Flexible maximum likelihood methods for bivariate proportional hazards models

This article presents methodology for multivariate proportional hazards (PH) regression models. The methods employ flexible piecewise constant or spline specifications for baseline hazard functions in either marginal or conditional PH models, along with assumptions about the association among lifetimes. Because the models are parametric, ordinary maximum likelihood can be applied; it is able to deal easily with such data features as interval censoring or sequentially observed lifetimes, unlike existing semiparametric methods. A bivariate Clayton model (1978, Biometrika 65, 141-151) is used to illustrate the approach taken. Because a parametric assumption about association is made, efficiency and robustness comparisons are made between estimation based on the bivariate Clayton model and "working independence" methods that specify only marginal distributions for each lifetime variable.     

Global stability for cholera epidemic models

Cholera is a water and food borne infectious disease caused by the gram-negative bacterium, Vibrio cholerae. Its dynamics are highly complex owing to the coupling among multiple transmission pathways and different factors in pathogen ecology. Although various mathematical models and clinical studies published in recent years have made important contribution to cholera epidemiology, our knowledge of the disease mechanism remains incomplete at present, largely due to the limited understanding of the dynamics of cholera. In this paper, we conduct global stability analysis for several deterministic cholera epidemic models. These models, incorporating both human population and pathogen V. cholerae concentration, constitute four-dimensional non-linear autonomous systems where the classical Poincaré-Bendixson theory is not applicable. We employ three different techniques, including the monotone dynamical systems, the geometric approach, and Lyapunov functions, to investigate the endemic global stability for several biologically important cases. The analysis and results presented in this paper make building blocks towards a comprehensive study and deeper understanding of the fundamental mechanism in cholera dynamics.     

Bayesian latent variable models for mixed discrete outcomes

In studies of complex health conditions, mixtures of discrete outcomes (event time, count, binary, ordered categorical) are commonly collected. For example, studies of skin tumorigenesis record latency time prior to the first tumor, increases in the number of tumors at each week, and the occurrence of internal tumors at the time of death. Motivated by this application, we propose a general underlying Poisson variable framework for mixed discrete outcomes, accommodating dependency through an additive gamma frailty model for the Poisson means. The model has log-linear, complementary log-log, and proportional hazards forms for count, binary and discrete event time outcomes, respectively. Simple closed form expressions can be derived for the marginal expectations, variances, and correlations. Following a Bayesian approach to inference, conditionally-conjugate prior distributions are chosen that facilitate posterior computation via an MCMC algorithm. The methods are illustrated using data from a Tg.AC mouse bioassay study.     

The analysis of dependence in cross-classifications having ordered categories, using log-linear models for frequencies and log-linear models for odds

To analyse the dependence of a qualitative (dichotomous or polytomous) response variable upon one or more qualitative explanatory variables, log-linear models for frequencies are compared with log-linear models for odds, when the categories of the response variable are ordered and the categories of each explanatory variable may be either ordered or unordered. The log-linear models for odds express the odds (or log odds) pertaining to adjacent response categories in terms of appropriate multiplicative (or additive) factors. These models include the 'null log-odds model', the 'uniform log-odds model', the 'parallel log-odds model', and other log-linear models for the odds. With these models, the dependence of the response variable (with ordered categories) can be analyzed in a manner analogous to the usual multiple regression analysis and related analysis of variance and analysis of covariance. Application of log-linear models for the odds sheds light on earlier applications of log-linear models for the frequencies in contingency tables with ordered categories.     

From continuum Fokker-Planck models to discrete kinetic models

Two theoretical formalisms are widely used in modeling mechanochemical systems such as protein motors: continuum Fokker-Planck models and discrete kinetic models. Both have advantages and disadvantages. Here we present a "finite volume" procedure to solve Fokker-Planck equations. The procedure relates the continuum equations to a discrete mechanochemical kinetic model while retaining many of the features of the continuum formulation. The resulting numerical algorithm is a generalization of the algorithm developed previously by Fricks, Wang, and Elston through relaxing the local linearization approximation of the potential functions, and a more accurate treatment of chemical transitions. The new algorithm dramatically reduces the number of numerical cells required for a prescribed accuracy. The kinetic models constructed in this fashion retain some features of the continuum potentials, so that the algorithm provides a systematic and consistent treatment of mechanical-chemical responses such as load-velocity relations, which are difficult to capture with a priori kinetic models. Several numerical examples are given to illustrate the performance of the method.     

Tests of significance using regression models for ordered categorical data

Regression models of the type proposed by McCullagh (1980, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 42, 109-142) are a general and powerful method of analyzing ordered categorical responses, assuming categorization of an (unknown) continuous response of a specified distribution type. Tests of significance with these models are generally based on likelihood-ratio statistics that have asymptotic chi 2 distributions; therefore, investigators with small data sets may be concerned with the small-sample behavior of these tests. In a Monte Carlo sampling study, significance tests based on the ordinal model are found to be powerful, but a modified test procedure (using an F distribution with a finite number of degrees of freedom for the denominator) is suggested such that the empirical significance level agrees more closely with the nominal significance level in small-sample situations. We also discuss the parallels between an ordinal regression model assuming underlying normality and conventional multiple regression. We illustrate the model with two data sets: one from a study investigating the relationship between phosphorus in soil and plant-available phosphorus in corn grown in that soil, and the other from a clinical trial comparing analgesic drugs.     

Phase computations and phase models for discrete molecular oscillators

Background

Biochemical oscillators perform crucial functions in cells, e.g., they set up circadian clocks. The dynamical behavior of oscillators is best described and analyzed in terms of the scalar quantity, phase. A rigorous and useful definition for phase is based on the so-called isochrons of oscillators. Phase computation techniques for continuous oscillators that are based on isochrons have been used for characterizing the behavior of various types of oscillators under the influence of perturbations such as noise.

Results

In this article, we extend the applicability of these phase computation methods to biochemical oscillators as discrete molecular systems, upon the information obtained from a continuous-state approximation of such oscillators. In particular, we describe techniques for computing the instantaneous phase of discrete, molecular oscillators for stochastic simulation algorithm generated sample paths. We comment on the accuracies and derive certain measures for assessing the feasibilities of the proposed phase computation methods. Phase computation experiments on the sample paths of well-known biological oscillators validate our analyses.

Conclusions

The impact of noise that arises from the discrete and random nature of the mechanisms that make up molecular oscillators can be characterized based on the phase computation techniques proposed in this article. The concept of isochrons is the natural choice upon which the phase notion of oscillators can be founded. The isochron-theoretic phase computation methods that we propose can be applied to discrete molecular oscillators of any dimension, provided that the oscillatory behavior observed in discrete-state does not vanish in a continuous-state approximation. Analysis of the full versatility of phase noise phenomena in molecular oscillators will be possible if a proper phase model theory is developed, without resorting to such approximations.     

Persistence in discrete age-structured population models

Survival analyses of populations are developed in dicrete growth processes. Persistence and extinction attributes of age-structured discrete population models are explored on both a finite and infinite time horizon. Conditions for persistence and extinction are found. Decompositions of the initial population size axes into intervals where populations are persistent at timeN and intervals leading to extinction at timen, wheren≤N, are given for two age class discrete population models.     

Stability of discrete one-dimensional population models

We give conditions for local and global stability of discrete one-dimensional population models. We give a new test for local stability when the derivative is −1. We give several sufficient conditions for global stability. We use these conditions to show that local and global stability coincide for the usual models from the literature and even for slightly more complicated models. We give population models, which are in some sense the simplest models, for which local and global stability do not coincide.