Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends,forecasts, and implications for climate change in Témiscamingue,Québec

Questions: What climate variables best explain fire occurrence and area burned in the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest of Canada? How will climate change influence these climate variables and thereby affect the occurrence of fire and area burned in a deciduous forest landscape in Témiscamingue, Québec, Canada? Location: West central Québec and the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We first used an information‐theoretic framework to evaluate the relative role of different weather variables in explaining occurrence and area burned of large fires (>200 ha, 1959‐1999) across the Great Lakes‐St Lawrence forest region. Second, we examined how these weather variables varied historically in Témiscamingue and, third, how they may change between the present and 2100 according to different scenarios of climate change based on two Global Circulation Models. Results: Mean monthly temperature maxima during the fire season (Apr‐Oct) and weighted sequences of dry spells best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Between 1910 and 2004, mean monthly temperature maxima in Témiscamingue showed no apparent temporal trend, while dry spell sequences decreased in frequency and length. All future scenarios show an increase in mean monthly temperature maxima, and one model scenario forecasts an increase in dry spell sequences, resulting in a slight increase in forecasted annual area burned. Conclusion: Despite the forecasted increase in fire activity, effects of climate change on fire will not likely affect forest structure and composition as much as natural succession or harvesting and other disturbances, principally because of the large relative difference in area affected by these processes.     

Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are based on coarse‐grained climate surfaces or idealized scenarios of uniform warming. These predictions may erroneously estimate the risk of extinction because they neglect to consider spatially heterogenous warming at the landscape scale or identify refugia where species can persist despite unfavourable regional climate. To address this issue, we investigated the heterogeneity in warming that has occurred in a 10 km × 10 km area from 1972 to 2007. We developed estimates by combining long‐term daily observations from a limited number of weather stations with a more spatially comprehensive dataset (40 sites) obtained during 2005–2006. We found that the spatial distribution of warming was greater inland, at lower elevations, away from streams, and at sites exposed to the northwest (NW). These differences corresponded with changes in weather patterns, such as an increasing frequency of hot, dry NW winds. As plant species were biased in the topographic and geographic locations they occupied, these differences meant that some species experienced more warming than others, and are at greater risk from climate change. This species bias could not be detected at coarser scales. The uneven seasonal nature of warming (e.g. more warming in winter, minimums increased more than maximums) means that climate change predictions will vary according to which predictors are selected in species distribution models. Models based on a limited set of predictors will produce erroneous predictions when the correct limiting factor is not selected, and this is difficult to avoid when temperature predictors are correlated because they are produced using elevation‐sensitive interpolations. The results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse‐grained (∼50 km) temperature surfaces, and suggest that the accuracy of this process could be improved by considering regional weather patterns (wind speed, direction, humidity) and topographic exposure to key wind directions.     

The influence of landscape,climate and history on spatial genetic patterns in keystone plants (Azorella) on sub‐Antarctic islands

The distribution of genetic variation in species is governed by factors that act differently across spatial scales. To tease apart the contribution of different processes, especially at intermediate spatial scales, it is useful to study simple ecosystems such as those on sub‐Antarctic oceanic islands. In this study, we characterize spatial genetic patterns of two keystone plant species, Azorella selago on sub‐Antarctic Marion Island and Azorella macquariensis on sub‐Antarctic Macquarie Island. Although both islands experience a similar climate and have a similar vegetation structure, they differ significantly in topography and geological history. We genotyped six microsatellites for 1,149 individuals from 123 sites across Marion Island and 372 individuals from 42 sites across Macquarie Island. We tested for spatial patterns in genetic diversity, including correlation with elevation and vegetation type, and clines in different directional bearings. We also examined genetic differentiation within islands, isolation‐by‐distance with and without accounting for direction, and signals of demographic change. Marion Island was found to have a distinct northwest–southeast divide, with lower genetic diversity and more sites with a signal of population expansion in the northwest. We attribute this to asymmetric seed dispersal by the dominant northwesterly winds, and to population persistence in a southwestern refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum. No apparent spatial pattern, but greater genetic diversity and differentiation between sites, was found on Macquarie Island, which may be due to the narrow length of the island in the direction of the dominant winds and longer population persistence permitted by the lack of extensive glaciation on the island. Together, our results clearly illustrate the implications of island shape and geography, and the importance of direction‐dependent drivers, in shaping spatial genetic structure.     

