A vegetation-based method to map climatic variation in the arctic–boreal transition area of Finnmark, north-easternmost Norway

Aim To develop a new method for bioclimate mapping where the vegetation layer is the main source of climate information. Location The study area includes four subareas, all situated on the Varangerhalvøya peninsula in Finnmark, north‐easternmost Norway (70–71° N). The four subareas were chosen to represent most of the climatic, topographic, geomorphologic and botanic diversity along the arctic–boreal gradient in the area. The four meteorological stations in the area show a climatic gradient with mean July temperature ranging from 10.1 to 12.3 °C. Methods The new vegetation‐based method is based on the fact that most plant species and plant communities both in the Arctic and adjacent areas have a distribution pattern limited by temperature to some extent. The vegetation is mapped using Landsat TM data and a contextual correction process in a geographic information system. The mapped vegetation units are defined as temperature indicators based on their total distribution patterns and the temperature indicator value of their high frequency and dominant species. The indicator value and degree of cover of all thermophilous vegetation units, within each 500 × 500 m study unit, are combined in a Vegetation‐based Index of Thermophily, VI_tm. This new vegetation‐based method is based on the same basic idea as a recently published floristic‐based method for calculating a Floristic‐based Index of Thermophily, FI_tm. The VI_tm values are tested by comparison with the FI_tm values, and temperature data collected in the field during two growing seasons, and the differences are interpreted ecologically. Results Twenty‐one of the mapped vegetation units were defined as thermophilous and categorized in five groups of temperature indicators. The VI_tm values showed a strong positive linear relationship with the temperatures measured during the years 2001 and 2002, with r² values of 0.79 and 0.85, respectively. The VI_tm values show a high linear relationship (r² = 0.76) with the 71 study units where the FI_tm values were calculated. As interpreted from the relationship with temperature measurements and FI_tm values, the vegetation‐based method seems to work at a broad range of ecological conditions, with very dry, acidic sites being the most important exception. The VI_tm values are related to growing degree‐days of a normal year, and the four subareas are mapped, showing a diversity of 13 bioclimatic classes. The birch forest line is estimated to occur at about 980 °C‐days. The results show climatic gradients with temperatures increasing from the cold coast towards the interior, from wind‐exposed convex hills towards wind‐protected valleys, and from mountain plateaux towards south‐facing lowlands. The north‐easternmost study site at the coast is positioned within the arctic shrub tundra zone. Main conclusions The vegetation‐based method shows a strong positive correlation both with measured temperatures and the floristic‐based method within a broad range of different ecological conditions. The vegetation‐based method has the potential for bioclimatic mapping of large areas in a cost‐effective way. The floristic‐based method has higher accuracy and is more flexible than the vegetation‐based method, and the two methods seem to complement each other.     

Bioclimatic and vegetation mapping of a topographically complex oceanic island applying different interpolation techniques

Different spatial interpolation techniques have been applied to construct objective bioclimatic maps of La Palma, Canary Islands. Interpolation of climatic data on this topographically complex island with strong elevation and climatic gradients represents a challenge. Furthermore, meteorological stations are not evenly distributed over the island, with few stations at high elevations. We carried out spatial interpolations of the compensated thermicity index (Itc) and the annual ombrothermic Index (Io), in order to obtain appropriate bioclimatic maps by using automatic interpolation procedures, and to establish their relation to potential vegetation units for constructing a climatophilous potential natural vegetation map (CPNV). For this purpose, we used five interpolation techniques implemented in a GIS: inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), ordinary cokriging (OCK), multiple linear regression (MLR) and MLR followed by ordinary kriging of the regression residuals. Two topographic variables (elevation and aspect), derived from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), were included in OCK and MLR. The accuracy of the interpolation techniques was examined by the results of the error statistics of test data derived from comparison of the predicted and measured values. Best results for both bioclimatic indices were obtained with the MLR method with interpolation of the residuals showing the highest R ² of the regression between observed and predicted values and lowest values of root mean square errors. MLR with correction of interpolated residuals is an attractive interpolation method for bioclimatic mapping on this oceanic island since it permits one to fully account for easily available geographic information but also takes into account local variation of climatic data.     

