Short-term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of Indonesian populations of the butterfly Drupadia theda in East Kalimantan

We investigated the short‐term impact of disturbance on genetic diversity and structure of the tropical butterfly Drupadia theda Felder (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Populations were sampled from five landscapes in East Kalimantan (Borneo, Indonesia) which were differentially disturbed by selective logging and the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐induced drought and fires. Sampling occurred before (in 1997) and after the forest fires (in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2004). Drupadia theda populations underwent serious population size reductions following the 1997/1998 ENSO event. For a total of 208 individuals, we sequenced a 509‐bp segment of mtDNA containing the control region plus the 5’ end of the 12S rDNA gene. Haplotype diversity in D. theda populations ranged from 0.468 to 0.953. Just after the 1997/1998 ENSO event, number of recorded individuals and genetic diversity were very low in D. theda populations sampled in the two severely burned areas and in a small pristine forest fragment that was surrounded by burned forest and thereby affected by drought. Interestingly, higher levels of genetic diversity were observed in logged forest compared to proximate pristine forest. After 1998, the genetic composition within the three ENSO‐disturbed areas diverged. In the twice‐burned forest, the genetic diversity in 1999 already approached pre‐fire levels, while it remained nearly unchanged in proximate once‐burned forest. Our data suggest that the 1997/1998 ENSO‐induced drought and fires caused massive reductions in the genetic diversity of D. theda and that population recoveries were linked to their geographical position relative to patches of unburned forest (and thus to source populations).     

Previous Fires Moderate Burn Severity of Subsequent Wildland Fires in Two Large Western US Wilderness Areas

Wildland fire is an important natural process in many ecosystems. However, fire exclusion has reduced frequency of fire and area burned in many dry forest types, which may affect vegetation structure and composition, and potential fire behavior. In forests of the western U.S., these effects pose a challenge for fire and land managers who seek to restore the ecological process of fire to ecosystems. Recent research suggests that landscapes with unaltered fire regimes are more “self-regulating” than those that have experienced fire-regime shifts; in self-regulating systems, fire size and severity are moderated by the effect of previous fire. To determine if burn severity is moderated in areas that recently burned, we analyzed 117 wildland fires in 2 wilderness areas in the western U.S. that have experienced substantial recent fire activity. Burn severity was measured using a Landsat satellite-based metric at a 30-m resolution. We evaluated (1) whether pixels that burned at least twice since 1984 experienced lower burn severity than pixels that burned once, (2) the relationship between burn severity and fire history, pre-fire vegetation, and topography, and (3) how the moderating effect of a previous fire decays with time. Results show burn severity is significantly lower in areas that have recently burned compared to areas that have not. This effect is still evident at around 22 years between wildland fire events. Results further indicate that burn severity generally increases with time since and severity of previous wildfire. These findings may assist land managers to anticipate the consequences of allowing fires to burn and provide rationale for using wildfire as a “fuel treatment”.     

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005–2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1‐km² land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37–48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel‐rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra.     

Fire risks in forest carbon projects in Indonesia

It is well known that forest carbon or sink projects have not been included in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), one of the flexible mechanismscreated under the Kyoto Protocol. The main concern for postponing sink projectsis related to issues of methodology and integrity. Project eligibility needs tobe judged in a transparent manner if they are real, measurable, provide long-term benefits to mitigate climate change, and provide additional benefits to thosethat would occur in the absence of a certified project.One of the biggest challenges in implementing sink projects is fire risks and the associated biophysical and socio-economic underlying causes. This study attempts to assess fire probability and use it as a tool to estimate fire risk in carbon sink projects. Fire risks may not only threaten ongoing projects but may also cause leakage of carbon stocks in other areas, especially in protected areas. This exercise was carried out in the Berbak National Park located in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia and the surrounding areas. Fire probability is associated with (i) the means by which access to a given area is possible, and (ii) vegetation type or fuel load. Although most fires were intentionally ignited, fire escape is common and is enhanced by long spell of dryweather. When this occurs, secondary road was the most frequently used means, and it was certainly the case during 1997/1998 big fires when damage to natural vegetation (natural and secondary forests) was substantial. Burnt natural vegetation was 120000 ha or 95% of the total burnt areas, and released more than 7 Mt of carbon into the atmosphere.     