Additive partitioning of butterfly diversity in a fragmented landscape: importance of scale and implications for conservation

Aim Most of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil occurs in fragments of various sizes. Previous studies indicate that forest fragmentation affects fruit‐feeding butterflies. Conservation strategies that seek to preserve organisms that are distributed in high‐fragmented biomes need to understand the spatial distribution of these organisms across the landscape. In view of the importance of understanding the fauna of these forest remnants, the objective of the present work is to investigate the extent to which the diversity of this group varies across spatial scales ranging from within‐forest patches to between landscapes. Location South America, south‐eastern Brazil, São Paulo State. Methods We used bait traps to sample fruit feeding butterflies at 50 points in 10 fragments in two different landscapes during a period of 12 months. Total species richness and Shannon index were partitioned additively in diversity at trap level, and beta diversity was calculated among traps, among forest patches, and between landscapes. We used permutation tests to compare these values to the expected ones under the null hypothesis that beta diversity is only a random sampling effect. Results There was significant beta diversity at the smallest scale examined; however, the significance at higher scales depends on the diversity measurement used. Beta diversity with Shannon index was smaller than expected by chance among fragments, whereas species richness was not. Among landscapes, only beta diversity in richness was higher than expected by chance. Main conclusions The results observed occur because there is great variability in species composition among forest patches in the same landscape, changing this diversity even though the communities are formed from the same pool of species. At the largest scale evaluated (between landscapes), these pattern changes and differences in beta diversity in richness were detectable. This difference is probably caused by the presence of rare species. Thus, a conservation strategy that seeks to preserve as many species as possible per unit of area in high‐fragmented biomes should give priority to protecting fragments in different landscapes, rather than more fragments in the same landscape.     

Large‐scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands: The role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change

In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60‐year periods (2020–2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 × 250 m²) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.     

The role of landscape texture in conservation biogeography: a case study on birds in south-eastern Australia

The binary classification of landscapes into suitable vs. unsuitable areas underlies several prominent theories in conservation biogeography. However, a binary classification is not always appropriate. The textural discontinuity hypothesis provides an alternative theoretical framework to examine the geographical distribution of species, and does not rely on a binary classification scheme. The texture of a given landscape is the combination of its vertical structural complexity and horizontal spatial grain. The textural discontinuity hypothesis states that biophysical features in the environment are scaled in a discontinuous way, and that discontinuities in the body size distribution of animals mirror these biophysical discontinuities. As a result of this relationship, a complex landscape texture should be associated with small‐bodied animals, whereas a simple landscape texture should be associated with larger‐bodied animals. We examined this hypothesis for birds in five landscapes in south‐eastern Australia that represented a gradient from simple to complex landscape texture. In landscapes with a complex texture, the number of detections of small birds was higher than expected, and the number of detections of larger‐bodied birds was lower than expected. The opposite pattern was found in landscapes with a simple texture. The pattern remained significant when only bird species found in each of the five landscapes were considered, which demonstrated that the association of landscape texture with body size was not an artefact of landscapes differing in their species pools. Understanding the effects of landscape texture on species distribution patterns may be a promising research frontier for conservation biogeography. We hypothesize that the active management of landscape texture may be used to attract or deter animals of certain body sizes. Consistent with other theories, the textural discontinuity hypothesis therefore suggests that managing entire landscapes, rather than only predefined patches, is an important conservation strategy.     

