Using map algebra to determine the mesoscale distribution of invasive plants: the case of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Celastrus orbiculatus</Emphasis> in Southern Illinois,USA

Since its introduction into North America in the late 19th century, Celastrus orbiculatus (Thumb.) has become a serious ecological threat to native ecosystems. Development of a method to accurately map the occurrence of invasive plants, including C. orbiculatus, would greatly assist in their assessment and control. Using an innovative map regression model, we predicted 85% of presence and absence of C. orbiculatus within our study area. We identify environmental characteristics associated with C. orbiculatus and demonstrate the use of this information to predict occurrence of C. orbiculatus across a broad area in Southern Illinois, USA. Presence and absence information were obtained at sample points within discrete areas of C. orbiculatus occurrence. Forest cover, elevation, slope gradient and aspect, soil pH and texture, distance to nearest road, and potential annual direct incident radiation were recorded for invaded and adjacent non-invaded areas. Presence of oak, elevation, slope gradient, soil pH, soil texture, and distance to road were significant factors associated with the presence or absence of C. orbiculatus. Probability of occurrence of C. orbiculatus was highest on gently sloping interfluves with successional forest canopy not dominated by oak, and less acidic, mesic soil. A logistic regression model was developed and extrapolated over a raster GIS data layer using map algebra to predict current invasion throughout the study area. The model correctly predicted at least 85% occurrence of C. orbiculatus. When combined with logistic regression, map algebra is a potentially powerful tool for evaluating the spatial distribution of invasive plants provided sound statistical principles are applied in extrapolating validated regression models.     

Interactions between seedlings of the invasive tree Ailanthus altissima and the native tree Robinia pseudoacacia under low nutrient conditions

The allelopathic effect of A. altissima and the nitrogen fixing ability of R. pseudoacacia make the interaction between these two species important to community dynamics. A replacement series greenhouse experiment was used to investigate the type of interaction between seedlings of A. altissima and R. pseudoacacia at high and low soil nutrition states. Also, seeds of A. altissima from its native (China) and invasive ranges (USA) were used to compare the effect of the different seed sources on the interaction with R. pseudoacacia. Robinia pseudoacacia was the better competitor. The presence of A. altissima significantly inhibited nodulation of R. pseudoacacia roots. In summary, in low nutrient early succession sites, seedlings of R. pseudoacacia and A. altissima will coexist and R. pseudoacacia will be the better competitor. However, A. altissima can increase its competitive ability by inhibiting nitrogen fixation by R. pseudoacacia. Differences between the competitive ability of the Chinese and US seed lots of A. altissima did not support the rapid evolution theory for invasive species success.     

Native range climate is insufficient to predict anuran invasive potential

Niche conservatism explains biological invasions worldwide. However, a plethora of ecological processes may lead invasive species to occupy environments that are different from those found within native ranges. Here, we assess the potential invadable areas of  the world’s most pervasive invasive amphibians: the cane toad, Rhinella marina?+?R. horribilis, and the North American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus. The uncontrolled spread of such voracious, large-bodied, and disease-tolerant anurans has been documented to impact native faunas worldwide. To disentangle their invasion-related niche dynamics, we compared the predictive ability and distributional forecasts of ecological niche models calibrated with information from native, invaded and pooled (native?+?invaded) ranges. We found that including occurrences from invaded ranges improved model accuracy for both studied species. Non-native occurrences also accounted for 54% and 61% increase in the total area of potential distribution of the cane toad and bullfrog, respectively. Besides, the latter species occupied locations with climatic conditions that are more extreme than those found within its native range. Our results indicate that the occupancy of environments different from those found in native ranges increases the overall potential distribution of the studied invasive anuran species. Therefore, climate information on native ranges alone is insufficient to explain and anticipate the distributional patterns of invasion of cane toads and bullfrogs, underestimating predictions of potential invadable distribution. Moreover, such an observed expansion of realized niches towards occupancy of climates not found within native ranges also has clear implications for invasion risk assessments based on climate modelling worldwide.