Effect of fire regime on plant abundance in a tropical eucalypt savanna of north‐eastern Australia

Abstract Changes in plant abundance within a eucalypt savanna of north‐eastern Australia were studied using a manipulative fire experiment. Three fire regimes were compared between 1997 and 2001: (i) control, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season (July) 1997 only; (ii) early burnt, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season 1997 and early dry season (May) 1999; and (iii) late burnt, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season 1997 and late dry season (October) 1999. Five annual surveys of permanent plots detected stability in the abundance of most species, irrespective of fire regime. However, a significant increase in the abundance of several subshrubs, ephemeral and twining perennial forbs, and grasses occurred in the first year after fire, particularly after late dry season fires. The abundance of these species declined toward prefire levels in the second year after fire. The dominant grass Heteropogon triticeus significantly declined in abundance with fire intervals of 4 years. The density of trees (>2 m tall) significantly increased in the absence of fire for 4 years, because of the growth of saplings; and the basal area of the dominant tree Corymbia clarksoniana significantly increased over the 5‐year study, irrespective of fire regime. Conservation management of these savannas will need to balance the role of regular fires in maintaining the diversity of herbaceous species with the requirement of fire intervals of at least 4‐years for allowing the growth of saplings >2 m in height. Whereas late dry season fires may cause some tree mortality, the use of occasional late fires may help maintain sustainable populations of many grasses and forbs.     

The livelihood impacts of oil palm: smallholders in Indonesia

The biodiversity and climate consequences of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) expansion across South East Asia have received considerable attention. The human side of the issue, highlighted with reports of negative livelihood outcomes and rights abuses by oil palm companies, has also led to controversy. Oil palm related conflicts have been widely documented in Indonesia yet uptake by farmers has also been extensive. An assessment of the livelihood impacts of oil palm development, including sources of conflict, is needed to shed light on the apparent contradiction between these reports and the evident enthusiasm of farmers to join the oil palm craze thereby informing future expansion. We assessed the impact of oil palm development on the economic wellbeing of rural farmers in Indonesia. We found that many smallholders have benefited substantially from the higher returns to land and labour afforded by oil palm but district authorities and smallholder cooperatives play key roles in the realisation of benefits. Conflicts between communities and companies have resulted almost entirely from lack of transparency, the absence of free, prior, and informed consent and unequal benefit sharing, and have been exacerbated by the absence of clear land rights. We make specific recommendations to improve the present situation and foster the establishment of smallholder friendly production regimes. Oil palm expansion in Indonesia is set to continue. If environmental standards can be raised and policy interventions targeted at the broader social impacts of land development this expansion may be achieved to the significant benefit of large numbers of rural smallholders.     

PLS-PM analysis of forest fires using remote sensing tools. The case of Xurés in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve

Forest fires have environmental, social and economic impacts in many areas. Various factors related to territory directly influence both the number and the surface area of each fire. The link between different variables (climate, social and environmental) in the risk of fire and in the characteristics of fires is studied here through Partial Least Squares - Path Models. In addition, images from the Sentinel-2 sensor and geographic information systems are used to create a cartographic base of fires in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Galicia and the Site of Community Importance of Xurés (Galicia) between 2015 and 2020. In all, seven variables are analyzed in this study area using the partial least squares-path modeling method: climate, topography, land use, type of environmental protection, the anthropogenic factor, fire defense, and fire data (severity and area). The parameters for each variable are used to obtain weights and thus determine the importance of each one. The areas where the problem of forest fires is greatest are those with the greatest environmental protection. Up to 31% of the surface area of the Natura 2000 Network was burned in the 6-year study period. Topography and land use are also shown to be relevant factors in the effects of forest fires in this territory. By contrast, higher population density and the development of infrastructures such as roads and water tanks mitigate the impact of fires. The problem of forest fires encompasses many variables that need to be studied. By contextualizing each study area as far as possible, specific measures to prevent and reduce damage can be drawn up.     

