Elasticity analysis as an important tool in evolutionary and population ecology

Elasticity analysis estimates the proportional change in the population growth rate for a proportional change in a vital rate (i.e. survival, growth or reproduction). It can be used to pinpoint those parts of an organism’s life history that should be the focus of management effort, or those that contribute most to fitness. Recent theoretical work has emphasized some limitations of the technique, has overcome other problems, and has shown that it is robust to some violations of its underlying assumptions. Thus, although care is needed, elasticity analysis is a simple first step in answering important questions in evolutionary and population ecology.     

Ruderality in extreme-desert cacti? Population effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbance on Echinocereus lindsayi

Ruderal species, i.e., those that increase their numbers in the presence of disturbance, are not expected to occur in extreme environments. We test whether Echinocereus lindsayi, a cactus from an extreme desert, follows the ruderal trend observed in similar species from mild deserts, or, as theory suggests, it is a non ruderal. Contrary to expectations, its density and fraction of small individuals in the population increased with disturbance. This seemingly results from increased establishment, as it is nursed by rocks exposed by disturbance. A demographic model for two populations, one nearly pristine and another highly disturbed, showed that at the latter site recruitment was more frequent and likely. At the disturbed site the performance of E. lindsayi individuals was usually poor, except on favorable years. Then, competition release caused by disturbance apparently allowed for a better performance compared to the less disturbed site. Despite that this opportunistic behavior would suffice to maintain the population size stable, the large mortality produced by an insect outbreak in two of the four study years caused the population to diminish. In contrast, the population at the less disturbed site was near equilibrium. If the insect outbreak is associated to disturbance, E. lindsayi at the disturbed site would be already experiencing more disturbance than it tolerates. This agrees with the fact that no populations were found at greater disturbance intensities. While, contrary to our hypothesis, E. lindsayi is ruderal, this extreme desert species appears to tolerate far less disturbance than its counterparts from milder areas.     

A euryhaline fish,lost in the desert: The unexpected metapopulation structure of Coptodon guineensis (Günther, 1862) in the Sebkha of Imlili

Euryhaline Cichlid fish of the species Coptodon guineensis are present in different water holes situated in a dried depression in the desert in the extreme South of Morocco, the Sebkha of Imlili. A genetic survey of this population, using complete sequences of the ND2 gene (mtDNA) and sixteen microsatellite loci, revealed that the fish in the sebkha did not form a single population, but rather a metapopulation. This metapopulational structure may be regarded as good news from the point of view of the conservation of fish in the sebkha. Although small individual populations may have short, finite life spans, the metapopulation as a whole is more stable, because immigrants from one population are likely to re-colonize the habitat, left open by the extinction of another.     

中国的濒危物种及其保护

重点分析了濒危物种的概念，确定原则，阐述了物种保护的三种基因类型，即自养保护、圈养保护和基因保护。简要介绍了国家自然科学基金资助的与物种保护有关的项目。初步探讨限各种不同保护类型中存在的重要科学问题、可能研究领域和方向，以促进我国物种保护和研究的发展。     

Viability and Management of an Endangered Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) Metapopulation in the Jura Mountains, Western Switzerland

The populations of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), the largest European grouse, have seriously declined during the last century over most of their distribution in western and central Europe. In the Jura mountains, the relict population is now isolated and critically endangered (about 500 breeding adults). We developed a simulation software (TetrasPool) that accounts for age and spatial structure as well as stochastic processes, to perform a viability analysis and explore management scenarios for this population, capitalizing on a 24 years-long series of field data. Simulations predict a marked decline and a significant extinction risk over the next century, largely due to environmental and demographic stochasticity (average values of life-history parameters would otherwise allow stability). Variances among scenarios mainly stem from uncertainties about the shape and intensity of density dependence. Uncertainty analyses suggest to focus conservation efforts on enhancing, not only adult survival (as often advocated for long-lived species), but also recruitment. The juvenile stage matters when local populations undergo extinctions, because it ensures connectivity and recolonization. Besides limiting human perturbations, a silvicultural strategy aimed at opening forest structure should improve the quality and surface of available patches, independent of their size and localization. Such measures are to be taken urgently, if the population is to be saved.     