     

Germination and early growth of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ailanthus</Emphasis> and tulip poplar in three levels of forest disturbance

Increasing rates of forest disturbance may provide greater opportunity for invasion of nonnative species, thereby altering the successional trajectory of native plant communities. In the eastern U.S., invasive Ailanthus altissima and native Liriodendron tulipifera have similar life histories and niches and often co-occur. To examine how disturbance affects the establishment of these species, we performed field experiments to evaluate the response of sown seeds and transplanted seedlings to three levels of disturbance on north- and south-facing aspects. L.␣tulipifera germination was severely limited by low seed viability and had significantly lower germination than A. altissima in all sites. The effect of disturbance regime on A. altissima germination depended on aspect in the second growing season. In contrast, mean seedling survival, biomass, leaf area and leaf area ratio were greater for L. tulipifera in all field sites. Overall, the north-facing selective cut forest provided a disproportionately large number of suitable microsites for L. tulipifera establishment. Collectively, this study demonstrated that different timber harvest practices produce heterogeneous mosaics of suitable microsites for germination and establishment. Limited L. tulipifera germination may be a serious constraint to population establishment if seeds are deposited for the first time immediately after a disturbance event. However, if sufficient viable seeds of both species exist, L. tulipifera out-performs the invasive in the first two years following disturbance. This may explain why A. altissima has shown explosive population growth in a limited number of sites in the past century.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest‐restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo‐presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real‐presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo‐presence data. Using real‐presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

Using presence‐only modelling to predict Asian elephant habitat use in a tropical forest landscape: implications for conservation

Aim Asian elephants, Elephas maximus, are threatened throughout their range by a combination of logging, large scale forest conversion and conflict with humans. We investigate which environmental factors, both biotic and abiotic, constrain the current distribution of elephants. A spatially explicit habitat model is constructed to find core areas for conservation and to assess current threats. Location Ulu Masen Ecosystem in the province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia. Methods A stratified survey was conducted at 12 sites (300 transects) to establish the presence of elephants. Presence records formed the basis to model potential habitat use. Ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) is used to describe their niche and to identify key factors shaping elephant distribution. An initial niche model was constructed to describe elephant niche structure, and a second model focused on identifying core areas only. To assess the threat of habitat encroachment, overlap between the elephants’ optimal niche and the occurrence of forest encroachment is computed. Results Elephants were recorded throughout the study area from sea level to 1600 m a.s.l. The results show that the elephant niche and consequently habitat use markedly deviates from the available environment. Elephant presence was positively related to forest cover and vegetation productivity, and elephants were largely confined to valleys. A spatially explicit model showed that elephants mainly utilize forest edges. Forest encroachment occurs throughout the elephants range and was found within 80% of the elephants’ ecological niche. Main conclusions In contrast to general opinion, elephant distribution proved to be weakly constrained by altitude, possibly because of movement routes running through mountainous areas. Elephants were often found to occupy habitat patches in and near human‐dominated areas. This pattern is believed to reflect the displacement of elephants from their former habitat.     

Thermal physiology explains the elevational range for a lizard,Eutropis longicaudata,in Taiwan

1The decrease of temperatures along an elevation gradient imposes physiological constraints on reptiles that ultimately determine their distribution ranges. Forest patterns are likely to interact with this process, but very few studies have examined their contribution in determining distribution limits.2We examined the role played by thermal physiology and forest cover in determining the elevational ranges of a lizard, Eutropis longicaudata. We integrated this species’ thermal traits in simulating its maximum activity time under different conditions of forest cover and elevation using a NicheMapR model. In addition, we evaluated the influence of winter temperatures on the range limit by examining the simulated soil temperatures at the occurrence sites.3Laboratory experiments showed that E. longicaudata has a high preferred body temperature and low cold tolerance. The model predicts that maximum activity time decreases with elevation and forest cover. Although unforested areas may provide longer active time in all simulated elevations, mountain areas in Taiwan are heavily forested and are predicted to allow only a very short period of activity above 1000 m elevation.4All sightings were indeed located in areas below 1000 m elevation, in which the predicted average soil temperature is above 10 °C in January in cold years.5Our results show that reptile physiological response does respond strongly to the change of microclimate induced by forest cover and elevation. Overall, this suggests that forest cover is a major determinant of some reptiles’ elevational range.     

Modeling Potential Distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes Virus (Genus: Hantavirus) Reservoir, in Argentina

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.     