Spatial evaluation of Indonesia's 2015 fire‐affected area and estimated carbon emissions using Sentinel‐1

Fires raged once again across Indonesia in the latter half of 2015, creating a state of emergency due to poisonous smoke and haze across Southeast Asia as well as incurring great financial costs to the government. A strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) led to drought in many parts of Indonesia, resulting in elevated fire occurrence comparable with the previous catastrophic event in 1997/1998. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data promise to provide improved detection of land use and land cover changes in the tropics as compared to methodologies dependent upon cloud‐ and haze‐free images. This study presents the first spatially explicit estimates of burned area across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and West Papua based on high‐resolution Sentinel‐1A SAR imagery. Here, we show that 4,604,569 hectares (ha) were burned during the 2015 fire season (overall accuracy 84%), and compare this with other existing operational burned area products (MCD64, GFED4.0, GFED4.1s). Intersection of burned area with fine‐scale land cover and peat layer maps indicates that 0.89 gigatons carbon dioxide equivalents (Gt CO₂e) were released through the fire event. This result is compared to other estimates based on nonspatially explicit thermal anomaly measurements or atmospheric monitoring. Using freely available SAR C‐band data from the Sentinel mission, we argue that the presented methodology is able to quickly and precisely detect burned areas, supporting improvement in fire control management as well as enhancing accuracy of emissions estimation.     

Fire survival of lowland tropical rain forest trees in relation to stem diameter and topographic position

The objective of this study was to relate patterns in forest structure, tree species diversity, and tree species composition to stem diameters and topography in unburned, once burned and twice burned lowland dipterocarp rain forests in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. To do this four unburned old growth forests were compared with three forests that burned once (1997/1998) and three forests that burned twice (1982/1983 and 1997/1998). Fire resulted in a strong reduction of climax tree density which was negatively related to tree diameter. However, a disproportionate reduction in small diameter understorey climax tree species occurred only after repeated fires. Climax tree species in both burned forest types were most common in swamps, river valleys and on lower slopes, while their density was much lower on places higher along hillsides. In unburned forest the opposite was observed, with climax tree density increasing steadily from swamp and river valleys to upper slopes and ridges. In contrast to climax trees, pioneer trees were abundant throughout the burned forest, with highest numbers on hill sides and ridges. Our results indicate that both diameter and topographic position of trees strongly affect their fire survival chances in tropical lowland forests.     

Wildfires in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania: Burned areas,underlying causes and management challenges

The Eastern Arc Mountains are one of the most important ecosystems that conserve biodiversity in the world. These ecosystems are threatened by the increasing occurrence of wildfires. Nevertheless, there is inadequate information useful for the development of effective strategies to prevent or respond to future fires. This paper analyses the current extent of dry season fires, underlying causes and the effectiveness of the fire management strategy being implemented in and around the Uluguru Nature Forest Reserve (UNFR) between 2016 and 2021. Differenced Normalised Burn Ratio derived from Landsat satellite images was applied to determine the extent of burned areas, and focus group discussions were held to determine the underlying causes of fires and the extent of implementation of fire management strategies. About 2% (472 ha) of reserved UNFR and 5% (2,854 ha) of unreserved forests were burned in 2017. Some of the fires impacted on 60% (370 ha) of the grassy Lukwangule plateau, which is home to a fire‐sensitive endemic species. The underlying causes of fires varied spatially across the mountains but generally, fire escaping from farm preparation and hunting activities were found to be the most prevalent. On average, survey participants perceived that fire management strategy objectives were achieved by only 29% mainly constrained by a shortage of financial and human resources. Our findings suggest that ignitions and fire spread in UNFR could be prevented or controlled through sustainable funding of fire management activities and the effective engagement of local communities in the management of the reserve.     