Diversity of management practices required to ensure conservation of rare and locally threatened plant species in grasslands: a case study at a regional scale (Lorraine, France)

The Lorraine region, in northeast France, harbours 77 protected plantspecies whose main localities are in grasslands. About 80% of them are very rareor rare (less than 15 localities) in that territory and are threatened by changes inagriculture. These species occur in a large range of grassland habitats,reflecting variability of climatic, hydrological and edaphic parameters, butalso of agricultural practices. A more precise analysis of managementrequirements was carried out for seven of these species, Euphorbiapalustris, Aster amellus, Pulsatillaalba, Carex hordeistichos, Thalictrumminus ssp. majus, Botrychiummatricariifolium and Ophioglossum vulgatum, whichwere represented on a triangle whose corners correspond to grazing, cutting andno or very low exploitation. It confirmed the large diversity of managementpractices required to ensure conservation of rare and threatened grassland plantspecies, even at a local level. These appropriate conservation measures havetherefore to be carried out or, at least, monitored by specialized natureconservation organizations.     

Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin

We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub‐basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)‐listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations – singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes to existing water resource policy. Flows for four sub‐basins were modeled using the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) under historical and projected conditions of 2020 and 2040 for each scenario. Results indicate that Yakima will be the most flow‐limited sub‐basin with average reductions in streamflow of 41% under climate conditions of 2020 and 56% under 2040 conditions; 1.3–2.5 times greater than those of other sub‐basins. In addition, irrigation plays a key role in the hydrology of the Yakima sub‐basin – with flow reductions ranging from 78% to 90% under severe to extreme (i.e., 20–40%) increases in agricultural water use (2.0–4.4 times the reductions in the other sub‐basins). The Yakima and Okanogan sub‐basins are the most responsive to simulations of flow‐bolstering policy change (providing salmon with first priority water allocation and at biologically relevant flows), as demonstrated by 91–100% target flows attained. The Wenatchee and Methow sub‐basins do not exhibit similar responsiveness to simulated policy changes. Considering climate change only, we conclude that flow restoration should be prioritized first in the Yakima and Wenatchee sub‐basins, and second in the Okanogan and Methow. Considering both climate change and possible policy changes, we recommend that the Yakima sub‐basin receive the highest priority for flow restoration activities to sustain critical instream habitat for ESA‐listed salmonids.     

Evolutionary dynamics of quantitative variation in an adaptive trait at the regional scale: The case of zinc hyperaccumulation in Arabidopsis halleri

Metal hyperaccumulation in plants is an ecological trait whose biological significance remains debated, in particular because the selective pressures that govern its evolutionary dynamics are complex. One of the possible causes of quantitative variation in hyperaccumulation may be local adaptation to metalliferous soils. Here, we explored the population genetic structure of Arabidopsis halleri at fourteen metalliferous and nonmetalliferous sampling sites in southern Poland. The results were integrated with a quantitative assessment of variation in zinc hyperaccumulation to trace local adaptation. We identified a clear hierarchical structure with two distinct genetic groups at the upper level of clustering. Interestingly, these groups corresponded to different geographic subregions, rather than to ecological types (i.e., metallicolous vs. nonmetallicolous). Also, approximate Bayesian computation analyses suggested that the current distribution of A. halleri in southern Poland could be relictual as a result of habitat fragmentation caused by climatic shifts during the Holocene, rather than due to recent colonization of industrially polluted sites. In addition, we find evidence that some nonmetallicolous lowland populations may have actually derived from metallicolous populations. Meanwhile, the distribution of quantitative variation in zinc hyperaccumulation did separate metallicolous and nonmetallicolous accessions, indicating more recent adaptive evolution and diversifying selection between metalliferous and nonmetalliferous habitats. This suggests that zinc hyperaccumulation evolves both ways—towards higher levels at nonmetalliferous sites and lower levels at metalliferous sites. Our results open a new perspective on possible evolutionary relationships between A. halleri edaphic types that may inspire future genetic studies of quantitative variation in metal hyperaccumulation.     

