Eco-evolutionary feedbacks,adaptive dynamics and evolutionary rescue theory

Adaptive dynamics theory has been devised to account for feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. Doing so opens new dimensions to and raises new challenges about evolutionary rescue. Adaptive dynamics theory predicts that successive trait substitutions driven by eco-evolutionary feedbacks can gradually erode population size or growth rate, thus potentially raising the extinction risk. Even a single trait substitution can suffice to degrade population viability drastically at once and cause ‘evolutionary suicide’. In a changing environment, a population may track a viable evolutionary attractor that leads to evolutionary suicide, a phenomenon called ‘evolutionary trapping’. Evolutionary trapping and suicide are commonly observed in adaptive dynamics models in which the smooth variation of traits causes catastrophic changes in ecological state. In the face of trapping and suicide, evolutionary rescue requires that the population overcome evolutionary threats generated by the adaptive process itself. Evolutionary repellors play an important role in determining how variation in environmental conditions correlates with the occurrence of evolutionary trapping and suicide, and what evolutionary pathways rescue may follow. In contrast with standard predictions of evolutionary rescue theory, low genetic variation may attenuate the threat of evolutionary suicide and small population sizes may facilitate escape from evolutionary traps.     

Evolutionary Dynamics of Seed Size and Seedling Competitive Ability

We present a model for the evolutionary dynamics of seed size when there is a trade-off between seed size and seed number, and seedlings from large seeds are better competitors and have a higher precompetitive survival than seedlings from small seeds. We find that strong competitive asymmetry, high resource levels, and intermediate harshness of the precompetitive environment favor coexistence of plants with different seed sizes. If the evolution of seed size is mutation-limited and single mutations have only a small phenotypic effect, then an initially monomorphic population reaches the final evolutionarily stable polymorphic state through one or more discrete evolutionary branching events. At each such branching event, a given lineage already present in the population divides into two phenotypically diverging daughter lines, each with its own seed size. If the precompetitive survival of seeds and seedlings is high for small and large seeds alike, however, evolutionary branching may be followed by the extinction of one or more lineages. Various results presented here are model-independent and point the way to a more general evolutionary bifurcation theory describing how the number and stability properties of evolutionary equilibria may change as a consequence of changes in model parameters.     

Population structure inhibits evolutionary diversification under competition for resources

A model is presented that explores how population structure affects the evolutionary outcome of ecological competition for resources. The model assumes that competition for resources occurs within groups of a finite number of individuals (interaction groups), and that limited dispersal of individuals between groups (according to Wright's island model of population structure) results in genetic structuring of the population. It is found that both finite-sized interaction groups and limited dispersal can have substantial effects on the evolution of resource exploitation strategies as compared to models with a single, infinitely large, well-mixed interaction group. Both effects, in general, tend to select for less aggressive competitive strategies. Moreover, both effects also tend to reduce the likelihood of the evolutionary diversification of resource exploitation strategies that often occurs in models of resource competition with infinite populations. The results are discussed in the context of theories of the evolutionary diversification of resource exploitation strategies and speciation.     

Eco-evolutionary dynamics

Evolutionary ecologists and population biologists have recently considered that ecological and evolutionary changes are intimately linked and can occur on the same time-scale. Recent theoretical developments have shown how the feedback between ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be linked, and there are now empirical demonstrations showing that ecological change can lead to rapid evolutionary change. We also have evidence that microevolutionary change can leave an ecological signature. We are at a stage where the integration of ecology and evolution is a necessary step towards major advances in our understanding of the processes that shape and maintain biodiversity. This special feature about ‘eco-evolutionary dynamics’ brings together biologists from empirical and theoretical backgrounds to bridge the gap between ecology and evolution and provide a series of contributions aimed at quantifying the interactions between these fundamental processes.     

A newly discovered role of evolution in previously published consumer–resource dynamics

Consumer–resource interactions are fundamental components of ecological communities. Classic features of consumer–resource models are that temporal dynamics are often cyclic, with a ¼‐period lag between resource and consumer population peaks. However, there are few published empirical examples of this pattern. Here, we show that many published examples of consumer–resource cycling show instead patterns indicating eco‐evolutionary dynamics. When prey evolve along a trade‐off between defence and competitive ability, two‐species consumer–resource cycles become longer and antiphase (half‐period lag, so consumer maxima coincide with minima of the resource species). Using stringent criteria, we identified 21 two‐species consumer–resource time series, published between 1934 and 1997, suitable to investigate for eco‐evolutionary dynamics. We developed a statistical method to probe for a transition from classic to eco‐evolutionary cycles, and find evidence for eco‐evolutionary type cycles in about half of the studies. We show that rapid prey evolution is the most likely explanation for the observed patterns.     