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980–2009)

Non‐native, invasive grasses have been linked to altered grass‐fire cycles worldwide. Although a few studies have quantified resulting changes in fire activity at local scales, and many have speculated about larger scales, regional alterations to fire regimes remain poorly documented. We assessed the influence of large‐scale Bromus tectorum (hereafter cheatgrass) invasion on fire size, duration, spread rate, and interannual variability in comparison to other prominent land cover classes across the Great Basin, USA. We compared regional land cover maps to burned area measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2000–2009 and to fire extents recorded by the USGS registry of fires from 1980 to 2009. Cheatgrass dominates at least 6% of the central Great Basin (650 000 km²). MODIS records show that 13% of these cheatgrass‐dominated lands burned, resulting in a fire return interval of 78 years for any given location within cheatgrass. This proportion was more than double the amount burned across all other vegetation types (range: 0.5–6% burned). During the 1990s, this difference was even more extreme, with cheatgrass burning nearly four times more frequently than any native vegetation type (16% of cheatgrass burned compared to 1–5% of native vegetation). Cheatgrass was also disproportionately represented in the largest fires, comprising 24% of the land area of the 50 largest fires recorded by MODIS during the 2000s. Furthermore, multi‐date fires that burned across multiple vegetation types were significantly more likely to have started in cheatgrass. Finally, cheatgrass fires showed a strong interannual response to wet years, a trend only weakly observed in native vegetation types. These results demonstrate that cheatgrass invasion has substantially altered the regional fire regime. Although this result has been suspected by managers for decades, this study is the first to document recent cheatgrass‐driven fire regimes at a regional scale.     

Bottom-Up Variables Govern Large-Fire Size in Portugal

Large fires and their impacts are a growing concern as changes in climate and land use proceed. The study of large-fire controls remains incipient in comparison with other components of the fire regime. Improved understanding of large-fire size drivers can disclose fire–landscape relationships and inform more sustainable and effective fire management. We used boosted regression tree modeling to identify the variables influent on large-fire size (100–23,219 ha, n = 609) in Portugal (1998–2008) and quantify their relative importance, globally and across the fire-size range. Potential explanatory variables included metrics pertaining to fire weather and antecedent rainfall, burned area composition, fuel connectivity, pyrodiversity (from fire recurrence patterns), topography, and land development. Large fires seldom occurred in the absence of severe fire weather. The fire-size model accounted for 70% of the deviance and included 12 independent variables, of which six absorbed 91% of the explanation. Bottom-up influences on fire size, essentially fuel-related, largely outweighed climate–weather influences, with respective importance of 85 and 15%. Fire size was essentially indifferent to land-cover composition, including forest type, and increased with high fuel connectivity and low pyrodiversity. Relevant synergies between variables were found, either positive or negative, for example, high pyrodiversity buffered the effects of extreme weather on fire size. The relative role of fire-size drivers did not vary substantially with fire size, but fires larger than 500 ha were increasingly controlled by fuel-related variables. The extent of an individual large fire is mainly a function of factors that land-use planning and forest and fuel management can tackle.     

Socioeconomic Factors Drive Fire-Regime Variability in the Mediterranean Basin

In recent decades, fires in Mediterranean Europe have become larger and more frequent. This trend has been driven by socioeconomic changes that have generated rural depopulation and changes in traditional land use. Within the Mediterranean Basin, the most contrasting socioeconomic conditions are found by comparing southern European with North African countries, and thus our hypothesis is that this difference generates contrasting fire regimes between the two regions. Specifically, we predict that current fire regimes in Mediterranean Africa resemble past fire regimes in the Mediterranean Europe when rural activities dominated the landscape. To test our hypothesis, we compared fire statistics from the western Rif (northern Morocco, 1988–2015) and from Valencia (eastern Spain, 1880–2014). The results suggest that the Rif has a typical Mediterranean fire regime with fires occurring in the hot, dry summer season. However, fires are very small and the annual proportion of burnt area is very low, compared to the current regime in Valencia (post-1970s). The current Rif fire size class distribution matches the fire regime in Valencia prior to the 1970s before the collapse of the rural population and when fires were fuel-limited. The shift in the recent decades in fire regime observed in different countries of the Mediterranean Europe (from small, fuel-limited fires to drought-driven fires) can be identified when moving from the southern to the northern rim of the basin. That is, most spatial and temporal variability in fire regimes of the Mediterranean Basin is driven by shifts in the amounts of fuel and continuity imposed by changes in socioeconomic drivers.     