非损伤性取样法在保护遗传学研究中的应用

通过对非损伤怀取样法的种类以及毛发的非损伤性取样分析方法、口腔脱落细胞的非损伤性取样分析方法、馆藏标本的非损伤性取样分析方法、粪便的非损伤性取样分析方法和其它样品的非损伤性取样分析方法的介绍,就非损伤取样法在保护遗传学中的应用及其优点、局限性和应用前景作了介绍、分析和讨论。     

The fast–slow continuum and mammalian life-history patterns: an empirical evaluation

The fast–slow continuum hypothesis has been proposed to explain the diversity of life-history patterns exhibited by biological populations, but the quantification and population-dynamic consequences of the continuum has remained unclear. I used the ratio of fertility rate to age at first reproduction (F/α ratio) to quantify the tempo of life-history of 138 populations of mammals, and investigated the life-history and population-dynamic consequences of being “fast” or “slow”. “Fast” mammals (F/α>0.60) were characterized by early maturity, short lifespans, low survival rates, and high fertility and projected population growth rate (λ) compared to “slow” (F/α<0.15) mammals. In “fast” populations, λ was overwhelmingly most sensitive to changes in reproductive parameters (age at first reproduction and fertility rates) and relatively insensitive to changes in survival rates. In “slow” populations, λ was very sensitive to changes in juvenile or adult survival rates, and relatively insensitive to changes in reproductive parameters. The pattern of relationships between the F/α ratio and life-history variables, λ, and elasticity of λ to changes in life-history variables persisted even after the effects of body size and phylogeny were statistically removed. These results suggest that fast–slow continuum in mammalian life-history is independent of body size or phylogeny, that the F/α ratio adequately quantifies the position of a population along a fast–slow continuum, and that the tempo of life- histories has substantial population-dynamic consequences.

Zusammenfassung

Die r-K-Kontinuum-Hypothese wurde aufgestellt, um die Diversität von ,,life-history“-Mustern biologischer Populationen zu erklären, aber die Quantifizierung und die Kosnsequenzen für die Populationsdynamik des Kontinuums blieben unklar. Ich benutze das verhältnis der Fortpflanzungsrate zum Fortpflanzungsalter (F/α-Verhältnis) um die Geschwindigkeit der ,,life-history“ von 138 Populationen von Säugetieren zu quantifizieren und untersuchte die Konsequenzen fur die Lebensweise sowie die Populationsdynamik des,,schnell“oder,,langsam “-Seins. ,,Schnelle“Säugetiere (F/α>0.60) waren durch eine frühe Reife, kurze Lebenszeiten, geringe Überlebensraten sowie durch eine große Fertilität und hochgerechnete Populationswachstumsrate (λ) im Vergleich zu ,,langsamen“(F/α<0.15) Säugetieren charakterisiert. In ,,schnellen“ Population reagierte (λ) überwältigend sensibel auf Änderungen in den Fortpflanzungsparametern (Fortpflanzunsalter und Fertilitätsrate) und relativ gering auf Veräanderungen in der Überlebensrate. In ,,langsamen“ Populationen reagierte (λ) sehr sensibel auf Veräanderungen in den reproduktiven Parametern. Das Muster der Beziehung zwischen dem (F/α-Verhältnis) und den Variablen der ,,life-history“,λ, und die Elastizität von λ gegenüber Veränderungen in den variablen der Lebensweise bliev sogar bestehen, nachdem die Effekte von Körpergröße und Phylogenese statistisch eliminiert wurden. Diese Ergebnisse lassen vermuten, dass das r-K-Kontinuum in der ,,life-history“der Säugetiere unabhängig von der Körpergröße und Phylogenie ist, dass das F/α-Verhältnis die Position einer Population im r-K-Kontinuum quantifiziert und dass die Geschwindigkeit der,,life-history“beachtliche konsequenzen fur die Populationsdynamik hat.     