Combined modelling of distribution and niche in invasion biology: a case study of two invasive Tetramorium ant species

Spatial modelling of species distributions has become an important tool in the study of biological invasions. Here, we examine the utility of combining distribution and ecological niche modelling for retrieving information on invasion processes, based on species occurrence data from native and introduced ranges. Specifically, we discuss questions, concerning (1) the global potential to spread to other ranges, (2) the potential to spread within established invasions, (3) the detectability of niche differences across ranges, and (4) the ability to infer invasion history through data from the introduced range. We apply this approach to two congeneric pavement ants, Tetramorium sp.E (formerly T. caespitum (Linnaeus 1758)) and T. tsushimae Emery 1925, both introduced to North America. We identify (1) the potential of both species to inhabit ranges worldwide, and (2) the potential of T. sp.E and T. tsushimae, to spread to 23 additional US states and to five provinces of Canada, and to 24 additional US states and to one province of Canada, respectively. We confirm that (3) niche modelling can be an effective tool to detect niche shifts, identifying an increased width of T. sp.E and a decreased width of T. tsushimae following introduction, with potential changes in niche position for both species. We make feasible that (4) combined modelling could become an auxiliary tool to reconstruct invasion history, hypothesizing admixture following multiple introductions in North America for T. sp.E, and a single introduction to North America from central Japan, for T. tsushimae. Combined modelling represents a rapid means to formulate testable explanatory hypotheses on invasion patterns and helps approach a standard in predictive invasion research.     

Potential distribution of Mexican primates: modeling the ecological niche with the maximum entropy algorithm

We developed a potential distribution model for the tropical rain forest species of primates of southern Mexico: the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), the mantled howler monkey (Alouatta palliata), and the spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi). To do so, we applied the maximum entropy algorithm from the ecological niche modeling program MaxEnt. For each species, we used occurrence records from scientific collections, and published and unpublished sources, and we also used the 19 environmental coverage variables related to precipitation and temperature from WorldClim to develop the models. The predicted distribution of A. pigra was strongly associated with the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (23.6%), whereas the potential distributions of A. palliata and A. geoffroyi were strongly associated with precipitation during the coldest quarter (52.2 and 34.3% respectively). The potential distribution of A. geoffroyi is broader than that of the Alouatta spp. The areas with the greatest probability of presence of A. pigra and A. palliata are strongly associated with riparian vegetation, whereas the presence of A. geoffroyi is more strongly associated with the presence of rain forest. Our most significant contribution is the identification of areas with a high probability of the presence of these primate species, which is information that can be applied to planning future studies and then establishing criteria for the creation of areas to primate conservation in Mexico.     

Selecting Biological Meaningful Environmental Dimensions of Low Discrepancy among Ranges to Predict Potential Distribution of Bean Plataspid Invasion

Background

The Bean plataspid (Megacopta cribraria) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species in North America; its potential spread to soybean producing areas in the US is of great concern. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used increasingly in predicting invasive species'' potential distribution; however, poor niche model transferability was sometimes reported, leading to the artifactual conclusion of niche differentiation during species'' invasion.

Methodology/Principals

We aim to improve the geographical transferability of ENM via environmental variable selection to predict the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion. Sixteen environmental dimensions between native and introduced Bean plataspid populations were compared, and classified into two datasets with different degrees of discrepancy by the interquartile range (IQR) overlap in boxplot. Niche models based on these two datasets were compared in native model prediction and invading model projection. Classical niche model approaches (i.e., model calibrated on native range and transferred outside) were used to anticipate the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion.

Conclusions/Significance

Niche models based on the two datasets showed little difference in native model predictions; however, when projecting onto the introduced area, models based on the environmental datasets showing low discrepancy among ranges recovered good model transferability in predicting the newly established population of Bean plataspid in the US. Recommendations were made for selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to improve niche model transferability among these geographically separated areas. Outside of its native range, areas with invasion potential include the southeastern US in North America, southwestern Europe, southeastern South America, southern Africa, and the eastern coastal Australia.     

Ecologically heterogeneous populations of the invasive ant Wasmannia auropunctata within its native and introduced ranges

Abstract 1. The biology of most invasive species in their native geographical areas remains largely unknown. Such studies are, however, crucial in shedding light on the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying biological invasions. 2. The present study focuses on the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata, a species native to Central and South America that has been widely introduced and which has become invasive throughout the tropics. We characterise and compare several ecological traits of native populations in French Guiana with those in one of its introduced ranges, New Caledonia. 3. We found ecologically heterogeneous populations of W. auropunctata coexisting in the species’ native geographical area. First, we found populations restricted to naturally perturbed areas (particularly floodplains) within the primary forest, and absent from the surrounding forest areas. These populations were characterised by low nest and worker densities. Second, we found dominant populations in recent anthropogenic areas (e.g. secondary forest or forest edge along road) characterised by high nest and worker densities, and associated with low ant species richness. The local dominance of W. auropunctata in such areas can be due to the displacement of other species (cause) or the filling‐up of empty habitats unsuitable to other ants (effect). With respect to their demographic features and ant species richness, the populations of native anthropogenic habitats were to a large extent similar to the invasive populations introduced into remote areas. 4. The results point to the need for greater research efforts to better understand the ecological and demographic features of invasive species within their native ranges.     