Floristic division of the Arctic

Abstract: The progress in the floristic study of the circumpolar Arctic since the 1940s is summarized and a new floristic division of this region is presented. The treeless areas of the North Atlantic and North Pacific with an oceanic climate, absence of permafrost and a very high proportion of boreal taxa are excluded from the Arctic proper. It is argued that the Arctic deserves the status of a floristic region. The tundra zone and some oceanic areas are divided into subzones according to their flora and vegetation. Two groups of subzones are recognized: the Arctic group (including the Arctic tundras proper and the High Arctic) and the Hypoarctic group. The Arctic phytochorion is floristically divided into sectors: 6 provinces and 20 subprovinces reflecting the regional features of each sector in connection with flora history, physiography and continentality-oceanity of the climate. Each sector is described and differentiated by a set of differential and co-differential species. The peculiarities of the Arctic flora are manifest in different ways in the various sectors, and endemism is not the universal criterion for subdivision.     

The Circumpolar Arctic vegetation map

Abstract. Question: What are the major vegetation units in the Arctic, what is their composition, and how are they distributed among major bioclimate subzones and countries? Location: The Arctic tundra region, north of the tree line. Methods: A photo‐interpretive approach was used to delineate the vegetation onto an Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) base image. Mapping experts within nine Arctic regions prepared draft maps using geographic information technology (ArcInfo) of their portion of the Arctic, and these were later synthesized to make the final map. Area analysis of the map was done according to bioclimate subzones, and country. The integrated mapping procedures resulted in other maps of vegetation, topography, soils, landscapes, lake cover, substrate pH, and above‐ground biomass. Results: The final map was published at 1:7 500 000 scale map. Within the Arctic (total area = 7.11 × 106 km²), about 5.05 × 10⁶ km² is vegetated. The remainder is ice covered. The map legend generally portrays the zonal vegetation within each map polygon. About 26% of the vegetated area is erect shrublands, 18% peaty graminoid tundras, 13% mountain complexes, 12% barrens, 11% mineral graminoid tundras, 11% prostrate‐shrub tundras, and 7% wetlands. Canada has by far the most terrain in the High Arctic mostly associated with abundant barren types and prostrate dwarf‐shrub tundra, whereas Russia has the largest area in the Low Arctic, predominantly low‐shrub tundra. Conclusions: The CAVM is the first vegetation map of an entire global biome at a comparable resolution. The consistent treatment of the vegetation across the circumpolar Arctic, abundant ancillary material, and digital database should promote the application to numerous land‐use, and climate‐change applications and will make updating the map relatively easy.     

Bioclimatic evaluation of the human discomfort level for several Antarctic regions

A set of unfavorable climatic factors determines how extreme the environment is for humans in particular regions. The Arctic and Antarctic (polar) regions are generally considered to be the most extreme environments. Assessing the extreme conditions is of importance for developing life support systems and personal protective equipment, implementing proper labor management, and preventing frostbite. Several methods are currently used to assess the climate severity, but none of them addresses the level of discomfort for humans. Two indices, the Wind Chill Index (WCI) and Bioclimatic Index of Severity of Climatic Regime (BISCR), were previously developed to estimate the level of bioclimatic discomfort. With the indices, bioclimatic parameters were evaluated for eight Antarctic stations: Amundsen–Scott, Bellingshausen, Byrd, McMurdo, Mirny, Molodezhnaya, Novolazarevskaya, and Vostok. Monthly and annual data on air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, altitude, and air pressure were used to calculate the WCI and BISCR. The BISCR, which includes hypoxia as a component of bioclimatic discomfort, was found to better predict the impact of meteorological conditions on the human body in Antarctica and to allow comparisons of outdoor climatic conditions and indoor microclimate for Antarctic stations. The WCI proved to detect no difference between stations from different climatic zones, especially in indoor conditions, thus being unsuitable for comparisons. The findings can be used for labor management at inland Antarctic stations to minimize possible health risks.     