Limited genetic structure and evidence for dispersal among populations of the endangered Florida grasshopper sparrow, Ammodramus savannarum floridanus

The Florida grasshopper sparrow, Ammodramus savannarum floridanus, is a non-migratory, endangered subspecies endemic to the prairie region of south-central Florida. It has experienced significant population declines and is currently restricted to five locations. We found substantial levels of variation in microsatellites and mtDNA control region sequences, estimates of inbreeding genetic effective population sizes that were much larger than the estimated census size, and no evidence of inbreeding within five sampled populations (n = 105). We also found a lack of genetic structure among populations (F _ST = 0.0123 for microsatellites and θ = 0.008 for mtDNA), and evidence for dispersal between populations, with 7.6% of all individuals identified as immigrants to their population of capture. We suggest that the subspecies be managed as a single management unit on a regional scale rather than as multiple management units on a local subpopulation scale. There is still a limited opportunity to preserve much of the present genetic variation in this subspecies, if immediate measures are taken to reverse the current population decline before this variation is reduced by genetic drift.     

Demography of the cycad Ceratozamia mirandae (Zamiaceae) under disturbed and undisturbed conditions in a biosphere reserve of Mexico

The cycad Ceratozamia mirandae is endemic to Chiapas, Mexico. Demographic studies were made in two of its populations in the Sepultura Biosphere Reserve under different conservation conditions; in the nucleus zone “Tres Picos” (conserved) and buffer zone “La Sombra” (disturbed and under management). Spatial distribution of C. mirandae was aggregated, showed a clumped local distribution on shallow soils on steep slopes and male and female cones appear to be synchronous in both populations. The population structure was of type I (Bongers) for both sites. Individuals between the sites showed differences in growth pattern. The oldest plants (80–90 cm tall) were estimated to be about 490 years at “La Sombra”. The finite growth rate () in the buffer zone population showed a tendency for decrease whilst in the nucleus zone this estimate remained stable. The highest elasticity values lied in the transition of the first three classes of the “La Sombra” population, in “Tres Picos” this corresponded to adult plants between 20 and 30 cm tall. Given the above, it is proposed that in the nucleus zone, reproductive adults should be of highest conservation priority, whereas in the buffer zone seedling reintroduction should be carried out regularly until the population increases. We recommend an IUCN Red List category of Vulnerable (VU C, 2a), largely due to difficult-to-control destructive annual forest fires that occur in this Reserve.     

Population genetic study of the U.S. federally listed Illinois cave amphipod, Gammarus acherondytes

Worldwide, conservation personnel must balance the needs of endangered species and humans. Studies that provide information of a species’ genetic structure can identify conservation units and help prioritize populations. We used a region of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene to examine the population genetics of the U.S. federally listed Illinois cave amphipod, Gammarus acherondytes. Eleven unique haplotypes were identified from nine populations in two hydrologically separate subregions, each of which contained genetically distinct populations. This conclusion is based on (i) subregions form clades in the interspecific phylogeographic analyses; (ii) the between-subregions component in the Analysis of Molecular Variance accounted for a significant fraction (81.45%) of the genetic variation; and (iii) no haplotypes were shared between subregions. These results coincide with the known distribution of G. acherondytes and regional hydrology. We recommend future recovery efforts avoid mixing individuals between subregions to prevent the breakdown of local adaptive gene complexes.     