Exploring context dependency in eco‐evolutionary patterns with the stick insect Timema cristinae

Rapid evolution can influence the ecology of populations, communities, and ecosystems, but the importance of evolution for ecological dynamics remains unclear, largely because the contexts in which evolution is powerful are poorly resolved. Here, we carry out a large observational study to test hypotheses about context dependency of eco‐evolutionary patterns previously identified on the stick insect Timema cristinae. Experiments and observations conducted in 2011 and 2012 documented predator‐mediated negative effects of camouflage maladaptation (i.e., evolutionary dynamics) on: (a) T. cristinae abundance and, (b) species richness and abundance of other arthropods. Here we show that camouflage maladaptation does not correlate with T. cristinae abundance and, instead, is associated with increased abundance and species richness of cohabitating arthropods. We furthermore find that plants with high levels of Timema maladaptation tend to have higher foliar nitrogen, that is, higher nutritional value, and more positive mass‐abundance slopes in the coexisting arthropod communities. We propose explanations for the observed contrasting results, such as negative density‐ and frequency‐dependent selection, feedbacks between herbivore abundance and plant nutritional quality, and common effects of predation pressure on selection and prey abundance. Our results demonstrate the utility of observational studies to assess the context dependency of eco‐evolutionary dynamics patterns and provide testable hypotheses for future work.     

Evolution of complex dynamics in spatially structured populations

Dynamics of populations depend on demographic parameters which may change during evolution. In simple ecological models given by one-dimensional difference equations, the evolution of demographic parameters generally leads to equilibrium population dynamics. Here we show that this is not true in spatially structured ecological models. Using a multi-patch metapopulation model, we study the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypes that differ both in their response to local crowding, i.e. in their competitive behaviour within a habitat, and in their rate of dispersal between habitats. Our simulation results show that evolution can favour phenotypes that have the intrinsic potential for very complex dynamics provided that the environment is spatially structured and temporally variable. These phenotypes owe their evolutionary persistence to their large dispersal rates. They typically coexist with phenotypes that have low dispersal rates and that exhibit equilibrium dynamics when alone. This coexistence is brought about through the phenomenon of evolutionary branching, during which an initially uniform population splits into the two phenotypic classes.     

Impact of temperature shifts on the joint evolution of seed dormancy and size

Seed dormancy and size are two important life‐history traits that interplay as adaptation to varying environmental settings. As evolution of both traits involves correlated selective pressures, it is of interest to comparatively investigate the evolution of the two traits jointly as well as independently. We explore evolutionary trajectories of seed dormancy and size using adaptive dynamics in scenarios of deterministic or stochastic temperature variations. Ecological dynamics usually result in unbalanced population structures, and temperature shifts or fluctuations of high magnitude give rise to more balanced ecological structures. When only seed dormancy evolves, it is counter‐selected and temperature shifts hasten this evolution. Evolution of seed size results in the fixation of a given strategy and evolved seed size decreases when seed dormancy is lowered. When coevolution is allowed, evolutionary variations are reduced while the speed of evolution becomes faster given temperature shifts. Such coevolution scenarios systematically result in reduced seed dormancy and size and similar unbalanced population structures. We discuss how this may be linked to the system stability. Dormancy is counter‐selected because population dynamics lead to stable equilibrium, while small seeds are selected as the outcome of size‐number trade‐offs. Our results suggest that unlike random temperature variation between generations, temperature shifts with high magnitude can considerably alter population structures and accelerate life‐history evolution. This study increases our understanding of plant evolution and persistence in the context of climate changes.     

