities.