Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change

Data series for bud burst, beginning of flowering and petal fall for 20 species of deciduous trees and conifers at four sites in different regions of southern Norway have been analysed and related to temperature series. On average, the spring phenophases occurred 7 days earlier during the period 1971-2005. The most significant linear trends were observed for the earliest phases. The trends in this period were compared with trends in other periods, the longest one starting in 1927. Those starting in cold decades and ending in 2005 were in most instances statistically significant, whereas hardly any significant trend appeared for series starting in warm decades. This fact showed that the results of trend studies are very sensitive to the choice of starting year. There were significant decadal variations in 40% of the series. The dates of occurrence of the phenophases, varying from the first days of May to the first days of June, correlated with seasonal temperature series, in most cases strongest to mean temperatures for the seasons March-May and April-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) for January and February appeared to have some predictive power for the date of occurrence of the recorded phases. The basis for this may be that the oscillations described by the index are of importance for the fulfilment of physiological chilling requirements needed to break bud dormancy. The same genotypes of the trees were grown in region West Norway and in Central Norwegian region; during the period 1965-2005 the trends towards earlier bud burst were more pronounced and steeper at the western site.     

气候变化背景下橡胶树物候研究进展

橡胶树(Heveabrasiliensis)是广布于热带地区的经济林木,是战略物资天然橡胶的主要来源,其物候学的研究对胶园生产管理和评估热带地区植被对全球气候变化的响应方面具有重要意义。早期的物候研究主要服务于苗木繁育、割胶规划和抗逆栽培等生产应用;利用遥感监测植被物候日趋成熟,已广泛应用于橡胶树并成为主流的物候监测方法;橡胶树物候具有明显的时空异质性,对气候变化的响应较为复杂,其中温度和降水是关键影响因子,同时内因(品系、基因和树龄等)和外因(种植密度、地理位置和农业措施等)也共同影响了其物候。为更好服务天然橡胶产业的可持续发展和热区气候变化科学研究,未来的橡胶树物候研究应重点关注多源遥感数据的协同重建、物候指标提取算法的普适化和遥感预测模型的精准化。该文系统梳理了橡胶树物候的监测方法、服务价值、时空格局,提出了存在问题及未来研究方向。     

Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA

We evaluated spring phenology changes from 1965 to 2001 in northeastern USA utilizing a unique data set from 72 locations with genetically identical lilac plants (Syringa chinensis, clone Red Rothomagensis). We also utilized a previously validated lilac-honeysuckle spring index model to reconstruct a more complete record of first leaf date (FLD) and first flower date (FFD) for the region from historical weather data. In addition, we examined mid-bloom dates for apple (Malus domestica) and grape (Vitis vinifera) collected at several sites in the region during approximately the same time period. Almost all lilac sites with significant linear trends for FLD or FFD versus year had negative slopes (advanced development). Regression analysis of pooled data for the 72 sites indicated an advance of –0.092 day/year for FFD (P=0.003). The slope for FLD was also negative (–0.048 day/year), but not significant (P=0.234). The simulated data from the spring index model, which relies on local daily temperature records, indicated highly significant (P<0.001) negative slopes of –0.210 and –0.123 day/year for FLD and FFD, respectively. Data collected for apple and grape also indicated advance spring development, with slopes for mid-bloom date versus year of –0.20 day/year (P=0.01) and –0.146 (P=0.14), respectively. Collectively, these results indicate an advance in spring phenology ranging from 2 to 8 days for these woody perennials in northeastern USA for the period 1965 to 2001, qualitatively consistent with a warming trend, and consistent with phenology shifts reported for other mid- and high-latitude regions.     

How consistent are trends in arrival (and departure) dates of migrant birds in the UK?

We examine the first arrival and last departure dates of migrant bird species from, respectively, six and three English area bird reports. Of all 145 bird series, 50% demonstrated significantly earlier arrival in recent years, with the average advance over all species being 0.25 days/year or 12 days earlier over 50 years. Thirty percent of 67 series demonstrated significantly later departure, with the average species delay being 0.16 days/year or eight days later over 50 years. There was greater consistency between species in trends in first arrival than in last departure, with species such as sand martin Riparia riparia significantly earlier at all six sites while, for example, spotted flycatcher Muscicapa striata showed no significant change in arrival at all sites. Significant negative correlations between arrival dates and English temperatures were found for 26% of all series, but temperature effects on departures were less clear. We provide some evidence that trends in arrival dates may be masked by population declines in birds. Since migrant bird populations are in decline generally, this may suggest that the real advance in arrival dates may be greater than that reported here.     

What affects the magnitude of change in first arrival dates of migrant birds?

We analysed which among four factors (mean first arrival date, migration distance, changes in population size, detectability of species) influenced the magnitude of change (regression coefficient) in the first arrival dates of 30 migrant bird species in western Poland during 1983–2003. An examination suggested that several of these factors could be important: the regression coefficient was positively related to mean first arrival date (early species advancing their arrival date more) and negatively with change in population size (species in decline changing less). Moreover, significant differences in regression coefficient were detected between short and long distance migrants and between low detectable and highly detectable species. Undertaking a principal components analysis on the four factors produced an axis explaining 59% of the variance and whose positive values were associated with late arriving, long distance and low detectable species which were more likely to be in decline. However, the multi-collinearity of these factors is a problem that cannot be resolved here and we recommend that further work from different areas is needed to tease apart these effects.     

Sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology in North European songbird populations

This study aims to investigate causes and mechanisms controlling protandrous migration patterns (the earlier breeding area arrival of males relative to females) and inter-sexual differences in timing of migration in relation to the recent climate-driven changes in phenology. Using standardised ringing data from a single site for eight North European migratory passerines collected throughout 22 years, we analysed sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology of the entire populations. Our results show protandrous patterns for the first as well as later arriving individuals for all studied species. Males show more synchronous migration patterns compared to females and, hence, first arriving females followed males more closely than later arriving individuals. However, we found no inter-sexual differences in arrival trends as both sexes advance spring arrival over time with the largest change for the first arriving individuals. These findings seem in support of the “mate opportunity” hypothesis, as the arrival of males and females is strongly coupled and both sexes seem to compete for early arrival. Changes in timing of arrival in males and females as a response to climatic changes may influence subsequent mating decisions, with subsequent feedbacks on population dynamics such as reproductive success and individual fitness. However, during decades of consistent earlier spring arrival in all phases of migration we found no evidence of inter-sexual phenological differences.     

Timing of deacclimation affects the ability to recover from simulated winter herbivory

The ability of Vaccinium myrtillus L. to recover from simulated winter herbivory has been investigated on different plants which had been exposed to three elevated temperatures (5 °C, 10 °C or 20 °C) for four weeks in a greenhouse environment. After herbivory, number and length of new aerial shoots and number of leaves/shoot increased faster in plants kept at 5 °C and 10 °C than in those kept at 20 °C. In the following autumn, however, only the shoot number differed between treatments, being greatest in plants of treatments at 5 °C and 10 °C and lowest at 20 °C and the outdoor control. Apparently the plants kept at 20 °C had already used their resources for growth before herbivory simulation, which reduced their recovery ability thereafter. In addition, the growing season was too short for the control plants to produce as many new shoots as the treatments. The results show that the recovery of V. myrtillus from winter herbivory is rapid if it occurs before growth has started. Hence the earlier onset of spring as a consequence of climate warming may not be fatal for the plant, unless the temperature increase triggers growth to start many months earlier than normal.     

Testing biological control agent compatibility: Cyphocleonus achates and Larinus minutus on diffuse knapweed

While weed biological control success is typically achieved with one agent, multiple agents are invariably introduced. Biological control agents that share a host–plant may interact either directly or indirectly through changes in host–plant quality. Negative interactions could reduce the impacts of the agents on the density of their host–plant while positive interactions (facilitation) could improve biological control success.In the Okanagan Valley of British Columbia, Canada, initial declines in the invasive rangeland weed, diffuse knapweed (Centaurea diffusa) were attributed to the introduction of the weevil Larinus minutus. A second weevil, Cyphocleonus achates has recently become common on diffuse knapweed. We sought to determine if the recent increase of C. achates could threaten the success of L. minutus. We considered whether L. minutus colonisation or performance remained the same when C. achates was present, and whether the two agents acted independently to reduce plant performance.Neither changes in colonisation rates nor competitive interactions were apparent between C. achates and L. minutus. Both insects reduced plant performance and, for all metrics, the reduction in plant performance by one species was independent of the second. The two agents appear to be compatible and both should contribute to the control of diffuse knapweed. To assess how biological control agents interact requires understanding both their competitive interactions and their joint effects on the shared host.     

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes,migratory distance,and arrival distributions

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979–2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.     

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5–20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10–30 days in the spring period. Estonia’s average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.     

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962–2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951–2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.     

Response of birds to climatic variability; evidence from the western fringe of Europe

Ireland’s geographic location on the western fringe of the European continent, together with its island status and impoverished avifauna, provides a unique opportunity to observe changes in bird migration and distribution patterns in response to changing climatic conditions. Spring temperatures have increased in western Europe over the past 30 years in line with reported global warming. These have been shown, at least in part, to be responsible for changes in the timing of life cycle events (phenology) of plants and animals. In order to investigate the response of bird species in Ireland to changes in temperature, we examined ornithological records of trans-Saharan migrants over the 31-year period 1969–1999. Analysis of the data revealed that two discrete climatic phenomena produced different responses in summer migrant bird species. Firstly, a number of long-distance migrants showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival. This trend was evident in some species and was found to be a response to increasing spring air temperature particularly in the month of March. Secondly, (1) a step change in the pattern of occurrences of non-breeding migrant bird species, and (2) an increase in the ringing data of migrant species were found to correlate with a step change in temperature in 1987–1988. These results indicate that, for migrant bird species, the impact of a sudden change in temperature can be as important as any long-term monotonic trend, and we suggest that the impact of step change events merits further investigation on a wider range of species and across a greater geographical range.     

Warming and drought alter soil phosphatase activity and soil P availability in a Mediterranean shrubland

We conducted a field experiment simulating the warming and drought in a Mediterranean shrubland dominated by Erica multiflora and Globularia alypum with the aim to simulate the next future climate conditions predicted by the IPCC and ecophysiological models. As P is frequently a limiting nutrient in Mediterranean ecosystems, we investigated the drought and warming effects on soil phosphatases activities, soil P contents and availability, litter and leaf P concentration, and the capacity of this community to maintain soil P reserves and retain this nutrient in the ecosystem. Warming treatment increased soil and air temperature (an average of 1°C) and drought treatment decreased soil water content in one of the seasons analysed (28% in autum 2004). Warming increased (68%) the activities of soil acid phosphatases in summer and alkaline phosphatase activity (22%) in spring 2004, and increased P concentrations in E. multiflora. Instead, warming decreased P concentrations in litterfall of this same species, E. multiflora, and soil HCO₃-extractable P_i (Olsen-P_i) in some seasons, decreasing total P soil concentration (37%) after 6 years of treatment. The drought treatment did not change soil phosphatase activities, nor available P_i. The effects of climate change on soil P dynamics in Mediterranean areas will thus be strongly dependent on whether the main variable involved in the local change is warming or drought. If warming is the main change without significant changes in water availability, the increases of biological activity can accelerate plant growth, P capture by plants and increase soil-phosphatase activity, altogether decreasing P contents in soil. If drought is the main change, a reduction in P demands by plants is expected, increasing P stocks in soils.     

Changes in phenology of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) in Hungary

 Intense research is being carried out on climate variability and change and the estimation and detection of anthropogenic effects. In addition to statistical methods, the use of plants, as biological indicators is becoming more popular as they are sensitive to environmental conditions. In this article we compare maps of the flowering dates of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) for three different time intervals between 1851 and 1994. The maps revealed noticeable shifts of dates, of approximately 3–8 days, towards earlier flowering. This change is related to the average temperature of spring (15 March–15 May), via a simple statistical model that is accurate enough to be able to quantify phenological changes and to calculate the corresponding warming. The model developed can estimate spring mean temperature using phenological data from R. pseudoacacia L. with an accuracy of 0.2° C. Estimates of mean temperature based on phenological changes are compared to climatic series. This comparison emphasizes the possibility of using R. pseudoacacia. L. as a bio-indicator. Estimates of temperature changes are also given. Received: 5 August 1996 / Revised: 14 April 1997 / Accepted: 11 November 1997     

An examination of the relationship between flowering times and temperature at the national scale using long-term phenological records from the UK

This paper examines the mean flowering times of 11 plant species in the British Isles over a 58-year period, and the flowering times of a further 13 (and leafing time of an additional 1) for a reduced period of 20 years. Timings were compared to Central England temperatures and all 25 phenological events were significantly related (P<0.001 in all but 1 case) to temperature. These findings are discussed in relation to other published work. The conclusions drawn from this work are that timings of spring and summer species will get progressively earlier as the climate warms, but that the lower limit for a flowering date is probably best determined by examining species phenology at the southern limit of their distribution. Received: 21 October 1999 / Revised: 27 January 2000 / Accepted: 27 January 2000     

Phenological stages of natural species and their use as climate indicators

 The objectives of this paper are to: (1) present 10 years of phenological data for nine natural species growing in a Mediterranean-type climate, (2) present threshold temperatures that were derived for the computation of cumulative degree-days (CDD), and (3) evaluate the sensitivity of the nine natural species to weather variability. The study was conducted at the Phenological Research Garden of Oristano, Sardinia, Italy, during the period 1986–96. The observations were made on five typical Mediterranean species and four species that are typical of higher latitudes. The mean annual pattern of phenological events and the CDD from 1 January are given for each development stage. Temperature thresholds were evaluated by comparing the standard deviation about the mean number of days in the development period for each species. A good relationship between timing of phenophase occurrence and temperature was observed for the Mediterranean species, which were little affected by variations in rainfall. Phenological development of the non-native species was affected by springtime rainfall. Accepted: 28 October 1998