The effects of asymmetric competition on the life history of Trinidadian guppies

The effects of asymmetric interactions on population dynamics has been widely investigated, but there has been little work aimed at understanding how life history parameters like generation time, life expectancy and the variance in lifetime reproductive success are impacted by different types of competition. We develop a new framework for incorporating trait‐mediated density‐dependence into size‐structured models and use Trinidadian guppies to show how different types of competitive interactions impact life history parameters. Our results show the degree of symmetry in competitive interactions can have dramatic effects on the speed of the life history. For some vital rates, shifting the competitive superiority from small to large individuals resulted in a doubling of the generation time. Such large influences of competitive symmetry on the timescale of demographic processes, and hence evolution, highlights the interwoven nature of ecological and evolutionary processes and the importance of density‐dependence in understanding eco‐evolutionary dynamics.     

Toward a conceptual synthesis for climate change responses

Aim To identify hypotheses for how climate change affects long‐term population persistence that can be used as a framework for future syntheses of ecological responses to climate change. Location Global. Methods We surveyed ecological and evolutionary concepts related to how a changing climate might alter population persistence. We organized established concepts into a two‐stage framework that relates abiotic change to population persistence via changes in the rates or outcomes of ecological and evolutionary processes. We surveyed reviews of climate change responses, and evaluated patterns in light of our conceptual framework. Results We classified hypotheses for population responses to climate change as one of two types: (1) hypotheses that relate rates of ecological and evolutionary processes (plasticity, dispersal, population growth and evolution) to abiotic change, and (2) hypotheses that relate changes in these processes to four fundamental population‐level responses (colonization, acclimatization, adaptation or extinction). We found that a disproportionate emphasis on response in the climate change literature is difficult to reconcile with ecological and evolutionary theories that emphasize processes. We discuss a set of 24 hypotheses that represent gaps in the literature that limit our ability determine whether observed climate change responses are sufficient to facilitate persistence through future climate change. Main conclusions Though theory relates environmental change to fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes and population‐level responses, clear hypotheses based on theory have not been systematically formulated and tested in the context of climate change. Stronger links between basic theory and observed impacts of climate change are required to assess which responses are common, likely or able to facilitate population persistence despite ongoing environmental change. We anticipate that a hypothesis‐testing framework will reveal that indirect effects of climate change responses are more pervasive than previously thought and related to a few general processes, even though the patterns they create are incredibly diverse.     

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.     

Pollination ecology and inbreeding depression control individual flowering phenologies and mixed mating

We analyze evolution of individual flowering phenologies by combining an ecological model of pollinator behavior with a genetic model of inbreeding depression for plant viability. The flowering phenology of a plant genotype determines its expected daily floral display which, together with pollinator behavior, governs the population rate of geitonogamous selfing (fertilization among flowers on the same plant). Pollinators select plant phenologies in two ways: they are more likely to visit plants displaying more flowers per day, and they influence geitonogamous selfing and consequent inbreeding depression via their abundance, foraging behavior, and pollen carry‐over among flowers on a plant. Our model predicts two types of equilibria at stable intermediate selfing rates for a wide range of pollinator behaviors and pollen transfer parameters. Edge equilibria occur at maximal or minimal selfing rates and are constrained by pollinators. Internal equilibria occur between edge equilibria and are determined by a trade‐off between pollinator attraction to large floral displays and avoidance of inbreeding depression due to selfing. We conclude that unavoidable geitonogamous selfing generated by pollinator behavior can contribute to the common occurrence of stable mixed mating in plants.     

Philip Grime's fourth corner: are there plant species adapted to high disturbance and low productivity?

Grime's CSR species life‐strategy theory (competition–stress–ruderality) provides a conceptual framework to classify species into competitive (growing under high productivity, low disturbance), stress‐tolerant (low productivity, low disturbance) and ruderal (high productivity, high disturbance). Importantly, this classification is based on the assumption that the niche space of disturbance and productivity is filled unevenly: while in productive habitats species can adapt to different disturbance regimes, species of low‐productivity and disturbed habitats do not exist, resulting in a triangular distribution of species optima along axes of disturbance and productivity. This assumption has often been criticised, but it has not yet been put under a rigorous test. Here we use existing data on niche positions of central European plant species to test this hypothesis, namely its prediction that species adapted to jointly stressed (low‐productive) and disturbed habitats do not exist. We use Ellenberg indicator values and newly developed indicator values for disturbance as proxies of species positions in the space of productivity and disturbance. We found that positions of species optima along the gradients of productivity and disturbance severity are not independent of each other, with very few species adapted to low‐productive and severely disturbed habitats. In contrast, there is no relationship between productivity and disturbance frequency; a number of species occur in low‐productive and frequently disturbed habitats. The relationship between productivity and disturbance severity can be either due to tradeoffs between life history traits responsible for response to disturbance and productivity (as originally assumed by Grime) or due to historical rarity of severely disturbed habitats in unproductive conditions and consequent absence of evolution of species adapted to them. Our data are based on one specific flora, shaped by glaciations and early introduction of agriculture, but the question of what causes this pattern can be resolved by future analyses of floras with different evolutionary and ecological histories.     