Predicting effects of large‐scale reforestation on native and exotic birds

Aim

Ecological restoration is critical for recovering biodiversity and ecosystem services, yet designing interventions to achieve particular outcomes remains fraught with challenges. In the extensive regions where non‐native species are firmly established, it is unlikely that historical conditions can be fully reinstated. To what degree, and how rapidly, can human‐dominated areas be shifted via restoration into regimes that benefit target species, communities or processes?

Location

We explore this question in a >20‐year‐old reforestation effort underway at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge in montane Hawaii. This large‐scale planting of Acacia koa trees is designed to secure populations of globally threatened bird species by transitioning the site rapidly from pasture to native forest.

Methods

We surveyed all forest birds in multiple corridors of young planted trees, remnant corridors of mature trees along gulches and at sites within mature forest. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we identified which factors (distance from forest, habitat type and surrounding tree cover) had the most important influence on native and exotic bird abundance in the reforestation area.

Results

We found that 90% of native and exotic bird species responded quickly, occupying corridors of native trees approximately a decade after planting. However, native and exotic forest birds responded to markedly different characteristics of the reforested area. Native bird abundance was strongly predicted by proximity to mature forest and remnant corridors; conversely, exotic bird abundance was best predicted by overall tree cover throughout the area reforested.

Main conclusions

Our results demonstrate that large‐scale tree planting in corridors adjacent to mature forest can catalyse rapid recovery (both increased abundance and expanded distribution) of forest birds and that it is possible to design reforestation to benefit native species in novel ecosystems.

     

Far from the madding crowd: Tolerance toward human disturbance shapes distribution and connectivity patterns of closely related Martes spp.

To assess niche overlap between the most similar European sympatric carnivores, the pine marten Martes martes and stone marten Martes foina, and outline their potential distributions and connectivity corridors in Central Italy, we applied a multivariate kernel density procedure which allowed to assess both species' ecological hypervolumes based on a set of 16 environmental predictors and used the resulting probability of occurrence map as a resistance surface in electrical circuit theory-based models. Distance to watercourses and percent cover of deciduous forest and shrubland were the most relevant factors shaping pine marten ecological niche, while stone marten distribution was mainly shaped by human population density and cover of both human settlements and deciduous forest. Overlap between the hypervolumes of the two martens was low-to-moderate, while, on average, landscape connectivity was higher for the stone marten. The inclusion in the models of human disturbance-related variables enabled to define a possible mechanism driving habitat partitioning in human-altered landscapes. Based on our results, increasing human density and urbanization of European lowland and hilly landscapes are expected to represent a greater threat to the pine marten than the stone marten.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Quantitative prediction of the distribution and abundance of Vaccinium myrtillus with climatic and edaphic factors

Question: Can the distribution and abundance of Vaccinium myrtillus be reasonably predicted with soil nutritional and climatic factors? Location: Forests of France. Methods: We used Braun‐Blanquet abundance/dominance information for Vaccinium myrtillus on 2905 forest sites extracted from the phyto‐ecological database EcoPlant, to characterize the species ecological response to climatic and edaphic factors and to predict its cover/abundance at the national scale. The link between cover/abundance of the species and climatic (65 monthly and annual predictors concerning temperature, precipitation, radiation, potential evapotranspiration, water balance) and edaphic (two predictors: soil pH and C:N ratio) factors was investigated with proportional odds models. We evaluated the quality of our model with 9830 independent relevés extracted from Sophy, a large phytosociological database for France. Results: In France, Vaccinium myrtillus is at the southern limit of its European geographic range and three environmental factors (mean annual temperature, soil pH and C:N ratio) allow prediction of its distribution and abundance in forests with high success rates. The species reveals a preference for colder sites (especially mountains) and nutritionally poor soils (low pH and high C:N ratio). A predictive map of its geographic range reveals that the main potential habitats are mountains and northwestern France. The potential habitats with maximal expected abundance are the Vosges and the Massif central mountains, which are both acidic mountains. Conclusions: Complete niche models including climate and soil nutritional conditions allow an improvement of the spatial prediction of plant species abundance at a broad scale. The use of soil nutritional variables in distribution models further leads to an improvement in the prediction of plant species habitats within their geographical range.     