不同尺度景观空间分异特征对水体质量的影响——以深圳市西丽水库流域为例

由于景观格局对水体质量的影响是依赖于研究尺度、并且随着时间尺度和空间尺度的变化而变化的,因此探讨不同尺度上景观格局变化对水质的影响程度具有重要的研究价值。从深圳市水库流域水环境保护的需求出发,选择西丽水库及其汇水子流域为研究对象,以陈利顶等提出的景观空间负荷对比指数分析方法为基础,区分高度、坡度和距离3个空间要素计算了分区和累积景观空间负荷对比指数,继而利用该指数对比分析了不同时空尺度上“源”“汇”景观空间分异特征变化对水质的影响程度。研究结果表明,不同尺度上的景观空间分异特征可以显著影响“源”“汇”景观在非点源污染输出和削减方面贡献程度的对比关系,从而影响水体质量。由于不同尺度上景观空间分异特征的复杂性以及“源”“汇”景观在数量和类型方面差异的显著性,景观空间负荷对比指数的对比关系并不能良好地反映不同空间尺度上景观空间分异特征对水质影响的差异状况,因此必须 针对不同的研究尺度有选择的应用该方法来探讨景观空间分异特征对水质的影响程度。     

The frequency of ion-pair substructures in proteins is quantitatively related to electrostatic potential: a statistical model for nonbonded interactions

A statistical analysis of ion pairs in protein crystal structures shows that their abundance with respect to uncharged controls is accurately predicted by a Boltzmann-like function of electrostatic potential. It appears that the mechanisms of protein folding and/or evolution combine to produce a "thermal" distribution of local nonbonded interactions, as has been suggested by statistical-mechanical theories. Using this relationship, we develop a maximum likelihood methodology for estimation of apparent energetic parameters from the data base of known structures, and we derive electrostatic potential functions that lead to optimal agreement of observed and predicted ion-pair frequencies. These are similar to potentials of mean force derived from electrostatic theory, but departure from Coulombic behavior is less than has been suggested.     

The development and demise of a Medieval forest-meadow system at Linnaeus' birthplace in southern Sweden: implications for conservation and forest history

The rapid industrialisation of agriculture and forestry during the last century has contributed to a transformation of the forested landscape in southern Sweden. Palaeoecological investigation revealed how the Medieval forest-meadow system was created about 900 years ago from a deciduous forest type that had been rather stable for the previous 3000 years. The study site was a forest hollow close to where Linnaeus was born and brought up. The species-rich forest-meadow system suffered from over-grazing during the human-population peak of the nineteenth century, and was abandoned about one hundred years ago. The recent forest succession in southern Sweden has led to reduced floristic biodiversity and created conservation problems related to disappearance of open landscape, even though the remnant vegetation is moving towards the near-natural forest type. Spatially detailed palaeoecology permits documentation of baseline conditions, and places conservation debates in a valuable temporal perspective.     

退耕区域生态系统服务作用关系尺度效应及分异机制——以安塞区为例

生态系统服务的形成依赖于一定时空尺度上的生态过程。因此,探究生态系统服务在不同空间尺度的特征、关联和效应对于丰富生态系统服务的可持续管理具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。以典型退耕县域安塞区作为研究对象,基于生态模型定量评估了6项重要的生态系统服务,采用相关系数法、双变量空间自相关以及地理探测器揭示了不同空间尺度上生态系统服务作用关系的尺度效应及分异机制。研究结果显示：(1)退耕区域内,生态系统服务之间以协同关系为主,其中调节服务与支持服务的协同关系最强(|r|≥0.5),而权衡关系发生在文化服务与其他服务之间。从时间序列来看,调节服务与支持服务的作用关系较为稳定,在研究期间保持为协同关系,且协同度在退耕还林后有所提升;(2)生态系统服务作用关系的空间尺度效应主要表现在作用关系的方向变化与空间显著性的差异。在网格尺度中,生态系统服务之间的关系较为稳健,作用方向的变化主要发生在网格尺度与行政单元之间,且随研究尺度的加大,服务之间作用关系的空间显著性降低;(3)生态系统服务的权衡与协同是自然因子和社会因子共同作用的结果。退耕区人类活动干扰较小,自然因子的解释力(q均值0.1507)高于社会因子...     