Advantage of storage in a fluctuating environment

We will elaborate the evolutionary course of an ecosystem consisting of a population in a chemostat environment with periodically fluctuating nutrient supply. The organisms that make up the population consist of structural biomass and energy storage compartments. In a constant chemostat environment a species without energy storage always out-competes a species with energy reserves. This hinders evolution of species with storage from those without storage. Using the adaptive dynamics approach for non-equilibrium ecological systems we will show that in a fluctuating environment there are multiple stable evolutionary singular strategies (ss's): one for a species without, and one for a species with energy storage. The evolutionary end-point depends on the initial evolutionary state. We will formulate the invasion fitness in terms of Floquet multipliers for the oscillating non-autonomous system. Bifurcation theory is used to study points where due to evolutionary development by mutational steps, the long-term dynamics of the ecological system changes qualitatively. To that end, at the ecological time scale, the trait value at which invasion of a mutant into a resident population becomes possible can be calculated using numerical bifurcation analysis where the trait is used as the free parameter, because it is just a bifurcation point. In a constant environment there is a unique stable equilibrium for one species following the "competitive exclusion" principle. In contrast, due to the oscillatory dynamics on the ecological time scale two species may coexist. That is, non-equilibrium dynamics enhances biodiversity. However, we will show that this coexistence is not stable on the evolutionary time scale and always one single species survives.     

Cannibalism prevents evolutionary suicide of ontogenetic omnivores in life‐history intraguild predation systems

The majority of animal species are ontogenetic omnivores, that is, individuals of these species change or expand their diet during life. If small ontogenetic omnivores compete for a shared resource with their future prey, ecological persistence of ontogenetic omnivores can be hindered, although predation by large omnivores facilitates persistence. The coupling of developmental processes between different life stages might lead to a trade‐off between competition early in life and predation later in life, especially for ontogenetic omnivores that lack metamorphosis. By using bioenergetic modeling, we study how such an ontogenetic trade‐off affects ecological and evolutionary dynamics of ontogenetic omnivores. We find that selection toward increasing specialization of one life stage leads to evolutionary suicide of noncannibalistic ontogenetic omnivores, because it leads to a shift toward an alternative community state. Ontogenetic omnivores fail to re‐invade this new state due to the maladaptiveness of the other life stage. Cannibalism stabilizes selection on the ontogenetic trade‐off, prevents evolutionary suicide of ontogenetic omnivores, and promotes coexistence of omnivores with their prey. We outline how ecological and evolutionary persistence of ontogenetic omnivores depends on the type of diet change, cannibalism, and competitive hierarchy between omnivores and their prey.     

Evolutionary dynamics and strong Allee effects

We describe the dynamics of an evolutionary model for a population subject to a strong Allee effect. The model assumes that the carrying capacity k(u), inherent growth rate r(u), and Allee threshold a(u) are functions of a mean phenotypic trait u subject to evolution. The model is a plane autonomous system that describes the coupled population and mean trait dynamics. We show bounded orbits equilibrate and that the Allee basin shrinks (and can even disappear) as a result of evolution. We also show that stable non-extinction equilibria occur at the local maxima of k(u) and that stable extinction equilibria occur at local minima of r(u). We give examples that illustrate these results and demonstrate other consequences of an Allee threshold in an evolutionary setting. These include the existence of multiple evolutionarily stable, non-extinction equilibria, and the possibility of evolving to a non-evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) trait from an initial trait near an ESS.     