Assessing the areas under risk of invasion within islands through potential distribution modelling: The case of Pittosporum undulatum in São Miguel, Azores

Non-indigenous plant species have been frequently reported as successful invaders in island environments, changing plant community composition and structure. This is the case of the sweet pittosporum (Pittosporum undulatum), native from Australia, which is one of the most successful plant invaders in the Azores archipelago. Data extracted from recent forestry inventories were used to model and map the potential distribution of P. undulatum in São Miguel, the larger island of the Azores. Current distribution of P. undulatum is related to climate, altitude and some human activity effects. Further analysis of the areas under risk of invasion showed that protected areas are under potential threat, although only a few native forest remnants seem to be threatened due to future expansion of P. undulatum, since the current distribution of these native communities has been reduced due to clearing and competition with invasive plants. We discuss the threats that any further expansion of the species will represent for low-altitude native forests, as well as the utility of species distribution models in the assessment of the areas under risk of invasion.     

Habitat invasion risk assessment based on Landsat 5 data,exemplified by the shrub Rosa rubiginosa in southern Argentina

Prediction of invasive species spread helps to plan management actions. We performed a risk assessment by quantifying habitat invasibility, predicted the potential distribution of an invasive species using the Maxent modelling program and confirmed patterns using detailed field studies. Our study was conducted in southern Argentina, Patagonia, where large areas are already invaded by the European shrub Rosa rubiginosa. A total of 163 R. rubiginosa locations served as ground truth data, and predictors were obtained from the spaceborne sensor Landsat 5. Based on the Maxent Method (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.8), the habitat invasibility map covered about 5000 km². Our model revealed that R. rubiginosa has the potential to invade 36% of the area along a steep precipitation gradient (target region 600–1400 mm per year). The Tasseled Cap brightness index and the normalized vegetation index explained most of the variance in our model, followed by the Tasseled Cap greenness and wetness indices, which can be interpreted as indicators of disturbance. Highest levels of invasibility were predicted for urban areas, along roads and rivers, on pastures, in Austrocedrus chilensis forests and inside Nothofagus dombeyi forest gaps. Detailed field assessments of rose cover performed in seven habitat types supported these results: rose cover significantly decreased with increasing tree cover (P < 0.01). Our data revealed that the occurrence of R. rubiginosa is not connected to a certain habitat type, but that it thrives in open patches following habitat disturbance. Our approach is a widely applicable, cost‐free remote sensing method that can serve as a risk assessment tool for alien plant species invasion of habitats.     

Potential spatial interaction of the invasive species Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) with native and endemic coccinellids

Biological invasions represent a serious menace to local species assemblages, mainly due to interspecific relationships such as competition and predation. One important invasive species worldwide is Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), which has invaded many regions of the world, threatening the native and endemic coccinellid assemblages due to negative interspecific interactions. These interactions have been widely studied at a local scale, but have been less studied at regional scales. Our aim was to estimate and analyse the potential spatial interaction associated with the co‐occurrence of H. axyridis with native and endemic species in Chile, considering bioclimatic and land cover variables. First, we created species distribution models (SDM) for H. axyridis, native and endemic coccinellids and six representative coccinellid species using maximum entropy technique. Then, we overlapped each SDM with land cover types to estimate the bioclimatic suitability within each land cover type. Finally, we identified the co‐occurrences of organisms according to the SDM and the land cover types, estimating in what land covers H. axyridis and the other coccinellids are more likely to co‐occur. Our results show that the suitable area for H. axyridis occurs from 30° to 42°S in Chile, while for native and endemic species this area is greater. The six selected species are mainly concentrated in central Chile, but differ in their potential suitable areas; Adalia angulifera Mulsant and Scymnus bicolor (Germain) have the largest range, and Mimoscymnus macula (Germain) has the most restricted one. The highest level of potential spatial interactions with H. axyridis occurs in central Chile, specifically in croplands and scrublands, and the lowest in primary native forest for all the species. Our results provide a spatially explicit baseline for coccinellid conservation and management of this invasive species.