Using genomics to guide seed‐sourcing at the right taxonomical level for ecological restoration projects: The complex case of Carex bigelowii s.lat. in Norway

There is a growing demand for ecological restoration using suitable seeds following international standards or national legal demands for local seed‐sourcing. However, before selecting the appropriate geographic origin of seeds, it is vital to explore taxonomic complexity related to the focal taxa. We used ddRAD‐seq to screen genomic diversity within Carex bigelowii s.lat. focussing on Norway. This species complex is considered a candidate for seeding, but presents considerable morphological, ecological, and genetic variation. The genetic structure of 132 individuals of C. bigelowii s.lat., including Carex nigra as an outgroup, was explored using ordinations, clustering analyses, and a genetic barrier algorithm. Two highly divergent clusters were evident, supporting the recognition of two taxonomic units “C. dacica” and C. bigelowii “subsp. bigelowii”. Previously defined seed‐sourcing regions for C. bigelowii s.lat. did not consider the known taxonomic complexity, and therefore interpreted the overall genetic structure as seed‐sourcing regions, not taxa. We estimated genetic neighborhood sizes within each taxon to be 100–150 km and 300 km, respectively, indicating species‐specific delimitations of local seed‐sourcing regions. Frequent hybrids, local genetic distinctiveness, and suggested ecotypes add complexity to the discussed seed‐sourcing regions. Our results show how genomic screening of diversity and structure in a species complex can alleviate the taxonomic impediment, inform practical questions, and legal requirements related to seed‐sourcing, and together with traditional taxonomic work provide necessary information for a sound management of biodiversity.     

The use of geostatistics and GIS for evolutionary history studies: the case of the nose‐horned viper (Vipera ammodytes) in the Balkan Peninsula

Geostatistics and geographical information system (GIS) procedures are novel techniques helpful for the identification of environmental correlates sustaining contact zones among subspecies or closely related species. In this paper, we tried to infer evolutionary scenarios for Vipera ammodytes across the European part of its distribution area using geostatistics and ecological niche‐based models, hence trying to solve several biogeographical questions that remained unclear after the application of classical morphological tools and genetic analyses. Eleven morphological traits from 871 vipers were analysed with geostatistics and ecological niche‐based modelling. Interpolation by kriging was used to generate surfaces of morphological variation, which were combined with spatial principal components analysis (SPCA). SPCA maps were used to test putative morphological differentiated groups with discriminant function analysis (DFA). Maximum entropy modelling and seven environmental variables were used to identify factors limiting the distribution of groups and areas for the potential occurrence of such groups. Three patterns of morphological variation were observed: a north‐west/south‐west cline, transition zones with steep clines of variation in a west–east arc, and particular character traits that disturbed the general cline. SPCA identified between three and nine putative population groups, of which three were supported by DFA. Areas of potential occurrence of these groups were coherent with the range of the three subspecies of V. ammodytes currently recognized. The distribution of all subspecies was mostly related to precipitation in the driest month. Areas of probable sympatry between subspecies are generally small and restricted. The main patterns of geographic variation of morphological characters for V. ammodytes were similar to the patterns obtained for Vipera latastei and Vipera monticola; the same environmental factors limit the distribution of differentiated groups of vipers in the Balkans and the Iberian Peninsula. The influence of humidity on the variation of morphological traits in spatially separated viper taxa from the two European peninsulas coincides with their phylogenetic relatedness. Geostatistics and GIS procedures were successful in the identification of environmental correlates sustaining contact zones among V. ammodytes subspecies in the Balkans. The same techniques should be applied for studying other parapatric forms and refugia regions. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 101 , 651–666.