Rich and cold: diversity,distribution and drivers of fungal communities in patterned‐ground ecosystems of the North American Arctic

Fungi are abundant and functionally important in the Arctic, yet comprehensive studies of their diversity in relation to geography and environment are not available. We sampled soils in paired plots along the North American Arctic Transect (NAAT), which spans all five bioclimatic subzones of the Arctic. Each pair of plots contrasted relatively bare, cryoturbated patterned‐ground features (PGFs) and adjacent vegetated between patterned‐ground features (bPGFs). Fungal communities were analysed via sequencing of 7834 ITS‐LSU clones. We recorded 1834 OTUs – nearly half the fungal richness previously reported for the entire Arctic. These OTUs spanned eight phyla, 24 classes, 75 orders and 120 families, but were dominated by Ascomycota, with one‐fifth belonging to lichens. Species richness did not decline with increasing latitude, although there was a decline in mycorrhizal taxa that was offset by an increase in lichen taxa. The dominant OTUs were widespread even beyond the Arctic, demonstrating no dispersal limitation. Yet fungal communities were distinct in each subzone and were correlated with soil pH, climate and vegetation. Communities in subzone E were distinct from the other subzones, but similar to those of the boreal forest. Fungal communities on disturbed PGFs differed significantly from those of paired stable areas in bPGFs. Indicator species for PGFs included lichens and saprotrophic fungi, while bPGFs were characterized by ectomycorrhizal and pathogenic fungi. Our results suggest that the Arctic does not host a unique mycoflora, while Arctic fungi are highly sensitive to climate and vegetation, with potential to migrate rapidly as global change unfolds.     

Epiphyte sensitivity to a cross-scale interaction between habitat quality and macroclimate: an opportunity for range-edge conservation

Bioclimatic envelope models are frequently used to project the species response to climate change scenarios. Development and improvement of bioclimatic models has focussed on data properties and statistical tools, while significant criticism continues to challenge the ecological framework of model assumptions. We hypothesised that a potential for model improvement emerges from linkage across scales, between macroclimate and variation in local habitat quality: i.e. a species’ habitat specificity may shift along macroclimatic gradients. We first sampled two test-case epiphytic lichen species across a steep climatic gradient, and second developed standard bioclimatic models accompanied by a threshold likelihood value for discriminating presences and absences. We used the difference between predicted model values and the threshold as a response variable (D _thr): we show that values for D _thr are explained by an interaction between the climatic setting and habitat quality. A potential error in bioclimatic models is then quantified as the region of false absences or presences, which would be incurred as a consequence of sensitivity to variable habitat. This signature habitat effect occurs at a species’ range-edge, and, as a corollary, provides quantification in support of conservation: i.e. information is provided on how a habitat may be managed in marginal climatic regions (leading or trailing range-edge boundaries) in order to promote species protection.     

Use of direct gradient analysis to study the climate-vegetation relationships in Galicia,Spain

This paper reports a bioclimatic analysis of plant species in Galicia, NW Spain. A set of floristic data obtained from 150 plots located at euclimatopes (sites with monitored climate) was analysed using direct gradient analysis and clustering with respect to the 8 climatic variables thought to play a major role in regulating the distribution of the species considered in the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering were based on a matrix of species by climatic variables. Indicator taxa for the variables were identified on the basis of their Indicator values (Brisse & Grandjouan 1978) and grouped by cluster analysis. The groups produced were compatible with the results of principal component analysis and the frequential analysis of the species, which identified their phytoclimatic nature. The groups were then characterized by determining their climatic positions and indicator values with respect to the chief climatic variables. The first three PCA axes, which were associated with Oceanity, Mean minimum temperatures and the temperature range in the coldest month, together accounted for 97.2% of the variance of the data.     

The genomic footprint of climate adaptation in Chironomus riparius

The gradual heterogeneity of climatic factors poses varying selection pressures across geographic distances that leave signatures of clinal variation in the genome. Separating signatures of clinal adaptation from signatures of other evolutionary forces, such as demographic processes, genetic drift and adaptation, to nonclinal conditions of the immediate local environment is a major challenge. Here, we examine climate adaptation in five natural populations of the harlequin fly Chironomus riparius sampled along a climatic gradient across Europe. Our study integrates experimental data, individual genome resequencing, Pool‐Seq data and population genetic modelling. Common‐garden experiments revealed significantly different population growth rates at test temperatures corresponding to the population origin along the climate gradient, suggesting thermal adaptation on the phenotypic level. Based on a population genomic analysis, we derived empirical estimates of historical demography and migration. We used an F_ST outlier approach to infer positive selection across the climate gradient, in combination with an environmental association analysis. In total, we identified 162 candidate genes as genomic basis of climate adaptation. Enriched functions among these candidate genes involved the apoptotic process and molecular response to heat, as well as functions identified in studies of climate adaptation in other insects. Our results show that local climate conditions impose strong selection pressures and lead to genomic adaptation despite strong gene flow. Moreover, these results imply that selection to different climatic conditions seems to converge on a functional level, at least between different insect species.     