Altered ignition catchments threaten a hyperdiverse fire‐dependent ecosystem

Human activities affect fire in many ways, often unintentionally or with considerable time‐lags before they manifest themselves. Anticipating these changes is critical, so that insidious impacts on ecosystems, their biodiversity and associated goods and services can be avoided, mitigated or managed. Here we explore the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on fire and biodiversity in adjacent ecosystems on the hyperdiverse Cape Peninsula, South Africa. We develop a conceptual framework based on the notion of an ignition catchment, or the spatial extent and temporal range where an ignition is likely to result in a site burning. We apply this concept using fire models to estimate spatial changes in burn probability between historical and current land cover. This change layer was used to predict the observed record of fires and forest encroachment into fire‐dependent Fynbos ecosystems in Table Mountain National Park. Urban expansion has created anthropogenic fire shadows that are modifying fire return intervals, facilitating a state shift to low‐diversity, non‐flammable forest at the expense of hyperdiverse, flammable Fynbos ecosystems. Despite occurring in a conservation area, these ecosystems are undergoing a hidden collapse and desperately require management intervention. Anthropogenic fire shadows can be caused by many human activities and are likely to be a universal phenomenon, not only contributing to the observed global decline in fire activity but also causing extreme fires in ecosystems where there is no shift to a less flammable state and flammable fuels accumulate. The ignition catchment framework is highly flexible and allows detection or prediction of changes in the fire regime, the threat this poses for ecosystems or fire risk and areas where management interventions and/or monitoring are required. Identifying anthropogenic impacts on ignition catchments is key for both understanding global impacts of humans on fire and guiding management of human‐altered landscapes for desirable outcomes.     

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers'' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.     

High resilience of Mediterranean land snail communities to wildfires

In the Mediterranean region, wildfires have devastating effects on animals with limited mobility. With their poor dispersal abilities, their habitats on vegetation and in litter, and their sensitivity to humidity and shade, we expected land snails to be an interesting model to assess short, medium and long-term impact of fires on fauna biodiversity and their resilience. Stratified sampling was carried out on 12 sampling sites in garrigues and forests of Provence (southeastern France), according to fire regime (number of fires, fire intervals and age of the last fire) over the past 30 years. Data were investigated using diversity indexes, Kruskal–Wallis test, dendrogram of affinities and Correspondence Analysis (CA). We found, however, that Mediterranean land snail communities are particularly resilient to fires. Although abundance is drastically reduced in the short-term, species richness and community diversity are preserved provided that the time lapse between two successive fires is longer than the time required for recovery (i.e. around 5 years). This high community resilience in the short-term may be partly due to ecological and ethological aptitudes of land snails. However, these astonishing results, which have implications for conservation biology, are mainly due to the presence, within burned areas, of cryptic refuges that allow initial land snail survival, malacofauna persistence after successive fires and consistent biogeographical patterns in the long-term.     

Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected Area

Covering almost a quarter of Brazil, the Cerrado is the world’s most biologically rich tropical savanna. Fire is an integral part of the Cerrado but current land use and agricultural practices have been changing fire regimes, with undesirable consequences for the preservation of biodiversity. In this study, fire frequency and fire return intervals were modelled over a 12-year time series (1997–2008) for the Jalapão State Park, a protected area in the north of the Cerrado, based on burned area maps derived from Landsat imagery. Burned areas were classified using object based image analysis. Fire data were modelled with the discrete lognormal model and the estimated parameters were used to calculate fire interval, fire survival and hazard of burning distributions, for seven major land cover types. Over the study period, an area equivalent to four times the size of Jalapão State Park burned and the mean annual area burned was 34%. Median fire intervals were generally short, ranging from three to six years. Shrub savannas had the shortest fire intervals, and dense woodlands the longest. Because fires in the Cerrado are strongly responsive to fuel age in the first three to four years following a fire, early dry season patch mosaic burning may be used to reduce the extent of area burned and the severity of fire effects.     

