Joint inference of microsatellite mutation models, population history and genealogies using transdimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We provide a framework for Bayesian coalescent inference from microsatellite data that enables inference of population history parameters averaged over microsatellite mutation models. To achieve this we first implemented a rich family of microsatellite mutation models and related components in the software package BEAST. BEAST is a powerful tool that performs Bayesian MCMC analysis on molecular data to make coalescent and evolutionary inferences. Our implementation permits the application of existing nonparametric methods to microsatellite data. The implemented microsatellite models are based on the replication slippage mechanism and focus on three properties of microsatellite mutation: length dependency of mutation rate, mutational bias toward expansion or contraction, and number of repeat units changed in a single mutation event. We develop a new model that facilitates microsatellite model averaging and Bayesian model selection by transdimensional MCMC. With Bayesian model averaging, the posterior distributions of population history parameters are integrated across a set of microsatellite models and thus account for model uncertainty. Simulated data are used to evaluate our method in terms of accuracy and precision of estimation and also identification of the true mutation model. Finally we apply our method to a red colobus monkey data set as an example.     

Genetic diversity, population structure, effective population size and demographic history of the Finnish wolf population

The Finnish wolf population (Canis lupus) was sampled during three different periods (1996-1998, 1999-2001 and 2002-2004), and 118 individuals were genotyped with 10 microsatellite markers. Large genetic variation was found in the population despite a recent demographic bottleneck. No spatial population subdivision was found even though a significant negative relationship between genetic relatedness and geographic distance suggested isolation by distance. Very few individuals did not belong to the local wolf population as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. We used the temporal approach and several statistical methods to estimate the variance effective size of the population. All methods gave similar estimates of effective population size, approximately 40 wolves. These estimates were slightly larger than the estimated census size of breeding individuals. A Bayesian model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated strong evidence for a long-term population decline. These results suggest that the contemporary wolf population size is roughly 8% of its historical size, and that the population decline dates back to late 19th century or early 20th century. Despite an increase of over 50% in the census size of the population during the whole study period, there was only weak evidence that the effective population size during the last period was higher than during the first. This may be caused by increased inbreeding, diminished dispersal within the population, and decreased immigration to the population during the last study period.     

Effects of recent population bottlenecks on reconstructing the demographic history of prairie-chickens

Current methods of DNA sequence analysis attempt to reconstruct historical patterns of population structure and growth from contemporary samples. However, these techniques may be influenced by recent population bottlenecks, which have the potential to eliminate lineages that reveal past changes in demography. One way to examine the performance of these demographic methods is to compare samples from populations before and after recent bottlenecks. We compared estimates of demographic history from populations of greater prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) before and after recent bottlenecks using four common methods (nested clade analysis [NCA], Tajima's D, mismatch distribution, and MDIV). We found that NCA did not perform well in the presence of bottleneck events, although it did recover some genetic signals associated with increased isolation and the extinction of intermediate populations. The majority of estimates for Tajima's D, including those from bottlenecked populations, were not significantly different from zero, suggesting our data conformed to neutral expectations. In contrast, mismatch distributions including the raggedness index were more likely to identify recently bottlenecked populations with this data set. Estimates of population mutation rate (theta), population divergence time (t), and time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) from MDIV were similar before and after bottlenecks; however, estimates of gene flow (M) were significantly lower in a few cases following a bottleneck. These results suggest that caution should be used when assessing demographic history from contemporary data sets, as recently fragmented and bottlenecked populations may have lost lineages that affect inferences of their demographic history.     

An integrated framework for the inference of viral population history from reconstructed genealogies

We describe a unified set of methods for the inference of demographic history using genealogies reconstructed from gene sequence data. We introduce the skyline plot, a graphical, nonparametric estimate of demographic history. We discuss both maximum-likelihood parameter estimation and demographic hypothesis testing. Simulations are carried out to investigate the statistical properties of maximum-likelihood estimates of demographic parameters. The simulations reveal that (i) the performance of exponential growth model estimates is determined by a simple function of the true parameter values and (ii) under some conditions, estimates from reconstructed trees perform as well as estimates from perfect trees. We apply our methods to HIV-1 sequence data and find strong evidence that subtypes A and B have different demographic histories. We also provide the first (albeit tentative) genetic evidence for a recent decrease in the growth rate of subtype B.     