Variation in Serripes groenlandicus (Bivalvia) growth in a Norwegian high-Arctic fjord: evidence for local- and large-scale climatic forcing

We examined the growth rate of the circumpolar Greenland Cockle ( Serripes groenlandicus ) over a period of 20 years (1983–2002) from Rijpfjord, a high-Arctic fjord in northeast Svalbard (80°10'N, 22°15'E). This period encompassed different phases of large-scale climatic oscillations with accompanying variations in local physical variables (temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, sea ice cover), allowing us to analyze the linkage between growth rate, climatic oscillations, and their local physical and biological manifestations. Standard growth index (SGI), an ontogenetically adjusted measure of annual growth, ranged from a low of 0.27 in 2002 up to 2.46 in 1996. Interannual variation in growth corresponded to the Arctic climate regime index (ACRI), with high growth rates during the positive ACRI phase characterized by cyclonic ocean circulation and a warmer and wetter climate. Growth rates were influenced by local manifestations of the ACRI: positively correlated with precipitation and to a lesser extent negatively correlated with atmospheric pressure. A multiple regression model explains 65% of the variability in growth rate by the ACRI and precipitation at the nearest meteorological station. There were, however, complexities in the relationship between growth and physical variables, including an apparent 1 year lag between physical forcing changes and biological response. Also, when the last 4 years of poor growth are excluded, there is a very strong negative correlation with ice cover on a pan-arctic scale. Our results suggest that bivalves, as sentinels of climate change on multi-decadal scales, are sensitive to environmental variations associated with large-scale changes in climate, but that the effects will be determined by changes in environmental parameters regulating marine production and food availability on a local scale.     

Direct and indirect climatic drivers of biotic interactions: ice-cover and carbon runoff shaping Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus and brown trout Salmo trutta competitive asymmetries

One of the major challenges in ecological climate change impact science is to untangle the climatic effects on biological interactions and indirect cascading effects through different ecosystems. Here, we test for direct and indirect climatic drivers on competitive impact of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) on brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) along a climate gradient in central Scandinavia, spanning from coastal to high-alpine environments. As a measure of competitive impact, trout food consumption was measured using ¹³⁷Cs tracer methodology both during the ice-covered and ice-free periods, and contrasted between lakes with or without char coexistence along the climate gradient. Variation in food consumption between lakes was best described by a linear mixed effect model including a three-way interaction between the presence/absence of Arctic char, season and Secchi depth. The latter is proxy for terrestrial dissolved organic carbon run-off, strongly governed by climatic properties of the catchment. The presence of Arctic char had a negative impact on trout food consumption. However, this effect was stronger during ice-cover and in lakes receiving high carbon load from the catchment, whereas no effect of water temperature was evident. In conclusion, the length of the ice-covered period and the export of allochthonous material from the catchment are likely major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of the competitive interaction between two freshwater lake top predators. While future climatic scenarios predict shorter ice-cover duration, they also predict increased carbon run-off. The present study therefore emphasizes the complexity of cascading ecosystem effects in future effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Reproduction and seedling establishment of Picea glauca across the northernmost forest‐tundra region in Canada

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest‐tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest‐tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest‐tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest‐tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest‐tundra ecotone.     