Demography can favour female-advantageous alleles

When female fecundity is relatively independent of male abundance, while male reproduction is proportional to female abundance, females have a larger effect on population dynamics than males (i.e. female demographic dominance). This population dynamic phenomenon might not appear to influence evolution, because male and female genomes still contribute equally much to the next generation. However, here we examine two evolutionary scenarios to provide a proof of principle that spatial structure can make female demographic dominance matter. Our two simulation models combine dispersal evolution with local adaptation subjected to intralocus sexual conflict and environmentally driven sex ratio biases, respectively. Both models have equilibria where one environment (without being intrinsically poorer) has so few reproductive females that trait evolution becomes disproportionately determined by those environments where females survive better (intralocus sexual conflict model), or where daughters are overproduced (environmental sex determination model). Surprisingly, however, the two facts that selection favours alleles that benefit females, and population growth is improved when female fitness is high, together do not imply that all measures of population performance are improved. The sex-specificity of the source–sink dynamics predicts that populations can evolve to fail to persist in habitats where alleles do poorly when expressed in females.     

ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES OF SERPENTINE ENDEMISM IN THE CALIFORNIA FLORA

Habitat specialization plays an important role in the creation and loss of biodiversity over ecological and evolutionary time scales. In California, serpentine soils have a distinctive flora, with 246 serpentine habitat specialists (i.e., endemics). Using molecular phylogenies for 23 genera containing 784 taxa and 51 endemics, we infer few transitions out of the endemic state, which is shown by an analysis of transition rates to simply reflect the low frequency of endemics (i.e., reversal rates were high). The finding of high reversal rates, but a low number of reversals, is consistent with the widely hypothesized trade‐off between serpentine tolerance and competitive ability, under which serpentine endemics are physiologically capable of growing in less‐stressful habitats but competitors lead to their extirpation. Endemism is also characterized by a decrease in speciation and extinction rates and a decrease in the overall diversification rate. We also find that tolerators (species with nonserpentine and serpentine populations) undergo speciation in serpentine habitats to give rise to new serpentine endemics but are several times more likely to lose serpentine populations to produce serpentine‐intolerant taxa. Finally, endemics were younger on average than nonendemics, but this alone does not explain their low diversification.     

A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE COEVOLUTION OF RESISTANCE,TOLERANCE, AND VIRULENCE

We present a general host–parasite model that unifies previous theory by investigating the coevolution of virulence, resistance, and tolerance, with respect to multiple physiological, epidemiological, and environmental parameters. Four sets of new predictions emerge. First, compared to virulence coevolving with resistance or tolerance, three‐trait coevolution promotes more virulence and less tolerance, and broadens conditions under which pure defenses evolve. Second, the cost and efficiency of virulence and the epidemiological rates are the key factors of virulence coevolving with resistance and tolerance. Maximum virulence evolves for intermediate infection rate, at which coevolved levels of resistance and tolerance are both high. The influence of host and parasite background mortalities is strong on the evolution of defenses and weak on the coevolution of virulence. Third, evolutionary correlations between defenses can switch sign along single‐parameter gradients. The evolutionary trade‐off between resistance and tolerance may coevolve with virulence that either increases or decreases monotonically, depending on the underlying parameter gradient. Fourth, despite global attractiveness and stability of coevolutionary equilibria, not‐so‐rare and not‐so‐small mutations can beget large variation in virulence and defenses around equilibrium, in the form of transient “evolutionary spikes.” Implications for evolutionary management of infections are discussed and directions for future research are outlined.     

SLOWLY SWITCHING BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTS FACILITATES REVERSE EVOLUTION IN SMALL POPULATIONS

Natural populations must constantly adapt to ever‐changing environmental conditions. A particularly interesting question is whether such adaptations can be reversed by returning the population to an ancestral environment. Such evolutionary reversals have been observed in both natural and laboratory populations. However, the factors that determine the reversibility of evolution are still under debate. The time scales of environmental change vary over a wide range, but little is known about how the rate of environmental change influences the reversibility of evolution. Here, we demonstrate computationally that slowly switching between environments increases the reversibility of evolution for small populations that are subject to only modest clonal interference. For small populations, slow switching reduces the mean number of mutations acquired in a new environment and also increases the probability of reverse evolution at each of these “genetic distances.” As the population size increases, slow switching no longer reduces the genetic distance, thus decreasing the evolutionary reversibility. We confirm this effect using both a phenomenological model of clonal interference and also a Wright–Fisher stochastic simulation that incorporates genetic diversity. Our results suggest that the rate of environmental change is a key determinant of the reversibility of evolution, and provides testable hypotheses for experimental evolution.