Assessing re-introductions of the African Wild dog (Lycaon pictus) in the Limpopo Valley Conservancy, South Africa, using the stochastic simulation program VORTEX

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is one of Africa's most endangered species and therefore classified as endangered by IUCN. Earlier distributions included most of Africa but currently the African wild dog only has populations larger than 300 individuals in three countries (Botswana, Tanzania and South Africa). In 1998, a plan was launched in South Africa to manage sub-populations of the African wild dog in several small, geographically isolated, conservation areas. This management program involved the reintroduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. We used the stochastic population simulation model VORTEX to evaluate the Limpopo Valley Conservancy in the north of South Africa, as a possible reintroduction site for African wild dogs. The simulations showed that the size of the initial population released only had a small effect on the population dynamics. However, when individuals were supplemented and harvested over a longer period the probability of persistence increased. Number of females breeding, male mortality, and carrying capacity were key factors in the population dynamics, but according to VORTEX the severity of natural catastrophes had the greatest influence on the extinction risk and inbreeding. We suggest that the reintroduction program may be successful, if areas are properly secured, the dogs are held in a boma before release, wild animals or at least a mix of wild and captive animals are used for the release and the animals are vaccinated against rabies. It is, however, essential to continue monitoring followed by modelling efforts to re-evaluate the success of the reintroduction program.     

植物种群生存力分析研究进展

对十多年来国外植物PVA的研究进行了综合评述;具体分析了影响植物种群生存力的各种随机性因子及确定性因子;总结了植物PVA研究的方法步骤及采用的模拟模型;探讨了植物PVA的难点,PVA对管理措施的评价效果;并提出对今后植物PVA的研究展望,认为PVA是研究濒危植物种群灭绝及评价管理或保护措施的有力工具;发展描述复杂种间关系的多种种的PVA模型以及包含多个影响因素的PVA应用模型是未来植物PVA的研究方向。     

马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群生存力模拟分析

采用漩涡模型Vortex mondel 713 , 模拟了马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群在未来100年内的变动趋势。结果显示: 在无交配限制、无密度制约、无近亲交配衰退等条件下, 马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群数量呈下降趋势; 在考虑近交衰退的影响后, 遗传多样性水平降低, 灭绝率提高; 竹子开花虽能加速大熊猫种群的绝灭, 但由于保护区分布有多个竹种,因此并不会对大熊猫种群产生灾难性影响; 但是人为捕杀可迅速减少大熊猫种群数量, 加速其灭绝过程。因此, 对该保护区大熊猫进行保护的最重要措施就是严格控制人为捕杀, 并保护栖息地及走廊带。     

Extinction threats of a narrowly endemic shrub, Stachyurus macrocarpus (Stachyuraceae) in the Ogasawara Islands

Stachyurus macrocarpus is a narrowly endemic endangered shrub of which only one population remains on Chichi-jima Island (Ogasawara). We surveyed its population dynamics and reproductive states for 4 years and analyzed the population viability. In a survey of its entire distribution range, a total of 87 S. macrocarpus individuals have been found and 68 individuals have been confirmed in 2007. Thus, the actual population size is estimated to be less than 100 individuals. Environmental conditions and the results of a hand-pollination experiment suggest that low fruit setting in both sexes (female: 4.9–11.2%; hermaphrodite: 0.0%) may be caused by resource limitation. In addition, fruit predation by alien Rattus rattus was observed despite the rare fruit setting. The small effective population size (23.1–24.6 individuals) and hermaphrodite-biased sex ratio (46 hermaphrodites:12 females) would increase the risk of extinction. The habitat of S. macrocarpus was limited to dense scrubland and forest understory, and seedling regeneration was very scarce. During the survey period, 19 individuals (21.8%) were found dead, there were only two seedling recruitments, and the annual population growth rate was 0.979. The lack of occurrence on the south and west slopes and the shortness of shrubs in open spaces suggests that S. macrocarpus suffers stress from both dryness and frequent typhoons. However, S. macrocarpus also exhibited high mortality of shoot in forest understories. These findings suggest that the suitable habitat of S. macrocarpus is likely to be narrow in Ogasawara. While the recent increase of goat grazing has not affected individual mortality, 58.6% of shoots that had been grazed by goats were dead within 2 years. As elasticity analysis had shown that larger individuals make a greater contribution to the population growth rate, repeated goat grazing would impact the S. macrocarpus population in the near future by decreasing the vitality of larger individuals. Emergency measures for protecting the shrub from goat grazing and reinforcing the population through nursery cultivation were proposed.