Palms tracking climate change

Aim  Many species are currently expanding their ranges in response to climate change, but the mechanisms underlying these range expansions are in many cases poorly understood. In this paper we explore potential climatic factors governing the recent establishment of new palm populations far to the north of any other viable palm population in the world.
Location  Southern Switzerland, Europe, Asia and the world.
Methods  We identified ecological threshold values for the target species, Trachycarpus fortunei , based on gridded climate data, altitude and distributional records from the native range and applied them to the introduced range using local field monitoring and measured meteorological data as well as a bioclimatic model.
Results  We identified a strong relationship between minimum winter temperatures, influenced by growing season length and the distribution of the palm in its native range. Recent climate change strongly coincides with the palm's recent spread into southern Switzerland, which is in concert with the expansion of the global range of palms across various continents.
Main conclusions  Our results strongly suggest that the expansion of palms into (semi-)natural forests is driven by changes in winter temperature and growing season length and not by delayed population expansion. This implies that this rapid expansion is likely to continue in the future under a warming climate. Palms in general, and T. fortunei in particular, are significant bioindicators across continents for present-day climate change and reflect a global signal towards warmer conditions.     

Climatic determinism in phytogeographic regionalization: A test from the Irano-Turanian region,SW and Central Asia

This study investigates the role of climate in determining phytogeographic regions, focusing particularly on the Irano-Turanian floristic region in SW and Central Asia. A set of simple climatic variables and bioclimatic indices were used to prepare climate-space scatter plots and climate diagrams. The climate data were also subjected to multivariate analyses (PCA and Regression tree) in order to develop a bioclimatic characterization of the Irano-Turanian region in comparison with the adjacent Mediterranean, Saharo-Sindian, Euro-Siberian, and Central-Asiatic regions. Phytogeographic regions of SW and Central Asia display distinct bioclimatic spaces with small overlaps. The Irano-Turanian region is differentiated from surrounding regions by continentality, winter temperature, and precipitation seasonality. Continentality is the most important bioclimatic factor in differentiating it from the Mediterranean and Saharo-Sindian regions and is responsible for floristic differences among sub-regions of the Irano-Turanian region. In our case study, the Irano-Turanian region is a nearly independent bioclimatic unit, distinct from its surrounding regions. Hence, it is suggested that the term “Irano-Turanian bioclimate” be used to describe the climate of most of the continental Middle East and Central Asia. Among different sub-regions, the west-central part of this floristic region (“IT2 sub-region”) is a major center of speciation and endemism. Our case study demonstrates that climate is a primary determinant of phytogeographic regionalization. Although modern climate and topography are strong control parameters on the floristic composition and geographical delimitation of the Irano-Turanian region, the complex paleogeographic and paleoclimatic history of SW Asia has also influenced the Tertiary and Quaternary evolution of the Irano-Turanian flora, with additional impacts by the long-lasting historic and present land-use in this region. Many Irano-Turanian montane species are threatened by global warming, and particular conservation measures are needed to protect the Irano-Turanian flora in all sub-regions.     

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub‐Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co‐varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi‐model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late‐century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub‐Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.     

Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor?

Long-term warming of late spring (April–June) air temperatures has been proposed by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J., 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climatic change. Arctic 52, 294–306] as the “ultimate” factor causing earlier sea-ice break-up around western Hudson Bay (WH) that has, in turn, led to the poorer physical and reproductive characteristics of polar bears occupying this region. Derocher et al. [Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Stirling, I., 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr. Comp. Biol. 44, 163–176] expanded the discussion to the whole circumpolar Arctic and concluded that polar bears will unlikely survive as a species should the computer-predicted scenarios for total disappearance of sea-ice in the Arctic come true. We found that spring air temperatures around the Hudson Bay basin for the past 70 years (1932–2002) show no significant warming trend and are more likely identified with the large-amplitude, natural climatic variability that is characteristic of the Arctic. Any role of external forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains difficult to identify. We argue, therefore, that the extrapolation of polar bear disappearance is highly premature. Climate models are simply not skilful for the projection of regional sea-ice changes in Hudson Bay or the whole Arctic. Alternative factors, such as increased human–bear interaction, must be taken into account in a more realistic study and explanation of the population ecology of WH polar bears. Both scientific papers and public discussion that continue to fail to recognize the inherent complexity in the adaptive interaction of polar bears with both human and nature will not likely offer any useful, science-based, preservation and management strategies for the species.     

Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose species

Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese ( Chen caerulescens atlantica ), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989–2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging.     