Life history evolution and demographic stochasticity

Summary Can demographic stochasticity bias the evolution of life history traits? Under a neutral version of the Cole-Charnov-Schaffer model, variance in offspring number for both annuals and perennials depends on the precise values of fitness components. Either annuals or perennials may have the larger variance (for equal ), depending on the importance of random survivalversus fixed reproduction. By extension, the variance in offspring number should generally depend on whether is mainly composed of highly variable elements or elements with limited variation. Thus, data about the variability of demographic parameters may be as important as data about their mean values.This result concerns only one source of demographic stochasticity, the probabilistic nature of demographic processes like survival. The other source of demographic stochasticity is the fact that populations are composed of whole numbers of individuals (integer arithmetic). Integer arithmetic without probabilistic demography (or environmental variation) can make it difficult for rare invaders to persist in populations even when selection would favour the invaders in a deterministic model. Integer arithmetic can also cause population coexistence when the equivalent deterministic model leads to exclusion. This effect disappears when demography is probabilistic, and probably also when there is environmental variation. Thus probabilistic demography and environmental variation may make some population patterns more, rather than less, understandable.     

Inferring the population structure and demographic history of the tick, Amblyomma americanum Linnaeus.

A hierarchial population genetic study was conducted on 703 individual Amblyomma americanum from nine populations in Georgia, U.S.A. Populations were sampled from the Coastal Plain, midland Piedmont region, and the upper Piedmont region. Twenty-nine distinct haplotypes were found. A minimum spanning tree was constructed that indicated these haplotypes comprised two lineages, the root of which was distinctly star-like. The majority of the variation found was among ticks within each population, indicating high amounts of gene flow and little genetic differentiation between the three regions. An overall F(ST) value of 0.006 supported the lack of genetic structuring between collection sites in Georgia. Mantel regression analysis revealed no isolation by distance. Signatures of population expansion were detected in the shapes of the mismatch distribution and tests of neutrality. The absence of genetic differentiation combined with the rejection of the null model of isolation by distance may indicate recent range expansion in Georgia or insufficient time to reach an equilibrium where genetic drift may have affected allele frequencies. Alternatively, the high degree of panmixia found within A. americanum in Georgia may be due to bird-mediated dispersal of ticks increasing the genetic similarity between geographically separated populations.     

Drivers of megaherbivore demographic fluctuations: inference from elephants

Environmentally induced variation in survival and fecundity generates demographic fluctuations that affect population growth rate. However, a general pattern of the comparative influence of variation in fecundity and juvenile survival on elephant population dynamics has not been investigated at a broad scale. We evaluated the relative importance of conception, gestation, first year survival and subsequent survivorship for controlling demographic variation by exploring the relationship between past environmental conditions determined by integrated normalized difference vegetation index (INDVI) and the shape of age distributions at 17 sites across Africa. We showed that, generally, INDVI during gestation best explained anomalies in age structure. However, in areas with low mean annual rainfall, INDVI during the first year of life was critical. The results challenge Eberhardt's paradigm for population analysis that suggests that populations respond to limited resource availability through a sequential decrease in juvenile survival, reproductive rate and adult survival. Contrastingly, elephants appear to respond first through a reduction in reproductive rate. We conclude that this discrepancy is likely due to the evolutionary significance of extremely large body size – an adaptation that increases survival rate but decreases reproductive potential. Other megaherbivores may respond similarly to resource limitation due to similarities in population dynamics. Knowing how vital rates vary with changing environmental conditions will permit better forecasts of the trajectories of megaherbivore populations.     

REJECTOR: software for population history inference from genetic data via a rejection algorithm

We introduce REJECTOR, software for parameter estimation and comparison of alternate models of population history from genetic data via a rejection algorithm. Through coalescent simulation, REJECTOR generates numerous gene genealogies, and hence simulated data, under a model of population history specified by the user. Summary statistics derived from such simulated data are compared with observed statistics, leading to acceptance or rejection of a given set of parameter values. We performed tests of the software using known parameter values in order to assess the inferential power provided by each summary statistic. The tests demonstrate the precision and accuracy of estimation made possible using this approach. AVAILABILITY: http://www.rejector.org     

Human population growth and the demographic transition

The world and most regions and countries are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the huge expansion of human numbers: four billion have been added since 1950. Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions. Other demographic processes are also undergoing extraordinary change: women''s fertility has dropped rapidly and life expectancy has risen to new highs. Past trends in fertility and mortality have led to very young populations in high fertility countries in the developing world and to increasingly older populations in the developed world. Contemporary societies are now at very different stages of their demographic transitions. This paper summarizes key trends in population size, fertility and mortality, and age structures during these transitions. The focus is on the century from 1950 to 2050, which covers the period of most rapid global demographic transformation.     