Seasonality of vegetation fires as modified by human action: observing the deviation from eco‐climatic fire regimes

Aim In any region affected, fires exhibit a strong seasonal cycle driven by the dynamic of fuel moisture and ignition sources throughout the year. In this paper we investigate the global patterns of fire seasonality, which we relate to climatic, anthropogenic, land‐cover and land‐use variables. Location Global, with detailed analyses from single 1°× 1° grid cells. Methods We use a fire risk index, the Chandler burning index (CBI), as an indicator of the ‘natural’, eco‐climatic fire seasonality, across all types of ecosystems. A simple metric, the middle of the fire season, is computed from both gridded CBI data and satellite‐derived fire detections. We then interpret the difference between the eco‐climatic and observed metrics as an indicator of the human footprint on fire seasonality. Results Deforestation, shifting cultivation, cropland production or tropical savanna fires are associated with specific timings due to land‐use practices, sometimes largely decoupled from the CBI dynamics. Detailed time series from relevant locations provide comprehensive information about these practices and how they are adapted to eco‐climatic conditions. Main conclusions We find a great influence of anthropogenic activities on global patterns of fire seasonality. The specificity of the main fire practices and their easy identification from global observation is a potential tool to support land‐use monitoring efforts. Our results should also prove valuable in the development of a methodological approach for improving the representation of anthropogenic fire practices in dynamic global vegetation models.     

Projecting future fire activity in Amazonia

Fires are major disturbances for ecosystems in Amazonia. They affect vegetation succession, alter nutrients and carbon cycling, and modify the composition of the atmosphere. Fires in this region are strongly related to land‐use, land‐cover and climate conditions. Because these factors are all expected to change in the future, it is reasonable to expect that fire activity will also change. Models are needed to quantitatively estimate the magnitude of these potential changes. Here we present a new fire model developed by relating satellite information on fires to corresponding statistics on climate, land‐use and land‐cover. The model is first shown to reproduce the main contemporary large‐scale features of fire patterns in Amazonia. To estimate potential changes in fire activity in the future, we then applied the model to two alternative scenarios of development of the region. We find that in both scenarios, substantial changes in the frequency and spatial patterns of fires are expected unless steps are taken to mitigate fire activity.     

Human Impacts on the Fire Regime of Interior Alaska: Interactions among Fuels, Ignition Sources, and Fire Suppression

Wildfire is the major natural agent of disturbance in interior Alaska. We examined the magnitude of human impact on fire by comparing fire regime between individual 1-km² grid cells designated for fire suppression with lands where fires are allowed to burn naturally. Two-thirds of interior Alaska has an essentially natural fire regime, with few human ignitions, negligible suppression activity, and many large lightning-caused fires. In the 17% of land that is designated for fire suppression due to its proximity to communities and roads, there was a 50% reduction in the proportion of area burned from 1992–2001, relative to areas without suppression. The remaining 16% of land serves as a buffer, receives some suppression, and has an intermediate fire regime. Even though there were 50 times more fires and the fire season began two months earlier in lands designated for suppression, most of these fires were lit by people and remained small because fires tended to occur at times and places less favorable for fire spread and were more accessible to fire fighters compared to lands not designated for suppression. Even in the absence of fire suppression, human-caused fires were less likely to exceed 400 ha compared to lightning-caused fires. Fire suppression reduced area burned in all fuel types but was somewhat more effective in less flammable (non-forest) vegetation. Alaska’s fire policy of focusing suppression efforts on a small proportion of the fire-prone region maximizes the ecological and social benefits associated with fire-dependent ecosystem services, while minimizing the social and ecological costs of suppression. Application of this policy to other areas would require well-informed managers and stakeholders to make difficult decisions about the relative costs and benefits of fire across ecologically and culturally variable landscapes.