Global distribution and bioclimatic characterization of alpine biomes

Although there is a general consensus on the distribution and ecological features of terrestrial biomes, the allocation of alpine ecosystems in the global biogeographic system is still unclear. Here, we delineate a global map of alpine areas above the treeline by modelling regional treeline elevation at 30 m resolution, using global forest cover data and quantile regression. We then used global datasets to 1) assess the climatic characteristics of alpine ecosystems using principal component analysis, 2) define bioclimatic groups by an optimized cluster analysis and 3) evaluate patterns of primary productivity based on the normalized difference vegetation index. As defined here, alpine biomes cover 3.56 Mkm² or 2.64% of land outside Antarctica. Despite temperature differences across latitude, these ecosystems converge below a sharp threshold of 5.9°C and towards the colder end of the global climatic space. Below that temperature threshold, alpine ecosystems are influenced by a latitudinal gradient of mean annual temperature and they are climatically differentiated by seasonality and continentality. This gradient delineates a climatic envelope of global alpine biomes around temperate, boreal and tundra biomes as defined in Whittaker's scheme. Although alpine biomes are similarly dominated by poorly vegetated areas, world ecoregions show strong differences in the productivity of their alpine belt irrespectively of major climate zones. These results suggest that vegetation structure and function of alpine ecosystems are driven by regional and local contingencies in addition to macroclimatic factors.     

Phyloclimatic modeling: combining phylogenetics and bioclimatic modeling

We investigate the impact of past climates on plant diversification by tracking the "footprint" of climate change on a phylogenetic tree. Diversity within the cosmopolitan carnivorous plant genus Drosera (Droseraceae) is focused within Mediterranean climate regions. We explore whether this diversity is temporally linked to Mediterranean-type climatic shifts of the mid-Miocene and whether climate preferences are conservative over phylogenetic timescales. Phyloclimatic modeling combines environmental niche (bioclimatic) modeling with phylogenetics in order to study evolutionary patterns in relation to climate change. We present the largest and most complete such example to date using Drosera. The bioclimatic models of extant species demonstrate clear phylogenetic patterns; this is particularly evident for the tuberous sundews from southwestern Australia (subgenus Ergaleium). We employ a method for establishing confidence intervals of node ages on a phylogeny using replicates from a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This chronogram shows that many clades, including subgenus Ergaleium and section Bryastrum, diversified during the establishment of the Mediterranean-type climate. Ancestral reconstructions of bioclimatic models demonstrate a pattern of preference for this climate type within these groups. Ancestral bioclimatic models are projected into palaeo-climate reconstructions for the time periods indicated by the chronogram. We present two such examples that each generate plausible estimates of ancestral lineage distribution, which are similar to their current distributions. This is the first study to attempt bioclimatic projections on evolutionary time scales. The sundews appear to have diversified in response to local climate development. Some groups are specialized for Mediterranean climates, others show wide-ranging generalism. This demonstrates that Phyloclimatic modeling could be repeated for other plant groups and is fundamental to the understanding of evolutionary responses to climate change.     

Plasticity of functional traits varies clinally along a rainfall gradient in Eucalyptus tricarpa

Widespread species often occur across a range of climatic conditions, through a combination of local genetic adaptations and phenotypic plasticity. Species with greater phenotypic plasticity are likely to be better positioned to cope with rapid anthropogenic climate changes, while those displaying strong local adaptations might benefit from translocations to assist the movement of adaptive genes as the climate changes. Eucalyptus tricarpa occurs across a climatic gradient in south‐eastern Australia, a region of increasing aridity, and we hypothesized that this species would display local adaptation to climate. We measured morphological and physiological traits reflecting climate responses in nine provenances from sites of 460 to 1040 mm annual rainfall, in their natural habitat and in common gardens near each end of the gradient. Local adaptation was evident in functional traits and differential growth rates in the common gardens. Some traits displayed complex combinations of plasticity and genetic divergence among provenances, including clinal variation in plasticity itself. Provenances from drier locations were more plastic in leaf thickness, whereas leaf size was more plastic in provenances from higher rainfall locations. Leaf density and stomatal physiology (as indicated by δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) were highly and uniformly plastic. In addition to variation in mean trait values, genetic variation in trait plasticity may play a role in climate adaptation.