Complexity and demographic stability in population models

This article is concerned with relating the stability of a population, as defined by the rate of decay of fluctuations induced by demographic stochasticity, with its heterogeneity in age-specific birth and death rates. We invoke the theory of large deviations to establish a fluctuation theorem: The demographic stability of a population is positively correlated with evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in the population. This theorem is exploited to predict certain correlations between ecological constraints and evolutionary trends in demographic stability, namely, (i) bounded growth constraints--a uni-directional increase in stability, (ii) unbounded growth constraints (large population size)--a uni-directional decrease in stability, (iii) unbounded growth constraints (small population size)--random, non-directional change in stability. These principles relating ecological constraints with trends in demographic stability are shown to be far reaching generalizations of the tenets derived from classical studies of stability in an evolutionary context. These results thus provide a new conceptual framework for explaining patterns of variation in population numbers observed in natural populations.     

The recent demographic and adaptive history of Drosophila melanogaster

Population genetic analyses of the past two decades confirmed an earlier hypothesis by L Tsacas and D Lachaise that the cosmopolitan species Drosophila melanogaster has an Afrotropical origin, and that it colonized the rest of the world only very recently. Maximum likelihood analyses based on multilocus data suggest that the putative ancestral African population expanded its size about 60,000 years ago (ya). These demographic changes were accompanied by the fixation of numerous beneficial mutations, as revealed by signatures of positive directional selection in the genome (selective sweeps). The estimated rate of adaptive substitution on the X chromosome is in the order of 10(-11) per nucleotide site per generation. Comparable (but not significantly higher) substitution rates are found in derived populations that colonized new habitats outside Africa, such as in a European population that branched off from the African lineage about 16,000 ya.     

Joint inference of the distribution of fitness effects of deleterious mutations and population demography based on nucleotide polymorphism frequencies

The distribution of fitness effects of new mutations (DFE) is important for addressing several questions in genetics, including the nature of quantitative variation and the evolutionary fate of small populations. Properties of the DFE can be inferred by comparing the distributions of the frequencies of segregating nucleotide polymorphisms at selected and neutral sites in a population sample, but demographic changes alter the spectrum of allele frequencies at both neutral and selected sites, so can bias estimates of the DFE if not accounted for. We have developed a maximum-likelihood approach, based on the expected allele-frequency distribution generated by transition matrix methods, to estimate parameters of the DFE while simultaneously estimating parameters of a demographic model that allows a population size change at some time in the past. We tested the method using simulations and found that it accurately recovers simulated parameter values, even if the simulated demography differs substantially from that assumed in our analysis. We use our method to estimate parameters of the DFE for amino acid-changing mutations in humans and Drosophila melanogaster. For a model of unconditionally deleterious mutations, with effects sampled from a gamma distribution, the mean estimate for the distribution shape parameter is approximately 0.2 for human populations, which implies that the DFE is strongly leptokurtic. For Drosophila populations, we estimate that the shape parameter is approximately 0.35. Differences in the shape of the distribution and the mean selection coefficient between humans and Drosophila result in significantly more strongly deleterious mutations in Drosophila than in humans, and, conversely, nearly neutral mutations are significantly less frequent.     

Tree-guided Bayesian inference of population structures

Motivation: Inferring population structures using genetic datasampled from a group of individuals is a challenging task. Manymethods either consider a fixed population number or ignorethe correlation between populations. As a result, they can losesensitivity and specificity in detecting subtle stratifications.In addition, when a large number of genetic markers are used,many existing algorithms perform rather inefficiently. Result: We propose a new Bayesian method to infer populationstructures using multiple unlinked single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs). Our approach explicitly considers the population correlationthrough a tree hierarchy, and treat the population number asa random variable. Using both simulated and real datasets ofworldwide samples, we demonstrate that an incorporated treecan consistently improve the power in detecting subtle populationstratifications. A tree-based model often involves a large numberof unknown parameters, and the corresponding estimation procedurecan be highly inefficient. We further implement a partitionmethod to analytically integrate out all nuisance parametersin the tree. As a result, our method can analyze large SNP datasetswith significantly improved convergence rate. Availability: http://www.stat.psu.edu/~yuzhang/tips.tar Contact: yuzhang{at}stat.psu.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are availableat Bioinformatics online. Associate Editor: Keith Crandall     

A life‐history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments

Current understanding of life‐history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non‐stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics.     

Genetic structure and demographic history should inform conservation: Chinese cobras currently treated as homogenous show population divergence

An understanding of population structure and genetic diversity is crucial for wildlife conservation and for determining the integrity of wildlife populations. The vulnerable Chinese cobra (Naja atra) has a distribution from the mouth of the Yangtze River down to northern Vietnam and Laos, within which several large mountain ranges and water bodies may influence population structure. We combined 12 microsatellite loci and 1117 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene to explore genetic structure and demographic history in this species, using 269 individuals from various localities in Mainland China and Vietnam. High levels of genetic variation were identified for both mtDNA and microsatellites. mtDNA data revealed two main (Vietnam + southern China + southwestern China; eastern + southeastern China) and one minor (comprising only two individuals from the westernmost site) clades. Microsatellite data divided the eastern + southeastern China clade further into two genetic clusters, which include individuals from the eastern and southeastern regions, respectively. The Luoxiao and Nanling Mountains may be important barriers affecting the diversification of lineages. In the haplotype network of cytchrome b, many haplotypes were represented within a "star" cluster and this and other tests suggest recent expansion. However, microsatellite analyses did not yield strong evidence for a recent bottleneck for any population or genetic cluster. The three main clusters identified here should be considered as independent management units for conservation purposes. The release of Chinese cobras into the wild should cease unless their origin can be determined, and this will avoid problems arising from unnatural homogenization.     

Evidence for a complex demographic history of chimpanzees

To characterize patterns of genomic variation in central chimpanzees(Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and gain insight into their evolution,we sequenced nine unlinked, intergenic regions, representinga total of 19,000 base pairs, in 14 individuals. When theseDNA sequences are compared with homologous sequences previouslycollected in humans and in western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytesverus), nucleotide diversity is higher in central chimpanzeesthan in western chimpanzees or in humans. Consistent with alarger effective population size of central chimpanzees, levelsof linkage disequilibrium are lower than in humans. Patternsof linkage disequilibrium further suggest that homologous geneconversion may be an important contributor to genetic exchangeat short distances, in agreement with a previous study of thesame DNA sequences in humans. In central chimpanzees, but notin western chimpanzees, the allele frequency spectrum is significantlyskewed towards rare alleles, pointing to population size changesor fine-scale population structure. Strikingly, the extent ofgenetic differentiation between western and central chimpanzeesis much stronger than what is seen between human populations.This suggests that careful attention should be paid to geographicsampling in studies of chimpanzee genetic variation.     

Selection, recombination and demographic history in Drosophila miranda

Selection, recombination, and the demographic history of a species can all have profound effects on genomewide patterns of variability. To assess the impact of these forces in the genome of Drosophila miranda, we examine polymorphism and divergence patterns at 62 loci scattered across the genome. In accordance with recent findings in D. melanogaster, we find that noncoding DNA generally evolves more slowly than synonymous sites, that the distribution of polymorphism frequencies in noncoding DNA is significantly skewed toward rare variants relative to synonymous sites, and that long introns evolve significantly slower than short introns or synonymous sites. These observations suggest that most noncoding DNA is functionally constrained and evolving under purifying selection. However, in contrast to findings in the D. melanogaster species group, we find little evidence of adaptive evolution acting on either coding or noncoding sequences in D. miranda. Levels of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in D. miranda are comparable to those observed in D. melanogaster, but vary considerably among chromosomes. These patterns suggest a significantly lower rate of recombination on autosomes, possibly due to the presence of polymorphic autosomal inversions and/or differences in chromosome sizes. All chromosomes show significant departures from the standard neutral model, including too much heterogeneity in synonymous site polymorphism relative to divergence among loci and a general excess of rare synonymous polymorphisms. These departures from neutral equilibrium expectations are discussed in the context of nonequilibrium models of demography and selection.